Probabilistic infinite slope analysis

Research activity in the mechanics of landslides has led to renewed interest in the infinite slope equations, and the need for a more general framework for giving insight into the probability of failure of long slopes involving non-homogeneous vertical soil profiles and variable groundwater conditions. This paper describes a methodology in which parameters such as the soil strength, slope geometry and pore pressures, are generated using random field theory. Within the limitations of the infinite slope assumptions, the paper clearly demonstrates the important “seeking out” effect of failure mechanisms in spatially random materials, and how “first order” methods that may not properly account for spatial variability can lead to unconservative estimates of the probability of slope failure.     

黄河口海底斜坡不稳定性调查研究

黄河的高含沙量和河口快速沉积,形成了独具特色的水下三角洲。利用精密的深度记录仪,高分辨率的地震剖面仪和旁侧扫描声纳,结合海底钻探、取样、测试及室内土工分析,得到了与黄河一口海底不稳定性有关的水下底坡的形貌特征,沉积物类型、空间分布及基本物理力学性质。水下底坡失稳破坏主要型式为塌陷洼地和粉砂流冲沟。在暴风浪作用下,水下底坡原破坏区发生复活,复活时间与风暴潮的开始与结束相对应。这种重新开始和重复的移动明显地限制在滑坡体的内部,既没有扩大,也没有向斜坡上后退。目前亟待于开展波浪作用下土体动力响应过程现场和室内实验研究,以揭示底坡破坏的成因机制,从而建立水下底坡失稳破坏和工程地质环境质量的定量预测评价方法,指导近海工程活动中地质灾害的减轻与防治。     

边坡失稳的仿真模拟分析

利用ANSYS仿真模拟平台,配合滑动方向准则及临界滑动面的寻求模式对边坡稳定性进行分析.分析过程中,考虑了边坡失稳过程中的应力重分布,由此引起了临界滑动面的改变,真实地反映了边坡失稳是一个逐步发展的过程,并以算例对边坡失稳的过程进行了仿真模拟分析.     

Hazard analysis of seismic submarine slope instability

To assess the risk associated with a submarine landslide, one must estimate the probability of slope failure and its consequences. This paper proposes a procedure to estimate the probability of earthquake-induced submarine slope failure (hazard) based on probabilistic seismic hazard analyses, ground response analyses and advanced laboratory tests. The outcomes from these analyses are treated in a probabilistic framework, with analytical simulations using mathematical techniques such as the first-order reliability method, Monte Carlo simulation and Bayesian updating. Fragility curves of slope failure during the earthquake (co-seismic) and after the earthquake (post-seismic) were developed in this study, and were shown to provide a clear and well-organized procedure to estimate the annual failure probability of a submarine slope under earthquake loading.     

禁忌搜索在边坡稳定分析中的应用

在禁忌搜索和极限平衡分析的基础上,提出了全局确定边坡最小安全系数的禁忌搜索方法,并建立了响应的模型;该方法是一种启发式的全局搜索方法,可以搜索出全局最小安全系数,同时还能确定出与之对应的最危险滑动面。将该方法应用于不同几何形状和土层信息的边坡稳定分析中,结果表明,提出的方法能够避免局部最小解,并能搜索到全局最小安全系数。     

Anatomy of a subaqueous ice-contact fan and delta complex, Middle Pleistocene, North-west Germany

This paper presents a detailed analysis of the high‐resolution facies architecture of the Middle Pleistocene Porta subaqueous ice‐contact fan and delta complex, deposited on the northern margin of glacial Lake Weser (North‐west Germany). A total of 10 sand and gravel pits and more than 100 wells were examined to document the complex facies architecture. The field study was supplemented with a ground‐penetrating radar survey and a shear‐wave seismic survey. All collected sedimentological and geophysical data were integrated into a high‐resolution three‐dimensional geological model for reconstructing the spatial distribution of facies associations. The Porta subaqueous fan and delta complex consist of three fan bodies deposited on a flat lake‐bottom surface at the margin of a retreating ice lobe. The northernmost fan complex is up to 55 m thick, 6·2 km wide and 6·5 km long. The incipient fan deposition is characterized by high‐energy flows of a plane‐wall jet. Very coarse‐grained, highly scoured jet‐efflux deposits with an elongate plan shape indicate a high Froude number, probably >5. These jet‐efflux sediments are deposited in front of a large ～3·2 km long, up to 1·2 km wide, and up to 25 m deep flute‐like scour, indicating the most proximal erosion and bypass area of the jet that widens and deepens with distance downstream to the region of maximum turbulence (approximately five times the conduit diameter). Evidence for subsequent flow splitting is given by the presence of two marginal gravel fan lobes, deposited in front of 1·3 to 2·5 km long flute‐like scours, that are 0·8 to 1 km wide and 7 to 20 m deep. In response to continued aggradation, small jets developed at the periphery of these bar‐like deposits and filled in the low areas adjacent to the original superelevated regions, locally raising the depositional surface and characterized by large‐scale trough cross‐stratified sand and pebbly sand. The incision of an up to 1·2 km wide and up to 35 m deep channel into the evolving fan is attributed to a catastrophic drainage event, probably related to a lake outburst and lake‐level fall in the range of 40 to 60 m. At the mouth of this channel, highly scoured jet‐efflux deposits formed under hydraulic‐jump conditions during flow expansion. Subsequently, Gilbert‐type deltas formed on the truncated fan margin, recording a second lake‐level drop in the range of 30 to 40 m. These catastrophic lake‐level falls were probably caused by rapid ice‐lobe retreat controlled by the convex‐up bottom topography of the ice valley.     

An analytical solution for rainfall infiltration into an unsaturated infinite slope and its application to slope stability analysis

Surficial slope failures in residual soils are common in tropical and subtropical regions as a result of rainfall infiltration. This study develops an analytical solution for simulating rainfall infiltration into an infinite unsaturated soil slope. The analytical solution is based on the general partial differential equation for water flow through unsaturated soils. It can accept soil–water characteristic curve and unsaturated permeability function of the exponential form into account. Numerical simulations are conducted to verify the assumptions of the analytical solution and demonstrate that the proposed analytical solution is acceptable for the coarse soils with low air entry values. The pore‐water pressure (pwp) distributions obtained from the analytical solution can be incorporated into a limit equilibrium method to do infinite slope stability analysis for a rain‐induced shallow slip. The analysis method takes into account the influence of the water content change on unit weight and hence on factor of safety. A series of analytical parametric analyses have been performed using the developed model. The analyses indicate that when the residual soil slope, consisting of a completely decomposed granite layer underlain by a less permeable layer, is subjected to a continuous heavy rainfall, the loss of negative pwp and the reduction in factor of safety were found to be most significant for the shallow soil layer and during the first 12 h. The antecedent and subsequent rainfall intensity, depth of a less permeable layer and slope angle all have a significant influence on the pwp response and hence the slope stability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Lateral strength and critical depth in infinite slope stability analysis

Infinite slope (IS) method is the simplest limit equilibrium method for slope stability analysis. It gives reliable results for slides where the longitudinal dimension prevails on the depth of the landslide. Usually results are conservative since ignoring the effects of the strength along lateral bounds. Here, starting from the assumption of considering the effects of the shear strength along lateral bounds by a rectangular cross section, a new expression of the safety factor is investigated, based first on an elliptical and then on a parabolic cross section of the landslide mass. The safety factor evaluated in this way can be quite different from those returned by the classic formula of IS model, in particular when the width of the landslide is narrow with respect to its depth and the ratio between the width and the depth of the landslide is lower than 5. An interesting implication of the proposed model is that if cohesion differs from zero, there is a ‘critical depth’, where the safety factor has a minimum value. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

黄河水下三角洲沉积物强度变化原位测试研究

研究区位于1964～1976年黄河由刁口入海时形成的水下三角洲叶瓣上。1995年为石油开采在潮坪上构筑的交通设施对波浪形成良好的屏障。在屏障两侧各选一典型研究区，于1999年和2002年进行了大量对比性现场原位土工测试，探讨了波浪对黄河口沉积物的次生改造作用，结果表明：(1)较强的波浪荷载作用，不会提高海底沉积物的表层强度，只是导致不均匀程度随水动力作用的时间增长有所加大：(2)较强的波浪荷载作用，使得海底表层沉积物之下一定深度范围内土体强度提高，形成强度硬层：(3)海底沉积物强度沿着剖面线在平面上呈现周期性或间隔性变化。     

模糊数学在边坡稳定分析中的应用

边坡稳定性分析是一个非常复杂的不确定问题,其不确定性主要有两种：随机不确定和模糊不确定。实践证明,模糊不确定是比随机不确定更为深刻的不确定性。综述了模糊数学在边坡稳定性分析中的应用,重点阐述了模糊综合评判、模糊参数非概率稳定性分析和模糊随机可靠度的原理、特点及研究现状。针对模糊理论和边坡稳定自身的特点及其研究现状,对模糊数学在边坡稳定性分析应用中存在的问题及未来的发展方向进行了分析,以期为相关研究提供有益借鉴。     

A GIS tool for infinite slope stability analysis (GIS-TISSA)

Landslides are one of the most common and a destructive natural hazard in mountainous terrain and thus evaluating their potential locations and the conditions under which they may occur is crucial for their hazard assessment.Shallow landslide occurrence in soil and regolith covered slopes are often modeled using the infinite slope model,which characterizes the slope stability in terms of a factor of safety(FS) value.Different approaches have been followed to also assess and propagate uncertainty through such models.Haneberg(2004) introduced the use of the First Order Second Moment(FOSM) method to propagate input uncertainty through the infinite slope model,further developing the model and implementing it in the PISA-m software package(Haneberg,2007).Here we present an ArcPy implementation of PISA-m algorithms,which can be run from ESRI ArcMap in an entirely consistent georeferenced framework,and which we call "GIS Tool for Infinite Slope Stability Analysis"(GIS-TISSA).Users can select between different input options,e.g.,following a similar input style as for PISA-m,i.e., using an ASCII.csv parameters input file,or providing each input parameter as a raster or constant value,through the program graphic user interface.Analysis outputs can include FS mean and standard deviation estimates,the probability of failure(FS <1), and a reliability index(RI) calculation for FS.Following the same seismic analysis approach as in PISA-m, the Newmark acceleration can also be done,for which raster files of the mean,standard deviation,probability of exceedance,and RI are also generated.Verification of the code is done by replicating the results obtained with the PISA-m code for different input options,within a 10-5 relative error.Monte Carlo modeling is also applied to validate GIS-TISSA outputs,showing a good overall correspondence.A case study was performed for Kannur district,Kerala,India,where an extensive landslide databa se for the year 2018 was available.81.19% of the actual landslides fell in zones identified by the model as unstable.GIS-TISSA provides a user-friendly interface,particularly for those users familiar with ESRI ArcMap,that is fully embedded in a GIS framework and which can then be used for further analysis without having to change software platforms and do data conversions.The ArcPy toolbox is provided as a.pyt file as an appendix as well as hosted at the weblink:https://pages.mtu.edu/~toommen/GeoHazard.html.     

Flow and sediment transport over large subaqueous dunes: Fraser River, Canada

Large symmetric and asymmetric dunes occur in the Fraser River, Canada. Symmetric dunes have stoss and lee sides of similar length, stoss and lee slope angles <8°, and rounded crests. Asymmetric dunes have superimposed small dunes on stoss sides, sharp crests, stoss sides longer than lee sides, stoss side slopes <3° and straight lee side slopes up to 19°. There is no evidence for lee side flow separation, although intermittent separated flow is possible, especially over asymmetric dunes. Dune symmetry and crest rounding of symmetric dunes are associated with high sediment transport rates. High near-bed velocity and bed load transport near dune crests result in crest rounding. Long, low-angle lee sides are produced by deposition of suspended sediment in dune troughs. Asymmetric dunes appear to be transitional features between large symmetric dunes and smaller dunes adjusted to lower flow velocity and sediment transport conditions. Small dunes on stoss sides reduce near-bed flow velocity and bed load transport, causing a sharper dune crest. Reduced deposition of suspended sediment in troughs results in a short, steep lee slope. Dunes in the Fraser River fall into upper plane bed or antidune stability fields on flume-based bedform phase diagrams. These diagrams are probably not applicable to large dunes in deep natural flows and care must be taken in modelling procedures that use phase diagram relations to predict bed configuration in such flows.     

Application of multi-temporal differential interferometry to slope instability detection in urban/peri-urban areas

We present two case studies regarding the application of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Persistent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI) techniques to landslide-prone slopes situated in the municipal territories of Caramanico Terme and Volturino (Italy). The analysis of satellite SAR data with PSI techniques poses often problems on sites where, due to the scarcity of human artefacts and the presence of vegetation cover, density of coherent points (PS) is low (< 10 per km²). Moreover, the steep and rough topography typical of landslide-prone areas hamper the interferometric pre-processing, making more difficult the joint estimation of displacements and of DEM errors. Under these conditions the significance of temporal interferometric phase trends can be uncertain and conservative assumptions, necessary to ensure low false detection probabilities, need to be coupled with innovative processing strategies to increase the detection efficiency of PS objects. Here, the SPINUA (Stable Point Interferometry over Un-urbanised Areas) processing technique is applied together with an alternative PS Candidate (PSC) selection procedure based on the use of pixels classified as urban.

The cases of Caramanico and Volturino are representative, respectively, of harsh and favourable conditions for PSI applications. The results from Caramanico show clusters of PS exhibiting similar line-of-sight (LOS) deformation behaviour in the period 1995–2000. The locations of moving PS often coincide with distressed buildings and appear consistent with the areal distribution of recent and past landslide activity. The temporal displacement trends, however, are characterised by very low annual average velocities (from 3 to 7 mm/y) and it is uncertain to what extent the PS data reflect true slope movements, local deformations (e.g. settlement of engineering structures) or both.

Thanks to the more favourable conditions, the application of the standard SPINUA approach in the Volturino area was sufficient to obtain suitable densities of PS, as well as spatially and temporally consistent displacement results for a period 1992–2000. In particular, a group of moving PS was identified in a peri-urban area, known for the past and recent slope stability problems. The slowly moving PS (from 3 to 5 mm/y) fall in a location that, unlike the remaining part of the town, is characterised by the presence of many distressed buildings and structures. Although the site information confirms the reliability of PS data, in the absence of ground monitoring and detailed records of landslide movements, it is difficult to identify the main mechanism of the detected deformations. In general, in geologically and topographically complex urban/peri-urban settings, the significance of very low-velocity PSI surface displacements should always be considered together with in situ geotechnical controls and ground monitoring data.     

可靠性理论在边坡反分析中的运用

将反分析方法和可靠性理论相结合,分析了两者的异同点和存在的问题,提出了一种方便而实用计算方法用于在边坡反算中选择岩土体参数,该方法给出了在统计信息有限的情况下,如何处理各参数均值的思路。     

SMR and Kinematic analysis for slope instability along Bodi-Bodimettu ghat section,Tamil Nadu

This study evaluates slope stability of 19km stretch Bodimettu ghat section, Theni,Tamil Nadu. The study involves 107.8km to 117.5km stretch by dividing it into two zones - Kaththuparai and Bodimettu slope. These two sections are considered for slope stability studies. In this study, analysis of the rock slope stability was performed using Modified SMR technique. Hoek and Bray (1981) analysis have been used for rock cut slopes. 12 rock slopes were identified in Kaththuparai section and four slopes in Bodimettu section. The detailed field investigations were carried out to collect data required for RMR and SMR calculation and SMR was calculated for each section. As per Hoek and Bray (1981) stereographic projection methods, FOS was calculated. In this study, sections R1 and R2 fulfill wedge conditions and R1, R2, R5, R7, R9, R10, R11, R12, R13, R14 and R16 are suitable for planar and stereographic analysis. The details are furnished in this paper. The planar analysis shows that, FOS for the sections R2/J2, R5, R9, R10, and R11/J3 was < 1, and stereographic projection study shows that sections R2, R5, R7, R9, R10, R11/J3 and R13 are present in unstable zone.     

库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析

库岸斜坡失稳及其引发涌浪问题是库岸斜坡灾害的重要研究部分,开展库岸斜坡失稳及其涌浪灾害风险分析研究对指导库岸斜坡防灾减灾具有重要意义。以湖南省麻阳县大水冲水库滑坡为例,探讨库岸斜坡失稳引发涌浪灾害的分析方法,采用Geostudio软件进行10年和50年一遇5日累积降雨的滑坡稳定性模拟分析,绘制滑坡影响范围内建筑物风险变化图和室内人员风险变化图。总结了在最危险工况下,大水冲水库滑坡总经济风险为249.3万元,室内人员的风险值达到27.8,并有产生翻坝的可能,但对沟口居民和水库坝体破坏的风险低。     

Sedimentology of subaqueous volcaniclastic sediment gravity flows in the Neogene Santa Maria Basin, California

Subaqueous tuff deposits within the lower Miocene Lospe Formation of the Santa Maria Basin, California, are up to 20 m thick and were deposited by high density turbidity flows after large volumes of ash were supplied to the basin and remobilized. Tuff units in the Lospe Formation include a lower lithofacies assemblage of planar bedded tuff that grades upward into massive tuff, which in turn is overlain by an upper lithofacies assemblage of alternating thin bedded, coarse grained tuff beds and tuffaceous mudstone. The planar bedded tuff ranges from 0.3 to 3 m thick and contains 1-8 cm thick beds that exhibit inverse grading, and low angle and planar laminations. The overlying massive tuff ranges from 1 to 10 m thick and includes large intraclasts of pumiceous tuff and stringers of pumice grains aligned parallel to bedding. The upper lithofacies assemblage of thin bedded tuff ranges from 0.4 to 3 m thick; individual beds are 6-30 cm thick and display planar laminae and dewatering structures. Pumice is generally concentrated in the upper halves of beds in the thin bedded tuff interval. The association of sedimentary structures combined with semi-quantitative analysis for dispersive and hydraulic equivalence of bubble-wall vitric shards and pumice grains reveals that particles in the planar bedded lithofacies are in dispersive, not settling, equivalence. This suggests deposition under dispersive pressures in a tractive flow. Grains in the overlying massive tuff are more closely in settling equivalence as opposed to dispersive equivalence, which suggests rapid deposition from a suspended sediment load. The set of lithofacies that comprises the lower lithofacies assemblage of each of the Lospe Formation tuff units is analogous to those of traction carpets and subsequent suspension sedimentation deposits often attributed to high density turbidity flows. Grain distributions in the upper thin bedded lithofacies do not reveal a clear relation for dispersive or settling equivalence. This information, together with the association of sedimentary features in the thin bedded lithofacies, including dewatering structures, suggests a combination of tractive and liquefied flows. Absence of evidence for elevated emplacement temperatures (e.g. eutaxitic texture or shattered crystàls) suggests emplacement of the Lospe Formation tuff deposits in a cold state closely following pyroclastic eruptions. The tuff deposits are not only a result of primary volcanic processes which supplied the detritus, but also of processes which involved remobilization of unconsolidated ash as subaqueous sediment gravity flows. These deposits provide an opportunity to study the sedimentation processes that may occur during subaqueous volcaniclastic flows and demonstrate similarities with existing models for sediment gravity flow processes.     

Lithological and palynological evidence of late Quaternary depositional environments in the subaqueous Yangtze delta, China

AMS ¹⁴C ages of post-glacial core sediments from the subaqueous Yangtze delta, along with sedimentary structures and distributions of grain size, pollen spores, and dinoflagellate cysts, show an estuarine depositional system from 13 to 8.4 cal ka BP and a deltaic system from 5.9 cal ka BP to the present. The estuarine system consists of intertidal to subtidal flat, estuarine, and estuarine-front facies, characterized by sand–mud couplets and a high sedimentation rate. The deltaic system includes nearshore shelf and prodelta mud featured by lower sedimentation rate, markedly fewer coastal wetland herbaceous pollens, and more dinoflagellate cysts. We explain the extremely high sedimentation rate during 9.2–8.4 cal ka BP at the study site as a result of rapid sea-level rise, high sediment load due to the unstable monsoonal climate, and subaqueous decrease of elevation from inner to outer estuary. A depositional hiatus occurred during 8.2–5.9 cal ka BP, the transition from estuarine to deltaic system, caused possibly by a shortage of sediment supply resulting from delta initiation in paleo-incised Yangtze valley and strong tidal or storm-related reworking in offshore areas. The subsequent development of deltaic system at the study site indicates accelerated progradation of Yangtze delta post-5.9 cal ka BP.