Study on snowmelt runoff simulation in the Kaidu River basin

Alpine snowmelt is an important generation mode for runoff in the source region of the Tarim River basin, which covers four subbasins characterized by large area, sparse gauge stations, mixed runoff supplied by snowmelt and rainfall, and remarkably spatially heterogeneous precipitation. Taking the Kaidu River basin as a research area, this study analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the variables and parameters of the Snow Runoff Model and discusses the corresponding determination strategy to improve the accuracy of snowmelt simulation and forecast. The results show that: (i) The temperature controls the overall tendency of simulated runoff and is dominant to simulation accuracy, as the measured daily mean temperature cannot represent the average level of the same elevation in the basin and that directly inputting it to model leads to inaccurate simulations. Based on the analysis of remote sensing snow maps and simulation results, it is reasonable to approximate the mean temperature with 0.5 time daily maximum temperature. (ii) For the conflict between the limited gauge sta-tion and remarkably spatial heterogeneity of rainfall, it is not realistic to compute rainfall for each elevation zone. After the measured rainfall is multiplied by a proper coefficient and adjusted with runoff coefficient for rainfall, the measured rainfall data can satisfy the model demands. (iii) Adjusting time lag according to the variation of snowmelt and rainfall position can improve the simulation precision of the flood peak process. (iv) Along with temperature, the rainfall increases but cannot be completely monitored by limited gauge stations, which results in precision deterioration.     

Application and evaluation of a snowmelt runoff model in the Tamor River basin,Eastern Himalaya using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) data assimilation approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree‐day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash–Sutcliffe metric ~0.84, annual volume bias < 3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002–2006 period is estimated to be 29.7 ± 2.9% (which includes 4.2 ± 0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3 ± 2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000–5500 m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9 ± 3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9 ± 1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree‐day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The applicability of a parsimonious model for local and regional prediction of runoff

Abstract

The Hydrological Recursive Model (HRM), a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was applied for local and regional simulation of hourly discharges in the transnational Alzette River basin (Luxembourg-France-Belgium). The model was calibrated for a range of various sub-basins with a view to analysing its ability to reproduce the variability of basin responses during flood generation. The regionalization of the model parameters was obtained by fitting simultaneously the runoff series of calibration sub-basins after their spatial discretization in lithological contrasting isochronal zones. The runoff simulations of the model agreed well with the recorded runoff series. Significant correlations with some basin characteristics and, noticeably, the permeability of geological formations, could be found for two of the four free model parameters. The goodness of fit for runoff predictions using the derived regional parameter set was generally satisfactory, particularly for the statistical characteristics of streamflow. A more physically-based modelling approach, or at least an explicit treatment of quick surface runoff, is expected to give better results for high peak discharge.     

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff in the water source area of Beijing,China

Abstract

Quantitative assessment of the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff is very important for regional sustainable water resources adaptive management. In this study, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test is used to identify the trends in and change points of the annual runoff with the aim of analysing the changing characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The study presents the analytical derivation of a method which combines six Budyko hypothesis-based water–energy balance equations with the Penman-Monteith equation to separate the effects of climate change and human activities. The method takes several climate variables into consideration. Results based on data from the Yongding River basin, China, show that climate change is estimated to account for 10.5–12.6% of the reduction in annual runoff and human activities contribute to 87.4–89.5% of the runoff decline. The results indicate that human activities are the main driving factors for the reduction in runoff.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.Y. Xu     

Semi‐distributed flood runoff model at the subcontinental scale for southwestern Iran

Rainfall–runoff modelling, as a surface hydrological process, on large‐scale data‐poor basins is currently a major topic of investigation that requires the model parameters be identified by using basin physical characteristics rather than calibration. This paper describes the application of the TOPMODEL framework accompanied by a kinematic wave model to the Karun River sub‐basins in southwestern Iran with just one conceptual parameter for calibration. ISLSCP1, HYDRO1K and Reynolds data sets are presented in a geographical information system and used as data sources for meteorological information, hydrological features and soil characteristics of the study area respectively. The results show that although the model developed can adequately predict flood runoff in the catchment with only one calibrated parameter, it is suggested that the effect of surface reservoirs be considered in the proposed model. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of annual high‐water events for the Mackenzie River basin,Canada

River ice break‐up is known to have important morphological, ecological and socio‐economic effects on cold‐regions river environments. One of the most persistent effects of the spring break‐up period is the occurrence of high‐water events. A return‐period assessment of maximum annual nominal water depths occurring during the spring break‐up and open‐water season at 28 Water Survey of Canada hydrometric sites over the 1913–2002 time period in the Mackenzie River basin is presented. For the return periods assessed, 13 (14) stations are dominated by peak events occurring during the spring break‐up (open‐water) season. One location is determined to have a mixed signal. A regime classification is proposed to separate ice‐ and open‐water dominated systems. As part of the regime classification procedure, specific characteristics of return‐period patterns including alignment, and difference between the 2 and 10‐year events are used to identify regime types. A dimensionless stage‐discharge plot allows for a contrast of the relative magnitudes of flows required to generate maximum nominal water‐depth events in the different regimes. At sites where discharge during the spring break‐up is approximately one‐quarter or greater than the magnitude of the peak annual discharge, nominal water depths can be expected to exceed those occurring during the peak annual discharge event. Several physical factors (location, basin area, stream order, gradient, river orientation, and climate) are considered to explain the differing regimes and discussed relative to the major sub‐regions of the MRB. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and Her Majesty the Queen in right of Canada.     

Rainfall trend and its implications for water resource management within the Yarra River catchment,Australia

Rainfall is the key climatic variable that governs the regional hydrologic cycle and availability of water resources. Recent studies have analysed the changes in rainfall patterns at global as well as regional scales in Australia. Recent studies have also suggested that any analysis of hydroclimatic variables should be performed at the local scale rather than at a large or global scale because the trends and their effects may be different from one location to the other. Because no studies were found specific to the Yarra River catchment, which is an important catchment in Victoria, Australia, this study performs a spatiotemporal trend analysis on long‐term rainfall records at 15 measuring stations within the catchment. The Mann–Kendall test was used to detect trends, and Sen's slope estimator was used to calculate the slopes in both monthly and annual rainfall. Moreover, a cumulative summation technique was used to identify the trend beginning year, and prewhitening criteria were tested to check for autocorrelation in the data. The results showed that the monthly rainfall has generally decreasing trends except in January and June. Significant decreasing rainfall trends were observed in May (among the autumn months of March, April and May) at most stations and also in some other months at several stations. A decreasing trend was also observed in the annual rainfall at all stations. This study indicates that there has been a consistent reduction in rainfall over the catchment, both spatially and temporally over the past 50 years, which will have important implications for the future management of water resources. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Uncertainty issues of a conceptual water balance model for a semi‐arid watershed in north‐west of China

Hydrological models are useful tools for better understanding the hydrological processes and performing the hydrological prediction. However, the reliability of the prediction depends largely on its uncertainty range. This study mainly focuses on estimating model parameter uncertainty and quantifying the simulation uncertainties caused by sole model parameters and the co‐effects of model parameters and model structure in a lumped conceptual water balance model called WASMOD (Water And Snow balance MODeling system). The validity of statistical hypotheses on residuals made in the model formation is tested as well, as it is the base of parameter estimation and simulation uncertainty evaluation. The bootstrap method is employed to examine the parameter uncertainty in the selected model. The Yingluoxia watershed at the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin in north‐west of China is selected as the study area. Results show that all parameters in the model can be regarded as normally distributed based on their marginal distributions and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, although they appear slightly skewed for two parameters. Their uncertainty ranges are different from each other. The model residuals are tested to be independent, homoscedastic and normally distributed. Based on such valid hypotheses of model residuals, simulation uncertainties caused by co‐effects of model parameters and model structure can be evaluated effectively. It is found that the 95% and 99% confidence intervals (CIs) of simulated discharge cover 42.7% and 52.4% of the observations when only parameter uncertainty is considered, indicating that parameter uncertainty has a great effect on simulation uncertainty but still cannot be used to explain all the simulation uncertainty in this study. The 95% and 99% CIs become wider, and the percentages of observations falling inside such CIs become larger when co‐effects of parameters and model structure are considered, indicating that simultaneous consideration of both parameters and model structure uncertainties accounts sufficient contribution for model simulation uncertainty. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of a water infiltration model for simulating water repellency of humus soil

One-dimensional infiltration experiments were conducted using hydrophilic and water-repellent soils from the Guishui River Basin to study the effects of soil water repellency on cumulative infiltration (CI) and the infiltration rate (IR). The test results show that, for the hydrophilic soil (HS) sample, CI increases monotonously with time and IR decreases monotonously. For the water-repellent soil (W-RS), however, the following characteristics were observed: (a) There is an inflection point in CI and a sudden increase in IR. Larger values of the initial soil water content produce an earlier and more significant inflection point in CI, and a larger peak value of IR. (b) The post-peak stable IR is greater than the pre-peak value, ignoring the beginning of rapid infiltration, and the overall IR presents a single peak. The applicability of various water infiltration models was analysed for the two soil types. Numerical analysis suggests the following conclusions: (a) For both HS and W-RS, the Kostiakov function, Gamma function, and Beta function (BF) models exhibit good applicability. (b) For W-RS, the Gauss function model not only reflects the monotonous decrease in IR, but also produces a steady IR in the initial stage, a gradual increase before the peak value, and a gradual decrease after the peak value. Similarly, the BF model reflects the monotonous decrease in IR. A piecewise BF reproduces the U-shaped change in rapid infiltration before the inflection point, as well as the gradual increase and right-skewed distribution curve of W-RS infiltration before and after the inflection point. The BF model achieves the best simulation accuracy and has the widest applicability.     

Challenges of hydrological analysis for water resource development in semi-arid mountainous regions: case study in Iran

Abstract

This study modified the BTOPMC (Block-wise TOPMODEL with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method) distributed hydrological model to make it applicable to semi-arid regions by introducing an adjustment coefficient for infiltration capacity of the soil surface, and then applied it to two catchments above the dams in the Karun River basin, located in semi-arid mountain ranges in Iran. The application results indicated that the introduced modification improved the model performance for simulating flood peaks generated by infiltration excess overland runoff at a daily time scale. The modified BTOPMC was found to fulfil the need to reproduce important signatures of basin hydrology for water resource development, such as annual runoff, seasonal runoff, low flows and flood flows. However, it was also very clear that effective model use was significantly constrained by the scarcity of ground-gauged precipitation data. Considerable efforts to improve the precipitation data acquisition should precede water resource development planning.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

The role of run-on for overland flow and the characteristics of runoff generation in the Loess Plateau,China

Abstract

The Loess Plateau in China is overlain by deep and loose soil. As in other semi-arid regions, convective precipitation produces storms, typically of short duration, relatively high intensity and limited areal extent. Infiltration excess (Hortonian mechanism) of precipitation is conventionally assumed to be more prominent than saturation excess (Dunne mechanism) for storm runoff generation. This assumption is true at a point during the storm. However, the runoff generation mechanism is altered when the runoff is conditioned by a lateral redistribution movement of water, i.e. run-on, as the spatial scale increases. In the Loess Plateau, the effects of run-on may be significant, because of the deep and loose surface soil layer. In this study, the role of run-on for overland flow in the Upper Wei River basin, located in the Loess Plateau, is evaluated by means of a simple numerical model at the hillslope scale. The results show that almost all the Hortonian overland flow infiltrates into the soil along the flat hillslope and dry gully before it reaches the river channel. Most of the runoff is generated from the saturated soil near the river channel and from the subsurface. The run-on process takes much longer than the infiltration, facilitating rainfall–runoff modelling at a daily time step. A hydrological model is employed to investigate the characteristics of runoff generation in the Upper Wei River basin. The analysis shows that the subsurface flow contribution to total streamflow is more than 53% from October to March, while the overland flow contribution exceeds 72% from April to September.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor Dawen Yang

Citation Liu, D.F., Tian, F.Q., Hu, H.C., and Hu, H.P., 2012. The role of run-on for overland flow and the characteristics of runoff generation in the Loess Plateau, China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1107–1117.     

Combining a rainfall–runoff model and a regionalization approach for flood and water resource assessment in the western Po Valley,Italy

ABSTRACT

Selecting the best structure and parameterization of rainfall–runoff models is not straightforward and depends on a broad number of factors. In this study, the “Modello Idrologico Semi-Distribuito in continuo” (MISDc) was tested on 63 mountainous catchments in the western Po Valley (Italy) and the optimal model parameters were regionalized using different strategies. The model performance was evaluated through several indexes analysing hydrological regime, high-flow condition and flow–duration curve (FDC). In general, MISDc provides a good fit behaviour with a Kling-Gupta Efficiency index greater than 0.5 for 100% and 84% of cases for calibration and validation, respectively. Concerning the regionalization, spatial proximity approach is the most accurate solution obtaining satisfactory performance. Lastly, the predicted FDCs showed an excellent similarity with the observed ones. Results encourage to apply MISDc over the study area for flood forecasting and for assessing water resources availability thanks to the modest computational efforts and data requirements.     

Application of semi‐distributed hydrological model for basin level water balance of the Ken basin of Central India

In the present study, a semi‐distributed hydrological model soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed for the Ken basin of Central India to predict the water balance. The entire basin was divided into ten sub basins comprising 107 hydrological response units on the basis of unique slope, soil and land cover classes using SWAT model. Sensitivity analysis of SWAT model was performed to examine the critical input variables of the study area. For Ken basin, curve number, available water capacity, soil depth, soil evaporation compensation factor and threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer (GWQ_MN) were found to be the most sensitive parameters. Yearly and monthly calibration (1985–1996) and validation (1997–2009) were performed using the observed discharge data of the Banda site in the Ken basin. Performance evaluation of the model was carried out using coefficient of determination, Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error‐observations standard deviation ratio, percent bias and index of agreement criterion. It was found that SWAT model can be successfully applied for hydrological evaluation of the Ken basin, India. The water balance analysis was carried out to evaluate water balance of the Ken basin for 25 years (1985–2009). The water balance exhibited that the average annual rainfall in the Ken basin is about 1132 mm. In this, about 23% flows out as surface run‐off, 4% as groundwater flow and about 73% as evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projection Pursuit Evaluation Model: Optimizing Scheme of Crop Planning for Agricultural Sustainable Development and Soil Resources Utilization

Planting structure influences the economic, social, and ecological benefits of crop farming as well as the use efficiency of water and arable land resources, and so crop planning (CP) benefits for agricultural sustainable development and soil resources utilization. The projection pursuit evaluation (PPE) model is put forward to solve the problem of selecting an optimizing scheme for CP by considering the indices of water‐saving and economic, social, and ecological benefits. The real‐coding‐based accelerating genetic algorithm (RAGA) is introduced to accelerate the calculation process. The model can translate multi‐indices into a single index by transforming high‐dimensional data to low‐dimensional space, which helps evaluate CP optimizing schemes. For example, the model is used to evaluate and select an optimal scheme of CP in the middle reaches of the Heihe mainstream basin in the arid area of northwest China. According to four criteria (high efficiency of resources use, economic rationality, social equity, and ecological security) 19 indices were chosen to evaluate 12 optimizing schemes of four kinds (economic‐benefit, food‐security, ecological‐benefit, and water‐saving programs) in 2006, 2020, and 2030. The result shows that, in the 3 years, the water‐saving program is always the optimized scheme in an arid region with water deficiency and fragile ecology. The evaluated results match up to the developmental conditions of crop farming in recent years. Moreover, the direction of the optimal projection could reflect the weight and orientation of indices objectively and accurately.     

Development of a flood water level estimation method using satellite images and a digital elevation model for the Mekong floodplain

We have developed a flood water level estimation method that only employs satellite images and a DEM. The method involves three steps: (1) discriminating flood areas and identifying clumps of each flood area, (2) extracting the edges of the identified flood area using a buffering technique, and (3) performing spatial interpolation to transform the extracted elevation to flood water levels. We compared the estimated flood water levels with the observed ones. The RMSE using the RADARSAT was 1.99 and 1.30 m at river and floodplain points, respectively, whereas the RMSE using the MODIS was 4.33 and 1.33 m at the river and floodplain points, respectively. Given that most errors are attributed to the DEM, the method exhibited good performance. Furthermore, the method reproduced the flow directions and flood water level changes during the flooding period. Thus, we demonstrated that the characteristics of flood inundation can be understood even when ground observation data cannot be obtained.     

Development of a three‐dimensional watershed modelling system for water cycle in the middle part of the Heihe rivershed,in the west of China

A three‐dimensional numerical modelling system is developed to study transformation processes of water resources in alluvial fan and river basin along the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, an arid and semi‐arid region. Integrating land utilization, remote sensing and geographic information systems, we have developed a numerical modelling system that can be used to quantify the effects of land use and anthropogenic activities on the groundwater system as well as to investigate the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Various hydraulic measurements are used to identify and calibrate the hydraulic boundary conditions and spatial distributions of hydraulic parameters. In the modelling study, various water exchanges and human effects on the watershed system are considered. These include water exchange between surface water and groundwater, groundwater pumping, lateral water recharges from mountain areas, land utilization, and infiltration and evaporation in the irrigation and non‐irrigation areas. The modelling system provides a quantitative method to describe spatial and temporal distributions and transformations between various water resources, and it has application to other watersheds in arid and semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.