Multi-model assessment of global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential under climate change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971–2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18–33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11–14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socio-economic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41–51% (RCP8.5–SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.     

近60 a来全球河川径流量变化趋势及影响因素分析

基于全球2 894个流域的河川径流量、归一化植被指数（Normalized Differential Vegetation Index,NDVI）以及气温和降水量长期数据,发现年内月均径流量（MQ）呈上升、下降以及不显著变化趋势的流域比例分别为9.1%、12.4%和78.5%,年内最小月径流量（LQ）呈3种变化趋势的流域比例分别为24.1%、11.7%和64.2%,年内最大月径流量（HQ）呈3种变化趋势的流域比例分别为6.4%、13.6%和79.9%。在区域（大陆和纬度带）和全球尺度上,没有出现LQ下降和HQ上升变化趋势的现象,MQ下降与HQ下降联系在一起,MQ上升与LQ上升联系在一起,表明区域和全球尺度上水资源量及年内分配在过去60多年里是改善的。进一步分析发现,气候变化是导致水资源量和年内分配变化的主要因素。但与年内月极端径流量（LQ或HQ）变化不同的是,发生年内月极端径流量的月份大多发生了显著的改变,这个改变可能对社会和自然生态系统以及依靠自然节律的生产生活方式产生深远影响。     

A climatological perspective of water vapor at the UTLS region over different global monsoon regions: observations inferred from the Aura-MLS and reanalysis data

The Aura-MLS observations of eight years from 2004 to 2011 have been utilized to understand the hydration and the dehydration mechanism over the northern and the southern hemispheric monsoon (NH and SH) regions. The monsoon regions considered are the Asian Summer Monsoon, East Asian Summer Monsoon, Arizona Monsoon (AM), North African Monsoon, South American Monsoon and the Australian Monsoon. The annual cycle of water vapor as expected shows maxima over the NH during June–August and during December–February over the SH. The time taken by the air parcels over the NH monsoon regions is found to be different compared to that over the SH monsoon regions. The analysis shows the concentration of water vapor in the upper troposphere and the lower stratosphere (UTLS) has not changed over these eight years in both the hemispheres during their respective monsoon seasons. The present analysis show different processes viz., direct overshooting convection, horizontal advection, temperature and cirrus clouds in influencing the distribution of water vapor to the UTLS over these different monsoon regions. Analysis of the UTLS water vapor with temperature and ice water content shows that the AM is hydrating the stratosphere compared to all the other monsoon regions where the water vapor is getting dehydrated. Thus it is envisaged that the present results will have important implications in understanding the exchange processes across the tropopause over the different monsoon regions and its role in stratosphere chemistry.     

Climatological features of the global tropical subsidence region based on satellite observations

Consisting of subtropical highs and tropical buffer zone, the global tropical subsidence region is the subsidence branches of Hadley cell, Walker circulation and monsoon circulation which are important com-ponents of the global general circulation. This region is closely connected with Asian monsoon. Based on long-term satellite observations of OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) and HIRS-Tbl2 (the bright tem-perature from High-resolution Infra-red Radiation Sounder Channel 12 (6.7μm)), the climatological fea-tures over the global tropical subsidence region are studied in this paper and the main findings are as follows:1) Based on the physical meaning of satellite observed HIRS-12 and comparison with the satellite ob?served OLR and climatological maps of conventional observations of geopotential height and vertical veloc?ity at 500 hPa from NCEP / NCAR reanalysis data, it was found that HIRS-12 might be the best indicator of the global tropical subsidence region from the satellite observations.2) Using satellite observed HIRS-12, some new climatological features were revealed, especially those related with Asian monsoon.3) Comparing the climatological characteristics of tropical subsidence regions between both hemi-spheres, it was found that the circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is more complicated and much closely related with monsoon circulation than that in the Southern Hemisphere. Sudden decay of subsidence movement before monsoon onsets over the South China Sea revealed by HIRS-12 suggested that in the future study of Asian monsoon, it should be paid attention to not only the development of convection but also the variation of tropical subsidence region. It is very useful to monitor the convective and subsidence movements in the tropics by using OLR and HIRS-Tbl2 have been observed from satellite.     

基于再分析资料的西南区域近50 a空中水资源的气候特征

利用1961—2012 年NCEP/ NCAR 的再分析月平均资料,分析了中国西南区域(四川、重庆、云南、贵州、广西大部分地区、西藏东部)水汽总量和水汽输送的气候特征。结果表明：西南区域水汽总量近50 a 来呈整体减少趋势;水汽含量在850—700 hPa 之间最为丰富;西南区域东湿西干,重庆、贵州、广西、四川东部水汽总量相对丰富;影响西南区域全年水汽量的有四个输送通道,春季水汽主要来源于孟加拉湾和偏西气流,夏季主要受到孟加拉湾和印度洋季风影响,秋季水汽主要来源于西太平洋,冬季则主要来源于偏西风和西太平洋;西南区域全年主要为水汽汇合区（除云南大部分地区以外）,常年有两个水汽辐合中心,一个在西藏与四川交接处（青藏高原东南侧）,一个在贵州及其附近地区;而云南上空主要为水汽辐散,仅夏季部分地区为水汽汇合区。     

Evidence for zonally-trapped propagating waves in the eastern atlantic from satellite sea surface temperature observations

It has been hypothesized (Moore et al., 1978; O'Brien et al., 1978), that equatorial upwelling and subsequent coastal upwelling on the eastern boundary of the Atlantic Ocean are the result of eastward propagating equatorially trapped Kelvin waves in the Atlantic. Concurrent satellite and ship sea surface temperature observations taken during the GATE experiment permit validation of the satellite data as well as relating sea surface temperature (SST) variability to the local current dynamics. A method based on cross-correlations and cross-spectra of the SST field at various locations is utilized to test the Kelvin wave hypothesis. Significant periodic variation of time lags in the SST variability in the eastern Atlantic is observed by the spectral techniques. Satellite data for the 1974 summer show periodic variability which fits either eastward or westward propagating waves with 1 m s^-1 phase speed, i.e., SST supports the quasi-continuous presence of Kelvin or Yanai waves. We find no evidence for a seasonally solitary eastward propagating signal in the eastern Atlantic from SST.     

江苏省土壤湿度观测资料与再分析资料对比分析研究

利用江苏省2010—2015年的60个站点土壤湿度观测资料,对欧洲中心ERA-Interim再分析资料(ERA)和美国宇航局再分析资料(MERRA)的两套土壤湿度数据在江苏地区的可靠性进行了评估。结果表明:相比于ERA再分析资料,MERRA较好地再现出江苏省次表层年平均土壤湿度的空间分布特征,但是两种资料的次表层和深层土壤湿度的数值均小于观测。ERA和MERRA基本都能揭示出江苏省次表层土壤湿度的季节变化特征,但是深层土壤湿度与观测仍有较大差距。在时间演变方面,ERA次表层土壤湿度与站点观测在研究时段内较为接近,EOF分析揭示出1979—2016年江苏省次表层土壤湿度存在区域一致型与南北偶极型两个主要的年代际变率模态。但是对于深层土壤湿度时间演变而言,两种再分析资料都与观测有较大的差距。总体而言,再分析资料的次表层土壤湿度与站点观测较为接近,但是由于再分析资料陆面模式中地下水等影响深层土壤湿度的关键过程刻画较为简单,使得深层土壤湿度与观测有较大的差距。     

Temporal and spatial variations of global deep cloud systems based on CloudSat and CALIPSO satellite observations

ABSTRACT The spatial and temporal global distribution of deep clouds was analyzed using a four-year dataset （2007-10） based on observations from CloudSat and CALIPSO. Results showed that in the Northern Hemisphere, the number of deep cloud systems （DCS） reached a maximum in summer and a minimum in winter. Seasonal variations in the number of DCS varied zonally in the Southern Hemisphere. DCS occurred most frequently over central Africa, the northern parts of South America and Australia, and Tibet. The mean cloud-top height of deep cloud cores （TDCC） decreased toward high latitudes in all seasons. DCS with the highest TDCC and deepest cores occurred over east and south Asian monsoon regions, west-central Africa and northern South America. The width of DCS （WDCS） increased toward high latitudes in all seasons. In general, DCS were more developed in the horizontal than in the vertical direction over high latitudes and vice versa over lower lat- itudes. Findings from this study show that different mechanisms are behind the development of DCS at different latitudes. Most DCS at low latitudes are deep convective clouds which are highly developed in the vertical direction but cover a rela tively small area in the horizontal direction; these DCS have the highest TDCC and smallest WDCS. The DCS at midlatitudes are more likely to be caused by cyclones, so they have less vertical development than DCS at low latitudes. DCS at high latitudes are mainly generated by large frontal systems, so they have the largest WDCS and the smallest TDCC.     

中国冬季最低气温观测与再分析资料的比较

运用EOF分解、线性趋势分析、方差分析、小波分析、相关分析等方法,从均值、长期变化、年际和年代际变化特征等方面对NCEP/NCAR(N1T)、NCEP/DOE(N2T)、ERA-Interim(ET)、JRA-25(JT)4种再分析资料集和194站观测资料集中1979—2012年我国冬季最低气温(WTMIN)进行比较。结果表明:(1)ET在再现观测冬季最低气温多年平均时最优;(2)除新疆北部和西南部以及东北北部有降低趋势外,我国大部分地区WTMIN有升高的趋势,N1T对观测温度长期变化趋势再现能力优于其他3种资料;(3)观测WTMIN在中国北方和高原地区年际和年代际变化大于南方地区,四种再分析WTMIN对我国冬季最低气温的年际和年代际变化的再现在不同区域各有所长,总体上以ET为优。(4)再分析资料在再现观测WTMIN年代际时间尺度上的能力相当,以ET最优,尤其是在我国中东部地区和新疆北部地区。N1T和N2T对东北地区观测冬季最低气温年际变化的再现能力较好,ET再现观测WTMIN在1990s之前,2005年之后的3~4 a变化周期特征时能力略优于其他3种资料。     

A global assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity

This paper presents a global scale assessment of the impact of climate change on water scarcity. Patterns of climate change from 21 Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four SRES scenarios are applied to a global hydrological model to estimate water resources across 1339 watersheds. The Water Crowding Index (WCI) and the Water Stress Index (WSI) are used to calculate exposure to increases and decreases in global water scarcity due to climate change. 1.6 (WCI) and 2.4 (WSI) billion people are estimated to be currently living within watersheds exposed to water scarcity. Using the WCI, by 2050 under the A1B scenario, 0.5 to 3.1 billion people are exposed to an increase in water scarcity due to climate change (range across 21 GCMs). This represents a higher upper-estimate than previous assessments because scenarios are constructed from a wider range of GCMs. A substantial proportion of the uncertainty in the global-scale effect of climate change on water scarcity is due to uncertainty in the estimates for South Asia and East Asia. Sensitivity to the WCI and WSI thresholds that define water scarcity can be comparable to the sensitivity to climate change pattern. More of the world will see an increase in exposure to water scarcity than a decrease due to climate change but this is not consistent across all climate change patterns. Additionally, investigation of the effects of a set of prescribed global mean temperature change scenarios show rapid increases in water scarcity due to climate change across many regions of the globe, up to 2 °C, followed by stabilisation to 4 °C.     

Balloon-borne observations of mid-latitude stratospheric water vapour: comparisons with HALOE and MLS satellite data

We present here in situ measurements obtained between 1991 and 2011 in outer-vortex conditions by the ELHYSA balloon-borne frost-point hygrometer. The frost-point hygrometer profiles are used for comparisons with the satellite data from version 19 (v19) and version 3.3 (v3.3) of the HALogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) respectively. Potential Vorticity mapping is applied to all data sets to remove contributions of transient tropical intrusions and polar vortex air masses and hence ensure consistent comparisons between the balloon and satellite observations. Our selected balloon in situ observations are too sparse to directly infer mid-latitude stratospheric time series for continuous comparisons with HALOE and MLS records or derive water vapour trends but can be used to validate the satellite data. A mean difference of ?0.83?±?1.58 % (?0.04?±?0.07 ppmv) is obtained between HALOE v19 data and the balloon frost-point observations (with respect to HALOE) over the 30–80 hPa altitude range. The hygrometer-HALOE differences appear time-dependent as already presented in the literature. The mean difference reaches 2.80?±?0.96 % (0.13?±?0.04 ppmv) for MLS v3.3, with MLS systematically wetter than the balloon data reflecting a systematic bias between both datasets. We use our balloon data as reference to provide some information about the HALOE-MLS difference. From post-2000 ELHYSA-HALOE and ELHYSA-MLS comparisons, we find a HALOE-MLS difference matching the expected bias, with MLS v3.3 6.60?±?2.80 % (0.27?±?0.11 ppmv) wetter than HALOE v19. From the results obtained from our balloon-satellite data comparisons, we finally discuss the issue about merging the HALOE and MLS data sets to provide stratospheric water vapour trends.     

青藏高原及周边UTLS水汽时空特征的多源资料对比

利用Aura卫星微波临边观测仪(Microwave Limb Sounder,MLS)数据,评估了ERA-I、MERRA、JRA-55、CFSR和NCEP2等5套再分析资料的水汽数据在青藏高原及周边上对流层-下平流层(Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere,UTLS)的质量,然后选取其中质量较好的两套水汽数据,分析它们对青藏高原及周边UTLS水汽的时空分布和演变的表征能力。结果表明,与MLS数据相比,5套再分析资料中在UTLS普遍偏湿,最大偏湿在上对流层215 hPa,约为165%,而在下平流层,ERA-I和MERRA与MLS的差异相对较小。总的来看,ERA-I和MERRA表征的水汽与MLS更为接近。进一步的对比表明,ERA-I和MERRA中青藏高原及周边水汽含量的时空分布与MLS较为接近,夏季能够表征青藏高原在纬向和经向上的水汽高值区,冬季能够表征对流层顶、西风急流中心附近的水汽梯度带,而且MERRA的结果要好于ERA-I。ERA-I、MERRA和MLS中青藏高原地区的水汽季节演变都表现为冬季1-2月水汽含量低,夏季7-8月水汽含量高,水汽的季节变化在200~300 hPa最大。MLS资料显示,在青藏高原地区对流层顶附近,存在随时间向上向极的水汽传输信号。相较而言,ERA-I对向上水汽传输信号的表征更好,而MERRA对下平流层(100 hPa)向极水汽传输信号的表征更好。     

Assessment of interpolated ERA-40 reanalysis temperature and precipitation against observations of the Balkan Peninsula

Due to their ready availability and temporal and spatial consistency, reanalysis data are widely used within the climate community. Nevertheless, higher spatial resolutions are often required and statistical interpolation techniques are applied to increase the data resolution. This work aims to derive a set of high spatial resolution data through three-dimensional interpolation of daily temperature and precipitation. Thin plate spline interpolation has been chosen and used to interpolate ERA-40 temperature and precipitation from a coarse grid (110 km) into a finer one of 1-km spatial resolution. The study evaluates the method by comparing the simulated variables with available in situ meteorological measurements. The chosen stations are distributed over the study region and, most importantly, contain information from a range of altitudes. The results indicate that accounting for the topography in the interpolation process improves the comparisons, with the biggest improvements being evident in the most mountainous areas. The method is found to be better in estimating temperature than precipitation fields. Moreover, the method performs better for maximum temperature in high altitudes and for minimum temperature in low altitudes.     

The field of integrated water vapor over northeastern Siberia from the data of global navigation satellite systems

Seasonal and diurnal variations in integrated water vapor over northeastern Siberia derived from the data of global navigation satellite systems are considered. It is demonstrated that integrated water vapor is characterized by asymmetric annual variations with the maximum in July and with the minimum in February. The meridional gradient of integrated water vapor during the year varies from -8.7 mm/1000 km in July to -0.5 mm/1000 km in February. The zonal gradient reaches 1.0 mm/1000 km in July and -2.8 mm/1000 km in September. It is shown that the diurnal maximum of integrated water vapor is registered in the evening and at night and the amplitude of diurnal variations is 0.25-0.70 mm in summer and 0.08-0.21 mm in winter.     

An investigation of spectral change as influenced by irrigation and evapotranspiration volume estimation in western Nebraska

Retrospective satellite image data were evaluated for their ability to demonstrate the influence of center-pivot irrigation development in western Nebraska on spectral change and climate-related factors for the region. Periodic images of an albedo index and a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were generated from calibrated Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data and used to monitor spectral changes associated with irrigation development from 1972 through 1986. The albedo index was not useful for monitoring irrigation development. For the NDVI, it was found that proportions of counties in irrigated agriculture, as discriminated by a threshold, were more highly correlated with reported ground estimates of irrigated agriculture than were county mean greenness values. A similar result was achieved when using coarse resolution Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) image data for estimating irrigated agriculture.The NDVI images were used to evaluate a procedure for making areal estimates of actual evapotranspiration (ET) volumes. Estimates of ET volumes for test counties, using reported ground acreages and corresponding standard crop coefficients, were correlated with the estimates of ET volume using crop coefficients scaled to NDVI values and pixel counts of crop areas. These county estimates were made under the assumption that soil water availability was unlimited. For nonirrigated vegetation, this may result in over-estimation of ET volumes. Ground information regarding crop types and acreages are required to derive the NDVI scaling factor. Potential ET, estimated with the Jensen-Haise model, is common to both methods. These results, achieved with both MSS and AVHRR data, show promise for providing climatologically important land surface information for regional and global climate models.TGS Technology, Inc. Work performed under U.S. Geological Survey contract 14-08-0001-22521;     

基于静止卫星的青藏高原及周边地区夏季对流的气候特征分析

利用2010-2014年静止气象卫星FY-2E的红外TBB资料,分析了夏季青藏高原（高原）及周围地区对流的气候特征。分析表明,5月,高原最主要的对流发生在东部边缘。6月,随着亚洲夏季风爆发,最强的对流（强对流）发生在高原的东南侧。7-8月,强盛的西南风给高原中东部部分地区带来丰沛的水汽,高原的东南部形成一条对流（强对流）活跃带。在高原西部,对流发生频率大于6%的区域出现在西部南麓的时间约为37候,并于7月底-8月初到达最北。在高原中部,对流（强对流）开始活跃的时间为6月上旬（中旬）,维持整个盛夏,并分别经历3次向北推进,最北约到达34°N。在高原东部,5月底开始对流都处于相对活跃期,有3次（两次）对流（强对流）的北进。高原对流（强对流）发生频率存在两个季节内变率大值区,分别位于高原中南部雅鲁藏布江中段和高原东南部西藏、青海、四川三省交界处。对流发生频率的第一模态主要是高原东南部和南部的印度季风区对流的反向模态,第二模态则体现了高原西部和印度大陆80°E以西地区与南亚大陆80°E以东地区的对流发生频率的三极型变化。      

Decadal variation of surface solar radiation in the Tibetan Plateau from observations, reanalysis and model simulations

In this study, the annual and seasonal variations of all-sky and clear-sky surface solar radiation (SSR) in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau (TP) during the period 1960–2009 are investigated, based on surface observational data, reanalyses and ensemble simulations with the global climate model ECHAM5-HAM. The mean annual all-sky SSR series shows a decreasing trend with a rate of ?1.00 Wm^?2 decade^?1, which is mainly seen in autumn and secondly in summer and winter. A stronger decrease of ?2.80 Wm^?2 decade^?1 is found in the mean annual clear-sky SSR series, especially during winter and autumn. Overall, these results confirm a tendency towards a decrease of SSR in the TP during the last five decades. The comparisons with reanalysis show that both NCEP/NCAR and ERA-40 reanalyses do not capture the decadal variations of the all-sky and clear-sky SSR. This is probably due to a missing consideration of aerosols in the reanalysis assimilation model. The SSR simulated with the ECHAM5-HAM global climate model under both all-sky and clear-sky conditions reproduce the decrease seen in the surface observations, especially after 1980. The steadily increasing aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm over the TP in the ECHAM5-HAM results suggests transient aerosol emissions as a plausible cause.