Tsunami vulnerability assessment in urban areas using numerical model and GIS

Natural disasters can neither be predicted nor prevented. Urban areas with a high population density coupled with the construction of man-made structures are subjected to greater levels of risk to life and property in the event of natural hazards. One of the major and densely populated urban areas in the east coast of India is the city of Chennai (Madras), which was severely affected by the 2004 Tsunami, and mitigation efforts were severely dampened due to the non-availability of data on the vulnerability on the Chennai coast to tsunami hazard. Chennai is prone to coastal hazards and hence has hazard maps on its earth-quake prone areas, cyclone prone areas and flood prone areas but no information on areas vulnerable to tsunamis. Hence, mapping has to be done of the areas where the tsunami of December 2004 had directly hit and flooded the coastal areas in Chennai in order to develop tsunami vulnerability map for coastal Chennai. The objective of this study is to develop a GIS-based tsunami vulnerability map for Chennai by using a numerical model of tsunami propagation together with documented observations and field measurements of the evidence left behind by the tsunami in December 2004. World-renowned and the second-longest tourist beach in the world “Marina” present in this region witnessed maximum death toll due to its flat topography, resulting in an inundation of about 300 m landward with high flow velocity of the order of 2 m/s.     

First-level liquefaction hazard mapping of Laoag City,Northern Philippines

During the 1990 Luzon earthquake (M_s 7.8), the central part of Luzon Island, Philippines suffered much from liquefaction-related processes. Examination of inventories shows that the affected areas lie on certain geological environments that are characteristically vulnerable to liquefaction. Based on this local experience and the findings of earlier workers correlating geological setting with liquefaction susceptibility, a first-level map of liquefaction hazard for Laoag City, Northern Philippines, was produced. Distinct micro-geomorphological units were identified within the mainly fluvio-deltaic setting of the study area. The liquefaction susceptibility of each unit was then ranked as high, moderate, low or non-liquefiable, taking also the geomorphological evolution of the area into account. The geomorphological model of the fluvio-deltaic basin was tested against the results of the georesistivity survey carried out in this study. Moreover, compatibility of the liquefaction susceptibility map with historical liquefaction records supported the validity of the proposed ranking. The study showed that microzonation based on geomorphological criteria is indeed very useful in less-developed countries like the Philippines, where funds for a more rigorous determination of liquefaction potential are limited and not always available.     

Spatial variation of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai and surrounding region

Mumbai city, the economical capital of India, is located on the west coast of stable intra-plate continental region of Peninsular India which has an experience of significant historical earthquakes in the past. The city stood as the fourth most populous city in the world. Recent seismo-tectonic studies of this city highlighted the presence of active West coast fault and Chiplun fault beneath the Deccan basalt. In the present study, spatial variability of probabilistic seismic hazard for Mumbai region (latitudes of 18.85–19.35°N and longitudes of 72.80–73.15°E at a grid spacing of 0.05°) which includes Mumbai city, Suburban, part of Thane district and Navi Mumbai, in terms of ground motion parameters; peak horizontal acceleration and spectral acceleration at 1.0-s period for 2 and 10 % probability of exceedance in 50 years are generated. The epistemic uncertainty in hazard estimation is accounted by employing seven different ground motion prediction equations developed for worldwide shallow crustal intra-plate environments. Further, the seismic hazard results are deaggregated for Mumbai (latitude 18.94°N, longitude 72.84°E) to understand the relative contributions of earthquake sources in terms of magnitude and distance. The generated hazard maps are compared with the zoning specified by Indian seismic code (IS1893: Part 1 in Indian standard criteria for earthquake-resistant design of structures, Part 1—General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, India, 2002) for rocky site. Present results show an underestimation of potential seismic hazard in the entire study region by non-probabilistic zoning prescribed by IS1893: Part 1 with significantly higher seismic hazard values in the southern part of Navi Mumbai.     

Palaeochannel-controlled depositional features of the cretaceous lower Mahadek uranium Mineralisation in Umthongkut area,West Khasi Hills,Meghalaya

GIS complemented statistical classification techniques yield good result in predicting landslide hazards. Indian standard landslide hazard model follows guidelines formulated by the Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS, 1998), in which the study area is divided into five categories, ranging from very low hazard zone to very high hazard zone on fixed numerical ratings. For land use planners, “moderate hazard zone” proves vague and indecisive. In the present study, BIS based landslide hazard zones are demarcated for 140 sq. km area for a road corridor in East and North Sikkim that shows 21.96%, 53.14%, 22.80% and 2.10% for ‘Low Hazard Zone’, ‘Moderate Hazard Zone’, ‘High Hazard Zone’ and ‘Very High Hazard Zone’ respectively. This classification scheme has been reclassified to binary system based on population distribution and defining the cut-off by evaluation techniques of the ROC. The reclassification eliminates “moderate hazard zone”, minimizing the Type-II error and becomes more acceptable for future land use planning.     

Seismic hazard assessment of Chennai city considering local site effects

Chennai city suffered moderate tremors during the 2001 Bhuj and Pondicherry earthquakes and the 2004 Sumatra earthquake. After the Bhuj earthquake, Indian Standard IS: 1893 was revised and Chennai city was upgraded from zone II to zone III which leads to a substantial increase of the design ground motion parameters. Therefore, a comprehensive study is carried out to assess the seismic hazard of Chennai city based on a deterministic approach. The seismicity and seismotectonic details within a 100 km radius of the study area have been considered. The one-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out for 38 representative sites by the equivalent linear method using the SHAKE91 program to estimate the ground motion parameters considering the local site effects. The shear wave velocity profile was inferred from the corrected blow counts and it was verified with the Multichannel Analysis of Surface Wave (MASW) test performed for a representative site. The seismic hazard is represented in terms of characteristic site period and Spectral Acceleration Ratio (SAR) contours for the entire city. It is found that structures with low natural period undergo significant amplification mostly in the central and southern parts of Chennai city due to the presence of deep soil sites with clayey or sandy deposits and the remaining parts undergo marginal amplification.     

Earthquake hazard in Northeast India — A seismic microzonation approach with typical case studies from Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city

A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M _W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.     

Site-specific earthquake response study for hazard assessment in Kolkata city,India

The assessment of local site effects on seismic ground motions is of great importance in earthquake engineering practice. Several destructive earthquakes in the past have demonstrated that the amplification of ground motion and associated damage to structures due to local site conditions is a significant consideration in earthquake hazard analysis. A recent paper published in this journal highlights the hazard posed by earthquakes in the megacity of Kolkata in India due to its seismic and geological settings. The seismic hazard assessment study speculates that the deep alluvial deposit in the city may increase the seismic hazard probably due to the amplification of the seismic energies. This paper focuses on the seismic response studies of the various soil strata (i.e. for local subsurface conditions) obtained from various construction sites in the city for predicted earthquake. It is very well recognized that site response studies (a part of seismic microhazard zonation for urban areas) are the first step towards performance-based foundation design or seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy. One of the problems for carrying out site-specific study in Kolkata is the lack of recorded strong motion data in the city. Hence, this paper outlines a methodology to carry out site-specific study, where no strong motion data or seismic data are available. The methodology uses wavelet-based spectrum compatibility approach to generate synthetic earthquake motions and equivalent linear method for seismic site response analysis. The Mega City of Kolkata has been considered to explain the methodology. Seismic hazard zonation map by the Bureau of Indian Standards classifies the City of Kolkata as moderate seismic zone (Zone III) with a zone factor 0.16. On the other hand, GSHAP(Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program) map which is based on 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years specifies a maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 1.6 m/s² (0.163 g) for this region. In the present study, the seismic response has been carried out based on GSHAP. The results of the analysis indicate the amplification of ground motion in the range of 4.46–4.82 with the fundamental period ranging from 0.81 to 1.17 s. Furthermore, the maximum spectral accelerations vary in the range of 0.78–0.95 g.     

Soil liquefaction susceptibility and hazard mapping in the residential area of Kütahya (Turkey)

This study presents the results of both field and laboratory tests that have been undertaken to assess liquefaction susceptibilities of the soils in Kütahya city, located in the well-known seismically active fault zone. Liquefaction potentials of the sub-surface materials at Kütahya city were estimated by using the geological aspect and geotechnical methods such as SPT method of field testing. And, the data obtained have been mapped according to susceptibility and hazard. The susceptibility map indicated “liquefable” and “marginally liquefable” areas in alluvium, and “non-liquefable” areas in Neogene unit for the magnitude of earthquake of M=6.5; whereas, liquefaction hazard map produced by using of liquefaction potential index showed the severity categories from “very low” to “high.” However, a large area in the study area is prone to liquefy according to liquefaction susceptibility map; the large parts of the liquefable horizon are mapped as “low” class of severity by the use of the liquefaction potential index. It can be said that hazard mapping of liquefaction for a given site is crucial than producing liquefaction susceptibility map for estimating the severity. Both the susceptibility and hazard maps should be produced and correlated with each other for planning in an engineering point of view.     

粤港澳跨海大桥海域工程地质特征

根据地球物理探测、海底取样、钻探及现场测试等实测资料详细分析，发现粤港澳跨海大桥海域具有独特的自然条件以及复杂的海洋工程地质特征。海底地形地貌较为复杂，存在含浅层气区、活动性断层、沙波、地震活动、不规则基岩、埋藏古河道、冲刷槽沟和水下浅滩等潜在灾害地质因素，尤其粤港澳跨海大桥是特大型建筑，它经过的海域分布着多种潜在的地质灾害，应引起重视。     

Seismic hazard assessment and mitigation in India: an overview

The Indian subcontinent is characterized by various tectonic units viz., Himalayan collision zone in North, Indo-Burmese arc in north-east, failed rift zones in its interior in Peninsular Indian shield and Andaman Sumatra trench in south-east Indian Territory. During the last about 100 years, the country has witnessed four great and several major earthquakes. Soon after the occurrence of the first great earthquake, the Shillong earthquake (M _w: 8.1) in 1897, efforts were started to assess the seismic hazard in the country. The first such attempt was made by Geological Survey of India in 1898 and since then considerable progress has been made. The current seismic zonation map prepared and published by Bureau of Indian Standards, broadly places seismic risk in different parts of the country in four major zones. However, this map is not sufficient for the assessment of area-specific seismic risks, necessitating detailed seismic zoning, that is, microzonation for earthquake disaster mitigation and management. Recently, seismic microzonation studies are being introduced in India, and the first level seismic microzonation has already been completed for selected urban centres including, Jabalpur, Guwahati, Delhi, Bangalore, Ahmadabad, Dehradun, etc. The maps prepared for these cities are being further refined on larger scales as per the requirements, and a plan has also been firmed up for taking up microzonation of 30 selected cities, which lie in seismic zones V and IV and have a population density of half a million. The paper highlights the efforts made in India so far towards seismic hazard assessment as well as the future road map for such studies.     

Liquefaction hazard mapping at the town of Edessa,Northern Greece

The town of Edessa is located on Northern Greece at a region that is characterized as low seismicity zone due to the fact that few moderate events of M < 6 occurred during the last century. According to the Greek Seismic Code, the expected acceleration having a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years is equal to 0.16g. However, an amplification of ground motion is likely to occur due the local geology that is consisted of Holocene fluvio-torrential deposits. The basic aim of this paper is to evaluate the site amplification due to geological conditions and to assess the liquefaction hazard. In order to achieve this, 1-D site response analyses were performed. The data that were employed for the construction of the numerical models have been collected from borings with standard penetrations tests (SPT) that were drilled for construction purposes. Afterward, the liquefaction potential of the subsoil layers was evaluated taking into consideration two seismic scenarios. The first scenario was based on the seismic parameters, earthquake magnitude and PGA, assigned by the Greek Seismic Code. On the second seismic model, we employed the values of acceleration, resulted from the 1-D analyses and the earthquake magnitude as it was defined by the Greek Seismic Code. In order to compile the liquefaction hazard maps, we initially estimated the liquefaction potential index (LPI) of the soil columns using the parameters provided by SPT, for both seismic loadings, and afterward we correlated these values with the proposed classification of the severity of liquefaction-induced deformations. In addition, having computed the value of probability based on the LPI, liquefaction manifestations probability maps were compiled for both scenarios. The result of this study was that liquefaction-induced ground disruptions are likely to occur at the center of the city, among the branches of Voda River, only when the amplified values of acceleration are taken into account to the computation of liquefaction potential.     

A technical note on seismic microzonation in the central United States

Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations.     

Liquefaction potential and susceptibility mapping in the city of Yalova, Turkey

This study presents results of both field and laboratory tests that have been used to asses liquefaction susceptibilities of the soils in Yalova city, located in the well-known seismically active North Anatolian Fault Zone. Liquefaction potentials of the sub-surface materials in Yalova city were estimated by using the standard penetration test (SPT) method of field testing. The data obtained have been mapped according to susceptibility, and the susceptibility maps based on the geotechnical data indicated a moderate to high susceptibility to liquefaction for the magnitude of earthquake of M=7.4. Both the high groundwater level and the grain size of the soils, in conjunction with the active seismic features of the region, result in conditions favourable to the occurrence of liquefaction. When the surface and near surface geological conditions were taken under consideration, it was seen that the study areas geology is prone to liquefaction having a moderate liquefaction susceptibility. If geologic and geomorphological criteria are considered, it should be understood that the study area as discussed under the regions geology is susceptible to liquefaction. The geotechnical data largely support the geologic-based liquefaction susceptibility of the study area.     

Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning for rapid and long-travel landslides in urban development areas

Risk evaluation for earthquake-induced rapid and long-travel landslides in densely populated urban areas is currently the most important disaster mitigation task in landslide-threatened areas throughout the world. The research achievements of the IPL M-101 APERITIF project were applied to two urban areas in megacities of Japan. One site is in the upper slope of the Nikawa landslide site where previous movements were triggered by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. During detailed investigation, the slope was found to be at risk from a rapid and long-travel landslide induced by sliding surface liquefaction by earthquakes similar in scale to the 1995 event. A new plan to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon was proposed and the plan was implemented. Another area is the Tama residential area near Tokyo. A set of field and laboratory investigations including laser scanner, geological drilling and ring-shear tests showed that there was a risk of sliding surface liquefaction for both sites. A geotechnical computer simulation (Rapid/LS) using the quantitative data obtained in the study allowed urban landslide hazard zoning to be made at individual street level.     

Sea-breeze-initiated rainfall over the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon

Sea-breeze-initiated convection and precipitation have been investigated along the east coast of India during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Sea-breeze circulation was observed on approximately 70–80% of days during the summer months (June–August) along the Chennai coast. Average sea-breeze wind speeds are greater at rural locations than in the urban region of Chennai. Sea-breeze circulation was shown to be the dominant mechanism initiating rainfall during the Indian southwest monsoon season. Approximately 80% of the total rainfall observed during the southwest monsoon over Chennai is directly related to convection initiated by sea-breeze circulation.     

Arsenic distribution along different hydrogeomorphic zones in parts of the Brahmaputra River Valley,Assam (India)

The spatial distribution of arsenic (As) concentrations along three classified hydrogeomorphological zones in the Brahmaputra River Valley in Assam (India) have been investigated: zone I, comprising the piedmont and alluvial fans; zone II, comprising the runoff areas; and zone III, comprising the discharge zones. Groundwater (150 samples) from shallow hand-pumped and public water supply wells (2–60 m in depth) was analysed for chemical composition to examine the geochemical processes controlling As mobilization. As concentrations up to 0.134 mg/L were recorded, with concentrations below the World Health Organization and the Bureau of Indian Standards drinking-water limits of 0.01 mg/L being found mainly in the proximal recharge areas. Eh and other redox indicators (i.e., dissolved oxygen, Fe, Mn and As) indicate that, except for samples taken in the recharge zone, groundwater is reducing and exhibits a systematic decrease in redox conditions along the runoff and discharge zones. Hydrogeochemical evaluation indicated that zone I, located along the proximal recharge areas, is characterized by low As concentration, while zones II and III are areas with high and moderate concentrations, respectively. Systematic changes in As concentrations along the three zones support the view that areas of active recharge with high hydraulic gradient are potential areas hosting low-As aquifers.     

Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural network and analytic hierarchy process:Aceh province,Indonesia

Catastrophic natural hazards,such as earthquake,pose serious threats to properties and human lives in urban areas.Therefore,earthquake risk assessment(ERA)is indispensable in disaster management.ERA is an integration of the extent of probability and vulnerability of assets.This study develops an integrated model by using the artificial neural network–analytic hierarchy process(ANN–AHP)model for constructing the ERA map.The aim of the study is to quantify urban population risk that may be caused by impending earthquakes.The model is applied to the city of Banda Aceh in Indonesia,a seismically active zone of Aceh province frequently affected by devastating earthquakes.ANN is used for probability mapping,whereas AHP is used to assess urban vulnerability after the hazard map is created with the aid of earthquake intensity variation thematic layering.The risk map is subsequently created by combining the probability,hazard,and vulnerability maps.Then,the risk levels of various zones are obtained.The validation process reveals that the proposed model can map the earthquake probability based on historical events with an accuracy of 84%.Furthermore,results show that the central and southeastern regions of the city have moderate to very high risk classifications,whereas the other parts of the city fall under low to very low earthquake risk classifications.The findings of this research are useful for government agencies and decision makers,particularly in estimating risk dimensions in urban areas and for the future studies to project the preparedness strategies for Banda Aceh.     

The importance of hydrogeological and hydrological investigations in the residential area: a case study in Burdur,Turkey

Water resources in residential areas are negatively affected by floods. In addition, many aquifers are contaminated as a result of urbanization. Great damage caused during earthquakes are partly attributed to the residential pattern which ignores the potential effect of groundwater. Hydrogeological and hydrological surveys must be carried out in the residential areas to determine the interaction between water and residential development of all types.Recent hydrogeological and hydrological investigations regarding the impact of urbanization were made for the city of Burdur (Turkey). To evaluate the effect of earthquakes on groundwater, groundwater isohypse and groundwater isopach maps were prepared showing most of the buildings within the Burdur city boundaries, which are in the areas where groundwater depth is less than 10 m. This is considered a critical depth for liquefaction during an earthquake. Lowering of the groundwater table has to be considered as one of the alternatives in reducing earthquake hazards. The chemical makeup of groundwater was also determined to consider its relationship to contamination and possible effects upon the foundations. Streams flowing across the Burdur residential area formed a flooding risk. Results of the peak flow analysis can be used to design improvements for the city. Maps of the best residential development areas have been prepared by using hydrological and hydrogeological results.     

Earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard mapping at national-scale in Australia using deep learning techniques

Australia is a relatively stable continental region but not tectonically inert, having geological conditions that are susceptible to liquefaction when subjected to earthquake ground motion. Liquefaction hazard assessment for Australia was conducted because no Australian liquefaction maps that are based on modern AI techniques are currently available. In this study, several conditioning factors including Shear wave velocity (Vs30), clay content, soil water content, soil bulk density, soil thickness, soil pH, distance from river, slope and elevation were considered to estimate the liquefaction potential index (LPI). By considering the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) technique, peak ground acceleration (PGA) was derived for 50 yrs period (500 and 2500 yrs return period) in Australia. Firstly, liquefaction hazard index (LHI) (effects based on the size and depth of the liquefiable areas) was estimated by considering the LPI along with the 2% and 10% exceedance probability of earthquake hazard. Secondly, ground acceleration data from the Geoscience Australia projecting 2% and 10% exceedance rate of PGA for 50 yrs were used in this study to produce earthquake induced soil liquefaction hazard maps. Thirdly, deep neural networks (DNNs) were also exerted to estimate liquefaction hazard that can be reported as liquefaction hazard base maps for Australia with an accuracy of 94% and 93%, respectively. As per the results, very-high liquefaction hazard can be observed in Western and Southern Australia including some parts of Victoria. This research is the first ever country-scale study to be considered for soil liquefaction hazard in Australia using geospatial information in association with PSHA and deep learning techniques. This study used an earthquake design magnitude threshold of M_w 6 using the source model characterization. The resulting maps present the earthquake-triggered liquefaction hazard and are intending to establish a conceptual structure to guide more detailed investigations as may be required in the future. The limitations of deep learning models are complex and require huge data, knowledge on topology, parameters, and training method whereas PSHA follows few assumptions. The advantages deal with the reusability of model codes and its transferability to other similar study areas. This research aims to support stakeholders’ on decision making for infrastructure investment, emergency planning and prioritisation of post-earthquake reconstruction projects.     

Changes in coastal land use and the reasons for selecting places to live in Banda Aceh 10 years after the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

Ten years after the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and following a long process of rehabilitation and reconstruction, Aceh has finally recovered. After the tsunami, Aceh experienced a dramatic migration of its coastal population away from the city; however, after 10 years, the population has mostly recovered. As new houses have been built and new economic activities commenced in the coastal areas, there is now concern regarding potential future tsunami risks for the city. The initial rehabilitation and reconstruction plan sought to prevent the construction of any new houses 500 m from the coastline; however, this failed to happen. This paper elucidates the reasons why these new coastal communities chose their new housing areas and examines the coastal land use changes around Banda Aceh 10 years after the Indian Ocean tsunami. Questionnaires were distributed to 457 respondents, and multiple logistic regressions were used to examine the reasons for household location selection and whether a possible future tsunami was a deciding factor. To examine the coastal land use changes, a series of aerial images from the Banda Aceh coastal area were digitised. It was found that tsunami history was not a major factor in new household selection; rather, rents and land prices, distance from work, and family connections were the top three reasons motivating households to select new living places. These changes and new settlements have given the city’s disaster management agency the challenge of building more emergency infrastructure in the coastal areas.