A unified earthquake catalogue for South Asia covering the period 1900–2014

Seismicity analysis is very much pertinent for Indian subcontinent and its adjoining region which is seismically active including many great earthquakes associated with collision and subduction tectonics in the northern, north-eastern part of the subcontinent and in the Andaman and Nicobar Island. An earthquake catalogue has been generated for South Asia covering the period 1900–2014 by compiling the records of earthquake occurrences from International Seismological Center, Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT), US Geological Survey, India Meteorological Department and published literature. The uniform magnitude scaling in moment magnitude M _W,GCMT is achieved through connecting relationships between different magnitude types. These relationships are derived by orthogonal standard regression analysis on available data pairs. The derived relationships have been compared with the existing equations already reported by others. The catalogue is subsequently subjected to a seismicity declustering algorithm to identify the foreshocks, main-shocks and aftershocks. The catalogue thus compiled is envisaged to be a useful resource for seismotectonic and seismic hazard studies in the region.

     

Multifractality in seismic sequences of NW Himalaya

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.

     

The inexact catalogue: the study of more than 1700 earthquakes from the XI to the XX century in Italy*

The relevant results of the study of more than 1700 Italian historical earthquakes from the year 1000 to 1982 are presented here. The research was carried out from 1983 to 1987 as part of a study promoted by ENEL (the National Electricity Board) for the seismic siting of nuclear power plants. A single coherent project has been developed, that involved 111 historical researchers who operated in 813 research centres in Italy and abroad. Problems such as the methods, research, analysis and interpretation of the numerous and various effects caused both by destructive and non-destructive earthquakes recorded in the historical sources, have been considered on a large scale for the first time. The earthquake records, collected in a data bank and interpreted according to a multi-disciplinary historical and seismological approach, have allowed the detailed reconstruction of the location and chronology of both individual and repeated events. This major research study has allowed us to evaluate the inexactness of the present Catalogue of Italian earthquakes in relation to the parameters of intensity, location and dating. From the synthesis of the results of the revision emerged sufficient information to value the reliability of the present Catalogue. TERRA Nova (1989) 1 , 151–162.     

The record of historic earthquakes in lake sediments of Central Switzerland

Deformation structures in lake sediments in Central Switzerland can be attributed to strong historic earthquakes. The type and spatial distribution of the deformation structures reflect the historically documented macroseismic intensities thus providing a useful calibration tool for paleoseismic investigations in prehistoric lake sediments.The Swiss historical earthquake catalogue shows four moderate to strong earthquakes with moment magnitudes of M_w=5.7 to M_w=6.9 and epicentral intensities of I₀=VII to I₀=IX that affected the area of Central Switzerland during the last 1000 years. These are the 1964 Alpnach, 1774 Altdorf, 1601 Unterwalden, and 1356 Basel earthquakes. In order to understand the effect of these earthquakes on lacustrine sediments, four lakes in Central Switzerland (Sarner See, Lungerer See, Baldegger See, and Seelisberg Seeli) were investigated using high-resolution seismic data and sediment cores. The sediments consist of organic- and carbonate-rich clayey to sandy silts that display fine bedding on the centimeter to millimeter scale. The sediments are dated by historic climate and environmental records, ¹³⁷Cs activity, and radiocarbon ages. Deformation structures occur within distinct zones and include large-scale slumps and rockfalls, as well as small-scale features like disturbed and contorted lamination and liquefaction structures. These deformations are attributed to three of the abovementioned earthquakes. The spatial distribution of deformation structures in the different lakes clearly reflects the historical macroseismic dataset: Lake sediments are only affected if they are situated within an area that underwent groundshaking not smaller than intensity VI to VII. We estimate earthquake size by relating the epicentral distance of the farthest liquefaction structure to earthquake magnitude. This relationship is in agreement with earthquake size estimations based on the historical dataset.     

Information background of 11th–15th centuries earthquakes located by the current catalogues in Vrancea (Romania)

Earthquake catalogues for Romania supply for 11th–15th century earthquakes located in the region of Vrancea records that consist of a complete set of parameters, including magnitude and depth. Scope of this paper is to verify the reliability and consistency of these parameters with the informative background as explicitly referenced by the catalogues. After retrieving the original sources they mention, the set of data appeared to be related almost exclusively to the Russian plain and too poor to be at the very origin of the parameter assessment. Data for 19th–20th century earthquakes, such as instrumental locations and CMT solutions, added to the understanding of the macroseismic response of the Russian plain to Vrancea earthquakes. On the one hand, the investigation and analysis of historical earthquake records for the fourteen events listed by the catalogues in the 11th–15th centuries has shown that for three earthquakes (1022, 1038, 1258) no primary sources could be traced, and three more earthquakes (1091, 1170 and 1328) are attested only by scarcely reliable records and had to be classified as doubtful, and one (1473) is simply a duplication of the 1471 event. On the other hand, the availability of data on recent earthquakes that may be compared to historical ones in terms of macroseismic effects allowed the authors to agree with the previous catalogue compilers’ solution with regard to both magnitude and depth of the past earthquakes for which do exist reliable primary historical records.     

Climate extremes: an observation and projection of its impacts on food production in ASEAN

Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M _w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M _w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.     

A ‘cluster’ of earthquakes in the Apennines at the end of XIII century

The assessment of seismicity in many areas of Italy hinges on poorly known earthquakes listed by the seismic catalogue on the grounds of single, poor quality data taken from seismological compilations which, in most cases, did not adopt a consistently critical outlook in processing their miscellaneous information. Starting from such datasets it was easy to misunderstand, lose and duplicate evidence and events. This study was initiated to see whether better results might be attained by a more careful reprocessing of the same data already gathered by compilations. Six important, but poorly known, earthquakes were listed by the Italian catalogue in the selected time-window (1292–1294): according to the results of the study one of them is to be back-dated by a century, three others should be reduced to one, another can be confirmed and the last one is a fake. The author is indebted to Paola Albini, Romano Camassi, Magda Minoli, Laura Mucci and Massimiliano Stucchi for moral and material support.     

Effect of Aftershocks on Earthquake Hazard Estimation: An Example from the North Anatolian Fault Zone

In order to investigate the effect of aftershocks on earthquake hazard estimation, earthquake hazard parameters (_m, b and M_max) have been estimated by the maximum likelihood method from the main shocks catalogue and the raw earthquakes catalogue for the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). The main shocks catalogue has been compiled from the raw earthquake catalogue by eliminating the aftershocks using the window method. The raw earthquake catalogue consisted of instrumentally detected earthquakes between 1900 and 1992, and historical earthquakes that occurred between 1000–1900. For the events of the mainshock catalogue the Poisson process is valid and for the raw earthquake catalogue it does not fit. The paper demonstrates differences in the hazard outputs if on one hand the main catalogues and on the other hand the raw catalogue is used. The maximum likelihood method which allows the use of the mixed earthquake catalogue containing incomplete (historical) and complete (instrumental) earthquake data is used to determine the earthquake hazard parameters. The maximum regional magnitude (M_max, the seismic activity rate (_m), the mean return period (R) and the b value of the magnitude-frequency relation have been estimated for the 24°–31° E, 31°–41° E, 41°–45° E sections of the North Anatolian Fault Zone from the raw earthquake catalogue and the main shocks catalogue. Our results indicate that inclusion of aftershocks changes the b value and the seismic activity rate _m depending on the proportion of aftershocks in a region while it does not significantly effect the value of the maximum regional magnitude since it is related to the maximum observed magnitude. These changes in the earthquake hazard parameters caused the return periods to be over- and underestimated for smaller and larger events, respectively.     

Preliminary seismic hazard maps of Slovenia

The preparation of the preliminary seismic hazard maps of the territory of Slovenia has been based on an expansion of the basic approach laid out by Cornell in 1968. Three seismic source models were prepared. Two of them are based mainly on the earthquake catalogue using the Poissonian probability model. A map of seismic energy release and a map of earthquake epicenter density are used to delineate seismic sources in these models. The geometry of the third model which is based on a rough estimate of seismotectonic setting is taken from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of a nuclear power plant in Slovenia. Published ground motion attenuation models based on strong motion records of recent strong earthquakes in Italy are used. Test maps for variable and uniform b-values are presented. The computer program, Seisrisk III, developed by the U.S. Geological Survey is used.     

“Terrae motus factus est”: earthquakes in Switzerland before A.D. 1000. A critical approach

We focus on Swiss earthquakes in antiquity and the early medieval period before A.D. 1000. We have information on less than half a dozen earthquakes within this era, since written records for the first half of the first millennium A.D. are minimal, and there is little hope of finding more written evidence for earthquakes. Furthermore, interpreting the documents at hand is somewhat complex. For the 6th century Gregory of Tours in Historia Francorum gives hints of a rockslide near the castle Tauredunum (Le Grammont) in the Swiss canton Valais, an event that has been considered in the literature as caused by an earthquake. The Carolingian period (ca. 750–950) included the rise of some very important cultural centers in various parts of today’s Switzerland. For instance, the ecclesiastical culture in St. Gallen generated a remarkable number of written records, which survived for our use in a unique manner. From the 9th and 10th centuries, we have evidence for earthquakes in the years 849, 867, 902, and 944. However, information on them remains so scarce that their location and intensity are generally difficult to assess. Nevertheless, the finding of a new document - a memoir written by the abbot of Reichenau - offers some insight into the A.D. 849 event and its reportedly aftershocks.

Analyses of Seismic Deformation at the Kibyra Roman Stadium,Southwest Turkey

The ancient city of Kibyra in southwest Turkey has the potential to reveal the location and date of historical earthquakes. The most compelling evidence for earthquake faulting is observed in the city's Roman stadium. Damage related to seismic shaking is characterized by systematically collapsed columns, dilated and collapsed walls, and by rotated and displaced blocks in the stadium. Detailed archaeoseismological observations suggest that Kibyra was affected by earthquakes that were also recorded in historical earthquake catalogs. Although there is no historical record of a large earthquake after the 5th century A.D., Optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of deposits under the collapsed blocks suggests a later seismic event. OSL results indicate that another large event occurred in southwest Turkey, probably around the 10–11th century A.D., and caused extensive damage (I_o = VIII‐IX) to the Kibyra stadium.     

Earthquake Hazard in Italy, 2001–2030

The study computes time-dependant earthquake probabilities on the basis of seismicity data mainly deriving from historic records. It provides a methodological approach useful for those countries where the scarcity of instrumental data and/or paleoseismological evidences requires that historical information shall be stressed. Thus, the conditional probability that damaging earthquakes (M ≥ 6) may occur in Italy in the next 30 years is shown, and the potential for the main worldwide known Italian cities with a cultural heritage is outlined. Earthquake probabilities are computed referring to the application of renewal processes, where the periodicity is analytically modelled by means of the Brownian Passage Time function; an estimate of the dispersion (i.e., uncertainty) introduced on probabilities is provided making use of Monte Carlo simulations. The computed probabilities refer to seismic source zones deriving from the spatial clustering of the historically documented seismicity. The computation of probabilities based on the interaction of earthquakes occurring in nearby zones, has been also attempted for a test area to explore the influence exerted by the stress transfer effect. The main findings of this study are that (1) seismic source zones in Southern Italy are the most prone to experience damaging earthquakes in the next 30-years, with conditional probabilities a large as 10%; and (2) the influence exerted by the earthquake interaction in increasing such probabilities, doesn’t seem to be relevant, because the mean recurrence times of large earthquakes (above the threshold magnitude of six chosen in this study) are in general much longer than the time shortening produced by the stress transfer.     

Reappraisal of great historical earthquakes in the northern Chile and southern Peru seismic gaps

A critical reappraisal of great historical interplate earthquakes in the occidental margin of South America, including southern Peru and northern Chile, is carried out.A spacetime distribution of the earthquakes associated to the seismotectonics regions defined by the rupture zones of the greatest events (1868, Mw = 8.8 and 1877, Mw = 8.8) is obtained. Both regions are seismic gaps that are in the maturity state of their respective earthquake cycles. The region associated to the 1868 earthquake presents a notable seismic quiescence in the present century.     

Quantifying the role of sandy–silty sediments in generating slope failures during earthquakes: example from the Algerian margin

The Algerian margin is a seismically active region, where during the last century, several large magnitude earthquakes took place. This study combines geotechnical and sedimentological data with numerical modelling to quantitatively assess the present-day slope stability of the Algerian margin. Geotechnical laboratory tests, such as cyclic triaxial tests, oedometric tests and vane shear tests were carried out on sediment cores collected on the study area. The liquefaction potential of a sediment column located about 30 km from the Boumerdès earthquake epicentre of 21st May 2003 was evaluated theoretically for an earthquake of M _w  = 6.8. We show that thin sand and silt beds such as those described on recovered sediment cores are the main cause of sediment deformation and liquefaction during earthquakes. Numerical calculations showed that the slope failure may occur during an earthquake characterised by a PGA in excess of 0.1g, and also that, under a PGA of 0.2g liquefaction could be triggered in shallow silty–sandy deposits. Moreover, comparison of the predicted slope failure with failure geometries inferred from seafloor morphology showed that earthquakes and subsequent mass movements could explain the present-day morphology of the study area.     

Magnitude conversion problem for the Turkish earthquake data

Earthquake catalogues which form the main input in seismic hazard analysis generally report earthquake magnitudes in different scales. Magnitudes reported in different scales have to be converted to a common scale while compiling a seismic data base to be utilized in seismic hazard analysis. This study aims at developing empirical relationships to convert earthquake magnitudes reported in different scales, namely, surface wave magnitude, M _S, local magnitude, M _L, body wave magnitude, m _b and duration magnitude, M _d, to the moment magnitude (M _w). For this purpose, an earthquake data catalogue is compiled from domestic and international data bases for the earthquakes occurred in Turkey. The earthquake reporting differences of various data sources are assessed. Conversion relationships are established between the same earthquake magnitude scale of different data sources and different earthquake magnitude scales. Appropriate statistical methods are employed iteratively, considering the random errors both in the independent and dependent variables. The results are found to be sensitive to the choice of the analysis methods.     

Probabilities for the occurrences of medium to large earthquakes in northeast India and adjoining region

The return periods and occurrence probabilities related to medium and large earthquakes (M _w 4.0–7.0) in four seismic zones in northeast India and adjoining region (20°–32°N and 87°–100°E) have been estimated with the help of well-known extreme value theory using three methods given by Gumbel (1958), Knopoff and Kagan (1977) and Bury (1999). In the present analysis, the return periods, the most probable maximum magnitude in a specified time period and probabilities of occurrences of earthquakes of magnitude M ≥ 4.0 have been computed using a homogeneous and complete earthquake catalogue prepared for the period between 1897 and 2007. The analysis indicates that the most probable largest annual earthquakes are close to 4.6, 5.1, 5.2, 5.5 and 5.8 in the four seismic zones, namely, the Shillong Plateau Zone, the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone and the whole region, respectively. The most probable largest earthquakes that may occur within different time periods have been also estimated and reported. The study reveals that the estimated mean return periods for the earthquake of magnitude M _w 6.5 are about 6–7 years, 9–10 years, 59–78 years, 72–115 years and 88–127 years in the whole region, the Arakan-Yoma subduction zone, the Himalayan Thrusts Zone, the Shillong Plateau Zone and the Eastern Syntaxis Zone, respectively. The study indicates that Arakan-Yoma subduction zone has the lowest mean return periods and high occurrence probability for the same earthquake magnitude in comparison to the other zones. The differences in the hazard parameters from zone to zone reveal the high crustal heterogeneity and seismotectonics complexity in northeast India and adjoining regions.     

Individual and societal risk owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy)

This paper deals with the estimation of both individual and societal risks owing to landslides in the Campania region (southern Italy) thanks to the availability of an extensive catalogue of historical incident data spanning from the 5^th century up to now. Individual risk is estimated by computing the landslide mortality rate. Societal risk is measured by plotting the annual frequency F of events causing N or more fatalities against the number N of fatalities (i.e. an F–N curve). The results obtained show that in Campania both individual and societal risks owing to landslides are very high when compared to similar risks of the Italian territory. Moreover, the analysis of the incident data clearly highlights the most prone areas to catastrophic events, essentially related to the occurrence of flow-like fast-moving phenomena, where the societal risk is proved to be one of the highest in Europe.     

Sensitivity of tidal marshes as recorders of major megathrust earthquakes: constraints from the 25 December 2016 Mw 7.6 Chiloé earthquake,Chile

We present evidence of land-level change resulting from the 2016 M_w 7.6 Chiloé earthquake from tidal wetlands along the southern coastline of Isla de Chiloé, Chile, to test criteria for the detection of low-level, <0.1 m, coseismic land-level change. In order to record coseismic land-level change in tidal wetland sediments, both the creation and preservation thresholds must be exceeded. High-resolution diatom analyses of sediment blocks at two tidal marshes reveal that the 2016 earthquake exceeded the creation threshold and a statistically significant change in diatom assemblage is recorded. In contrast, the preservation threshold was not exceeded and the record of coseismic land-level motion is not preserved at any location visited. After nine months, interseismic and coseismic changes are statistically indistinguishable. The most sensitive part of the tidal wetland is not consistent between research locations, possibly as a result of changes in sedimentation after the earthquake. We compare records of change from great earthquakes in Alaska with the record from the Chiloé earthquake to explore the detection limit. We propose that coastal palaeoseismological records are highly likely to underestimate the frequency of major (M_w 7–8) earthquakes, with important implications for recurrence intervals and assessment of future seismic hazards.     

The 2nd century AD earthquake in central Italy: archaeoseismological data and seismotectonic implications

The 2nd century AD earthquake in central Italy is only known by an epigraph that mentions restorations to a damaged weighing-house at the ancient locality of Pagus Interpromium. The available seismic catalogues report this event with the conventional date of 101 AD, a magnitude M _aw of 6.3, and an epicentral location at the village of San Valentino in Abruzzo Citeriore, in the province of Pescara. In order to improve the knowledge of the damage pattern, we gathered all the archaeological data collected during modern excavations at sites located in the area, which were presumably struck by the earthquake. This information is mainly represented by (1) stratigraphic units due to the sudden collapse of buildings over still frequented floors; (2) stratigraphic units demonstrating restoration or re-building of edifices; (3) stratigraphic units formed as the result of the abandonment of sites or of their lack of frequentation for decades or centuries. Only stratigraphic evidence consistent with an earthquake occurrence during the 2nd century AD has been considered. The most recent archaeological material found in a collapsed unit is a coin of Antoninus Pius, dated at 147–148 AD. This may represent a post quem date very close to the occurrence of the earthquake. The gathered information, plus the stratigraphic data that excluded the earthquake occurrence at some sites, has allowed us to roughly delineate an area of possible damage, including the Sulmona Plain and surrounding areas. Comparisons between the possible 2nd century damage distribution and (i) the damage patterns of more recent historical events that have struck the investigated area, (ii) the distribution of virtual intensities obtained by simulating an earthquake having an epicenter in the Sulmona Plain and applying an intensity attenuation relationship and (iii) a shaking scenario obtained by modelling the activation of the major active fault of the Sulmona Plain area (the Mt. Morrone fault) have revealed consistency between the ancient earthquake and the activation of this fault. Since no other historical events can be attributed to this active fault, we conclude that the time that has elapsed since the last fault activation should be in the order of 1,850 years, i.e. a time span that is very close to the recurrence interval of Apennine seismogenic sources. Moreover, considering the fault length, the causative source may be responsible for earthquakes with M up to 6.6–6.7. The comparison between the presumed 2nd century damage and the shaking scenario suggests that the magnitude mentioned is consistent with the presumed effects of the ancient earthquake. Finally, considering that Sulmona (the most important town in the region investigated) is located in the middle of the Mt. Morrone fault hanging wall, we consider it as the probable epicentral area. Therefore, to summarise the information on the 2nd century AD earthquake, we can conclude that (i) it occurred shortly after 147–148 AD; (ii) a magnitude M _w 6.6–6.7 can be attributed to it and (iii) the probable macroseismic epicentral area was Sulmona.     

Real time earthquake forecasting in Italy

We have applied an earthquake clustering epidemic model to real time data at the Italian Earthquake Data Center operated by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) for short-term forecasting of moderate and large earthquakes in Italy. In this epidemic-type model every earthquake is regarded, at the same time, as being triggered by previous events and triggering following earthquakes. The model uses earthquake data only, with no explicit use of tectonic, geologic, or geodetic information. The forecasts are displayed as time-dependent maps showing both the expected rate density of M_l ≥ 4.0 earthquakes and the probability of ground shaking exceeding Modified Mercalli Intensity VI (PGA ≥ 0.01 g) in an area of 100 × 100 km² around the zone of maximum expected rate density in the following 24 h. For testing purposes, the overall probability of occurrence of an M_l ≥ 4.5 earthquake in the same area of 100 × 100 km² is also estimated. The whole procedure is tested in real time, for internal use only, at the INGV Earthquake Data Center.Forecast verification procedures have been carried out in forward-retrospective way on the 2006–2007 INGV data set, making use of statistical tools as the Relative Operating Characteristics (ROC) diagrams. These procedures show that the clustering epidemic model performs up to several hundred times better than a simple random forecasting hypothesis. The seismic hazard modeling approach so developed, after a suitable period of testing and refinement, is expected to provide a useful contribution to real time earthquake hazard assessment, even with a possible practical application for decision making and public information.