Testing the anelastic nonhydrostatic model EULAG as a prospective dynamical core of a numerical weather prediction model Part II: Simulations of supercell

The anelastic nonhydrostatic model EULAG is a candidate for the future dynamical core of a numerical weather prediction model. Achieving such an objective requires a number of experiments focused on testing correctness of the solutions and robustness of the solver. In the spirit of this idea, a set of tests related to standard atmospheric problems was performed, of which the two regarding development and evolution of a supercell were employed as benchmarks of moist dynamics of the model. Their results are discussed in this paper. Development and evolution of a stormsystem with a set of characteristic features such as stormsplitting along with the generation of horizontal vorticity and cold pool formation is investigated. In addition, the influence of domain geometry, boundary conditions and subgrid-scale mixing is examined.     

A comparison of cumulus parameterization schemes in a numerical weather prediction model for a monsoon rainfall event

In order to evaluate cumulus parameterization (CP) schemes for hydrological applications, the Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research's fifth‐generation mesoscale model (MM5) was used to simulate a summer monsoon in east China. The performances of five CP schemes (Anthes–Kuo, Betts–Miller, Fritsch–Chappell, Kain–Fritsch, and Grell) were evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate amount of rainfall during the heavy, moderate, and light phases of the event. The Grell scheme was found to be the most robust, performing well at all rainfall intensity and spatial scales. The Betts–Miller scheme also performed well, particularly at larger scales, but its assumptions may make it inapplicable to non‐tropical environments and at smaller scales. The Kain–Fritsch scheme was the best at simulating moderate rainfall rates, and was found to be superior to the Fritsch–Chappell scheme on which it was based. The Anthes–Kuo scheme was found to underpredict precipitation consistently at the mesoscale. Simulation performance was found to improve when schemes that included downdrafts were used in conjunction with schemes that did not include downdrafts. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A new technique of physical dissipation and its application to a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model

In terms of statistical physics, a fluid such as the atmosphere is a many-body system which has a vast amount of degree of freedom and thus obeys the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, a noticeable improvement of the prognostic outputs is made by reconstructing the terms of the horizontal diffusion of MM5 according to the principles of the second law of thermodynamics; besides, the computational noise is effectively and significantly suppressed since the physical dissipative technique for reconstructing suggested in this paper is based on the physical law rather than on the computational method such as the artificial viscosity.     

Cumulus cloud energetics as revealed in a numerical model of cloud dynamics: Part II. Computational results

A numerical model of atmospheric convection is used to investigate the effects of the birth, growth, and death of a cumulus cloud on the temporal and spatial characteristics of atmospheric energy content. Energy in the forms of latent and thermal enthalpy of water vapor, thermal enthalpy of dry air and of condensed liquid, and potential and kinetic energy is computed. Changes in the energy content and the vertical flux of energy are mapped in the vertical plane passing through the cloud axis and are summed horizontally and vertically over the domain to show the rearrangements.It is found that the relative importance of different forms of energy is a function of position with respect to the cloud. Energy related to the presence of water vapor accounts for most of the changes in the vicinity of the cloud. Convection tends to decrease the potential instability of the atmosphere, the amount of decrease being determined by the total energy released during condensation regardless of whether it falls as rain. The time for the departure from neutral stability to be reduced by 10 percent of its initial value is estimated to be about one hour.     

Error sources and data limitations for the prediction of surface gravity: a case study using benchmarks

Gravity-based heights require gravity values at levelled benchmarks (BMs), which sometimes have to be predicted from surrounding observations. We use the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008) and the Australian National Gravity Database (ANGD) as examples of model and terrestrial observed data respectively to predict gravity at Australian National Levelling Network (ANLN) BMs. The aim is to quantify errors that may propagate into the predicted BM gravity values and then into gravimetric height corrections (HCs). Our results indicate that an approximate ±1 arc-min horizontal position error of the BMs causes maximum errors in EGM2008 BM gravity of ~22 mGal (~55 mm in the HC at ~2200 m elevation) and ~18 mGal for ANGD BM gravity because the values are not computed at the true location of the BM. We use RTM (residual terrain modelling) techniques to show that ~50% of EGM2008 BM gravity error in a moderately mountainous region can be accounted for by signal omission. Non-representative sampling of ANGD gravity in this region may cause errors of up to 50 mGals (~120 mm for the Helmert orthometric correction at ~2200 m elevation). For modelled gravity at BMs to be viable, levelling networks need horizontal BM positions accurate to a few metres, while RTM techniques can be used to reduce signal omission error. Unrepresentative gravity sampling in mountains can be remedied by denser and more representative re-surveys, and/or gravity can be forward modelled into regions of sparser gravity.     

Numerical models on the influence of partial melt on elastic,anelastic and electric properties of rocks. Part I: elasticity and anelasticity

With the aim of a simultaneous interpretation of elastic, anelastic and electric in situ data from the asthenosphere a comprehensive set of numerical models is developed for partial melt in different geometrical configurations. For the elastic and anelastic modulus use is made throughout of the melt squirt mechanism. Frequency dependence is not treated in detail but estimated from the limiting cases of the relaxed and unrelaxed modulus. This has the advantage that quantitative values of viscocity and flow path dimensions are not required. In the models melt can be assumed to occur in the form of tubes, films, and triaxial ellipsoidal inclusions of arbitrary aspect ratio. The conditions in which the solutions for triaxial ellipsoidal inclusions can be approximated by simpler ones for spheroidal inclusions are discussed. It is then shown up to which aspect ratio a published model on melt films is applicable. The problem of interconnection of inclusions is treated with a statistical numerical approach. It is found that a reduced degree of interconnection may have a significant influence on anelastic relaxation at melt fractions corresponding to a moderate modulus decrease. A useful representation of the anelastic melt models is introduced by plotting the relaxation strength against the effective modulus, both of which depend on the state of melting. Such diagrams allow a clear distinction between the different melt geometries and may be used for the interpretation of observed data. Finally, different melt geometries are superimposed and it is found that under certain conditions bulk dissipation may reach the order of that for shear.     

Magnetospheric substorm: Loss of the magnetoplasma equilibrium as a nonlinear dynamical bifurcation

The fast onset of a substorm—a substorm “explosion”—is usually associated with the moment of stability loss of the magnetoplasma equilibrium in the geomagnetic tail. The origination of such a process either from the near-Earth part of the plasma sheet or from its remote part, which is highly stretched into the tail, is now being studied theoretically and verified experimentally (at the present time, in the THEMIS project). In the first case, the resulting disturbance must have the form of a ballooning mode; in the second case, of tearing perturbation. However, in both cases, this stability loss, i.e., a quick breakdown in the balance, replacing the slow quasi-static evolution of configuration, can only occur as a nonlinear process. Taking into account the specific properties of the configuration and possible disturbances in it, we indicate why such a process cannot be the previously proposed “substorm detonation.” It is shown that a suitable mathematical model is a nonlinear dynamical bifurcation occurring on a small time scale, with a delay relative to the moment of passing the marginally stable state.     

On the propagation of pressure-patterns: Part I

Summary The propagation speed of sinoidal troughs and wedges in a steady state flow is determined from consideration of the mass transport due to the bodily motion of the system. Fundamental propositions are established regarding the mutual motion of wind-, pressure-, temperature-, and density-fields.It is found that in a frictionless barotropic general flow, all perturbations are propagated with the same speed—the speed of the general current. In a baroclinic general flow a perturbation will only be propagated without dispersion if it has a specific (sinoidal) horizontal structure.When a sinoidal perturbation is embedded in a baroclinic general flow-field, it will be propagated as though by a barotropic flow with the sameeffective speed. The effective speed can be computed when the vertical structure of the perturbation and of the mean flow are known.It is frequently assumed that the speed of mean flow at some particular level (500 mb is often assumed) gives the «steering» of the surface perturbation by a baroclinic general flow, that is to say, a baroclinic flow steers a perturbation with the speed of an equivalent barotropic field. The present paper provides a rational basis for the concept of an equivalent barotropic flow, but it is to be remembered that the «steering level» does not depend uniquely on the vertical structure of the mean flow-field, but varies from perturbation to perturbation, being lower for shallow perturbations than for (vertically) deep ones.     

Global atmospheric response to specific linear combinations of the main SST modes. Part I: numerical experiments and preliminary results

This article investigates through numerical experiments the controversial question of the impact of El NinCo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena on climate according to large-scale and regional-scale interhemispheric thermal contrast. Eight experiments (two considering only inversed Atlantic thermal anomalies and six combining ENSO warm phase with large-scale interhemispheric contrast and Atlantic anomaly patterns) were performed with the Météo-France atmospheric general circulation model. The definition of boundary conditions from observed composites and principal components is presented and preliminary results concerning the month of August, especially over West Africa and the equatorial Atlantic are discussed. Results are coherent with observations and show that interhemispheric and regional scale sea-surface-temperature anomaly (SST) patterns could significantly modulate the impact of ENSO phenomena: the impact of warm-phase ENSO, relative to the atmospheric model intercomparison project (AMIP) climatology, seems stronger when embedded in global and regional SSTA patterns representative of the post-1970 conditions [i.e. with temperatures warmer (colder) than the long-term mean in the southern hemisphere (northern hemisphere)]. Atlantic SSTAs may also play a significant role.     

New algorithms of emission tomography for passive seismic monitoring of a producing hydrocarbon deposit: Part I. Algorithms of processing and numerical simulation

Two new algorithms of seismic emission tomography and the results of their numerical testing are presented. The algorithms allow eliminating of the screening effect caused by spatially correlated noise, and imaging of deep weak sources. Both algorithms invoke spatial filters, calculated on the basis of singular decomposition of the spectral matrix of the wave field. The key parameter of such a filter is the number of eigenvectors of the spectral matrix, which must be rejected in the process of seismic emission imaging in order to eliminate the screening effect. Consecutive increasing in the number of rejected eigenvectors enables imaging of ever weaker seismic sources.     

Multitemperature compaction model of a magma melt in the asthenosphere: A numerical approach

A numerical compaction model of a fluid in a viscous skeleton is developed with regard for a phase transition. The temperatures of phases are different. The solution is found by the method of asymptotic expansion relative to the incompressible variant, which removes a number of computational problems related to the weak compressibility of the skeleton. For each approximation, the problem is solved by the finite element method. The process of 2-D compaction of a magmatic melt in the asthenosphere under a fault zone is examined for one-and two-temperature cases. The magmatic flow concentrates in this region due to a lower pore pressure. Higher temperature magma entering from lower levels causes a local heating of the skeleton and intense melting of its fusible component. In the two-temperature model, a magma concentration anomaly develops under the fault zone. The fundamental limitations substantially complicating the corresponding calculations within the framework of a one-temperature model are pointed out and the necessity of applying a multitemperature variant is substantiated.     

The period of the free core nutation: towards a dynamical basis for an ‘extra-flattening’ of the core-mantle boundary

Indirect observations and theoretical predictions for the period of the free core nutation (FCN) differ by anywhere from 15 to 30 days, and various effects have been invoked in attempts to explain this difference. The favored explanation remains as much as 5% departure in the flattening of the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from that of its hydrostatic reference figure. This 5% ‘extra-flattening’ of the CMB is not seen at the Earth's surface, where the difference is only about 0.5%. In contrast to the a posteriori model adjustments used to determine this up to 5% value, and the kinematic results available from viscous flow modeling using the seismically determined lateral heterogeneity in density data, we consider this problem from the perspective of a forward-modeling dynamical study. More specifically, we investigate the related problem of flow-induced surface and CMB topography, arising from convection in the mantle. As such, we have completed a comparative and systematic study of relative surface and CMB topography resulting from numerical models of mantle convection. When effects resulting from boundary curvature are isolated, it appears that the magnitude of CMB topography produced is insufficient in producing a significant extra-flattening of the CMB. However, results concerning effects solely resulting from a depth-dependent mantle viscosity profile, indicate that this factor may indeed lead to enhanced topography at the CMB of the magnitude required to produce the extra-flattening there.     

A multi-layered kinematic dynamo model: implications of a stratified upper layer in the Earth's core

It has been suggested that there exists a stably stratified electrically conducting layer at the top of the Earth's outer fluid core and that lateral temperature gradients in the lower mantle is capable of a driving thermal-wind-type flow near the core–mantle boundary. We investigate how such a flow in a stable layer could influence the geomagnetic field and the geodynamo using a very simple two-dimensional kinematic dynamo model in Cartesian geometry. The dynamo has four layers representing the inner core, convecting lower outer core, stable upper core, and insulating mantle. An α² dynamo operates in the convecting outer core and a horizontal shear flow is imposed in the stable layer. Exact dynamo solutions are obtained for a range of parameters, including different conductivities for the stable layer and inner core. This allows us to connect our solutions with known, simpler solutions of a single-layer α² dynamo, and thereby assess the effects of the extra layers. We confirm earlier results that a stable, static layer can enhance dynamo action. We find that shear flows produce dynamo wave solutions with a different spatial structure from the steady α² dynamos solutions. The stable layer controls the behavior of the dynamo system through the interface conditions, providing a new means whereby lateral variations on the boundary can influence the geomagnetic field.     

Damping characteristics of gravity waves obliquely incident on a monomolecular film: Part I

Viscous damping characteristics of long-crested gravity waves, propagating obliquely through a long monomolecular film of finite width, are considered for physical situations in which the wind is absent. The methods employed in the investigation are based on boundary-layer techniques, and formulae are derived for the local spatially-dependent decay coefficient and amplitude-function due to propagation of deep-water waves across extensible films. In II, such formulae are illustrated graphically to demonstrate the influence of angle of incidence, film edges, and surfactant properties, and some reference is made in relation to practically realisable values of the surface elasticity .     

The impact of freshwater discharges on the ocean circulation in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area Part I: model validation

We assess the performance of an eddy-recognizing numerical ocean model in simulating the pattern and variability of the hydrography in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area. The model we use is a version of the widely used Princeton ocean model employing a terrain-following vertical coordinate. Results from a series of five multi-year simulations of the mesoscale response are described. The simulations differ in their representation of the lateral freshwater supply to the model ocean of which the first is a reference simulation. The next four are variations in which the river discharges and/or the Baltic outflow are given more realistic representations. For validation, we have used in situ hydrographic data. A novelty is that we use the concepts of freshwater height and potential energy anomaly as objective validation tools. We find that, in general, the model faithfully reproduces many of the observed hydrographic features including their mean patterns and their variance. Not surprisingly, we find that the Baltic outflow is by far the most significant freshwater source in terms of its influence on the hydrography in the area, a result corroborating earlier findings. The best validation is obtained when all freshwater supply is made as realistic as possible, in particular the Baltic outflow. We also find that the large scale cyclonic circulation and the location of fronts are robust characteristics of the Skagerrak/northern North Sea circulation given the impact changes in the freshwater input has on the hydrography. Finally, we find that a further exploration of the impact of the lateral open boundary forcing, e.g., the input of Atlantic water, is needed.     

Investigating prediction performance of an artificial neural network and a numerical model of the tidal signal at Puerto Belgrano, Bahia Blanca Estuary (Argentina)

In the present study we compare performances of the prediction of hourly tidal level variations at Puerto Belgrano, a coastal site in the Bahia Blanca Estuary (Argentina), by means of the MOHID model, which is a numerical model designed for coastal and estuarine shallow water applications, and of an artificial neural network (ANN). It was shown that the ANN model is able to predict the hourly tidal levels over long term duration with at least seven days of observations and with a better performance in respect to the numerical model. Our findings can be useful to implement ANN-based tools for future studies of the hydrodynamics of Bahía Blanca estuary.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke