A new evaluation of seismic hazard for the northwestern part of Saudi Arabia

Natural Hazards - A new evaluation of seismic hazard in the northwestern part of Saudi Arabia area has been carried out, for the minimization and mitigation of earthquake losses. The study area...     

Improving the level of seismic hazard parameters in Saudi Arabia using earthquake location

Saudi Arabia is characterized as largely aseismic; however, the tectonic plate boundaries that surround it are very active. To improve characterization of seismicity and ground motion hazard, the Saudi Arabian Digital Seismic Network (SANDSN) was installed in 1998 and continues to be operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology (KACST). This article describes research performed to improve seismic hazard parameters using earthquake location and magnitude calibration of the high-quality SANDSN data. The SANDSN consists of 38 seismic stations, 27 broadband, and 11 short period. All data are telemetered in real time to a central facility at KACST in Riyadh. The SANDSN stations show low background noise levels and have good signal detection capabilities; however, some stations show cultural noise at frequencies above 1.0 Hz. We assessed the SANDSN event location capabilities by comparing KACST locations with well-determined locations derived from ground truth or global observations. While a clear location bias exists when using the global average iasp91 earth model, the locations can be improved by using regional models optimized for different tectonic source regions. The article presents detailed analysis of some events and Dead Sea explosions where we found gross errors in estimated locations. New velocity models we calculated that should improve estimated locations of regional events in three specific regions include (1) Gulf of Aqabah—Dead Sea region, (2) Arabian Shield, and (3) Arabian Platform. Recently, these models were applied to the SANDSN to improve local and teleseismic event locations and to develop an accurate magnitude scale for Saudi Arabia. The Zagros Thrust presents the most seismic hazard to eastern Saudi Arabia because of the frequent occurrence of earthquakes. Although these events are 200 km or further from the Arabian coast, wave propagation through sedimentary structure of the Gulf causes long-duration ground motions for periods between 3 and 10 s. Such ground motions could excite response in large engineered structures (e.g., tall buildings and long bridges) such as was experienced after the November 22, 2005 Qeshm Island earthquake off the southern coast of Iran.     

Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Based on Area Source Model and Seismicity Data

A global seismic hazard assessment was conducted using the probabilistic approach in conjunction with a modified means of evaluating the seismicity parameters. The earthquake occurrence rate function was formulated for area source cells from recent instrumental earthquake catalogs. For the statistical application of the G–R relation of each source cell, the upper- and lower-bound magnitudes were determined from, respectively, historical earthquake data using a Kernel smoothing operator and detection thresholds of recent catalogs. The seismic hazard at a particular site was obtained by integrating the hazard contribution from influencing cells, and the results were combined with the Poisson distribution to obtain the seismic hazard in terms of the intensity at 10% probability of exceedance for the next 50 years. The seismic hazard maps for three countries, constructed using the same method, agree well with the existing maps obtained by different methods. The method is applicable to both oceanic and continental regions, and for any specific duration of time. It can be used for those regions without detailed geological information or where the relation between existing faults and earthquake occurrence is not clear.     

Role of crustal heterogeneity beneath Andaman–Nicobar Islands and its implications for coastal hazard

The Andaman–Nicobar (A–N) Islands region has attracted many geo-scientists because of its unique location and complex geotectonic settings. The recent occurrence of tsunamis due to the megathrust tsunamigenic north Sumatra earthquake (Mw 9.3) with a series of aftershocks in the A–N region caused severe damage to the coastal regions of India and Indonesia. Several pieces of evidence suggest that the occurrence of earthquakes in the A–N region is related to its complex geodynamical processes. In this study, it has been inferred that deep-seated structural heterogeneities related to dehydration of the subducting Indian plate beneath the Island could have induced the process of brittle failure through crustal weakening to contribute immensely to the coastal hazard in the region. The present study based on 3-D P-wave tomography of the entire rupture zone of the A–N region using the aftershocks of the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.3) clearly demonstrates the role of crustal heterogeneity in seismogenesis and in causing the strong shakings and tsunamis. The nature and extent of the imaged crustal heterogeneity beneath the A–N region may have facilitated the degree of damage and extent of coastal hazards in the region. The 3-D velocity heterogeneities reflect asperities that manifest what type of seismogenic layers exist beneath the region to dictate the size of earthquakes and thereby they help to assess the extent of earthquake vulnerability in the coastal regions. The inference of this study may be used as one of the potential inputs for assessment of seismic vulnerability to the region, which may be considered for evolving earthquake hazard mitigation model for the coastal areas of the Andaman–Nicobar Islands region.     

Impact of flash flood recharge on groundwater quality and its suitability in the Wadi Baysh Basin,Western Saudi Arabia: an integrated approach

An integrated approach was used to evaluate the impact of flash flood recharge on groundwater quality and its suitability for drinking, irrigation, livestock and poultry uses in the Wadi Baysh Basin, Western Saudi Arabia. Analyses of 182 groundwater samples, collected from the study area before and after a flash flood (FF) event, show that the average concentrations of TDS, Mg, Na, Cl, NO₃ and EC decreased significantly after the event. The major water types (mixed CaMgCl, NaCl and CaCl) indicate that the infiltration of surface water from FF recharge has a great influence on groundwater chemistry. Drinking water suitability maps, created using WHO standards, indicate that wells located in the upstream region are suitable for drinking despite their high TDS and total hardness (TH) values. Groundwater in the coastal region is unsuitable due to its high salinity, high TH and high concentrations of major ions. The suitability of groundwater for irrigational use was assessed using salinity, sodium adsorption ratio, bicarbonate hazard, residual sodium carbonate, Kelly’s ratio, magnesium hazard, sodium percentage and permeability index values, which indicated that groundwater in the study region is suitable for most soils and crops. After FF, groundwater quality is improved by dilution, especially in the downstream region. USSL classification shows that the majority of the water samples are in the C3S1, C4S2, and C3S2 classes and are therefore suitable for the irrigation of salt-tolerant crops. Irrigational suitability maps suggest that wells in the upstream region are suitable for irrigation, whereas wells located near to the coast are unfit for irrigation. This study implies that construction of check dams in the dry valleys (wadies) may improve the groundwater quality in the area.     

Development of storm hyetographs for flood forecasting in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

This paper presents the derivation of the design storm hyetograph patterns for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on real rainfall events from meteorological stations distributed throughout the Kingdom. Two thousand twenty-seven rainfall storms for a 20–28-year period were collected and analyzed covering 13 regions of the Kingdom. Four distinct dimensionless rainfall hyetograph patterns have been obtained over the Kingdom, while two patterns have been obtained for each individual region because of the lack of data for long-duration storms in individual regions. The resulting dimensionless rainfall patterns for each region can be used to develop storm hyetographs for any design duration, total rainfall depth and return period. It has been shown that the developed storm hyetographs have different features from other storm patterns that are commonly used in arid zones. The study recommends using these curves for the design of hydraulic structures in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and regions alike.     

Seasonal variation of solar irradiance and sunshine duration in Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia is a huge area with diverse climatic and topographical features. This diversity in climate is augmented by seasonal weather variations. The study discusses solar irradiance and sunshine duration in terms of seasonal weather systems. Sunshine duration and solar irradiance maps show that the East Mediterranean weather systems (such as Cyprus low) in winter affect the majority of the geographical regions in Saudi Arabia. In spring and autumn, Sudan low becomes more active than Cyprus low, especially in the west and central regions. Sunshine duration in April is 47% compared to 50% in January. Sunshine duration in the southwest region is affected by the rainy and wet summer monsoon which reduces sunshine duration to 33% in summer (July), while it is 43% in winter (January). In addition, the study uses the Angstrom equation to estimate solar irradiance. The absolute relative error between estimated and observed solar irradiance ranges between 2 and 10% in the majority of cases, with a few cases exceeding 13%.     

Net earthquake hazard and elements at risk (NEaR) map creation for city of Istanbul via spatial multi-criteria decision analysis

The creation of earthquake hazard maps requires various datasets with selected attenuation relations. Based on the selected attenuation relation, the calculation time varies from half an hour to a couple of days. The length of time needed to create an earthquake hazard map also depends on the resolution of the resulting map. The time gets longer as the resolution of the resulting earthquake hazard map gets higher. The basic form of an attenuation relation requires complex calculation algorithms including geospatial information related to the region of interest. Nowadays, next-generation attenuation (NGA) models are introduced to generate more realistic earthquake hazard maps. However, the more complex the attenuation relation is, the longer time will be required to create a hazard map. This paper offers a new method to create high-resolution earthquake hazard maps, faster than using traditional attenuation relation methods, by using an analytic hierarchy process of spatial multi-criteria decision analysis and geographic information systems. This method has been generated and tested for the city of Istanbul. The resulting maps are compared with the earthquake hazard maps created for the city of Istanbul by using the NGA model of Boore and Atkinson (in Boore–Atkinson NGA ground motion relations for the geometric mean horizontal component of peak and spectral ground motion parameters (trans: Engineering Co, University of California B). Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center 2007). A second output of this paper is a map of the elements at risk (EaR) for the population and buildings of Istanbul, and the introduction of a new approach of net elements at risk (NEaR).     

Focal mechanism of Badr earthquake, Saudia Arabia of August 27, 2009

Focal mechanism solution of the 27th August 2009 earthquake (mb?=?4.0) that occurred in the Badr area, northwest of Saudi Arabia, approximately 50?km from the Red Sea has been determined from the P-wave first motion polarities. Results show normal faulting mechanism with a negligible component of strike-slip motion with NE T-axis direction. This type of mechanism is common with other earthquakes of the northwestern Saudi Arabia and is considered to present the tectonic movement of the region. The dominantly extensional tectonic regime in this province demonstrates the influence of NE extension in the Red Sea. The strikes of the solution are consistent with those of the main faults near the epicenter. Hypocentral location of this earthquake was carried out using the data from the King Abdulaziz City of Science and Technology Seismic Network, Saudi Arabia, and the Egyptian National Seismological Network, Egypt. The horizontal and vertical confidence estimates are 0.5?km for both. The local magnitude, M _L, following the Richter??s original definition was also derived from ten digital three-component broadband seismograms. The average local magnitude determined in this study is 3.8?±?0.17. The estimated seismic moment of this event is $ {3}.{\hbox{7e}} + {14}\,{\hbox{Nm}}\left( {{M_{\rm{W}}} = {3}.{66}\pm 0.0{7}} \right) $ .     

Local seismic hazard assessment in areas of weak to moderate seismicity—case study from Eastern Germany

Generally the seismic hazard of an area of interest is considered independent of time. However, its seismic risk or vulnerability, respectively, increases with the population and developing state of economy of the area. Therefore, many areas of moderate seismic hazard gain increasing importance with respect to seismic hazard and risk analysis. However, these areas mostly have a weak earthquake database, i.e., they are characterised by relative low seismicity and uncertain information concerning historical earthquakes. In a case study for Eastern Thuringia (Germany), acting as example for similar places in the world, seismic hazard is estimated using the probabilistic approach. Because of the lack of earthquakes occurring in the recent past, mainly historical earthquakes have to be used. But for these the actual earthquake sources or active faults, needed for the analysis, are imprecisely known. Therefore, the earthquake locations are represented by areal sources, a common practice. The definition of these sources is performed carefully, because their geometrical shape and size (apart from the earthquake occurrence model) influence the results significantly. Using analysis tools such as density maps of earthquake epicentres, seismic strain and energy release support this. Oversizing of areal sources leads to underestimation of seismic hazard and should therefore be avoided. Large location errors of historical earthquakes on the other hand are represented by several alternative areal sources with final superimposition of the different results. In a very similar way information known from macroseismic observations interpreted as source rather than as site effects are taken into account in order to achieve a seismic hazard assessment as realistic as possible. In very local cases the meaning of source effects exceeds those of site effects very likely. The influence of attenuation parameter variations on the result of estimated local seismic hazard is relatively low. Generally, the results obtained by the seismic hazard assessment coincide well with macroseismic observations from the thoroughly investigated largest earthquake in the region.     

Spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjacent regions: Implication for future seismic hazard

The study deals spatial mapping of earthquake hazard parameters like annual and 100-years mode along with their 90% probability of not being exceeded (NBE) in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya and adjoining regions. For this purpose, we applied a straightforward and most robust method known as Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). A homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue during the period 1900–2010 with magnitude M_W ⩾ 4.0 is utilized to estimate these earthquake hazard parameters. An equal grid point mesh, of 1° longitude X 1° latitude, is chosen to produce detailed earthquake hazard maps. This performance allows analysis of the localized seismicity parameters and representation of their regional variations as contour maps. The estimated result of annual mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the values of M_W 6.0 in the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan and northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings in the examined region. The 100-years mode with 90% probability of NBE is expected to exceed the value of M_W 8.0 in the Hindukush–Pamir Himalaya with Caucasus mountain belt, the Sulaiman–Kirthar ranges of Pakistan, northwestern part of the Nepal and surroundings, the Kangra–Himanchal Pradesh and Kashmir of India. The estimated high values of earthquake hazard parameters are mostly correlated with the main tectonic regimes of the examined region. The spatial variations of earthquake hazard parameters reveal that the examined region exhibits more complexity and has high crustal heterogeneity. The spatial maps provide a brief atlas of the earthquake hazard in the region.     

Integration of GIS,AHP and TOPSIS for earthquake hazard analysis

Worldwide, earthquakes and related disasters have persistently had severe negative impacts on human livelihoods and have caused widespread socioeconomic and environmental damage. The severity of these disasters has prompted recognition of the need for comprehensive and effective disaster and emergency management (DEM) efforts, which are required to plan, respond to and develop risk mitigation strategies. In this regard, recently developed methods, known as multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), have been widely used in DEM domains by emergency managers to greatly improve the quality of the decision-making process, making it more participatory, explicit, rational and efficient. In this study, MCDA techniques of the Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), integrated with GIS, were used to produce earthquake hazard and risk maps for earthquake disaster monitoring and analysis for a case study region of Küçükçekmece in Istanbul, Turkey. The five main criteria that have the strongest influence on the impact of earthquakes on the study region were determined: topography, distance to epicentre, soil classification, liquefaction and fault/focal mechanism. AHP was used to determine the weights of these parameters, which were also used as input into the TOPSIS method and GIS (ESRI ArcGIS) for simulating these outputs to produce earthquake hazard maps. The resulting earthquake hazard maps created by both the AHP and TOPSIS models were compared, showing high correlation and compatibility. To estimate the elements at risk, population and building data were used with the AHP and TOPSIS hazard maps for potential loss assessment; thus, we demonstrated the potential of integrating GIS with AHP and TOPSIS in generating hazard maps for effective earthquake disaster and risk management.     

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert, having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion. Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern AI techniques are currently available. In this study, several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity (Vs30), clay content, soil water content, soil bulk density, soil thickness, soil pH, distance from river, slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index (LPI). By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) technique, peak ground acceleration (PGA) was derived for 50 yrs period (500 and 2500 yrs return period) in Australia. Firstly, liquefaction hazard index (LHI) (effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas) was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2% and 10% exceedance probability of earthquake hazard. Secondly, ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2% and 10% exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps. Thirdly, deep neural networks (DNNs) were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94% and 93%, respectively. As per the results, very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria. This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques. This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of M_w 6 using the source model characterization. The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future. The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data, knowledge on topology, parameters, and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions. The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas. This research aims to support stakeholders’ on decision making for infrastructure investment, emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.     

Assessment of pollution sources in the southeastern of the Riyadh and its impact on the population/Saudi Arabia

The rapid growth of Riyadh—capital of Saudi Arabia—is pushing the area to more pollution and incentive for reorganization. The aim of this research is to assess air pollutants in southeast of Riyadh and detect opinion of the population about their environment. The assessment was done by analyzing 405 questionnaires, evaluating thermal band of Landsat 8, and spatial analyzing of particular matter and chemicals in 19 air samples by geostatistical tool in the ArcMap. Most of the inhabitants stated that they are suffering from bad odor, sewage leakage, and dust mainly from a cement factory. The thermal band of Landsat clarified the location of the pollution sources mainly the 1st industrial city, Yammama Cement Factory, and power plant in Farouq area. The ordinary kriging maps showed that the highest concentration of PM₁₀ (>403 μg/m³) lied to the northern and western side of the study area and caused a health issue to most inhabitants.     

Natural and human-induced sinkhole hazards in Saudi Arabia: distribution,investigation, causes and impacts

Approximately 60 % of the 2,150,000 km² area of Saudi Arabia is underlain by soluble sediments (carbonate and evaporite rock formations, salt diapirs, sabkha deposits). Despite its hyper-arid climate, a wide variety of recent sinkholes have been reported in numerous areas, involving significant property losses. Human activities, most notably groundwater extraction, have induced unstable conditions on pre-existing cavities. This work provides an overview of the sinkhole hazard in Saudi Arabia, a scarcely explored topic. It identifies the main karst formations and the distribution of the most problematic sinkhole areas, illustrated through several case studies covering the wide spectrum of subsidence mechanisms. Some of the main investigation methods are presented through selected examples, including remote sensing, trenching and geophysics. Based on the available data, the main causal factors are identified and further actions that should be undertaken to better assess and manage the risk are discussed.     

Public perception of the risk of disasters in a developing economy: the case of Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia has in recent years experienced frequent disasters, including flooding, epidemics, and dust storms, while many parts of the country are subject to regular earthquake and volcanic activity. The paper examines public perception of the risk of disasters in this interesting socio-cultural and regional environment not already covered by existing literature. A wide national survey conducted between March and May 2012 resulted in 1,164 responses across the 13 regions of Saudi Arabia. The study showed that the majority of the participants have faith that God is in control of the world and that disasters may be a punishment from him. However, this does not hinder their desire to be prepared to cope with disasters. It also highlighted that direct experience with such disasters does not directly influence perception. The research findings lead to the emergence of a number of recommendations regarding raising awareness of hazards and the risk of disasters, including education, training, encouraging voluntary work, and improving public access to vital information resources. A requirement for research into resilience also emerges, to prepare communities to cope with disasters; this is the focus of the authors’ future research.     

First evidence for episodic flooding events in the arid interior of central Saudi Arabia over the last 60 ka

Although evidence for Quaternary environmental changes in the Arabian Peninsula is now growing, research has mostly been conducted in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and in the Sultanate of Oman. There have been virtually no recent studies in Saudi Arabia, especially in the central region such as around Al‐Quwaiayh. In this area there are a series of outwash plains developed along the eastern edge of the Arabian Shield that formed in the late Quaternary. Four sedimentary sections, which are representative of the deposits that have accumulated, have been studied and five luminescence ages obtained. These are the first luminescence ages acquired from Quaternary sediments in central Saudi Arabia. The preserved fluvial deposits in the study area have formed during humid events at ca. 54 ka, ca. 39 ka and ca. 0.8 ka. In more recent times aeolian sands have been encroaching on to the distal parts of the outwash plains. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

The frequency–magnitude distributions of earthquakes are used in this study to estimate the earthquake hazard parameters for individual earthquake source zones within the Mainland Southeast Asia. For this purpose, 13 earthquake source zones are newly defined based on the most recent geological, tectonic, and seismicity data. A homogeneous and complete seismicity database covering the period from 1964 to 2010 is prepared for this region and then used for the estimation of the constants, a and b, of the frequency–magnitude distributions. These constants are then applied to evaluate the most probable largest magnitude, the mean return period, and the probability of earthquake of different magnitudes in different time spans. The results clearly show that zones A, B, and E have the high probability for the earthquake occurrence comparing with the other seismic zones. All seismic source zones have 100 % probability that the earthquake with magnitude ≤6.0 generates in the next 25 years. For the Sagaing Fault Zone (zones C), the next Mw 7.2–7.5 earthquake may generate in this zone within the next two decades and should be aware of the prospective Mw 8.0 earthquake. Meanwhile, in Sumatra-Andaman Interplate (zone A), an earthquake with a magnitude of Mw 9.0 can possibly occur in every 50 years. Since an earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 was recorded in this region in 2004, there is a possibility of another Mw 9.0 earthquake within the next 50 years.     

Dam break analysis and flood disaster simulation in arid urban environment: the Um Al-Khair dam case study,Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

Natural Hazards - This study used a simulation methodology for dam break analysis and flood simulation in an urbanized arid region, namely Um Al-Khair dam in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The analysis was...