Late Pleistocene and Holocene paleoseismology of an intraplate seismic zone in a large alluvial valley, the New Madrid seismic zone, Central USA

The New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) is an intraplate right-lateral strike-slip and thrust fault system contained mostly within the Mississippi Alluvial Valley. The most recent earthquake sequence in the zone occurred in 1811–1812 and had estimated moment magnitudes of 7–8 (e.g., [Johnston, A.C., 1996. Seismic moment assessment of stable continental earthquakes, Part 3: 1811–1812 New Madrid, 1886 Charleston, and 1755 Lisbon. Geophysical Journal International 126, 314–344; Johnston, A.C., Schweig III, E.S, 1996. The enigma of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811–1812. Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences 24, 339–384; Hough, S.E., Armbruster, J.G., Seeber, L., Hough, J.F., 2000. On the modified Mercalli intensities and magnitudes of the New Madrid earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 105 (B10), 23,839–23,864; Tuttle, M.P., 2001. The use of liquefaction features in paleoseismology: Lessons learned in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Journal of Seismology 5, 361–380]). Four earlier prehistoric earthquakes or earthquake sequences have been dated A.D. 1450 ± 150, 900 ± 100, 300 ± 200, and 2350 B.C. ± 200 years using paleoliquefaction features, particularly those associated with native American artifacts, and in some cases surface deformation ([Craven, J. A. 1995. Paleoseismology study in the New Madrid seismic zone using geological and archeological features to constrain ages of liquefaction deposits. M.S thesis, University of Memphis, Memphis, TN, U.S.A.; Tuttle, M.P., Lafferty III, R.H., Guccione, M.J., Schweig III, E.S., Lopinot, N., Cande, R., Dyer-Williams, K., Haynes, M., 1996. Use of archaeology to date liquefaction features and seismic events in the New Madrid seismic zone, central United States. Geoarchaeology 11, 451–480; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43(2002), 313–349; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig, E.S., Sims, J.D., Lafferty, R.H., Wolf, L.W., Haynes, M.L., 2002. The earthquake potential of the New Madrid seismic zone, Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, v 92, n. 6, p. 2080–2089; Tuttle, M.P., Schweig III, E.S., Campbell, J., Thomas, P.M., Sims, J.D., Lafferty III, R.H., 2005. Evidence for New Madrid earthquakes in A.D. 300 and 2350 B.C. Seismological Research Letters 76, 489–501]). The two most recent prehistoric and the 2350 B.C. events were probably also earthquake sequences with approximately the same magnitude as the historic sequence.Surface deformation (faulting and folding) in an alluvial setting provides many examples of stream response to gradient changes that can also be used to date past earthquake events. Stream responses include changes in channel morphology, deviations in the channel path from the regional gradient, changes in the direction of flow, anomalous longitudinal profiles, and aggradation or incision of the channel ([Merritts, D., Hesterberg, T, 1994. Stream networks and long-term surface uplift in the New Madrid seismic zone. Science 265, 1081–1084.; Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). Uplift or depression of the floodplain affects the frequency of flooding and thus the thickness and style of vertical accretion or drowning of a meander scar to form a lake. Vegetation may experience trauma, mortality, and in some cases growth enhancement due to ground failure during the earthquake and hydrologic changes after the earthquake ([VanArdale, R.B., Stahle, D.W., Cleaveland, M.K., Guccione, M.J., 1998. Earthquake signals in tree-ring data from the New Madrid seismic zone and implications for paleoseismicity. Geology 26, 515–518]). Identification and dating these physical and biologic responses allows source areas to be identified and seismic events to be dated.Seven fault segments are recognized by microseismicity and geomorphology. Surface faulting has been recognized at three of these segments, Reelfoot fault, New Madrid North fault, and Bootheel fault. The Reelfoot fault is a compressive stepover along the strike-slip fault and has up to 11 m of surface relief ([Carlson, S.D., 2000. Formation and geomorphic history of Reelfoot Lake: insight into the New Madrid seismic zone. M.S. Thesis, University of Arkansas, Fayetteville, Arkansas, U.S.A]) deforming abandoned and active Mississippi River channels ([Guccione, M.J., Mueller, K., Champion, J., Shepherd, S., Odhiambo, B., 2002b. Stream response to repeated co-seismic folding, Tiptonville dome, western Tennessee. Geomorphology 43 (2002), 313–349]). The New Madrid North fault apparently has only strike-slip motion and is recognized by modern microseismicity, geomorphic anomalies, and sand cataclasis ([Baldwin, J.N., Barron A.D., Kelson, K.I., Harris, J.B., Cashman, S., 2002. Preliminary paleoseismic and geophysical investigation of the North Farrenburg lineament: primary tectonic deformation associated with the New Madrid North Fault?. Seismological Research Letters 73, 393–413]). The Bootheel fault, which is not identified by the modern microseismicity, is associated with extensive liquefaction and offset channels ([Guccione, M.J., Marple, R., Autin, W.J., 2005, Evidence for Holocene displacements on the Bootheel fault (lineament) in southeastern Missouri: Seismotectonic implications for the New Madrid region. Geological Society of America Bulletin 117, 319–333]). The fault has dominantly strike-slip motion but also has a vertical component of slip. Other recognized surface deformation includes relatively low-relief folding at Big Lake/Manila high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArdale, R.B., Hehr, L.H., 2000. Origin and age of the Manila high and associated Big Lake “Sunklands”, New Madrid seismic zone, northeastern Arkansas. Geological Society of America Bulletin 112, 579–590]) and Lake St. Francis/Marked Tree high ([Guccione, M.J., VanArsdale, R.B., 1995. Origin and age of the St. Francis Sunklands using drainage patterns and sedimentology. Final report submitted to the U. S. Geological Survey, Award Number 1434-93-G-2354, Washington D.C.]), both along the subsurface Blytheville arch. Deformation at each of the fault segments does not occur during each earthquake event, indicating that earthquake sources have varied throughout the Holocene.     

Reply to comments by R. Von Herzen, E.E. Davis, A.T. Fisher, C.A. Stein and H.N. Pollack on “Earth's heat flux revised and linked to chemistry”

The lengthy comment by Von Herzen et al. does not address the most important conclusions of the paper by Hofmeister and Criss [Hofmeister, A.M., Criss, R.E., 2005, Earth's heat flux revisited and linked to chemistry. Tectonophys. 395, 159–177.]. These are 1) that actual measurements better describe the Earth than do simplistic models with demonstrably unrealistic boundary conditions that diverge markedly from the data; and 2) that the models are unconstrained, resulting in a series of papers proposing values for the global flux that have become increasingly disparate from the growing data base over time (Fig. 3 in our paper). We disagree strongly with penultimate concluding statement of Von Herzen et al., “that it is preferable to base surface heat flow analysis not only on the extensive measurements but also on well understood processes that are known to bias the values and statistics of the measurements,” as our Fig. 3 demonstrates that no consistent magnitude has been assigned to the alleged advective flux, so that neither the processes nor the correction are “well understood”. We do not deny the existence of submarine hydrothermal systems, but we disagree strongly with the scales over which they are alleged to operate, and with the large Rayleigh and Nusselt numbers Von Herzen et al. assign to them.     

Seismic structure and origin of active intraplate volcanoes in Northeast Asia

Three-dimensional P-wave velocity structure beneath the Changbai and other intraplate volcanic areas in Northeast Asia is determined by inverting 1378 high-quality P-wave arrival times from 186 teleseismic events recorded by 61 broadband seismic stations. Low-velocity (low-V) anomalies are revealed beneath the Changbai, Longgan, Xianjindao volcanoes. High-velocity (high-V) anomalies are found in the mantle transition zone, where deep-focus earthquakes under Hunchun occur at depths of 500–600 km. The high-V anomaly reflects the deep subduction of the Pacific slab under NE Asia which may have contributed to the formation of the Changbai, Longgang, Xianjindao and Jingpohu intraplate volcanoes. A low-V anomaly is also revealed in the mantle transition zone, which may have a close relationship with the occurrence of deep earthquakes under the Hunchun area. Our results support the Big Mantle Wedge (BMW) model by Zhao et al. [Zhao, D., Lei, J., Tang, Y., 2004. Origin of the Changbai volcano in northeast China: evidence from seismic tomography, Chin. Sci. Bull. 49, 1401–1408; Zhao, D., Maruyama, S., Omori, S., 2007. Mantle dynamics of western Pacific and East Asia: insight from seismic tomography and mineral physics. Gondwana Res. 11, 120–131.] who proposed that the intraplate volcanoes in NE Asia are caused by the back-arc magmatism associated with the deep dehydration process of the subducting slab and convective circulation process in the BMW above the stagnant Pacific slab.     

Archaeoseismic record at the ancient Roman City of Baelo Claudia (Cádiz, south Spain)

This study represents the first paleoseismic approach in Spain in which archaeological remains are considered. The ancient Roman city of Baelo Claudia (1st–4th centuries AD), located at the axial zone of the Gibraltar Strait (Cadiz, south Spain), contains abundant disrupted architectural relics and ground collapses (i.e. landsliding, liquefacion) probably related to historic earthquake damage of intensity IX–X MSK. The archaeological stratigraphy of the city evidence two major episodes of abrupt city destruction bracketed in AD 40–60 and AD 350–395 separated by an intervening horizon of demolition for city rebuilding, otherwise characteristic for many earthquake-damaged archaeological sites in the Mediterranean. The second episode led the eventual city abandonment, and it is evidenced by good examples of column collapse, distortion, failure and breakdown of house and city walls, and pavement warping and disruptions documented during different archaeological excavations, which can be catalogued as secondary coseismic effects. Main damaged relicts observable today are the set of pop-up like arrays and warping developed in the ancient Roman pavement. Their analysis indicate an anomalous westwards ground displacement oblique to the main gentle southward slope of the topography, as also evidence failures, collapses and breakdown of walls and columns, suggesting that stress acted in a broad SW–NE/WSW–ENE orientation consistent whit the expectable motion along the largest NE–SW strike-slip faults of the zone, which in turn can be catalogued as seismic sources of moderate events (ca. 5 mb). Major disruptions and city abandonment were hesitantly related to relatively far strong earthquakes occurred during the late 4th century AD in the Mediterranean or western coast of Iberia by Menanteau et al. [Menanteau, L., Vanney, J.R., Zazo, C., 1983. Belo II : Belo et son environment (Detroit de Gibraltar), Etude physique d'un site antique. Pub. Casa de Velazquez, Serie Archeologie 4., Ed. Broccard, París.]. However, this study indicates that the occurrence of close moderate earthquakes jointly with the unstable character of the ground at the zone (site effect) is a more reliable hypothesis to explain the observed deformations.     

Senescence- and death-related alteration of chlorophylls and carotenoids in marine phytoplankton

This report extends previous work ([Louda et al., 1998a] and [Louda et al., 1998b]. Chlorophyll degradation during senescence and death. Organic Geochemistry 29, 1233–1251.) in which we detailed type-I (alteration) and -II (destruction) degradation of chlorophyll with representative fresh water phytoplankton. The present study covers similar experiments with marine phytoplankton, namely, a cyanobacterium (“ANA” Anacystis sp), a coccolithophore (“COC” Coccolithophora sp.), a dinoflagellate (“GYM” Gymnodinium sp.) and two diatoms (“CYC” Cyclotella meneghiniana and “THAL” Thalassiosira sp.). Mg loss (‘pheophytinization') was rapid and continuous in all species under room-oxic conditions and slow or sporadic under anoxic conditions. The proportion of dephytylated pigments (pheophorbides-a, chlorophyllides-a), relative to the phytylated forms (chlorophyll-a, pheophytins-a), increased over the first year under room-oxic conditions and in room-anoxic conditions only in “CYC”. Pheophorbide-a was converted to pyropheophorbide-a within 15 months only in “THAL” and “ANA”, and slightly in “COC”. After 9–15 months of oxic incubation, “COC” was found to contain traces of purpurin-18 phytyl ester. Consideration of carotenoid pigments is also included herein. All fucoxanthin containing species, except “THAL”, exhibited conversion of fucoxanthin to fucoxanthinol in room-oxic conditions. Diadinoxanthin was rapidly de-epoxidized to give diatoxanthin within the first 2–4 weeks. Diatoxanthin then disappeared from all species by 15 months with a concurrent increase in a pigment which we tentatively identify as a cis-zeaxanthin. Incubations of pure cultures are found to be an effective way by which to model the early type-I reactions for both chlorophylls and carotenoids. The influence of oxygen during senescence-death and the onset of early diagenesis is of paramount importance. The absence of oxygen and, by inference, aerobic microbiota, retards the breakdown of these pigments dramatically.     

The “El Pilote” fluorite skarn: A crucial deposit in the understanding and interpretation of the origin and mobilization of F from northern Mexico deposits

Fluorite deposits are widespread in northern Mexico and those deposits have traditionally been categorized as exclusively hydrothermal–magmatic in origin. Recently, two different fluorite-bearing type models have been proposed for the Northern Mexican deposits: (1) MVT-like deposits formed from basinal brines mobilized during the Laramide Orogeny (La Encantada deposit, Gonzalez-Partida et al., [Gonzalez-Partida, E., Carrillo-Chavez, A., Grimmer, J.O.W., Pironon, J., 2002. Petroleum-rich fluid inclusions in fluorite, Purisima mine, Coahuila, Mexico. International Geological Review 44 (8), 751–763.]; Tritlla et al., [Tritlla, J., Gonzalez-Partida, E., Levresse, G., Banks, D., Pironon, J., 2004. Fluorite deposits at Encantada-Buenavista, Mexico: products of Mississippi Valley type processes — a reply. Ore Geology Reviews 25, 329–332.]); and (2) fluorite-bearing skarns in close contact with rhyolite intrusives (Levinson, [Levinson, A.A., 1962. Beryllium–fluorine mineralization at Aguachile Mountain, Coahuila, Mexico. American Mineralogist 47, 67–75.]). The El Pilote fluorite deposit falls into the second category, and is the only known example of a magmatic-related fluorite deposit in the area. The fluorite trace-element patterns from both the El Pilote skarn and La Encantada MVT deposits display comparable and very low relative abundances as well as comparable chondrite-normalized REE patterns; this would suggest that the skarn F-source comes from the remobilization of a MVT fluorite manto.     

A statistical procedure for the analysis of seismotectonically induced hydrochemical signals: A case study from the Eastern Carpathians, Romania

Changes in the stress field of an aquifer system induced by seismotectonic activity may change the mixing ratio of groundwaters with different compositions in a well, leading to hydrochemical signals which in principle could be related to discrete earthquake events. Due to the complexity of the interactions and the multitude of involved factors the identification of such relationships is a difficult task. In this study we present an empiric statistical approach suitable to analyse if there is an interdependency between changes in the chemical composition of monitoring wells and the regional seismotectonic activity of a considered area. To allow a rigorous comparison with hydrochemistry the regional earthquake time series was aggregated into an univariate time series. This was realized by expressing each earthquake in form of a parameter “e”, taking into consideration both energetic (magnitude of a seismic event) and spatial parameters (position of epi/hypocentrum relative to the monitoring site). The earthquake and the hydrochemical time-series were synchronised aggregating the e-parameters into “earthquake activity” functions E, which takes into account the time of sampling relative to the earthquakes which occurred in the considered area. For the definition of the aggregation functions a variety of different “e” parameters were considered. The set of earthquake functions E was grouped by means of factor analysis to select a limited number of significant and representative earthquake functions E to be used further on in the relation analysis with the multivariate hydrochemical data set. From the hydrochemical data a restricted number of hydrochemical factors were extracted. Factor scores allow to represent and analyse the variation of the hydrochemical factors as a function of time. Finally, regression analysis was used to detect those hydrochemical factors which significantly correlate with the aggregated earthquake functions.This methodological approach was tested with a hydrochemical data set collected from a deep well monitored for two years in the seismically active Vrancea region, Romania. Three of the hydrochemical factors were found to correlate significantly with the considered earthquake activities. A screening with different time combinations revealed that correlations are strongest when the cumulative seismicity over several weeks was considered. The case study also showed that the character of the interdependency depends sometimes on the geometrical distribution of the earthquake foci. By using aggregated earthquake information it was possible to detect interrelationships which couldn't have been identified by analysing only relations between single geochemical signals and single earthquake events. Further on, the approach allows to determine the influence of different seismotectonic patterns on the hydrochemical composition of the sampled well. The method is suitable to be used as a decision instrument in assessing if a monitoring site is suitable or not to be included in a monitoring net within a complex earthquake prediction strategy.     

Can electromagnetic disturbances related to the recent great earthquakes be detected by satellite magnetometers?

On December 26, 2004 the world's fourth largest earthquake since 1900 and the largest since the 1964 Prince William Sound, Alaska earthquake, occurred off the west coast of northern Sumatra with a magnitude of 9.3. On March 28, 2005 another event of magnitude 8.7 took place in the same region. The December 26, 2004 earthquake has prompted scientists to investigate possible electromagnetic signatures of this event, using ground magnetic observations. Iyemori et al. [Iyemori, T. et al., 2005. Geomagnetic pulsations caused by the Sumatra earthquake on December 26, 2004. Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L20807, doi:10.1029/2005GL024083.] have suggested that a 3.6 min long geomagnetic pulsation, observed shortly after this event, was generated by the earthquake. They have speculated that a 30 s magnetic pulsation was also caused by the earthquake. Here for the first time, CHAMP satellite magnetic and electron density data are examined to find out if electromagnetic signatures which are possibly related to these recent megathrust earthquakes are observed in satellite magnetic data. We have shown that some specific features are observed after the two earthquakes, with periods of about 16 and 30 s. Our results favor an external source origin for the 30 s pulsation. Moreover, after more than 1 h, CHAMP magnetic data indicate the existence of a feature characterized by the same parameters (duration, amplitude, and frequency content), which could be associated with each earthquake, respectively. Further investigations are required in order to answer the question of whether these signals can be associated with earthquakes and to assign their possible usefulness with respect to earthquake development.     

Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard of dam sites in Jordan

A Probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismic hazard of nineteen embankment dam sites in Jordan. A line source model developed by McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period from 1 A.D. to 1991 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includes all earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes 27.0°–35.5° N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0° E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activities are identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values are higher for dam sites closer to the Dead Sea Fault. This fault is believed to be responsible for most earthquake activities in Jordan and vicinity. The highest PGA value is found to be for Al-Karama dam site.     

Evaluation of Strong Motion Acceleration for Embankment Dam Design Considering Local Seismotectonics

A probabilistic method is used to evaluate the seismichazard of Adassiya dam site on the Yarmouk river in Jordan. A line source model developedby McGuire (1978) is used in this study. An updated earthquake catalogue coveringthe period from 1 A.D. to 1996 A.D. is used for this purpose. This catalogue includesall earthquakes that occurred in Jordan and adjacent areas, more specifically between latitudes27.0°–35.5°N and longitudes 32.0°–39.0°E.Nine distinct seismic sources of potential seismic activitiesare identified. The seismic hazard parameters are determined using the method suggested by Kijko and Sellevoll (1989).The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) is selected as a measure of ground motion severity. Esteva (1974) attenuation relationship is used in evaluating PGA values at each dam site. Analysis is carried out for 50%, 90%, and 95% probability that is not being exceeded in a life time of 50, 100, and 200 years.Results of analysis indicate that PGA values at the dam site are as follows:[] Operating Basis Earthquake (OBE) (50% probabilityof non-exceedance for a design life of 100 years – corresponding to a return period of 145 years) is 133.6 cm/sec².[] An earthquake with 90% probability of non-exceedancefor a design life of 50 years – corresponding to a return period of 475 years is 214.9 cm/sec².[] Maximum Credible Earthquake (MCE) (Return period of900 years) is 283.0 cm/sec².Strong motion acceleration time history of these earthquakes are givenbased on strong motion records of the November 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake.Local site effect analysis for Adassiya Dam site using SHAKE program showed no amplification. Normalized site-specific acceleration response spectra for OBE and MCE design earthquakes is also given.     

Refining the image of the San Andreas Fault near Parkfield, California using a finite difference travel time computation technique

The Parkfield Area Seismic Observatory (PASO) was a dense, telemetered seismic array that operated for nearly 2 years in a 15 km aperture centered on the San Andreas Fault Observatory at Depth (SAFOD) drill site. The main objective of this deployment was to refine the locations of earthquakes that will serve as potential targets for SAFOD drilling and in the process develop a high (for passive seismological techniques) resolution image of the fault zone structure. A challenging aspect of the analysis of this data set was the known existence of large (20–25%) contrasts in seismic wavespeed across the San Andreas Fault. The resultant distortion of raypaths could challenge the applicability of approximate ray tracing techniques. In order to test the sensitivity of our hypocenter locations and tomographic image to the particular ray tracing and inversion technique employed, we compare an initial determination of locations and structure developed using a coarse grid and an approximate ray tracer [Thurber, C., Roecker, S., Roberts, K., Gold, M., Powell, M.L. , and Rittger, K., 2003. Earthquake locations and three-dimensional fault zone structure along the creeping section of the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, CA: Preparing for SAFOD, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30 3, 10.1029/2002GL016004.] with one derived from a relatively fine grid and an application of a finite difference algorithm [Hole, J.A., and Zelt, B.C., 1995. 3-D finite-difference reflection traveltimes, Geophys. J. Int., 121, 2, 427–434.]. In both cases, we inverted arrival-time data from about 686 local earthquakes and 23 shots simultaneously for earthquake locations and three-dimensional Vp and Vp/Vs structure. Included are data from an active source seismic experiment around the SAFOD site as well as from a vertical array of geophones installed in the 2-km-deep SAFOD pilot hole, drilled in summer 2002. Our results show that the main features of the original analysis are robust: hypocenters are located beneath the trace of the fault in the vicinity of the drill site and the positions of major contrasts in wavespeed are largely the same. At the same time, we determine that shear wave speeds in the upper 2 km of the fault zone are significantly lower than previously estimated, and our estimate of the depth of the main part of the seismogenic zone decreases in places by  100 m. Tests using “virtual earthquakes” (borehole receiver gathers of picks for surface shots) indicate that our event locations near the borehole currently are accurate to about a few tens of meters horizontally and vertically.     

Source parameters of intermediate-depth Vrancea (Romania) earthquakes from empirical Green's functions modeling

Several source parameters (source dimensions, slip, particle velocity, static and dynamic stress drop) are determined for the moderate-size October 27th, 2004 (M_W = 5.8), and the large August 30th, 1986 (M_W = 7.1) and March 4th, 1977 (M_W = 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth earthquakes. For this purpose, the empirical Green's functions method of Irikura [e.g. Irikura, K. (1983). Semi-Empirical Estimation of Strong Ground Motions during Large Earthquakes. Bull. Dis. Prev. Res. Inst., Kyoto Univ., 33, Part 2, No. 298, 63–104., Irikura, K. (1986). Prediction of strong acceleration motions using empirical Green's function, in Proceedings of the 7th Japan earthquake engineering symposium, 151–156., Irikura, K. (1999). Techniques for the simulation of strong ground motion and deterministic seismic hazard analysis, in Proceedings of the advanced study course seismotectonic and microzonation techniques in earthquake engineering: integrated training in earthquake risk reduction practices, Kefallinia, 453–554.] is used to generate synthetic time series from recordings of smaller events (with 4 ≤ M_W ≤ 5) in order to estimate several parameters characterizing the so-called strong motion generation area, which is defined as an extended area with homogeneous slip and rise time and, for crustal earthquakes, corresponds to an asperity of about 100 bar stress release [Miyake, H., T. Iwata and K. Irikura (2003). Source characterization for broadband ground-motion simulation: Kinematic heterogeneous source model and strong motion generation area. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am., 93, 2531–2545.] The parameters are obtained by acceleration envelope and displacement waveform inversion for the 2004 and 1986 events and MSK intensity pattern inversion for the 1977 event using a genetic algorithm. The strong motion recordings of the analyzed Vrancea earthquakes as well as the MSK intensity pattern of the 1977 earthquake can be well reproduced using relatively small strong motion generation areas, which corresponds to small asperities with high stress drops (300–1200 bar) and high particle velocities (3–5 m/s). These results imply a very efficient high-frequency radiation, which has to be taken into account for strong ground motion prediction, and indicate that the intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes are inherently different from crustal events.     

Anomalous phenomena preceding earthquakes (one more approach to discussion on SES nature and VAN-prediction reliability)

Seismic electric signals (SES) preceding strong earthquakes (EQ) are reliable recorded and separated by VAN group on special station network in Greece. Traditional commonly accepted idea that original cause of EQ and all its precursors is the stress accumulation in focal zone meets difficulties in explanation of SES features: long distance appearance, selectivity, lack of reversibility, alternation. Recently proposed (Guterman & Khazan, 1994) magmatic mechanism of shallow crustal EQ preparation allows to construct the model for explanation of most enigmatic SES features. Basic model consists of mantle chamber, the central crustal magma chamber and magma channel connecting mantle and crustal chambers. Basic model can be supplemented by set of secondary crustal chambers with their magma channels spreading quasiradially from centre. Data of geology on giant radiating dike swarms confirm plausibility of the model.     

Seismic reversal pattern for the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, MW 7.6 earthquake

We in this study have calculated the standard normal deviate Z-value to investigate the variations in seismicity patterns in the Taiwan region before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake. We have found that the areas with relatively high seismicity in the eastern Taiwan became abnormally quiet before the Chi-Chi earthquake while the area in the central Taiwan with relatively low seismicity showed unusually active. Such a spatially changing pattern in seismicity strikingly demonstrates the phenomenon of “seismic reversal,” and we here thus present a complete, representative cycle of “seismic reversal” embedding in the changes of seismicity patterns before and after the Chi-Chi earthquake.     

Source depth as a useful parameter in the discrimination of earthquakes and underground explosions

In order to identify whether observed seismic signals are generated by an underground nuclear explosion or an earthquake, it is adequate to rely on one efficient identifier that provides a reasonably good clue in an unambiguous way. Although it is generally accepted that multi-station, multi-parameter discrimination can provide separation between explosions and earthquakes, it has been observed that cases do arise where signal characteristics cannot be established distinctly and satisfactorily. In the so-called “difficult” cases which are associated with some ambiguity in deducing the nature of the source using single-station seismograms, it is shown in this paper that a reliable estimate of source depth proves extremely useful. Out of the eleven typical examples of “not-easy-to-discriminate” events recorded at the Gauribidanur short-period seismic array in Southern India, seven could be successfully identified as earthquakes and the remaining four as probable underground explosions on the basis of focal-depth estimates from multi-station data.     

A review on the statistical significance of VAN predictions

A Special Issue (Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1996) was focused on the question whether the VAN predictions outperform random chance. The majority of the participants of this Debate was selected to be critics against VAN, but Varotsos and co-workers accepted to participate and responded to the critical comments. VAN critics, including Geller (1996), share the same “requirements”, which decrease the success rate by 50% and the alarm rate by a factor 4–5. Furthermore, these “requirements”, when applied to an ideally perfect earthquake prediction method (which successfully predicts all earthquakes above a certain threshold, and does not issue any false alarm), lead to the following paradoxes: (a) the success rate is below 100%, (b) the alarm rate is 23% only, and (c) the ideal precursors are “postseismic” signals. Recent statistical treatments by Hamada (1996) and by Aceves et al. (1996) coincide to the conclusion that VAN predictions cannot be ascribed to chance.     

Magmatic evolution of the differentiated ultramafic, alkaline and carbonatite intrusion of Vuoriyarvi (Kola Peninsula, Russia). A LA-ICP-MS study of apatite

The nature of the petrogenetic links between carbonatites and associated silicate rocks is still under discussion (i.e., [Gittins J., Harmer R.E., 2003. Myth and reality of the carbonatite–silicate rock “association”. Period di Mineral. 72, 19–26.]). In the Paleozoic Kola alkaline province (NW Russia), the carbonatites are spatially and temporally associated to ultramafic cumulates (clinopyroxenite, wehrlite and dunite) and alkaline silicate rocks of the ijolite–melteigite series [(Kogarko, 1987), (Kogarko et al., 1995), (Verhulst et al., 2000), (Dunworth and Bell, 2001) and (Woolley, 2003)]. In the small (≈ 20 km²) Vuoriyarvi massif, apatite is typically a liquidus phase during the magmatic evolution and so it can be used to test genetic relationships. Trace elements contents have been obtained for both whole rocks and apatite (by LA-ICP-MS). The apatites define a single continuous chemical evolution marked by an increase in REE and Na (belovite-type of substitution, i.e., 2Ca²⁺ = Na⁺ + REE³⁺). This evolution possibly reflects a fractional crystallisation process of a single batch of isotopically homogeneous, mantle-derived magma.The distribution of REE between apatite and their host carbonatite have been estimated from the apatite composition of a carbonatite vein, belonging to the Neskevara conical-ring-like vein system. This carbonatite vein is tentatively interpreted as a melt. So, the calculated distribution coefficients are close to partition coefficients. Rare earth elements are compatible in apatite (D > 1) with a higher compatibility for the middle REE (D_Sm : 6.1) than for the light (D_La : 4.1) and the heavy (D_Yb : 1) REE.