基于统计方法的干旱区地下水最大可开采量的确定

为克服地下水可开采量确定过程中确定性模型的局限性、失真和参数确定困难等弊端,合理的确定地下水可开采量,基于研究区不同区域地下水水位与开采量监测资料,采用多元线性回归和非线性多元回归统计方法对不同情况下地下水最大开采量进行探讨。结果表明：1964—1990年期间百口泉水源地地下水开采量在持续增加,并以1976年前增加较明显,且地下水水位均表现为下降趋势;非线性多元回归分析法对降深与开采量拟合的结果和误差精度均优于多元线性回归分析法;基于拟合的非线性多元回归方程,可确定水源地正常运行条件下的开采量为1 391万m3、极限开采条件下的开采量1 856万m3、疏干开采条件下的开采量1 992万m3。     

Water level variations in fractured,semi-confined aquifers of Anantapur district,Southern India

The study on water level conditions of fractured aquifer system in northeastern part of Anantapur district is of immense importance as the area is covered by varied geological formations and has different irrigation patterns. The monthly groundwater level data of 154 observation wells for five year period (2001–06) is analyzed to decipher the behavior of water levels in different seasons and geo-environments. The hydrographs of the average water level data of each Mandal (group of villages) indicate steady declining trend ranging from 0.50 to 2.91m/yr. Yellanuru Mandal has both the shallowest and the deepest water levels among eight Mandals, highly undulating terrain could be one of the reasons for this contrasting condition. The pre-monsoon water levels show decline of 8.22 m in one year from May 2002 to 2003. A negative seasonal fluctuation of ?1.49m has occurred in the year 2002 during which the area received 32% less than normal rainfall. The mean water levels are deeper by 42% in areas covered by sedimentary formations than those of granite terrain. Raise in water levels is significant where monthly rainfall is more than 200 mm. Due to erratic rainfall in space and time, deeper water levels are noticed even in post-monsoon period and shallow in February month at some locations. The water levels in command areas are deep and exhibit falling trend as the area forms the tail end part of the Tunga Bhadra High Level Canal. The deeper water level conditions and its declining feature is directly related to groundwater development in the form of increased agriculture activity, reduced area under rain-fed crops, high horticulture development. Arid climatic conditions, low precipitation and continuous exploitation of groundwater resources could be other factors contributing for steady decline in water levels in the area. The wide variations in groundwater levels could be due to uneven topography, heterogeneous and anisotropic conditions of granites and poor porosity — permeability of shales, lack of vegetation, and increased groundwater extraction.     

华北平原深层地下水超采程度计算与分析

华北平原深层地下水的超采已引起了一系列的环境地质问题。为了从区域上认识深层地下水的超采情况以及由此引发的环境地质问题,分别以地下水开采潜力系数(深层地下水可利用量/现状开采量)、地面沉降量、多年平均水位下降速率为指标对地下水超采情况进行了计算和分析。结果表明,不同方法的计算结果具有一定的一致性。从区域上来看,深层地下水总体上处于超采状态,已无开采潜力。地下水开采程度指标采用以2003年为现状年的开采量,因此更多反映的是开采程度现状。利用地面沉降和多年平均水位下降速率计算的超采结果更多地反映了深层地下水开采历史所产生的环境地质问题。     

Forecasting of groundwater level in hard rock region using artificial neural network

In hardrock terrain where seasonal streams are not perennial source of freshwater, increase in ground water exploitation has already resulted here in declining ground water levels and deteriorating its’ quality. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion and quality contamination. Thus, to secure water for the future, water resource estimation and management has urgently become the need of the hour. In order to manage groundwater resources, it is vital to have a tool to predict the aquifer response for a given stress (abstraction and recharge). Artificial neural network (ANN) has surfaced as a proven and potential methodology to forecast the groundwater levels. In this paper, Feed-Forward Network based ANN model is used as a method to predict the groundwater levels. The models are trained with the inputs collected from field and then used as prediction tool for various scenarios of stress on aquifer. Such predictions help in developing better strategies for sustainable development of groundwater resources.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of groundwater levels and projection of future trend of Agra city,Uttar Pradesh,India

Access to water resources is one of the major challenges being faced worldwide. Water scarcity, particularly groundwater resource, is the major ubiquitous concern for the country. Almost half of the country is reeling under severe ground water crisis due to anthropogenic and natural reasons (basalt rock surface). Agra region situated in the western part of Uttar Pradesh state of India has a semi-arid climate. The study area, which has a history of water scarcity since medieval ages, has seen a spurt of acute water shortage in recent times owing to the expansion of a very dense built-up area and excessive haulage accompanied by decline in rainfall. A study was under taken for identifying the trends in pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels for Agra city, Uttar Pradesh. Pre-monsoon and post-monsoon groundwater depth data of 16 observation wells for the 2007–2016 period were collected and analyzed using ARC GIS 10.2 software. The rainfall trend during the study period was also studied to understand its role in groundwater fluctuation level. Statistical tests like Mann-Kendall, Sen’s slope estimator, and linear regression model were applied to understand the trend and rate of change in groundwater level. The land use/land cover map of the study area was integrated with groundwater map to have a primary understanding of the spatial trend of groundwater scenario of the study area. The result obtained is quite alarming for the city’s groundwater scenario. Results showed that the groundwater levels had significantly declined during 2007–2016. Average rates of water level decline were 0.228 and 0.267 m/year during pre- and post-monsoon seasons, respectively. There was a rapid decline in water level between 2008 and 2009 and between 2013 and 2014. The average rate of decline of pre- and post-monsoon groundwater level in the city during this period is 0.32 and 0.30 m/year, respectively. Significant decrease in groundwater level is found in 84.21% of wells for pre- and post-monsoon as obtained through Mann-Kendall analysis at 95% confidence level. During pre-monsoon season, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope estimator varied between 0.74 and 2.05 m/year. Almost similar picture of decline is portrayed through linear regression slope wherein the computed rate of decline varied between 0.75 and 2.05 m/year. During post-monsoon, the rate of decline according to Sen’s slope varied between 0.13 and 1.94 m/year. Similar trend statistic is obtained through linear regression method where the declining rate is between 0.14 and 1.91 m/year. Comparison of the three statistical tests indicates similar nature of declining trend. The result of this research raises concern about the future of groundwater resources in Agra city. The findings of this study will assist planners and decision-makers in developing better land use and water resource management.     

Groundwater abstraction impacts on spring flow and base flow in the Hillsborough River Basin, Florida, USA

Groundwater abstraction has resulted in spring flow and groundwater base-flow declines in the Hillsborough River system of central Florida, USA. These declines have resulted in reduction of inflows to the Tampa city reservoir as well as likely adverse environmental effects on riverine and estuarine biota. Causes evaluated for the declines include effects of groundwater development, reduced rainfall, and land alterations. The karstic, heterogeneic nature of the area renders groundwater flow modeling an ineffective method for overall evaluation. Therefore, the evaluation of these declines is accomplished through the systematic use of parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques. These techniques include contingency table analysis, linear regression, Kendall-Theil and Mann-Kendall trend analysis, locally weighted regression, Pearson correlation, Kendall-tau correlation, Spearman correlation, runs test, Student’s t test, and the Kruskall-Wallis test. Data evaluated include groundwater withdrawals, rainfall, base flow, streamflow, stream stage, spring flow, and groundwater levels. Additional methods used include double mass analysis, base flow separation, a low-stage trend analysis, data visualization techniques, and water level change maps. The methodical application of these analyses and techniques to the hydrologic and climatic data yields the conclusion that the primary factor causing the spring flow and base-flow declines is lowered groundwater levels caused by over-abstraction.     

黑河流域中游盆地地下水动态特征及其调蓄能力分析

40 多年来,我国西北地区大规模的地下水开发利用造成了部分地区地下水水位持续下降甚至泉水干涸,部分地区地下水仍能维持动态稳定,判断这类地区水资源开发利用是否具有可持续性是必须解决的重大科学问题。以黑河流域中游盆地作为研究对象,采用MK检验和连续小波分析等方法,分析长时间序列地下水水位数据的变化特点,研究区域地下水动态特征;结合区域水文地质条件,综合划分黑河流域中游盆地地下水补排平衡区与非平衡区;利用克里金插值法估算1990—2020 年盆地含水层对水资源的调节水量,并评价不同动态平衡区的调蓄能力。结果显示,黑河流域中游盆地地下水水位动态类型有:水文型、水文-开采型、开采型和蒸发-开采型4种长周期动态稳定型,过量开采型或上游过度引用地表水型2 种长周期持续下降型。黑河-梨园河倾斜平原、酒泉盆地和黑河中游下段侵蚀堆积平原的大厚度含水层是黑河流域中游盆地的地下水补排平衡区,其在1990—2001 年共输出地下水12.06×108 m3,2001—2020年共储存地下水9.06×108 m3。大厚度含水层为地下水的长周期调蓄提供了充足的空间,在合理控制开采量的前提下,该类含水层的天然调蓄能力可满足生产生活和下游生态用水需要。盆地地下水补排非平衡区,如黑河以东诸河倾斜平原、盐池盆地和榆木山山前诸小河流域等地区,目前的地下水开发利用方式和强度是不可持续的,应适当减少地下水开采量,调节盆地上游的引水量和开采量,抑制地下水资源枯竭。本研究成果可为西北干旱内陆地区水资源管理和持续开发利用提供参考。     

腰坝绿洲地下水位动态特征及对植被变化影响

地下水资源是干旱半干旱地区绿洲主要的供水水源,随着绿洲发展规模的不断扩大,为了满足日益增长的供水需求,加大了对地下水资源的开采导致了地质环境生态问题。本文结合实地调查、访问与统测方法,收集相关资料,测定地下水位,分析地下水位动态年内与年际变化特征,认为腰坝绿洲地下水位动态变化主要受人工开采影响,总体趋势表现为持续下降,并在开采期局部地区形成地下水位降落漏斗,受地下水位动态变化影响,绿洲防护林及周边荒漠植被处于衰退阶段,出现退化或大面积死亡现象。     

大凌河流域朝阳地区1955～2014年降水趋势变化及突变分析

为了掌握辽西大凌河流域的降水变化规律,更加科学地利用和管理水资源,以大凌河流域朝阳地区为研究典型区域,根据研究区域内19552014年的降水实测资料,采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、滑动平均法和线性回归法从年降水量和季降水量两个角度分析了大凌河流域朝阳地区降水量的变化。结果表明,朝阳地区近60年年降水量呈下降趋势,夏季、秋季、冬季三个季节的降水量均呈下降趋势,其中降水量夏季的减少最多,而春季降水量呈显著的增多趋势;年降水量分别在1982年和2007年发生了两次突变,四季降水量的突变发生年份各不相同。     

农业种植规模与降水量变化对农用地下水开采量影响识别

以石家庄平原区作为研究区域,运用相关分析及回归分析阐明农用地下水开采量与降水量及小麦—玉米种植规模之间的关系。降水量与农用地下水开采量之间的相关系数较小,但作为农作物需水的重要水源,降水量通过影响农业地下水开采强度影响地下水开采总量。农业地下水开采强度在丰水年时明显减小,在枯水年时明显增大。小麦和玉米作为主要的耗水型作物,其种植面积与农用地下水开采量关系密切,随小麦—玉米种植面积的增加(减小),农用地下水开采量表现出明显的增加(减小)趋势。1981年之前,小麦—玉米种植面积每增加1×104 hm2,农用地下水开采量平均增加0.69×108 m3;1981年之后,小麦—玉米种植面积每增加1×104 hm2,农用地下水开采量增加0.23×108 m3。     

Comparison of GRACE data and groundwater levels for the assessment of groundwater depletion in Jordan

Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) derived groundwater storage (GWS) data are compared with in-situ groundwater levels from five groundwater basins in Jordan, using newly gridded GRACE GRCTellus land data. It is shown that (1) the time series for GRACE-derived GWS data and in-situ groundwater-level measurements can be correlated, with R ² from 0.55 to 0.74, (2) the correlation can be widely ascribed to the seasonal and trend component, since the detrended and deseasonalized time series show no significant correlation for most cases, implying that anomalous signals that deviate from the trend or seasonal behaviour are overlaid by noise, (3) estimates for water losses in Jordan based on the trend of GRACE data from 2003 to 2013 could be up to four times higher than previously assumed using estimated recharge and abstraction rates, and (4) a significant time-lagged cross correlation of the monthly changes in GRACE-derived groundwater storage and precipitation data was found, suggesting that the conventional method for deriving GWS from GRACE data probably does not account for the typical conditions in the study basins. Furthermore, a new method for deriving plausible specific yields from GRACE data and groundwater levels is demonstrated.     

Spatio-temporal analysis of recent groundwater-level trends in the Red River Delta, Vietnam

A groundwater-monitoring network has been in operation in the Red River Delta, Vietnam, since 1995. Trends in groundwater level (1995?C2009) in 57 wells in the Holocene unconfined aquifer and 63 wells in the Pleistocene confined aquifer were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen??s slope estimator. At each well, 17 time series (e.g. annual, seasonal, monthly), computed from the original data, were analyzed. Analysis of the annual groundwater-level means revealed that 35?% of the wells in the unconfined aquifer showed downward trends, while about 21?% showed upward trends. On the other hand, confined-aquifer groundwater levels experienced downward trends in almost all locations. Spatial distributions of trends indicated that the strongly declining trends (>0.3?m/year) were mainly found in urban areas around Hanoi where there is intensive abstraction of groundwater. Although the trend results for most of the 17 time series at a given well were quite similar, different trend patterns were detected in several. The findings reflect unsustainable groundwater development and the importance of maintaining groundwater monitoring and a database in the Delta, particularly in urban areas.     

机井开采对月牙泉水位的影响及应对措施

通过对月牙泉周边区域的水量均衡计算范围、地下水水位监测孔的水位年内变化及牙泉水位下降过程的分析,明确对月牙泉水位产生影响的机井开采区,提出关闭合水村和鸣山村及敦煌城市自来水厂、七里镇自来水厂机井。共关闭机井155眼,减少年开采量1 297.8万/m^3,以应对月牙泉的水位因机井开采而持续下降的问题。     

关中城市群开采地下水有关环境地质问题 及其防治对策建议

关中城市群地下水自集中开采以来区域地下水位呈整体下降趋势,主要城市集中供水水源地水位降幅30~50 m,最大超过120 m。长期过量开采地下水引起了地下水位持续下降、地面沉降、地裂缝以及水质污染等环境地质问题。近年随着城市群限制开采量,地下水水位下降及其相关环境地质问题在局部地段有所缓和。本文以50年地下水动态监测数据为基础,针对关中城市群地下水动态特征及相关的环境地质问题进行研究分析,并对预防和缓解环境地质问题、合理开发地下水资源提出建议。     

黑龙江建三江地区地下水动态趋势突变点分析

农业区地下水动态规律是农业水资源管理的重要依据。采用双向回归突变分析方法研究黑龙江建三江地区(19922011)地下水埋深序列的趋势突变点,结合水稻面积增长数据进行对比分析,找出地下水动态趋势突变与灌溉面积的响应关系,同时运用标准化降水指数(SPI)方法来分析研究地下水动态趋势突变与降水之间的响应关系。结果表明:建三江地区地下水水位的下降趋势具有明显的突变特征,整体上呈"快慢快"的特点,趋势突变时间多发生在20002001年间和20062007年间;在第一阶段和第二阶段,地下水水位下降趋势受水稻种植面积与降水影响,第三阶段主要受水稻种植面积增长的控制。     

Hydrogeological component assessment for water resources management of semi-arid region: a case study of Gwalior,M.P., India

Groundwater management is of fundamental importance to meet the rapidly expanding urban, industrial and agricultural water requirements in semi-arid areas. To assess the current rate of groundwater withdrawal and possibility of recharge of potential aquifer in the semi-arid regions is essential for water management. The present study aimed to identify potential area for groundwater recharge structure in the Gwalior area based on land use, rainfall variation, hydrological component and statistical analysis. In this work, a stream survival approach was used for the assessment of water channel by using triangulated network and regression analysis to find out the correlation of individual component with reference to water management. Land use/land cover (LULC) map prepared from multispectral satellite images of the study area and used to validate the hydrological component and the results observed through the regression model shows good correlation. Therefore, immediate and effective water management schemes are required for sustainable water resource development and management in the area.     

甘肃省定西市水源地地下水资源分析评价

在分析定西市城区主要供水水源地内官-香泉盆地水文地质条件的基础上,对盆地地下水位历年变化规律进行了分析。分析表明：地下水位历年呈持续下降趋势,汛期7～9月降水补给地下水资源量增加,地下水位持续回升;5月、6月农业灌溉用水量加大,地下水位下降速率加大。通过地下水资源均衡计算,盆地地下水处于负均衡状态。并对引洮供水工程引水灌溉后的地下水动态作了趋势预测。     

天津地区深层地下热水开采动态分析

深层地下热水由于多年长期开采致使水位持续下降,同时由于每年采暖期和非采暖期的交替开采,水位在下降过程中又呈现周期性的波动。另一方面受温度差异的影响,钻井井口水位并不能反映深层地下热水的实际水位,应对实测水位进行校正,校正后的水位具有复杂的周期性变化和趋势性变化。本研究通过对天津地区深层地下热水开采动态分析,建立趋势项与周期项之和的数学模型来描述水位变化。用线性函数拟合其趋势项,用傅立叶级数拟合其周期项,用Welch法对周期项进行频谱分析,利用最小二乘法确定周期项函数。用校正水位和计算水位的均方差检验拟合结果,结果表明拟合效果好。所建立的数学模型可以用来预测深层地下热水动态变化,预测水位能较好地反映水位变化特点。     

冀中山前农业区地下水位强降弱升特征与机制

针对冀中山前平原农业区浅层地下水位不断下降问题,采用时间序列异变特征和趋势分析方法,基于小时级、自记监测的地下水位动态资料,通过农业区灌溉期、非灌溉期地下水位变化程度的差异特征及机制研究,结果表明:该平原农业区浅层地下水位变化在主灌溉期呈"cm/d"级(大于1.0 cm/d)下降、非灌溉期呈"mm/d"级(小于1.0 cm/d)上升的特征,这些特征与降水量、年内降水分配状况及其影响的农业开采强度密切相关。前期降水偏枯,灌溉期地下水位下降过程线和年内水位上升过程线的大部分位于当地多年地下水位变化趋势线之下;前期降水偏丰,位于趋势线之上。农业集中开采是地下水位"cm/d"级下降特征的动因,厚大包气带是地下水位"mm/d"级上升特征形成的重要条件。     

多元线性回归方法在地下水水位预测中的应用

在对已有长期开采资料的水源地进行资源评价时,充分利用长系列观测资料,可采用多元线性回归方法对地下水水位的变化规律进行研究对其变化趋势进行预测,本文重点对相关因素的确定和多元线性回归方法的应用进行了研究。