Lumped hysteretic model for subsurface stormflow developed using downward approach

The terms ‘downward’ and ‘upward’ (synonymous with ‘top‐down’ and ‘bottom‐up’ respectively) are sometimes used when describing methods for developing hydrological models. A downward approach is used here to develop a lumped catchment‐scale model for subsurface stormflow at the 0·94 km² Slapton Wood catchment. During the development, as few assumptions as possible are made about the behaviour of subsurface stormflow at the catchment scale, and no assumptions are made about its behaviour at smaller scales. (In an upward approach, in contrast, the modelling would be based on assumptions about, and data for, the behaviour at smaller scales, such as the hillslope, plot, and point scales.) The model has a single store with a relatively simple relationship between discharge and storage, based on equations describing hysteretic patterns seen in a graph of discharge against storage. Double‐peaked hydrographs have been observed at the catchment outlet. Rainfall on the channel and infiltration‐excess and saturation‐excess runoff give a rapid response, and shallow subsurface stormflow gives a delayed response. Hydrographs are successfully simulated for the large delayed responses observed in 1971–1980 and 1989–1991, then a lumped model for the rapid response is coupled to the lumped hysteretic model and some double‐peaked hydrographs simulated. A physical interpretation is developed for the lumped hysteretic model, making use of information on patterns of perched saturation observed in 1982 on a hillslope at the Slapton Wood catchment. Downward and upward approaches are complementary, and the most robust way to develop and improve lumped catchment models is to iterate between downward and upward steps. Possible next steps are described. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing the performance of a physically based hydrological model using a proxy‐catchment approach in an agricultural environment

Physically based models are useful frameworks for testing intervention strategies designed to reduce elevated sediment loads in agricultural catchments. Evaluating the success of these strategies depends on model accuracy, generally established by a calibration and evaluation process. In this contribution, the physically based SHETRAN model was assessed in two similar U.K. agricultural catchments. The model was calibrated on the Blackwater catchment (18 km²) and evaluated in the adjacent Kit Brook catchment (22 km²) using 4 years of 15 min discharge and suspended sediment flux data. Model sensitivity to changes in single and multiple combinations of parameters and sensitivity to changes in digital elevation model resolution were assessed. Model flow performance was reasonably accurate with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 in Blackwater and 0.60 in Kit Brook. In terms of event prediction, the mean of the absolute percentage of difference (μAbs_diff) between measured and simulated flow volume (Qv), peak discharge (Qp), sediment yield (Sy), and peak sediment flux (Sp) showed larger values in Kit Brook (48% [Qv], 66% [Qp], 298% [Sy], and 438% [Sp]) compared with the Blackwater catchment (30% [Qv], 41% [Qp], 106% [Sy], and 86% [Sp]). Results indicate that SHETRAN can produce reasonable flow prediction but performs less well in estimation of sediment flux, despite reasonably similar hydrosedimentary behaviour between catchments. The sensitivity index showed flow volume sensitive to saturated hydraulic conductivity and peak discharge to the Strickler coefficient; sediment yield was sensitive to the overland flow erodibility coefficient and peak sediment flux to raindrop/leaf soil erodibility coefficient. The multiparameter sensitivity analysis showed that different combinations of parameters produced similar model responses. Model sensitivity to grid resolution presented similar flow volumes for different digital elevation model resolutions, whereas event peak and duration (for both flow and sediment flux) were highly sensitive to changes in grid size.     

Integrating glaciers raster‐based modelling in large catchments hydrological balance: the Rhone case study

A raster‐based glacier sub‐model was successfully introduced in the distributed hydrological model FEST‐WB to simulate the water balance and surface runoff of large Alpine catchments. The glacier model is based on temperature‐index approach for melt, on linear reservoir for melt water propagation into the ice and on mass balance for accumulation; the initialization of the volume of ice on the basin was based on a formulation depending on surface topography. The model was first tested on a sub‐basin of the Rhone basin (Switzerland), which is for 62% glaciated; the calibration and validation were based on comparison between simulated and observed discharge from 1999 to 2008. The model proved to be suitable to simulate the typical discharge seasonality of a heavily glaciated basin. The performance of the model was also tested by simulating discharge in the whole Swiss Rhone basin, in which glaciers contribution is not negligible, in fact, in summer, about the 40% of the discharge is due to glacier melt. The model allowed to take into account the volume of water coming from glaciers melt and its simple structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of climate change on hydrological regime of high mountain basins, with available meteorological forcing from current RCM. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling of wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology applied to two case studies

We used a conceptual modelling approach on two western Canadian mountainous catchments that were burned in separate wildfires in 2003 to explore the potential of using modelling approaches to generalize post‐wildfire catchment hydrology in cases where pre‐wildfire hydrologic data were present or absent. The Fishtrap Creek case study (McLure fire, British Columbia) had a single gauged catchment with both pre‐fire and post‐fire data, whereas the Lost Creek case study (Lost Ck. fire, Alberta) had several instrumented burned and reference catchments providing streamflows and climate data only for the post‐wildfire period. Wildfire impacts on catchment hydrology were assessed by comparing pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire model calibrated parameter sets for Fishtrap Creek (Fishtrap Ck.) and the calibrated parameters of two burned (South York Ck. and Lynx Ck.) and two unburned (Star Ck. and North York Ck.) catchments for Lost Ck. Model predicted streamflows for burned catchments were compared with unburned catchments (pre‐fire in the case of Fishtrap Ck. and unburned in the case of the Lost Ck.). Similarly, model predicted streamflows from unburned catchments were compared with burned catchments (post‐fire in the case of Fishtrap Ck. and burned in the case of the Lost Ck.). For Fishtrap Ck., different model parameters and streamflow behaviour were observed for pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire conditions. However, the burned and unburned model results from the Lost Ck. wildfire did not show differing streamflow responses to the wildfire. We found that this hydrological modelling approach is suitable where pre‐wildfire and post‐wildfire data are available but may provide limited additional insights where pre‐disturbance hydrologic data are unavailable. This may in part be because the conceptual modelling approach does not represent the physical catchment processes, whereas a physically based model may still provide insights into catchment hydrological response in these situations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing: investigating the hydrological functioning of a tropical catchment

Hypothesis testing about catchment functioning with conceptual hydrological models is affected by uncertainties in the model representation of reality as well as in the observed data used to drive and evaluate the model. We formulated a learning framework to investigate the role of observational uncertainties in hypothesis testing using conceptual models and applied it to the relatively data‐scarce tropical Sarapiqui catchment in Costa Rica. Observational uncertainties were accounted for throughout the framework that incorporated different choices of model structures to test process hypotheses, analyses of parametric uncertainties and effects of likelihood choice, a posterior performance analysis and (iteratively) formulation of new hypotheses. Estimated uncertainties in precipitation and discharge were linked to likely non‐linear near‐surface runoff generation and the potentially important role of soils in mediating the hydrological response. Some model‐structural inadequacies could be identified in the posterior analyses (supporting the need for an explicit soil‐moisture routine to match streamflow dynamics), but the available information about the observational uncertainties prevented conclusions about other process representations. The importance of epistemic data errors, the difficulty in quantifying them and their effect on model simulations was illustrated by an inconsistent event with long‐term effects. Finally we discuss the need for new data, new process hypotheses related to deep groundwater losses, and conclude that observational uncertainties need to be accounted for in hypothesis testing to reduce the risk of drawing incorrect conclusions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter estimation in semi‐distributed hydrological catchment modelling using a multi‐criteria objective function

Output generated by hydrologic simulation models is traditionally calibrated and validated using split‐samples of observed time series of total water flow, measured at the drainage outlet of the river basin. Although this approach might yield an optimal set of model parameters, capable of reproducing the total flow, it has been observed that the flow components making up the total flow are often poorly reproduced. Previous research suggests that notwithstanding the underlying physical processes are often poorly mimicked through calibration of a set of parameters hydrologic models most of the time acceptably estimates the total flow. The objective of this study was to calibrate and validate a computer‐based hydrologic model with respect to the total and slow flow. The quick flow component used in this study was taken as the difference between the total and slow flow. Model calibrations were pursued on the basis of comparing the simulated output with the observed total and slow flow using qualitative (graphical) assessments and quantitative (statistical) indicators. The study was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and a 10‐year historical record (1986–1995) of the daily flow components of the Grote Nete River basin (Belgium). The data of the period 1986–1989 were used for model calibration and data of the period 1990–1995 for model validation. The predicted daily average total flow matched the observed values with a Nash–Sutcliff coefficient of 0·67 during calibration and 0·66 during validation. The Nash–Sutcliff coefficient for slow flow was 0·72 during calibration and 0·61 during validation. Analysis of high and low flows indicated that the model is unbiased. A sensitivity analysis revealed that for the modelling of the daily total flow, accurate estimation of all 10 calibration parameters in the SWAT model is justified, while for the slow flow processes only 4 out of the set of 10 parameters were identified as most sensitive. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Isotope hydrological study of mean transit time in the granitic Strengbach catchment (Vosges massif,France): application of the FlowPC model with modified input function

Measurements of ¹⁸O concentrations in precipitation, soil solution, spring and runoff are used to determine water transit time in the small granitic Strengbach catchment (0·8 km²; 883–1146 m above sea level) located in the Vosges Mountains of northeastern France. Water transit times were calculated by applying the exponential, exponential piston and dispersion models of the FlowPC program to isotopic input (rainfall) and output (spring and stream water) data sets during the period 1989–95. The input function of the model was modified compared with the former version of the model and estimated by a deterministic approach based on a simplified hydrological balance. The fit between observed and calculated output data showed marked improvements compared with results obtained using the initial version of the model. An exponential piston version of the model applied to spring water indicates a 38·5 month mean transit time, which suggests that the volume in the aquifer, expressed in water depth, is 2·4 m. A considerable thickness (>45 m) of fractured bedrock may be involved for such a volume of water to be stored in the aquifer. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated alpine catchment in the Himalayan region using the J2000 hydrological model

This paper provides the results of hydrological modelling in a mesoscale glaciated alpine catchment of the Himalayan region. In the context of global climate change, the hydrological regime of an alpine mountain is likely to be affected, which might produce serious implications for downstream water availability. The main objective of this study was to understand the hydrological system dynamics of a glaciated catchment, the Dudh Kosi River basin, in Nepal, using the J2000 hydrological model and thereby understand how the rise in air temperature will affect the hydrological processes. The model is able to reproduce the overall hydrological dynamics quite well with an efficiency result of Nash–Sutcliffe (0.85), logarithm Nash–Sutcliffe (0.93) and coefficient of determination (0.85) for the study period. The average contribution from glacier areas to total streamflow is estimated to be 17%, and snowmelt (other than from glacier areas) accounts for another 17%. This indicates the significance of the snow and glacier runoff in the Himalayan region. The hypothetical rise in temperature scenarios at a rate of +2 and +4 °C indicated that the snowmelt process might be largely affected. An increase in snowmelt volume is noted during the premonsoon period, whereas the contribution during the monsoon season is significantly decreased. This occurs mainly because the rise in temperature will shift the snowline up to areas of higher altitude and thereby reduce the snow storage capacity of the basin. This indicates that the region is particularly vulnerable to global climate change and the associated risk of decreasing water availability to downstream areas. Under the assumed warming scenarios, it is likely that in the future, the river might shift from a ‘melt‐dominated river’ to a ‘rain‐dominated river’. The J2000 model should be considered a promising tool to better understand the hydrological dynamics in alpine mountain catchments of the Himalayan region. This understanding will be quite useful for further analysis of ‘what‐if scenarios’ in the context of global climate and land‐use changes and ultimately for sustainable Integrated Water Resources Management in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Transferability of hydrological model parameter spaces in the estimation of runoff in ungauged catchments

Abstract

In this study, transferability options of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) hydrological model parameter (MP) spaces were investigated to estimate ungauged catchment runoff. Three approaches were applied in the study: MP space transfer from single, neighbouring and all potential donor catchments. The model performance was evaluated by a jackknife procedure, where one catchment at a time was treated as if ungauged, and behavioural MP sets from candidate donor catchments were used to estimate the “ungauged” runoff. The results showed that ungauged catchment runoff estimation could not be guaranteed by transferring MP sets from a single physiographically nearest donor catchment. Integrating MP sets typically from one to six donor catchments supplemented the lack of effective MP sets and improved the model performance at the ungauged catchments. In addition, the analysis results revealed that the model performance converged to an average performance when the MP sets of all potential donor catchments were integrated.     

Modelling and assessment of hydrological changes in a developing urban catchment

Urbanization strongly changes natural catchment by increasing impervious coverage and by creating a need for efficient drainage systems. Such land cover changes lead to more rapid hydrological response to storms and change distribution of peak and low flows. This study aims to explore and assess how gradual hydrological changes occur during urban development from rural area to a medium‐density residential catchment. The Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) is utilized to simulate a series of scenarios in a same developing urban catchment. Sub‐hourly hydro‐meteorological data in warm season is used to calibrate and validate the model in the fully developed catchment in 2006. The validated model is then applied to other cases in development stage and runoff management scenarios. Based on the simulations and observations, three key problems are solved: (1) how catchment hydrology changes with land cover change, (2) how urban development changes pre‐development flows, and (3) how stormwater management techniques affect catchment hydrology. The results show that the low‐frequency flow rates had remarkably increased from 2004 to 2006 along with the increase of impervious areas. Urbanization in the residential catchment expands the runoff contributing area, accelerates hydrological response, raises peak flows in an order of magnitude of over 10, and more than doubles the total runoff volume. The effects of several LID controls on runoff hydrograph were simulated, and the techniques were able to reduce flows towards the pre‐development levels. However, the partly restored flow regime was still clearly changed in comparison to the pre‐development flow conditions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Natural flood management,land use and climate change trade-offs: the case of Tarland catchment,Scotland

A distributed hydrological model (WaSiM-ETH) was applied to a mesoscale catchment to investigate natural flood management as a nonstructural approach to tackle flood risks from climate change. Peak flows were modelled using climate projections (UKCP09) combined with afforestation-based land-use change options. A significant increase in peak flows was modelled from climate change. Afforestation could reduce some of the increased flow, with greatest benefit from coniferous afforestation, especially replacing lowland farmland. Nevertheless, large-scale woodland expansion was required to maintain peak flows similar to present and beneficial effects were significantly reduced for larger “winter-type” extreme floods. Afforestation was also modelled to increase low-flow risks. Land-use scenarios showed catchment-scale trade-offs across multiple objectives meant “optimal” flood risk solutions were unlikely, especially for afforestation replacing lowland farmland. Hence, combined structural/nonstructural measures may be required in such situations, with integrated catchment management to synergize multiple objectives.     

A hillslope-based hydrological model using catchment area and width functions

Abstract

A flow-interval hillslope discretization scheme is proposed for catchment hydrological modelling. By this scheme, a two-dimensional catchment is simplified into a one-dimensional cascade of flow intervals linked by the main stream. Each flow interval comprises a set of parallel hillslopes. The hillslope is the fundamental computational unit in the hydrological model providing lateral inflow to the main stream. The size of hillslope is determined by the catchment area and width functions. Catchment runoff is the total of hillslope responses through the river routing. Tests in four Japanese catchments showed that the model performed well on simulating the overall water balance, general flow pattern, and daily and hourly hydrographs of a whole catchment, as well as simultaneous simulation in different subcatchments. Characteristics of catchment hydrological responses and model applicability are discussed.     

Development and application of a distributed catchment-scale hydrological model for the River Ythan,NE Scotland

Mathematical models are being used to develop a decision support system for integrated management of the Ythan catchment in NE Scotland. One component of this has involved the development of a distributed catchment-scale hydrological model. The model is based on subsurface flow routing and calculates the contribution to stream flow from each 50 m×50 m cell in the 548 km² catchment. It uses two topographic parameters, slope and distance to stream following the main line of flow, and five physical parameters. The topographic analysis and distributed flow accumulation are performed by linking the single cell model with a geographic information system. Preliminary results from a three-year simulation of daily flows indicate that the model successfully predicts the main characteristics of the catchment flow. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exploiting the use of physical information for the calibration of a lumped hydrological model

In hydrological modelling, the challenge is to identify an optimal strategy to exploit tools and available observations in order to enhance model reliability. The increasing availability of data promotes the use of new calibration techniques able to make use of additional information on river basins. In the present study, a lumped hydrological model—designed with the aim of utilizing remotely sensed data—is introduced and calibrated, adopting four different schemes that adopt, to varying extents, available physical information. The physically consistent conceptualization of the hydrological model used allowed development of a step by step calibration based on a combination of information, such as remotely sensed data describing snow cover, recession curves obtained from streamflow measurements, and time series of surface run‐off obtained with a baseflow mathematical filter applied to the streamflow time‐series. Results suggest that the use of physical information in the calibration procedure tends to increase model reliability with respect to approaches where the parameters are calibrated using an overall statistic based, considerably or exclusively, on streamflow data.     

Exploring effects of rainfall intensity and duration on soil erosion at the catchment scale using openLISEM: Prado catchment,SE Spain

In semi‐arid areas, high‐intensity rainfall events are often held responsible for the main part of soil erosion. Long‐term landscape evolution models usually use average annual rainfall as input, making the evaluation of single events impossible. Event‐based soil erosion models are better suited for this purpose but cannot be used to simulate longer timescales and are usually applied to plots or small catchments. In this study, the openLISEM event‐based erosion model was applied to the medium‐sized (～50 km²) Prado catchment in SE Spain. Our aim was to (i) test the model's performance for medium‐sized catchments, (ii) test the ability to simulate four selected typical Mediterranean rainfall events of different magnitude and (iii) explore the relative contribution of these different storms to soil erosion using scenarios of future climate variability. Results show that because of large differences in the hydrologic response between storms of different magnitudes, each event needed to be calibrated separately. The relation between rainfall event characteristics and the calibration factors might help in determining optimal calibration values if event characteristics are known. Calibration of the model features some drawbacks for large catchments due to spatial variability in K_sat values. Scenario calculations show that although ～50% of soil erosion occurs as a result of high frequency, low‐intensity rainfall events, large‐magnitude, low‐frequency events potentially contribute significantly to total soil erosion. The results illustrate the need to incorporate temporal variability in rainfall magnitude–frequency distributions in landscape evolution models. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying hydrological budgets and pathways in a small upland catchment using a combined modelling and tracer approach

Hydrological budgets and flow pathways have been quantified for a small upland catchment (1.76 km²) in the northeast of Scotland. Water balance calculations for four subcatchments identified spatial variability within the catchment, with an estimated runoff enhancement of up to 25% for the upper western area, compared with the rest of the catchment. Data from spatial hydrochemical sampling, over a range of flow conditions, were used to identify the principal hillslope runoff mechanisms within the catchment. A hydrochemical mixing analysis revealed that runoff emerging from springs in various locations of the hillslope accounted for a significant proportion of flow in the streams, even during storm events. A hydrological model of the catchment was calibrated using the calculated stream flows for four locations, together with results from the mixing analysis for different time points. The calibrated model was used to predict the temporal variability in contributions to stream flow from the hillslope springs and soil water flows. The overall split ranged from 57%:43% spring water:soil water in the upper eastern subcatchment, to 76%:24% in the upper western subcatchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing effects of model complexity and structure on predictions of hydrological responses using serial and parallel model design

By utilizing functional relationships based on observations at plot or field scales, water quality models first compute surface runoff and then use it as the primary governing variable to estimate sediment and nutrient transport. When these models are applied at watershed scales, this serial model structure, coupling a surface runoff sub-model with a water quality sub-model, may be inappropriate because dominant hydrological processes differ among scales. A parallel modeling approach is proposed to evaluate how best to combine dominant hydrological processes for predicting water quality at watershed scales. In the parallel scheme, dominant variables of water quality models are identified based entirely on their statistical significance using time series analysis. Four surface runoff models of different model complexity were assessed using both the serial and parallel approaches to quantify the uncertainty on forcing variables used to predict water quality. The eight alternative model structures were tested against a 25-year high-resolution data set of streamflow, suspended sediment discharge, and phosphorous discharge at weekly time steps. Models using the parallel approach consistently performed better than serial-based models, by having less error in predictions of watershed scale streamflow, sediment and phosphorus, which suggests model structures of water quantity and quality models at watershed scales should be reformulated by incorporating the dominant variables. The implication is that hydrological models should be constructed in a way that avoids stacking one sub-model with one set of scale assumptions onto the front end of another sub-model with a different set of scale assumptions.     

A simple rainfall–runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south‐east Spain)

A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall–runoff relationship of the 202 km² Teba river catchment, located in semi‐arid south‐eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976–1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years. The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes. The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum. Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological responses to conservation practices in a catchment of the Loess Plateau,China

Since the late 1950s a series of soil conservation practices have been implemented in the Loess Plateau. It is important to assess the impact of these practices on hydrology at the catchment scale. The Jialuhe River catchment, a tributary of the Yellow River, with a drainage area of 1117 km² in the Loess Plateau, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to conservation practices. Parametric and non‐parametric Mann–Kendall tests were utilized to detect trends in hydrological variables or their residuals. Relationships between precipitation and hydrological variables were developed to remove the impact of precipitation variability. Significant linear decreasing trends in annual surface runoff and baseflow were identified during the treated period from 1967 to 1989, and the rate of reduction was 1·30 and 0·48 mm/year, respectively. As result, mean annual surface runoff and baseflow decreased by 32% over the period of 1967 to 1989. Seasonal runoff also decreased during the treated period with the greatest reduction occurring in summer and the smallest reduction in winter. The response of high and low daily flow to conservation practices was greater than average flows. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.