Assessing baseflow index vulnerability to variation in dry spell length for a range of catchment and climate properties

Baseflow index (BFI) prediction in ungauged basins has largely been based on the use of catchment physiographic attributes as dominant variables. In a context where changes in climate are increasingly evident, it is also important to study how the slow component of flow is potentially affected by climate. The aim of this study was to illustrate the impact of climate variability on the baseflow process based on analysis of daily rainfall characteristics and hydrological modelling simulation exercises validated with observed data. Ten catchments were analysed that span southern to northern Europe and range from arid Mediterranean to maritime temperate climate conditions. Additionally, more than 2,000 virtual catchments were modelled that cover an extended gradient of physiographic and climate properties. The relative amounts of baseflow were summarized by the BFI. The catchment slow response delay time (Ks) was assumed to be a measure of catchment effects, and the impact of climate properties was investigated with the dry spell length (d). Well‐drained and poorly‐drained groups were identified based on Ks and d, and their response to an increase or decrease in dry spell length was analysed. Overall, for either well‐ or poorly‐drained groups, an extension in dry spell length appeared to have minor effects on the baseflow compared with a decrease in dry spell length. Under the same dry spell variation, the BFI vulnerability appeared higher for catchments characterized by large initial d values in combination with poorly‐drained systems, but attributing an equal weight to the variations in d both in the case of dry and wet initial conditions, it is in the end concluded that the BFI vulnerability appears higher for systems laying in the transition zone between well‐ and poorly‐drained systems.     

Run‐off processes from mountains to foothills: The role of soil stratigraphy and structure in influencing run‐off characteristics across high to low relief landscapes

The critical zone features that control run‐off generation, specifically at the regional watershed scale, are not well understood. Here, we addressed this knowledge gap by quantitatively and conceptually linking regional watershed‐scale run‐off regimes with critical zone structure and climate gradients across two physiographic provinces in the Southeastern United States. We characterized long‐term (~20 years) discharge and precipitation regimes for 73 watersheds with United States Geological Survey in‐stream gaging stations across the Appalachian Mountain and Piedmont physiographic provinces of North Carolina. Watersheds included in this analysis had <10% developed land and ranged in size from 14.1–4,390 km². Thirty‐four watersheds were located in the Piedmont physiographic province, which is typically classified as a low relief landscape with deep, highly weathered soils and regolith. Thirty‐nine watersheds were located in the Appalachian Mountain physiographic province, which is typically classified as a steeper landscape with highly weathered, but shallower soils and regolith. From the United States Geological Survey daily mean run‐off time series, we calculated annual and seasonal baseflow indices (BFI), minimum, mean, and maximum daily run‐off, and Pearson's correlation coefficients between precipitation and baseflow. Our results showed that Appalachian Mountain watersheds systematically had higher minimum daily flows and BFI values. Piedmont watersheds displayed much larger deviations from mean annual BFI in response to year‐to‐year variability in precipitation. A series of linear regression models between 21 landscape metrics and annual BFIs showed non‐linear and complex terrestrial–hydrological relationships across the two provinces. From these results, we discuss how distinct features of critical zone architecture, with specific focus on soil depth and stratigraphy, may be dominating the regulation of hydrological processes and run‐off regimes across these provinces.     

Manganese in runoff from upland catchments: temporal patterns and controls on mobilization / Teneur en manganèse de l'écoulement en bassins versants d'altitude: variations temporelles et contrôles de la mobilisation

Abstract

Knowledge of the hydrochemical dynamics of the trace metal manganese (Mn) in upland catchments is required for water quality management. Stream water Mn and other solutes and flow were monitored in two upland catchments in northern England with different soils: one dominated by peat (HS7), the other by mineral soils (HS4). Maximum Mn concentrations occurred at different times in the two catchments: in summer baseflow at HS4 and during late summer storm events at HS7. A two-component chemical mixing model was used to identify the hydrological processes controlling Mn concentrations in stream water. This approach was more successful for HS4 than HS7, probably because of different processes of Mn release in the two catchments and also difficulties in selecting conservative solutes. Factor analysis of the stream water chemistry data set for each catchment was more useful in identifying the controls on Mn release into runoff. The factors indicate that the main source of Mn at HS4 is the hydrological pathway supplying summer baseflow, whereas at HS7 Mn is released during the rewetting of dried peat soils. Manganese concentrations in stream water in upland catchments appear to depend on soil type and antecedent moisture conditions. This has implications for the design of sampling strategies in upland catchments and also for managing the quality of water supplies from such areas.     

Water quality, nutrients and the water framework directive in an agricultural region: The lower Humber Rivers, northern England

The water quality of rivers in the eastern part of the Humber Basin, north-eastern England is described from a baseflow survey (11–13 August 2006) of a wide range of water quality determinants, and long-term nutrient records of the Environment Agency of England and Wales (EA). The baseflow survey shows that the rivers are oversaturated with respect to dissolved CO₂ and calcite. They are sodium, potassium, lithium, boron, chloride, sulphate and fluoride bearing from a combination of atmospheric, within-catchment, agricultural and sewage effluent sources. Nitrate concentrations are uniform for rivers draining permeable bedrock but decrease for clay drainage areas. Soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) concentrations are variable across the catchments reflecting the importance and variability of point sources and within-river processing. The EA data show annual oscillations for both NO₃ and SRP concentrations. Average NO₃ concentrations vary between 3.3 and 18.8 mgN/l and concentrations are low during the summer months. Average SRP concentrations vary between 23 and 1959 μg/l. Highest SRP concentrations generally occur when there is effluent input from sewage treatment works and agricultural point sources (e.g. overflow from slurry tanks, farmyard washings). Despite many of the rivers being nutrient rich, they are generally of good biological quality when point source inputs are not important.     

Comparative analysis of baseflow characteristics of two Andean catchments,Ecuador

Baseflow in the Andes is commonly considered to be related with the release of water stored in páramos. Páramo is the predominant ecosystem above 3500 m a.s.l. and is characterized by a rainy and cold climate with low evapotranspiration. However, this baseflow concept is based on hydrological process studies in small Andean catchments of a few square kilometre with a homogeneous land cover. Middle‐sized Andean catchments, like the subcatchments of Tarqui and Yanuncay, Ecuador, are rarely homogeneous or uniformly covered by páramo. The objectives of this study are therefore to investigate baseflow characteristics in heterogeneous Andean catchments and to identify relationships between baseflow processes and physical characteristics such as storage and recharge. Hereby, the contribution to baseflow of páramo and other sources such as alluvial aquifers is quantified. This study uses nonlinear recession analysis, physically based filters and digital filters for comparison of baseflow of neighbouring but distinct subcatchments. The Yanuncay subcatchment shows a clearly different storage capacity and recession. The storage capacity of Yanuncay is 50% higher than for Tarqui because of its higher coverage of páramo. On the other hand, considerable storage capacity has also been found in the Tarqui subcatchment, which has a limited páramo area but a significant alluvial aquifer. It is shown that improved understanding of the specific baseflow characteristics such as storage and recharge and its relationships to the heterogeneity of the land cover in Andean catchments will lead to a better assessment of the water resources and give new insights for effective management actions. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Long‐term streamflow trends in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin: detecting drivers of change

The catchments in the Loess Plateau, in China's middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin, experienced unprecedented land use changes in the last 50 years as a result of large‐scale soil conservation measure to control soil erosion. The climate of the region also exhibited some levels of change with decreased precipitation and increased temperature. This study combined the time‐trend analysis method with a sensitivity‐based approach and found that annual streamflow in the Loess Plateau decreased significantly since the 1950s and surface runoff trends appear to dominate the streamflow trends in most of the catchments. Annual baseflow exhibited mostly downward trends, but significant upward trends were also observed in 3 out of 38 gauging stations. Mean annual streamflow during 1979?2010 decreased by up to 65% across the catchments compared with the period of 1957?1978, indicating significant changes in the hydrological regime of the Loess Plateau. It is estimated that 70% of the streamflow reduction can be attributed to land use change, while the remaining 30% is associated with climate variability. Land use change because of the soil conservation measures and reduction in precipitation are the key drivers for the observed streamflow trends. These findings are consistent with results of previous studies for the region and appear to be reasonable given the accelerated level of the soil conservation measures implemented since the late 1970s. Changes in sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, as indicated by variations in El Niño–Southern Oscillation and phase shifts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, appear to have also affected the annual streamflow trends. The framework described in this study shows promising results for quantifying the effects of land use change and climate variability on mean annual streamflow of catchments within the Loess Plateau. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Understanding airborne radiometric survey signals across part of eastern England

A low‐level airborne radiometric survey provides data on the concentrations of gammaemitting elements including potassium (K), thorium (Th) and uranium (U) in the upper half metre of the soil. Where weathering has not penetrated much beyond this depth, as in the young soils that cover much of England and Wales, the signal is likely to be related to the soil's clay content and its parent material. In these situations radiometric survey could be valuable for mapping soil digitally. We wished to understand how the radiometric signal relates to parent material and soil geochemistry, and to identify the spatial structure, if not the sources, of any unexplained variation. We analysed the joint spatial variation of the airborne gamma signal and high‐resolution soil geochemical survey data across part of eastern England by modelling their coregionalization. We also used reml to assess the joint effects of soil geochemistry and parent material on the radiometric signals of K and Th. The overall correlations of radiometric estimates with soil survey data for K and Th were large, as were the structural correlations for components of variation spatially dependent up to 49 and 16 km for K and Th respectively. This suggests that the radiometric signals for these two elements provide effective estimates of the amounts in the soil and their patterns of distribution. Although class of parent material accounted for a third of of the variance in the radiometric K signal, much of the variation within the classes is explained by geochemistry, suggesting that subtler changes can be detected. A larger proportion of the Th signal was accounted for by parent material. This supports our expectation that radiometric signals for K and Th provide information on parent material in the young landscapes of England and Wales. We are therefore confident that airborne radiometric surveys would be useful for making thematic maps of soil, particularly the soil's texture and closely related properties across England and Wales. Copyright © 2007 Natural Environment Research Council. Published in 2007 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Parameter sensitivity of automated baseflow separation for snowmelt‐dominated watersheds and new filtering procedure for determining end of snowmelt period

Automation in baseflow separation procedures allowed fast and convenient baseflow and baseflow index (BF and BFI) estimation for studies including multiple watersheds and covering large spatio‐temporal scales. While most of the existing algorithms are developed and tested extensively for rainfall‐ and baseflow‐dominated systems, little attention is paid on their suitability for snowmelt‐dominated systems. Current publishing practice in regional‐scale studies is to omit BF and BFI uncertainty evaluation or sensitivity analysis. Instead, “standard” and “previously recommended” parameterizations are transferred from rainfall/BF to snowmelt‐dominated systems. We believe that this practice should be abandoned. First, we demonstrate explicitly that the three most popular heuristic automated BF separation methods—Lyne–Hollick and Eckhardt recursive digital filters, and the U.K. Institute of Hydrology smoothed minima method—produce a wide range of annual BF and BFI estimates due to parameter sensitivity during the annual snowmelt period. Then, we propose a solution for cases when BF and BFI calibration is not possible, namely excluding the snowmelt‐dominated period from the analysis. We developed an automated filtering procedure, which divides the hydrograph into pre‐snowbelt, post‐snowmelt, and snowmelt periods. The filter was tested successfully on 218 continuous water years of daily streamflow data for four snowmelt‐dominated headwater watersheds located in Wyoming (60–837 km²). The post‐snowmelt BF and BFI metric can be used for characterizing summer low‐flows for snowmelt‐dominated systems. Our results show that post‐snowmelt BF and BFI sensitivity to filter parameterization is reduced compared with the sensitivity of annual BF and BFI and is similar to the sensitivity levels for rainfall/baseflow systems.     

High resolution climate change scenarios: implications for British runoff

Nationwide changes in spatially well‐resolved patterns of British runoff were investigated under two climate change scenarios derived from general circulation model (GCM) output. A physical process‐based hydrological model (HYSIM) was used to simulate effective runoff across a 10 km×10 km British grid under baseline and future climate conditions. A gridded baseline climatology for precipitation and the Penman variables was used to validate HYSIM across Britain using grid cell‐specific parameters derived from land use and soil type. The climate change scenarios were constructed from the Hadley Centre's high resolution equilibrium GCM (UKHI) for 2050 and transient GCM (UKTR) for 2065. Future effective runoff was simulated under both scenarios by applying changes in precipitation and the Penman variables to the baseline climatology. Annual effective runoff is shown to increase throughout most of Britain under the UKHI scenario for 2050, whilst it decreases over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario for 2065. Both scenarios show an increasing gradient in runoff between a wetter northern Britain and a drier south‐eastern Britain. This gradient is more pronounced under the UKTR scenario. Changes in effective runoff for winter and summer show an increase in seasonality under both scenarios. Winter runoff is shown to increase most in northern Britain under both scenarios, whilst summer runoff is shown to experience major reductions over much of England and Wales under the UKTR scenario. If these simulations are realized, Britain may expect an accentuated north to south‐east imbalance in available water resources. If this is combined with a temporal imbalance suggested by the increased seasonality, there could be problems for the future management of British water resources. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating the impact of rural land management changes on catchment runoff generation in England and Wales

Although reviews of the scientific literature have failed to demonstrate conclusive evidence for the impact of rural land management on peak runoff rates, increasing emphasis is being placed by policy makers on its role in catchment‐scale flood risk management. Poor soil and field conditions can lead to higher rates of runoff from extreme rainfall events; however, the improvement of land condition will lead to differing runoff responses depending on land use, soil type and climatic regime. This study has evaluated the relative impact of improvement of field and soil conditions on peak daily runoff rates for a range of soils and vegetation cover types across England and Wales. It has shown that rural land management changes could be expected to make a positive contribution to sustainable flood risk management, especially for more frequent events. The greatest relative reduction in runoff can be achieved through the improvement of degraded permeable soils under managed grassland in drier regions. Taking a plausible scenario of land management improvement in arable and grassland systems, the relative reduction in peak runoff was estimated for 518 policy units as defined in the Environment Agency's Catchment Flood Management Plans. For the 1 in 100 year event, there were only a few policy units where the expected reduction in runoff exceeded 5%. Rural land management practices which are likely to be beneficial to flood risk management may afford some protection to areas where structural measures may not be implemented for cost–benefit reasons, and may help to offset some of the anticipated increases in flood risk associated with climate change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes in monthly baseflow across the U.S. Midwest

Characterizing streamflow changes in the agricultural U.S. Midwest is critical for effective planning and management of water resources throughout the region. The objective of this study is to determine if and how baseflow has responded to land alteration and climate changes across the study area during the 50‐year study period by exploring hydrologic variations based on long‐term stream gage data. This study evaluates monthly contributions to annual baseflow along with possible trends over the 1966–2016 period for 458 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gages within 12 different Midwestern states. It also examines the influence of climate and land use factors on the observed baseflow trends. Monthly contribution breakdowns demonstrate how the majority of baseflow is discharged into streams during the spring months (March, April, and May) and is overall more substantial throughout the spring (especially in April) and summer (June, July, and August). Baseflow has not remained constant over the study period, and the results of the trend detection from the Mann–Kendall test reveal that baseflows have increased and are the strongest from May to September. This analysis is confirmed by quantile regression, which suggests that for most of the year, the largest changes are detected in the central part of the distribution. Although increasing baseflow trends are widespread throughout the region, decreasing trends are few and limited to Kansas and Nebraska. Further analysis reveals that baseflow changes are being driven by both climate and land use change across the region. Increasing trends in baseflow are linked to increases in precipitation throughout the year and are most prominent during May and June. Changes in agricultural intensity (in terms of harvested corn and soybean acreage) are linked to increasing trends in the central and western Midwest, whereas increasing temperatures may lead to decreasing baseflow trends in spring and summer in northern Wisconsin, Kansas, and Nebraska.     

Simulating a century of soil erosion for agricultural catchment management

Agricultural land management requires strategies to reduce impacts on soil and water resources while maintaining food production. Models that capture the effects of agricultural and conservation practices on soil erosion and sediment delivery can help to address this challenge. Historic records of climatic variability and agricultural change over the last century also offer valuable information for establishing extended baselines against which to evaluate management scenarios. Here, we present an approach that combines centennial‐scale reconstructions of climate and agricultural land cover with modelling across four lake catchments in the UK where radiometric dating provides a record of lake sedimentation. We compare simulations using MMF‐TWI, a catchment‐scale model developed for humid agricultural landscapes that incorporates representation of seasonal variability in vegetation cover, soil water balance, runoff and sediment contributing areas. MMF‐TWI produced mean annual sediment exports within 9–20% of sediment core‐based records without calibration and using guide parameter values to represent vegetation cover. Simulations of land management scenarios compare upland afforestation and lowland field‐scale conservation measures to reconstructed historic baselines. Oak woodland versus conifer afforestation showed similar reductions in mean annual surface runoff (8–16%) compared to current moorland vegetation but a larger reduction in sediment exports (26–46 versus 4–30%). Riparian woodland buffers reduced upland sediment yields by 15–41%, depending on understorey cover levels, but had only minor effect on surface runoff. Planting of winter cover crops in the lowland arable catchment halved historic sediment exports. Permanent grass margins applied to sets of arable fields across 15% or more of the catchment led to further significant reduction in exports. Our findings show the potential for reducing sediment delivery at the catchment scale with land management interventions. We also demonstrate how MMF‐TWI can support hydrologically‐informed decision making to better target conservation measures in humid agricultural environments. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identification of factors influencing hydrologic model performance using a top-down approach in a large number of U.S. catchments

Investigating the performance that can be achieved with different hydrological models across catchments with varying characteristics is a requirement for identifying an adequate model for any catchment, gauged or ungauged, just based on information about its climate and catchment properties. As parameter uncertainty increases with the number of model parameters, it is important not only to identify a model achieving good results but also to aim at the simplest model still able to provide acceptable results. The main objective of this study is to identify the climate and catchment properties determining the minimal required complexity of a hydrological model. As previous studies indicate that the required model complexity varies with the temporal scale, the study considers the performance at the daily, monthly, and annual timescales. In agreement with previous studies, the results show that catchments located in arid areas tend to be more difficult to model. They therefore require more complex models for achieving an acceptable performance. For determining which other factors influence model performance, an analysis was carried out for four catchment groups (snowy, arid, and eastern and western catchments). The results show that the baseflow and aridity indices are the most consistent predictors of model performance across catchment groups and timescales. Both properties are negatively correlated with model performance. Other relevant predictors are the fraction of snow in the annual precipitation (negative correlation with model performance), soil depth (negative correlation with model performance), and some other soil properties. It was observed that the sign of the correlation between the catchment characteristics and model performance varies between clusters in some cases, stressing the difficulties encountered in large sample analyses. Regarding the impact of the timescale, the study confirmed previous results indicating that more complex models are needed for shorter timescales.     

Which baseflow metrics should be used in assessing flow regimes of urban streams?

Determining the impact of urbanisation on baseflow is complex because of the multiplicity of factors that govern subsurface flows. Although many metrics are available to quantify the baseflow regime, the lack of consensus on which metrics need to be used for baseflow characterisation limit their practical application for stormwater management. We performed principal component and correlation analyses on a set of 32 baseflow metrics to identify a subset of non‐redundant metrics for baseflow characterisation. We compared the results for streamflow time series from natural and urban catchments. We found that a subset of five metrics, including at least one metric from each of the four ecologically significant flow characteristic groups (i.e. magnitude, duration, frequency, and timing), explained most of the variability in baseflow regime for both natural and urban catchments. In addition, we analysed the relationship between this set of metrics and some low flow percentiles obtained from flow duration curves. Flow percentiles were only highly correlated to the magnitude and duration metrics, confirming that flow duration curves could be satisfactorily used for baseflow characterisation, but in combination with metrics representing frequency and timing. Metrics based on integration of the flow duration curve, however, cannot simply substitute the consideration of a suite of metrics. We discuss the practicality of our results with a regional regression study; the analyses show how the metrics can be used to quantify the alterations to baseflow caused by urbanisation, and to determine baseflow restoration objectives for urbanised catchments based on pre‐development baseflow regime. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is there a superior conceptual groundwater model structure for baseflow simulation?

Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Run‐off formation in a humid,temperate headwater catchment using a combined hydrological,hydrochemical and isotopic approach (Jizera Mountains,Czech Republic)

The formation of baseflow and stormflow was examined in the 1.18 km² part of the headwater catchment Uhlí?ská, Jizera Mountains, Czech Republic, over the period 2007–2011, by means of run‐off data and environmental tracers ¹⁸O and SiO₂. The baseflow, computed using the digital filter approach BFLOW, contributes 67% to total streamflow and has a mean residence time of 12.3 months. It is formed by groundwater discharge from the valley deluviofluvial granitic sediments, in combination with soil water in weathered layers on hillslopes during rainfall and snowmelt periods. The prevailing source of the groundwater is the infiltration of snowmelt water. Analysis of 20 run‐off events and their hysteretic patterns demonstrated that the stormflow water has a residence time of about 4 months and is generated by preferential flow on hillslopes combined by soil matrix drainage. Because of slower flow in the soil matrix, the enrichment of pore water in SiO₂ is more pronounced. The stormflow and snowmelt water flowing via preferential pathways of upslope minerals soils pushes the pre‐event groundwater through the pathways in wetlands to the stream, and the wetland can be therefore considered as groundwater supplied. This mechanism has been found to be typical for the groundwater‐supplied headwater catchments of the Jizera Mountains and can be also assumed in other mountainous headwaters of the granitic massif in Central Europe. The main methodological contribution of this study are the residence time calculations stratified by baseflow and event flow, identifying run‐off components of different travel times to streams and linking them with geochemical run‐off sources. This achievement was possible because of a comprehensive dataset on hydrology, stable isotopes and silica hydrochemistry in all relevant run‐off generation components. This concept indicates that a possible long‐term change in snowmelt may affect the run‐off regime of headwater catchments to climate or land‐use changes. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of instream processes,discharge, and land cover on nitrogen export from southern Appalachian Mountain catchments

Catchments with minimal disturbance usually have low dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export, but disturbances and anthropogenic inputs result in elevated DIN concentration and export and eutrophication of downstream ecosystems. We studied streams in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA, an area dominated by hardwood deciduous forest but with areas of valley agriculture and increasing residential development. We collected weekly grab samples and storm samples from nine small catchments and three river sites. Most discharge occurred at baseflow, with baseflow indices ranging from 69% to 95%. We identified three seasonal patterns of baseflow DIN concentration. Streams in mostly forested catchments had low DIN with bimodal peaks, and summer peaks were greater than winter peaks. Streams with more agriculture and development also had bimodal peaks; however, winter peaks were the highest. In streams draining catchments with more residential development, DIN concentration had a single peak, greatest in winter and lowest in summer. Three methods for estimating DIN export produced consistent results. Annual DIN export ranged from less than 200 g ha^?1 year^?1 for the less disturbed catchments to over 2,000 g ha^?1 year^?1 in the catchments with the least forest area. Land cover was a strong predictor of DIN concentration but less significant for predicting DIN export. The two forested reference catchments appeared supply limited, the most residential catchment appeared transport limited, and export for the other catchments was significantly related to discharge. In all streams, baseflow DIN export exceeded stormflow export. Morphological and climatological variation among watersheds created complexities unexplainable by land cover. Nevertheless, regression models developed using land cover data from the small catchments reasonably predicted concentration and export for receiving rivers. Our results illustrate the complexity of mechanisms involved in DIN export in a region with a mosaic of climate, geology, topography, soils, vegetation, and past and present land use.     

PESERA‐PEAT: a fluvial erosion model for blanket peatlands

In peatlands, fluvial erosion can lead to a dramatic decline in hydrological function, major changes in the net carbon balance and loss of biodiversity. Climate and land management change are thought to be important influences on rates of peat erosion. However, sediment production in peatlands is different to that of other soils and no models of erosion specifically for peatlands currently exist. Hence, forecasting the influence of future climate or spatially‐distributed management interventions on peat erosion is difficult. The PESERA‐GRID model was substantially modified in this study to include dominant blanket peat erosion processes. In the resulting fluvial erosion model, PESERA‐PEAT, freeze–thaw and desiccation processes were accounted for by a novel sediment supply index as key features of erosion. Land management practices were parameterized for their influence on vegetation cover, biomass and soil moisture condition. PESERA‐PEAT was numerically evaluated using available field data from four blanket peat‐covered catchments with different erosion conditions and management intensity. PESERA‐PEAT was found to be robust in modelling fluvial erosion in blanket peat. A sensitivity analysis of PESERA‐PEAT showed that modelled sediment yield was more sensitive to vegetation cover than other tested factors such as precipitation, temperature, drainage density and ditch/gully depth. Two versions of PESERA‐PEAT, equilibrium and time‐series, produced similar results under the same environmental conditions, facilitating the use of the model at different scales. The equilibrium model is suitable for assessing the high‐resolution spatial variability of average monthly peat erosion over the study period across large areas (national or global assessments), while the time‐series model is appropriate for investigating continuous monthly peat erosion throughout study periods across smaller areas or large regions using a coarser‐spatial resolution. PESERA‐PEAT will therefore support future investigations into the impact of climate change and management options on blanket peat erosion at various spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the effects of Eucalyptus plantations and management on water resources at plot and catchment scales

Our aim was to quantify the effects of forest plantation and management (clear cut or 30% partial harvest) in relation to pasture, on catchment discharge in southeast Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil. A paired‐catchment approach was implemented in two regions (Eldorado do Sul and São Gabriel municipalities) where discharge was measured for 4 years at three catchments in each region, two of which were predominantly eucalypt plantation (mainly Eucalyptus saligna, rotation of approximately 7–9 years) with native forest and grass in streamside zones. The third catchment was covered with grazed pasture. Weather, soils, canopy interception, groundwater level, tree growth, and leaf area index were also measured. The 3‐PG process‐based forest productivity model was adapted to predict spatial daily plantation and pasture water balance including precipitation interception, soil evaporation, transpiration, soil moisture, drainage, discharge, and monthly plantation growth. The TOPMODEL framework was used to simulate water pools and fluxes in the catchments. Discharge was higher under pasture than pre‐harvesting plantation and increased for 1–2 years after complete plantation harvest; this change was less pronounced in the catchments under partial harvest. The ratio of discharge to precipitation before harvesting varied from 7% to 13% in the eucalypt catchments and 28% to 29% under pasture. The ratio increases to 23–24% after total harvest, and to 17% after partial harvesting. The ratio under pasture also increases during this period (to 32–44%) owing to increased precipitation. The baseflow, in relation to total discharge, varied from 28% to 62% under Eucalyptus and from 38% to 43% in the pasture catchments. Hence, eucalypt plantations in these regions can be expected to influence discharge regimes when compared with pasture land use, and modelling suggests that partial harvesting would moderate the magnitude of discharge variation compared with a full catchment plantation harvesting. The model efficiency coefficient (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient) varied from 0.665 to 0.799 for the total period of the study. Simulation of alternative harvesting scenarios suggested that at least 20% of the catchment planted area must be harvested to increase discharge. This model could be a useful practical tool in various plantation forestry contexts around the world. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting dry‐season flows with a monthly rainfall–runoff model: Performance for gauged and ungauged catchments

Hydrologic models are useful to understand the effects of climate and land‐use changes on dry‐season flows. In practice, there is often a trade‐off between simplicity and accuracy, especially when resources for catchment management are scarce. Here, we evaluated the performance of a monthly rainfall–runoff model (dynamic water balance model, DWBM) for dry‐season flow prediction under climate and land‐use change. Using different methods with decreasing amounts of catchment information to set the four model parameters, we predicted dry‐season flow for 89 Australian catchments and verified model performance with an independent dataset of 641 catchments in the United States. For the Australian catchments, model performance without catchment information (other than climate forcing) was fair; it increased significantly as the information to infer the four model parameters increased. Regressions to infer model parameters from catchment characteristics did not hold for catchments in the United States, meaning that a new calibration effort was needed to increase model performance there. Recognizing the interest in relative change for practical applications, we also examined how DWBM could be used to simulate a change in dry‐season flow following land‐use change. We compared results with and without calibration data and showed that predictions of changes in dry‐season flow were robust with respect to uncertainty in model parameters. Our analyses confirm that climate is a strong driver of dry‐season flow and that parsimonious models such as DWBM have useful management applications: predicting seasonal flow under various climate forcings when calibration data are available and providing estimates of the relative effect of land use on seasonal flow for ungauged catchments.