Evaluating Bayesian Radiocarbon-dated Event Count (REC) models for the study of long-term human and environmental processes

Chronological uncertainty complicates attempts to use radiocarbon dates as proxies for processes such as human population growth/decline, forest fires and marine ingression. Established approaches involve turning databases of radiocarbon-date densities into single summary proxies that cannot fully account for chronological uncertainty. Here, I use simulated data to explore an alternative Bayesian approach that instead models the data as what they are, namely radiocarbon-dated event counts. The approach involves assessing possible event-count sequences by sampling radiocarbon date densities and then applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the parameters of an appropriate count-based regression model. The regressions based on individual sampled sequences were placed in a multilevel framework, which allowed for the estimation of hyperparameters that account for chronological uncertainty in individual event times. Two processes were used to produce simulated data. One represented a simple monotonic change in event-counts and the other was based on a real palaeoclimate proxy record. In both cases, the method produced estimates that had the correct sign and were consistently biased towards zero. These results indicate that the approach is widely applicable and could form the basis of a new class of quantitative models for use in exploring long-term human and environmental processes.     

Building and testing age models for radiocarbon dates in Lateglacial and Early Holocene sediments

The growing importance of understanding past abrupt climate variability at a regional and global scale has led to the realisation that independent chronologies of past environmental change need to be compared between various archives. This has in turn led to attempts at significant improvements in the required precision at which records can be dated. Radiocarbon dating is still the most prominent method for dating organic material from terrestrial and marine archives, and as such many of the recent developments in improving precision have been aimed at this technique. These include: (1) selection of the most suitable datable fractions within a record, (2) the development of better calibration curves, and (3) more precise age modelling techniques. While much attention has been focussed on the first two items, testing the possibilities of the relatively new age modelling approaches has not received much attention. Here, we test the potential for methods designed to significantly improve precision in radiocarbon-based age models, wiggle match dating and various forms of Bayesian analyses. We demonstrate that while all of the methods can perform very well, in some scenarios, caution must be taken when applying them. It appears that an integrated approach is required in real life dating situations where more than one model is applied, with strict error calculation, and with the integration of radiocarbon data with sedimentological analyses of site formation processes.     

Contributions and unrealized potential contributions of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating to glacier chronology, 1990–2010

This paper reviews the application of cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating to glacier chronology. Exposure dating of glacial landforms has made an outsize impact on this field because the technique filled an obvious need that had already been recognized by glacial geologists. By now, hundreds of studies have used cosmogenic-nuclide exposure dating to date glacial deposits, and in fact it is rare to find a study of glacial geology or glacier chronology, or any paleoclimate synthesis that makes use of such studies, that does not involve exposure dating. These developments have resulted in major contributions to glacier chronology and paleoclimate, in particular i) reconstructing Antarctic ice sheet change, ii) establishing the chronology of late Pleistocene and Holocene glacier change in mountain regions where it was previously unknown; iii) establishing the broad chronological outlines of mountain glaciations prior to the Last Glacial Maximum; and iv) gaining insight into subglacial erosional processes through the observation that many glaciated surfaces preserve cosmogenic-nuclide inventories from long past ice-free periods as well as the present one. An important potential future contribution will be the application of the large data set of exposure-dated glacier chronologies to better understand global and regional climate dynamics during Lateglacial and Holocene millennial-scale climate changes. However, this contribution cannot be realized without significant progress in two areas: i) understanding and accounting for geologic processes that cause apparent exposure ages on glacial landforms to differ from the true age of the landform, and ii) minimizing systematic uncertainties in exposure ages that stem from cosmogenic-nuclide production-rate estimates and scaling schemes. At present there exists an enormous data set of exposure ages on glacial deposits, but these data cannot be used to their full potential in paleoclimate syntheses due to an inadequate understanding of geologic scatter and production-rate uncertainties. The intent of this paper is to highlight this situation and suggest some strategies for realizing this potential.     

Luminescence dating of lacustrine sediments from Tangra Yumco (southern Tibetan Plateau) using post‐IR IRSL signals from polymineral grains

Radiocarbon dating of bulk organic matter is the most commonly used method for establishing chronologies of lake sediments for palaeoclimate reconstructions on the Tibetan Plateau. However, this method is likely to be problematic because the dated material often suffers from old carbon contamination. Recently, advances in luminescence‐based chronological techniques have provided new options for dating lacustrine sediments. In the current study, we tested for the first time the applicability of a new post‐IR IRSL (pIRIR) measurement protocol for dating fine‐grained polymineral material from a deep‐lake sediment core from the central part of Tangra Yumco, on the southern Tibetan Plateau. Our results show that: (i) radioactive disequilibria in the uranium decay chain were observed in the studied lake sediments, and thus taken into account for dose rate calculation by using a dynamic modelling approach; (ii) the suitability and robustness of the pIRIR protocol measured at 150°C (pIRIR₁₅₀) for our samples are confirmed by a set of luminescence characteristic tests as well as the agreement with an independent age control; (iii) turbidite deposition partly caused an insufficient resetting of luminescence signals and thus apparent overestimation in luminescence dating; (iv) compared with the luminescence‐based age‐depth model, the ¹⁴C ages of bulk organic matter from the studied core generally yielded an age difference of ～2 ka, which is attributed to hardwater reservoir effects in Tangra Yumco. This study highlights the need for multi‐dating approaches of lake sedimentary archives on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Geomorphic evidence for Holocene glacial advances and sea level fluctuations on eastern Vestfirðir, northwest Iceland

New geomorphic and chronological data of Holocene advances of the Drangajökull Ice Cap, located on eastern Vestfirðir, northwest Iceland, are presented. At least two glacial advances and two transgressions during the Holocene are interpreted from moraines and raised beach deposits, respectively. Geomorphic evidence is concentrated in the three valleys adjacent to the modern outlet glaciers of the Drangajökull Ice Cap: Kaldalónsjökull, Leirufjarðarjökull, and Reykjarfjarðarjökull. The valley surrounding Kaldalónsjökull contains a vegetated Holocene moraine with a minimum radiocarbon age of ∼2600 cal. yr BP, which provides geomorphic evidence for Neoglacial activity on eastern Vestfirðir. The second extensive Holocene glacial advance on eastern Vestfirðir occurred during the Little Ice Age, and moraines associated with this advance are present in all three outlet glacier valleys. The Neoglacial advance is the most extensive ice advance on eastern Vestfirðir. Raised beaches parallel to the coastlines of Ísafjarðardjúp and Jökulfirðir, at an elevation of approximately 5 m a.s.l., suggest a minor transgression at ∼3000 cal. yr BP based on radiocarbon ages of shells. A minor transgression of 0.3–0.5 m a.s.l. is associated with the timing of the Little Ice Age advance. Correlation of geomorphic events with sediment proxy records facilitates distinguishing local perturbations from regional North Atlantic climate signals. This study supports regional interpretations of climatic instability during the Holocene.     

Sensitivity of the Eastern Mediterranean geomorphic system towards environmental change during the Late Holocene: a chronological perspective

Alluvial and colluvial sediment deposition provide a vital record of environmental change during the Holocene. Firm chronological control on these archives is necessary to enable us to relate sediment dynamics to human activity and climate variability. In the Eastern Mediterranean, such relationships are hard to establish due to the lack of spatially well‐distributed sediment archives with good chronological control. This scarcity is problematic with respect to regional‐scale reconstructions of the temporal variation of sediment dynamics. Here, we present a radiocarbon database (n = 178) of geomorphological activity collected from multiple distinct sediment archives within the territory of Sagalassos in south‐western Turkey. The data were grouped according to their sedimentary facies for analysis using cumulative probability distributions (CPDs) and sedimentation rate (SR) modelling. Two small‐scale colluvial valleys, where chronological information was abundant, were investigated in more detail. Results show that sedimentation chronology differs between individual, nearby cores, as it depends strongly on the local geomorphic situation. A generalizing approach combining multiple core results yields more widely valid conclusions. High sedimentation rates coincided with the initial major anthropogenic disturbance of the landscape and decreased afterwards, probably due to hillslope soil depletion. CPD and SR analysis indicates that in general colluvial sedimentation rates did not change much from 2000 BC onwards. River floodplain sedimentation, in contrast, increased markedly during the first millennium BC and during recent times, and a significant time lag in enhanced sediment deposition between the upper and lower reaches of the river valleys was observed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展

系列^14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究已成为当前^14C年代学中一个热点,系统综述了时序已知、时序间隔已知和时序间隔近似已知系列^14C样品日历年龄校正研究的历史、原理、计算方法及其在树轮、泥炭、地层等领域上应用进展,对影响系列样品贝叶斯分析获得^14C日历年龄区间的主要因素以及未来发展方向作了归纳。大量事例研究结果表明系列样品贝叶斯分析的实质在于贝叶斯方法从统计的角度灵活地把地层信息以概率方式加入到^14C日历年龄校正过程中,获得比单个^14C年代校正精度更高的日历年龄。     

系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究进展

系列14C样品贝叶斯法日历年龄校正研究已成为当前14C年代学中一个热点,系统综述了时序已知、时序间隔已知和时序间隔近似已知系列14C样品日历年龄校正研究的历史、原理、计算方法及其在树轮、泥炭、地层等领域上应用进展,对影响系列样品贝叶斯分析获得14C日历年龄区间的主要因素以及未来发展方向作了归纳.大量事例研究结果表明系列样品贝叶斯分析的实质在于贝叶斯方法从统计的角度灵活地把地层信息以概率方式加入到14C日历年龄校正过程中,获得比单个14C年代校正精度更高的日历年龄.     

Bayesian methods applied to the interpretation of multiple OSL dates: high precision sediment ages from Old Scatness Broch excavations,Shetland Isles

In this paper, we illustrate the ways in which Bayesian statistical techniques may be used to enhance chronological resolution when applied to a series of OSL sediment dates. Such application can achieve an optimal chronological model by incorporating stratigraphic and age information. The application to luminescence data is not straightforward owing to the sources of uncertainty in each date, and here we present one solution to overcoming these difficulties, and introduce the concept of “unshared systematic” errors. Using OSL sediment dates from the site of Old Scatness Broch, Shetland Isles, UK, many measured with a high degree of precision, we illustrate some of the ways in which Bayesian techniques may be applied, as a tool for assessing systematic errors when combined with independent chronological information, and to determine the optimum chronological information for specific events and contexts. We provide a detailed procedure for the application of Bayesian methods to OSL dates using the widely available radiocarbon calibration programme OxCal.     

Earthworm Calcite Granule —A New Proxy for Paleoenvironmental Reconstruction

Earthworm calcite granules (ECG), generally produced in Morren's glands of the earthworm Lumbricus terrestris and Lumbricus rubellus, are commonly preserved in Quaternary soils and sediments well. These granules can not only provide radio-carbon dating (Carbon-14) with the efficacious materials, but accurately record a wealth of climatic and environmental information on temperature and precipitation. For instance, researchers from France reconstructed the paleotemperature and paleoprecipitation during the last glacial in west part of Europe by taking advantage of δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C signal contained in ECG. Additionally, scientists from Germany and France carried out radiocarbon dating of ECG from two different loess-paleosol sequences, and the results showed consistency with the dating results of other materials (such as charcoal, bone, plant calcified root cells, etc.). Therefore, this new bio-indicator has been confirmed as a proxy for paleoenvironmental and paleoclimatic reconstruction, hopefully becoming the golden key to understanding the paleoclimate change. This paper, based on the previous literatures, reviewed the present research status of ECG in paleoclimatology, mainly consisting of five aspects: (i) ECGs' production mechanism and their characteristics; (ii) The theoretical foundation of stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in terrestrial fossil earthworm calcite granules for paleoclimatic reconstruction; (iii) The pre-treatment of ECG samples; (iv) Current applications in chronology and paleoclimatology of earthworm calcite granules;(v) Major problems at present regarding paleoclimatic explanation and radiocarbon-14 dating of ECG. Finally, we proposed the future research and development direction in this field, which is expected to make a reference to the future researches.     

New radiometric and geomorphologic evidences of a last glacial maximum older than 18 ka in SW European mountains: the example of Redes Natural Park (Cantabrian Mountains,NW Spain)

Abstract

The first numerical age determinations from radiocarbon dating establish the chronology of glacial events in Redes Natural Park (Cantabrian Mountain, NW Spain). A core drilled in an ice-dammed deposit provided a minimum age of 28 990 ± 230 years BP for the maximum glacial expansion (phase I). Another core from a cirque bottom-fill provided organic sediment with 20 640 ± 300 years BP, a minimum age for the first glacial retreat (phase II). Radiometric dating of proglacial deposits interpreted as synchronous with the last glacial maximum phase in neighbouring Cornelia basin (Picos de Europa), yield ages of 40 480 ± 820 years BP. The chronological data presented in this work are consistent with the model of glacier evolution established in the Pyrénées, with a glacial maximum phase for the last glacial period older than 18 ka. © 2002 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS. AU rights reserved.     

Late Pleistocene raised beaches of coastal Estremadura,central Portugal

We present new stratigraphic, sedimentological, and chronological data for a suite of tectonically raised beaches dating to Marine Isotope Stages 5, 4, and 3 along the Estremadura coast of west-central Portugal. The beach deposits are found in association with ancient tidal channels and coastal dunes, pollen bearing mud and peat, and Middle Paleolithic archaeological sites that confirm occupation of the coastal zone by Neanderthal populations. The significance of these deposits is discussed in terms of the archaeological record, the tectonic and geomorphic evolution of the coast, and correlation with reconstructions of global climate and eustatic sea-level change. Direct correlation between the Estremadura beach sections is complicated by the tectonic complexity of the area and the age of the beach deposits (which are near or beyond the limit of radiocarbon dating). Evidence from multiple sites dated by AMS radiocarbon and optical luminescence methods suggests broad synchroneity in relative sea-level changes along this coast during Marine Isotope Stage 3. Two beach complexes with luminescence and radiocarbon age control date to about 35 ka and 42 ka, recording a rise in relative sea level around the time of Heinrich Event 4 at 39 ka. Depending on assumptions about eustatic sea level at the time they were deposited, we estimate that these beaches have been uplifted at rates of 0.4–4.3 mm yr^?1 by the combined effects of tectonic, halokinetic, and isostatic processes. Uplift rates of 1–2 mm yr^?1 are likely if the beaches represent sea level stands at roughly 40 m below modern, as suggested by recent eustatic sea level reconstructions. Evidence from coastal bluffs and the interior of the study area indicates extensive colluvial, fluvial, and aeolian sedimentation beginning around 31 ka and continuing into the Holocene. These geomorphic adjustments are related to concomitant changes in climate and sea level, providing context that improves our understanding of Late Pleistocene landscape change and human occupation on the western Iberian margin.     

Development of spatially diverse and complex dune-field patterns: Gran Desierto Dune Field, Sonora, Mexico

The pattern of dunes within the Gran Desierto of Sonora, Mexico, is both spatially diverse and complex. Identification of the pattern components from remote‐sensing images, combined with statistical analysis of their measured parameters demonstrate that the composite pattern consists of separate populations of simple dune patterns. Age‐bracketing by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) indicates that the simple patterns represent relatively short‐lived aeolian constructional events since ～25 ka. The simple dune patterns consist of: (i) late Pleistocene relict linear dunes; (ii) degraded crescentic dunes formed at ～12 ka; (iii) early Holocene western crescentic dunes; (iv) eastern crescentic dunes emplaced at ～7 ka; and (v) star dunes formed during the last 3 ka. Recognition of the simple patterns and their ages allows for the geomorphic backstripping of the composite pattern. Palaeowind reconstructions, based upon the rule of gross bedform‐normal transport, are largely in agreement with regional proxy data. The sediment state over time for the Gran Desierto is one in which the sediment supply for aeolian constructional events is derived from previously stored sediment (Ancestral Colorado River sediment), and contemporaneous influx from the lower Colorado River valley and coastal influx from the Bahia del Adair inlet. Aeolian constructional events are triggered by climatic shifts to greater aridity, changes in the wind regime, and the development of a sediment supply. The rate of geomorphic change within the Gran Desierto is significantly greater than the rate of subsidence and burial of the accumulation surface upon which it rests.     

Geomorphological and sedimentary evidence for late Pleistocene to Holocene hydrological change along the Río Mamoré, Bolivian Amazon

Aerial photography and satellite imagery reveal manifold geomorphological evidence of a dynamic evolution of past and present rivers in the Bolivian Amazon. Comparison of oxbow lake and meander scar dimensions along an inactive meander belt of the Río Mamoré (Llanos de Moxos, north-eastern Bolivia) and its modern counterpart suggests significant regional paleohydrological variability. We used these features as geomorphological and sedimentary archives to enhance our understanding of longer-term variations of the fluvial system. Late Pleistocene to Holocene hydrological changes of the Río Mamoré are inferred from: (i) the analysis of satellite imagery, (ii) discharge estimates from meander morphology, (iii) stratigraphic, and (iv) chronological information based on luminescence and radiocarbon dating. The combined data from three oxbows indicate that the now abandoned meander belt – the paleo-Mamoré – continued to be active at least until ∼5 ka, and likely even postdating 3 ka. An up to threefold increase in discharge is estimated for the modern Río Mamoré versus the paleo-Mamoré. The altered runoff regime may have triggered an avulsive shift towards the currently active Río Mamoré. The preceding increase in discharge in turn, was possibly related to a shift in climatic conditions, which changed markedly between the mid- and late Holocene in tropical South America. In addition, it may have been the indirect result of capturing the avulsive Río Grande system to the east of the Río Mamoré. Alternative explanations for the differences in dimensions of the paleo versus the modern Río Mamoré, i.e. contemporaneous activity of both rivers or alteration of site factors such as the channel/floodplain relationship, are considered to be unlikely.     

New radiometric and geomorphologic evidences of a last glacial maximum older than 18 ka in SW European mountains: the example of Redes Natural Park (Cantabrian Mountains,NW Spain)

The first numerical age determinations from radiocarbon dating establish the chronology of glacial events in Redes Natural Park (Cantabrian Mountain, NW Spain). A core drilled in an ice-dammed deposit provided a minimum age of 28 990 ± 230 years BP for the maximum glacial expansion (phase I). Another core from a cirque bottom-fill provided organic sediment with 20 640 ± 300 years BP, a minimum age for the first glacial retreat (phase II). Radiometric dating of proglacial deposits interpreted as synchronous with the last glacial maximum phase in neighbouring Comella basin (Picos de Europa), yield ages of 40 480 ± 820 years BP. The chronological data presented in this work are consistent with the model of glacier evolution established in the Pyrénées, with a glacial maximum phase for the last glacial period older than 18 ka.     

Holocene reactivations of catastrophic complex flow-like landslides in the Flysch Carpathians (Czech Republic/Slovakia)

Complex flow-like landslides (CFLLs) are important geomorphic agents of Late Quaternary mountain evolution in the Flysch Belt of the Outer Western Carpathians. The CFLLs are characterised by the upper section of deep-seated, retrogressive landslide of structurally unfavourably oriented rocks and lower sections composed of earthflows originated due to liquefaction of material accumulated from the upper slopes. Radiocarbon dating of organic matter incorporated into landslide debris or related deposits suggests that most of the CFLLs collapsed repeatedly throughout the Holocene with typical recurrence intervals of approximately 1–2 ka. Catastrophic landslides that occurred during extreme hydrometeorological events in recent decades displayed evidence of Holocene activity. Most of the CFLLs dammed and steepened adjacent valleys. Our chronological dataset is biased by erosion of older landforms, but most of the dated reactivations correlate to regional increases in humidity identified by previous paleoenvironmetal studies.     

Annually laminated sediments date the drainage of the Ancylus Lake and early Holocene shoreline displacement in central Finland

Three independent varve (annually laminated) chronologies, verified by paleomagnetic dating, were used in the present biostratigraphical study to investigate the history of the Baltic basin in central Finland. Diatom analyses of the studied sediment sequences show the transition from the Ancylus Lake taxa to small-lake diatoms at the isolation boundary. These three varved profiles provide the following data and information on early Holocene events in central Finland: (i) a shoreline displacement curve between the deglaciation at ca. 9000 BC and ca. 7000 BC, (ii) relative emergence of the land area between 116 and 96 m above the present day sea level, which proceeded at a rate of ca. 2.6 cm year⁻¹, (iii) the calendar year age for the Lake Ancylus at ca. 8250–8200 BC, and (iv) the calendar year age for the Betula/Pinus pollen zone boundary (ca. 8100 BC) and Alnus arrival (ca. 7100 BC).     

Chronologies of sedimentary changes in the south Bohai Sea,China: constraints from luminescence and radiocarbon dating

The alternation of terrestrial and marine deposits is an indicator of past environmental and sea‐level changes. The age of deposition is usually dated by means of radiocarbon. However, radiocarbon dates of molluscan shells from coastal areas may be complicated by various sources of carbon, and problematic for deposits of 40–50 ka or older. Herein, we apply the Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating method to date samples from terrestrial and marine/coastal sediments extracted from three cores in the south Bohai Sea, China. Multiple‐ and single‐aliquot regenerative‐dose procedures using OSL signals from fine‐silt (4–11 μm), coarse‐silt (38–63 μm) and fine‐sand (63–90 or 90–125 μm) quartz were employed to determine the equivalent dose (D _e). The results showed that: (i) OSL ages from quartz of different grain sizes and different protocols are consistent with each other; (ii) for Holocene samples, most of the radiocarbon dates agree well with OSL ages; (iii) for pre‐Holocene samples, radiocarbon dates cluster at 40–50 ¹⁴ C ka BP, whereas OSL ages are in stratigraphic order from 11 ka to 176 ka. Because of the self‐consistency of the quartz OSL ages, the stratigraphic agreement in the three cores, and the clustering of the radiocarbon dates, we suggest that the quartz OSL ages are more reliable with respect to dating the samples from the south Bohai Sea. Finally, the four marine strata identified in the south Bohai Sea are likely to have formed during the Holocene, Marine Isotopic Stage (MIS) 3–5, MIS 6 and probably MIS 7, respectively.     

Combined dendrochronological and radiocarbon dating of six Russian icons from the 15th–17th centuries

The results of dendrochronological and radiocarbon dating by means of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) of six medieval icons, originating from northern European Russia and painted on wooden panels made from Scots pine, dated to the 15th to 17th centuries are presented. The panels of each icon were studied using dendrochronology. Five to six AMS dates were obtained for four icons. Although five icons were dendro-dated successfully, one failed to be reliably cross-dated with the existing master tree-ring chronologies and it was dated by radiocarbon wiggle-matching. Dendrochronological dating and wiggle-matching of radiocarbon dates allowed us to determine the narrow chronological intervals of icon creation.

     

Problematic but promising ponds? Palaeoenvironmental evidence from the Norse Eastern Settlement of Greenland

Pollen‐ and related proxy‐based studies of human–environment interactions during the Norse and later periods within Greenland have primarily involved the investigation of peat, lake and soil deposits, all of which have taphonomic and sampling problems. Many small ponds exist, but they seem to have been relatively ignored in investigations of palaeoecologically based environmental history. To evaluate their usefulness for studies of ecologically related cultural history, especially where sites are in intimate association with the archaeology, a pond in the Norse Eastern Settlement has been examined to investigate three principal questions: (i) Does such a site contain a useful record of environmental history? (ii) Does it offer a record of sufficient resolution and sensitivity for the study of anthropogenic landscape impacts? (iii) Are there any apparent drawbacks to these sequences? Using data obtained from palynological, diatom, sedimentological and radiocarbon analyses, it is concluded that environmental data for each proxy – aside from ¹⁴C dating – are clearly capable of being explained in a reasonably straightforward and compatible manner and fulfil the hopes for the sampling medium. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.