A city and national metric measuring isolation from the global market for food security assessment

The World Bank has invested in infrastructure in developing countries for decades. This investment aims to reduce the isolation of markets, reducing both seasonality and variability in food availability and food prices. Here we combine city market price data, global distance to port, and country infrastructure data to create a new Isolation Index for countries and cities around the world. Our index quantifies the isolation of a city from the global market. We demonstrate that an index built at the country level can be applied at a sub-national level to quantify city isolation. In doing so, we offer policy makers with an alternative metric to assess food insecurity. We compare our isolation index with other indices and economic data found in the literature. We show that our Index measures economic isolation regardless of economic stability using correlation and analysis.     

多维邻近性、贸易壁垒与中国—世界市场的产业联系动态演化

随着中国经济步入新常态,中国嵌入世界生产网络的既有模式遭遇内部红利消失与外部贸易摩擦的双重困境,探讨中国同世界其他国家/地区间的产业联系特征及其动态演化机制,对寻找中国产业对外联系的破局方向至关重要。基于1995—2014年世界投入产出表数据库,从国家尺度刻画世界产业相互依赖网络,并着重关注中国在这一格局中的角色与地位演变。研究发现：① 1995—2014年中国从世界生产联系网络的边缘国家演变成为沟通东亚、东南亚地区与其他新兴市场的桥梁,并从美欧主干联系的“局外人”升级成为链接欧美产业网络的重要枢纽。而2015—2019年中国对外产业联系拓展逐渐进入曲折发展的瓶颈期。② 从供给角度看,中国基础资源行业和制造业正不断嵌入世界生产网络的供给侧。相比之下,中国大部分服务业对世界产业网络的供给能力低于世界平均水平。③ 从需求看,中国作为“世界工厂”与基础设施建设大国,在制造业与基建方面具有世界性的影响力,然而中国的交通、物流、金融等生产型服务业的国际影响力在2005年后逐步下降。④ 中国产业获取本地附加值总体持续增长,但附加值捕获的效率较低。在此基础上,本文探讨了多维邻近性、贸易保护对中国—世界产业联系的作用,发现：中国对外产业联系的演化受地理、认知、社会与制度4个维度的邻近性影响并形成路径依赖。其中地理与认知邻近性的影响最为广泛,而社会与制度邻近性仅对产业联系形式更加复杂的中间生产联系与发展较为成熟的最终需求联系有促进作用,技术贸易壁垒与反倾销调查会削弱中国对外产业联系;卫生安全检疫措施对最终市场需求联系有显著削弱作用,而对中间产品生产联系的作用并不显著。综上所述,生产型服务业与总体附加值获取效率是中国对外产业联系拓展的潜力方向,而内销—出口平衡与多元化的产业发展策略是中国对外产业联系拓展的合理举措。     

Global Dimensions of U.S. Legal Services

The internationalization of the world's producer services has included the steady expansion of legal services across national borders. This article opens with an examination of the supply and demand factors that have driven this process, including the strategies and problems faced by law firms that operate internationally. It then offers an empirical examination of the distribution of overseas legal services offices of the 700 largest U.S. law firms, including their foreign markets and headquarters cities.     

Metallic Mineral Resources in the Twenty-First Century. I. Historical Extraction Trends and Expected Demand

Industrial, technological, and economic developments depend on the availability of metallic raw materials. As a greater fraction of the Earth’s population has become part of developed economies and as developed societies have become more affluent, the demand on metallic mineral resources has increased. Yet metallic minerals are non-renewable natural resources, the supply of which, even if unknown and potentially large, is finite. An analysis of historical extraction trends for eighteen metals, going back to the year 1900, demonstrates that demand of metallic raw materials has increased as a result of both increase in world population and increase in per-capita consumption. These eighteen metals can be arranged into four distinct groups, for each of which it is possible to identify a consistent pattern of per-capita demand as a function of time. These patterns can, in turn, be explained in terms of the industrial and technological applications, and in some cases conventional uses as well, of the metals in each group. Under the assumption that these patterns will continue into the future, and that world population will grow by no more than about 50% by the year 2100, one can estimate the amount of metallic raw materials that will be required to sustain the world’s economy throughout the twenty-first century. From the present until the year 2100, the world can be expected to require about one order of magnitude more metal than the total amount of metal that fueled technological and economic growth between the age of steam and the present day. For most of the metals considered here, this corresponds to 5–10 times the amount of metal contained in proven ore reserves. The two chief driving factors of this expected demand are growth in per-capita consumption and present-day absolute population numbers. World population is already so large that additional population growth makes only a small contribution to the expected future demand of metallic raw materials. It is not known whether or not the amount of metal required to sustain the world’s economy throughout this century exists in exploitable mineral resources. In the accompanying paper, I show that it is nevertheless possible to make statistical inferences about the size distribution of the mineral deposits that will need to be discovered and developed in order to satisfy the expected demand. Those results neither prove nor disprove that the needed resources exist but can be used to improve our understanding of the challenges facing future supply of metallic raw materials.     

全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析

以斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)建立的粮食需求和供应模型为基础,同时采用Ds和Shaw建立的全球变化各因子对粮食需求和供给影响的模型对其变量进行修正,结合唐国平、李秀彬的结果,模拟计算了全球变化条件下,我国未来粮食需求量和产量。在分析中发现:受全球变化的影响,在保持人民消费水平持续增长的条件下我国未来粮食生产有可能不能满足需求增长的要求,存在7～8%的粮食缺口。但是,由于全球变化的各个因素都存在很大的不确定性,而且技术进步对增加粮食产量有很大促进作用。计算结果揭示,只要采取正确的措施来尽量减少全球变化带来的不利影响,危机是可以避免的     

Australian Climate,Energy and Water Policies: conflicts and synergies

Responding to the threat of climate change, conserving freshwater ecosystems and securing adequate energy and water supplies are among the greatest challenges facing modern societies. Yet recognition of the interdependencies between climate, energy and water policy—with resulting synergies and trade-offs—remains limited, leaving societies and governments alike vulnerable to the dangers of conflicted or unintended policy outcomes from sectoral decisions. In this paper, we analyse current Australian climate, energy and water policies to identify the risks of perverse outcomes between the three policy sectors. In doing so we categorise the conflicts and synergies between particular energy generation, carbon sequestration and water supply policies to improve understandings of the challenges facing decision makers in Australia and internationally. Four types of interventions are identified that would enable integration and optimisation of policies, namely: better cross-sectoral knowledge to inform decisions; the identification of technologies with co-benefits; markets with broader cross-sectoral participation (including linking water and carbon markets); and better-integrated governance institutions.     

中美应对经济危机的宏观经济政策比较

以美国的大型金融机构纷纷陷入重大危机为标志,美国次贷危机演变成全球金融危机,应对危机所带来的经济萧条,中美两国政府展开了救市计划。比较中美两国的经济政策,中国将救市的希望放在了生产商,企图通过投资的增加来带动经济的增长。而美国政府更倾向于通过挽救金融体系,救助金融机构以刺激消费,来促进经济增长。形成这种差别的原因在于经济结构、金融环境、利率风险程度的不同,经济增长的动力不同以及中美贸易关系的影响。     

Growing Apples and the 'Growing Pains' of Restructuring for New Zealand's Pipfruit Industry

Numerous urgent issues face New Zealand's pipfruit industry at the close of the decade. Oversupplied and competitive global markets, shifting policy environments, and industry ‘clawback’ place increasing pressures on pipfruit's single desk marketing system. This paper identifies the importance of interregional production dynamics and some policy challenges surrounding discourses of globalisation, sustainability and restructuring.     

Long-term implications of new U.S. gas estimates

The US Geological Survey’s 1995 estimates of domestic undiscovered plus undeveloped natural gas nearly tripled quantities estimated in its 1989 Assessment. Much of the increase came from selected unconventional resources assessed using the paradigm of continuous-type accumulations. These include such seemingly unrelated “unconventional” gas occurrences as “tight gas,” coalbed gas, gas in shales, and deep basin-center gas. Though only a small fraction of the assessed 352 trillion cubic feet is now economic, the quantity is nevertheless significant. Moreover, the lowest cost resources are close to major gas markets where competing conventional gas is modest. With continued technological improvements these resources can contribute significantly to future U.S. gas supply, even without subsidies     

Academic publishing as 'creative' industry, and recent discourses of 'creative economies': some critical reflections

This paper continues recent discussions on the (geo)politics of the production of academic knowledges, in relation to the recent rise of narratives of 'the creative economy'. Creativity and the 'creative industries' are increasingly common components of urban economic development discourse, especially following the release of a set of key books – most notably Charles Landry's The Creative City (2000), and Richard Florida's The Rise of the Creative Class (2002) – that have become popular among economic development planners and cultural policy makers. This paper focuses on the traffic of these books, and their authors, beyond the Anglo-American core. It also briefly discusses policy discourses interpreted from these texts. It is principally, though, a critique of the ways in which academic knowledges circulate, stemming from theorization of academics as creative producers, and of knowledge production as part of the creative economy. The article seeks to critique the means by which particular northern economic knowledges become normative, framed as universal and 'global', and are distributed and absorbed via intellectual 'scenes' and an academic 'celebrity' circuit.     

Getting Globalized: Urban Policy and Industrial Displacement in Williamsburg,Brooklyn

We hypothesize that as the "global city" label becomes ever more central to a city's identity, local urban government policy increasingly supports those economic sectors that city leaders see as being congruent with the global and increasingly undermines sectors that serve primarily local markets. Through an in-depth study of small-scale manufacturers in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, in New York City, we examine the extent to which and the ways in which local policy undermines otherwise healthy locally oriented businesses. We find that the City's assumption that urban manufacturing is a dying breed becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, largely via the City's own treatment of its manufacturing businesses. Through a lack of enforcement of zoning codes, zoning variances and rezoning initiatives, and more quotidian policies of harassment over noise and other quality of life complaints, the City is making it more difficult to do business for small-scale manufacturers. These policies then create a conventional wisdom that sees the City as a difficult place to start and grow a business.     

哈大高铁对东北城市旅游供需市场的空间效应研究——基于景点可达性的分析

本文基于GIS技术,以景点可达性为切入点,从市场供需的视角,依据市场供需的影响因素将潜力模型进行分解,得到旅游市场的供给和需求潜力模型。研究发现：①哈大高铁使东北各地到区域内各旅游景点平均时间压缩2.5 h左右,填补了东北一日游市场区的空白,拓展了两日游市场区的范围,形成以高铁为轴,以中心城市为核心,以一日游、两日游及七日游为主要形式,向高铁两侧和中心城市周边依次扩散的圈层+轴带状区域旅游空间形态。②东北城市旅游供需潜力变化均呈现随到高铁距离增加而衰减的现象,促使供需市场向高铁沿线集聚,带动了高铁旅游经济带的形成,并导致东北旅游空间集散特征更加明显。③高铁对短期游(一日游、两日游)供需市场的带动明显好于七日游市场。④基于旅游可达性,以城市为基本单元,根据核心—边缘理论,结合旅游供需潜力发展状况,将东北城市旅游市场区划分为核心区、外围区、过渡区、边缘区4类。本文认为,应以高铁等快速交通方式和旅游枢纽城市为依托,进一步完善旅游景点的交通网络,促进区域旅游供需空间网络的优化与对接。     

Policy Performance and Brownfield Redevelopment in Milwaukee,Wisconsin*

The redevelopment of brownfield sites has become a central focus of government efforts aimed at developing and revitalizing urban areas in the U.S. This article examines brownfield redevelopment efforts in Milwaukee County, Wisconsin, which gained momentum in the mid‐1990s, in order to determine how Milwaukee is performing in terms of redevelopment activities, what the effects of government support of such activities have been, and how performance outcomes are currently being measured. Through an examination of government data and interviews with key stakeholders, the Milwaukee case reveals that redevelopment is indeed progressing well as government becomes more effective at tackling the barriers to private‐sector redevelopment. However, progress in redeveloping brownfields is still being measured primarily in terms of economic development outcomes rather than in terms of the broader social, economic, and environmental objectives that both policy makers and private‐sector stakeholders associate with such redevelopment.     

美国对伊朗石油禁运与全球能源安全

2018年6月美国针对伊朗启动了史上最严厉的石油禁运政策,要求所有国家于11月停止从伊朗进口石油,否则相关国家和企业都将面临美国的经济制裁,并无意给予任何国家豁免权。当前,中国、日本、韩国、印度和欧盟等世界重要的石油进口国已经做出回应,除中国明确拒绝美国的单边制裁继续保持与伊朗的石油贸易外,其他主要石油进口国都大量削减从伊朗的石油进口。沙特阿拉伯等石油生产国也承诺通过石油增产来维护全球能源市场的稳定,以支持美国对伊朗的制裁。在经济全球化的大趋势下,美国对伊朗的石油禁运,势必引发全球能源市场的动荡,改变全球石油政治格局以及相关利益方的石油权益。这些方面会涉及到全球油价的波动、不同国家的石油安全与应对政策、世界能源贸易稳定与地缘政治格局的变动等。长期关注能源地缘政治的专家学者围绕美国对伊朗的石油禁运可能产生的影响发表观点,专家们认为美国此举是战略两难的困境,短期内对将会引起世界石油短缺及油价波动,甚至可能导致OPEC减产协议崩溃,改变世界主要进口国的进口规模以及来源结构,但对世界石油市场的长期影响有限。伊朗将寻求打折出售原油、替代港口出口以及多元化出口3条生存路径,目前最大的隐患是伊朗或将封锁霍尔木兹海峡,但是此举目前可能性不大。伊朗石油禁运具有长期性和复杂性,对中国既是机遇也是挑战,中国在“一带一路”倡议下与伊朗保持正常的石油贸易是双赢的选择,但需要谨慎对待由此引发的能源地缘政治的风险,提升能源安全应对的措施。期待各方观点对伊朗石油禁运引发的能源地缘政治格局以及中国的能源安全的解析,能够为相关政策制定者提供理论借鉴。     

世界能源贸易网络的演化特征与能源竞合关系

详尽地探讨全球能源贸易网络的演化特征及国际贸易的竞合关系,可为中国能源贸易政策的制定提供科学支撑。论文运用复杂网络方法,从整体格局出发研究了世界能源贸易网络的演化特征,并重点从供给与需求两方面分析了贸易集团演化与供需大国的能源竞合关系。研究结果表明：20世纪90年代以来,世界能源贸易关系不断趋于复杂化。近年来,能源贸易主体数量基本保持稳定,当前占世界总数近80%的国家/地区均参与能源贸易;世界能源贸易网络同时具有小世界特性与无标度特性;世界能源的进出口格局已发生重塑,能源的出口重心逐渐由东亚、中东、澳洲和欧洲转向了东欧、中东、北美、澳洲和西非等地区,进口重心由东亚、西欧和澳洲向北美、东亚和西欧转移;世界能源贸易网络存在四大集团,分别是以美国为首的贸易集团、欧洲-俄罗斯等国家贸易集团、东亚-东南亚贸易集团和澳大利亚-印度-非洲贸易集团等。地理距离、制度差异、历史文化及政治关系等是贸易集团演化的重要原因;贸易集团内,核心国家间的贸易依赖存在着非对称性,能源需求国进口来源的多元化现象更为突出,东亚、东南亚市场是供给国共同争夺的对象。     

Context and contingency: the coffee crisis for conventional small-scale coffee farmers in Brazil

Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America and the world's leading producer and exporter of coffee. Smallholders are the predominant producers of Brazilian coffee and have been significantly impacted by post-ISI (import substitution industrialisation) neoliberal reforms that swept the nation's agricultural sector beginning in the 1980s. These reforms stimulated increased coffee production while simultaneously diminishing state interventions, including agricultural subsidies, farmer credits, research and development programmes, extension services, and rural development initiatives. These changes were closely followed by major restructuring of the global coffee market and the elimination of international coffee export quotas. Our research joins a growing body of recent literature exploring how changes related to market liberalisation and globalisation affect localities and regions where producers supply coffee for conventional markets. Through a case study, we describe the impacts of neoliberal globalisation on the lives, livelihoods, and environment of small-scale coffee producers in Minas Gerais, Brazil. We explore how neoliberal reform, reflected in the specific historical, geographical, and environmental context of Brazilian coffee production, has resulted in the increased marginalisation of small-scale farmers, the degradation of soils, and overall rural decline.     

Planning Melbourne's water supply system

The Australian water industry has now entered what has been called a ‘mature’ phase of its evolution. This is characterised by a greater emphasis on water conservation, recycling, realistic pricing and demand management, rather than on the construction of large‐scale, capital‐intensive, supply projects, as in the past. A review is presented of some recent Australian and overseas writings on this changed policy direction and specific attention is paid to the way in which the Melbourne and Metropolitan Board of Works has, in recent years, responded to the uncertain economic and political environment of the 1980s. The concepts of ‘linear’ and ‘circular’ water systems are introduced and it is argued that the planning trend towards the latter is inevitable.     

中国能源保障基本形势分析

国家能源保障目标由两部分组成： 第一,能源供应的稳定性,指满足国家人口发展正常需 求的能源供应保障的稳定程度;第二,能源使用的安全性,指能源消费及使用不应对人类自身的 生存与发展环境构成任何威胁。本文从影响能源保障的能源资源基础、生产与消费、运输、生产与 消费对环境影响等方面分析了中国能源保障的基本形势, 总体来说中国目前能源保障重点集中 在能源供应保障层面上, 立足于自身的资源基础及生产与消费空间高度分离的特点建立起了庞 大的能源保障体系, 对能源使用安全尽管已经引起了高度的重视, 但是由于现实经济的压力和认 识上的不足实质性的措施还很少。未来我国应该立足能源保障基本形势, 从供应稳定性和使用安 全性出发构筑稳定、经济、清洁、安全的能源保障体系。     

中国城市网络团购市场供需协调性评价——基于30个省会城市的实证分析

以30个省会城市为研究对象,从宏观尺度揭示中国城市的网络团购市场供给规模与需求潜力的协调性特征。结果表明:团购市场供给规模较大的城市主要集中在中国东部和西部地区;东部地区城市的供给规模和需求潜力的协调发展程度整体较好,供需失调现象明显的城市主要集中在西北地区;团购市场供给规模及其与需求潜力的协调性均遵循以经济发展水平为标尺的等级式扩张路径。餐饮、娱乐和旅游酒店3类团购市场供给规模相对需求潜力表现出了较明显的过剩现象。城市经济发展水平是团购市场供需协调发展的根本动力,团购市场供给规模和需求潜力水平是团购市场协调发展的直接动力。     

矿产资源市场与贸易的变化格局及对中国经济的影响(英文)

自20世纪70年代初期和80年代末期以来,国际矿产品市场经历了总体衰退阶段。与此相反,由于世界经济快速增长,特别是90年代初的中国和21世纪初的印度快速发展,导致世界矿产市场和贸易中对矿产资源的需求大幅上升。过去几十年来,矿产资源的生产、消费和贸易对中国的经济增长与发展起了重要的作用。本文主要对国际矿产品市场和贸易模式的变化特征进行了综合评价,力图筛选出影响中国矿产资源供需的主要因素,并实证分析中国矿产资源贸易及其发展前景的基本特征。作者认为,中国矿产资源的巨大潜力能否成为国际矿产资源贸易的主要驱动力并因此带动中国未来经济增长,依然值得继续观察。无能如何,中国正积极影响着全球矿产资源市场和贸易,这一点是肯定的。