Long-term trends and regime shifts in sea surface temperature on the continental shelf of the northeast United States

We investigated sea surface temperature (SST) variability over large spatial and temporal scales for the continental shelf region located off the northeast coast of the United States between Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and the Gulf of Maine using the extended reconstruction sea surface temperature (ERSST) dataset. The ERSST dataset consists of 2°×2° (latitude and longitude) monthly mean values computed from in situ data derived from the International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). Nineteen 2°×2° bins were chosen that cover the shelf region of interest between the years of 1854 and 2005. Mean annual and range of SST were examined using dynamic factor analysis to estimate trends in both parameters, while chronological clustering was used to determine temporal SST patterns and breakpoints in the time series that are believed to signal regime shifts in SST. Both SST and SST trend analysis show that interannual variability of SST fluctuations shows strong coherence between bins, with declining SST at the beginning of the last century, followed by increasing SST through 1950, and then rapidly decreasing between 1950 and mid-1960s, with somewhat warmer SST thereafter to present. Annual SST range decreases in a seaward direction for all bins, with strong coherence for interannual variability of range fluctuations between bins. The trend in SST range shows a decreasing range at the beginning of the last century followed by an increase in range from 1920 to the late-1980s, remaining high through present with some spatial variability. A more detailed spatial analysis was conducted by grouping the data into 7 regions using principal component analysis. We analyzed regional trends in mean annual SST, seasonal SST range (summer SST−winter SST), and normalized SST minima and maxima. Both the summer and winter seasons were also analyzed using the length of each season and amplitude of the warming and cooling season, respectively, along with the spring warming and fall cooling rates. Trends in all of the parameters were examined after low-pass filtering using a 10-point convolution filter (n=10 years) and regime shifts were identified using the sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts (STARS) method. The analysis shows some difference between regions in the timing of minimum SST with minima being reached 1 month earlier in the south (February) relative to more northern regions (March). Regional annual SST range decreased in a seaward direction. Amplitude of summer warming and the length of summer have shown fluctuations with recent years showing stronger warming and longer summers but generally not exceeding past levels. Overall, the difference in SST range, with recent larger values may be the most significant finding of this work. SST range changes have the potential to disrupt species important to local fisheries due to combinations of differing temperature tolerances, changes in reproduction potential, and changes in the distributional range of species.     

Patterns of sea surface temperature variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales at and offshore the Río de la Plata estuary

SST variability on seasonal to sub-annual scales in the coastal region of South America between 30° and 39°S, largely influenced by the Rio de la Plata estuary’s plume, and its relation to wind variability are explored. Data are six years of daily ensembles of gridded satellite SST and sea surface winds with spatial resolutions of about 11 and 25 km, respectively. Observations from oceanographic cruises are used to validate the results. It is found that the seasonal cycle can be explained in terms of two modes. The first one, characterizing fall-early winter/spring-early summer, is related to the radiative cycle. The second one, corresponding to late summer and winter, displays warm/cold anomalies along the Uruguayan coast forced by the prevailing winds during those seasons. In the upper estuary and the northern part of the area of influence of the freshwater plume, variability in sub-annual scales is significant. A large portion of this variance is related to zonal wind anomalies that force warm/cold SSTs along that coast. Cold anomalies of up to −5 °C occur under anomalously intense easterly winds, indicating upwelling. These events are very frequent and show large persistence, occurring up to one and a half months. They also display a marked seasonal cycle – being more frequent in late spring and summer – large inter-annual variability and seem to be modulated by the continental runoff. When discharge is low, the freshwater plume retracts to the west, reducing the inner-shelf stratification and increasing the likelihood of a full upwelling to the surface. In winter, short time-scale SST variability is mostly due to variability in the atmospheric cold fronts crossing the region. Weaker or less frequent (stronger or more frequent) fronts produce a generalized warming (cooling) over the region. As the estuary heats (colds) faster than the shelf, a warm (cold) anomaly develops in the upper Río de la Plata. On inter-annual time scales, probably because ENSO activity was weak during the studied period, SST variability was not important.     

A high-resolution satellite-derived sea surface temperature climatology for the western North Atlantic Ocean

Long-term and high-resolution (∼1.2 km) satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) fields of a monthly mean time series for the 1985–1999 period, and a daily climatology have been calculated for the North West Atlantic Ocean. The SST fields extend from 78°W to 41°W in longitude, and 30°N to 56°N in latitude, encompassing the region off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to the southern Labrador Sea. The monthly mean time series, consists of 180 cloud-masked monthly mean SST fields, derived from a full-resolution NOAA/NASA Pathfinder SST data set for the 1985–1999 period. The satellite-derived monthly mean SST fields, as compared with in situ monthly mean near-surface ocean temperatures from buoys located in the western North Atlantic, yield an overall RMS difference of 1.15 °C. The daily climatology, which consists of 365 fields, was derived by applying a least-squares harmonic regression technique on the monthly mean SST time series for the full study period. The monthly mean and daily climatological SST fields will be useful for studying inter-annual variability related to climate variability of SST over the study domain.     

Ocean circulation on the North Australian Shelf

The ocean circulation on Australia's Northern Shelf is dominated by the Monsoon and influenced by large-scale interannual variability. These driving forces exert an ocean circulation that influences the deep Timor Sea Passage of the Indonesian Throughflow, the circulation on the Timor and Arafura Shelves and, further downstream, the Leeuwin Current. Seasonal maxima of northeastward (southwestward) volume transports on the shelf are almost symmetric and exceed 10⁶ m³/s in February (June). The associated seasonal cycle of vertical upwelling from June to August south of 8.5°S and between 124°E and 137.5°E exceeds 1.5×10⁶ m³/s across 40 m depth. During El Niño events, combined anomalies from the seasonal means of high regional wind stresses and low inter-ocean pressure gradients double the northeastward volume transport on the North Australian Shelf to 1.5×10⁶ m³/s which accounts for 20% of the total depth-integrated transport across 124°E and reduce the total transport of the Indonesian Throughflow. Variability of heat content on the shelf is largely determined by Pacific and Indian Ocean equatorial wind stress anomalies with some contribution from local wind stress forcing.     

Validation of AVHRR and TMI-derived sea surface temperature in the northern South China Sea

Satellite-derived SSTs are validated in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) using in situ SSTs from the drifting buoys and well-calibrated sensors installed on Research/Vessel(R/V) Shiyan 3. The satellite SSTs are Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, Tropical rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST. Availability of satellite SST, which is the ratio that the number of available satellite SST to the total ocean pixels in NSCS is calculated; annual average SST availabilities of AVHRR daytime SST, AVHRR nighttime SST, TMI daytime SST and TMI nighttime SST are 68.42%, 69.99%, 56.57% and 52.80%, respectively. Though the TMI SST availability is nearly constant throughout the year, the variations of the AVHRR SST availability are much larger because of seasonal variations of cloud cover in NSCS. Validation of the satellite-derived SSTs shows that bias±standard deviation (STD) of AVHRR SST is −0.43±0.76 and −0.33±0.79 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively, and bias±STD of TMI SSTs is 0.07±1.11 and 0.00±0.97 °C for daytime and nighttime, respectively. It is clear that AVHRR SSTs have significant regional biases of about −0.4 °C against the drifting buoy SSTs. Differences between satellite-derived−in situ SSTs are investigated in terms of the diurnal SST cycle. When satellite-derived wind speeds decrease down below 6 m/s, the satellite SSTs become higher than the corresponding in situ SSTs, which means that the SST difference (satellite SST−Buoy SST) is positive. This wind-speed dependence of the SST difference is consistent with the previous results, which have mentioned that low wind speed coupled with clear sky conditions (high surface solar radiation) enhance the diurnal SST amplitude and the bulk-skin temperature difference.     

The eddy pair off eastern Vietnam: Interannual variability and impact on thermohaline structure

The main features, interannual variability of the eddy pair (an anti-cyclonic southern eddy and a cyclonic northern eddy) off eastern Vietnam and its impact on local thermohaline structure are analyzed using altimeter data, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) data, and the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) data. The results show that the eddy pair is a seasonal phenomenon usually found in the summer to fall. It can reach downward to about 400 m depth but is strongest at the upper 100 m depth. In addition, the eddy pair displays a remarkable interannual variability with periods of 5.6 and 3.6 years. The local wind stress curl plays an important role in the interannual variability of eddy pair. Moreover, the eddy pair has an obvious impact on the thermohaline structure of the local upper ocean. The eddy pair can lead to stronger temperature variability in the upper 380 m but stronger salinity variability only in the upper 150 m depth. When the eddy pair is strong, the anti-cyclonic eddy deepens the thermocline, while the cyclonic eddy shoals the thermocline. Taking the depth of 20 °C isotherm as the thermocline depth, we find that in September, the thermocline drops downward to 110–140 m depth in the anti-cyclonic eddy but rises up to 50–80 m depth in the cyclonic eddy.     

Temporal and spatial variability of Chl-a and SST on the South Atlantic Bight: Revisiting with cloud-free reconstructions of MODIS satellite imagery

Daily, cloud-free data interpolating empirical orthogonal function (DINEOF) reconstructions of sea-surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll (Chl-a) satellite imagery are compiled into monthly mean images for a six-year period (2003–2008) and used to identify their spatial and temporal variability on the South Atlantic Bight. Monthly-mean SST has the highest variability on the inner-shelf, decreasing seaward approaching the more stable temperatures of the Gulf Stream (GS). Monthly-mean Chl-a concentrations are similarly highest on the inner shelf throughout the year and decrease cross-shelf toward the nutrient depleted open ocean. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses on SST and Chl-a show a clear seasonal cycle in their 1st mode of variability, with SST lagging behind Chl-a by approximately one month. The 1st EOF modes account for 95.8% and 46.4% variance of SST and Chl-a, respectively. Chl-a EOF mode 1 in particular shows a highly regionalized spatial pattern with values on the central SAB clearly out of phase with the southern and northern SAB. This regional difference is likely a result of shelf geometry and stratification, which modulate GS influence on the shelf. SST EOF mode 2 exhibits a seasonal cycle as well, which previous studies have shown to be a function of local wind. Chl-a EOF mode 2 is well correlated with the cumulative river transport onto the SAB, but accounts for a relatively small 10.8% of Chl-a variability.     

Variability of chlorophyll-a from ocean color images in the La Plata continental shelf region

Satellite-derived chlorophyll-a fields have been used to investigate temporal and spatial variability of chlorophyll-a concentration over the continental shelf zone (25–40°S and 60–45°W) close to the La Plata River estuary. Ocean color data used in this study were obtained by the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and consisted of 368 weekly averaged Standard Mapped Images (SMI), from October 1997 to September 2005. Fourier harmonic and EOF analyses were used to study the variability of log-transformed chlorophyll-a concentration in the region. The harmonic analysis has shown that the annual cycle was the most dominant signal followed by the semi- and quadri-annual cycles, in certain areas. The strong annual cycle is mainly present in latitudes lower than 34°S where relatively high amplitudes (∼1.9 mg m⁻³) in pigment variation are seen over the southern Brazilian continental shelf. The semi-annual cycle is mainly associated with the Brazil–Malvinas frontal zone oscillation while the 4-year signal is related to positive La Plata discharge anomalies influenced by El Niño events. After removing the annual signal from the log-transformed chlorophyll anomalies, the EOF results showed that the first three modes captured 85.1% of the variability associated with the regional mean phytoplankton chlorophyll pattern in our smoothed data set. The first three modes explained, respectively, 63.4%, 14.1% and 7.6%. The EOF results showed that the long-term chlorophyll time/space patterns are associated with both La Plata discharge anomaly (mode 1) and alongshore wind stress (mode 2). A reconstruction of the chlorophyll anomaly fields has been made using the two leading EOF modes over two periods of high La Plata River discharge, during ENSO events. In the first event, the spatial patterns of high chlorophyll anomaly were confined to the southern portion of the region, associated with NE winds, which push the plume near the estuary mouth. The second period revealed an elongated tongue of positive chlorophyll anomalies over the Uruguayan and Brazilian middle continental shelves, associated with favorable SW winds. The analyses performed in this study allowed identification of the main modes of variability in SeaWiFS-derived chlorophyll in the region, which were consistent with modulations of important regional environmental forcing mechanisms.     

Shelf water entrainment by Gulf Stream warm-core rings between 75°W and 50°W during 1978–1999

Previous work concerning Gulf Stream warm-core rings (WCRs) and their associated shelf water entrainments have been based upon single surveys or time series from individual WCRs. To date, estimates of annual shelf water volume entrained into the Slope Sea by WCRs and its interannual variability have not been made. Using a long time series of satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) observations of Slope Sea WCRs, we have completed an analysis of 22 years of WCR data (1978–1999) between 75°W and 50°W to understand the interannual variability of WCRs and their role in entraining shelf water. Satellite-derived SST data digitized at Bedford Institute of Oceanography are analyzed using an ellipse-fitting feature model to determine key WCR characteristics including WCR center position, radius and orientation. Key characteristics are then used to compute WCR swirl velocity by finite-differencing WCR orientations (θ) obtained from the feature model time series. Global mean WCR-edge swirl velocity calculated from all observations is 105.72±10.7 km day⁻¹ (122.36±12.4 cm s⁻¹), and global mean WCR radius is 64.8±6.2 km. Primary and derived WCR data are incorporated into a two-dimensional ring entrainment model (RM) using the quasi-geostrophic approximation of the potential vorticity equation. The RM defines ambient water as entrained by a WCR only if the gradient of relative vorticity term (horizontal shear) dominates the potential vorticity. Proximity of a WCR to the position of the shelf-slope front (SSF) is then used to determine whether the ambient water is entrained from the outer continental shelf. WCR-induced shelf entrainment derived from the RM displays considerable spatial variability, with maximum entrainment occurring offshore of Georges Bank, advecting a mean total annual shelf water volume of 7500 km³ year⁻¹ from the region. Estimates of shelf water fluxes display significant interannual variability, which may be in part due to the observed covariance between WCR occurrences and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Increased (decreased) occurrences of WCRs are evidenced during positive (negative) phases of the NAO. The total mean annual shelf-wide WCR-induced shelf water transport is estimated to be 23,700 km³ year⁻¹ (0.75 Sv), accounting for nearly 25% of the total transport in the Slope Sea region neighboring the outer continental shelf.     

Space–time variability of the Plata plume inferred from ocean color

Satellite ocean color and surface salinity data are used to characterize the space–time variability of the Río de la Plata plume. River outflow and satellite wind data are also used to assess their combined effect on the plume spreading over the Southwestern South Atlantic continental shelf. Over the continental shelf satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (CSAT) estimated by the OC4v4 SeaWiFS retrieval algorithm is a good indicator of surface salinity. The log (CSAT) distribution over the shelf presents three distinct modes, each associated to: Subantarctic Shelf Water, Subtropical Shelf Water and Plata Plume water. The log (CSAT) 0.4–0.8 range is associated with a sharp surface salinity transition across the offshore edge of the Plata plume from 28.5 to 32.5. Waters of surface salinity <31, derived from mixtures of Plata waters with continental shelf waters, are associated to log (CSAT)>0.5. In austral winter CSAT maxima extend northeastward from the Plata estuary beyond 30°S. In summer the high CSAT waters along the southern Brazil shelf retreat to 32°S and extend south of the estuary to about 37.5°S, only exceeding this latitude during extraordinary events. The seasonal CSAT variations northeast of the estuary are primarily controlled by reversals of the along-shore wind stress and surface currents. Along-shore wind stress and CSAT variations in the inner and mid-shelves are in phase north of the estuary and 180° out of phase south of the estuary. At interannual time scales northernmost Plata plume penetrations in winter (∼1200 km from the estuary) are associated with more intense and persistent northeastward wind stress, which in the period 2000–2003, prevailed over the shelf south of 26°S. In contrast, in winter 1999, 2004 and 2005, characterized by weaker northeastward wind stress, the plume only reached between 650 and 900 km. Intense southwestward plume extensions beyond 38°S are dominated by interannual time scales and appear to be related to the magnitude of the river outflow. The plume response to large river outflow fluctuations observed at interannual time scales is moderate, except offshore from the estuary mouth, where outflow variations lead CSAT variations by about 2 months.     

Seasonality and anomalies of sea surface temperature off the coast of Nayarit, Mexico

Sea surface temperature (SST) harmonic and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analyses covering 18 years were performed for the area located from 114° to 105° W and from 18° to 25° N. The results indicate that the influence of the annual signal predominates over the semi-annual signal, and the closer to the coast, the stronger the annual harmonic. Several interannual anomalies arose that are connected with the main global indexes, especially the Oceanic Niño Index. Pearson correlations between the first temporal mode of the SST and regional rainfalls in Nayarit indicate that maximum correlations (r?>?0.7) are observed when there is a +1-month lag between the series. However, this result indicates that SST is delayed with 1 month after rainfall occurrence, which shows that the dominant influence in this relationship is not the SST forcing.     

Satellite observation of Brazil Current inshore thermal front in the SW South Atlantic: Space/time variability and sea surface temperatures

A data set of 199 sea surface temperature maps derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer for the period 2000–2002 was processed to derive the position of the surface inshore thermal front of the Brazil Current (BCIF) in the SE Brazilian coastal and oceanic area. After the derivation of the position of the BC front for each image, the ensemble of digital frontal vectors was processed using the algorithm of frontal density (FD). For each 5′×5′ cell in the domain the calculated FD provided an index expressing the presence and persistence of the front in the area or the probability of finding the front in the region. In the paper we present the results of the FD analysis to get a better view of the space and time variability of the BC front in the region. The highest values of FD were in general observed close to or at the shelf break zone (between 200 and 1000 m isobaths). From 20°S to 23°S there is a tendency of BCIF to be positioned over the outer shelf, inshore of the 200 m isobaths. SE of Cape Sao Tome and S of Cape Frio it was observed a bimodal spatial distribution of highest FD caused by the presence of two semi-permanent frontal eddies. After moving offshore near Cape Frio, the BCIF tends to return to the shelf break zone south of 24°S probably due to a potential vorticity conservation mechanism. The position of the highest FD values calculated for different seasons confirms previous studies in that BCIF is closer to the coast during the summer and furthest offshore in the winter. Statistical analysis of the SST data gave for the BCIF an average SST gradient of 0.31°C km⁻¹ with a standard deviation of 0.15°C km⁻¹. A mean frontal width of 6 km was inferred from the average SST gradient and typical temperatures near the front at both sides, at outer shelf and in the BC itself. A Weibull probability density function can be fitted to describe the BCIF SST gradients with scale factor c=0.3460°C km⁻¹ and shape factor k=2.1737. The BCIF SST gradient showed a seasonal variability with the smallest gradients in summer (~0.24 °C km⁻¹) and the highest in autumn (~0.33 °C km⁻¹). Using a three harmonic Fourier fit for the SST field near the BCIF, at the outer shelf and at interior of BC, it was possible to derive an analytical model for the time variability of the SST gradient of BCIF.     

Characteristic scales, temporal variability modes and simulation of monthly Elbe River flow time series at ungauged locations

Spatial and temporal patterns of the long-range extreme monthly Elbe River flows across Germany are investigated, using various statistical methods, among others, principal component and wavelet analysis. Characteristic time scales are derived for various time series statistics. The wavelet analysis of the raw river discharge data as well as of the major principal component reveal the main oscillatory components and their temporal behavior, namely low frequency oscillations at interannual (6.9 yr) and interdecadal (13.9 yr) scales. The EOFs at ungauged stations are estimated from the principal components of the observed time series sampled over a limited time span whose length equals the major temporal variability scale (≈7 yr). The EOFs (empirical orthogonal functions) obtained in this way are subsequently used to simulate long-range flows at these locations. A comparison of this method with linear interpolation and ordinary kriging of the EOF shows the superiority of the former in representing the distributional properties of the observed time series. The simulated time series preserve also short and long-memory.     

Analysis of the interannual variability of annual daily extreme water levels in the St Lawrence River and Lake Ontario from 1918 to 2010

We compared the interannual variability of annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario and the St Lawrence River (Sorel station) from 1918 to 2010, using several statistical tests. The interannual variability of annual daily maximum extreme water levels in Lake Ontario is characterized by a positive long‐term trend showing two shifts in mean (1929–1930 and 1942–1943) and a single shift in variance (in 1958–1959). In contrast, for the St Lawrence River, this interannual variability is characterized by a negative long‐term trend with a single shift in mean, which occurred in 1955–1956. As for annual daily minimum extreme water levels, their interannual variability shows no significant long‐term change in trend. However, for Lake Ontario, the interannual variability of these water levels shows two shifts in mean, which are synchronous with those for maximum water levels, and a single shift in variance, which occurred in 1965–1966. These changes in trend and stationarity (mean and variance) are thought to be due to factors both climatic (the Great Drought of the 1930s) and human (digging of the Seaway and construction of several dams and locks during the 1950s). Despite this change in means and variance, the four series are clearly described by the generalized extreme value distribution. Finally, annual daily maximum and minimum extreme water levels in the St Lawrence and Lake Ontario are negatively correlated with Atlantic multidecadal oscillation over the period from 1918 to 2010. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual variability of subsurface temperature in summer induced by the Kuroshio over Bungo Channel,Tosa Bay,and Kii Channel,south of Japan

Using historical in situ temperature record, we investigate interannual variability of temperature in summer over Bungo Channel, Tosa Bay, and Kii Channel (hereafter “BTK”), south of Japan. This study aims to reveal the interregional relation of the subsurface temperature variability between the shelf and slope as well as between BTK, and specify the primary cause of the temperature variability in terms of the Kuroshio path. It is shown that 100-m temperature on the slope of BTK is synchronous with each other and highly correlated with coastal sea levels from Kyushu to Kii Peninsula, suggesting that subsurface temperature over the slope varies simultaneously on spatial scales of 400–500 km in the along-slope direction. The 100-m temperature on the slope is also correlated with the near-bottom temperature on the shelf, implying that the near-bottom temperature is determined mainly by the larger-scale variability over the slope. The Kuroshio state in summer of each year is classified into the large meander (LM), non-large meander (NLM), and intermittent larger meander (IM) propagating eastward along the slope. It is found that remarkable temperature increases are accompanied by the IM propagations south of BTK. Temperatures during the IM and LM period are significantly different, the means of which are the highest and lowest, respectively. Temperature during the NLM period with the second highest mean value exhibits the largest variance. Statistical analysis suggests that this variance is related to the Kuroshio axis shift over Izu Ridge between the nearshore and offshore NLM paths.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Ice-induced seasonal variability of tidal constants in the Arctic Ocean

The results for three-dimensional (3D) winter and summer tidal flows in the homogeneous Arctic Ocean, obtained with the use of a modified version of the 3D finite-element hydrothermodynamic model QUODDY-4, are presented. It is shown that seasonal variability of the M₂ tidal constants (amplitudes and phases of tidal sea surface level elevations) in the Central and Canadian parts of the Arctic Ocean is less than the error in the predicted tidal sea surface level elevations. This means that the seasonal variability can be neglected at least as a first approximation. A different situation is encountered in the Siberian continental shelf, where seasonal changes of tidal amplitude are ±5 cm, while those of tidal phase vary from 15° to several tens of degrees.     

Connectivity of the Apalachicola River flow variability and the physical and bio-optical oceanic properties of the northern West Florida Shelf

Maps of satellite-derived estimates of monthly averaged chlorophyll a concentration over the northern West Florida Shelf show interannual variations concentrated near the coastline, but also extending offshore over the shelf in a tongue-like pattern from the Apalachicola River during the late winter and early spring. These anomalies are significantly correlated with interannual variability in the flow rate of the Apalachicola River, which is linked to the precipitation anomalies over the watershed, over a region extending 150–200 km offshore out to roughly the 100 m isobath. This study examines the variability of the Apalachicola River and its impacts on the variability of water properties over the northern West Florida Shelf. A series of numerical model experiments show that episodic wind-driven offshore transport of the Apalachicola River plume is a likely physical mechanism for connecting the variability of the river discharge with oceanic variability over the middle and outer shelf.     

Variability in the annual cycle of vertical particulate organic carbon export on Arctic shelves: Contrasting the Laptev Sea,Northern Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea

The ongoing regression of sea ice cover is expected to significantly affect the fate of organic carbon over the Arctic continental shelves. Long-term moored sediment traps were deployed in 2005–2006 in the Beaufort Sea, Northern Baffin Bay and the Laptev Sea to compare the annual variability of POC fluxes and to evaluate the factors regulating the annual cycle of carbon export over these continental shelves. Annual POC fluxes at 200 m ranged from 1.6 to 5.9 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with the highest export in Northern Baffin Bay and the lowest export over the Mackenzie Shelf in the Beaufort Sea. Each annual cycle exhibited an increase in POC export a few weeks before, during, or immediately following sea ice melt, but showed different patterns over the remainder of the cycle. Enhanced primary production, discharge of the Lena River, and resuspension events contributed to periods of elevated POC export over the Laptev Sea slope. High POC fluxes in Northern Baffin Bay reflected periods of elevated primary production in the North Water polynya. In the Beaufort Sea sediment resuspension contributed to most of the large export events. Our results suggest that the outer shelf of the Laptev Sea will likely sustain the largest increase in POC export in the next few years due to the large reduction in ice cover and the possible increase in the Lena River discharge. The large differences in forcing among the regions investigated reinforce the importance of monitoring POC fluxes in the different oceanographic regimes that characterize the Arctic shelves to assess the response of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle to interannual variability and climate change.     

Variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere land areas, 1972–2000

This study investigated variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in regions covering high‐latitude and high‐elevation land areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual snow‐cover cycle was examined with respect to the week of the last‐observed snow cover in spring (WLS), the week of the first‐observed snow cover in autumn (WFS), and the duration of the snow‐free period (DSF). The analysis used a 29‐year time‐series (1972–2000) of weekly, visible‐band satellite observations of Northern Hemisphere snow cover from NOAA with corrections applied by D. Robinson of Rutgers University Climate Laboratory. Substantial interannual variability was observed in WLS, WFS and DSF (standard deviations of 0·8–1·1, 0·7–0·9 and 1·0–1·4 weeks, respectively), which is related directly to interannual variability in snow‐cover area in the regions and time periods of snow‐cover transition. Over the nearly three‐decade study period, WLS shifted earlier by 3–5 days/decade as determined by linear regression analysis. The observed shifts in the annual snow‐cover cycle underlie a significant trend toward a longer annual snow‐free period. The DSF increased by 5–6 days/decade over the study period, primarily as a result of earlier snow cover disappearance in spring. The observed trends are consistent with reported trends in the timing and length of the active growing season as determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness and the atmospheric CO₂ record. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.