Critical moments? Life transitions and energy biographies

Family and youth research has highlighted the importance of lifecourse transitions, illustrating how they can have a substantial impact on people’s everyday lives and anticipated futures. Given their apparent significance, it is surprising that relatively little attention has been paid to life transitions – particularly unexpected ones – to explore how they can impact upon everyday energy use. This is a central concern of Energy Biographies project. The project’s qualitative longitudinal design makes an original contribution, affording a detailed view of how transitions unfold and their significance for energy demand and environmental action. Central to elucidating these issues is the concept of ‘linked lives’, recognising that people live interdependently. In this paper, we explore the accounts of three participants who experienced one or more life transitions during the course of the project, in order to consider the impacts of these events (both planned and unanticipated) on their everyday energy use and environmental actions as part of their linked lives with others.     

Greenhouse gases mitigation against climate change: United States-Mexico border study case

Solar radiation is one of the most important energy resources of our planet. The interest in its use as a renewable and clean energy to mitigate the greenhouse gases (GHG) effects has increased significantly. This paper evaluates the measurements of global solar radiation and its energy potential and presents a comparison between both of them, as an example of the effort to reduce GHG emissions. The measurements were made with pyranometers installed in the city of Mexicali, Baja California, located in northwestern Mexico, and the city of Yuma, Arizona, located in the southwestern United States. Separated by a distance of 96 km, both cities have a sustained development and are climatically similar, since they present numerous sunny days, extreme hot temperatures and little precipitation. The results presented show differences in their behavior and in the solar radiation measurement values, especially for the critical spring and summer seasons, with values 15.73% (0.042 kW/m²) higher in Mexicali with respect to Yuma. Energy power is estimated, and it is discussed with some variables as global solar radiation, rainfall, air temperature, relative humidity and climatology of clear, partly cloudy, and cloudy days. With this estimation, the solar energy used and GHG avoided is projected for Mexicali. It is assessed that 291 tons of GHG are prevented. The Mexicali values of potential energy are higher than those of Yuma; therefore, this solar and energy comparative study provides reasons to develop these technologies in Mexico, but solar technologies should be deployed also in Yuma. The measured data at the regional level demonstrate their importance, and the relevance of the proposed mitigation strategy for climate change.     

The relationship between fire behaviour measures and community loss: an exploratory analysis for developing a bushfire severity scale

Current fire danger scales do not adequately reflect the potential destructive force of a bushfire in Australia and, therefore, do not provide fire prone communities with an adequate warning for the potential loss of human life and property. To determine options for developing a bushfire severity scale based on community impact and whether a link exists between the energy release rate (power) of a fire and community loss, this paper reviewed observations of 79 wildfires (from 1939 to 2009) across Victoria and other southern states of Australia. A methodology for estimating fire power based on fuel loading, fire size and progression rate is presented. McArthur??s existing fire danger indices (FDIs) as well as fuel- and slope-adjusted FDIs were calculated using fire weather data. Analysis of possible relationships between fire power, FDIs, rate of spread and Byram??s fireline intensity and community loss was performed using exposure as a covariate. Preliminary results showed that a stronger relationship exists between community loss and the power of the fire than between loss and FDI, although fuel-adjusted FDI was also a good predictor of loss. The database developed for this study and the relationships established are essential for undertaking future studies that require observations of past fire behaviour and losses and also to form the basis of developing a new severity scale.     

Demanding distances in later life leisure travel

This article draws on a serial interview study of later life leisure travel in the UK to question how a wider trend towards holidaying further afield has come to feature in the lives of three cohorts of older Britons. Drawing on theories of social practice that see notions of desirable activity as produced through the interplay of opportunities to engage in relevant activities, collective apprehensions of what doing these activities should involve, and the physical capacities necessarily required to undertake them, we examine their leisure travel in two regards. Firstly, we consider how evolving social and infrastructural arrangements are effectively demanding greater distance travel in the sense that they shape what socially desirable leisure travel is taken to entail at certain points in time. Secondly, we examine how distance travel may be physically demanding in the sense that older bodies may be particularly likely to face certain challenges when they travel. This strategy allows us to examine how broader social expectations regarding distance travel have become part of the lives of older Britons and the manner in which they are currently reconciling them with both the anticipation and the experience of bodily ageing. We end with the implications of our findings for the future of later life leisure travel as a potential hotspot of growing societal energy demand and the further application of social practice theory in view of the evidently variable capacities of human bodies.     

Geotechnical Risk Assessment of Mine Development Intersections with Respect to Mining Sequence

Mine developments such as haulage drifts and their intersections with cross-cuts are the only stope access in sub-level stoping mining system. Thus, they must remain stable during their service life. Haulage drift instability could lead to serious consequences such as: production delay, damage to equipment, loss of reserves and high operational cost. The goal of this paper is the stability of mine developments with respect to mining sequence with focus on the performance of haulage drift intersection during the production plan. A case study, the #1 Shear East orebody at Vale’s Garson Mine in Sudbury Ontario will be examined in this paper. A three-dimensional, elastoplastic, finite difference code (FLAC3D) is used for this study. The extent of strength-to-stress ratio corresponds to Mohr–Coulomb strength-to-stress ratio of 1.4 is used as failure evaluation criterion. The unsatisfactory performance is reached when the extent of strength-to-stress ratio exceeds the anchorage limit of the rockbolt. Stochastic analysis; adopting point-estimate method, is then employed with the numerical modelling to tackle the inherent uncertainty associated with rockmass properties. Then, the probability of instability at various mining steps is estimated for the roof and north wall of the studied intersection. The cost of consequence models is introduced to provide an economical solution if the intersection failed, blocked or damaged. Furthermore, the geotechnical risk associated with the instability of mine development intersection is estimated using risk-indexing tool. The results are presented and categorized in terms of probability, cost of consequence and risk-index at various mining stages.     

Methods for the estimation of loss of life due to floods: a literature review and a proposal for a new method

This article deals with methods for the estimation of loss of life due to flooding. These methods can be used to assess the flood risks and to identify mitigation strategies. The first part of this article contains a comprehensive review of existing literature. Methods have been developed for different types of floods in different regions. In general these methods relate the loss of life in the flooded area to the flood characteristics and the possibilities for evacuation and shelter. An evaluation showed that many of the existing methods do not take into account all of the most relevant determinants of loss of life and that they are often to a limited extent based on empirical data of historical flood events. In the second part of the article, a new method is proposed for the estimation of loss of life caused by the flooding of low-lying areas protected by flood defences. An estimate of the loss of life due to a flood event can be given based on: (1) information regarding the flood characteristics, (2) an analysis of the exposed population and evacuation, and (3) an estimate of the mortality amongst the exposed population. By analysing empirical information from historical floods, new mortality functions have been developed. These relate the mortality amongst the exposed population to the flood characteristics. Comparison of the outcomes of the proposed method with information from historical flood events shows that it gives an accurate approximation of the number of observed fatalities during these events. The method is applied to assess the consequences for a large-scale flooding of the area of South Holland, in the Netherlands. It is estimated that the analysed coastal flood scenario can lead to approximately 3,200 fatalities in this area.

Potential rock fall source areas identification and rock fall propagation in the province of Potenza territory using an empirically distributed approach

In this work an overview of the potential rock fall source areas and propagation assessment in the Province of Potenza territory has been presented. The rock fall process is characterized by two steps: the detachment of blocks and subsequently their propagation along the slope. The adopted methodology, used for the first time in the study area, and the software Histofit and FlowR have been very useful tools for the preliminary assessment of rock fall susceptibility at a regional scale, in particular because they have required low data of the study area. Only the DEM may be sufficient together with an appropriate choice of the input parameters and algorithms, that is to say: calculation method, directions algorithm, inertial algorithm and friction loss function. The output of the model is a map of the rock fall source areas, the propagation probabilities and the propagation kinetic energy. The results show that the adopted methodology is successful for the identification of rock fall source areas at a regional scale and the propagation probability obtaining an interesting rock fall susceptibility map.     

Estimation of dynamic friction and movement history of large landslides

We performed seismic waveform inversions and numerical landslide simulations of deep-seated landslides in Japan to understand the dynamic evolution of friction of the landslides. By comparing the forces obtained from a numerical simulation to those resolved from seismic waveform inversion, the coefficient of friction during sliding was well-constrained between 0.3 and 0.4 for landslides with volumes of 2–8 ×10⁶ m³. We obtained similar coefficients of friction for landslides with similar scale and geology, and they are consistent with the empirical relationship between the volume and dynamic coefficient of friction obtained from the past studies. This hybrid method of the numerical simulation and seismic waveform inversion shows the possibility of reproducing or predicting the movement of a large-scale landslide. Our numerical simulation allows us to estimate the velocity distribution for each time step. The maximum velocity at the center of mass is 12–36 m/s and is proportional to the square root of the elevation change at the center of mass of the landslide body, which suggests that they can be estimated from the initial DEMs. About 20% of the total potential energy is transferred to the kinetic energy in our volume range. The combination of the seismic waveform inversion and the numerical simulation helps to obtain the well-constrained dynamic coefficients of friction and velocity distribution during sliding, which will be used in numerical models to estimate the hazard of potential landslides.     

From bone to pixel—fossil restoration and reconstruction with digital techniques

Fossils represent the only physical evidence for the existence of extinct life, and hold a vast potential to reconstruct organisms and ecosystems vanished a long time ago. Yet fossils are not as complete as they might appear in museum exhibits, documentaries or Hollywood blockbusters. Millions of years of fossilization have left their marks on the fossils, which might no longer resemble the condition of the organism when it was alive. A key challenge in palaeontology is therefore to restore and reconstruct the morphology of fossils. Luckily, novel digital visualization and reconstruction techniques offer powerful tools to bring extinct organisms back to life in unprecedented detail.     

我国新能源发展障碍与应对: 全球现状评述

以化石能源为主的能源消费模式已经难以满足可持续发展的要求, 改善能源消费结构、减少对化石能源的依赖势在必行。在此背景下, 发展环境友好、地域分布相对均衡且潜力无限的新能源成为各国共识。新能源包括太阳能、风能、生物质能、地热能、海洋能、氢能、天然气水合物、核能、核聚变能等共9种类型。由于种类繁多、资源禀赋和物化特征差异悬殊, 开发利用新能源需要面对比化石能源复杂得多的规划、管理和技术问题。如果措施不当, 不但会造成经济损失, 而且可能会威胁到人类安全。在全面深入了解全球新能源发展现状的基础上, 认真总结各国经验教训, 制定合理的发展战略, 是开发利用新能源的先行性工作, 具有重要意义。本文对国内外新能源资源情况、技术水平、总体发展现状进行分析, 并对我国新能源发展过程中的制约因素进行深入剖析, 结合我国国情提出新能源发展的对策建议。     

Energetic analysis of global topography

Diagrams of the various distributions of the potential energy of the continental and oceanic-bottom topography as a quantitative indices of energy consumption by tectonic processes have been calculated and plotted for the first time on the basis of high-resolution ETOPO 2′ digital data on a 2′ × 2 ′ uniform network with height intervals of 100 m. The potential energy of the continents and oceanic bottom is mainly stored in mountainous regions of Asia and South America with an anomalous type of energy distribution and in mid-oceanic ridges, respectively. The topography of the oceanic bottom bears five times more energy than the continental topography. With allowance for the isostatic compensation of denudation, the bulk reserve of the potential energy of the global topography is estimated at 10³³ erg, a value which amounts to only an insignificant fraction of other items in the energetic budget of the Earth. Fifty percent of this energy has been gained over the last 70 Ma. Currently, the rate of accumulation of the potential energy of the topography is 10²⁵ erg/yr, i.e., 1000 times less than the bulk geothermal flow and 10 times less than energy released by all earthquakes during a year. So far, there are no grounds to bind the potential energy of the Earth’s topography with a specific source.     

Methodology for benefit–cost analysis of seismic codes

A number of high-profile seismic events have occurred in recent years, with a wide variation in the resulting economic damage and loss of life. This variation has been attributed in part to the stringency of seismic building codes implemented in different regions. Using the HAZUS Earthquake Model, a benefit?Ccost analysis was performed on varying levels of standard buildings codes for Haiti and Puerto Rico. The methodology computes expected loss assuming a Poisson event process with lognormally distributed event magnitude and idealized damage?Cmagnitude response functions. The event frequency and magnitude distributions are estimated from the historical record, while the damage functions are fit using HAZUS simulation results for events with systematically varying magnitudes and different seismic code levels. To validate the approach, a single-event analysis was conducted using alternative building codes and mean magnitude earthquakes. A probabilistic analysis was then used to evaluate the long-term expected value for alternative levels of building codes. To account for the relationship between lives saved and economic loss, the implicit cost of saving a life is computed for each code option. It was found that in the two areas studied, the expected loss of life was reduced the most by use of high seismic building code levels, but lower levels of seismic building code were more cost-effective when considering only building damages and the costs for code implementation. The methodology presented is meant to provide a basic framework for the future development of an economic-behavioral model for code adoption.     

A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability

Floods account for more than half of the global hydrometeorological risks. Severe floods cause significant economic shocks and loss of lives, particularly for developing countries such as Jamaica. There is need for more information on the present and projected flood risks to justify macro-scale planning for climate change adaptation and facilitate the decision-making processes. In this study, a catalogue of 198 flood events occurring between 1678 and 2010 is compiled for Jamaica and used to examine the climatology, occurrence, trends, causes and duration of the island’s severe events. The annual flood risk is estimated to be a loss of life rate of 4 persons and estimated annual damage of USD96.3 million per annum in 2010 values and approximately 0.84 % of GDP per annum. Macro-scale models for flood risks (deaths and damages) are also developed using data from the flood catalogue and maximum precipitation at the town and parish level. The models examine the relationship between flood risks (death and damages) and extreme rainfall depths and intensities. Future climate risks of loss of lives and damages are predicted to increase 11 and 9 %, respectively, to 4.4 persons and USD105.2 million per annum.     

Theoretical and experimental aspects of saving energy in fans

This study presents energy efficiency measures in fans as an important energy consumption facility in the industry and common usages by identifying the sources of energy loss and applying methods to reduce those losses, which are one of the critical issues in protecting the environment and in global warming. The carbon footprint can be lowered by reducing the energy consumption of a fan over its life cycle. The main sources of energy loss in fans such as noise, vibration, lubrication, temperature of the bearings, installation type, damper and filter, especially pulley and belt system compared to electrical variable speed drive, are theoretically and experimentally discussed. The laboratory results show that the mechanical variable speed drive is one of the critical sources of energy loss in centrifugal fans. The results also show that by changing the drive with an electrical variable speed drive, the energy usage can be substantially optimized. For instance, using an electrical variable speed drive has reduced the energy loss up to 38.5?% with regard to the speed and according to the different flow rates. Moreover, based on the results derived from the equations and figures, it can be concluded that a considerable amount of energy per year, as well as the related cost can be saved and this shall be noted particularly in industrial applications.     

Identification and prioritization of data for collection in post-earthquake surveys

During an earthquake, buildings which are vulnerable to seismic loads will be damaged, resulting in property loss and the potential for casualties. To reduce loss of life and injury, the relationship between earthquake-induced building failure and injury severity and distribution needs to be clarified. To this end, a methodology and a series of data collection forms were developed to collect pertinent data for post-event analysis and to provide a basis for structural triage in the field shortly following an earthquake for search and rescue purposes. The forms were developed in four steps: (1) identifying the variables which affect the outcome of an occupant in a damaged building; (2) classifying the variables into three levels of priority for data collection; (3) designing the forms; and (4) applying the forms to damaged buildings from past earthquakes. These forms represent a significant departure from existing forms in that they consider both casualties and building damage jointly in a consistent format. This paper describes the first two steps of the development process; a companion paper outlines the latter components.     

Discrete Element Modeling of Rock Fragmentation upon Impact in Rock Fall Analysis

A discrete element code has been used to simulate impact-induced rock fragmentation in rock fall analysis using a simplified impact model inspired by the theory of vibrations for foundations on elastic media. The impact velocity, the angle of incidence, pre-existing fractures, and the ground stiffness all play important roles in impact fragmentation. Based on the simulation results, impact fragmentation occurs locally at the impact zone without generating large fragments for a homogeneous rock block. Large fragments are generated only when there are open pre-existing fractures in the rock block or when there are fully persistent closed fractures. Softer ground tends to reduce the potential for impact fragmentation. Energy transformation and failure occur only during impact including approach and restitution stages. Friction energy loss accounts for most of the energy loss during the fragmentation process, while tensile cracking energy loss is not significant.     

《生命支持系统百科全书(EOLSS)》将于1997年问世

1997年将有一部跨国巨著——《生命支持系统百科全书(EOLSS)》与读者见面。该书将是世界上规模最大,也是最为重要的科学技术出版物之一。由美、欧、俄、中等国和地区350多位专家组成编委会,千余名专家执笔编写,全书将分50～60卷刊出,并以CD-ROM电子版本形成出版。     

广东省1960～2007年降雨侵蚀力变化趋势分析

降雨侵蚀力反映由降雨引起的土壤侵蚀的潜在能力.本文利用广东省25个站点48年(1960～2007)的日雨量资料计算了各站的降雨侵蚀力,并用Mann-Kendall(M-K)非参数检验和克里格空间插值法分析了降雨侵蚀力的时空变化规律.结果表明:广东省降雨侵蚀力的空间分布呈沿海向内陆逐渐递减的趋势.全省大部分地区的年降雨侵蚀力呈现不明显上升趋势,且存在较明显的年代际和年际变化.降雨侵蚀力的年内分布特征和降雨量分布类似,呈"双峰型",主要集中在4～9月的雨季.对于季节序列,冬季、春季和夏季大部分地区的降雨侵蚀力有不同程度的上升,秋季全省几乎所有地区呈下降趋势.汛期的降雨侵蚀力变化特征与年降雨侵蚀力相似.     

A modified approach for semi-quantitative estimation of physical vulnerability of buildings exposed to different landslide intensity scenarios

Landslides are the most common natural disasters in mountainous regions, being responsible for significant loss of life as well as damage to critical infrastructure and properties. As the world population grows, people tend to move to higher locations to construct buildings, thereby making structures vulnerable due to landslides. This paper discusses previous research on the vulnerability assessment of structures exposed to landslides and presents a modified semi-quantitative approach to assess the scenario-based physical vulnerability of buildings based on their resistance ability and landslide intensity. Resistance ability is determined by integrating expert knowledge-based resistance factors assigned to five primary building parameters. Landslide intensity matrix defining different intensity levels is proposed based on combinations of landslide velocity and volume. Physical vulnerability of buildings is estimated and classified as class I, II or III for scenario-based low to very high landslide intensity. Finally, the application of the model is illustrated with a case study of 71 buildings from Garhwal Himalayas, India.     

Earthquake losses due to ground failure

Ground shaking is widely considered to be the primary cause of damage to structures, loss of life and injuries due to earthquakes. Nonetheless, there are numerous examples of earthquakes where the losses due to earthquake-induced ground failure have been significant. Whereas ground shaking causes structural and non-structural damage, with associated loss of function and income, ground failure is less likely to cause spectacular structural collapses, but is frequently the cause of major disruptions, particularly to lifelines, which can lead to prolonged loss of function and income, even for undamaged areas.Those involved in earthquake loss modelling are currently presented with three choices with respect to the incorporation of ground failure: they can choose to ignore it, assuming that any estimation of losses caused by shaking would effectively subsume the impact of these secondary hazards; they can include ground failure in a simple manner, using published approaches based upon qualitative data and a large degree of judgement; or, they can opt for a detailed site- or region-specific assessment of damage due to ground failure, with the associated time and expense.This paper presents a summary of the principal features of earthquake losses incurred in damaging earthquakes over the last 15 years. Survey data are impartially analysed, considering both ground failure and ground shaking as sources of damage, and their relative contribution to overall damage in each section of the regional infrastructure is presented. There are many other variables influencing these contributions, including the size of the earthquake, the economic status of the affected region, local geology and terrain and the building stock, which have been considered.The findings of the study are discussed from the point of view of loss modelling and which components of a model should merit the most time and resource allocation. The general assumption that ground shaking is the principal cause of damage and loss is strongly supported by the study. However, there are a number of scenarios identified where the failure to appropriately include the effects of ground failure would lead to unrealistic loss projections. Such scenarios include the assessment of building losses in small zones rather than on a regional basis, and the incorporation of lifeline damage or disruption and indirect losses into a model.