Internal Variability Of The North Atlantic Wind-Driven Ocean Circulation

A new approach to understand the physical processes that govern internal variability of the large scale North Atlantic ocean circulation is outlined and current methods and results are reviewed. In this approach, based on the theory of dynamical systems, internal variability is viewed as arising through successive transitions when parameters are changed. The potential of the approach is demonstrated through analysesof solutions of intermediate complexity models of the wind-driven ocean circulation in the North Atlantic. In a quasi-geostrophic modelfor the flow in a rectangular basin with idealized wind forcing, the basic transitions are already found and physical mechanisms at work can be described in detail. Qualitatively, this transition behavior remains robust in more realistic models, having shallow water dynamics, realistic wind forcingand continental geometry, although patterns and time scales changethrough the model hierarchy. The relevance of the results is discussed inrelation to those of observations and of ocean general circulation models.     

Correcting surface winds by assimilating high-frequency radar surface currents in the German Bight

Surface winds are crucial for accurately modeling the surface circulation in the coastal ocean. In the present work, high-frequency radar surface currents are assimilated using an ensemble scheme which aims to obtain improved surface winds taking into account European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts winds as a first guess and surface current measurements. The objective of this study is to show that wind forcing can be improved using an approach similar to parameter estimation in ensemble data assimilation. Like variational assimilation schemes, the method provides an improved wind field based on surface current measurements. However, the technique does not require an adjoint, and it is thus easier to implement. In addition, it does not rely on a linearization of the model dynamics. The method is validated directly by comparing the analyzed wind speed to independent in situ measurements and indirectly by assessing the impact of the corrected winds on model sea surface temperature (SST) relative to satellite SST.     

Numerical modeling of the Amazon River plume

Marine circulation above the northern Brazilian continental shelf is subject to energetic forcing factors of various origins: high water buoyancy fluxes induced by the Amazon River freshwater discharge, a strong coastal current associated with a mesoscale current (North Brazil Current (NBC)), a forcing by semidiurnal tide and by Northeast or Southeast trade winds according to the season. Using a three-dimensional (3-D) hydrodynamic numerical model (MOBEEHDYCS), and realistic bathymetry and coastline of the northern Brazilian shelf, this paper aims at studying the influence of some specific physical processes on the morphology of the Amazon plume. The very large volume discharge (180 000 m³/s on average) and the weak effect of Coriolis force are additional characteristics of the studied system, which induce a particular dynamics. The various forcing factors are successively introduced into the model in order to simulate and to determine their respective influences upon the plume extent and the hydrodynamics at the shelf scale. Simulation reveal that the coastal current is at the origin of the permanent northwestward Amazon plume extension while wind effect can either reinforce or moderate this situation. The tide intervenes also to modify the position of the salinity front: a horizontal migration of salinity front is observed under its action.     

Seasonal variation of upper layer circulation in the northern part of the East/Japan Sea

Seasonal variation of upper layer circulation in the northern part of the East/Japan Sea and its mechanism were investigated using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis with satellite sea surface heights over the northern East/Japan Sea and a three-dimensional circulation model. The spatial structure and temporal variation of first EOF mode, which explains about 64% of the total variance, indicate that a large cyclonic circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea shows a semi-annual variation with maximum strength in summer and winter. According to numerical model result, the Liman Cold Current, accepted as a major current in the northern East/Japan Sea, is well mixed vertically by the winter monsoon and the current in the upper layer has a relatively deep structure, with a maximum westward speed of about 20 cm/s in winter. On the other hand, in summer the current has a stronger baroclinic structure of velocity than in winter. Numerical experiments showed that in summer the temporal variation of upper layer circulation is controlled by thermal forcing, such as sea surface heat flux and inflow of heat transport into the East/Japan Sea through the Korea/Tsushima Strait. Moreover, the cyclonic circulation in the upper layer of the northern East/Japan Sea is also generated and strengthened by the positive wind stress curl occupying most of the East/Japan Sea during the winter. The seasonal variation of each forcing that drives the circulation is responsible for the strength or weakness of the upper layer circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea. The contribution of each forcing to the seasonal variation of the upper layer circulation is examined through sensitivity experiments. According to these numerical experiments, the upper layer circulation in the northern East/Japan Sea is strengthened twice a year, in winter and summer, and this semi-annual variation is determined by a combination of wind (winter) and thermal (summer) forcing.     

Interactions between wind and tidally induced currents in coastal and shelf basins

This paper addresses the impact of atmospheric variability on ocean circulation in tidal and non-tidal basins. The data are generated by an unstructured-grid numerical model resolving the dynamics in the coastal area, as well as in the straits connecting the North Sea and Baltic Sea. The model response to atmospheric forcing in different frequency intervals is quantified. The results demonstrate that the effects of the two mechanical drivers, tides and wind, are not additive, yet non-linear interactions play an important role. There is a tendency for tidally and wind-driven circulations to be coupled, in particular in the coastal areas and straits. High-frequency atmospheric variability tends to amplify the mean circulation and modify the exchange between the North and the Baltic Sea. The ocean response to different frequency ranges in the wind forcing is area-selective depending on specific local dynamics. The work done by wind on the oceanic circulation depends strongly upon whether the regional circulation is tidally or predominantly wind-driven. It has been demonstrated that the atmospheric variability affects the spring-neap variability very strongly.     

Study on subtidal circulation and variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence,Scotian Shelf,and Gulf of Maine using a nested-grid shelf circulation model

This paper examines the subtidal circulation and associated variability in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the Scotian Shelf, and the Gulf of Maine (GSL-SS-GOM) in 1988–2004 based on results produced by a nested-grid shelf circulation model. The model has a fine-resolution child model (～ (1/12)°) embedded inside a coarse-resolution parent model (～ (1/4)°) of the northwest Atlantic. The combination of the semi-prognostic method and the spectral nudging method is used to reduce the model seasonal bias and drift. The child model reproduces the general features of the observed circulation and hydrography over the study region during the study period. The child model results demonstrate that the time-mean circulation in the GSL is affected by the time-mean atmospheric forcing and inflow through the Strait of Belle Isle. The temporal variability in atmospheric forcing affects the outflow through western Cabot Strait, which in turn affects the transport of the Nova Scotian Current and the gulf-wide cyclonic circulation in the GOM. The simulated seasonal variability of salinity in the top 30 m of the GSL-SS-GOM is mainly affected by the equatorward advection of low-salinity waters from the lower St. Lawrence Estuary to the GOM through the Scotian Shelf. The simulated intraseasonal variability of circulation in the GSL is affected by the variability in the estuarine circulation in response to the temporal variability in atmospheric forcing. On the Scotian Shelf, the intraseasonal variability is mainly driven by the variability of wind forcing and mesoscale and nonlinear dynamics over the shelf break and slope region. The interannual variability in the simulated temperature and salinity are spatially coherent in the intermediate waters in the GSL, which is caused partially by the local response to atmospheric variability and partially by variabilities over the southern Newfoundland Shelf that enter the GSL through the eastern Cabot Strait. By comparison, on the Scotian Shelf, the interannual variability of simulated circulation is affected by anomalies produced by the nonlinear dynamics which are advected equatorwards by the shelf break jet.     

Leveraging ensemble meteorological forcing data to improve parameter estimation of hydrologic models

As continental to global scale high-resolution meteorological datasets continue to be developed, there are sufficient meteorological datasets available now for modellers to construct a historical forcing ensemble. The forcing ensemble can be a collection of multiple deterministic meteorological datasets or come from an ensemble meteorological dataset. In hydrological model calibration, the forcing ensemble can be used to represent forcing data uncertainty. This study examines the potential of using the forcing ensemble to identify more robust parameters through model calibration. Specifically, we compare an ensemble forcing-based calibration with two deterministic forcing-based calibrations and investigate their flow simulation and parameter estimation properties and the ability to resist poor-quality forcings. The comparison experiment is conducted with a six-parameter hydrological model for 30 synthetic studies and 20 real data studies to provide a better assessment of the average performance of the deterministic and ensemble forcing-based calibrations. Results show that the ensemble forcing-based calibration generates parameter estimates that are less biased and have higher frequency of covering the true parameter values than the deterministic forcing-based calibration does. Using a forcing ensemble in model calibration reduces the risk of inaccurate flow simulation caused by poor-quality meteorological inputs, and improves the reliability and overall simulation skill of ensemble simulation results. The poor-quality meteorological inputs can be effectively filtered out via our ensemble forcing-based calibration methodology and thus discarded in any post-calibration model applications. The proposed ensemble forcing-based calibration method can be considered as a more generalized framework to include parameter and forcing uncertainties in model calibration.     

Can intra-seasonal wind stress forcing strongly affect spring predictability barrier for ENSO in Zebiak–Cane model?

The influence of the uncertainties of intra-seasonal wind stress forcing on Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction is studied with the Zebiak–Cane model and observational wind data which are analyzed with Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) and utilized to extract intra-seasonal wind stress signals as external forcing. The observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing are joined into Zebiak–Cane model to get the Zebiak–Cane-add model and subsequently with the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) method, the evolutions of the optimal initial errors (i.e., CNOPs), model errors caused by intra-seasonal wind stress uncertainties, and their joint errors based on ENSO events are calculated. By investigating their error growth rates and prediction errors of Niño-3 indices, the effect of observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing on seasonal error growth of ENSO is explored and the impact of initial error and model error on ENSO predictability is compared quantitatively. The results show that the model errors led by observational intra-seasonal wind stress forcing could scarcely cause a significant SPB whereas the initial errors and their joint errors can do; hence, the initial errors are most likely the main error source of SPB. In fact, this result emphasizes the primary influence of initial errors on ENSO predictability and lays the basis of adaptive data assimilation for ENSO forecast.     

Post‐processing of medium‐range probabilistic hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing,initial conditions and model errors

The impact of errors in the forcing, errors in the model structure and parameters, and errors in the initial conditions is investigated in a simple hydrological ensemble prediction system. The hydrological model is based on an input nonlinearity connected with a linear transfer function and forced by precipitation forecasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). The post‐processing of the precipitation and/or the streamflow using information from the reforecasts performed by ECMWF is tested. For this purpose, hydrological reforecasts are obtained by forcing the hydrological model with the precipitation from the reforecast data. In the present case study, it is found that the post‐processing of the hydrological ensembles with a statistical model fitted on the hydrological reforecasts improves the verification scores better than the use of post‐processed precipitation ensembles. In the case of large biases in the precipitation, combining the post‐processing of both precipitation and streamflow allows for further improvements. During the winter, errors in the initial conditions have a larger impact on the scores than errors in the model structure as designed in the experiments. Errors in the parameter values are largely corrected with the post‐processing. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Baroclinic dynamics of wind-driven circulation in a stratified bay: A numerical study using models of varying complexity

The baroclinic response of a stratified coastal embayment (Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia) to the observed wind forcing is examined using two numerical models. A linear baroclinic model based on the normal mode approach shows skill at reproducing the observed isotherm movements and sub-surface currents during a time of strong stratification in the bay. The linear model also shows that the isotherm movement in Lunenburg Bay is influenced by the wind forcing and propagation of baroclinic Kelvin waves from neighbouring Mahone Bay. The effects of nonlinearity and topography are investigated using a three-dimensional nonlinear coastal circulation model. The nonlinear model results demonstrate that the nonlinear advection terms generate a gyre circulation at the entrance of Lunenburg Bay, and the slope bottom topography at the mouth of the bay strengthens the sub-surface time-mean inflow on the southern side of the bay. A comparison of model-calculated currents in different numerical experiments clearly shows that baroclinicity plays a dominant role in the dynamics of wind-driven circulation in Lunenburg Bay.     

Numerical study of circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the Bras d’Or Lakes

The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s^?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.     

Estimates of surface drifter trajectories in the equatorial Atlantic: a multi-model ensemble approach

We compared the estimates of surface drifter trajectories from 1 to 7?days in the equatorial Atlantic over an 18-month period with five eddying ocean general circulation model (OGCM) reanalyses and one observational product. The cumulative distribution of trajectory error was estimated using over 7,000?days of drifter trajectories. The observational product had smaller errors than any of the individual OGCM reanalyses. Three strategies for improving trajectory estimates using the ensemble of five operational ocean analysis and forecasting products were explored: two methods using a multi-model ensemble estimate and also spatial low-pass filtering. The results were insensitive to the method used to create the ensemble estimates, and by most measures, the results were better than the observational product. Comparison of relative skill of the various OGCM reanalyses suggested promising avenues for exploration for further improvements: forcing with higher frequency wind stress and quality control of input data. One of the lowest horizontal resolution OGCMs, with 1/4° longitude horizontal resolution, made the best trajectory estimates. The individual OGCMs were dominated by errors at spatial scales smaller than about 100 to 200?km, i.e., less than the local deformation radius. But buried in those errors were valuable signals that could be retrieved by combining all the OGCM velocity fields to produce a multi-model ensemble-based estimate. This estimate had skill down to spatial scales about 75?km. Results from this study are consistent with previous work showing that ensemble-mean forecast skill is superior to individual forecasts.     

Barotropic and baroclinic processes in the transport variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current

Synoptic scale variability of the Southern Ocean wind field in the high-frequency range of barotropic Rossby waves results in transport variations of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which are highly coherent with the bottom pressure field all around the Antarctic continent. The coherence pattern, in contrast to the steady state ACC, is steered by the geostrophic f/h contours passing through Drake Passage and circling closely around the continent. At lower frequencies, with interannual and decadal periods, the correlation with the bottom pressure continues, but baroclinic processes gain importance. For periods exceeding a few years, variations of the ACC transport are in geostrophic balance with the pressure field associated with the baroclinic potential energy stored in the stratification, whereas bottom pressure plays a minor role. The low-frequency variability of the ACC transport is correlated with the baroclinic state variable in the entire Southern Ocean, mediated by baroclinic topographic–planetary Rossby waves that are not bound to f/h contours. To clarify the processes of wave dynamics and pattern correlation, we apply a circulation model with simplified physics (the barotropic–baroclinic-interaction model BARBI) and use two types of wind forcing: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) wind field with integrations spanning three decades and an artificial wind field constructed from the first three empirical orthogonal functions of NCEP combined with a temporal variability according to an autoregressive process. Experiments with this Southern Annular Mode type forcing have been performed for 1,800 years. We analyze the spin-up, trends, and variability of the model runs. Particular emphasis is placed on coherence and correlation patterns between the ACC transport, the wind forcing, the bottom pressure field and the pressure associated with the baroclinic potential energy. A stochastic dynamical model is developed that describes the dominant barotropic and baroclinic processes and represents the spectral properties for a wide range of frequencies, from monthly periods to hundreds of years.     

Dynamics of the circulation in the Sea of Marmara: numerical modeling experiments and observations from the Turkish straits system experiment

During September 2008 and February 2009, the NR/V Alliance extensively sampled the waters of the Sea of Marmara within the framework of the Turkish Straits System (TSS) experiment coordinated by the NATO Undersea Research Centre. The observational effort provided an opportunity to set up realistic numerical experiments for modeling the observed variability of the Marmara Sea upper layer circulation at mesoscale resolution over the entire basin during the trial period, complementing relevant features and forcing factors revealed by numerical model results with information acquired from in situ and remote sensing datasets. Numerical model solutions from realistic runs using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) produce a general circulation in the Sea of Marmara that is consistent with previous knowledge of the circulation drawn from past hydrographic measurements, with a westward meandering current associated with a recurrent large anticyclone. Additional idealized numerical experiments illuminate the role various dynamics play in determining the Sea of Marmara circulation and pycnocline structure. Both the wind curl and the strait flows are found to strongly influence the strength and location of the main mesoscale features. Large displacements of the pycnocline depth were observed during the sea trials. These displacements can be interpreted as storm-driven upwelling/downwelling dynamics associated with northeasterly winds; however, lateral advection associated with flow from the Straits also played a role in some displacements.     

Can a minimalist model of wind forced baroclinic Rossby waves produce reasonable results?

The linear theory predicts that Rossby waves are the large scale mechanism of adjustment to perturbations of the geophysical fluid. Satellite measurements of sea level anomaly (SLA) provided sturdy evidence of the existence of these waves. Recent studies suggest that the variability in the altimeter records is mostly due to mesoscale nonlinear eddies and challenges the original interpretation of westward propagating features as Rossby waves. The objective of this work is to test whether a classic linear dynamic model is a reasonable explanation for the observed SLA. A linear-reduced gravity non-dispersive Rossby wave model is used to estimate the SLA forced by direct and remote wind stress. Correlations between model results and observations are up to 0.88. The best agreement is in the tropical region of all ocean basins. These correlations decrease towards insignificance in mid-latitudes. The relative contributions of eastern boundary (remote) forcing and local wind forcing in the generation of Rossby waves are also estimated and suggest that the main wave forming mechanism is the remote forcing. Results suggest that linear long baroclinic Rossby wave dynamics explain a significant part of the SLA annual variability at least in the tropical oceans.     

Evaluation of Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products on South Florida nested simulations with the Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model

The South Florida Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (SoFLA-HYCOM) encompasses a variety of coastal regions (the broad Southwest Florida shelf, the narrow Atlantic Keys shelf, the shallow Florida Bay, and Biscayne Bay) and deep regions (the Straits of Florida), including Marine Protected Areas (the Florida Keys Marine Sanctuary and the Dry Tortugas Ecological Reserve). The presence of the strong Loop Current/Florida Current system and associated eddies connects the local and basin-wide dynamics. A multi-nested approach has been developed to ensure resolution of coastal-scale processes and proper interaction with the large scale flows. The simulations are free running and effects of data assimilation are introduced through boundary conditions derived from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment products. The study evaluates the effects of boundary conditions on the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns by a nested model, applied on a dynamically and topographically complex shelf area. Independent (not assimilated) observations are employed for a quantitative validation of the numerical results. The discussion of the prevailing dynamics that are revealed in both modeled and observed patterns suggests the importance of topography resolution and local forcing on the inner shelf to middle shelf areas, while large scale processes are found to dominate the outer shelf flows. The results indicate that the successful hindcasting of circulation patterns in a coastal area that is characterized by complex topography and proximity to a large scale current system requires a dynamical downscaling approach, with simulations that are nested in a hierarchy of data assimilative outer models.     

Temporal and spatial circulation patterns in the East Frisian Wadden Sea

This work deals with the analysis of simulations carried out with a primitive equation numerical model for the region of the East Frisian Wadden Sea. The model, with 200-m resolution, is forced by wind, air–sea heat, and water fluxes and river runoff and is nested in a German Bight 1-km-resolution numerical model, the latter providing tidal forcing for the fine resolution model. The analysis of numerical simulations is focused both on responses due to moderate conditions, as well as to extreme events, such as the storm surge Britta, for which the model demonstrates very good skills. The question addressed in this paper is how well the model output can be compressed with the help of empirical orthogonal function analysis. It is demonstrated that, for the short-time periods of the order of a spring–neap cycle, only a few modes are necessary to almost fully represent the circulation. This is just an illustration that the circulation in this region is subject to the dominating tidal forcing, creating clear and relatively simple response patterns. However, for longer periods of about several months, wind forcing is also very important, and correspondingly, the circulation patterns become much more complex. Possible applications of the results in hindcasting and forecasting of hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics in the coastal zone are considered.     

Modelling hydrodynamics in Yachiyo Lake using a non‐hydrostatic general circulation model with spatially and temporally varying meteorological conditions

In this study, a three‐dimensional (3D) non‐hydrostatic circulation model was applied to study the thermal structure, its evolution and water circulation of Yachiyo Lake in Hiroshima, Japan. The simulations were conducted for 1 month during July 2006. The meteorological forcing variables such as wind stress, surface atmospheric pressure and heat flux transfer through the lake surface were provided by an atmospheric mesoscale model run. The vertical mixing process of the lake was calculated using the Mellor‐Yamada turbulence model. The 1‐month numerical simulation revealed the wind‐induced currents of the lake, two gyres in the mid‐layer, and depth‐averaged monthly mean currents. Further numerical experiments studying the mechanism of the two gyres in the lake showed the important role of topography in gyre formation. The thermal structure of the lake and its evolution both in space and in time as predicted by the model showed very good agreement with the observed values and characteristics of Yachiyo Lake. The internal gravity waves, which are crucial for mixing in the stratified lake, are depicted by the vertical fluctuation of isotherms. Using the non‐dimensional gradient Richardson number, Yachiyo Lake was determined to be stable under strong stratification during the study period, and therefore very sensitive to wind stress. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disentangling the upwelling mechanisms of the South Brazil Bight

This article presents a suite of long-term numerical simulations that investigate the dynamical mechanisms controlling the circulation in the South Brazil Bight (SBB). The overarching goal of these simulations is to quantify the relative contributions of local wind forcing and the Brazil Current (BC) to the upwelling of nutrient-rich slope water onto the shelf. The model results indicate that the water mass structure of the SBB is controlled by the synergy between wind-driven, inner-shelf upwelling and geostrophic, shelf-break upwelling. The later extends yearlong but the former peaks during the austral summer and decreases towards the winter. The interaction between the poleward flow of the BC and the bottom topography greatly influences the shelf circulation, particularly in the bottom boundary layer. Changes of the SBB coastline direction and shelf width modulate the along-shore pressure gradient and the magnitude of the shelf-break upwelling and downwelling. Thus, although the summer upwelling winds extend over large part of the SBB surface temperatures are warmer in the south because of the cooling effect of the shelf-break upwelling in the northern region. At difference with previous studies of shelf-break dynamics the shelf-break upwelling in our model is not controlled by the uplifting associated with the presence of instabilities of the boundary current or nonlinear accelerations under a variable shelf width. The proposed mechanism is relatively simple. As the boundary current flows along the continental slope, changes in the coastline orientation and along-shore bottom topography modify the along-shore pressure gradient which through geostrophy leads to inshore bottom flow and hence shelf-break upwelling. Such a mechanism can provide insight into upwellings on other western boundary current regions where similar topographic variations exist.