四川气象系统隆重庆祝“3.23”世界气象日

3月23日是世界气象日，每到这一天全世界气象工作者都会在庆祝自己节日的同时，由世界气象组织选定一个主题，向公众宣传气象知识。引起人们对天气、气候以及气象科学的关注。     

Early Flood Warning for Linyi Watershed by the GRAPES/XXT Model Using TIGGE Data

Early and effective flood warning is essential for reducing loss of life and economic damage.Three global ensemble weather prediction systems of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA),the Europe...     

A New Approach to Data Assimilation

A significant attempt to design a timesaving and efficient four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) has been made in this paper, and a new approach to data assimilation, which is noted as 'three-dimensional variational data assimilation of mapped observation (3DVM)' is proposed, based on the new concept of mapped observation and the new idea of backward 4DVar. Like the available 4DVar, 3DVM produces an optimal initial condition (IC) that is consistent with the prediction model due to the inclusion of model constraints and best fits the observations in the assimilation window through the model solution trajectory. Different from the 4DVar, the IC derived from 3DVM is located at the end of the assimilation window rather than at the beginning conventionally. This change greatly reduces the computing cost for the new approach, which is almost the same as that of the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar). Especially, such a change is able to improve assimilation accuracy because it does not need the tangential linear and adjoint approximations to calculate the gradient of cost function. Therefore, in numerical test, the new approach produces better IC than 4DVar does for 72-h simulation of TY9914 (Dan), by assimilating the three-dimensional fields of temperature and wind retrieved from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) observations. Meanwhile, it takes only 1/7 of the computing cost that the 4DVar requires for the same initialization with the same retrieved data.     

Effects of heterogeneous vegetation on the surface hydrological cycle

Using the three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) hydrological model and the successive interpolation approach (SIA) of climate factors, the authors studied the effect of different land cover types on the surface hydrological cycle. Daily climate data from 1992 to 2001 and remotely-sensed leaf area index (LAI) are used in the model. The model is applied to the Baohe River basin, a subbasin of the Yangtze River basin, China, with an area of 2500 km2. The vegetation cover types in the Baohe River basin consist mostly of the mixed forest type (85%). Comparison of the modeled results with the observed discharge data suggests that: (1) Daily discharges over the period of 1992–2001 simulated with inputs of remotely-sensed land cover data and LAI data can generally produce observed discharge variations, and the modeled annual total discharge agrees with observations with a mean difference of 1.4%. The use of remote sensing images also makes the modeled spatial distributions of evapotranspiration physically meaningful. (2) The relative computing error (RCE) of the annual average discharge is ?24.8% when the homogeneous broadleaf deciduous forestry cover is assumed for the watershed. The error is 21.8% when a homogeneous cropland cover is assumed and ?14.32% when an REDC (Resource and Environment Database of China) land cover map is used. The error is reduced to 1.4% when a remotely-sensed land cover at 1000-m resolution is used.     

几档不同主题气象节目的片头创意

2004年1月1日,宁波的气象节目全新改版,并且节目由原来的3套增至5套,作为这次节目改版的主要技术人员,我们在片头的创意和制作上也做了大量的工作.本文从这些片头中选择了三个比较有特色的,对它们创意过程进行了总结,得到了一些经验:每个片头都该有它的主题,围绕这个主题对片头做一个整体规划,另外一定要注意画面的美感,美的东西才能真正地吸引观众.     

第27届中国气象学会年会S16分会场“气象事业发展战略和低碳经济”主题征文

第27届中国气象学会年会将于2010年10月份在北京举办。根据中国气象学会气象软科学委员会的工作安排,并经过与气象经济委员友好协商,两个委员会将再次携手,共同主办中国气象学会年会S16分会场,分会场的主题为“气象事业发展战略和低碳经济”。目前会场报名和投稿工作都在有序进行。     

A correction method suitable for Dynamical Seasonal Prediction

Based on the hindcast results of summer rainfall anomalies over China for the period 1981–2000 by the Dynamical Climate Prediction System (IAP-DCP) developed by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, a correction method that can account for the dependence of model’s systematic biases on SST anomalies is proposed. It is shown that this correction method can improve the hindcast skill of the IAP-DCP for summer rainfall anomalies over China, especially in western China and southeast China, which may imply its potential application to real-time seasonal prediction.     

转变发展方式 推进气象现代化 优质服务广东经济社会科学发展

2012年我省气象工作的总体要求是：进一步贯彻落实汪洋书记重要指示精神,牢牢把握＂主题主线＂,解放思想,深化改革,立足新起点,把握新趋势,建立新机制,增创新优势,落实＂十二五＂重大项目,进一步完善事业发展长效机制,切实提高＂四个能力＂,加快率先基本实现气象现代化步伐,继续提高预报水平,努力造福社会,为＂加快转型升级、建设幸福广东＂提供优质气象服务。为此,重点做好八项工作和落实好＂为民服务八件实事＂。     

2011年全省气象局长工作研讨会议

10月23—24日,2011年全省气象局长工作研讨会议在哈尔滨举行。会议进一步深刻领会了胡锦涛总书记“七一”讲话和党的十七届六中全会精神,进一步学习领会了国办33号文件的精神和要求,进一步学习领会了中央领导同志关于气象工作的重要指示精神和2011年全国气象局长工作研讨会议精神,进一步提高了对“四个能力”建设的认识,并从服务全面建设小康社会和推动气象事业科学发展的全局出发,围绕科学发展主题和转变发展方式主线,研讨如何大力提高“四个能力”,努力实现气象现代化的宏伟目标。     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists     

Skilful Forecasts of Summer Rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin from November

Variability in the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) brings the risk of heavy flooding or drought to the Yangtze River basin, with potentially devastating impacts. Early forecasts of the likelihood of enhanced or reduced monsoon rainfall can enable better management of water and hydropower resources by decision-makers, supporting livelihoods and major economic and population centres across eastern China. This paper demonstrates that the EASM is predictable in a dynamical forecast model from the pr...     

对气象科普片创作的一些思考与体会

随着我国经济水平的提高,人民生活变得丰富多彩,电视节目的内容和形式日新月异,观众整体文化素质的提高使人们的求知欲越来越强,对电视节目的品味和要求越来越高,寓教于乐的科普性的电视节目越来越受到观众的喜爱,气象科普专题片以它特有的内容和形式向人们揭开气象科学高深莫测的神秘面纱,展示气象科学的多姿多彩.     

Editorial

As we will soon celebrate the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Meteorological Society （CMS）,Acta Meteorologica Sinica （AMS）,which was originally named as Bulletin of the Chinese Meteorological Society,has gone through 89 years of development and excitement since her first issue in July 1925.According to archived documents （CMS Editorial Committee,1925）,AMS was founded to report the research findings of Chinese meteorologists,record their recommendations for improving meteorological services,and share their common meteorological interests in order to promote the growth of AMS such that more members could be inspired to conduct atmospheric research and meteorological knowledge would be better disseminated to and benefit the general public.By upholding and carrying forward this purpose,AMS has published many highly valuable scientific papers.Some could be treated as classical articles,which have produced important influences on both domestic and international meteorological communities and the related fields.     

改革拓展 真抓实干 奋力谱写龙江现代化气象事业科学发展新篇章

2013年,深入学习和全面贯彻落实党的十八大精神,以科学发展为主题,以转变发展方式为主线,以提高发展质量和效益为中心,坚持公共气象发展方向,立足省情特点,突出发展特色,全面推进气象现代化,大力提升气象业务、基层基础工作和持续协调发展能力;全力做好国家粮食安全、森林和生态环     

Obituary In Memory of Dr. Peter James LAMB（21 June 1947-28 May 2014）

Dr. Peter James LAMB, Editor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters （AOSL）; George Lynn Cross Research Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oklahoma; Director, NOAA Cooperative Institute of Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, passed away in his home in Norman, Oklahoma on 28 May 2014. He was born on 21 June 1947 in Nelson, New Zealand and arrived in the United States in 1971.     

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS ON INTENSITY CHANGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC

55-year (1949 - 2003) data sets are used to study the statistical characteristics in intensity change of the tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific. According to the mathematical meaning of average value and standard deviation, the abruptly intensifying, gradually intensifying, stable intensity, gradually weakening and abruptly weakening of TC intensity are defined and the statistical characteristics, such as inter-decadal variation, inter-annual variation, inter-monthly variation, and regional distribution, etc. are analyzed. Main results are as follows: (1) From 1949 to 2003, there were 1886 TCs, averaging at 34.29 TCs per year. After 1995, the number of TCs dropped dramatically with less than 30 per year. 3.56% of the total were abruptly intensifying samples, and 3.31% were weakening samples. (2) For the annual mean, all but the stable group tend to decrease with the shift of decades as far as the overall change of the 6-h isallobaric process is concerned. (3) The abruptly intensifying TC seldom occurs over mid- and high-latitude area (north of 30°N) and low-latitude area and sometimes occurs around the islands and continent. Basically there is no gradually intensifying of TC over mid- and high- latitude area (north of 30°N and west of 125°E), in offshore Chinese waters. The gradually weakening and abruptly weakening TCs usually occur offshore China, west of 125 °E, but seldom over low-latitude area (0 - 5°N).     

湖北省决策气象服务系统的建设思路与实现过程

近 1 0多年来 ,决策气象服务一直被湖北省各级气象部门作为最重要的工作之一。经过全省气象科技工作者的不懈努力 ,气象决策服务在国民经济建设中发挥了独特的不可替代的重要作用 ,特别是在防汛抗旱、工农业生产决策过程中 ,其社会效益和经济效益尤为显著。因此这项工作已逐渐取得了当地党政领导和社会各界的认可。但随着国民经济持续发展和领导部门科学决策水平的不断提高 ,各级党政部门对气象服务也提出了更详尽更高的要求。如何进一步做好决策气象服务 ,更好地为当地党政部门当好参谋 ,这是摆在全省气象科技工作者面前的一项重大课题。在…     

2013年中国气候概况

2013年,全国平均降水量653.5 mm,较常年偏多4%,比2012年略偏少;冬季降水偏少,春、夏、秋三季偏多。全国平均气温较常年偏高0.6℃,为1961年以来第四暖年,较2012年偏高0.8℃;冬季气温偏低,春、夏、秋三季偏高。2013年,东亚冬季风偏强;夏季西北太平洋副热带高压强度明显偏弱;南海夏季风爆发早,结束晚,强度弱。2013年,华南前汛期开始早、结束晚、雨量多;长江中下游入梅晚、出梅早、雨量少;华北雨季早、雨量多;华西秋雨开始早、结束晚、雨量多;西南雨季开始早、结束晚、雨量少。2013年,我国暴雨、台风和高温热浪等气象灾害比较突出,局部地区灾情重。总体来看,2013年气象灾害为中等年份,直接经济损失偏重,死亡失踪人数和受灾面积均偏少。