A possible geophysical interpretation of the anomalies in the residuals of astronomical time and latitude determination

Short period anomalies in astronomical time and latitude residuals sometimes appeared simultaneously and/or separately before major earthquakes which occurred in the vicinity of site where astronomical time and latitude observations were made with classical instruments. This article summarizes our results, and suggests that the anomalies could be caused by some vertical changes due to the motion of the underground mass.     

Temporal and spatial distribution of GPS-TEC anomalies prior to the strong earthquakes

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive and harmful natural disasters, especially in recent years, the 2008/5/12 Wenchuan M7.9 earthquake, the 2011/3/11 Tohoku M9.0 earthquake and the 2012/4/11 Sumatra M8.6 earthquake have caused a significant impact to the human life. In this paper, we make a study of the temporal and spatial distribution of the Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) anomalies prior to the three strong earthquakes by the method of statistical analysis. Our results show that the pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies are mainly positive anomalies and take the shape of a double-crest structure with a trough near the epicenter. The ionospheric anomalies do not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter of the subsequent earthquake, but mainly localize in the near-epicenter region and corresponding ionospheric anomalies are also simultaneously observed in the magnetic conjugate region prior to the three earthquakes. In addition, the amplitude and scale-size of the ionospheric ΔTEC are different with the magnitude of the earthquake, and the horizontal scale-size of the greatest anomalies before the Tohoku M9.0 earthquake is ～30^° in longitude and ～10^° in latitude, with the maximum amplitude of TEC disturbances reaching ～20 TECu relative to the background. The peak of anomaly enhancement usually occurs in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 14:00 and 18:00 local time) which lasts for approximate 2 hours. Possible causes of these anomalies are discussed, and after eliminating the effect of solar activities and magnetic storms it can be concluded that the detected obvious and regular anomalous behavior in TEC within just a few days before the earthquakes is related with the forthcoming earthquakes with high probability.     

汶川地震前后的气象异常

有研究认为局地气象异常与地震之间存在着一定的相关性,那么震惊中外的汶川大地震前后有没有气象异常呢？应用NCEP再分析资料,以1988—2007年20年间局地气象要素的平均值和标准偏差为基准,通过构建气象异常指数对2008年5月12日汶川发生的大地震前后的日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均降水强度和日平均气压等5项气象要素指标的异常状况进行了分析,结果表明在地震前2个月的时间内有异常状况出现,并且其变化幅度和持续时间都比较长,在地震过后这些异常并未立即消失;从5项气象要素异常空间分异来看,汶川是气象异常的中心地带,表征了汶川地震与局地气象之间存在着一定的相关性。尽管气象异常是否是地震发生的必然前兆尚待进一步考证,但出现在汶川特大地震前后的气象异常再次给我们一个提示,即气象异常与地震的关系值得深入研究。     

A possible warning sign of major earthquake through observations of astronomical time and latitude

On July 28, 1976, a major earthquake (M=7.9) occurred in the Tangshan region of China. After the earthquake, it was found that astronomical time-latitude anomalies were observed preceeding the occurrence of the earthquake. These observations had been obtained on the Astrolabe of the Beijing Astronomical Observatory and the VZT of Tianjin Latitide Station, which are just located around the epicentre. The anomalies were in the analyses of the time and latitude residuals, and there are more examples verifying these phenomena. However, all those examples were found in post-earthquake analyses. In this paper we discuss the possibility of earthquake prediction and forecast from the rediduals of astronomical time-latitude. For example, series of the five-day means are analyzed. The observations were supposed to be terminated two weeks before the earthquake, and the data are then analyzed a year backward. After removing their averages, the standard deviations are calculated of these series are calculation. Eight earthquakes were chosen as the events to be examined, (see Table). Most of the related instruments obtained excellent observations. The results are shown in the Figure. It is evident that abnormal peaks of RT and RF appeared before each earthquake. Thus we may conclude the followings:

1. Under the normal observation conditions, one high predision instruments could inform about a major earthquake a few weeks or a few days before it occurrs.
2. The astronomical observations are seriously affected by the weather and observers and so they are some what uncertain.

     

A statistical study on the temporal distribution of ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to M7.0+ earthquakes during 2003–2012

In this paper, we conduct a new statistical study on the temporal distribution of the Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) anomalies prior to the earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 in the global area during 2003–2012 by the method of statistical analysis. The temporal distribution of the ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to the earthquakes with magnitude M≥7.0 is for the first time studied. It has been observed that the ionospheric negative anomalies mainly occur in one week prior to the earthquakes, and only when the magnitude is greater than or equal to 7.6, the ionospheric anomalies will have the greatest probability of occurrence in the afternoon to sunset (i.e. between 12:00 and 18:00 local time). They last for approximate 2 hr, but the chance of detecting the significant enhancement in the ionospheric TEC seems not to be a function of time and there is no clear tendency for positive anomalies. In addition, the relationship of the occurrence rate of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies and the magnitude of the earthquake is discussed, and it is found that the observed ionospheric TEC anomalies within several days before the earthquakes are highly likely to be related with the earthquakes because the occurrence rate of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies seems to increase slightly with the earthquake magnitude increasing.     

Anomalous variation in GPS TEC prior to the 11 April 2012 Sumatra earthquake

On 11 April 2012, a strong earthquake of magnitude Ms8.6 occurred near the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia. In this paper, we investigated the morphological characteristics of anomalous variations in Global Positioning System Total Electron Content (GPS TEC) prior to the earthquake by the method of the statistical analysis. It was found the TEC anomaly was firstly decreased, then, it became more enhanced, finally, it decreased, the peak of anomaly enhancement arose from 13:00–17:00 LT on April 5 lasted for ～4 hours and the anomalous ionospheric regions extended to ～40^° in longitude and ～20^° in latitude, its location did not coincide with the vertical projection of the epicenter, but lies at the north and south of the geomagnetic equator, meanwhile, corresponding ionospheric anomalies are also observed in the magneto conjugate region. Potential causes of these results are discussed,eliminating the ionospheric anomalies that may be caused by solar activities and magnetic storms, it can be concluded that the observed obvious anomalous variation in GPS TEC on April 5 were possibly related to the earthquake.     

天文因子与中国大地震活动趋势预测

根据太阳活动与月亮运动周期预测１９８８年开始的中国大地震活跃期已经基本结束,从现在起到２０００年中国大陆发生Ｍｓ≥７０地震的可能性很小。     

2008～2009年云台等高仪时纬残差的异常波动

分析了2008～2009年间云南天文台光电等高仪的时纬资料的残差值的变化,讨论了残差异常变化与此期间云南天文台周围发生的2008年5月12日四川汶川8.0级地震、8月30日攀枝花6.1级地震以及12月26日昆明4.3级地震的可能的关系,并讨论了与该研究有关的问题。     

Excitation of polar motion by earthquake displacement field

We discuss the excitation of polar motion by earthquake displacement field. Instead of the usual static equilibrium equations in the literature, we use an improved set as given in /1/, which guarantee continuity at the core-mantle boundary. We take the parameter values of three earthquakes from /2/.To obviate the singularity at r = 0, we use asymptotic solutions by power series within a small sphere around the centre. Outisde this sphere, the equations are numerically integrated by the Runge-Kutta algorithm. Our equations /1/ gave polar shifts some 3 times larger than Dahlen's equations /2/.     

The First Solar Seeing Profile Measurement with Two Apertures and Multiple Guide Regions

The sky brightness is a critical parameter for estimating the coronal observation conditions for a solar observatory. As part of a site-survey project in Western China, we measured the sky brightness continuously at the Lijiang Observatory in Yunnan province in 2011. A sky brightness monitor (SBM) was adopted to measure the sky brightness in a region extending from 4.5 to 7.0 apparent solar radii based on the experience of the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) site survey. Every month, the data were collected manually for at least one week. We collected statistics of the sky brightness at four bandpasses located at 450, 530, 890, and 940 nm. The results indicate that aerosol scattering is of great importance for the diurnal variation of the sky brightness. For most of the year, the sky brightness remains under 20 millionths per airmass before local Noon. On average, the sky brightness is less than 20 millionths, which accounts for 40.41% of the total observing time on a clear day. The best observation time is from 9:00 to 13:00 (Beijing time). The Lijiang Observatory is therefore suitable for coronagraphs investigating the structures and dynamics of the corona.     

云南天文台大气水汽含量的观测

简述了利用北京师范大学研制的ＩＲＡ－９３５型红外水气测量仪，对凤凰山上空垂直大气水汽积分含量Ｗ０的观测结果及精度。并且给出了Ｗ０的各种变化曲线，在旱季和雨季的Ｗ０分布。同时也给出了红外测水仪测得的数据Ｗ０与无线电探空资料计算得到的数据Ｗ０的比较相关。结果表明：凤凰山上空垂直大气积分水汽含量雨季平均为２．４９６ｃｍ，旱季平均为１．００３ｃｍ；Ｗ０与Ｗ’０的相关系数为０．９４２，测量误差小于５％。     

Magnetic field and flares of the large sunspot group of April–May 1978

From magnetograms of the active region 15266 obtained at Yunnan observatory we found that 1) an inverted field configuration and a twisted neutral line are both closely correlated with high-energy flare eruptions. After the flares, the field configuration and the neutral line revert to more stable states. 2) Most of the flares of the present region occurred away from the neutral line; those near the line occurred either in regions of high field gradient or in the vicinity of Severny's “neutral points”.     

太阳微波M型爆发

分析北京天文台１９９８年４月１５日观测到的一个太阳微波Ｍ型爆发事件．Ｍ型爆发实质上是Ⅲ型爆发的一个次型,它由两个连续的Ｕ型爆发所组成,即爆发源在同一个磁环中由于磁镜的作用而连续往返运动后的轨迹,但是在低时间分辨率（０．２ｓ）记录资料中却是 Ｕ型爆发的形态．因此高时间分辨率（８ ｍｓ）的记录资料能更准确地反映Ｍ型爆发源的真实运动情况．对比组成Ｍ型爆发的两个Ｕ型爆发,可以看到,该磁环很可能处在下降的演化阶段．最后讨论该磁环可能的空间分布．     

用太阳系主要天体的位置建立特大地震的时间预测模型

根据某类事件发生时太阳系主要运动天体的位置，通过对其历史资料的归算，尝试并设计出一种具有普适性的事件时间预测模型．以1900-1980年间全球所有8级及以上的99次地震为例，定义与天体特征位置(视黄经)相关的发震率，初步建立预测发震时刻的概率曲线．指出这可能成为研究地震预报问题的新途径．     

Relationen zwischen Störungen des lokalen Temperaturfeldes und den geodätisch-astronomischen Beobachtungsresultaten am Astrolab DANJON (Mitteilungen des Zentralinstituts für Physik der Erde,Nr. 955)

The long-term series of geodetic-astronomical observations are an important data basis for geodynamic investigations, but the microclimatic influence on their results is an uncontested fact too. The local topography brings about thermal anomalies and thus it is the cause of the inclination of isopycenics and refraction disturbances. The measuring equipment is described for the temperature registration near the astrolabe DANJON at the observatory Potsdam. It is reported on quality and treatment of measuring dates and on design of the graphic temperature-model. In the 6-metre plane, horizontal temperature gradients were determined in the azimuth of all stars observed. They yield direct information about the thermally caused inclination of the layers of equal density in the differentially small region which is passed by the beam of light coming from the star. The correlation between these gradients and the geodetic-astronomical observations are detected. The corrections produced on the basis of the regression analysis are computed for significant correlations (about 30%). An improvement and extension of the temperature recorder is discussed with a view to a higher effect of this method.     

中国最早的观象台发掘

在山西襄汾县陶寺镇附近发掘出距今约4000年的最早观象台兼祭祀台遗址,它是由观测点、夯土柱和柱间狭缝组成,用于观测日出方位变化,确定回归年长度来制订历法。模拟观测结果表明,位于东南和东北的二狭缝可准确测定冬至和夏至日期,而此二狭缝之间有10个土柱,应象征着视太阳向北和向南每位移一个土柱为一个节气。由此推之,帝尧时的历法特征是将一岁分成20个节气的阳历,上古时的阴阳五行历即十月太阳历是源于它奠定的基础。     

极移的地震激发研究

本文采用Harvard目录中1977－1994年间的地震有关参数，及Dahlen计算的地震引起地球惯量矩的变化有关公式，得到由地震引起的极移要比观测值小2个量级．单个地震引起的极漂移呈现随机特性，但它的累积效应却表现出长期的变化，地震引起激发极的运动方向趋向于130—150°E，它与观测极漂移的方向相反．本文这一分析结果将随着观测技术的不断改进及观测精度的提高而得到证实．当考虑地球液核效应时，地震也可能对地球液核自由章动产生影响．我们的分析表明，大地震的这一影响与VLBI检测出的结果相比较，它在观测精度以下．     

2.4m望远镜曝光时间计算器的设计和实现

望远镜的曝光时间计算器对于远程观测以及不熟悉整个观测系统的观测人员尤为重要,因为它可以帮助观测者制定合理的观测计划。设计并实现了高美古2.4m望远镜系统的曝光时间计算器(exposuretimecalculator,ETC),它可以根据望远镜及其终端设备的参数,通过计算给出待测天体曝光时间的参考值。这为观测者了解现有条件下极限观测能力,设置曝光时间或者是给定星等和曝光时间计算信噪比提供了依据。将ETC计算结果与实际测光标准星的数据进行了比较,结果表明ETC对测光标准星的计算结果是可靠的。     

米波分米波太阳射电频谱观测研究

本文介绍了云南天文台米波分米波两个波段射电频谱仪的性能指标及可能的观测研究选题。     

Iron K line profiles driven by non-axisymmetric illumination

Previous calculations of Fe K line profiles are based on axisymmetric emissivity laws. In this paper, we show line profiles driven by non-axial symmetric illumination which results from an off-axis X-ray point source. We find that source location and motion have significant effects on the red wing and blue horn of the line profiles. The disc region under the source will receive more flux, which is the most important factor to affect the line profiles. We suggest that at least part of the variation in Fe K line profiles is caused by the motion of X-ray sources. Future observations of Fe K line profiles will provide more information about the distribution and motion of the X-ray sources around black holes, and hence the underlying physics.