Analysis of survival curves in seasonally mated pastoral goat herds in northern Kenya using logistic regression techniques

In order to assess the effect of controlled seasonal breeding on survival performance of pastoral goat flocks, a systematic breeding programme was initiated in a herd of small East African goats over a period of 4 years in Isiolo District, northern Kenya. This papers presents an analysis of survival rates observed in six different mating seasons. The statistical analysis is based on modelling hazard functions parametrically over time using logistic regression and polynomial spline functions. With respect to kid survival, litter size and parity of dam failed to reach statistical significance after adjustment was made for the effects of birth weight and milk yield until weaning. Highly significant interactions were found between time factors and the effect of mating season, indicating non-proportionality of death risks across mating seasons. Confining mating to the period between June and November is likely to confer a distinctive advantage in terms of young livestock survival. In contrast, joining does during the short dry season leads to kid mortality rates of about 50%, and should therefore be avoided. Doe survival was evaluated in terms of mating season, production cycle, parity, and reproductive status. The ranking of mating season groups with respect to doe survival was similar to that observed in kids, although the differences were much smaller and non-significant. The lowest annual mortality rate was observed when breeding females were mated during the long dry season. It is concluded that confining breeding to the long dry season can be an effective management intervention to reduce mortality rates in pastoral goat flocks.     

Timing of breeding in free-ranging Ethiopian hedgehogs,Paraechinus aethiopicus,from Qatar

There is little information pertaining to the breeding behaviour and reproductive biology of free-ranging hedgehog populations outside of Europe. We monitored the seasonal changes in courtship behaviour and the presence of new young animals from a free-ranging Ethiopian hedgehog population in Qatar between 2010 and 2012. Based on frequencies of courtship behaviour and deduced frequencies of successful mating, the mating season of the Ethiopian hedgehog is believed to start in January and continue through until July with a clear peak during the February/March period. We propose the existence of two mating peaks, one in February/March and the second in June, suggesting that free-ranging Ethiopian hedgehogs breed more than twice a year in Qatar. Successful mating in late winter/early spring may be more important for the increasing the inclusive fitness of the parents based on the number of young individuals that survive beyond one month of age.     

Perspectives on survival, phenology, litter fall and decomposition, and caloric content ofAvicennia marinain the Arabian Gulf region

This study was conducted on a naturally growing population in Al-Khor mangrove swamps in Qatar during the years 1993–1995.Avicennia marinais the only mangrove species growing in Qatar and the Arabian Gulf region. The survivorship curve showed that early reproductive stages, starting from flower buds to seedlings, are at-risk relative to juvenile and adult individuals. The survival of adult plants is age-dependent. The phenological cycle indicated that the reproductive period extends from April to October, while vegetative activity occurs throughout the year with minimum growth during late autumn and early winter. Productivity estimated from litter fall showed considerable differences between seasons. Litter fall is bimodal, with the first peak prior to the start of the reproductive cycle and the second peak before the end of summer or early autumn. Total litter fall decreased from a maximum of 188 g m⁻²month⁻¹to a minimum of 80 g m⁻²month⁻¹. Litter decomposition was lower in winter than in the summer months. Calorific content of the decomposing litter was consistent with over 90% of litter energy lost over a 1-year period. The calorific content of buried leaves decreased from 6.0585 kcal g⁻¹dry weight to 0.0532 kcal g⁻¹dry weight after 1 year. Major human impacts on mangrove ecosystems in the region include oil pollution, solid and liquid waste disposal, coastal development, marine dredging, recreation activities, overgrazing, wood harvest, diversion of fresh water runoff and pest control.     

Timing of reproduction of a cold desert viperid snake from North America,the Great Basin rattlesnake (Crotalus lutosus)

In this study, we examined the reproductive tracts of preserved specimens of the Great Basin rattlesnake (Crotalus lutosus) to investigate the reproductive strategies used by the only species of rattlesnakes widely occurring in a cold desert. The vitellogenic cycle of female rattlesnakes spanned over two consecutive years: females started vitellogenesis in late spring/early summer, and ovulated in the summer of the next year. This contrasts with the female reproductive cycle of other rattlesnake species from warmer regions of North America, which typically initiate vitellogenesis in summer/fall, and ovulate in late spring of the next year. On the other hand, the reproductive cycle of male C. lutosus conformed well to those described for other rattlesnakes; that is, testes were active (i.e., sperm formation) in summer. The sexual segments of the kidneys of males were hypertrophied in summer, suggesting an unimodal summer mating season. Our findings suggests that the relatively short active season (i.e., 4–5 months) experienced by these snakes in the Great Basin of North America has implications for the timing of female reproductive events, such as an early onset of vitellogenesis, a late time of ovulation, and possibly a restricted period for giving birth.     

Dust and environment in the Southern High Plains of North America

Continuous measurements of dust reveal the intermittent nature of dust events within the Southern High Plains of North America. Dust events appear as sudden peaks that project outward from a much lower background dust concentration. The measured dust record appears to follow a regular annual cycle with most dust events occurring in spring and considerably fewer during other seasons. The annual dust cycle reflects seasonal changes in environmental factors such as wind speed, surface cover, and moisture conditions. Most dust events are associated with a combination of strong winds, negligible surface cover, and dry conditions, all of which occur most frequently during the spring season. Wind speed alone is found to be an imperfect indicator of dust levels in the Southern High Plains because of the moderating effects of other important environmental factors such as humidity and surface cover. However, if one limits consideration to dry and bare conditions, dust concentration exhibits a positive correlation with daily wind speeds above 4 m s⁻¹and a negligible correlation for light winds.     

Abundance and diversity of small-bird assemblages in the Monte desert, Argentina

Assemblages of small bird species (<90 g body mass) from the Monte desert in Argentina were studied to analyze spatial and temporal variation in abundance and species richness. Mean species richness was higher during breeding season than in non-breeding season. The same pattern was observed in aerial insectivores, while granivores and substrate insectivores did not differ between breeding and non-breeding seasons. Overall bird abundance was similar across seasons. Species richness was positively correlated with bird abundance and negatively correlated with dominance; bird abundance and dominance were not correlated. These patterns could be explained by distinct responses of functional groups of birds; dominant species were granivores in the non-breeding season and aerial insectivores during the breeding season, and bird abundance in functional groups changed according to food supply. Most species are residents or regular migrants, while there are few nomadic and transient species. Predictable annual fluctuations in rainfall and resource availability should favor a migratory strategy more than nomadic movements. Similarly, breeding is strongly seasonal and most species start breeding when the first summer rains have generally not yet fallen. Finally, concordances in assemblage structure at local and regional scale suggest that similar mechanisms are acting on the local bird assemblages across the Monte.     

The effects of seasonal changes to in-stream vegetation cover on patterns of flow and accumulation of sediment

In-stream macrophytes are typically abundant in nutrient-rich chalk streams during the spring and summer months and modify the in-stream environment by altering river flows and trapping sediments. We present results from an inter-disciplinary study of two river reaches in the River Frome catchment, Dorset (UK). The investigation focused on how Ranunculus (water crowfoot), the dominant submerged macrophyte in the study reaches, modified patterns of flow and sediment deposition. Measurements were taken on a monthly basis throughout 2003 to determine seasonal patterns in macrophyte cover, associated changes in the distributions of flow velocities and the character and amount of accumulated fine sediment within stands of Ranunculus.Maximum in-stream cover of macrophytes exceeded 70% at both sites. Flow velocities were less than 0.1 m s^− 1 within the stands of Ranunculus and accelerated to 0.8 m s^− 1 outside the stands. During the early stages of the growth of Ranunculus, fine sediment mostly accumulated within the upstream section of the plant but the area of fine sediment accumulation extended into the downstream trailing section of the plant later in the growing season. The fine sediment accumulations were dominated by sand (63–1000 μm) with silts and clays (0.37–63 μm) comprising < 10% by volume. The content of organic matter in the accumulated sediments varied within stands, between reaches and through the growing season with values ranging between 9 and 105 mg g^− 1 dry weight. At the reach scale the two sites exhibited different growth forms of Ranunculus which created distinctive patterns of flow and fine sediment deposition.     

锡林郭勒草原地表反照率对气候变化的响应

在对锡林郭勒草原地区MODIS的地表反照率产品(MCD43C3)的可靠性进行评估的基础上,利用该产品分析了2002～2009年锡林郭勒草原地表反照率的变化及其与温度和降水的关系。结果表明:(1)MODIS的反演结果能够很好地反映地表反照率的季节变化和年际变化特征;(2)锡林郭勒草原可见光波段反照率的季节变化呈V字形,低谷出现在8月上旬,近红外波段的则呈U字形,低值时段为6～9月;(3)可见光和近红外波段反照率的年际变化特征基本一致,其与温度和降水的年际波动有显著相关关系,其中,温度与地表反照率仅在生长季初期和末期显著相关,分别是负相关(相关系数为-0.67)和正相关(0.63),降水量与地表反照率在整个生长季都显著负相关(-0.54～-0.76),并且其影响效果有2～3个月的滞后期。     

昆明地区降水量时空分布特征

近年来由于降水异常所带来的干旱、城市内涝等气象灾害越来越受到人们的关注.采用回归方法对昆明12个大监站近43年来的降水量时空变化特征进行分析,发现昆明地区年降水量减少,春、夏、秋的降水也减少,但冬季降水略增加;年、四季降水有较为明显年代际变化趋势,且存在一个或多个突变点.降水量变化具有一定的区域分布特征,市区及以东以南地区夏季及年降水量偏少显著,春季降水西北部地区偏多其余偏少,秋季降水为一致减少型,冬季降水西南部减少其余大部持平或略增加.     

The extended reproductive season of tent tortoises (Psammobates tentorius tentorius): A response to an arid and unpredictable environment

In arid environments, limited resources may compromise allocations to reproduction, while unpredictable rainfall may confound the timing of reproductive events. Here we evaluate how female tent tortoises (Psammobates tentorius tentorius) allocate resources to reproduction while coping with low and unpredictable rainfall. Vitellogenesis in tent tortoises started in autumn, when rainfall was highest and most predictable. Tent tortoises required a high body condition and large follicles to ovulate their first clutches, but a temperature threshold for ovulation may have prevented breeding during the winter months. Females produced small clutches (1.78±0.63; 1–3 eggs) but produced several clutches (3.7±1.6; 1–6 clutches) from spring to late autumn. Clutch frequency (CF) was correlated to body condition, and CF rather than clutch size (CS) determined annual fecundity. Although body size influenced egg size, body size had no effect on CS, CF or fecundity. There was no trade-off between relative egg size and CS. The small clutches of tent tortoises limit the risks of producing too many offspring at one time, a scenario that may leave females without resources for their own needs. When clutches are small, an extended breeding season enhances reproductive output by providing females more time and opportunities to leave offspring.     

Vertical material flux under seasonal sea ice in the Okhotsk Sea north of Hokkaido, Japan

Downward material fluxes under seasonal sea ice were measured using a time-series sediment trap installed at an offshore site in the Okhotsk Sea north of Hokkaido, Japan, from 13 January to 23 March 2005. The maximum fluxes of lithogenic material (753 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and organic matter (mainly detritus; 333 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) were recorded during the period in which sea ice drifted ashore and increased in extent, from 13 January to 9 February. Organic matter as fecal pellets (81–93 mg m⁻² day⁻¹) and opal as biosilica (51–67 mg m⁻² day⁻¹), representing diatom fluxes, were abundant in sediment trap samples obtained during the period of full sea ice coverage from 10 February to 9 March. Microscopic observations revealed that fecal pellets were largely diatom frustules, suggesting that zooplankton actively grazed on ice algae during the period of full sea ice coverage. During the period of retreating sea ice, from 10 to 23 March, the phytoplankton flux showed a rapid increase (from 9.5 to 22.5 × 10⁶ cells m⁻² day⁻¹), reflecting their release into the water column as the sea ice melted. Our results demonstrate that the quantity and quality of sinking biogenic and lithogenic materials vary with the seasonal extent of sea ice in mid-winter.     

Beach–dune interactions on the dry–temperate Danube delta coast

Beach–dune seasonal elevation changes, aeolian sand transport measurements, bathymetric surveys and shoreline evolution assessments were used to investigate annual and seasonal patterns of dune development on Sfântu Gheorghe beach, the Danube delta coast, from 1997 to 2004. Dune volume increased consistently (1.96 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1 to 5.1 m³ m^− 1 y^− 1) over this 7-year period with higher rates in the southward (downdrift) direction. Dune aggradation is periodically limited by storms, each of which marks a new evolutionary phase of the beach–dune system. As a consequence of the variable beach morphology and vegetation density during a year, foredune growth occurs during the April–December interval while between December and April a slightly erosive tendency is present. The pattern of erosion and deposition shown by the topographical surveys is in good agreement with the sand transport measurements and demonstrates the presence of a vigorous sand flux over the foredunes which is 20–50% smaller than on the beach. This high sand flux, due to low precipitation and sparse vegetation cover, creates an aerodynamically efficient morphology on the seaward dune slope. The seaward dune face accretes during low to medium onshore winds (5.5–12 m s^− 1) and erodes during high winds (> 12 m s^− 1).     

Development of gullies and sediment production in the black soil region of northeastern China

Gully erosion is an important environmental hazard in the black soil region of northeastern China. It is a primary sediment source in the region which needs appropriate soil conservation practices. Gully incision in rolling hills typical of this region was monitored using real-time kinematic GPS to assess the rates of gully development and the resultant sediment production. From 2002 to 2005, gully heads in the study area retreated between 15.4 and 33.5 m, giving an average retreat rate of 8.4 m yr^− 1. Field measurements showed that total sediment production due to gully erosion during the three years ranged between 257 and 1854 m³ yr^− 1, which is equivalent to 326 to 2355 t yr^− 1, with gully-head retreat accounting for 0 to 21.7% (4.4% in average). The sediment delivery ratio was especially high during the summer rainy season (56% in average). Sediment production by ephemeral gullies and permanent gullies was 1.5 times greater than that from surface erosion. Gully heads retreated faster in the spring freeze–thaw period than in the summer. The stage of gully development could be identified based on short-term changes in the gully erosion rate.     

Comparisons between the reproductive biology of black bream Acanthopagrus butcheri (Teleostei: Sparidae) in four estuaries with widely differing characteristics

The reproductive biology of Acanthopagrus butcheri has been studied in the permanently open Swan River and intermittently open Moore River estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia (31--32 °S) and in the permanently open Nornalup Walpole and normally closed Wellstead estuaries on the southern coast of Western Australia (34--35 °S). Trends exhibited by gonadosomatic indices, gonadal maturity stages and the sizes and developmental stages of the oocytes demonstrate that A. butcher typically spawns in spring and early summer. However, spawning occurred in salinities ranging from as low as 3.5-8 g L^–1 in the Moore River Estuary to as high as 41-45 g L^–1 in the Wellstead Estuary. Furthermore, water temperatures during spawning were greater in the two northern estuaries (19.7--28.5 °C) than in the two southern and cooler estuaries (17.5--23.4 °C). Histological studies strongly indicate that A. butcheri spawn more than once in a breeding season and demonstrate that the development of its oocytes exhibits group synchrony sensu de Vlaming (1983). The ages and total lengths at which, on average, female and male A. butcheri both first attain maturity in the Swan River Estuary were ca 2 years and ca 215 mm. However, the age at which individual fish in that system reach maturity was influenced by body size. This suggests that the attainment of first maturity at an older age but smaller length in the Moore River and Nornalup Walpole estuaries than is the case in the Swan River Estuary is a consequence of the slower growth rates of A. butcheri in those estuaries. The combination of the young age (ca 2 years) but small length (ca 145 mm) at which maturity is first attained in the Wellstead Estuary could have resulted from selection pressures brought about by high mortality rates and/or heavy fishing pressure in this estuary. The mean fecundity of A. butcheri, based on the combined number of yolk vesicle and yolk granule oocytes found in ovaries just prior to the onset of spawning, was 1580 × 10³. The significance of the sizes at first maturity, minimum legal length for capture, mesh selectivity data and closure of certain regions of estuaries to fishing for the management of the recreational and commercial fishery for A. butcheri is discussed.     

表层雪中稳定同位素季节变化及其与水汽输送的关系——以天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川积累区为例

根据2002年9月至2005年12月在天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川积累区采集的表层雪样品,揭示了该区表层雪中δ<'18>O值的季节变化特征,讨论了水汽输送对降水中δ<'18>O值变化的影响.研究表明,天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川表层雪中δ<'18>O值季节变化显著,变幅可达12.59‰左右,其变化趋势和气温的变化趋势基本一致,...     

Temporal and spatial variation in soil respiration of poplar plantations at different developmental stages in Xinjiang, China

Soil respiration is essential for the understanding of carbon sequestration of forest plantations. Soil respiration of poplar plantations at three developmental stages was investigated in 2007 and 2008. The results showed that mean soil respiration rate was 5.74, 5.10 and 4.71 μmol CO₂ m⁻² s⁻¹ for stands of 2-, 7- and 12-year-old, respectively, during the growing season. Soil temperature decreased with increasing plantation age and canopy cover. As plantation matured, fine root biomass also declined. Multiple regression analysis suggested that soil temperature in the upper layer could explain 73-77% of the variation in soil respiration and fine root biomass in the upper layer could explain further 5-8%. The seasonal dynamics of soil respiration was mainly controlled by soil temperature rhythm and fine root growth since soil water availability remained adequate due to monthly irrigation. Spatial variability of soil respiration varied considerably among three age classes, with the coefficient of variation of 28.8%, 22.4% and 19.6% for stands of 2-, 7- and 12-year-old, respectively. The results highlight the importance of the development stage in soil carbon budget over a rotation, since both temporal and spatial variation in soil respiration displayed significant differences at different developmental stages.     

Controlling introduced predators in the Gibson Desert of Western Australia

Three introduced predators, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo), the fox (Vulpes vulpes) and the feral cat (Felis catus) are widespread throughout the arid interior of Western Australia. While the dingo has been present for an estimated 3500–4000 years, the fox and the feral cat are relatively recent arrivals and have been implicated in the modern decline and in some cases extinction of arid zone fauna, especially medium size mammals. This paper reports on a long-term, large-scale project aimed at developing control strategies for these introduced predators. Broad area control of foxes and dingoes in the Gibson Desert using 40–60 g dried meat baits impregnated with the poison sodium monofluoroacetate (1080) and delivered by aircraft at a density of 5 baits km⁻² proved to be highly effective. Following a single aerial baiting of some 1600 km², foxes and dingoes were virtually eradicated from a core area for up to 15 months, but feral cats appeared to increase in abundance. Two aerial baitings (each 400 km²) carried out during periods of below average rainfall using a small (about 30 g) fresh meat bait developed to be attractive to feral cats reduced their abundance by an estimated 75% and 100% when baits were delivered at a density of 10 and 22 km⁻², respectively. A third aerial baiting at a density of 11 baits km⁻² carried out during a period of above average rainfall reduced feral cat density by only 25% when surveyed 3 months after baiting. Baiting density, frequency and season are key factors likely to affect the impact of baiting on feral cat populations. Preliminary studies reveal that the home range of feral cats in this environment varies from about 700 to 1200 ha. Reptiles and small native mammals form the major dietary items of feral cats and the seasonal variation in abundance of these items is likely to affect bait uptake. These observations have important implications for control strategies.     

The ecology of Lerista labialis (Scincidae) in the Simpson Desert: reproduction and diet

This study investigated the diet and reproductive cycle of the southern sandslider skink Lerista labialis, in the dunefields of the Simpson Desert, central Australia. We dissected preserved specimens to obtain gut contents and measure gonad volume, and also live-captured animals from 1999 to 2000 to assess the impact of rainfall on population structure and body condition. This skink breeds during the austral summer. Males start spermatogenesis in July and testes volume is largest in December. Females have enlarged ovarian follicles in November and produce oviducal eggs from November to February. One or more clutches of two eggs are produced per breeding season. L. labialis specializes on termites, which represent 78% of the diet by percentage occurrence. The remaining 22% of this skink's diet comprises Hemiptera, Neuroptera and unknown prey items. Body condition, and probably increased reproduction and juvenile survival, were higher in 2000 (wet year) than 1999 (relatively dry year); proportion of juveniles also increased in the population in autumn, winter and summer 2000 compared to the previous year. Late rainfall in autumn 2000 may have triggered these demographic changes by increasing prey accessibility. Long-term research is required into growth rates, longevity and inter-annual population dynamics of L. labialis to fully evaluate its life history strategy.     

Growth, ionic and osmotic relations of an Allenrolfea occidentalis population in an inland salt playa of the Great Basin Desert

Variation in growth, physiology and ionic relations patterns of Allenrolfea occidentalis, a perennial halophyte of dry habitats, was studied under field conditions from May 1996 to November 1997. An A. occidentalis community has a characteristic soil pH of 7·3–8·3. During the two years, the population was exposed to great variations in soil salinity, from 29 to 146 dS m⁻¹, and soil moisture, ranging from drought (9·2%) to wet (19%). The salt concentrations were significantly higher in the surface soil layers than in the subsurface layers. Seasonal changes in dry weight are directly related to soil salinity stress. Allenrolfea occidentalis had greater growth and biomass production under saline conditions. Na⁺and Cl⁻ions were accumulated in plant tissues in much greater amounts than K⁺, Ca²⁺, and Mg²⁺. Soil salinities were significantly reduced at the end of the growing season. Water potentials of the shoots decreased significantly with increasing salinity. The plant (F_v/F_mratio) was more affected by salinity and irradiation levels during the summer period.     

Temporal and trophic niche overlap in a guild of flower-visiting ants in a seasonal semi-arid tropical environment

Studies of assemblages of insects that have largely agonistic relationships with plants are rare compared to those that study mutualistic relationships between plants and animals. Flowers have evolved multiple defense mechanisms to protect against nectar-thieving ants, which may decrease plant reproductive success. We evaluated season-specific patterns of biodiversity as well as trophic and temporal niche overlap for flower-visiting ants in the Brazilian Caatingas (dry scrub, tropical vegetation). Ant richness and evenness did not vary with season; however, Shannon diversity and Berger–Parker dominance were greater and lower, respectively, during the green season compared to the dry season. Trophic overlap was greater during the dry season than the green season. In contrast, temporal overlap was greater during the green season than the dry season. The most common flower-visiting ant (Camponotus blandus) exhibited season specific trophic and temporal niches. Flower-visiting ants exhibited seasonal complementarity, but within seasons species exhibited both trophic and temporal overlap, suggesting that competition for floral resources is not a strong structuring force in this guild.