Preliminary evidence of a link between surface soil properties and the arsenic content of shallow groundwater in Bangladesh

The extremely heterogeneous distribution of As in Bangladesh groundwater has hampered efforts to identify with certainty the mechanisms that lead to extensive mobilization of this metalloid in reducing aquifers. We show here on the basis of a high-resolution transect of soil and aquifer properties collected in Araihazar, Bangladesh, that revealing tractable associations between As concentrations in shallow (< 20 m) groundwater with other geological, hydrological, and geochemical features requires a lateral sampling resolution of 10–100 m. Variations in the electromagnetic conductivity of surface soils (5–40 mS/m) within a 500 m × 200 m area are documented with 560 EM31 measurements. The results are compared with a detailed section of groundwater As concentrations (5–150 μg/L) and other aquifer properties obtained with a simple sampling device, “the needle-sampler”, that builds on the local drilling technology. By invoking complementary observations obtained in the same area and in other regions of Bangladesh, we postulate that local groundwater recharge throughout permeable sandy soils plays a major role in regulating the As content of shallow aquifers by diluting the flux of As released from reducing sediments.     

Geostatistical analysis of arsenic concentration in the groundwater of Malda district of West Bengal, India

The problem of arsenic (As) poisoning in the upper deltaic plain of the Ganga-Bhagirathi river system in the Bengal Basin of West Bengal, India is an alarming issue. Four blocks (Kaliachak-1, 2, 3 and English Bazar) of Malda district, West Bengal were critically studied. Geomorphologically, the area exhibits three terraces: the present Youngest terrace (T₀-terrace), the Older Shaugaon Surface (T₁-terrace) and the Oldest Baikunthapur Surface (T₂-terrace). On the basis of numerous measurements, including As-content, pH, DO, specific conductivity and salinity, it was observed that maximum As-content beyond the permissible limit (0.05 mg/L, Indian standard) occurs within a depth range of 10–30 m with a non-linear distribution pattern. Variance test also found that a block effect was highly significant in an As-distribution pattern. Mean arsenic level of Kaliachak block-1 is 0.2253 mg/L, followed by Kaliachak-2 with arsenic level 0.1923, Kaliachak-3 with arsenic level 0.1755 and English Bazar with arsenic level 0.1324. The arsenious belt lies mainly within the Older terrace (T₁). The very recent flood plain deposits of silvery white, fine sands lying very close to the Ganga River margin do not contain significant amounts of As. Elevated As-concentration in the ground water was observed in alluvial sands, grayish white to brownish in color and occurring away from the Ganga margin. The Oldest terrace (T2) further away from the Ganga margin (e.g. English Bazar) and Barind surface contains less arsenic. Barind surface acts as a hard capping with ferruginous sands and lateritic concretions-chocolate, mottled and purple brown in color-occurring northeast of the studied area. Arsenic content of ground water in the same locality within a radius of ∼ 20 m varies within wide limits. Thus, it poses problem to delineate its distribution pattern. Such a patchy occurrence possibly could not be explained satisfactorily solely by geomorphology. Chemical analysis of aquifer clay samples of the cores shows a maximum Ascontent of up to 3 mg/kg, whereas the bulk samples (sandclay mixture) of the cores contain a maximum of 17 mg/kg As-value. Therefore, it is not always true that clay contains elevated As-value.     

Near surface lithology and spatial variation of arsenic in the shallow groundwater: southeastern Bangladesh

This study investigated the relationship between near-surface lithology and the spatial variability of As concentrations using sediment grain-size analysis and electromagnetic induction survey in the southeast Bangladesh. It has been observed that the aquifers overlain by finer sediments have higher concentrations of As in groundwater, whereas As concentrations are remarkably low in aquifers having permeable sandy materials or thinner silt/clay layer at the surface. The near-surface lithology acts as a controlling factor for spatial distributions of groundwater As within the very shallow depths (<15 m). Shallow alluvial aquifers can provide low-As drinking water in many areas of the country when tube wells are properly installed after investigation of the overlying near-surface sediment attributes and hydraulic properties.     

Spatial relationship of groundwater arsenic distribution with regional topography and water-table fluctuations in the shallow aquifers in Bangladesh

The present study has examined the relationship of groundwater arsenic (As) levels in alluvial aquifers with topographic elevation, slope, and groundwater level on a large basinal-scale using high-resolution (90 m × 90 m) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model and water-table data in Bangladesh. Results show that high As (>50 μg/l) tubewells are located in low-lying areas, where mean surface elevation is approximately 10 m. Similarly, high As concentrations are found within extremely low slopes (<0.7°) in the country. Groundwater elevation (weekly measured by Bangladesh Water Development Board) was mapped using water-table data from 950 shallow (depth <100 m) piezometers distributed over the entire country. The minimum, maximum and mean groundwater elevation maps for 2003 were generated using Universal Kriging interpolation method. High As tubewells are located mainly in the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, Sylhet Trough, and recent floodplains, where groundwater elevation in shallow aquifers is low with a mean value of 4.5 m above the Public Works Datum (PWD) level. Extremely low groundwater gradients (0.01–0.001 m/km) within the GBM delta complex hinder groundwater flow and cause slow flushing of aquifers. Low elevation and gentle slope favor accumulation of finer sediments, As-carrying iron-oxyhydroxide minerals, and abundant organic matter within floodplains and alluvial deposits. At low horizontal hydraulic gradients and under reducing conditions, As is released in groundwater by microbial activity, causing widespread contamination in the low-lying deltaic and floodplain areas, where As is being recycled with time due to complex biogeochemical processes.     

An application of disjunctive kriging for earthquake ground motion estimation

For earthquake ground motion studies, the actual ground motion distribution should be reproduced as accurately as possible. For optimal estimation of ground motion, kriging has been shown to provide accurate estimates. Although kriging is accurate for this application, some estimates it provides are underestimates. This has dire consequences for subsequent design for earthquake resistance. Kriging does not provide enough information to allow an analysis of each estimate for underestimation. For such an application, disjunctive kriging is better applied. This advanced technique quantifies the probability that an estimate equals or exceeds particular levels of ground motion. Furthermore, disjunctive kriging can provide improved estimation accuracy when applied for local estimation of ground motion.     

Spatial analyses of groundwater levels using universal kriging

For water levels, generally a non-stationary variable, the technique of universal kriging is applied in preference to ordinary kriging as the interpolation method. Each set of data in every sector can fit different empirical semivariogram models since they have different spatial structures. These models can be classified as circular, spherical, tetraspherical, pentaspherical, exponential, gaussian, rational quadratic, hole effect, K-bessel, J-bessel and stable. This study aims to determine which of these empirical semivariogram models will be best matched with the experimental models obtained from groundwater-table values collected from Mustafakemalpasa left bank irrigation scheme in 2002. The model having the least error was selected by comparing the observed water-table values with the values predicted by empirical semivariogram models. It was determined that the rational quadratic empirical semivariogram model is the best fitted model for the studied irrigation area.     

Comparing the robustness of ordinary kriging and lognormal kriging: Outlier resistance

Ordinary kriging is well-known to be optimal when the data have a multivariate normal distribution (and if the variogram is known), whereas lognormal kriging presupposes the multivariate lognormality of the data. But in practice, real data never entirely satisfy these assumptions. In this article, the sensitivity of these two kriging estimators to departures from these assumptions and in particular, their resistance to outliers is considered. An outlier effect index designed to assess the effect of a single outlier on both estimators is proposed, which can be extended to other types of estimators. Although lognormal kriging is sensitive to slight variations in the sill of the variogram of the logs (i.e., their variance), it is not influenced by the estimate of the mean of the logs.This paper was presented at MGUS 87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 14 April 1987.     

Definition of kriging in terms of fuzzy logic

In this paper, we have basically attempted to solve two problems: (i) the restricted kriging problem as stated by Matheron, and (ii) the defining of Matheron's kriging problem within the framework of fuzzy logic in order to interpret the Lagrange multiplier, which is a function of kriging variance and is a dual variable with respect to which the generalized Lagrange function F(X, ) is minimized.on leave from Department of Geology, Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagphur 721302, West Bengal, India.     

Geostatistical estimation of orebody geometry: Morphological kriging

Most geostatistical approaches to the estimation of orebody geometry fail to make full use of the morphological information available and, as such, provide very simplistic and often unsatisfactory models of the shape and location of the orebody. The purpose of this paper is to describe a method of kriging an indicator variable subject to certain morphological information and then transforming the estimates into a binary map; the technique is termedmorphological kriging. Two case studies are used as examples to show that the method reproduces the morphological characteristics of the orebody, in so far as they can be conveyed by the information contained in the samples, while minimizing the smoothing effect of the estimator.     

Arsenic in shallow groundwater of Bangladesh: investigations from three different physiographic settings

Occurrences of arsenic (As) in the Bengal Basin of Bangladesh show close relationships with depositional environments and sediment textures. Hydrochemical data from three sites with varying physiography and sedimentation history show marked variations in redox status and dissolved As concentrations. Arsenic concentration in groundwater of the Ganges Flood Plain (GFP) is characteristically low, where high Mn concentrations indicate redox buffering by reduction of Mn(IV)-oxyhydroxides. Low DOC, \( {\text{HCO}}^{ - }_{3} \), \( {\text{NH}}^{ + }_{4} \) and high \( {\text{NO}}^{ - }_{3} \) and \( {\text{SO}}^{{2 - }}_{4} \) concentrations reflect an elevated redox status in GFP aquifers. In contrast, As concentration in the Ganges Delta Plain (GDP) is very high along with high Fe and low Mn. In the Meghna Flood Plain (MFP), moderate to high As and Fe concentrations and low Mn are detected. Degradation of organic matter probably drives redox reactions in the aquifers, particularly in MFP and GDP, thereby mobilising dissolved As. Speciation calculations indicate supersaturation with respect to siderite and vivianite in the groundwater samples at MFP and GDP, but groundwater in the GFP wells is generally supersaturated with respect to rhodochrosite. Values of log P_CO2 at MFP and GDP sites are generally higher than at the GFP site. This is consistent with Mn(IV)-redox buffering suggested at the GFP site compared to Fe(III)-redox buffering at MFP and GDP sites.     

Arsenic in groundwater of the Bengal Basin, Bangladesh: Distribution, field relations, and hydrogeological setting

Arsenic contaminates groundwater across much of southern, central and eastern Bangladesh. Groundwater from the Holocene alluvium of the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna Rivers locally exceeds 200 times the World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline value for drinking water of 10 µg/l of arsenic. Approximately 25% of wells in Bangladesh exceed the national standard of 50 µg/l, affecting at least 25 million people. Arsenic has entered the groundwater by reductive dissolution of ferric oxyhydroxides, to which arsenic was adsorbed during fluvial transport. Depth profiles of arsenic in pumped groundwater, porewater, and aquifer sediments show consistent trends. Elevated concentrations are associated with fine-sands and organic-rich sediments. Concentrations are low near the water table, rise to a maximum typically 20–40 m below ground, and fall to very low levels between about 100 and 200 m. Arsenic occurs mainly in groundwater of the valley-fill sequence deposited during the Holocene marine transgression. Groundwater from Pleistocene and older aquifers is largely free of arsenic. Arsenic concentrations in many shallow hand-tube wells are likely to increase over a period of years, and regular monitoring will be essential. Aquifers at more than 200 m below the floodplains offer good prospects for long-term arsenic-free water supplies, but may be limited by the threats of saline intrusion and downward leakage of arsenic.

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Resumen El arsénico ha contaminado gran parte de las aguas subterráneas en el Sur, centro y Este de Bangla Desh. Su concentración en las aguas subterráneas del aluvial Holoceno de los ríos Ganges, Brahmaputra y Meghna supera localmente en un factor 200 el valor guía del arsénico en el agua potable, establecido por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) en 10 µg/L. Aproximadamente, el 25% de los pozos de Bangla Desh superan el estándar nacional de 50 µg/L, afectando al menos a 25 millones de personas. El arsénico ha llegado a las aguas subterráneas por la disolución reductora de hidróxidos férricos a los que se adsorbe durante el transporte fluvial. Los perfiles del arsénico en las aguas subterráneas bombeadas, agua de poro y sedimentos del acuífero muestran tendencias coherentes. Las concentraciones elevadas están asociadas a arenas finas y sedimentos ricos en materia orgánica. Las concentraciones de arsénico son bajas cerca del nivel freático, se incrementan hasta un máximo que se localiza generalmente a entre 20 y 40 m bajo la cota del terreno, y disminuyen a valores muy pequeños entre alrededor de 100 y 200 m. El arsénico se encuentra sobretodo en las aguas subterráneas existentes en la secuencia de sedimentación que tuvo lugar en el valle durante la transgresión marina del Holoceno. Las aguas subterráneas del Pleistoceno y acuíferos más antiguos están mayoritariamente libres de arsénico. Es probable que las concentraciones de arsénico aumenten en los próximos años en muchos pozos de tipo tubo perforados manualmente, por lo que será esencial efectuar un muestreo regular. Los acuíferos ubicados a más de 200 m bajo las llanuras de inundación ofrecen buenas perspectivas de abastecimiento a largo plazo sin problemas de arsénico, pero pueden estar limitados por las amenazas de la intrusión salina y de la precolación de arsénico desde niveles superiores.

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Résumé Larsenic contamine les eaux souterraines dans la plus grande partie du sud, du centre et de lest du Bangladesh. Les eaux des nappes alluviales holocènes du Gange, du Brahmapoutre et de la Meghna dépassent localement 200 fois la valeur guide donnée par lOMS pour leau de boisson, fixée à 10 µg/l darsenic. Environ 25% des puits du Bangladesh dépassent la valeur standard nationale de 50 µg/l, affectant au moins 25 millions de personnes. Larsenic a été introduit dans les nappes par la dissolution par réduction doxy-hydroxydes ferriques sur lesquels larsenic était adsorbé au cours du transport fluvial. Des profils verticaux darsenic dans leau souterraine pompée, dans leau porale et dans les sédiments des aquifères montrent des tendances convergentes. Les concentrations élevées sont associées à des sédiments à sable fin et riches en matières organiques. Les concentrations sont faibles au voisinage de la surface de la nappe, atteignent un maximum typiquement entre 20 et 40 m sous le sol, puis tombent à des niveaux très bas entre 100 et 200 m. Larsenic est surtout présent dans les eaux souterraines de la séquence de remplissage de vallée déposée au cours de la transgression marine holocène. Les eaux souterraines des aquifères pléistocènes et plus anciens sont très largement dépourvus darsenic. Les concentrations en arsenic dans de nombreux puits creusés à la main doivent probablement augmenter au cours des prochaines années ; aussi un suivi régulier est essentiel. Les aquifères à plus de 200 m sous les plaines alluviales offrent de bonnes perspectives pour des alimentations en eau sans arsenic à long terme, mais ils peuvent être limités par les risques dintrusion saline et la drainance descendante de larsenic.

     

Distribution of arsenic and other trace elements in the Holocene sediments of the Meghna River Delta, Bangladesh

Geochemical study of the Holocene sediments of the Meghna River Delta, Chandpur, Bangladesh was conducted to investigate the distribution of arsenic and related trace and major elements. The work carried out includes analyses of core sediments and provenance study by rare earth element (REE) analysis. Results showed that the cores pass downward from silty clays and clays into fine to medium sands. The uppermost 3 m of the core sediments are oxidized [average oxidation reduction potential (ORP) + 230 mV], and the ORP values gradually become negative with depths (−45 to −170 mV), indicating anoxic conditions prevail in the Meghna sediments. The REE patterns of all lithotypes in the study areas are similar and are comparable to the average upper continental crust. Arsenic and other trace elements (Pb, Zn, Cu, Ni, and Cr) have greater concentrations in the silts and clays compared to those in the sands. Positive correlation between As and Fe was found in the sediments, indicating As may be adsorbed on Fe oxides in aquifer sediments.     

Poisons, pragmatic governance and deliberative democracy: The arsenic crisis in Bangladesh

The paper applies some of the principles of pragmatism to the environmental health crisis of arsenic pollution in the groundwater of Bangladesh. This hazard affects between 28 and 57 million people and it has been called “the largest mass poisoning of a population in history”. Such hyperbole aside, the authors consider the dysfunctional nature of central and local government in Bangladesh, which at all levels can be said to have failed water consumers. This leads to a discussion of the nature of governance generally, particularly with regard to two principles derived from the pragmatism of John Dewey: first, an orientation to political action through local, community-based experimentation; and, second, a conviction that participatory democracy draws its strength from the beliefs and attitudes distributed in social networks. The paper then assesses a number of interventions, for instance the World Bank’s large-scale Bangladesh Arsenic Mitigation Water Supply Project which has faced administrative problems since its inception in 1997 and was very slow to find its feet. NGOs with a stake in arsenic mitigation are also highlighted, particularly for their role in the so-called franchise state. It is argued that a number of conditions of inertia and resistance explain the sluggish response to the arsenic hazard. Indeterminacy about the science and technology of arsenic is one factor, and another is the distribution of power at the local level. The paper argues that future policies and projects would do well to consider deliberative democracy in guises appropriate to rural Bangladesh. This must include better information availability and opportunities for participation at the village level, for instance in civic science. The overall conclusion is that pragmatic principles are helpful in promoting community-focused mitigation measures but that accountability is essential if policies are to avoid problems of local power, patronage and clientelism.     

Geostatistical regionalization of glacial aquitard thickness in northwestern Germany, based on fuzzy kriging

In many instances hydrogeological parameters obtained by conventional methods for selected localities within an aquifer or an aquitard are not sufficient for adequate regionalization at the scale of the entire layer. Here, we demonstrate an application of the fuzzy kriging method in regionalization of hydrogeological data, in which the set of conventional, crisp values is supplemented by imprecise information subjectively estimated by an expert. It is believed that such an approach eventually may reflect the real-world conditions more closely than a traditional crisp-value approach, because the former does not impose exactness artificially on phenomena which are diffuse by their nature. Spatial interpolation was done for the thickness of one of the major aquitards (till and glaciolacustrine clay) in northwestern Germany. The dataset consists of 329 crisp values from boreholes supplemented by 172 imprecise values defined as fuzzy numbers. It is demonstrated that the reliability of regionalization was higher, compared to regionalization performed with the crisp dataset only. Fuzzy kriging was performed with FUZZEKS (Fuzzy Evaluation and Kriging System) developed at the Ecosystem Research Center at the University of Kiel.     

Geostatistical case studies of the advantages of lognormal-de Wijsian kriging with mean for a base metal mine and a gold mine

Parallel variogram analyses, block kriging, and follow-up studies were effected for the lead content of part of the Prieska copper-zinc ore body and for the gold content of the highly variable Breef in a section of the Loraine gold mine, based first on untransformed values and second on logarithmically transformed values using the lognormal-de Wijsian model. For both models the effect was also analyzed of using the population mean or ignoring it. Practical follow-up comparisons confirm theoretical considerations and show that on these mines conditional biases can be eliminated conveniently by kriging with mean; also that the lognormal-de Wijsian model with mean gives the best results.     

Contrasting sorption behaviours affecting groundwater arsenic concentration in Kandal Province,Cambodia

Natural arsenic(As)contamination of groundwater which provides drinking water and/or irrigation supplies remains a major public health issue,particularly in South and Southeast Asia.A number of studies have evaluated various aspects of the biogeochemical controls on As mobilization in aquifers typical to this region,however many are predicated on the assumption that key biogeochemical processes may be deduced by sampled water chemistry.The validity of this assumption has not been clearly established even though the role of sorption/desorption of As and other heavy metals onto Fe/Mn(hydr)oxides is an important control in As mobilization.Here,selective chemical extractions of sand-rich and clay-rich sediments from an As-affected aquifer in Kandal Province,Cambodia,were undertaken to explore the potential role of partial re-equilibrium through sorption/desorption reactions of As and related solutes(Fe,Mn and P)between groundwater and the associated solid aquifer matrix.In general,groundwater As is strongly affected by both pH and Eh throughout the study area.However,contrasting sorption behaviour is observed in two distinct sand-dominated(T-Sand)and clay dominated(T-Clay)transects,and plausibly attributed to differing dominant lithologies,biogeochemical and/or hydrogeological conditions.Sorption/desorption processes appear to be re-setting groundwater As concentrations in both transects,but to varying extents and in different ways.In T-Sand,which is typically highly reducing,correlations suggest that dissolved As may be sequestered by sorption/re-adsorption to Fe-bearing mineral phases and/or sedimentary organic matter;in T-Clay Eh is a major control on As mobilization although binding/occlusion of Fe-bearing minerals to sedimentary organic matter may also occur.Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted with groups categorised by transect and by Eh,and the output correlations support the contrasting sorption behaviours encountered in this study area.Irrespective of transect,however,the key biogeochemical processes which initially control As mobilization in such aquifers,may be "masked" by the re-setting of As concentrations through in-aquifer sorption/desorption processes.     

Redox control of arsenic mobilization in Bangladesh groundwater

Detailed hydrochemical measurements, δ³⁴S_SO4 and ³H analyses were performed on 37 groundwater samples collected during February 1999, January and March 2000 from 6 locations in eastern and southeastern Bangladesh to examine redox processes that lead to As mobilization in groundwater. The study sites were chosen based on available nation-wide As surveys to span the entire spectrum of As concentrations in Bangladesh groundwater, and to represent 3 of 5 major geological units of the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta: uplifted Pleistocene terrace, fluvial flood plain and delta plain. Arsenic was found to be mobilized under Fe-reducing conditions in shallow aquifers (<35 m depth), presumably of Holocene age. It remained mobile under SO₄-reducing conditions, suggesting that authigenic sulfide precipitation does not constitute a significant sink for As in these groundwaters. The redox state of the water was characterized by a variety of parameters including dissolved O₂, NO₃⁻, Mn²⁺, Fe²⁺ concentrations, and SO₄²⁻/Cl⁻ ratios. High dissolved [As] (> 50 μg/l; or > 0.7 μM ) were always accompanied by high dissolved [HCO₃⁻] (> 4 mM), and were close to saturation with respect to calcite. Groundwater enriched in As (200–800 μg/l; or 2.7–10.7 μM) and phosphate (30–100 μM) but relatively low in dissolved Fe (5–40 μM) probably resulted from re-oxidation of reducing, As and Fe enriched water. This history was deduced from isotopic signatures of δ³⁴S_SO4 and ³H₂O (³H) to delineate the nature of redox changes for some of the reducing groundwaters. In contrast, As is not mobilized in presumed Pleistocene aquifers, both shallow (30–60 m) and deep (150–270 m), because conditions were not reducing enough due to lack of sufficient O₂ demand.     

Probabilistic analysis of collapsing soil by indicator kriging

Collapsing soils, which undergo a large decrease in bulk volume virtually instantaneously upon saturation and/or load application, are found in arid and semi-arid regions of the world. In the western and midwestern U.S., problems resulting from collapsing soils are being recognized due to rapid industrial and urban developments. A probabilistic analysis of the distribution of such soils would be a rational approach for quantifying risk involved for a project in an area where such soils are found. Indicator kriging was applied to seven sets of collapse and collapse-related soil parameters to obtain the probability that a certain parameter is more or less than a predefined critical value for low, medium, and high collapse susceptibility. Results are presented in the form of probability contour plots with known variance of estimation of the probability. The ability to predict the probability of occurrence of collapse and collapse-related soil parameters for different critical values with a known degree of certainty is invaluable to planners, developers, and geotechnical engineers.     

Comparison of two techniques for applying disjunctive kriging: The Gaussian anamorphosis model versus the direct statistical inference of the bivariate distributions

Indicator cokriging is an alternative to disjunctive kriging for estimation of spatial distributions. One way to determine which of these techniques is more accurate for estimation of spatial distributions is to apply each to a particular type of data. A procedure is developed for evaluation of disjunctive kriging and indicator cokriging for such an application. Application of this procedure to earthquake ground motion data found disjunctive kriging to be at least as accurate as indicator cokriging for estimation of spatial distributions of peak horizontal acceleration. Indicator cokriging was superior for all other types of earthquake ground motion data.     

Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore,Maryland and Virginia,USA

Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas.