线状中尺度对流系统内多个强降水单体的结构演变及闪电活动特征

利用多普勒雷达、SAFIR3000三维闪电定位系统和气象自动站等观测资料,以线状中尺度对流系统内多个γ中尺度强降水单体为研究对象,揭示了单体之间、单体与β中尺度线状对流系统的多种相互关系,设计多种雷达参量对单体的结构演变进行定量化描述,进一步建立了对流单体结构演变与闪电活动的相互关系。得到以下结论：（1）线状中尺度对流系统内顺义、房山、固安、宝坻对流单体分别造成了1 h降雨23、50、27、70 mm,在其演变过程中,顺义单体被另一个单体追逐、供给,房山单体包括2个更小单体的合并过程,而固安、宝坻单体的初生和发展与线状中尺度对流系统是被喂养、吞食的关系。（2）设计的雷达参量V₄₀（40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、V_40UP-6（6 km高度以上40 dBz强回波核的体积大小）、S_ET11（回波顶在11 km处的回波范围大小）量化描述了单体的三维结构演变特征,F_ic（云闪频数）和F_cg（地闪频数）与上述雷达参量关系密切,如与V_40UP-6的相关系数为0.63—0.97;而F_ic比F_cg更敏感地呼应单体结构的变化。（3）固安单体在成熟阶段,主正电荷区（即辐射点最大密集区所处的地方）维持在较低位置,远低于其他单体在成熟阶段主正电荷区的高度。（4）在对流单体合并后,F_ic和F_cg增大且主正电荷区明显抬升、闪电频数陡增对应降水强度增大、闪电频数峰值超前于降雨强度极值等特征,对灾害天气的预警具有积极意义。     

2014年8月南京青奥会开幕式人工减雨作业回波分析

为评估重大赛事活动场馆的人工减雨作业效果,利用南京信息工程大学C波段双偏振多普勒雷达（C-Pol NUIST）资料、探空及地面降水等资料,对2014年8月16日南京青奥会开幕式人工减雨作业效果进行分析。用交叉相关法TREC （Tracking Radar Echoes by Correlation）追踪回波单体,统计作业点上下游的回波强度比值的变化,分析了反射率因子、径向速度、回波顶高（ET）、差分反射率因子Z_dr和相关系数ρ_hv的回波特征以及风矢位温（V-3θ）图表示的大气结构特征。研究表明,在减雨目标区的目标时段,回波强度和回波顶高均呈减弱趋势,减雨作业在播撒催化剂间歇时段和作业后会导致更显著的短时强降水。研究结果为回波产品评估人工减雨的最佳作业时间、作业部位和作业效果提供决策依据。     

南昌地区雷击事件雷达回波特征分析

【目的】南昌地区地处亚热带地区,为了更好地监测预警雷电天气,提醒人们减少雷击事件的发生。【方法】使用南昌市历史雷击事件资料、江西雷达拼图资料和南昌、九江SA雷达基数据等资料,采用天气学、雷达气象学等原理及方法,对南昌地区雷击事件的雷达回波特征进行分析。【结果】（1）2013—2022年雷击事件共出现23次,孤立单体回波有2段闪电高发期,超级单体、飑线回波带和短带回波只有1个闪电高发期。（2）500 hPa高空槽、中层切变及西南急流等天气系统重叠最易产生雷击事件。（3）飑线回波带是由多个对流单体、强回波单体甚至超级单体回波排列组成的带状回波;短带回波长度比飑线回波带要短,回波强度也偏弱。【结论】上述结论为南昌地区雷电天气的监测预警提供分析依据。     

基于地闪数据的雷电流幅值累积频率公式探讨

利用天气雷达厂商提供的雷达基数据类 CINRADPolarDat处理解析雷达基数据,对雷达基数据进行解码,实时检索新一代天气雷达体扫基数据,提取回波强度、范围大小、位置等基本信息作为报警判据,并将报警判据分为安全级、观察级、预警级和警报级四个警戒级别进行报警提示。系统通过Microsoft Visual Studio 2005开发环境采用VB60语言编程,实现了新一代天气雷达探测数据实时报警功能,自动判断警戒级别并通过发出文字、声音、手机短信及拨打电话等不同报警方式提醒业务服务人员,避免突发灾害天气遗漏,做到临近突发灾害性天气快速跟踪预警与服务。

     

江淮地区龙卷超级单体风暴及其环境参数分析

利用多普勒雷达探测资料和NCEP再分析资料,对2003—2010年发生在江淮地区的6个龙卷超级单体风暴及其环境参数进行了分析。研究表明：（1）龙卷超级单体风暴H_BASE平均为1.7 km,H_TOP平均为9.1 km;H多在风暴的下部,近于下部的1/4处。H_BASE平均值比江淮地区各种超级单体的平均值低得多,H_TOP则略低。（2）龙卷超级单体I_VIL平均为25.6 kg/m²,Z_MX平均为54.8 dBz。和江淮地区超级单体相比,龙卷I_VIL要小得多,而龙卷Z_MX略低。（3）龙卷超级单体的中气旋M_BASE、M_TOP和M_SHR平均值分别为1.2 km、3.9 km和14.4×10^-3s^-1,和江淮地区超级单体相比,龙卷M_BASE、M_TOP明显低,而M_SHR略高。（4）TVS参数最强时的V_AD在12—45 m/s,V_LLD多大于30 m/s,V_MXD多超过30 m/s,V_MXD的高度不低于0.8 km,T_DPT在2.4—6.4 km,T_BASE在0.7—1.5 km,T_TOP在2.3—6.4 km,T_MXSHR超过22×10^-3s^-1。TVS参数最强时间与龙卷实际时间基本吻合,平均相差4.2 min;平均而言,TVS出现后6 min有龙卷发生。（5）雷达推算的龙卷超级单体的0—6 km风垂直切变比江淮地区超级单体的风垂直切变平均值高15.2%;龙卷发生前I_CAPE平均为1752 J/kg,I_K为38℃,850 hPa到地面风切变平均超过12 m/s,850—500 hPa温差平均为23.7℃。龙卷发生前能量处在中等到强的状态,大气不稳定性较强,风垂直切变大。     

带阻尼项的欧拉-泊松方程组的爆破解

研究了N维空间中带阻尼项的欧拉-泊松方程组的径向对称解的爆破.当方程组非奇异的经典解（ρ,u）在[0,R]上有紧支集（R>0是正常数）,且初始速度u满足一定的初值条件,借助积分法,其径向对称解会在有限时间内爆破.     

湖南人工增雨云型的分析判别与多普勒天气雷达指挥系统的研制应用

对湖南主要人工增雨对象——积云和积层混合云作了多普勒天气雷达回波分析与判别,发现对流云在不同发展阶段回波特征有明显差异,而积层混合云持续时间长,回波特征变化小。综合分析回波强度、回波顶高、含水量、云顶温度、回波移速、回波面积等参数,得出湖南的人工增雨指标和评分规则,并依此建立地面人工增雨多普勒天气雷达指挥系统。它可实现实时指挥,发布作业预警信息以及作业方位角、仰角、用弹量等作业参数指令,结合作业点GPS信息及GIS地理信息将指导产品通过网络分发到各作业炮点。试验表明,它能有效提高对作业时机的预判能力、对作业对象的选择能力以及对实时作业的指导能力。     

基于WebGIS的人工影响天气作业决策指挥平台设计

为了实现省级天气雷达数据共享,加快人工影响天气作业的现代化信息建设,提高作业的有效性和安全性,基于Web GIS技术构建了人工影响天气作业决策指挥平台,实现了多源雷达数据的实时动态显示,通过雷达回波数据、TITAN外推数据、安全射界图与作业点的叠加分析,为人工增雨和防雹工作提供作业建议和作业预警产品等决策信息,以增强对省、市、县地面人影作业指挥管理的时效、使作业更加高效和科学。     

人工增雨催化区跟踪方法与效果评估指标研究

如何利用新一代天气雷达作业前后回波的变化分析人工增雨效果,对提高人工影响天气的科学性有非常重要的意义。文章基于新一代天气雷达三维拼图和最大相关系数的雷达回波跟踪方法（TREC）,在考虑多个作业影响时间和催化剂扩散背景下,实现对高炮和飞机播云作业中催化区的连续跟踪,并计算区域内的最大反射率、垂直积分液态含水量等回波参数。利用2个降水过程,选择多个跟踪区域进行连续跟踪,详细分析了回波跟踪的合理性。选择北京的一次高炮增雨作业与一次模拟飞机作业,对其催化区进行跟踪。结果表明：利用TREC算法,能够合理跟踪回波在空间的垂直位置与水平位置,较好地跟踪单点、多点作业时催化区域移动,实时跟踪飞机播云催化区的回波变化,从而为人工增雨的效果评估提供了一个有意义的参考。     

陕西新一代天气雷达数据质量控制

统计分析了陕西新一代天气雷达资料中的固定地物、超折射和径向干扰回波分布情况,并介绍了相应的数据处理方法,重点对西安雷达数据中的强地物、超折射和径向干扰回波数据进行了质量控制,结果表明：（1）利用模板匹配和回波纹理结构能够有效识别抑制固定地物回波;（2）倾斜测试法结合回波强度和径向速度识别抑制超折射回波效果明显;（3）采用相邻径向有效库数比较和中值滤波识别抑制径向电磁干扰效果明显。

     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.