内蒙古数值天气预报集成方法初探

内蒙古气象台业务使用的降水量数值预报产品有:T213、T639、MM5、日本、德国数值预报场。各模式的预报准确率有较大差异。利用常规高空、地面观测资料和不同数值预报产品资料,在检验多个业务数值预报模式降水预报准确率基础上,借鉴集合预报新技术,完成对内蒙古数值预报集成试验。逐日滚动评定各种模式预报质量,优选高质量的模式作为集成对象,建立针对内蒙古降水的集成预报方程,并根据不同模式的预报准确率,动态分配预报方程的权重系数。     

重庆雾的完全预报方法

本方法从动力、统计相结合的角度出发,利用多年历史资料,采用逐步回归方法并辅以技术处理,求得非线性回归方程为PP模型的预报方程,并且利用正压模式输出的两个月数值预报产品进行了试报,结果表明该模型对重庆雾的24小时预报具有一定的能力。     

复杂地形下冰雹预报的数值试验研究

充分考虑贵州低纬、高原山区特色,首先模拟由于下垫面的热力和动力不均匀造成的强对流云的初始扰动.在此初始扰动的基础上,用完全弹性三维冰雹云数值模式,模拟雹云的发生发展过程,对冰雹进行数值预报研究.通过现场试验和个例分析,发现模式能反映雹云的发生、发展等变化规律,并能对冰雹天气作预报,预报概括率为81%.     

中国海风能密度预报

利用NCEP预报风场,对2013年3月中旬发生在中国海的一次强冷空气过程进行分析,并利用预报风场计算得到这期间的风能密度,实现"风能密度数值预报",可为风电机采集风能提供日常保障,以提高装备的采集、转换效率。结果表明,1)NCEP预报风场可以很好地刻画冷空气给中国海带来的大风过程,从曲线走势、相关系数、偏差、均方根误差、平均绝对误差等分析也发现,NCEP预报风速在中国海具有很高精度。2)冷空气影响的海域,伴有明显的大风的过程,风能密度也出现明显的增幅。冷空气影响渤海时,该海域大部分区域的风速在10 m/s以上,大值中心在16 m/s以上;风能密度基本都在1 400 W/m2以上。冷空气影响的海域容易出现10 m/s以上的大风,对应区域的风能密度基本都在1 400 W/m2以上;冷空气的边缘海域风速也在8 m/s以上,风能密度在350 W/m2以上。3)利用NCEP预报风场,对海上风电场的风速、风能密度进行预报是可行的,可为风能开发、防灾减灾提供科学依据。     

基于Python的“地理处理”并行方案

在传统方式下,ArcGIS地理处理工具的执行过程不能充分利用高性能多核计算机的全部运算能力处理日益增加的地理数据,导致数据处理效率低下。本文在分析地理处理工具特点的基础上,充分利用Python语言的并行编程特点,构建具有通用性的地理处理任务并行运行解决方案。结合ArcGIS软件自身的特质,有效解决了并行运行所带来的数据竞争、数据共享与进程通讯等问题,达到了一定硬件环境条件下ArcGIS工具执行效率最大化的目的。通过典型地理处理任务中不同运行方式效率的对比测试与分析,证明了并行运行的有效性。     

地基GPS探测水汽的发展与气象业务应用

介绍了地基GPS探测大气可降水量在国内外的发展、灾害性天气监测分析预报、中尺度数值预报模式初始场、全球气候变化的监测和分析、人工影响天气作业、三维水汽场层析分析以及GPS探测水汽在气象领域中应用的现状.     

阿坝州7-8月区域暴雨分析预报

通过对1974～1985年,这12年区域性暴雨的环流形势、暴雨形成的原因、暴雨落区预报的着眼点等进行分析,建立了短期暴雨预报方法.     

BDS卫星钟差短期预报性能分析

采用BDS精密钟差数据进行短期预报实验,通过线性模型、二次多项式模型、灰色模型和Kalman滤波模型对14颗BDS卫星的钟差预报效果进行比较和分析,总结不同类型卫星的钟差预报性能和利用各模型进行BDS卫星钟差预报的相关特性。     

GRAPES-Meso模式动力框架与物理过程对预报误差影响研究

为了研究GRAPES-Meso区域中尺度模式误差特点,评估模式动力框架和物理过程对预报误差的影响重要性,为GRAPES区域集合预报系统方案设计提供参考,基于GRAPES中尺度模式设计了4组对比试验,每组试验对2008年3个不同类型天气过程进行了数值模拟,获得如下结论:(1)GRAPES-Meso模式存在较为显著的系统性误差,系统性误差水平和垂直分布特征主要由GRAPES模式动力框架产生,物理过程对系统性误差影响相对较小;(2)在模式层底和模式层顶,GRAPES模式层与等压面层转换方案中,预报存在较为明显的垂直插值误差;(3)边界层方案对GRAPES模式低层动力场预报误差有重要影响,可以显著减少模式低层动力场预报误差。结果表明减少动力框架预报误差是改进GRAPES-Meso模式的重点,在GRAPES-Meso集合预报系统的设计中,需要重点考虑动力框架引起的模式不确定性。     

面向复杂城市场景的Sort-First并行绘制系统中负载平衡与性能分析

在高精度建模方法越来越丰富的背景下,三维城市场景往往具有较大的场景规模和较高的复杂性,因此,当单台计算机难以满足实时绘制的需求时,多采用更加适合超高分辨率大屏幕显示的Sort-First方式进行并行绘制。针对现有研究性能量化分析的缺乏,及自适应负载平衡方法的缺陷,本文通过Sort-First并行绘制系统的加速比模型,分析绘制节点数、显示分辨率、网络传输速度、任务划分等因素对系统性能的影响,以及将绘制时间和传输时间的和作为反馈,对现有负载平衡策略进行了改进。本文给出了系统达到最高加速比,即负载完全均衡理想情况下的一个量化的必要条件。最后,基于Sort-First的并行绘制实验验证上述分析。实验结果表明:本文的改进加强了各节点的负载平衡性,在一定程度上提高了性能。     

Thermohaline structure inhomogeneity associated with polynia at the northern margin of Emery Ice-shelf

Based on the hydrographic data in austral summer during the 22nd Antarctic Expedition of China(2005/2006),some features can be found about the northern margin of Emery ice shelf as follows.The heat content in the surface layer(0-50 m) at the eastern end and the western end of the ice-shelf margin is much higher than that at the middle.The upper mixing-layer depth and the seasonal thermocline depth at the middle of the ice-shelf northern margin are much shallower than those at the both ends.However there is much less difference between the middle and the ends in the bottom layer.The remote sensing photos show that the inhomogeneity in the surface-layer water is closely related to the spatial distribution of the floes and polynia in the area.     

Phylogenetic analysis of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice

Phylogenetic analysis based on 16S rDNA of 8 strains of cultivable bacteria isolated from Arctic sea-ice was studied.The results showed that strain BJ1 belonged to genus Planococcus,which was a genus of low mole percent G C gram-positive bacteria;strain BJ6 belonged to genus Burkholderia of β-proteobacteria and the rest 6 strain all belonged to γ-proteobacteria,of which strain BJ8 was a species of Pseudoalteromonas,strain BJ2-BJ5 and BJ7 were members of genus Psychrobacter.Phylogenetic analysis also indicated that bacteria of genus Psychrobacter of the isolates formed a relatively independent phylogenetic cluster in comparison with other bacteria belonged to genus Psychrobacter.     

Information for authors

正1 Aims and Scope Advances in Polar Science(APS)is an international,peer-reviewed journal jointly sponsored by the Polar Research Institute of China and the Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration.APS is a comprchensive academic journal dedicated to presentation of multi-disciplinary achievements in Arctic and Antarctic expeditions and research.Its primary purpose is to publish achievements in fundamental research,applied     

Advances in Polar Science CONTENTS(Volume 25,2014)

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Guide to Authors： Journal of Mountain Science

<正>AIMS AND SCOPE(Editorial Policy)The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)is devoted to mountains and their surrounding lowlands-ecoregions of particular global importance,with a particular emphasis on the important highlands/mountains in the world,such as the Tibetan Plateau,the Himalayas,the Alps,the Andes,the Rockies and many other mountain ranges of our planet.     

Journal of Mountain Science(JMS)

<正>The Journal of Mountain Science(JMS),founded in2004,is an international English-language journal on mountain sciences.JMS is supervised by the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS),sponsored by the Chengdu Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,CAS,published by Science Press China,and distributed by Springer exclusively throughout the world(excluding Mainland China).The JMS is published bimonthly,fulltexted in SpringerLink and CNKI,indexed/abstracted by     

Relationship of Arctic sea ice and Northern Hemispheric 500 hPa Polar vortices

Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly 500 hPa height data on a 2.5 latitude-longitude grid and 1°×1° sea ice data,the polar vortex area,intensity index and arctic sea ice area index are calculated respectively,and the meridional distribution,period variation and the abrupts in the long range trend are analyzed to study their relationship.The results show that the meridional distribution of sea ice and polar vortex h-ave distinctive difference,the relative positions of them are different in the eastern and western hemispheres,and exept they have periods of 4 months,quasi half year,quasi year,4-5 years and 10 years commonly,and each of them has its own respective variation as well.The sea ice area is decreasing apparently since 1980's,so is the polar vortex area,but their abrupt changge time are different totally.The area of sea ice and polar vortex has prominent positive correlation,but the relationship of sea ice intensity,polar vortex intensity,polar vortex area is complicated.     

Preliminary study on plasma membrane fluidity of Psychrophilic Yeast Rhodotorula sp.NJ298 in low temperature

The ability of cell to modulate the fluidity of plasma membrane was crucial to the survival of microorganism at low temperature. Plasma membrane proteins, fatty acids and carotenoids profiles of Antarctic psychrophilc yeast Rhodotorula sp. NJ298 were investigated at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. The results showed that plasma membrane protein content was greater at -3 ℃ than that at 8 ℃, and a unique membrane polypeptide composition with an apparent molecular mass of 94.7 kDa was newly synthesized with SDS-PAGE analysis; GC analysis showed that the main changes of fatty acids were the percentage of unsaturated fatty acids (C18∶ 1 and C18∶ 2) and shorter chain saturated fatty acid (C10∶ 0) increased along with the decrease of the culture temperature from 8 ℃ to -3 ℃; HPLC analysis indicated that astaxanthin was the major functional carotenoids of the plasma membrane, percentage of which increased from 54.6±1.5% at 8 ℃ to 81.9±2.1% at -3 ℃. However the fluidity of plasma membrane which was determined by measuring fluorescence anisotropy was similar at -3 ℃, 0 ℃ and 8 ℃. Hence these changes in plasma membrane's characteristics were involved in the cellular cold-adaptation by which NJ298 could maintain normal plasma membrane fluidity at near-freezing temperature.     

Author Index for Journal of Mountain Science Volume 11,2014,pp 1-1656

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