Convergence of realization-based statistics to model-based statistics for the LU unconditional simulation algorithm: some numerical tests

 In geostatistics, stochastic simulation is often used either as an improved interpolation algorithm or as a measure of the spatial uncertainty. Hence, it is crucial to assess how fast realization-based statistics converge towards model-based statistics (i.e. histogram, variogram) since in theory such a match is guaranteed only on average over a number of realizations. This can be strongly affected by the random number generator being used. Moreover, the usual assumption of independence among simulated realizations of a random process may be affected by the random number generator used. Simulation results, obtained by using three different random number generators implemented in Geostatistical Software Library (GSLib), are compared. Some practical aspects are pointed out and some suggestions are given to users of the unconditional LU simulation method.     

Mixed deposits of complex magmatic and phreatomagmatic volcanism: an example from Crater Hill,Auckland, New Zealand

 A series of alternating phreatomagmatic ("wet") and magmatic ("dry") basaltic pyroclastic deposits forming the Crater Hill tuff ring in New Zealand contains one unit (M1) which can only be interpreted as the products of mixing of ejecta from simultaneous wet and dry explosions at different portions of a multiple vent system. The principal characteristics of M1 are (a) rapid lateral changes in the thicknesses of, and proportions in juvenile components in individual beds, and (b) wide ranges of juvenile clast densities in every sample. M1 appears to have been associated with an elongate source of highly variable and fluctuating magma : water ratios and magma discharge rates. This contrasts with the only other documented mixed (wet and dry) basaltic pyroclastic deposits where mixing from two point sources of quite different but stable character has been inferred. Received: July 11, 1995 / Accepted: February 13, 1996     

Distribution and significance of crystalline, perlitic and vesicular textures in the Ordovician Garth Tuff (Wales)

 Diverse spherulitic and granular crystalline fabrics, perlitic textures and fabrics related to the growth and migration of vesicles occur in the Garth Tuff, a largely welded Ordovician ignimbrite. Defining the distribution of such textures helps to constrain the ignimbrite's cooling and degassing history. Suites of spherulitic and perlitic textures closely reflect variation in cooling rates. Seven facies are defined based on the style and intensity of crystallisation: (1) a medium to coarsely crystalline, equigranular facies; (2) an intensely spherulitic facies; (3) a sparsely spherulitic facies; (4) a pectinate facies; (5) a microcrystalline to cryptocrystalline, equigranular facies; (6) a lithophysal facies; and (7) a transitional perlite–pectinate facies. Textural changes from facies 1 to 5 reflect progressively higher cooling rates. Facies 1 occurs in proximal settings in the ignimbrite's core. Facies 2 to 5 successively envelop facies 1, with facies 2 becoming the dominant fabric in the ignimbrite's core in medial settings. Facies 5 is typically developed in the originally glassy perlitic zones at the ignimbrite's welded margins. Crystallisation under hydrous conditions is reflected by second-boiling textures in the sporadically developed lithophysal facies. The seventh facies reflects a subtle interplay between cooling, hydration and crystallisation which locally prevented perlitic fracturing. The distribution of amygdales reflects patterns of volatile migration and entrapment. In the lower levels of the ignimbrite, amygdales occur in irregular concentrations or rare subvertical pipe-like structures. Pipe-like structures attest to fumarolic activity while the ignimbrite was in a rheomorphic state. Amygdales are widespread and evenly distributed in the upper levels of the ignimbrite. However, the top of the welding profile is characterised by a thin, poorly vesiculated, originally vitrophyric horizon that abruptly caps an intense concentration of amygdales. Ductile and brittle fabrics developed during the upward migration of gas. Microscopic drag folds occur around some amygdales. Jigsaw-fit to clast-rotated breccias originated through both late-stage pneumatic fracturing and autobrecciation. Vaporisation of water at the flow base provided a significant source of volatiles in addition to gas released during cooling and crystallisation. Secondary alteration has enhanced or modified some fabrics. Perlitic zones were susceptible to patchy chlorite–sericite–carbonate diagenetic alteration. Diagenesis and metamorphism have contributed to the infilling of vesicles. Received: 22 August 1997 / Accepted: 24 June 1998     

Tephra-fall deposits from the 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Alaska: implications of clast textures for eruptive processes

 The 1992 eruption of Crater Peak, Mount Spurr, Alaska, involved three subplinian tephra-producing events of similar volume and duration. The tephra consists of two dense juvenile clast types that are identified by color, one tan and one gray, of similar chemistry, mineral assemblage, and glass composition. In two of the eruptive events, the clast types are strongly stratified with tan clasts dominating the basal two thirds of the deposits and gray clasts the upper one third. Tan clasts have average densities between 1.5 and 1.7 g/cc and vesicularities (phenocryst free) of approximately 42%. Gray clasts have average densities between 2.1 and 2.3 g/cc, and vesicularities of approximately 20%; both contain abundant microlites. Average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (13–15 μm) in gray clasts in the upper layer are similar regardless of eruptive event (and therefore the repose time between them) and are larger than average maximum plagioclase microlite lengths (9–11 μm) in the tan clasts in the lower layer. This suggests that microlite growth is a response to eruptive processes and not to magma reservoir heterogeneity or dynamics. Furthermore, we suggest that the low vesicularities of the clasts are due to syneruptive magmatic degassing resulting in microlitic growth prior to fragmentation and not to quenching of clasts by external groundwater. Received: 5 September 1997 / Accepted: 1 February 1998     

Reappraisal of the 1982 eruptions of El Chichón Volcano, Chiapas, Mexico: new data from proximal deposits

 Additional data from proximal areas enable a reconstruction of the stratigraphy and the eruptive chronology of phases III and IV of the 1982 eruption of El Chichón Volcano. Phase III began on 4 April at 0135 GMT with a powerful hydromagmatic explosion that generated radially fast-moving (∼100 ms^–1) pyroclastic clouds that produced a surge deposit (S1). Due to the sudden reduction in the confining pressure the process continued by tapping of magma from a deeper source, causing a new explosion. The ejected juvenile material mixed with large amounts of fragmented dome and wall rock, which were dispersed laterally in several pulses as lithic-rich block-and-ash flow (F1). Partial evacuation of juvenile material from the magmatic system prompted the entrance of external water to generate a series of hydromagmatic explosions that dispersed moisture-rich surge clouds and small-volume block-and-ash flows (IU) up to distances of 3 km from the crater. The eruption continued by further decompression of the magmatic system, with the ensuing emission of smaller amounts of gas-rich magma which, with the strong erosion of the volcanic conduit, formed a lithic-rich Plinian column that deposited fallout layer B. Associated with the widening of the vent, an increase in the effective density of the uprising column took place, causing its collapse. Block-and-ash flows arising from the column collapse traveled along valleys as a dense laminar flow (F2). In some places, flow regime changes due to topographic obstacles promoted transformation into a turbulent surge (S2) which attained minimum velocities of approximately 77 ms^–1 near the volcano. The process continued with the formation of a new column on 4 April at 1135 GMT (phase IV) that emplaced fall deposit C and was followed by hydromagmatic explosions which produced pyroclastic surges (S3). Received: 13 May 1996 / Accepted: 12 November 1996     

Kinematic significance of mingling-rolling structures in lava flows: a case study from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea)

 A basaltic andesite lava flow from Porri Volcano (Salina, Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) is composed of two different magmas. Magma A (51 vol.% of crystals) has a dacitic glass composition, and magma B (18 vol.% of crystals), a basaltic glass composition. Magma B is hosted in A and consists of sub-spherical enclaves and boudin-like, banding and rolling structures (RS). Four types of RS have been recognized: σ–type;δ–type; complex σ-δ–types and transitional structures between sub-spherical enclaves and rolling structures. An analysis of the RS has been performed in order to reconstruct the flow kinematics and the mechanism of flow emplacement. Rolling structures have been selected in three sites located at different distances from the vent. In all sites most RS show the same sense of shear. Kinematic analysis of RS allows the degree of flow non-coaxiality to be determined. The non-coaxiality is expressed by the kinematic vorticity number Wk, a measure of the ratio Sr between pure shear strain rate and simple shear strain rate. The values of Wk calculated from the measured shapes of microscopic RS increase with increasing distance from the vent, from approximately 0.5 to 0.9. Results of the structural analysis reveal that the RS formed during the early–intermediate stage of flow emplacement. They represent originally sub-spherical enclaves deformed at low shear strain. At higher strain, RS deformed to give boudin-like and stretched banding structures. Results of the kinematic analysis suggest that high viscosity lava flows are heterogeneous non-ideal shear flows in which the degree of non-coaxiality increases with the distance from the vent. In the vent area, deformation is intermediate between simple shear and pure shear. Farther from the vent, deformation approaches ideal simple shear. Lateral extension processes occur only in the near-vent zone, where they develop in response to the lateral push of magma extruded from the vent. Lateral shortening processes develop in the distal zone and record the gravity-driven movement of the lava. The lava flow advanced by two main mechanisms, lateral translation and rolling motion. Lateral translation equals rolling near the vent, while rolling motion prevailed in the distal zones. Received: 6 November 1997 / Accepted: 29 November 1997     

Dynamics of carbon dioxide emissions,crystallization, and magma ascent: hypotheses,theory, and applications to volcano monitoring at Mount St. Helens

 Measurements of CO₂ fluxes from open-vent volcanos are rare, yet may offer special capabilities for monitoring volcanos and forecasting activity. The measured fluxes of CO₂ and SO₂ from Mount St. Helens decreased from July through November 1980, but the record includes variations of CO₂/SO₂ in the emitted gas and episodes of greatly increased fluxes of CO₂. We propose that the CO₂ flux variations reflect two gas components: (a) a component whose flux decreased in proportion to 1/ √t with a CO₂/SO₂ mass ratio of 1.7, and (b) a residual flux of CO₂ consisting of short-lived, large peaks with a CO₂/SO₂ mass ratio of 15. We propose two hypotheses: (a) the 1/ √t dependence was generated by crystallization in a deep magma body at rates governed by diffusion-limited heat transfer, and (b) the gas component with the higher CO₂/SO₂ was released from ascending magma, which replenished the same magma body. The separation of the total CO₂ flux into contributions from known processes permits quantitative inferences about the replenishment and crystallization rates of open-system magma bodies beneath volcanos. The flux separations obtained by using two gas sources with distinct CO₂/SO₂ ratios and a peak minus background approach to obtain the CO₂ contributions from an intermittent source and a continuously emitting source are similar. The flux separation results support the hypothesis that the second component was generated by episodic magma ascent and replenishment of the magma body. The diffusion-limited crystallization hypothesis is supported by the decay of minimum CO₂ and SO₂ fluxes with 1/ √t after 1 July 1980. We infer that the magma body at Mount St. Helens was replenished at an average rate (2.8×10⁶m³d^–1) which varied by less than 5% during July, August, and September 1980. The magma body volume (2.4–3.0 km³) in early 1982 was estimated by integrating a crystallization rate function inferred from CO₂ fluxes to maximum times (20±4 years) estimated from the increase of sample crystallinity with time. These new volcanic gas flux separation methods and the existence of relations among the CO₂ flux, crystallization rates, and magma body replenishment rates yield new information about the dynamics of an open-vent, replenished magma body. Received: 15 February 1995 / Accepted: 30 March 1996     

Sulfur,chlorine, and fluorine degassing and atmospheric loading by the 1783–1784 AD Laki (Skaftár Fires) eruption in Iceland

 The 1783–1784 Laki tholeiitic basalt fissure eruption in Iceland was one of the greatest atmospheric pollution events of the past 250 years, with widespread effects in the northern hemisphere. The degassing history and volatile budget of this event are determined by measurements of pre-eruption and residual contents of sulfur, chlorine, and fluorine in the products of all phases of the eruption. In fissure eruptions such as Laki, degassing occurs in two stages: by explosive activity or lava fountaining at the vents, and from the lava as it flows away from the vents. Using the measured sulfur concentrations in glass inclusions in phenocrysts and in groundmass glasses of quenched eruption products, we calculate that the total accumulative atmospheric mass loading of sulfur dioxide was 122 Mt over a period of 8 months. This volatile release is sufficient to have generated ∼250 Mt of H₂SO₄ aerosols, an amount which agrees with an independent estimate of the Laki aerosol yield based on atmospheric turbidity measurements. Most of this volatile mass (∼60 wt.%) was released during the first 1.5 months of activity. The measured chlorine and fluorine concentrations in the samples indicate that the atmospheric loading of hydrochloric acid and hydrofluoric acid was ∼7.0 and 15.0 Mt, respectively. Furthermore, ∼75% of the volatile mass dissolved by the Laki magma was released at the vents and carried by eruption columns to altitudes between 6 and 13 km. The high degree of degassing at the vents is attributed to development of a separated two-phase flow in the upper magma conduit, and implies that high-discharge basaltic eruptions such as Laki are able to loft huge quantities of gas to altitudes where the resulting aerosols can reside for months or even 1–2 years. The atmospheric volatile contribution due to subsequent degassing of the Laki lava flow is only 18 wt.% of the total dissolved in the magma, and these emissions were confined to the lowest regions of the troposphere and therefore important only over Iceland. This study indicates that determination of the amount of sulfur degassed from the Laki magma batch by measurements of sulfur in the volcanic products (the petrologic method) yields a result which is sufficient to account for the mass of aerosols estimated by other methods. Received: 30 May 1995 / Accepted: 19 April 1996     

Petrologic investigations of the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand: formation of discrete and small magma pockets and their intermittent discharge

 Ruapehu volcano erupted intermittently between September and November 1995, and June and July 1996, producing juvenile andesitic scoria and bombs. The volcanic activity was characterized by small, sequential phreatomagmatic and strombolian eruptions. The petrography and geochemistry of dated samples from 1995 (initial magmatic eruption of 18 September 1995, and two larger events on 23 September and 11 October), and from 1996 (initial and larger eruptions on 17–18 June) suggest that episodes of magma mixing occurred in separate magma pockets within the upper part of the magma plumbing system, producing juvenile andesitic magma by mixing between relatively high (1000–1200  °C)- and low (∼1000  °C)- temperature (T) end members. Oscillatory zoning in pyroxene phenocrysts suggests that repeated mixing events occurred prior to and during the 1995 and 1996 eruptions. Although the 1995 and 1996 andesitic magmas are products of similar mixing processes, they display chronological variations in phenocryst clinopyroxene, matrix glass, and whole-rock compositions. A comparison of the chemistry of magnesian clinopyroxene in the four tephras indicates that, from 18 September through June 1996, the tephras were derived from at least two discrete high-temperature (high-T) batches of magma. Crystals of magnesian clinopyroxene in the 23 September and 11 October tephras appear to be derived from different high-T magma batches. Whole-rock and matrix-glass compositions of all tephras are consistent with their derivation from distinct mixed melts. We propose that, prior to 1995 there was a shallow low-temperature (low-T) magma storage system comprising crystal-rich mush and remnant magma from preceding eruptive episodes. Crystal clots and gabbroic inclusions in the tephras attest to the existence of relict crystal mush. At least two discrete high-T magmas were then repeatedly injected into the mush zone, forming discrete and mixed magma pockets within the shallow system. The intermittent 1995 and 1996 eruptions sequentially tapped these magma pockets. Received: 1 April 1998 / Accepted: 22 December 1998     

Products and processes in Pliocene–Recent, subaqueous to emergent volcanism in the Antarctic Peninsula: examples of englacial Surtseyan volcano construction

 Pliocene–Recent volcanic outcrops at Seal Nunataks and Beethoven Peninsula (Antarctic Peninsula) are remnants of several monogenetic volcanoes formed by eruption of vesiculating basaltic magma into shallow water, in an englacial environment. The diversity of sedimentary and volcanic lithofacies present in the Antarctic Peninsula outcrops provides a clear illustration of the wide range of eruptive, transportational and depositional processes which are associated with englacial Surtseyan volcanism. Early-formed pillow lava and glassy breccia, representing a pillow volcano stage of construction, are draped by tephra erupted explosively during a tuff cone stage. The tephra was resedimented around the volcano flanks, mainly by coarse-grained sediment gravity flows. Fine-grained lithofacies are rare, and fine material probably bypassed the main volcanic edifice, accumulating in the surrounding englacial basin. The pattern of sedimentation records variations in eruption dynamics. Products of continuous-uprush eruptions are thought to be represented by stacks of poorly bedded gravelly sandstone, whereas better bedded, lithologically more diverse sequences accumulated during periods of quiescence or effusive activity. Evidence for volcano flank failure is common. In Seal Nunataks, subaerial lithofacies (mainly lavas and cinder cone deposits) are volumetrically minor and occur at a similar stratigraphical position to pillow lava, suggesting that glacial lake drainage may have occurred prior to or during deposition of the subaerial lithofacies. By contrast, voluminous subaerial effusion in Beethoven Peninsula led to the development of laterally extensive stratified glassy breccias representing progradation of hyaloclastite deltas. Received: 5 February 1996 / Accepted: 17 January 1997     

Can global sensitivity analysis steer the implementation of models for environmental assessments and decision-making?

 We illustrate a method of global sensitivity analysis and we test it on a preliminary case study in the field of environmental assessment to quantify uncertainty importance in poorly-known model parameters and spatially referenced input data. The focus of the paper is to show how the methodology provides guidance to improve the quality of environmental assessment practices and decision support systems employed in environmental policy. Global sensitivity analysis, coupled with uncertainty analysis, is a tool to assess the robustness of decisions, to understand whether the current state of knowledge on input data and parametric uncertainties is sufficient to enable a decision to be taken. The methodology is applied to a preliminary case study, which is based on a numerical model that employs GIS-based soil data and expert consultation to evaluate an index that joins environmental and economic aspects of land depletion. The index is used as a yardstick by decision-makers involved in the planning of highways to identify the route that minimises the overall impact.     

Volcaniclastic debris-flow occurrences in the Campania region (Southern Italy) and their relation to Holocene–Late Pleistocene pyroclastic fall deposits: implications for large-scale hazard mapping

The Campania Region (southern Italy) is characterized by the frequent occurrence of volcaniclastic debris flows that damage property and loss of life (more than 170 deaths between 1996 and 1999). Historical investigation allowed the identification of more than 500 events during the last four centuries; in particular, more than half of these occurred in the last 100 years, causing hundreds of deaths. The aim of this paper is to quantify debris-flow hazard potential in the Campania Region. To this end, we compared several elements such as the thickness distribution of pyroclastic fall deposits from the last 18 ka of the Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields volcanoes, the slopes of relieves, and the historical record of volcaniclastic debris flows from A.D. 1500 to the present. Results show that flow occurrence is not only a function of the cumulative thickness of past pyroclastic fall deposits but also depends on the age of emplacement. Deposits younger than 10 ka (Holocene eruptions) apparently increase the risk of debris flows, while those older than 10 ka (Late Pleistocene eruptions) seem to play a less prominent role, which is probably due to different climatic conditions, and therefore different rates of erosion of pyroclastic falls between the Holocene and the Late Pleistocene. Based on the above considerations, we compiled a large-scale debris-flow hazard map of the study area in which five main hazard zones are identified: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high.     

Nature and origin of cone-forming volcanic breccias in the Te Herenga Formation, Ruapehu, New Zealand

 Volcanic breccias form large parts of composite volcanoes and are commonly viewed as containing pyroclastic fragments emplaced by pyroclastic processes or redistributed as laharic deposits. Field study of cone-forming breccias of the andesitic middle Pleistocene Te Herenga Formation on Ruapehu volcano, New Zealand, was complemented by paleomagnetic laboratory investigation permitting estimation of emplacement temperatures of constituent breccia clasts. The observations and data collected suggest that most breccias are autoclastic deposits. Five breccia types and subordinate, coherent lava-flow cores constitute nine, unconformity-bounded constructional units. Two types of breccia are gradational with lava-flow cores. Red breccias gradational with irregularly shaped lava-flow cores were emplaced at temperatures in excess of 580  °C and are interpreted as aa flow breccias. Clasts in gray breccia gradational with tabular lava-flow cores, and in some places forming down-slope-dipping avalanche bedding beneath flows, were emplaced at varying temperatures between 200 and 550  °C and are interpreted as forming part of block lava flows. Three textural types of breccia are found in less intimate association with lava-flow cores. Matrix-poor, well-sorted breccia can be traced upslope to lava-flow cores encased in autoclastic breccia. Unsorted boulder breccia comprises constructional units lacking significant exposed lava-flow cores. Clasts in both of these breccia types have paleomagnetic properties generally similar to those of the gray breccias gradational with lava-flow cores; they indicate reorientation after acquisition of some, or all, magnetization and ultimate emplacement over a range of temperatures between 100 and 550  °C. These breccias are interpreted as autoclastic breccias associated with block lava flows. Matrix-poor, well-sorted breccia formed by disintegration of lava flows on steep slopes and unsorted boulder breccia is interpreted to represent channel-floor and levee breccias for block lava flows that continued down slope. Less common, matrix-rich, stratified tuff breccias consisting of angular blocks, minor scoria, and a conspicuously well-sorted ash matrix were generally emplaced at ambient temperature, although some deposits contain clasts possibly emplaced at temperatures as high as 525  °C. These breccias are interpreted as debris-flow and sheetwash deposits with a dominant pyroclastic matrix and containing clasts likely of mixed autoclastic and pyroclastic origin. Pyroclastic deposits have limited preservation potential on the steep, proximal slopes of composite volcanoes. Likewise, these steep slopes are more likely sites of erosion and transport by channeled or unconfined runoff rather than depositional sites for reworked volcaniclastic debris. Autoclastic breccias need not be intimately associated with coherent lava flows in single outcrops, and fine matrix can be of autoclastic rather than pyroclastic origin. In these cases, and likely many other cases, the alternation of coherent lava flows and fragmental deposits defining composite volcanoes is better described as interlayered lava-flow cores and cogenetic autoclastic breccias, rather than as interlayered lava flows and pyroclastic beds. Reworked deposits are probably insignificant components of most proximal cone-forming sequences. Received: 1 October 1998 / Accepted: 28 December 1998     

GOCE Quick-Look Gravity Solution: Application of the Semianalytic Approach in the Case of Data Gaps and Non-Repeat Orbits

The satellite mission GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer), the first Core Mission of the Earth Explorer Programme funded by ESA (European Space Agency), is dedicated to the precise modelling of the Earth's gravity field, with its launch planned for 2006. The mathematical models for parameterizing the Earth's gravity field are based on a series expansion into spherical harmonics, yielding a huge number of unknown coefficients. Their computation leads to the solution of very large normal equation systems. An efficient way to handle these equation systems is the so-called semianalytic or lumped coefficients approach, which theoretically requires an uninterrupted, continuous time series of observations, recorded along an exact circular repeat orbit. In this paper the consequences of violating these conditions are analyzed. The effects of an interrupted observation stream onto the estimated spherical harmonic coefficients are demonstrated, and an iterative strategy, which reduces the negative influence depending on the characteristics of the data gaps, is proposed. Additionally, the impact of an imperfectly closing orbit (non-repeat orbit) on the gravity field model is analyzed, and a strategy to minimize the corresponding errors is presented. The applicability of the semianalytic approach also to a joint inversion of satellite-to-satellite tracking data in high-low mode (hl-SST) and satellite gravity gradiometry (SGG) observations is demonstrated, where the analysis of the former component is based on the energy conservation law. Several realistic case studies prove that the semianalytic approach is a feasible tool to generate quick-look gravity solutions, i.e. fast coefficient estimates using only partial data sets. This quick-look analysis shall be able to detect potential distortions of statistical significance (e.g. systematic errors) in the input data, and to give a fast feedback to the GOCE mission control.