Snow cover and runoff modelling in a high mountain catchment with scarce data: effects of temperature and precipitation parameters

Snowmelt is an important source of runoff in high mountain catchments. Snowmelt modelling for alpine regions remains challenging with scarce gauges. This study simulates the snowmelt in the Karuxung River catchment in the south Tibetan Plateau using an altitude zone based temperature‐index model, calibrates the snow cover area and runoff simulation during 2003–2005 and validates the model performance via snow cover area and runoff simulation in 2006. In the snowmelt and runoff modelling, temperature and precipitation are the two most important inputs. Relevant parameters, such as critical snow fall temperature, temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient, determine the form and amount of precipitation and distribution of temperature and precipitation in hydrological modelling of the sparsely gauged catchment. Sensitivity analyses show that accurate estimation of these parameters would greatly help in improving the snowmelt simulation accuracy, better describing the snow‐hydrological behaviours and dealing with the data scarcity at higher elevations. Specifically, correlation between the critical snow fall temperature and relative humidity and seasonal patterns of both the temperature lapse rate and the precipitation gradient should be considered in the modelling studies when precipitation form is not logged and meteorological observations are only available at low elevation. More accurate simulation of runoff involving snowmelt, glacier melt and rainfall runoff will improve our understanding of hydrological processes and help assess runoff impacts from a changing climate in high mountain catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the hydrological response of debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers to present climatic conditions in the semiarid Andes of central Chile

We apply the process‐based, distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH glacio‐hydrological model to a glacierized catchment (19% glacierized) in the semiarid Andes of central Chile. The semiarid Andes provides vital freshwater resources to valleys in Chile and Argentina, but only few glacio‐hydrological modelling studies have been conducted, and its dominant hydrological processes remain poorly understood. The catchment contains two debris‐free glaciers reaching down to 3900 m asl (Bello and Yeso glaciers) and one debris‐covered avalanche‐fed glacier reaching to 3200 m asl (Piramide Glacier). Our main objective is to compare the mass balance and runoff contributions of both glacier types under current climatic conditions. We use a unique dataset of field measurements collected over two ablation seasons combined with the distributed TOPKAPI‐ETH model that includes physically oriented parameterizations of snow and ice ablation, gravitational distribution of snow, snow albedo evolution and the ablation of debris‐covered ice. Model outputs indicate that while the mass balance of Bello and Yeso glaciers is mostly explained by temperature gradients, the Piramide Glacier mass balance is governed by debris thickness and avalanches and has a clear non‐linear profile with elevation as a result. Despite the thermal insulation effect of the debris cover, the mass balance and contribution to runoff from debris‐free and debris‐covered glaciers are similar in magnitude, mainly because of elevation differences. However, runoff contributions are distinct in time and seasonality with ice melt starting approximately four weeks earlier from the debris‐covered glacier, what is of relevance for water resources management. At the catchment scale, snowmelt is the dominant contributor to runoff during both years. However, during the driest year of our simulations, ice melt contributes 42 ± 8% and 67 ± 6% of the annual and summer runoff, respectively. Sensitivity analyses show that runoff is most sensitive to temperature and precipitation gradients, melt factors and debris cover thickness. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Role of temporal resolution of meteorological inputs for process‐based snow modelling

Accurate snow accumulation and melt simulations are crucial for understanding and predicting hydrological dynamics in mountainous settings. As snow models require temporally varying meteorological inputs, time resolution of these inputs is likely to play an important role on the model accuracy. Because meteorological data at a fine temporal resolution (~1 hr) are generally not available in many snow‐dominated settings, it is important to evaluate the role of meteorological inputs temporal resolution on the performance of process‐based snow models. The objective of this work is to assess the loss in model accuracy with temporal resolution of meteorological inputs, for a range of climatic conditions and topographic elevations. To this end, a process‐based snow model was run using 1‐, 3‐, and 6‐hourly inputs for wet, average, and dry years over Boise River Basin (6,963 km²), which spans rain dominated (≤1,400 m), rain–snow transition (>1,400 and ≤1,900 m), snow dominated below tree line (>1,900 and ≤2,400 m), and above tree line (>2,400 m) elevations. The results show that sensitivity of the model accuracy to the inputs time step generally decreases with increasing elevation from rain dominated to snow dominated above tree line. Using longer than hourly inputs causes substantial underestimation of snow cover area (SCA) and snow water equivalent (SWE) in rain‐dominated and rain–snow transition elevations, due to the precipitation phase mischaracterization. In snow‐dominated elevations, the melt rate is underestimated due to errors in estimation of net snow cover energy input. In addition, the errors in SCA and SWE estimates generally decrease toward years with low snow mass, that is, dry years. The results indicate significant increases in errors in estimates of SCA and SWE as the temporal resolution of meteorological inputs becomes coarser than an hour. However, use of 3‐hourly inputs can provide accurate estimates at snow‐dominated elevations. The study underscores the need to record meteorological variables at an hourly time step for accurate process‐based snow modelling.     

Estimating source regions for snowmelt runoff in a Rocky Mountain basin: tests of a data‐based conceptual modeling approach

In many mountain basins, river discharge measurements are located far away from runoff source areas. This study tests whether a basic snowmelt runoff conceptual model can be used to estimate relative contributions of different elevation zones to basin‐scale discharge in the Cache la Poudre, a snowmelt‐dominated Rocky Mountain river. Model tests evaluate scenarios that vary model configuration, input variables, and parameter values to determine how these factors affect discharge simulation and the distribution of runoff generation with elevation. Results show that the model simulates basin discharge well (NSCE and R >0.90) when input precipitation and temperature are distributed with different lapse rates, with a rain‐snow threshold parameter between 0 and 3.3 °C, and with a melt rate parameter between 2 and 4 mm °C^?1 d^?1 because these variables and parameters can have compensating interactions with each other and with the runoff coefficient parameter. Only the hydrograph recession parameter can be uniquely defined with this model structure. These non‐unique model scenarios with different configurations, input variables, and parameter values all indicate that the majority of basin discharge comes from elevations above 2900 m, or less than 25% of the basin total area, with a steep increase in runoff generation above 2600 m. However, the simulations produce unrealistically low runoff ratios for elevations above 3000 m, highlighting the need for additional measurements of snow and discharge at under‐sampled elevations to evaluate the accuracy of simulated snow and runoff patterns. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the spatial–temporal variability of spring snowmelt in an arctic catchment

Arctic spring landscapes are usually characterized by a mosaic of coexisting snow‐covered and bare ground patches. This phenomenon has major implications for hydrological processes, including meltwater production and runoff. Furthermore, as indicated by aircraft observations, it affects land‐surface–atmosphere exchanges, leading to a high degree of variability in surface energy terms during melt. The heterogeneity and related differences when certain parts of the landscape become snow free also affects the length of the growing season and the carbon cycle. Small‐scale variability in arctic snowmelt is addressed here by combining a spatially distributed end‐of‐winter snow cover with simulations of variable snowmelt energy balance factors for the small arctic catchment of Trail Valley Creek (63 km²). Throughout the winter, snow in arctic tundra basins is redistributed by frequent blowing snow events. Areas of above‐ or below‐average end‐of‐winter snow water equivalents were determined from land‐cover classifications, topography, land‐cover‐based snow surveys, and distributed surface wind‐field simulations. Topographic influences on major snowmelt energy balance factors (solar radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat) were modelled on a small‐scale (40 m) basis. A spatially variable complete snowmelt energy balance was subsequently computed and applied to the distributed snow cover, allowing the simulation of the progress of melt throughout the basin. The emerging patterns compared very well visually to snow cover observations from satellite images and aerial photographs. Results show the relative importance of variable end‐of‐winter snow cover, spatially distributed melt energy fluxes, and local advection processes for the development of a patchy snow cover. This illustrates that the consideration of these processes is crucial for an accurate determination of snow‐covered areas, as well as the location, timing, and amount of meltwater release from arctic catchments, and should, therefore, be included in hydrological models. Furthermore, the study shows the need for a subgrid parameterization of these factors in the land surface schemes of larger scale climate models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A modified monthly degree‐day model for evaluating glacier runoff changes in China. Part I: model development

The retreat of mountain glaciers and ice caps has dominated the rise in global sea level and is likely to remain an import component of eustatic sea‐level rise in the 21st century. Mountain glaciers are critical in supplying freshwater to populations inhabiting the valleys downstream who heavily rely on glacier runoff, such as arid and semi‐arid regions of western China. Owing to recent climate warming and the consequent rapid retreat of many glaciers, it is essential to evaluate the long‐term change in glacier melt water production, especially when considering the glacier area change. This paper describes the structure, principles and parameters of a modified monthly degree‐day model considering glacier area variation. Water balances in different elevation bands are calculated with full consideration of the monthly precipitation gradient and air temperature lapse rate. The degree‐day factors for ice and snow are tuned by comparing simulated variables to observation data for the same period, such as mass balance, equilibrium line altitude and glacier runoff depth. The glacier area–volume scaling factor is calibrated with the observed glacier area change monitored by remote sensing data of seven sub‐basins of the Tarim interior basin. Based on meteorological data, the glacier area, mass balance and runoff are estimated. The model can be used to evaluate the long‐term changes of melt water in all glacierized basins of western China, especially for those with limited observation data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Implications of decadal to century scale glacio‐hydrological change for water resources of the Hood River basin,OR, USA

In glacier‐fed rivers, melting of glacier ice sustains streamflow during the driest times of the year, especially during drought years. Anthropogenic and ecologic systems that rely on this glacial buffering of low flows are vulnerable to glacier recession as temperatures rise. We demonstrate the evolution of glacier melt contribution in watershed hydrology over the course of a 184‐year period from 1916 to 2099 through the application of a coupled hydrological and glacier dynamics model to the Hood River basin in Northwest Oregon, USA. We performed continuous simulations of glaciological processes (mass accumulation and ablation, lateral flow of ice and heat conduction through supra‐glacial debris), which are directly linked with seasonal snow dynamics as well as other key hydrologic processes (e.g. evapotranspiration and subsurface flow). Our simulations show that historically, the contribution of glacier melt to basin water supply was up to 79% at upland water management locations. We also show that supraglacial debris cover on the Hood River glaciers modulates the rate of glacier recession and progression of dry season flow at upland stream locations with debris‐covered glaciers. Our model results indicate that dry season (July to September) discharge sourced from glacier melt started to decline early in the 21st century following glacier recession that started early in the 20th century. Changes in climate over the course of the current century will lead to 14–63% (18–78%) reductions in dry season discharge across the basin for IPCC emission pathway RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). The largest losses will be at upland drainage locations of water diversions that were dominated historically by glacier melt and seasonal snowmelt. The contribution of glacier melt varies greatly not only in space but also in time. It displays a strong decadal scale fluctuations that are super‐imposed on the effects of a long‐term climatic warming trend. This decadal variability results in reversals in trends in glacier melt, which underscore the importance of long‐time series of glacio‐hydrologic analyses for evaluating the hydrological response to glacier recession. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The importance of aspect for modelling the hydrological response in a glacier catchment in Central Asia

Understanding how explicit consideration of topographic information influences hydrological model performance and upscaling in glacier dominated catchments remains underexplored. In this study, the Urumqi glacier no. 1 catchment in northwest China, with 52% of the area covered by glaciers, was selected as study site. A conceptual glacier‐hydrological model was developed and tested to systematically, simultaneously, and robustly reproduce the hydrograph, separate the discharge into contributions from glacier and nonglacier parts of the catchment, and establish estimates of the annual glacier mass balance, the annual equilibrium line altitude, and the daily catchment snow water equivalent. This was done by extending and adapting a recently proposed landscape‐based semidistributed conceptual hydrological model (FLEX‐Topo) to represent glacier and snowmelt processes. The adapted model, FLEX^G, allows to explicitly account for the influence of topography, that is, elevation and aspect, on the distribution of temperature and precipitation and thus on melt dynamics. It is shown that the model can not only reproduce long‐term runoff observations but also variations in glacier and snow cover. Furthermore, FLEX^G was successfully transferred and up‐scaled to a larger catchment exclusively by adjusting the areal proportions of elevation and aspect without the need for further calibration. This underlines the value of topographic information to meaningfully represent the dominant hydrological processes in the region and is further exacerbated by comparing the model to a model formulation that does not account for differences in aspect (FLEX^G,nA) and which, in spite of satisfactorily reproducing the observed hydrograph, does not capture the influence of spatial variability of snow and ice, which as a consequence reduces model transferability. This highlights the importance of accounting for topography and landscape heterogeneity in conceptual hydrological models in mountainous and snow‐, and glacier‐dominated regions.     

Glacier mass balance simulation using SWAT distributed snow algorithm

Application of a temperature-index melt model incorporated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is presented to simulate mass balance (MB) and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) of three glaciers. The snow accumulation/melt parameters were adjusted to glacierized and free glacier areas, respectively. The SWAT snow algorithm enabled us to consider spatial variation of snow parameters by elevation bands across the sub-basins, while in the previous studies using SWAT, the related parameters were constant for an entire basin. The results show slight improvement in runoff simulation and significant improvement in simulated MB when considering ELA in model calibration. The results showed that SWAT can be applied to simulate MB, vertical MB distribution and annual ELA, with light calibration efforts for data-scarce catchments. The accuracy of the results depends on the modelled area of ablation zone from which most of the meltwater is released.     

Understanding hydrological processes in glacierized catchments: Evidence and implications of highly variable isotopic and electrical conductivity data

The spatial and temporal characterization of geochemical tracers over Alpine glacierized catchments is particularly difficult, but fundamental to quantify groundwater, glacier melt, and rain water contribution to stream runoff. In this study, we analysed the spatial and temporal variability of δ²H and electrical conductivity (EC) in various water sources during three ablation seasons in an 8.4‐km² glacierized catchment in the Italian Alps, in relation to snow cover and hydro‐meteorological conditions. Variations in the daily streamflow range due to melt‐induced runoff events were controlled by maximum daily air temperature and snow covered area in the catchment. Maximum daily streamflow decreased with increasing snow cover, and a threshold relation was found between maximum daily temperature and daily streamflow range. During melt‐induced runoff events, stream water EC decreased due to the contribution of glacier melt water to stream runoff. In this catchment, EC could be used to distinguish the contribution of subglacial flow (identified as an end member, enriched in EC) from glacier melt water to stream runoff, whereas spring water in the study area could not be considered as an end member. The isotopic composition of snow, glacier ice, and melt water was not significantly correlated with the sampling point elevation, and the spatial variability was more likely affected by postdepositional processes. The high spatial and temporal variability in the tracer signature of the end members (subglacial flow, rain water, glacier melt water, and residual winter snow), together with small daily variability in stream water δ²H dynamics, are problematic for the quantification of the contribution of the identified end members to stream runoff, and call for further research, possibly integrated with other natural or artificial tracers.     

Modification and testing of a one‐dimensional energy and mass balance model for supraglacial snowpacks

A one‐dimensional energy and mass balance snow model (SNTHERM) has been modified for use with supraglacial snowpacks and applied to a point on Haut Glacier d'Arolla, Switzerland. It has been adapted to incorporate the underlying glacier ice and a site‐specific, empirically derived albedo routine. Model performance was tested against continuous measurements of snow depth and meltwater outflow from the base of the snowpack, and intermittent measurements of surface albedo and snowpack density profiles collected during the 1993 and 2000 melt seasons. Snow and ice ablation was simulated accurately. The timing of the daily pattern of meltwater outflow was well reproduced, although magnitudes were generally underestimated, possibly indicating preferential flow into the snowpack lysimeter. The model was used to assess the quantity of meltwater stored temporally within the unsaturated snowpack and meltwater percolation rates, which were found to be in agreement with dye tracer experiments undertaken on this glacier. As with other energy balance studies on alpine valley glaciers, the energy available for melt was dominated by net radiation (64%), with a sizable contribution from sensible heat flux (36%) and with a negligible latent heat flux overall, although there was more complex temporal variation on diurnal timescales. A basic sensitivity analysis indicated that melt rates were most sensitive to radiation, air temperature and snowpack density, indicating the need to accurately extrapolate/interpolate these variables when developing a spatially distributed framework for this model. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamics of snow ablation in a small Alpine catchment observed by repeated terrestrial laser scans

The spatio‐temporal distribution of snow in a catchment during ablation reflects changes in the total amount of snow water equivalent and is thus a key parameter for the estimation of melt water run‐off. This study explores possible rules behind the spatial variability of snow depth during the ablation season in a small Alpine catchment with complex topography. The snow depth observations are based on more than 160 000 terrestrial laser scanner data points with a spatial resolution of 1 m, which were obtained from 11 scanning campaigns of two consecutive ablation seasons. The analysis suggests that for estimating cumulative snow melt dynamics from the catchment investigated, assessing the initial snow distribution prior to the melt season is more important than addressing spatial differences in the melt behaviour. Snow volume and snow‐covered area could be predicted well using a conceptual melt model assuming spatially uniform melt rates. However, accurate results were only obtained if the model was initialized with a pre‐melt snow distribution that reflected measured mean and standard deviation. Using stratified melt rates on the other hand did not improve the model results. At least for sites with similar meteorological and topographical conditions, the model approach presented here comprises an efficient way to estimate snow depletion dynamics, especially if persistent snow accumulation pattern between years facilitate the characterization of the initial snow distribution prior to the melt. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the usefulness of remote sensing input data for spatially distributed hydrological modelling: case of the Tarim River basin in China

The ecological situation of the Tarim River basin in China seriously declined since the early 1950s, mainly due to a strong increase in water abstraction for irrigation purposes. To restore the ecological system and support sustainable development of the Tarim River basin region in China, more hydrological studies are demanded to properly understand the processes of the watershed and efficiently manage the water resources. Such studies are, however, complicated due to the limited data availability, especially in the mountainous headwater regions of the Tarim River basin. This study investigated the usefulness of remote sensing (RS) data to overcome that lack of data in the spatially distributed hydrological modelling of the basin. Complementary to the conventional station‐based (SB) data, the RS products that are directly used in this study include precipitation, evapotranspiration and leaf area index. They are derived from raw image data of the Chinese Fengyun meteorological satellite and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). The MODIS land surface temperature was used to calculate the atmospheric temperature lapse rate to describe the temperature dependency on topographical variations. Moreover, MODIS‐based snow cover images were used to obtain model initial conditions and as validation reference for the snow model component. Comparison of model results based on RS input versus conventional SB input exhibited similar results in terms of high and low river runoff extremes, cumulative runoff volumes in both runoff and snow melting seasons and spatial and temporal variability of snow cover. During summer time, when the snow cover shrinks in the permanent glacier region, it was found that the model resolution influences the model results dramatically, hence, showing the importance of detailed (RS based) spatially distributed input data. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling snow water equivalent and spring runoff in a boreal watershed,James Bay,Canada

The hydrology of boreal regions is strongly influenced by seasonal snow accumulation and melt. In this study, we compare simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow by using the hydrological model HYDROTEL with two contrasting approaches for snow modelling: a mixed degree‐day/energy balance model (small number of inputs, but several calibration parameters needed) and the thermodynamic model CROCUS (large number of inputs, but no calibration parameter needed). The study site, in Northern Quebec, Canada was equipped with a ground‐based gamma ray sensor measuring the SWE continuously for 5 years in a small forest clearing. The first simulation of CROCUS showed a tendency to underestimate SWE, attributable to bias in the meteorological inputs. We found that it was appropriate to use a threshold of 2 °C to separate rain and snow. We also applied a correction to account for snowfall undercatch by the precipitation gauge. After these modifications to the input dataset, we noticed that CROCUS clearly overestimated the SWE, likely as a result of not including loss in SWE because of blowing snow sublimation and relocation. To correct this, we included into CROCUS a simple parameterisation effective after a certain wind speed threshold, after which the thermodynamic model performed much better than the traditional mixed degree‐day/energy balance model. HYDROTEL was then used to simulate streamflow with both snow models. With CROCUS, the main peak flow could be captured, but the second peak because of delayed snowmelt from forested areas could not be reproduced due to a lack of sub‐canopy radiation data to feed CROCUS. Despite the relative homogeneity of the boreal landscape, data inputs from each land cover type are needed to generate satisfying simulation of the spring runoff. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially distributed hydrotope‐based modelling of evapotranspiration and runoff in mountainous basins

River basins in mountainous regions are characterized by strong variations in topography, vegetation, soils, climatic conditions and snow cover conditions, and all are strongly related to altitude. The high spatial variation needs to be considered when modelling hydrological processes in such catchments. A complex hydrological model, with a great potential to account for spatial variability, was developed and applied for the hourly simulation of evapotranspiration, soil moisture, water balance and the runoff components for the period 1993 and 1994 in 12 subcatchments of the alpine/pre‐alpine basin of the River Thur (area 1703 km²). The basin is located in the north‐east of the Swiss part of the Rhine Basin and has an elevation range from 350 to 2500 m a.s.l. A considerable part of the Thur Basin is high mountain area, some of it above the tree‐line and a great part of the basin is snow covered during the winter season. In the distributed hydrological model, the 12 sub‐basins of the Thur catchment were spatially subdivided into sub‐areas (hydrologically similar response units—HRUs or hydrotopes) using a GIS. Within the HRUs a hydrologically similar behaviour was assumed. Spatial interpolations of the meteorological input variables wereemployed for each altitudinal zone. The structure of the model components for snow accumulation and melt, interception, soil water storage and uptake by evapotranspiration, runoff generation and flow routing are briefly outlined. The results of the simulated potential evapotranspiration reflect the dominant role of altitudinal change in radiation and albedo of exposure, followed by the influence of slope. The actual evapotranspiration shows, in comparison with the potential evapotranspiration, a greater variability in the lower and medium altitudinal zones and a smaller variability in the upper elevation zones, which was associated with limitations of available moisture in soil and surface depression storages as well as with the evaporative demand of the local vegetation. The higher altitudinal dependency and variability of runoff results from the strong increase in precipitation and the decrease in evaporation with increased altitude. An increasing influence of snow cover on runoff as well as evapotranspiration with altitude is obvious. The computed actual evapotranspiration and runoff were evaluated against the observed values of a weighting lysimeter and against runoff hydrographs. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual variability in glacier contribution to runoff from a high‐elevation Andean catchment: understanding the role of debris cover in glacier hydrology

We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.     

Spatio‐temporal tracer variability in the glacier melt end‐member — How does it affect hydrograph separation results?

Geochemical and isotopic tracers were often used in mixing models to estimate glacier melt contributions to streamflow, whereas the spatio‐temporal variability in the glacier melt tracer signature and its influence on tracer‐based hydrograph separation results received less attention. We present novel tracer data from a high‐elevation catchment (17 km², glacierized area: 34%) in the Oetztal Alps (Austria) and investigated the spatial, as well as the subdaily to monthly tracer variability of supraglacial meltwater and the temporal tracer variability of winter baseflow to infer groundwater dynamics. The streamflow tracer variability during winter baseflow conditions was small, and the glacier melt tracer variation was higher, especially at the end of the ablation period. We applied a three‐component mixing model with electrical conductivity and oxygen‐18. Hydrograph separation (groundwater, glacier melt, and rain) was performed for 6 single glacier melt‐induced days (i.e., 6 events) during the ablation period 2016 (July to September). Median fractions (±uncertainty) of groundwater, glacier melt, and rain for the events were estimated at 49±2%, 35±11%, and 16±11%, respectively. Minimum and maximum glacier melt fractions at the subdaily scale ranged between 2±5% and 76±11%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis showed that the intraseasonal glacier melt tracer variability had a marked effect on the estimated glacier melt contribution during events with large glacier melt fractions of streamflow. Intra‐daily and spatial variation of the glacier melt tracer signature played a negligible role in applying the mixing model. The results of this study (a) show the necessity to apply a multiple sampling approach in order to characterize the glacier melt end‐member and (b) reveal the importance of groundwater and rainfall–runoff dynamics in catchments with a glacial flow regime.     

Response of snow cover and runoff to climate change in high Alpine catchments of Eastern Switzerland

A model study on the impact of climate change on snow cover and runoff has been conducted for the Swiss Canton of Graubünden. The model Alpine3D has been forced with the data from 35 Automatic Weather Stations in order to investigate snow and runoff dynamics for the current climate. The data set has then been modified to reflect climate change as predicted for the 2021–2050 and 2070–2095 periods from an ensemble of regional climate models.The predicted changes in snow cover will be moderate for 2021–2050 and become drastic in the second half of the century. Towards the end of the century the snow cover changes will roughly be equivalent to an elevation shift of 800 m. Seasonal snow water equivalents will decrease by one to two thirds and snow seasons will be shortened by five to nine weeks in 2095.Small, higher elevation catchments will show more winter runoff, earlier spring melt peaks and reduced summer runoff. Where glacierized areas exist, the transitional increase in glacier melt will initially offset losses from snow melt. Larger catchments, which reach lower elevations will show much smaller changes since they are already dominated by summer precipitation.     

Long‐term investigations of the snow cover in a subalpine semi‐forested catchment

To improve spring runoff forecasts from subalpine catchments, detailed spatial simulations of the snow cover in this landscape is obligatory. For more than 30 years, the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL has been conducting extensive snow cover observations in the subalpine watershed Alptal (central Switzerland). This paper summarizes the conclusions from past snow studies in the Alptal valley and presents an analysis of 14 snow courses located at different exposures and altitudes, partly in open areas and partly in forest. The long‐term performance of a physically based numerical snow–vegetation–atmosphere model (COUP) was tested with these snow‐course measurements. One single parameter set with meteorological input variables corrected to the prevailing local conditions resulted in a convincing snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation at most sites and for various winters with a wide range of snow conditions. The snow interception approach used in this study was able to explain the forest effect on the SWE as observed on paired snow courses. Finally, we demonstrated for a meadow and a forest site that a successful simulation of the snowpack yields appropriate melt rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.