Relation between the photospheric magnetic field and phases of a 22-year solar cycle

Strong magnetic fields at latitudes of ±40° are studied on the basis of synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic field from the Kitt Peak Observatory (1976–2003). The time variations and imbalance between positive and negative magnetic fluxes are studied for the Southern and Northern hemispheres. A change in the imbalance between fluxes of leading/following sunspots with a 22-year magnetic cycle is shown. The imbalance sign coincides with the sign of the global magnetic field in the Northern/Southern solar hemispheres, respectively.     

Estimate of the effect of the 11-year solar activity cycle on the ozone content in the stratosphere

Using spectral, cross-spectral, and regression methods, we analyzed the effect of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on the ozone content in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere via satellite measurement data obtained with the help of SBUV/SBUV2 instruments in 1978–2003. We revealed a high coherence between the ozone content and solar activity level on the solar cycle scale. In much of this area, the ozone content varies approximately in phase with the solar cycle; however, in areas of significant gradients of ozone mixing ratio in the middle stratosphere, the phase shift between ozone and solar oscillations can be considerable, up to π/2. This can be caused by dynamical processes. The altitude maxima of ozone sensitivity to the 11-year solar cycle were found in the upper vicinity of the stratopause (50–55 km), in the middle stratosphere (35–40 km), and the lower stratosphere (below 25 km). Maximal changes in ozone content in the solar cycle (up to 10% and more) were found in winter and spring in polar regions.     

Certain regularities of solar activity variations during the 11-year cycle

The relationships between a number of the main characteristic parameters of the cycle—amplitude, half-width, and growth phase duration—and the approximation parameters, which make it possible to estimate the average behavior of 11-year activity, have been derived based on the obtained analytical representations of the regularities in the solar activity variations during the cycle. Quasibiennial variations proceeding against a background of the cycle are distinctly associated with the solar magnetic field structure and the structure representation variations in the corona and in the flux of the solar neutrino radiation. This makes it possible to state that all these processes are parts of the common physical mechanism of solar variability.     

The signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the global stratosphere

The search for a signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the heights and temperatures of the lower stratosphere was previously successfully conducted for the northern hemisphere with a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin, covering four solar cycles. This work has been extended to the whole globe by means of the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the period 1968–1996. The re-analyses show that the signal exists in the southern hemisphere too, and that it is of nearly the same size and shape as on the northern hemisphere. The NCEP/NCAR reanalyses yield higher correlations with the solar cycle than do the Berlin analyses for the same period, because the interannual variability is lower in the NCEP/NCAR data.The correlations between the solar cycle and the zonally averaged temperatures at the standard levels between 200 and 10 hPa are largest between the tropopause and the 25 km level, that is, in the ozone layer. This may be partly a direct effect in this layer, because of more absorber (ozone) and more ultraviolet radiation from the sun in the peaks of the 11-year solar cycle. However, it is more likely to be mainly an indirect dynamical consequence of UV absorption by ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere.The largest temperature correlations move with the sun from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward from winter to summer.     

The 11-year solar cycle affects the intensity and annularity of the Arctic Oscillation

We investigate the dependence of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) in winter on the solar activity by stratifying the data into overlapping intervals defined by percentiles of the 10.7 cm radio flux. The AO exhibits a complex dependence of its polarity, being weakest under low, but not minimum, solar activity, while strongest in solar maxima. The AO is more/less variable (i.e., more/less active) under a high/low solar activity. Under a moderate solar activity, its Pacific centre weakens and eventually disappears. These effects seem to be real in spite of a potential for mixing the AO with the second principal component due to sampling errors caused by insufficient spacing between the first two eigenvalues. The weakening of the Pacific centre is not a result of coincidence with major volcanic eruptions or specific phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.     

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the temperature in the lower stratosphere

Two temperature datasets are analyzed for quantifying the 11-year solar cycle effect in the lower stratosphere. The analysis is based on a regression linear model that takes into account volcanic, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Under solar maximum conditions, temperatures are generally warmer for low- and mid-latitudes than under solar minimum, with the effect being the strongest in northern summer. At high latitudes, the vortex is generally stronger under solar maximum conditions, with the exception of February and to a lesser extent March in the Northern Hemisphere; associated with this positive signal at high latitudes, there is a significant negative signal at the equator. Observations also suggest that contrary to the beginning of the winter, in February–March, the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is enhanced. A better understanding of the mechanisms at work comes from further investigations using the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. First, a consistent response in terms of temperature and wind is obtained. Moreover, considering Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence and residual circulation stream functions, we found an increased circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February during solar maxima, which results in more adiabatic warming at high latitudes and more adiabatic cooling at low latitudes, thus demonstrating the dynamical origin of the response of the low stratosphere to the solar cycle.     

Relations of latitudinal characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases

Using sunspot data for cycles 12 to 23, we have investigated relations of some latitude characteristics of sunspot groups to the 11-year cycle amplitude at different phases. We have revealed a high correlation (with correlation coefficients >0.9) between the middle latitude of sunspot groups at phases of rise, maximum, and decay, on the one hand, and the amplitude of the corresponding cycle, on the other hand. We have shown that the maxima of the velocity of the motion of the sunspot formation zone to the equator have a special physical meaning: the rise phase of the 11-year cycle is characterized by significant correlations between the cycle amplitude and the maximum for the lowest boundary, and the cycle decay phase is characterized by the same maximum for the highest boundary. We have built equations allowing one to determine the amplitude of the 11-year cycle on the basis of data on the given latitudinal characteristics of sunspots groups.     

The connection between characteristic values of the 11-year cycles of solar and of geomagnetic activity

Summary Using the annual values of the indices of solar and geomagnetic activity for the period 1868–1976, the basic values characterizing the cycle as a whole were determined for the 11-year cycles nos 11–20, (Tab. 1). High values of the coefficients of correlation were found for some pairs of characteristic values of the same and different kinds, given in Tab. 2, which can be utilized for long-term predictions of geomagnetic activity.

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a auu¶rt;u au u¶rt; uaum amumu muu 1868–1976 n¶rt; ¶rt; 11-mu u 11–20 naam aamuu u a (a. 1). u au uuma uu ¶rt; m na naam ¶rt;ua u ¶rt;ua ¶rt;a (a. 2), m m amu nuu nu ¶rt; nuauuaum amumu.

     

太阳活动11年周期对气象参数影响

利用多种资料研究了太阳活动11年周期对全球气温、风场、海表温度(SST)的影响,结果表明:(1)在第21、22太阳活动周,中低纬对流层顶以上大气温度变化具有类似太阳黑子变化的11年左右周期,相对于太阳黑子数,气温变化具有1～2年的延迟性;相对于太阳活动低年,200～10 hPa大气在太阳活动高年整层增温,以赤道低纬地区...     

Manifestation of 22-year solar magnetic cycle in the imbalance between positive and negative photospheric magnetic fluxes

Time variations in strong and weak photospheric magnetic fields have been considered based on synoptic maps from the Kitt Peak observatory for 1976?C2003. The magnetic fields of positive and negative polarities of the Northern and Southern hemispheres of the Sun and their imbalance were studied. It has been indicated that different groups of magnetic fields vary with 11-or 22-year periods depending on their values. The difference between positive and negative fluxes for each hemisphere always varies with a 22-year period. For weak fields, the 22-year cycle is related to the manifestation of the global solar magnetic field. For strong fields, the imbalance between positive and negative fluxes reflects the predominant role of leading sunspots in a given solar hemisphere. It has been detected that the total magnetic flux over the entire solar disk varies with an 11-year period in antiphase with the solar activity cycle for the weakest magnetic fields (0?C5 G).     

太阳绕太阳系质心运动22年周期及其与太阳活动的联系

对于太阳活动22年周期的成因机制长期存在着争论.本文借助于行星会合指数以及开普勒第三定律,对太阳绕太阳系质心运动周期进行了分析计算.结果发现,太阳绕太阳系质心运动存在22.1826年显著周期,这与太阳磁场变化的22.20年周期相吻合.并从太阳系角动量守恒的角度解释了两者之间的成因联系:在太阳绕太阳系质心运动的准22年周期中,太阳系质心与太阳质心逐步接近而后逐步分离.当两个质心之间的距离接近零的时候,太阳轨道角动量与自转角动量叠加,会导致太阳自转角速度的加快;当两个质心之间的距离逐渐远离的时候,则导致太阳自转角速度的减慢.这可能是引发太阳活动和太阳磁场变化的原因.这一新认识为太阳活动准22年周期成因机制的解释提供了新的线索和依据.     

Relationship of atmospheric ozone profiles to solar magnetic activity

The observed relationship between atmospheric vorticity variations and solar magnetic sector boundary passages is examined for a possible connection via ionization changes affecting ozone distributions. A superposed epoch analysis was performed on Umkehr distributions for 18 years from Arosa, Switzerland, with use of more than 500 solar sector boundary passages as keyday zero. No significant responses are observed in any Umkehr level or in total observed ozone amounts. Further analyses on shorter records for Belsk, Poland, and Hohenpeissenberg, West Germany, corroborate these results. Another analysis for Arosa with about 100 type IV solar flares as keyday zero also shows no definitive trend. It is concluded that ozone distribution changes cannot be the primary causative mechanism for vorticity variations.Journal Paper No. J-8838 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 1852.     

Hysteresis of indices of solar and ionospheric activity during 11-year cycles

The effects of hysteresis, which is a manifestation of ambiguous relationships between different solar activity indices during the rising and declining phases of solar cycles, are analyzed. The paper addresses the indices characterizing radiation from the solar photosphere, chromosphere, and corona, and the ionospheric indices. The 21st, 22nd, and 23rd solar cycles, which significantly differ from each other in amplitude, exhibit different extents of hysteresis.     

The variability of foF2 in different phases of solar cycle 23

In this paper we examined the variations of the foF2 with solar activity for different local time and different seasons. Beside this we evaluated International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) models at different phases of solar cycle 23, different latitudes and different local time. We studied F2 layer critical frequency (foF2) of the ionosphere by using the flare index calculated by the Kandilli Observatory. For this purpose, we identified the months similar with high flare activity during the solar cycle 23. We chose 6 months which represented the different phases (ascending branch, maximum and descending branch) of the solar cycle. We also took into account the fact that these months were in different seasons. The hourly monthly means of observed foF2 data from four ionosonde stations for 6 months were calculated. On the other hand, the identical foF2 values of the same months were calculated for the year 1996, which is the minimum year of the previous solar activity cycle. We subtracted the foF2 values of 1996 from the values of the selected months of the last solar cycle to obtain the residuals, Δ(foF2). Then the magnitude of the residuals is compared through the cycle. We used IRI-2007 as well as IRI-2001 models to see the degree of deviation of the observed results from the predicted ones. We found that the predicted values of the ΔfoF2, which are calculated by the IRI-2007, fitted well with the observed Δ(foF2) and showed that the Δ(foF2) are dependent on the solar cycle variations in general.     

The 11-year solar cycle, the Sun's rotation, and the middle stratosphere in winter. Part II: Response of planetary waves

The effect of the 11-year solar cycle on the response of planetary wavenumbers 1 and 2 at 10 and 30 hPa in winter to solar activity oscillations on the time scale of the Sun's rotation (27.2 day) is discussed in terms of statistical spectral analysis. The three oscillations studied are the 27.2 d (period of the Sun's rotation), 25.3 d (periodicity caused by modulation of the 27.2 d stratospheric response by annual atmospheric variation), and 54.4 d (doubled period of the solar rotation). A significant effect of the 11-year solar cycle is found for the 54.4 d periodicity in planetary wavenumber 1, and for the 27.2 and 25.3 d periodicities in planetary wavenumber 2. The effect of the 11-year solar cycle is expressed in the evident differences between the amplitudes of responses of planetary waves at maximum and minimum of the solar cycle: the amplitudes are much larger at high than at low solar activity. The 11-year modulation of planetary wave activity is most pronounced at mid-latitudes, mainly at 40–60°N, where the observed variability of planetary waves is large. The results obtained are in good agreement with results of the recent modeling study by Shindell et al. (Science 284 (1999) 305).