The He I 10830 Å Line as an Indicator of Solar Activity

The behavior of the He I 10830 Å infrared triplet parameters in active and quiet solar regions was traced from 1976 until 2000. We analyze the correlation between the central depth of the main He I line component and other solar activity indices: the Wolf number, the radiation flux at a frequency of 2800 MHz, the mean number of flares in sunspot groups, and the mean solar magnetic field. We show that the strong correlation between the He I 10830 Å line depth and the phase of the 11-year solar cycle allows this depth to be effectively used as a new solar activity index both on long time scales (years) and on times scales of the order of a month or even days. The suggested new activity index is shown to have advantages over the universally accepted indices. The depth of the He I 10830 Å line in quiet regions was found to increase from the phase of minimum solar activity to the phase of maximum by a factor of about 2. In active regions, this increase is less than 30%. The differences between the cyclic variations of the chromospheric He I 10830 Å line radiation in active and quiet structures on the solar disk are indicative of the probable differences in the nature of cyclicity and its manifestations in magnetic fields of different spatial scales. The background magnetic fields appear to vary during the solar cycle more strongly than do the local fields associated with sunspots, faculae, and activity complexes. We suggest using regular observations in the He I 10830 Å line to predict solar activity.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation and the Last Solar Minimum

In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.     

Prediction for the amplitude of solar cycle 24 from the pattern of activity near the cycle minimum

Correlations are investigated between the pattern of solar activity described by the smoothed monthly relative sunspot numbers (Wolf numbers) near the minimum of a solar cycle and the cycle amplitude. The closest correlation is found between the amplitude of a solar cycle and the sum of the decrease in activity over two years prior to the cycle minimum and the increase in activity over two years after the minimum; the correlation coefficient between these parameters is 0.92. This parameter is used as a precursor to predict the amplitude of solar cycle 24, which is expected to reach its maximum amplitude (85 ± 12) in February 2014. Based on the correlations between the mean parameters of solar cycles, cycle 24 is expected to last for approximately 11.3 years and the minimum of the next cycle 25 is predicted for May 2020.     

Observations of hysteresis in solar cycle variations among seven solar activity indicators

We show that smoothed time series of 7 indices of solar activity exhibit significant solar cycle dependent differences in their relative variations during the past 20 years. In some cases these observed hysteresis patterns start to repeat over more than one solar cycle, giving evidence that this is a normal feature of solar variability. Among the indices we study, we find that the hysteresis effects are approximately simple phase shifts, and we quantify these phase shifts in terms of lag times behind the leading index, the International Sunspot Number. Our measured lag times range from less than one month to greater than four months and can be much larger than lag times estimated from short-term variations of these same activity indices during the emergence and decay of major active regions. We argue that hysteresis represents a real delay in the onset and decline of solar activity and is an important clue in the search for physical processes responsible for changing solar emission at various wavelengths. The High Altitude Observatory is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Systematic Time Delay of Hemispheric Solar Activity

Five solar-activity indices – the monthly-mean sunspot numbers from January 1945 to March 2008, the monthly-mean sunspot areas during the period of May 1874 to March 2008, the monthly numbers of sunspot groups from May 1874 to May 2008, the monthly-mean flare indices from January 1966 to December 2006, and the numbers of solar filaments per Carrington rotation in the time interval of solar rotations 876 to 1823 – have been used to show a systematic time delay between northern and southern hemispheric solar activities in a cycle. It is found that solar activity does not occur synchronously in the northern and southern hemispheres, and there is a systematic time lag or lead (phase shift) between northern and southern hemispheric solar activity in a cycle. About an eight-cycle period is inferred to exist in such phase shifts. The activity on the Sun may be governed by two different and coupled processes, not by a single process.     

North-south distribution of solar flares during cycle 23

In this paper, we investigate the spatial distribution of solar flares in the northern and southern hemispheres of the Sun that occurred during the period 1996 to 2003. This period of investigation includes the ascending phase, the maximum and part of the descending phase of solar cycle 23. It is revealed that the flare activity during this cycle is low compared to the previous solar cycle, indicating the violation of Gnevyshev-Ohl rule. The distribution of flares with respect to heliographic latitudes shows a significant asymmetry between northern and southern hemisphere which is maximum during the minimum phase of the solar cycle. The present study indicates that the activity dominates the northern hemisphere in general during the rising phase of the cycle (1997–2000). The dominance of northern hemisphere shifted towards the southern hemisphere after the solar maximum in 2000 and remained there in the successive years. Although the annual variations in the asymmetry time series during cycle 23 are quite different from cycle 22, they are comparable to cycle 21.     

Diurnal anisotropy of cosmic rays during intensive solar activity for the period 2001–2014

The diurnal variation of cosmic ray intensity, based on the records of two neutron monitor stations at Athens (Greece) and Oulu (Finland) for the time period 2001 to 2014, is studied. This period covers the maximum and the descending phase of the solar cycle 23, the minimum of the solar cycles 23/24 and the ascending phase of the solar cycle 24.These two stations differ in their geographic latitude and magnetic threshold rigidity. The amplitude and phase of the diurnal anisotropy vectors have been calculated on annual and monthly basis.From our analysis it is resulted that there is a different behaviour in the characteristics of the diurnal anisotropy during the different phases of the solar cycle, depended on the solar magnetic field polarity, but also during extreme events of solar activity, such as Ground Level Enhancements and cosmic ray events, such as Forbush decreases and magnetospheric events. These results may be useful to Space Weather forecasting and especially to Biomagnetic studies.     

A new criterion for determining the time of a solar minimum

We propose a minimum level of the smoothed values for the solar constant during a period of low sunspot activity as a new additional criterion for determining the time of a minimum between solar cycles. An indicator for the time of a minimum between cycles is the time at which a minimum level in the average monthly values of the integral flux of solar radiation smoothed over thirteen months (when the last four values of the flux are greater than the previous minimum point) is achieved. We successfully tested the new criterion to determine the time of the previous minima between cycles 21 and 22, 22 and 23, and 23 and 24.     

An experiment to observe the vertical gradient in line-of-sight velocity oscillations

Using intermediate degree p-mode frequency datasets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic indices show a `hysteresis' phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle, as the descending path always seems to follow a higher track than the ascending one. However, for the radiative indices, the paths cross each other indicating phase reversal.     

Variability of the solar chromospheric network over the solar cycle

From a large sample of the Kodaikanal spectroheliograms in the Call K line we have studied the variations in the intensity of the network elements over two solar cycles and have estimated their contribution to the overall variability seen in the disc-averaged K line profiles. The relative contribution of the network elements and the bright points to the K-emission are of the order of 25% and 15% respectively. We have shown that the area of the network elements is anti-correlated with the solar activity, and it increases by about 24% during the solar minimum compared to the maximum period.     

Solar Oscillation Frequency Changes on Time Scales of Nine Days

We establish that global solar p-mode frequencies can be measured with sufficient precision on time scales as short as nine days to detect activity-related shifts. Using ten years of GONG data, we report that mode-mass and error-weighted frequency shifts derived from nine days are significantly correlated with the strength of solar activity and are consistent with long-duration measurements from GONG and the SOHO/MDI instrument. The analysis of the year-wise distribution of the frequency shifts with change in activity indices shows that both the linear-regression slopes and the magnitude of the correlation varies from year to year and they are well correlated with each other. The study also indicates that the magnetic indices behave differently in the rising and falling phases of the activity cycle. For the short-duration nine-day observations, we report a higher sensitivity to activity.     

Empirical estimate of p-mode frequency shift for solar cycle 23

We have obtained empirical relations between the p-mode frequency shift and the change in solar activity indices. The empirical relations are determined on the basis of frequencies obtained from BBSO and GONG stations during solar cycle 22. These relations are applied to estimate the change in mean frequency for the cycle 21 and 23. A remarkable agreement between the calculated and observed frequency shifts for the ascending phase of cycle 23, indicates that the derived relations are independent of epoch and do not change significantly from cycle to cycle. We propose that these relations could be used to estimate the shift in p-mode frequencies for past, present and future solar activity cycles, if the solar activity index is known. The maximum frequency shift for cycle 23 is estimated to be 265±90 nHz, corresponding to a predicted maximum smoothed sunspot number 118.1±35.     

Frequency analysis of photometric observations of HD 101158

Observations of solar radio emission at 3 cm wavelength have been made at Japal-Rangapur Observatory for 1980–1981, the solar maximum year using the 3 m radio telescope. The correlation between microwave solar emissions and the sunspot activity on monthly basis has been found to be high during the maximum phase and in the high cm wavelength band. The basic component has been estimated statistically for successive solar rotations using the data obtained at Japal-Rangapur Observatory. Further, this was compared with the data obtained at other cm wavelengths during 1980–1981 and the solar minimum period 1975–1976 of the 21st cycle. The comparison showed pronounced dips in flux levels at different wavelengths during the summer months of the solar maximum year which may be attributed to the presence of coronal holes in the various levels of the solar atmosphere. The computed basic component values showed pronounced variation at high cm wavelengths for the solar maximum period with dissimilar variations at different wavelengths. During the solar minimum period the variations were negligibly small and showed more or less constant level of activity.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.     

Evolution of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity Indices, and Their Relationship: 1960?�C?2001

We employ annually averaged solar and geomagnetic activity indices for the period 1960??C?2001 to analyze the relationship between different measures of solar activity as well as the relationship between solar activity and various aspects of geomagnetic activity. In particular, to quantify the solar activity we use the sunspot number R _s, group sunspot number R _g, cumulative sunspot area Cum, solar radio flux F10.7, and interplanetary magnetic field strength IMF. For the geomagnetic activity we employ global indices Ap, Dst and Dcx, as well as the regional geomagnetic index RES, specifically estimated for the European region. In the paper we present the relative evolution of these indices and quantify the correlations between them. Variations have been found in: i) time lag between the solar and geomagnetic indices; ii) relative amplitude of the geomagnetic and solar activity peaks; iii) dual-peak distribution in some of solar and geomagnetic indices. The behavior of geomagnetic indices is correlated the best with IMF variations. Interestingly, among geomagnetic indices, RES shows the highest degree of correlation with solar indices.     

Evolution of the Green Corona in 1996–2002

We analysed the green-line coronal intensities (530.3 nm, Fexiv), both their time- latitudinal distribution as well as the coronal index of solar activity (CI) over the period 1996–2002. Maximum values of the CI (smoothed) were observed in mid-August 2001, even though the `first' peak was observed in the period January–April 2000. The maximum of the Wolf number occurred in 2000, April – July, and the `second peak' occurred in December 2001–March 2002. Both indices have a similar course in the cycle, but their maxima are shifted by 1.5 year. There was high correlation between CI and Wolf number, the 2800 MHz radio flux, the X-ray 0.1–0.8 nm flux and cosmic-ray flux. The CI values in present cycle 23 are lower than those of the two former solar cycles 21 and 22 by about 1/3. Polar branches, which separated from the principal equatorward branch at mid-latitudes in the cycle minimum, 1996, reached the poles around 2000. The new principal branch for cycle 24 split in 2001, turned over around ±60° in 2002.5 and moves to the equator, where it will end in 2019. Minimum between cycles 23 and 24 will occur around 2007.5, cycle maximum 24 around 2012.5. Poleward branches in cycle 24 will reach the solar poles in 2011.     

Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the North – South Asymmetry of Solar Activity

The north – south (N – S) asymmetry of solar activity is investigated by using the data on coronal green-line brightness and total number and total area of sunspots over the period of 1939  –  2001. Typical time variations of the N – S asymmetry are found to be consonant in these indices. Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) of solar activity are well recognizable in the N – S asymmetry of the examined indices. Moreover, the QBO are much better manifested in the N – S asymmetry of the individual indices than in the original (N plus S) indices. The time variations of relative QBO power are synchronous for the N – S asymmetry of various solar activity indices whereas such a synchronization is weaker for the indices themselves. It is revealed that the relative QBO power found in the N – S asymmetry of the studied indices has a negative correlation with the value of the N – S asymmetry itself. The findings indicate that the N – S asymmetry should be regarded as a fundamental phenomenon of solar activity similarly manifested in different activity indices. These findings should be taken into account when any dynamo theory of solar activity is constructed.     

Observation of hysteresis between solar activity indicators andp-mode frequency shifts for solar cycle 22

Using intermediate degreep-mode frequency data sets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic activity indicators show a &amp;#x201C;hysteresis&amp;#x201D; phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle while for radiative indices, the separation between the paths are well within the error limits.     

Local Fractional Frequency Shifts Used as Tracers of Magnetic Activity

Using data from SOI-MDI (Haber et al., 2000), we compute the local frequencies of high-degree p modes and f modes. The frequencies are obtained through ring-diagram mode fitting. The Dense-Pack data set consists of a mosaic of 189 overlapping tiles, each tracked separately at the surface rotation rate over 1664-min time intervals during the Dynamics Programs. Each tile is 16° square and the tile centers are separated by 7.5° in latitude and longitude. For each sampling day and for each tile, we have computed the frequency shift measured relative to the temporal and spatial average of the entire set of frequencies. The motion of active regions as they rotate across the solar disk is vividly traced by these measurements. Active regions appear as locations of large positive frequency shifts. If the shifts are averaged over the solar disk and are scaled down to the appropriate wave number regime, the magnitude and frequency dependence of the shifts are consistent with the measured changes in global oscillation frequencies that occur over the solar cycle. As with the frequency shifts of low-degree global oscillations, the frequency dependence of the shifts indicates that the physical phenomena inducing the shifts is confined to the surface layers of the Sun.     

Period and phase of the 88-year solar cycle and the Maunder minimum: Evidence for a chaotic sun

The problem of whether the solar dynamo is quasi-periodic or chaotic is addressed by examining 1500 years of sunspot, geomagnetic and auroral activity cycles. We find sub-harmonics of the fundamental solar cycle period during the years preceding the Maunder minimum and loss of phase of the subharmonic on emergence from it. These phenomena are indicative of chaos. They indicate that the solar dynamo is chaotic and is operating in a region close to the transition between period doubling and chaos. Since Maunder type minima reoccur irregularly for millennia, it appears that the Sun remains close to this transition to and from chaos. We postulate this as a universal characteristic of solar type stars caused by feedback in the dynamo number.     

Variation of solar irradiance and mode frequencies during Maunder minimum

Using the sunspot numbers reported during the Maunder minimum and the empirical relations between the mode frequencies and solar activity indices, the variations in the total solar irradiance and 10.7 cm radio flux for the period 1645 to 1715 is estimated. We find that the total solar irradiance and radio flux during the Maunder minimum decreased by 0.19% and 52% respectively, as compared to the values for solar cycle 22. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.