Gradient theory of nucleation in polar fluids

Gradient theory (GT), a form of density functional theory (DFT), was applied to water, methanol, and ethanol using the cubic perturbed hard body (CPHB) equation of state (EOS). Compared to the standard form of classical nucleation theory (CNT), the GT results for water showed an improved temperature dependence, but the supersaturation dependence was slightly poorer. GT and several forms of CNT were also found to be in good agreement with a single high T molecular dynamics rate for TIP4P water. The rates predicted by GT for methanol and ethanol were improved by several orders of magnitude compared to CNT, but no improvement in the predicted temperature dependence of the rates was found.     

Displacement barrier heights from experimental nucleation rate data

Nucleation phenomena have a great importance in many areas of science. However, the main theoretical tool to analyse these phenomena, the classical nucleation theory (CNT), has known weaknesses. A decade ago a nucleation theorem based correction to CNT was developed [McGraw, R., Laaksonen, A., 1996. Scaling properties of the critical nucleus in classical and molecular-based theories of vapor–liquid nucleation. Phys. Rev. Lett. 76, 2754–2757]. We have analysed experimental nucleation rate data of two homologous series of molecular fluids in terms of this scaling relation. Our first results suggest possible universal functional form for correction to the temperature dependence of CNT.     

Growth of homogeneously nucleated water droplets: a quantitative comparison of experiment and theory

The formation of aerosols proceeds through nucleation, growth and aging stages. The understanding of nucleation and droplet growth is essential for handling the more complex atmospheric condensation processes. To achieve this goal, measurements of the nucleation rate of various systems are performed in an expansion chamber. In this manner nucleation and growth are decoupled by applying a short nucleation pulse of about 1 ms during which the nuclei are formed. The subsequent droplet growth is quantitatively monitored by Mie-scattering. To this end, the Mie-maxima and -minima are detected as a function of time and compared to theoretical Mie-scattering calculations for increasing radii. In this fashion, a wealth of growth curves for pure water depending on supersaturations, number densities of droplets, and temperatures were obtained. Following the approach of Fuchs and Sutugin [Fuchs, N.A., Sutugin, A.G., 1970. Highly Dispersed Aerosols. Ann Arbor Science Publishers, Ann Arbor; Fuchs, N.A., Sutugin, A.G., 1971. In: Hidy, G.M., Brock, J.R. (Eds.), International Reviews in Aerosol Physics and Chemistry: Topics in Current Aerosol Research (Part 2), Pergamon, New York, p. 1], we calculated theoretical growth curves taking into account the depletion of water vapor, the increase of droplet- and system-temperature, temperature-dependent functions of the diffusion coefficient, surface tension, liquid density and latent heat of condensation. The calculated growth curves and experimental data for 230, 240 and 250 K with number densities of droplets between 5×10² and 2×10⁶ droplets/cm³ yield quantitative agreement between theory and experiment. This is remarkable in so far as the theory contains no adjustable parameters and assumes the sticking probability of the vapor molecules to be unity. Using a sticking probability smaller than 0.8 in the calculation leads to growth functions already outside the experimental error.     

Effects of seed particle size and composition on heterogeneous nucleation of n-nonane

Heterogeneous nucleation of supersaturated n-nonane vapour on seed particles of different size and composition has been investigated using a fast expansion chamber. Monodisperse seed particle sizes were ranging from about 4 nm up to about 24 nm in diameter. By using different types of particle generators WO_x, Ag and (NH₄)₂SO₄ particles were generated. For direct comparison between different particle compositions overlapping sizes have been generated for WO_x and Ag at about 7 nm particle diameter as well as for Ag and (NH₄)₂SO₄ at about 15 nm. Nucleation temperature was kept constant at about 278 K. Experimental data were compared to Kelvin equation and Fletcher theory including the effect of line tension. It was found that heterogeneous nucleation of n-nonane seems to be independent of seed particle composition and starts well below the Kelvin curve. Good agreement was achieved with Fletcher theory including the effect of line tension.     

Understanding water pollution management: Evidence and insights from incorporating cultural theory in social network analysis

Social network analysis gives a rigid assessment of network structure while cultural theory helps explain management outcomes in more detail. The combination of these methods provides significant and alternative insights about the complexity of water pollution management. Applied in the case study of the Calumpang Watershed in the Philippines, two types of relations were evaluated, namely, resource sharing and cooperative activities. Factors affecting cooperation and the creation of bridges were assessed in social network analysis, while cultural theory was used to reveal the underlying views of key actors on the nature of the river and its management. Evidence showed that cooperation was significantly influenced by resource sharing regardless of institutional affiliation, while bridges were created by becoming the pools of information and resources in the network. Using cultural theory, this study found out that local government officials dominantly have a mixture of hierarchist and egalitarian views characterizing belief in both rule-bound and group-motivated actions to solve the water pollution problem. However, their egalitarian views on management did not manifest in the current network. The study concludes that collaborative partnerships for water pollution management can be facilitated by promoting resource flow, utilizing influential bridges in the network, and understanding the unconventional values of government actors. Combining social network analysis and cultural theory is recommended to generate a more critical assessment of the institutional complexity of pollution and other water issues in watersheds.     

基于空间梯度信息的质量控制方法在红外高光谱AIRS资料同化中的应用研究

本文利用中尺度非静力WRF(Weather Research Forecast, Version 3.4)模式, 针对1013号“鲇鱼”台风个例, 通过对红外高光谱AIRS(Atmospheric Infrared Sounder)资料经过基于空间梯度信息的质量控制之后同化进入模式, 来评估新的质量控制方法对同化效果的影响以及对台风数值模拟的改善情况。研究结果发现, 如果仅仅基于WRFDA(WRF Data Assimilation system, Version 3.4)模式自带的质量控制系统, 将会有部分梯度距平值明显较大超过阈值的资料被同化进入模式, 而这些可能受到“污染”且误差较大的资料同化进入模式必将会导致同化结果有较大误差, 影响分析结果的质量。而对AIRS资料经过基于空间梯度信息质量控制之后再同化进入模式, 确实可将梯度距平值大于阈值的“坏点”剔除掉, 从而使初始场的描述更加准确, 台风路径的模拟精度在一定程度上得到提高。综上可知, 基于空间梯度信息的质量控制方法整体上对改善同化效果有较好的正效应, 对台风的数值模拟也起到一定的促进作用。     

基于梯度提升树的大气分层透过率快速计算方法

大气透过率的计算是红外辐射传输计算的核心,RTTOV(Radiative Transfer for TOVS)通过建立大气廓线中温度、水汽、臭氧和其他气体浓度等参数与卫星通道透过率的统计关系,可实现卫星通道透过率和大气顶辐射率的快速准确计算。但在一些复杂吸收波段,如水汽波段,RTTOV的计算误差较大。为提高RTTOV在水汽敏感波段的计算精度,利用机器学习中的梯度提升树(Gradient Boosting Tree,GBT)方法,选取从ECMWF(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)的IFS-137(The Integrated Forecast System,137-level-profile)廓线集中挑选的1406条廓线和由此计算的透过率真值作为样本,选取风云三号气象卫星上搭载的红外分光计(Infra Red Atmospheric Sounder,IRAS)通道12(7.33μm)进行个例研究,分别建立陆地和海洋晴空大气等压面至大气层顶透过率的快速计算模型(GBT模型)。通过和透过率、亮温真值的比较,验证了GBT模型...     

A two-moment parameterization of aerosol nucleation and impaction scavenging for a warm cloud microphysics: description and results from a two-dimensional simulation

A new two-moment warm bulk scheme has been developed including explicitly nucleation and impaction scavenging of aerosol particles as well as all other microphysical processes. The scheme is built upon a quasispectral representation of the aerosol particle, cloud droplet and raindrop distributions. It predicts mixing ratios and number concentrations for each category. Each process is treated explicitly and independently to establish an analytic expression for each contribution for the time-dependant microphysical equations. The scheme has been tested in the dynamical framework of a two-dimensional kinematic model, developed for the Hawaiian Rainband Project (HaRP, 1990). In this frame, the scheme has performed reasonably well compared to the observations as well as to other similar parameterization schemes, and to the spectral model DESCAM.Sensitivity tests demonstrate the great sensitivity of the scheme to the initial aerosol spectrum characteristics. Moreover, they have also shown its capability to calculate nucleation and impaction scavenging and to follow the taken up particle mass in the cloud and raindrop spectra until the deposition on the ground by the rain.Therefore, the parameterization offers a possibility of treating the evolution of the liquid phase of the cloud together with the aerosol particle scavenging. However, due to the severe limitations of a two-dimensional kinematic model, the scheme needs to be further validated in a three-dimensional dynamical model.     

On the effect of the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosol particles on nucleation scavenging and the formation of a cloud interstitial aerosol

Nucleation scavenging and the formation of a cloud interstitial aerosol (CIA) were theoretically studied in terms of the chemical composition of atmospheric aerosol particles. For this study, we used our air-parcel cloud model, which includes the entrainment of air and detailed microphysics, for determining the growth and interaction of aerosol particles and drops. Maritime and remote continental aerosol particle spectrums were used whose size distributions were superpositions of three log-normal distributions, each of a prescribed chemical composition. Our results show (1) that the CIA exhibits a size distribution with a distinctive cut-off at a specific radius of the dry as well as of the wet particle size distribution. All particles above this limiting size become activated to cloud drops and, thus, are not present in the CIA spectrum. This limiting size was found to be independent of the chemical composition of the particles and only dependent on the prevailing supersaturation. Below this specific size, the CIA spectrum becomes depleted of dry aerosol particles in a manner which does depend on their chemical composition and on the supersaturation in the air. (2) The number of aerosol particles nucleated to cloud drops depends critically on the chemical composition of the particles and on the prevailing supersaturation.     

基于卫星资料梯度信息的新型变分同化方法对于台风数值模拟的研究

卫星资料凭着卫星遥感的全球性、连续性和高频次观测等优势,成为一种重要的非常规资料源,但卫星观测仍然存在各种各样的观测误差,其中包含由于观测偶然性所造成的统计学上的随机误差及仪器本身和辐射传输模式等造成的系统性偏差,这些误差在很大程度上影响了卫星资料的质量。文中提出了一种能有效订正卫星观测资料系统性偏差的梯度信息同化算法,该方法用一个梯度算子进行模式变量与观测变量的梯度变换,从而达到订正系统性偏差的目的。本文利用WRF（Weather Research Forecast）模式及其同化模式WRFDA（WRF Data Assimilation system）,以及AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）资料,对台风“圆规”进行了实际的数值模拟和同化试验,数值结果表明,梯度信息同化方法能明显改善台风路径的模拟,在处理可信度较低的资料时仍然适用。另外,通过同化诊断分析,发现卫星资料的系统性偏差对于台风数值模拟有较大影响,而文中提出的梯度信息同化方法能较好的解决此类问题。     

Self-consistent binary cluster size distributions: nucleation of sulfuric acid–water vapors

The incorporation of additional information on free energies of small clusters in a cluster distribution based on the capillarity approximation is considered in relation with self-consistency (SC). The concept of fictitious average monomers is applied to expand the self-consistent form of a unary size distribution to cover also the distribution of a binary system. The experimental data on the free energies of monohydrates and dihydrates of sulfuric acid are used to obtain the partially self-consistent size distribution of clusters. Using these distributions, the concentrations of sulfuric acid and water, required for obtaining a unit nucleation rate, are calculated and compared among themselves and with experimental concentrations. Free energies of cluster formation are estimated by the thermodynamically consistent classical theory taking into account the difference between interior and surface compositions of a cluster. The partially self-consistent size distribution gives the best agreement with experimental data. The self-consistent distribution of the proposed form overestimates hydration and, therefore, largely underestimates nucleation rates compared to experimental rates.     

基于网络理论的供应链研究综述

21世纪是复杂性与网络化的世纪.面对纷繁复杂的现象,人类借助网络理论分析工具对诸多现象给出解释,同时设计有效的控制方案对复杂系统进行优化与管理.在现实中,供应链就是这一范例.由于大多数供应链具有一定的网络结构,那么从网络理论的角度出发,研究供应网络中存在的各类问题将会更加贴近现实.本文通过梳理前人的成果,对相关研究的发展情况进行分析和总结.同时,给出了供应链网络值得探讨的一些问题,为进一步研究奠定了基础.     

斜压不稳定理论的发展历程分析

斜压不稳定理论是中高纬度地区天气尺度扰动生成和发展的机制,是继长波理论之后大气动力学上的又一重大进展,对现代天气预报具有重要的指导意义。按照斜压不稳定理论发展的时间脉络,阐述了赵九章、查尼和伊迪在斜压不稳定方面开展的研究工作,分析了3位科学家各自的研究特点及历史贡献。赵九章1946年发表在《Journal of Meteorology》上的论文,最早提出了"斜压不稳定"这一概念,给出了不稳定的临界波长,并阐述了在不稳定扰动情况下能量的转换,以及不稳定波对大气环流带来的可能影响,尽管得出的不稳定临界波长与观测差别较大,但其对波-流相互作用的讨论在当时是超前的。查尼于1947年采用滤波和尺度分析等方法,将大气扰动方程简化为一个可以求解的系统,推导出大气稳定状态的判据,建立了斜压不稳定理论,其结果与实况比较接近;并据此把准地转模式成功应用于数值天气预报实践中,促使数值天气预报获得首次成功。1949年,伊迪在查尼研究工作的基础上通过合理的简化方法,得到了更为简洁的模型。最后,通过对比他们的研究思路,重点分析了赵九章未能使得斜压不稳定理论提前一年建立的原因:由于其研究思路始终局限在大气水平运动上,忽略了斜压系统发展中散度项的贡献,因而未能抓住天气系统发生、发展的本质,致使其最终与斜压不稳定理论的成功建立失之交臂,其论文本身存在的一些亮点也因此被后人忽视。      

模糊理论在高校科技投入-产出决策中的应用

将模糊理论运用到高校科技投入-产出决策中,建立高校投入-产出决策模糊综合评价模型,并对我国31个地区2010年高校科技投入-产出决策进行实证分析.在模型中,将高校科技产出指标作为高校科技投入决策的评价指标,计算科技投入-产出决策的隶属度并进行排序.分析结果表明,高校R&D经费和人员投入水平高的地区,其隶属度越大,该地区的高校科技投入决策相对较优,而高校科技隶属度水平低的地区,经费投入是限制其发展的主要因素.     

The Characteristics of Atmospheric Ice Nuclei Measured at Different Altitudes in the Huangshan Mountains in Southeast China简

The concentration of ice nuclei （IN） and the relationship with aerosol particles were measured and analyzed using three 5-L mixing cloud chambers and a static diffusion cloud chamber at three altitudes in the Huangshan Mountains in Southeast China from May to September 2011.The results showed that the mean total number concentration of IN on the highest peak of the Huangshan Mountains at an activation temperature （Ta） of-20℃C was 16.6 L-1.When the supersaturation with respect to water （Sw） and with respect to ice （Si） were set to 5％,the average number concentrations of IN measured at an activation temperature of-20℃C by the static diffusion cloud chamber were 0.89 and 0.105 L-1,respectively.A comparison of the concentrations of IN at three different altitudes showed that the concentration of IN at the foot of the mountains was higher than at the peak.A further calculation of the correlation between IN and the concentrations of aerosol particles of different size ranges showed that the IN concentration was well correlated with the concentration of aerosol particles in the size range of 1.2-20 μtm.It was also found that the IN concentration varied with meteorological conditions,such as wind speed,with higher IN concentrations often observed on days with strong wind.An analysis of the backward trajectories of air masses showed that low IN concentrations were often related to air masses travelling along southwest pathways,while higher IN concentrations were usually related to those transported along northeast pathways.     

辽宁短期气候变化的波动理论研究

通过近50 a的资料分析得知,气候形成三大因子太阳辐射、大气环流和地理环境年际间的异常波动是引起短期气候变化的根本原因,也是气候灾害年诊断预测的物理依据。运用波动理论不仅能诊断当年的气候灾害,还能开展3～5 a的气候趋势滚动预测。     

Note on the generalized thermal theory for gravity currents in the deceleration phase

The generalized thermal theory for gravitational convection, produced from instantaneous buoyancy sources on sloping boundaries, developed in Dai and Garcia (2010) is examined in this note. An assumption implicitly made therein, that detrained fluid carries no momentum, was inappropriate and the solution was not physical in special cases. The generalized thermal theory is now improved by considering the momentum carried away by detrained mixed fluid. An asymptotic velocity–distance relation for gravity currents further downslope in the deceleration phase is provided and agreement with reported experimental data is found.     

用拉氏动力学理论研究PBL非均匀湍流扩散

将Gifford和Legg使用的拉氏动力学技巧从地面层延伸到行星边界层(PBL),讨论了平均风和湍流的垂直非均匀性以及大气稳定度对中尺度扩散特征的影响,得到了它们之间的解析表达式,理论结果与野外实测资料之间有较好的一致性.本文结果表明,经典的湍流统计理论不能直接用来研究中尺度范围的扩散,要合理地考虑动力学因子的影响.     

2014年春季华北两次降水过程的人工增雨催化数值模拟研究

在WRF中尺度模式中耦合了中国气象科学研究院发展的CAMS（Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences）云微物理方案,并在CAMS方案中增加了直接播撒冰晶（S1方案）和播撒碘化银催化剂（S2方案）两种云催化方案。利用此模式,对2014年我国华北干旱期间开展飞机增雨作业的两次降水过程（个例1:5月9～10日;个例2:5月10～11日）进行了云催化数值模拟研究,分析了催化对降水和云物理量场影响,对比了S1和S2方案催化效果的异同。结果表明,在云层适当部位播撒催化剂,两种催化方案均会达到增雨效果,催化会引起云中各水凝物的明显变化,并导致催化区域温度、垂直速度的变化。个例1中,S2方案的催化影响范围要大于S1方案,在播撒区下游地区,S2方案催化效果要强于S1方案;而个例2中两方案催化效果没有表现出显著差异。S1和S2方案的催化效果在不同个例中表现不同,其重要原因在于两种催化方案的催化机制差异以及云系动力条件、水汽条件的不同。通过采用适当的催化剂量,在其他催化设置条件相同的情况下,S1和S2方案可以取得相似的催化效果,但需注意由于二者催化机制的差异,在一些具体云系条件下,二者的催化效果会有一定差异。当实际人工增雨作业采用碘化银催化剂时,相应的催化模拟研究使用S2方案更为适合。     

基于模糊理论的气象科研项目风险与绩效评估

通过对项目风险进行综合分析、审定,确立一种气象科研项目的立项风险评估指标及体系的准则;从风险角度出发,构建出一组多级指标的项目风险评估指标体系;采用定性和定量相结合的方法,提出一种基于模糊理论的风险评估体系和模型,对科研项目的立项进行综合评估,给出评估意见,给决策提供指导意见;同时,提出一种气象科研项目绩效考核及推广方法.