Evidence of global-scale waves with zonal wave number zero in the stratosphere

Coherency spectra derived from time series of stratospheric quantities indicate oscillations in the frequency range below 0.5 d^–1 which are correlated on a global scale. Satellite observations of total ozone and stratospheric radiance (BUV and SIRS, Nimbus4, April–November 1970) have been used to derive phase relationships of such oscillations. As an example, an oscillation of total ozone with a period of 7.5 d and zonal wave number zero is analyzed in detail. The basic assumption is made and tested, that the oscillation reflects stratospheric planetary waves as obtained from Laplace's tidal equations. The observed latitudinal phase shifts for the total ozone oscillation are in good agreement with theoretical predictions. It is concluded from the observations of ozone and radiance that mainly divergence effects related to global-scale waves are responsible for the 7.5 d oscillations of total ozone at high and middle latitudes and at the equator whereas in the latitude range 10°S–20°S predominantly temperature effects are important. Meridional wind amplitudes of some 10 cm/s are sufficient to explain the high and mid-latitude ozone oscillations. At low latitudes vertical wind amplitudes of about 0.2 mm/s corresponding to height changes of the ozone layer of roughly ±20 m are obtained.     

Evolution of energetic electron fluxes at a geostationary orbit during solar cycles 22 and 23. 27-day variations

In this paper, we consider variations in energetic electron fluxes at a geostationary orbit, which are related to the Sun’s rotation period, during two solar cycles. We use data on energetic electron fluxes obtained from the GOES (1986–2007) (>2 MeV) and LANL (1996–2007) (50–225 and 315–1500 keV) satellites. Within the solar cycle, we observed both periods of high flux peak recurrence during several rotations and periods when there was no (or a low) 27-day recurrence. We show the similarity and difference between manifestations of flux recurrences from cycle to cycle. Insignificant manifestation of recurrence and its absence were observed mainly during the solar maximum. High electron flux recurrence was observed mainly at the phase of decline in solar activity (near the solar minimum). We show that for both solar cycles, there were several days (within the Bartels rotation) during which increased energetic electron fluxes would be most likely observed.     

北京地区臭氧垂直分布的演变趋势与特征的研究——卫星SBUV资料与地面遥感对比分析

利用地面遥感O_3垂直分布的逆转方法〈C〉测量出的北京上空O_3剖面资料,对雨云7号卫星的SBUV系统测量的同地区的O_3垂直分布数据进行了订正.对订正后的长达8年(1979—1986年)的完整的SBUV资料进行了较为仔细的分析,得出了这一时期内的O_3垂直分布长期演变呈下降趋势.并在上层O_3含量的季节变化特征和周期振荡等方面,有新的发现,得出一些有意义的结果.     

Quasisecular cyclicity in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere and its possible relation to solar activity variations

Paleoclimatological reconstructions of temperature of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere for the last thousand years have been studied using the up-to-date methods of statistical analysis. It has bee indicated that the quasisecular (a period of 60–130 years) cyclicity, which is observed in the climate of the Earth’s Northern Hemisphere, has a bimodal structure, i.e., being composed of the 60–85 and 85–130 year periodicities. The possible relation of the quasisecular climatic rhythm to the corresponding Gleissberg solar cycle has been studied using the solar activity reconstructions performed with the help of the solar paleoastrophysics methods.     

Simultaneous observations of the natural electromagnetic emission in the ELF-VLF range at Kamchatka and in Yakutia during the solar eclipse of August 1, 2008

The effect of the solar eclipse that occurred on August 1, 2008, on the level of the natural electro-magnetic emission signals in the ELF-VLF range, simultaneously observed at Kamchatka and in Yakutsk, and the variations in the amplitude and phase of signals from the VLF radiostations, registered in Yakutsk, has been considered. The VLF radiostations in Krasnodar, Novosibirsk, and Khabarovsk successively emitted signals at frequencies of 11 905, 12 649, and 14 880 Hz. Based on the observations of the signals from these radiostations, it has been established that the signal amplitudes and phases increased by 3–5% and 30°–45° when the signals crossed the lunar shadow region. The synchronous registration of the ELF-VLF noise emission indicated that a bay-like increase and the following decrease in the emission to the background level was observed at both receiving points during the eclipse from ∼1000 to 1130 UT. This effect was registered at frequencies of 0.6–5.6 kHz in Yakutsk and at lower (30–200 Hz) and higher (2.5–11 kHz) frequencies at Kamchatka. In this case the noise emission intensity maximum was observed when the lunar shadow maximally approached the registration point. At higher frequencies, the emission maximum was observed simultaneously at both points (at 1100 UT) but with a delay relative to the maximum at lower frequencies. The possible causes of the appearance of the solar eclipse effects in the natural ELF-VLF emission are considered.     

北京地区臭氧垂直分布的演变趋势与特征的研究——卫星SBUV资料与地面遥感对比分析

利用地面遥感O₃垂直分布的逆转方法〈C〉测量出的北京上空O₃剖面资料,对雨云7号卫星的SBUV系统测量的同地区的O₃垂直分布数据进行了订正.对订正后的长达8年（1979-1986年）的完整的SBUV资料进行了较为仔细的分析,得出了这一时期内的O₃垂直分布长期演变呈下降趋势.并在上层O₃含量的季节变化特征和周期振荡等方面,有新的发现,得出一些有意义的结果.     

Multi-scale variability and trends of precipitation in North China

The issue of water shortage and related eco-environmental degradation in North China is one of the major emerging problems in China. Precipitation is the most key factor for water resources. Based on the historical flood/dryness grade dataset during the period of 1470–2000 obtained from 25 gauging stations in North China, the multi-scale variability and trends are analyzed by means of power spectral and continuous wavelet transform. It is found that the precipitation is characterized by obvious seasonal changes, quasi biennial oscillations, inter-annual 4–7 year component and inter-decadal 19-year periodicity. The MK test results showe that step changes occurred around 1914 and 1964 in the annual precipitation. As for the historical flood/dryness grade time series, it is characterized by 4∼5 year ENSO mode inter-annual oscillation, quasi-10 year inter-decadal variability, quasi-24 year component and 50–80 year centurial periodicity. However, the scales of these variations have decreased significantly since the 1970s. The trend for precipitation change in North China has been negative for last 30 years. Further research shows that North China will continue to become dryer until 2015 and may change to a wetter regime after 2020. These findings should be helpful for future decision-making to ensure sustainable water resource management in North China.     

Long-term modulation of galactic cosmic rays at solar activity minimums

Based on observations of long-term variations in galactic cosmic rays (CRs) on Earth and in the near-Earth space, we have determined, using our own semiempirical model, modulation of galactic CRs during solar cycles 19–23. The modulation model relates CR variations to the characteristics of the solar magnetic field obtained for the surface of the solar wind source at distances of 2.50 and 3.25 solar radii. The main focus is CR behavior at the minimums of cycles 19–23 and specific features of CR modulation at a prolonged (as compared to previous cycles) minimum of cycle 23, which is still ongoing. CR modulation at minimums related to a change in the solar field dipole component during this period of the cycle has been considered. It is indicated that the long-term variations in CRs are better described if the last two years (2007 and 2008) of cycle 23 with anomalously low solar activity (SA) are included in the model. The role and value of the contribution of the cyclic variations in each index used in the proposed CR modulation model to the observed CR modulation have been estimated.     

The sunspot cycle, the QBO, and the total ozone over Northeastern Europe: a connection through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation

The interaction between the factors of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and the 11-year solar cycle is considered as an separate factor influencing the interannual January–March variations of total ozone over Northeastern Europe. Linear correlation analysis and the running correlation method are used to examine possible connections between ozone and solar activity at simultaneous moment the QBO phase. Statistically significant correlations between the variations of total ozone in February and, partially, in March, and the sunspot numbers during the different phases of QBO are found. The running correlation method between the ozone and the equatorial zonal wind demonstrates a clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Modulation is clearer if the QBO phases are defined at the level of 50 hPa rather than at 30 hPa. The same statistical analyses are conducted also for possible connections between the index of stratospheric circulation C₁ and sunspot numbers considering the QBO phase. Statistically significant connections are found for February. The running correlations between the index C₁ and the equatorial zonal wind show the clear modulation of 11-y solar signal for February and March. Based on the obtained correlations between the interannual variations of ozone and index C₁, it may be concluded that a connection between solar cycle – QBO – ozone occurs through the dynamics of stratospheric circulation.     

Solar UV variability: Effects on stratospheric ozone,trace constituents and thermal structure

The effect of long-term (11-year solar cycle) solar UV variability on stratospheric chemical and thermal structure has been studied using a time-dependent one-dimensional model. Previous studies have suggested substantial variations in local and total ozone, and in stratospheric thermal structure from solar minimum to solar maximum. It is shown here that significant variations also occur in some of the trace constituents. Members of the HO _x family and N₂O exhibit the largest variations, and these changes, if detected, may provide additional means of verifying the presence of solar UV variability and its effects. Some of the species show large phase differences with the assumed solar flux variation. The role of chemical and transport time constants on the time variations of the trace species is examined. Comparisons with reported ozone and temperature data show reasonable agreement for the period 1960 to 1972.     

Influence of solar activity on variations in the density of the Earth’s upper atmosphere

This article studies long-period variations in the Earth’s upper atmosphere density over several solar activity cycles, using long-term data on the evolution of motion of three artificial satellites (Intercosmos-19, Meteor-1-2, and Cosmos-1154) in orbits at heights of 400–1000 km. The time interval when the satellites were in the orbits covered three solar activity cycles (partly the 21st, completely the 22nd, and partly the 23rd). It is found that the variations in the average density of the upper atmosphere at heights of 400–600 km in the 1980–2000 period were governed by the changes in the solar activity level.     

Experimental evidence for direct penetration of ULF waves from the solar wind and their possible effect on acceleration of radiation belt electrons

The event of March 12–19, 2009, when a moderately high-speed solar wind stream flew around the Earth’s magnetosphere and carried millihertz ultralow-frequency (ULF) waves, has been analyzed. The stream caused a weak magnetic storm (D _{st min} = −28 nT). Since March 13, fluxes of energetic (up to relativistic) electrons started increasing in the magnetosphere. Comparison of the spectra of ULF oscillations observed in the solar wind and magnetosphere and on the Earth’s surface indicated that a stable common spectral peak was present at frequencies of 3–4 mHz. This fact is interpreted as evidence that waves penetrated directly from the solar wind into the magnetosphere. Possible scenarios describing the participation of oscillations in the acceleration of medium-energy (E > 0.6 MeV) and high-energy (E > 2.0 MeV) electrons in the radiation belt are discussed. Based on comparing the event with the moderate magnetic storm of January 21–22, 2005, we concluded that favorable conditions for analyzing the interaction between the solar wind and the magnetosphere are formed during a deep minimum of solar activity.     

北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素分析

本文基于1979—2014年臭氧总量的卫星遥感数据,利用多元线性回归模型对臭氧总量数据序列进行模拟计算,考察了北太平洋上空臭氧总量长期变化趋势及其影响因素的作用.结果表明,北太平洋地区大气臭氧总量长期变化呈现减少趋势,但是减少速率随季节和纬度带表现出差异性,在各纬度带臭氧峰值季节臭氧下降趋势最为显著.在0°—15°N地区臭氧高值出现在夏秋季节并在8月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率约为0.2DU/a;15°—30°N亚热带地区臭氧高值出现在春夏季并在5月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降速率约为0.22DU/a;而在30°—45°N中纬度地区臭氧高值出现在冬春季并在2月达到峰值,峰值月份臭氧年均下降率0.75DU/a.在臭氧分布年平均态基础上,影响臭氧总量分布变化的因素主要有臭氧损耗物质(EESC)、太阳辐射周期(Solar)、准两年振荡(QBO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)等.其中,EESC导致臭氧损耗效应随着纬度升高而增大,在从低到高的三个纬度带损耗最大值分别为11DU、16DU和66DU;Solar增强导致臭氧增加,在三个纬度带的增加效应最大值分别为16DU、17DU和19DU;QBO@10hPa和QBO@30hPa对臭氧影响幅度基本在±10DU内波动,只有QBO@10hPa对30°—45°N区域的影响作用达到14DU,值得注意的是QBO影响作用随着纬度变化存在相位差异,在0°—15°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相同相位,而在15°—30°N和30°—45°N区域臭氧变化与QBO呈现相反相位;ENSO对各个纬度带臭氧影响幅度也在±10DU内,ENSO影响作用在不同纬度带也存在相位差异,臭氧总量变化在0°—15°N、15°—30°N区域与ENSO相位相反,在30°—45°N区域与ENSO相位一致.     

Long-term solar cycles according to data on the cosmogenic beryllium concentration in ice of central Greenland

Data on the concentrations of the cosmogenic ¹⁰Be isotope and Na⁺ and Ca²⁺ ions, as well as on ice accumulation rates in central Greenland, obtained by the GISP2 collaboration were studied in a time interval spanning about 40 000 recent years. Joint analysis of the indicated glacial and chemical paleoseries demonstrated that in a period from 12 008 to 24 008 years ago, the ¹⁰Be flux variations were most free of influence of climate and changes in the geomagnetic dipole moment. As a consequence, this time interval is most suitable for studying periodicities of purely solar nature. Statistical analysis of the ¹⁰Be flux data has revealed significant variations with periods of 500–800 years and 1300–1600 years in the time interval from 12 008 to 17 008 years ago. This evidence favors the existence of the appropriate cycles of solar activity in the mentioned epoch. Similar periodicities are also revealed in the time interval from 3288 to 8008 years ago.     

Estimate of seasonal changes in the intensity of the infrared atmospheric system of molecular oxygen

On the basis of measurements of the intensity of 1.58-μm emissions of the Infrared Atmospheric System of molecular oxygen (IRAO₂) conducted at the Zvenigorod scientific station of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (φ = 55.7°N, λ = 36.8°E), seasonal variations are estimated for various solar zenith angles. Their amplitude has the maximum value at the solar zenith angles χ _S ∼ 105–110°. It decreases at χ _S ∼ 125–130° and tends to zero at χ _S ∼ 80–85°. The comparison of currently measured values of the 1.58-μm emission intensity of the Infrared Atmospheric System of molecular oxygen with published data on the intensity of this emission obtained in 1961–1966 reveals their decrease over approximately 50 years. This fact is in good agreement with similar behavior of the emission intensity of atomic oxygen (557.7 nm) over the period considered.     

Ozone content of the atmosphere. 2. Variability of the total ozone content in the atmosphere and the horizontal wind in the lower thermosphere (Central Europe)

The correlation between total ozone content lower thermosphere horizontal wind parameters, and standard indices of solar activity and geomagnetic activity has been studied. The satellite measurements of TOC for five observatories in Central Europe and the lower thermosphere wind measurements for Collm observatory (Germany) were used for 1996–2003. The quasi-periodic structure of these variations and the correlation between the corresponding periodograms were also studied. The quantitative evaluation of the statistically significant correlations and common periodicities were revealed.     

Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications

We investigate whether or not the decadal and multi-decadal climate oscillations have an astronomical origin. Several global surface temperature records since 1850 and records deduced from the orbits of the planets present very similar power spectra. Eleven frequencies with period between 5 and 100 years closely correspond in the two records. Among them, large climate oscillations with peak-to-trough amplitude of about 0.1 and 0.25°C, and periods of about 20 and 60 years, respectively, are synchronized to the orbital periods of Jupiter and Saturn. Schwabe and Hale solar cycles are also visible in the temperature records. A 9.1-year cycle is synchronized to the Moon's orbital cycles. A phenomenological model based on these astronomical cycles can be used to well reconstruct the temperature oscillations since 1850 and to make partial forecasts for the 21st century. It is found that at least 60% of the global warming observed since 1970 has been induced by the combined effect of the above natural climate oscillations. The partial forecast indicates that climate may stabilize or cool until 2030–2040. Possible physical mechanisms are qualitatively discussed with an emphasis on the phenomenon of collective synchronization of coupled oscillators.     

Low-frequency noise at altitudes of the outer ionosphere and solar activity

The results of recording the intensity of low-frequency electromagnetic emissions at altitudes of the outer ionosphere based on satellite data at various levels of solar activity have been investigated. The intensity of low-frequency emissions has been found to depend on the solar activity, i.e., the spatial noise characteristics vary. Mean values of the noise amplitude variations at various phases of the solar activity cycle are presented. The low-frequency emissions are shown to serve as a source of information about the processes in the surface plasma; in particular, the state of the radiation belts is judged from them. The noise carries information about the variations in the particle fluxes intruding into the Earth’s plasmasphere under various solar activity conditions and about the magnetospheric plasma variations related to the growth of solar activity. In other words, the electromagnetic low-frequency noise can be a peculiar kind of indicator of the solar activity and the state of the magnetosphere.