Temporal and spatial differences and imbalance of China’s urbanization development during 1950–2006

A better understanding of the regional disparity and imbalance characteristics of China’s urbanization development is the important premise for constituting correct policy and strategy and promoting the healthy and sustainable development of urbanization in the 21st century. The regional differences of China’s urbanization level have close relations with natural conditions of landform and climate etc., the urbanization level reduces with the elevation of topography and decrease of precipitation. According to the statistical data set of urbanization in 1950–2006, the temporal change course of inter-provincial disparity of Chinese urbanization level since the founding of New China in 1949 was studied, and then the inter- regional and intra-regional disparities of urbanization development were analyzed by the Theil index and its nested decomposition method, to grasp the dynamic change of spatial disparities of China’s urbanization level on the whole. Using the imbalance index model, the imbalance status of urban population distribution relative to total population, grain output, total agricultural output value, gross output value of industry, tertiary industrial output value as well as gross regional product was discussed, to hold the balance characteristics of urbanization development relative to the regional development conditions from the macroscopic scales.     

The eco-environmental guarantee for China’s urbanization process

Studying the change of resources consumption and eco-environmental carrying capacity are of importance to the sustainable development of urbanization. Based on the China’s economic and social statistical data from 1950 to 2006, the ecological footprint, ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus, and eco-environment quality comprehensive index are calculated, the correlation between urbanization and eco-environmental change is analyzed and the eco-environmental guarantee for China’s urbanization in 2030 is forecasted. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) there is a positive linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint, negative linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus and the negative exponential relation between urbanization and eco-environment quality comprehensive index. (2) By 2030, the urbanization level will reach 61.32%, the ecological deficit will increase to 42.2866×108 hm2 and the eco-environment quality comprehensive index will drop to 0.3016 on the condition that the total quantity ecological footprint achieves 55.9348×108 hm2. (3) Under the existing urban development pattern, the ecological overload will be more serious in the next 24 years. Constructing the reasonable industrial structure and establishing the intensive resources utilization system to alleviate the eco-environmental pressure are the tough challenges in China’s urbanization process.     

中国能源资源开发的时空格局与潜力评价(英文)

The issue of China's energy supply security is not only the key problem which affects China's rapid and sustainable development in the 21st century,but also the one which international attention focuses on.Based on the notable characteristic of spatial imbalance between energy production and consumption in China,this paper takes the evolution of China's primary energy resources development(excluding hydropower) from 1949 to 2007 as the study object,with the aim to sum up the evolutive characteristics and laws of China's energy resources development in the past nearly 60 years.Then,based on comprehensive considerations of coal's,oil's and natural gas's basic reserves,qualities,geological conditions,production status,and ecological service function of every province,this paper adopts development potential index(DP)to evaluate the development potential of every province's energy resources,and divide them into different ranks.Conclusions are drawn as follows:(1) Generally speaking,China's gross energy production was increasing in waves from 1949 to 2007.From the viewpoint of spatial patterns,China's energy resources development has shown a characteristic of "concentrating to the north and central areas,and evolving from linear-shaped to "T-shaped" pattern gradually since 1949.(2) The structure evolution of China's energy resources development in general has shown a trend of "coal proportion is dominant but decreasing,while oil and gas proportions are increasing" since 1949.(3) At the provincial scale,China's energy resources development potential could be divided into large,sub-large,general and small ranks,four in all.In the future,the spatial pattern of China's energy production will evolve from "T-shaped" to "∏-shaped pattern".These conclusions will help to clarify the temporal and spatial characteristics and laws of China's energy resources development,and will be beneficial for China to design scientific and rational energy development strategies and plans,coordinate spatial imbalance of energy production and consumption,ensure national energy supply,avoid energy resources waste and disorderly development,and promote regional sustainable development under the globalization background with changeful international energy market.     

International trade and industrial dynamics: Geographical and structural dimensions of Chinese and Sino-EU merchandise trade

This paper draws on trade data to examine the degree of upgrading of China’s trade structure with the world as a whole and in particular with the European Union (EU). More specifically it examines the evolution of the industrial structure of China’s trade with the world and with the EU between 1996 and 2008 and of the underlying dynamic indicators of revealed comparative advantage. This method of analysing China’s industrial structure provides clear evidence of upgrading into more advanced industries without at present losing significant competitive advantage in industries employing unskilled workers. The examination of revealed comparative advantage indices for world and Sino-EU trade also indicates an increasingly high degree of interdependence between the EU and China between 1996 and 2008. The EU (especially Germany, the UK, and France) is China’s most important export market, though it is also much more important as a market for China’s exports than the EU is as a supplier for China. China’s consequent trade surplus with the EU has gradually shifted from textiles and clothing to machinery and furniture. Further investigation reveals that the complementary Sino-EU bilateral trade is moving towards intra-industry trade at the 4-digit level of HS (Harmonization System) commodity classification. Although China is still a ‘global sweatshop’ with a strong specialization in labour-intensive commodities produced for economically developed countries (by importing machinery, raw materials and exporting processed goods), there are signs of technological upgrading in number of selected sectors in China, noticeably electronics, computers and telecommunications equipment. China’s reliance of imports of minerals indicates however that energy and resource security could be an important constraint on China’s long-term economic development.     

我国航空公司重组及其对航空网络结构的影响

航空公司重组是我国民航业放松管制过程中最关键的环节之一,这一重大的重组对我国民航业的发展和航空网络的结构产生了深远的影响。本文在解析了这次民航重组的过程及其背后政策内涵的基础上,主要从网络连通性、枢纽结构和空间服务范围等三个方面研究航空公司重组对航空网络结构的影响。研究结果表明,重组后决定航空网络的主体和方式发生了根本性的变革,从民航局的行政管理逐步转变为航空公司的市场化选择;重组不但拓展了主要航空公司的地理覆盖范围,而且也提升了其整体的空间服务水平;三大航空集团的网络从单一枢纽为主向多枢纽转变,轴辐式结构更加明晰;以重组为开端的放松管制政策优化了航空公司的资源配置,提高了主要航空公司的市场竞争能力,为进一步开放我国民航业,参与国际竞争奠定了良好的基础。     

The regional types of China’s floating population: Identification methods and spatial patterns

With the rapid increase of the number and influence of floating population in China, it is urgently needed to understand the regional types of China’s floating population and their spatial characteristics. After reviewing the current methods for identifying regional types of floating population, this paper puts forward a new composite-index identification method and its modification version which is consisted of two indexes of the net migration rate and gross migration rate. Then, the traditional single-index and the new composite-index identification methods are empirically tested to explore their spatial patterns and characteristics by using China’s 2000 census data at county level. The results show: (1) The composite-index identification method is much better than traditional single-index method because it can measure the migration direction and scale of floating simultaneously, and in particular it can identify the unique regional types of floating population with large scale of immigration and emigration. (2) The modified composite-index identification method, by using the share of a region’s certain type of floating population to the total in China as weights, can effectively correct the over- or under-estimated errors due to the rather large or small total population of a region. (3) The spatial patterns of different regional types of China’s floating population are closely related to the regional differentiation of their natural environment, population density and socio- economic development level. The three active regional types of floating population are mainly located in the eastern part of China with lower elevation, more than 800 mm precipitation, rather higher population densities and economic development levels.     

基于Google Earth的巴尔喀什湖流域中下游水资源开发利用研究

 常规的信息收集渠道难以获取国际河流研究所需的有效信息,探索新的信息收集方式对资料稀缺区开展水文水资源研究十分必要且关键。在Internet海量信息中,Google Earth（GE）平台的出现,为资源环境、交通规划等诸多领域提供了“身临其境”的远距离信息检索模式。通过基于GE平台的资料稀缺区水资源开发利用状况评价的应用框架和评价方法,并以巴尔喀什湖流域中下游为例开展了应用研究。结果表明：GE平台可成为资料稀缺区水资源开发利用研究的有效信息收集手段,文中所提出的框架、应用流程和评价方法具有较好的可操作性;研究区在1990年初就形成了以伊犁河中下游为主体、准噶尔区与巴尔喀什湖北部诸小河为重要用水区的基本格局;随着研究区经济社会发展的剧烈波动,其用水量经历了“增长-顶峰-剧减-恢复性增长”的演变格局,目前其用水量预计已恢复至20世纪80年代中期的水平,即65×108 m3左右。     

Global Carbon Project (GCP) Beijing Office: a new bridge for understanding regional carbon cycles

It has been widely accepted that human activities, especially burning fossil fuels and land use change, have altered the climate on earth and anthropogenic carbon fluxes have become comparable in magnitude with the natural fluxes in the global carbon cycle. The present and potential threat of adverse consequences has focused the attention of the scientists, policy makers and general public on the interaction among carbon cycle, climate change and human system. Asia is a hot spot from environmental change and sustainable development perspectives. The development pathways and environmental changes in the region have obvious consequences for the regional carbon cycle, even for global carbon budget, and the complex, diverse social, economic and environmental conditions make it highly difficult to understand and quantify these consequences. The GCP Beijing Office “will have a supporting and coordinating role and will provide coordination, leadership and capacity building on carbon cycle sciences in China and to the larger region of Asia” and “liaise with the two International Project Offices based in Canberra and Tsukuba to coordinate a regional and global strategy consistent with the GCP Science and Implementation Framework”.     

General multidimensional cloud model and its application on spatial clustering in Zhanjiang, Guangdong

Traditional spatial clustering methods have the disadvantage of “hardware division”, and can not describe the physical characteristics of spatial entity effectively. In view of the above, this paper sets forth a general multi-dimensional cloud model, which describes the characteristics of spatial objects more reasonably according to the idea of non-homogeneous and non-symmetry. Based on infrastructures’ classification and demarcation in Zhanjiang, a detailed interpretation of clustering results is made from the spatial distribution of membership degree of clustering, the comparative study of Fuzzy C-means and a coupled analysis of residential land prices. General multi-dimensional cloud model reflects the integrated characteristics of spatial objects better, reveals the spatial distribution of potential information, and realizes spatial division more accurately in complex circumstances. However, due to the complexity of spatial interactions between geographical entities, the generation of cloud model is a specific and challenging task.     

Economic polarized trends, function and expanded boundaries of the Yangtze Delta Region

In the era of economic globalization, the concept of Economic Polarized Area comes into being as an effective vehicle to agglomerate the economic elements and sustain the economic lifeline of the region. Based on the region’s specific development mode and construction form the concept is working in such a way that it will contribute to guide the economic development of the country and will play an important role in competing with other regions or countries in the world. Due to the high speed development of the last 30 years, the Yangtze Delta Region starts to show the features of Economic Polarized Area. But, compared with other world-class Economic Polarized Areas, the economic strength and the ability of the Yangtze Delta Region to drive the country’s economic development is still very low and the competitive power is still very limited. Expanding the boundaries of the Economic Polarized Area of the Yangtze Delta may extend the economic hinterland of the core area of the Yangtze Delta Region, will lighten the pressures from the limited resource and promote the rationalization of the industrial structure in the Yangtze Delta Region’s core area. With regard to the reasonable boundaries of the Yangtze Delta Region, there are different opinions and controversial arguments in political and academic circles. Starting from the idea of increasing the competitive power and improving the economic strength of the Yangtze Delta Region, the paper firstly is discussing the requirements to become a world-class Economic Polarized Area. In a second step an analysis of functional complementation and economic collaboration between the cities of an “extended” Yangtze Delta Region has been carried out by in particular considering the feasibility of integrating these “newly included” cities. The final result of the study is, that the Region should be expanded from the number of 16 cities to 37 cities, and the appended cities should be divided up into two categories: Wenzhou, Jinhua, Yancheng, Huaian, Maanshan, Wuhu, Tongling, Chaohu, Hefei, Chuzhou, Xuancheng should be taken as Preferred Extending Area, and Suqian, Xuzhou, Lianyungang, Lishui, Quzhou, Chizhou, Anqing, Bengbu, Huangshan, Suzhou (Anhui Province) should be taken as Retained Qualification Area.     

The changing regional distribution of grain production in China in the 21st century

This paper examines the changing regional distribution of grain production in China. Based on the analysis of data from county statistics for the period 2000–2003, major differences in the main grain-output regions in China can be observed. The main grain-producing areas have shifted from the south to the north of China. New grain production regions have been also added to western China since the late 1990s. The per capita grain consumption in one third of China’s main grain-producing counties has fallen below 400 kg; most of these areas are located in southern China. In the new millennium, Northeast China, the central-south North China, and the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China produced three quarters of the surplus grains. Most of these areas are located in regions susceptible to environmental change. The amount of grain production in these regions shows high fluctuations. It is argued here that further studies of recent environmental changes as well as a risk assessment of China’s food security in main grain-output regions are needed.     

武汉都市圈城际联系通达性的测度与分析

空间- 距离- 通达性已经成为城市区域一体化联系与发展的先决条件。当前都市圈城际联 系发展与交通网络建设存在明显的不同步现象, 矛盾解决的关键是优化其路网通达性空间格局。 以武汉都市圈为实证对象, 构建最短距离矩阵, 引入时间、空间通达性模型, 建立高等级路网发育 评价指标体系, 从节点体系与网络体系两个角度, 定量分析武汉都市圈城际通达性变化及其空间 格局, 揭示出: 圈域城镇( 节点) 体系通达性空间差异明显, 与城市自身交通区位、经济发展水平密 切相关, 其空间格局与城镇等级规模呈共轭协同关系, 不同空间等级节点形成以武汉为中心的同 心圈层与“轴—辐”网络空间格局; 快速交通干道网络( 高速公路、铁路等) 是城市通达性空间演变 的重要推动力, 使其空间收敛减速, 形成显著的带状分异格局, 初步形成沪蓉东西向、京珠南北向 的两大城市经济联系交通走廊; 圈域城际交通干网发育程度偏低, 处于回路网络水平, 高等级路 网扩展潜力巨大。     

综合功能区划的区域实践——以东北地区为例

我国“‘十一五’规划纲要”提出的按照主体功能区的划分对国土的开发和利用进行规划的 空间发展观对我国社会经济发展空间组织的影响将是深远的。本研究基于对东北地区空间发展 的总体情况的概观, 结合利用GIS 数据库分析所获的区域开发综合评价结果, 遵循一定的区划原 则, 获得了东北地区未来振兴的主体功能区划分的初步方案, 对于东北地区振兴规划的编制, 尤 其是空间总体布局的确立提供了重要的科学支撑, 同时本研究所遵循的“全局判断———分区评 价———方案确定”的基本框架对于其他区域主体功能区的划分具有借鉴意义。     

Research progress on international rivers in Asia

With the regional population growth, socioeconomic development, more and more attention has been paid to issues on the shared water allocation and the transboundary eco-security conservation during the development of water resources in the international rivers. In this paper, the existing major problems on transboundary waters in different sub-regions of Asia, such as water shortage, transboundary waters pollution, fragile eco-environment are discussed. Then, the key scientific issues to be concerned in the next study progress on the basis of the analyses of the new research directions and focus fields are raised: (1) unpredicted changes of the hydrologic and water system, and their impacts on the allocation of the sharing waters by global changes; (2) models of the international cooperation on the international rivers on the studies of international and national water laws or regulations, policies, the relative experiences and the case studies; (3) quantificational assessment on environmental flow, available water, and the comprehensive functions and values of the international watercourse system; (4) studies on transboundary aquatic bio-diversity maintenance, transboundary pollution supervision and treatment under the rules and principles accepted by the riparian states; (5) issues on transboundary compensation at the rules of “payments for using”, “payments for harm” and “compensation for benefit”; (6) using advanced 3S techniques to promote the integrated watershed development and management; and so on.     

Spatial patterns and driving forces of land use change in China during the early 21st century

Land use and land cover change as the core of coupled human-environment systems has become a potential field of land change science (LCS) in the study of global environmental change. Based on remotely sensed data of land use change with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km on national scale among every 5 years, this paper designed a new dynamic regionalization according to the comprehensive characteristics of land use change including regional differentiation, physical, economic, and macro-policy factors as well. Spatial pattern of land use change and its driving forces were investigated in China in the early 21st century. To sum up, land use change pattern of this period was characterized by rapid changes in the whole country. Over the agricultural zones, e.g., Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, the southeast coastal areas and Sichuan Basin, a great proportion of fine arable land were engrossed owing to considerable expansion of the built-up and residential areas, resulting in decrease of paddy land area in southern China. The development of oasis agriculture in Northwest China and the reclamation in Northeast China led to a slight increase in arable land area in northern China. Due to the “Grain for Green” policy, forest area was significantly increased in the middle and western developing regions, where the vegetation coverage was substantially enlarged, likewise. This paper argued the main driving forces as the implementation of the strategy on land use and regional development, such as policies of “Western Development”, “Revitalization of Northeast”, coupled with rapidly economic development during this period.     

中国城市化进程中的生态环境保障程度

Studying the change of resources consumption and eco-environmental carrying capacity are of importance to the sustainable development of urbanization. Based on the China’s economic and social statistical data from 1950 to 2006, the ecological footprint, ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus, and eco-environment quality comprehensive index are calculated, the correlation between urbanization and eco-environmental change is analyzed and the eco-environmental guarantee for China’s urbanization in 2030 is forecasted. The major results could be summarized as follows: (1) there is a positive linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint, negative linear relation between urbanization and ecological footprint intensity, ecological deficit and surplus and the negative exponential relation between urbanization and eco-environment quality comprehensive index. (2) By 2030, the urbanization level will reach 61.32%, the ecological deficit will increase to 42.2866×10⁸ hm² and the eco-environment quality comprehensive index will drop to 0.3016 on the condition that the total quantity ecological footprint achieves 55.9348×10⁸ hm². (3) Under the existing urban development pattern, the ecological overload will be more serious in the next 24 years. Constructing the reasonable industrial structure and establishing the intensive resources utilization system to alleviate the eco-environmental pressure are the tough challenges in China’s urbanization process. Foundation: Knowledge Innovation Project of CAS, No.KZCX2-YW-307-02; No.KZCX2-YW-321-05; Major Project of 11th Five-year Scientific and Technological Support Plan of China, No.2006BAJ05A06 Author: Fang Chuanglin(1966–), Ph.D. and Professor, specialized in regional and urban planning.     

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China’s rice production

This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi’s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO’s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China’s rice production is less climate-sensitive.     

内蒙古牧区矿产开发模式选择的思路探讨

内蒙古牧区能矿资源富集, 生态环境敏感脆弱。国家“能源安全”战略要求大规模开发利用煤炭资源的地域分工与国家“生态安全”战略要求保护生态环境保护之间存在尖锐的矛盾。解决好这一矛盾, 对我国西部生态敏感区的矿产资源合理开发利用和生态环境保护具有重要意义。对生态敏感的煤炭富集区应基于区域发展的空间均衡这一视角, 选择合理的开发模式。其分析思路为:首先, 选择典型煤炭资源开发区域, 对开发空间与生态空间的空间耦合关系进行分析, 通过比较空间耦合类型, 揭示空间失衡点, 并分析空间失衡原因。其次, 构建指标体系, 构造矩阵, 对区域空间供给能力进行分区。最后, 综合空间失衡原因、空间供给能力分区以及资源开发与生态保护的需求因素, 提出区域发展的空间均衡模式与对策。     

Modeling the impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture

The impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture are measured based on Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture-dominated counties in the period of 1985-1991, we find that both higher temperature and more precipitation will have overall positive impact on China’s agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Higher temperature in all seasons except spring increases agricultural net revenue while more precipitation is beneficial in winter but is harmful in summer. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the 2020s and 2050s shows that the North, the Northeast, the Northwest, and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau would always benefit from climate change while the South and the Southwest may be negatively affected. For the East and the Central China, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In conclusion, climate change would be beneficial to the whole China.     

天山北麓经济发展与绿洲扩张

借助地学信息图谱技术，以不同时相、不同尺度的图像数据源为基础，编制出1949年以来天山北麓绿洲分布图4幅，绿洲演化规律为：1949－1967年为绿洲迅速扩张阶段，耕地面积急剧增加，1967－2000年绿洲扩张速度减缓，耕地面积总量基本保持平衡，城市化进程加快，分析了天山北绿洲经济带发展现状，论述了北麓经济带，城市群和主导产业分布格局，讨论了绿洲扩张过程中水资源利用变化以及生态环境问题，这些对研究50年来北麓绿洲经济带的变化具有重要意义，也对未来北麓绿洲经济带的发展具有指导作用。