The 2006 (Мw 8.3) and 2007 (Мw 8.1) Simushir Earthquakes and the 2011 Tohoku Megaearthquake (Мw 9.0): Tectonic Stresses and Development of the Seismic Process

The peculiarities of catastrophic earthquakes that occurred in the Northwest Pacific region on January 13, 2007, and January 15, 2007, east of the Kuril Islands and the Tohoku megaearthquake of March 11, 2011, east of Japan are considered and analyzed. It is revealed that these earthquakes, apart from the fact that they occurred in the transition zone from the Pacific to island arcs and the Eurasian continent, have common features and similar characteristics. The seismotectonic slip in the source of the chronologically first event, the 2006 Kuril earthquake, was a gentle thrust, while that of the second event of January 13, 2007, was a downthrow beneath the Kuril deep trench.     

Source zones of the catastrophic Simushir earthquakes on November 15, 2006 (M w = 8.3) and January 13, 2007 (M w = 8.1) and the deep crust structure beneath the Middle Kuril segment

The data on catastrophic earthquakes with magnitudes of 8.3 and 8.1 that occurred in the Simushir Island area on November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007, respectively, were compared with the results of land-sea deep seismic studies by different methods (deep seismic sounding, the correlation method of refracted waves, the earthquake converted-wave method, the common mid-point) in the Central Kuril segment. The structure of the Earth’s crust and the hypocentral zones of these earthquakes were analyzed. It was established that the hypocenter of the main shock of the first earthquake was located at the bend of the seismofocal zone under the island slope of the trench on the outer side of the subsiding lithospheric plate in the rapidly rising granulite-basite (ìbasalticî) crustal layer, which, at depths of 7–15 km, replaced the granulite-gneiss layer. This was accompanied by an increase of the seismic wave velocity from 6.4 to 7.1 km/s. The focus of the second earthquake was located beneath the axis of the deep-sea trench. The aftershocks were concentrated in two bands 60–120 km wide that extend along the trench, as well as in the third zone orthogonal to the island arc. It was shown that the epicenters of the earthquakes are linked with regional faults. The main shock of the first earthquake (November 15, 2006) was interpreted as a thrust fault and the second one (January 13, 2007) was attributed to a normal fault.     

Recent geodynamics of the Kuril subduction zone

The collected GPS/GLONASS data allow us to reveal new information on the recent geodynamics of the Kuril Island arc. The maximum deformation stress accumulates in the southern and northern parts of the study area, while a long fading transition process of postseismic motions is observed in the central segment of the Kuril arc as a result of the 2006–2007 great Simushir earthquakes of M _w = 8.3 and M _w = 8.1. We have succeeded in revealing the recent interplate coupling geometry of the Pacific and the North American lithospheric plates and also in estimating the seismic potential of different segments of the Kuril subduction zone.     

Nine unusually large tsunami deposits from the past 4000 years at Kiritappu marsh along the southern Kuril Trench

Large earthquakes along the Kuril subduction zone in northern Japan are known to have caused damaging tsunami, although there is a little information on historical earthquakes and tsunami in this area because no documents exist before the 19th century that might refer to tsunami events. To determine the likely timing and size of future events we need information on their recurrence intervals and to do this for the prehistoric past we have investigated sediments located in the Kiritappu marsh in eastern Hokaido that we interpret as laid down by tsunami. Using reliable multiple lines of evidence from sedimentological, geomorphological, micropaleontological, and chronological results, we identify 13 tsunami sands. Two of these lie within a peat bed above a historical tephra, Ta-a (AD 1739); the upper one probably corresponds to the AD 1843 Tempo Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.2) tsunami, and the lower to either the AD 1952 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M 8.2) tsunami or the AD 1960 Chilean earthquake (M 9.5) tsunami. Underlying are 11 prehistoric tsunami sand beds (nine large sand beds and two smaller sand beds) deposited during the past 4000 years. Because of the wide spatial distribution of the large sand beds, and inundation distances inland of between 1200 to 3000 m, we suggest that they record unusually large tsunamis along the Kuril subduction zone. According to our analyses, these tsunami sands were derived from the coastal area and, although they do not show clear graded bedding, they commonly have gradational upper boundaries and erosional bases and include internal sedimentary structures such as plane beds, dunes, and current ripples, reflecting bedload transportation. Based on our results we calculate the recurrence interval of unusually large earthquakes (probably M 8.6) along the Kuril subduction zone as about 365–553 years and estimate the youngest large event to have occurred in the 17th century.     

Formalized analysis of crustal seismicity in the Sikhote Alin orogen and adjacent areas

The fractal dimension of the epicentral field of earthquakes (D = 1.6) is determined for the Sikote Alin orogen and adjacent areas. According to this parameter, the region occupies the position between the Kamchatka Peninsula, Kuril Islands (1.61 and 1.69), the East China area, and the Lake Baikal region (1.55 and 1.40). Differentiation of the studied area based on the fractal dimension of the number of earthquakes and on the released energy calculated per unit square shows that the most active crustal areas are associated with the Kharpi–Kur–Priamur’e zone of the northeastern orientation, which is the northern segment of the Tan-Lu transregional fault system. Analysis of the time series of seismic events (MLH ≥ 2.4) in the Sikhote Alin and adjacent areas in the period from 1960 to 2013 shows that the “harmonic” with a 10.5-year period is most clearly displayed. This period (11–13 years) was previously distinguished by B.V. Levin and coauthors from the study of the largest number of earthquakes with M ≥ 4.4 for the period of 1971–2003.     

可可西里——东昆仑活动构造带强震活动研究

青海昆仑山口西 8.1级地震发生在具有新生性特征的可可西里—东昆仑活动断裂带上。该断裂带在 190 0年以来的 10 0多年中经历了一个强震活动过程。在该强震活动过程中 ,地震沿整个可可西里—东昆仑活动构造带分段破裂 ,强震的破裂长度和震级之间大致满足对数线性的统计关系 ,强震活动呈现指数型时间分布的加速特征。这种强震加速活动特征可以用含多个震源体的孕震系统的强震成组活动模型给予解释。     

Static stress changes induced by the 1924 Pasinler (M = 6.8) and 1983 Horasan-Narman (M = 6.8) earthquakes, Northeastern Turkey

The 1924 Pasinler & 1983 Horasan-Narman earthquakes which struck the Erzurum region occurred on the NE–SW-trending Horasan fault zone about 60 km east of Erzurum basin. The inversion of teleseismic seismograms, the aftershock pattern and the surface faulting of the 30 October 1983 ( M _s = 6.8) Horasan-Narman earthquake indicate that it had dominantly left-lateral motion. One moderately sized aftershock occurred 8 h after the main event and two others a year later on the NE extension of the fault zone. The aftershock distribution dominantly overlapped with the Horasan fault zone, and the aftershocks also migrated from south-west to north-east within the year following the mainshock. The results obtained from modelling of static stress changes caused by the 1983 earthquake are consistent with the spatial distribution of aftershocks. Macroseismic observations of the 1924 earthquake ( M _s = 6.8) indicated that this event occurred on the SW extension of the Horasan fault zone. Static stress modelling of the 1924 earthquake, by using the same input parameters of the 1983 event, has shown that its occurrence increased the stress in the region of the 1983 rupture zone. The static stress changes caused both by the 1924 and the 1983 earthquakes has increased the failure stress at the NE and SW extensions of the Horasan fault zone and in Narman area. Furthermore, the stress has decreased in the vicinity of the Erzurum fault zone, east of the city of Erzurum, the largest city in eastern Turkey, and in the populated Sarikamis area. This might delay the occurrence of a future probable damaging earthquake in these areas.     

Fluid-Controlling Significance of the Nosappu Fracture Zone and Conditions for the Formation of Methane Fluxes and Gas Hydrates (Sea of Okhotsk Region)

It has been observed that the intensity of underwater gas flares unexpectedly increased after the deep-focus (625.9 km) earthquake that occurred in the Sea of Okhotsk on August 14, 2012. In this regard, we have analyzed the data resulting from interpretation of the focal mechanism for the strike-slip earthquakes which occurred in the Benioff seismic zone of the subducting Pacific Plate within the Sea of Okhotsk region over the period from 1977 to 2010. The NNW sinistral and NE dextral faults are found to form a conjugate system due to the WNW stress field. We have established that the dextral faults are mostly common at a depth of about 200 km along the Kuril Islands extension, while the sinistral ones are concentrated in the Nosappu Fracture Zone and traced to the NNW down to a depth of 680 km. The area of the gas flare discharge and gas hydrate accumulations have the same (NNW) direction. Thus, we have revealed that the Nosappu Fracture Zone appears to be a structure which controls fluid fluxes, providing permeability of the subducting slab of the Pacific Plate for ascending fluids from the lower mantle.     

Seismotectonic significance of the 29 January 1989 Etne earthquake, SW Norway

The integrated analysis of geological, seismological and field observations with lineament data derived from satellite images allows the identification of a possible seismogenic fault zone for an earthquake which occurred near Etne in southwestern Norway, on 29 February 1989. The hypocentre of the earthquake was located at the mid-crust at a depth of 13.8±0.9 km which is typical of small intraplate earthquakes. The Etne earthquake occurred as a result of normal faulting with a dextral strike-slip component on a NW–SE trending fault. Available geological and lineament data indicate correlation of the inferred seismogenic fault with the NW–SE trending Etne fault zone. An aeromagnetic anomaly related to the Etne fault zone forms a regional feature intersecting both Precambrian basement and allochthonous Caledonian rocks. Based on these associations the occurrence of the Etne event is ascribed to the reactivation of a zone of weakness along the Etne fault zone. Slope-instabilities developed in the superficial deposits during the Etne event demonstrate the existence of potentially hazardous secondary-effects of such earthquakes even in low seismicity areas such as southwestern Norway.     

Surface fault traces and fault plane solutions of the May–June 1978 major shocks in the Thessaloniki area, Greece.

It is shown that the foci of the recent earthquakes in the Thessaloniki area of northern Greece are located in an arcuate seismic zone which is associated with the Serbomacedonian geologic zone. Three main lines of fracture have been observed in the epicentral area after the May–June 1978 earthquakes. Field and macroseismic observations as well as fault plane solutions for the main shock and for the largest foreshock show that both earthquakes are due to a strike slip sinistral motion with a small reverse component on a steeply dipping and trending southeast-northwest fault.     

Is it possible to detect earlier ionospheric precursors before large earthquakes using principal component analysis (PCA)?

The goal of this study was to determine whether principal component analysis (PCA) can be used to process GPS ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data on a monthly basis to identify early earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. PCA is applied to GPS (mean value of a month) ionospheric TEC records collected from the Japan GEONET system to detect TEC anomalies associated with 10 earthquakes in Japan (M?≥?6.0) from 2006 to 2007. According to the results, PCA was able to discriminate clear TEC anomalies in the months when all 10 earthquakes occurred. After reviewing the months when no M?≥?6.0 earthquake occurred but the geomagnetic storm activity was present, it is possible that the maximal principal eigenvalues PCA returned for these 10 earthquakes indicate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. Previously, PCA has been used to discriminate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies recognized by other researchers who found that a statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies could be established in the 5 days before earthquake nucleation and in 24 h before earthquake; however, since PCA uses the characteristics of principal eigenvalues to determine earthquake-related TEC anomalies, it is possible to show that such anomalies existed earlier than this 5-day statistical window. In this paper, this is shown through the application of PCA to one-dimensional TEC data relating to the earthquake of 17 February 2007 (M?=?6.0). The analysis is applied to daily TEC and reveals a large principal eigenvalue (representative of an earthquake-associated anomaly) for 02 February, 15 days before the 17 February earthquake.     

Joint hypocentre determination of intermediate depth earthquakes in Fiordland, New Zealand

Relocation of well observed, intermediate depth earthquakes in the Fiordland region by the method of joint hypocentre determination has revealed some fine structure in the Benioff zone. The earthquakes occur in three groups. The central group is the largest and occupies a planar volume less than 15 km thick striking N40°E and dipping at 80°. The deepest events in the region, at depths of 150 km, occur at the northeast end of this group. The two smaller groups lie to the northeast and to the south of the main group. The focal mechanism of the majority of the main group is that of thrust faulting. We suggest that the main group lies within a section of Indian plate lithosphere which has been broken off and rotated into its observed position and that the northern edge of the unbroken subducted Indian plate is indicated by the southern group. We suggest that the small northeastern group has quite a different tectonic origin and is similar to a group of earthquakes further north which are at a similar distance from, and presumably related to, the Alpine Fault.Use has also been made of the travel-time information which is a by-product of the joint hypocentre method to construct upper mantle velocity models for P and S waves in the South Island. The features of this model are a high-velocity region in the vicinity of the Benioff zone, and a subcrustal zone of high seismic velocities running east-west across the center of the South Island in an otherwise normal mantle.     

Estimation of static stress changes after the 2001 Bhuj earthquake: Implications towards the northward spatial migration of the seismic activity in Kachchh,Gujarat

Spatial-temporal patterns of aftershocks of the 2001 Mw7.7 Bhuj earthquake during 2001–2008 reveal a northward spatial migration of seismic activity in the Kachchh seismic zone, which could be related with the loading stresses caused by the continued occurrences of aftershocks on the north Wagad fault (NWF), the causative fault of the 2001-mainshock. Aiming at explaining the observed northward migration of activity, we modelled the Coulomb failure stress change (DCFS) produced by the 2001-mainshock, the 2006 Mw5.6 Gedi fault (GF) and the 2007 Mw4.5 Allah bund fault (ABF) events on optimally oriented plane. A strong correlation between occurrences of earthquakes and regions of increased DCFS is obtained on the associated three faults i.e. NWF, ABF and GF. Predicted DCFS on the GF increased by 0.9 MPa at 3 km depth, where the 7^th March 2006 Mw5.6 event occurred, whereas predicted DCFS on the ABF increased by 0.07 MPa at 30 km depth, where the 15^th December 2007 Mw4.5 event occurred. Focal mechanism solutions of three events on the ABF have been estimated using the iterative inversion of broadband data from 5–10 stations, which are also constrained by the first P-motion data from 8–12 stations. These focal mechanism solutions for the ABF events reveal a dominant reverse movement with a strike-slip component along a preferred northwest or northeast dipping plane (∼50–70°). Focal mechanisms of the events on all the three fault zones reveal an N-S oriented P- axis or maximum principal stress in the region, which agrees with the prevailing N-S compression over the Indian plate. It is apparent that the northward migration of the static stress changes from the NWF, resulting from the occurrence 2001 Bhuj mainshock, might have caused the occurrence of the events on the GF and ABF during 2006–08.     

Slow subduction of old lithosphere in the lesser antilles

The Lesser Antilles subduction zone is an extreme case of the subduction of old (~ 90 m.y.) lithosphere at a slow (~ 2 cm/y) convergence rate. Focal mechanisms of the largest earthquakes in the area have been obtained using body and surface wave data. During the time period (1950–1978) studied the subduction seismicity appears to represent primarily intraplate rather than interplate deformation. All three large (magnitude seven) earthquakes were from intraplate normal faults; no large thrust faulting earthquakes and few small ones occurred. These observations suggest that the plate boundary is largely decoupled, that subduction is at least partially aseismic, and that the downgoing slab is in a state of extension.     

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M _w 4.0–7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M _w 6.5 are about 6–7 years, 9–10 years, 59–78 years, 72–115 years and 88–127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.     

Simushir earthquakes and tsunami of November 15, 2006, and January 13, 2007

The earthquakes and tsunami on November 15, 2006 and January 13, 2007, near Simushir Island are described. Long-term and short-term precursors of the phenomena are discussed. A joint analysis of the seismological and geodetic data provided reliable interpretation of the source mechanisms of the earthquakes. The actions of the tsunami warning personnel are analyzed. Extensive experimental data on the tsunami occurrence at different sites of the Pacific Ocean are presented. The tsunami of November 15, 2006, was numerically modeled using coseismic vertical displacements of the ocean bottom calculated from GPS data. The observed and calculated data on the maximal tsunami run up are compared.     

3-D seismic structure of the Kachchh,Gujarat, and its implications for the earthquake hazard mitigation

Several pieces of studies on the January 26, 2001, Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.6) revealed that the mainshock was triggered on the hidden unmapped fault in the western part of Indian stable continental region that caused a huge loss in the entire Kachchh rift basin of Gujarat, India. Occurrences of infrequent earthquakes of Mw 7.6 due to existence of hidden and unmapped faults on the surface have become one of the key issues for geoscientific research, which need to be addressed for evolving plausible earthquake hazard mitigation model. In this study, we have carried out a detailed autopsy of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source zone by applying three-dimensional (3-D) local earthquake tomography (LET) method to a completely new data set consisting of 576 local earthquakes recorded between November 2006 and April 2009 by a seismic network consisting of 22 numbers of three-component broadband digital seismograph stations. In the present study, a total of 7560 arrival times of P-wave (3820) and S-wave (3740) recorded at least 4 seismograph stations were inverted to assimilate 3-D P-wave velocity (Vp), S-wave velocity (Vs), and Poisson’s ratio (σ) structures beneath the 2001 Bhuj earthquake source zone for reliable interpretation of the imaged anomalies and its bearing on earthquake hazard of the region. The source zone is located near the triple junction formed by juxtapositions of three Indian, Arabian, and Iranian tectonic plates that might have facilitated the process of brittle failure at a depth of 25 km beneath the KRB, Gujarat, which caused a gigantic loss to both property and persons of the region. There may be several hidden seismogenic faults around the epicentral zone of the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in the area, which are detectable using 3-D tomography to minimize earthquake hazard for a region. We infer that the use of detailed 3-D seismic tomography may offer potential information on hidden and unmapped faults beneath the plate interior to unravel the genesis of such big damaging earthquakes. This study may help in evolving a comprehensive earthquake risk mitigation model for regions of analogous geotectonic settings, elsewhere in the world.     

Source model for the Mw 6.1, 31 March 2006, Chalan‐Chulan Earthquake (Iran) from InSAR

We use InSAR to measure deformation and kinematics of the Mw = 4.9 Borujerd (2005/05/03) and Mw = 6.1 Chalan‐Chulan (2006/03/31) earthquakes that occurred in the Zagros fold‐and‐thrust belt. The focal mechanism of the 2006 event is consistent with right lateral strike‐slip motion and the event ruptured the Dorud‐Borujerd segment of the Main Recent Fault. An Envisat interferogram spanning the 2006 event shows peak ground deformation of 9 cm in the satellite line‐of‐sight along a 10 km long fault portion. The interferogram spanning the 2005 earthquake is rather related to atmospheric artefact than to ground deformation. Dislocation models of the 2006 Chalan‐Chulan event indicate dextral slip amounting to a maximum of 90 cm at a depth of 4 km. The predicted vertical displacements are in good agreement with differential levelling data. The 2006 event filled only a small part of the seismic gap located between large M = 7 events that occurred in 1909 and 1957.     

Intraplate earthquakes and their link with mantle dynamics: Insights from P-wave teleseismic tomography along the northern part of the North–South Tectonic Zone in China

The North–South Tectonic Zone (NSTZ) running across the Chinese continent is an important earthquake-prone zone. Around one third of the strong earthquakes (> 7.0) of China in the past occurred in this region. Receiver function study has imaged vertical convection in the mantle beneath the northern part of the NSTZ (NNSTZ), which might be related to stress accumulation and release as well as related earthquakes. Here we perform a P-wave teleseismic tomographic analysis of this region. Our results reveal prominent low-velocity and high-velocity perturbations in the upper mantle beneath this region, which we correlate with mantle upwelling, possibly resulting from lower crustal and (or) lithospheric delamination. Our results also reveal significant contrast in the velocity perturbation of the lithosphere along the two sides of this tectonic zone, suggesting possible material exchange between the eastern and western domains and lithosphere-scale control on the generation of earthquakes.     

Seismogenic Structure of the April 20, 2013, Lushan Ms7 Earthquake in Sichuan

At 08:02 on April 20, 2013, a Ms7.0 earthquake occurred in Lushan, Ya'an, in the Longmenshan fault zone, Sichuan. The epicenter was located between Taiping Town and Shuangshi Town, Lushan County and the maximum earthquake intensity at the epicenter reached class IX. Field investigations in the epicenter area found that, although buildings were seriously damaged, no obvious surface rupture structure was produced, only some ground fissures and sand blows and water ejection phenomena being seen. An integrated analysis of high-resolution remote sensing image interpretation, mainshock and aftershock distribution, and focal mechanism solutions indicated that this earthquake was an independent rupturing event in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone, belonging to the thrust-type earthquake. Ruptures occurred along the south-central segment of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault and the principal rupture plane dipped SW at 33-43°. It is inferred that the Lushan earthquake might be related to the ramp activity of the basal detachment zone (13-19 km) of the Longmenshan fault zone. Historically, there occurred at least two Ms6-6.5 earthquakes along the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault zone; thus it is thought that the Lushan earthquake, different from the Wenchuan earthquake, was a characteristic one in the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone. In-situ stress measurements indicated the Lushan earthquake was the result of stress release of the southwestern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone after the Wenchuan earthquake. This paper analyzes the tectonic setting of the seismogenic structure of this earthquake.