Sea Storms in the Adriatic Sea and the Western Mediterranean during the Last Millennium

Data regarding the frequency andoccurrence of sea storms in the Adriatic Sea and theWestern Mediterranean during the last millennium havebeen extracted from historical written sources. TheAdriatic Sea shows two anomalous periods of high stormfrequency: the first half of the 1500s and the secondhalf of the 1700s. In the 1500s the storms were morefrequent in autumn, while in the late 1700s theyoccurred at high frequency in winter. In the WesternMediterranean, storms had a higher frequency in thefirst half of the 1600s, with two lesser periods ofhigh frequency in the 1400s and at the end of the1700s. Although both records show a maximum frequencyof sea storms during the Spörer Minimum(1416–1534) of solar activity, sunspot series yieldno, or poor, correlation during the other periods oflowest activity, i.e., Oort Minimum (1010–1090), WolfMinimum (1282–1342), and Maunder Minimum (1645–1715),suggesting that a teleconnection between sea stormsand sunspots is improbable or masked in this region.No teleconnection was found either between the ElNiño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and surgesflooding Venice or the Western Mediterranean storms orbetween Venice surges and the Northern AtlanticOscillation (NAO).     

The Late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) – A Key Period forStudying Decadal Scale Climatic Change in Europe

The Late Maunder Minimum (LMM, 1675–1715) denotes the climax of the `Little Ice Age' in Europe with marked climate variability. Investigations into interannual and interdecadal differences of atmospheric circulation between the LMM and the period 1961–1990 have been performedand undertaken based upon sea level pressure (SLP) difference maps, empiricalorthogonal function (EOF) analysis, and objective classification techniques. Since the SLP during the LMM winterwas significantly higher in northeastern Europe but below normal over the central and western Mediterranean, more frequent blocking situations were connected with cold air outbreaks towards central and eastern Europe. Springs were cold and characterized by a southward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks. Summers in western, central Europe and northern Europe were wetter and slightly cooler than they are today due to a weakerAzores high and a more southerly position of the mean polar front axes. Autumns showed a significantly higher pressure over northern Europe and a lower pressure over continental Europe and the Mediterranean, an indication of an advanced change from summer to winter circulation. It is suggested that the pressure patterns during parts of the LMM might be attributed to the combination of external forcing factors (solar irradiance and volcanic activity) and internal oscillations and couplings in the North Atlantic.     

Wintertime European circulation patterns during the Late Maunder Minimum cooling period (1675–1704)

Summary The North Atlantic and Western Europe regions comprise a key area to study climate variations in the form of cold relapses which may be a possible manifestation of reduced ocean circulation. By using multi-proxy data of the late Maunder Minimum period, temperature and precipitation distribution during winter was studied in connection with atmospheric circulation, with the goal of obtaining an insight into the feedbacks between ocean, sea ice and temperature. The study shows that the Late Maunder Minimum was a relatively cool and dry period with low ocean temperatures and a large sea ice extent, although Alpine glaciers did not grow during this time. A comparison of the winter weather types of the three decades from 1675 to 1704 with the recent 30 year period (1961–1990) shows that the late Maunder Minimum was characterized by strong sea level pressure reversals with high pressure centres over Northern or Northwestern Europe and large outbreaks of northeasterly cold continental air.With 3 Figures     

Pressure covariability over the Atlantic,Europe and N. Africa. application: Centers of action for temperature,winter precipitation and summer winds in Athens,Greece

Summary This paper deals with the surface pressure covariability over the Altantic/European sector of the Northern Hemisphere, using monthly grid point data for the 100 year period 1890–1989. Factor analysis is applied to 90 grid point time series for January, February, July, and August. The initial 90 pressure variables can be reduced to 7–8 factors in winter and 10 in summer. A winter teleconnection was identified, known as the seesaw phenomenon, between the Icelandic low and the Azores subtropical anticyclone. In order to define the centers of action for temperature, winter precipitation and summer northerly wind frequency (etesian days) in Athens and in the Aegean sea, the variability of the factor scores and of these weather elements is compared. It is shown that the center of action for temperature in Athens is found to be in north and northwest Europe (centered over southern Scandinavia). For winter precipitation, the center of action is located in the west and southwest Mediterranean and northwest Africa. Finally, for the etesian winds frequency variability, this center of action is found over the northern Adriatic and northern former Yugoslavia, while there is no evidence of influence by the southwest Asia thermal low.With 12 Figures     

Solar Forcing of Global Climate Change Since The Mid-17th Century

Spacecraft measurements of the sun's total irradiance since 1980 have revealed a long-term variation that is roughly in phase with the 11-year solar cycle. Its origin is uncertain, but may be related to the overall level of solar magnetic activity as well as to the concurrent activity on the visible disk. A low-pass Gaussian filtered time series of the annual sunspot number has been developed as a suitable proxy for solar magnetic activity that contains a long-term component related to the average level of activity as well as a short-term component related to the current phase of the 11-year cycle. This time series is also assumed to be a proxy for solar total irradiance, and the irradiance is reconstructed for the period since 1617 based on the estimate from climatic evidence that global temperatures during the Maunder Minimum of solar activity, which coincided with one of the coldest periods of the Little Ice Age, were about 1 °C colder than modern temperatures. This irradiance variation is used as the variable radiative forcing function in a one-dimensional ocean–climate model, leading to a reconstruction of global temperatures over the same period, and to a suggestion that solar forcing and anthropogenic greenhouse-gas forcing made roughly equal contributions to the rise in global temperature that took place between 1900 and 1955. The importance of solar variability as a factor in climate change over the last few decades may have been underestimated in recent studies.     

Simulation of Extreme Surges in the Taganrog Bay with Atmosphere and Ocean Circulation Models

The simulation the most extreme surges over the period of instrumental observations in the Taganrog Bay since 1881, the surges occurred on March 24, 2013 and September 24, 2014. The objective of the simulation is to study surge formation features and to reveal requirements for the accuracy of simulating atmospheric and oceanic circulation in the Sea of Azov. For this purpose, the Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model (INMOM) with the spatial resolution of ~4 km and ~250 m was used. The atmospheric forcing over the Black Sea region was specified using ERA-Interim reanalysis data and WRF model data with the spatial resolution of 80 and 10 km, respectively. It is shown that the quality of simulation of extreme surges in the Sea of Azov is more dependent on the quality of the input atmospheric forcing than on the spatial resolution of the ocean circulation model. The usage of WRF data as atmospheric forcing allows the more accurate simulation of extreme surges. However, the simulation of the extreme surge of 2014 overestimates, and simulations for the 2013 surge underestimate the surge level. Evidently, as the used version of INMOM does not take into account the coastal zone flooding, the maximum surge value is overestimated.     

Integrated Analysis of Physical and Biological Pan-Arctic Change

We investigate the recent large changes that have occurred in the Arctic over the period of 1965–1995 through examination of 86 regionally-dispersed time series representing seven data types: climate indices, atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial, sea ice, fisheries, and other biological data. To our knowledge, this is the first semi-quantitative analysis of Arctic data that spans multiple disciplines and geographic regions. Although visual inspection and Principal Component Analysis of the data collection indicate that Arctic change is complex, three patterns are evident. The temporal pattern of change calculated as the first Principal Component (PC1), representing 23% of the variance, has a single regime-like shift near 1989 based on a large number of time series, which include projections from a strong stratospheric vortex in spring, the Arctic Oscillation, sea ice declines in several regions, and changes in selected mammal, bird, and fish populations. The pattern based on the second Principal Component (PC2) shows interdecadal variability over the Arctic Ocean Basin north of 70° N; this variability is observed in surface wind fields, sea ice, and ocean circulation, with the most recent shift near 1989. Contributions to PC1 cover a larger geographic area than PC2, and are consistent with a recent amplification of the interdecadal mode due to polar processes such as increased incidence of cold stratospheric temperature anomalies or internal feedbacks. Most land processes – such as snowcover, greenness, Siberian runoff, permafrost temperatures – and certain subarctic sea ice records show a third pattern of a linear trend over the 30-year interval, which is qualitatively different than either PC1 or PC2. These variables are from lower latitudes and often integrate the atmospheric or oceanographic influence over several seasons including summer. That more than half of the data collection projects strongly onto one of the three patterns, suggests that the Arctic is responding as a coherent system over the previous three decades. However, no single index or class of observations exclusively tracks change in the Arctic, a conclusion that emerges from a multivariate analysis.     

Climatic oscillations during the Precambrian era

A remarkably regular cyclicity with a fundamental period of ~11–12 cycles is preserved in the 680 million year old Elatina formation of South Australia. All but one of the many periods present can be interpreted as resulting from the combined influences of the sunspot cycle and the lunar nodal tide - in particular, beating between these two cycles gives rise to a long period phase alternation. Available paleontological evidence is used to constrain the lunar distance 680 Ma ago, thereby constraining the length of the lunar nodal tide. We then infer from the beat period that the sunspot cycle was 10.8 ± 0.2 years, which is in agreement with independent astronomical evidence suggesting that the sunspot cycle would then have been some 3–10% shorter than it is at present. Although this interpretation is not consistent with the 12.0 year sunspot cycle counted by Williams and Sonett (1985), we demonstrate that unavoidable random errors made in discriminating unusually indistinct varves gives rise to a systematic overcount of varves of this magnitude. The clarity of this evidence for solar and lunar signals in the climate 680 Ma ago lends support to reports of their importance today.National Research Council Postoctoral Associate.     

A new method to estimate ice age temperatures

On glacial time scales, the waxing and waning of the Eurasian and North American ice sheets depend largely on variations in atmospheric temperature. As global sea level is primarily determined by the volume of these ice sheets, there is a direct (yet complex) relation between global sea level and the northern hemispheric (NH) temperature. This relation is essentially represented by a model of the NH ice sheets. We use a thermomechanical ice-sheet–ice shelf–bedrock model in conjunction with an inverse method to deduce a time series of NH temperature (from 120 kyr BP until present) that is consistent with the observed global sea level record. The advantage of this method is that it provides the annual mean surface air temperature averaged over the NH continents north of 40°N. The results reveal that ice age temperatures were 4–10°C lower than today, which agrees with other temperature reconstructions. However, reconstructed temperatures are comparitively low during the early stages of the glacial, a feature that is consistent with the rapid growth of the ice sheets. The sensitivity of the results for uncertainties in precipitation rate, in observed sea level and in some other model parameters is examined to quantify the error in reconstructed temperature. During the glacial period (120–15 kyr BP), surface air temperatures in the NH (north of 40°N) were 7.2±1.5°C lower than todays (interglacial) temperatures.     

Wavelet Analysis of Solar-ENSO Imprints in Tree Ring Data from Southern Brazil in the Last Century

In order to study the imprint of solar and ENSO signals on terrestrial archives, the wavelet spectrum analysis was applied to solar-geophysical indices and tree ring data. Time series of Sunspot Number (SSN), southern oscillation index (SOI) and tree-ring indices from Southern Brazil, for the period 1876–1991, were used in this work. The 11-year solar cycle was present during the whole period in tree ring data, being more intense during 1930–1980, in agreement with an earlier study that was performed for thesame region but a different time range (1836–1996). ENSO effects on treering data from Southern Brazil were studied by the first time in this work using wavelet analysis. Short-term variations, between 2–5 years, arealso present in tree ring data. This represents the signature of ENSO events and was also observed in the SOI, as expected. The cross-wavelet spectrum analysis shows that both solar and climatic factors are recorded in tree ring data.     

Homogenisation and trend detection analysis of broken series of solar UV-B data

Summary Statistical techniques have been developed to homogenise a broken series of clear-sky solar UV-B radiation, measured by a Robertson Berger (RB) meter over the period 1981–90 at Invercargill, New Zealand, and to analyse the series for long term trend. Statistical modelling of the quasi-linear UV-B/ozone relationship evident in the departures of daily clear-sky UV-B data and coincident satellite ozone data from their respective mean references has been used to provide a self-consistent de-seasonalised data set of UV-B and ozone departures, and to bridge a major gap in calibration that separates the data set into two periods, 1981–86 and 1988–90. The choice of UV-B reference is important to the quality of the results and particular attention was given to the methodology for defining it. Four alternative objective adjustment procedures for calibrating the 1988–90 period against the 1981–86 period were examined. Because our interest lies primarily in the higher values of summer, a UV-B-weighted procedure was chosen. The modelling and homogenisation techniques developed may have application in related analysis problems. Analysis of the data for the independent 1981–86 period showed large trends in ozone and UV-B, but this was mostly due to a period of very low ozone values during 1985. Over the whole period, 1981–90, the ozone trend was –4.7%/decade. The corresponding UV-B trend was +5.8%/decade, but this result is not independent of the corresponding ozone trend because the homogenisation procedure imposes the assumption of the derived UV-B/ozone relationship on the 1988–90 UV-B data. However, the evidence suggests there is little reason to doubt that solar UV-B radiation has increased at the site by about +6% per decade.With 10 Figures     

Pressure drag on the Dinaric Alps during the ALPEX SOP

Summary During the ALPEX SOP (March–April, 1982), microbarographic measurements were conducted on the Northern Adriatic as a part of research on the Bora. In this paper the measured pressure field around the Dinaric Alps is used to compute the total pressure drag vectors using Archimedes law.The 3-hourly temporal variations of these drag vectors is examined for different synoptic events. During the anticyclonic calm weather period at the end of March and beginning of April there is evidence of a divrnal drag variation. Regardless of magnitude, the pressure drag vectors seem to be aligned almost perpendicular to the main mountain ridge. During synoptic scale flow developments the drag direction change usually appears steady and slow (1–2 days). However during an exceptionally strong frontal passage (8/9 April) this time scale was much shorter (3–6 hours). The maximae of the pressure drag during SOP are always connected with Bora periods and the magnitudes of the drag values indicate that during these events there is a major sink of atmospheric momentum over the Dinaric Alpine region.With 11 Figures     

Rainfall over Friuli-Venezia Giulia: High amounts and strong geographical gradients

Summary The precipitation distribution over Friuli-Venezia Giulia — the easternmost region of Northern Italy extending from the Adriatic Sea to the Alps — has been studied. Monthly rainfall data over the region and the bordering areas of Veneto and Slovenia during the period from 1951 to 1986 have been analyzed by standard statistical methods, including cluster analysis. The overall results emphasize a distribution with rainfall increasing from the sea to the prealpine areas. The highest precipitations were recorded over the Musi-Canin range, with average values exceeding 3 200 mm per year. Noteworthy is the unforeseen subdivision of the region by the clustering procedure by means of the Angot index.With 12 Figures     

Cyclones and Northern Hemispheric temperature

Summary The relationships between cyclone characteristics and Northern Hemispheric (NH) temperature during the period 1958–1987 are examined by an empirical procedure. The results tend to indicate an increase in the frequency of cyclogenesis in the NW Pacific region but a decrease over the East Asia continent during the period of NH warming. The number of intense and explosive cyclones over northwestern Pacific and shows a similar behaviour. These different responses of cyclone activities may be due to the different trend of the north-south temperature contrast over land and sea in the warm period. On the other hand, the increase of cyclone activities over NW Pacific was also related to the ENSO events, while ENSO has a substantial contribution to the atmospheric warming.With 5 Figures     

The influence of volcanic, solar and CO2 forcing on the temperatures in the Dalton Minimum (1790–1830): a model study

The Dalton Minimum (1790–1830) was a period with reduced solar irradiance and strong volcanic eruptions. Additionally, the atmospheric CO₂ concentrations started to rise from the background level of previous centuries. In this period most empirical climate reconstructions indicate a minimum in global or hemispheric temperatures. Here, we analyse several simulations starting in 1755 with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHO-G driven by different forcing combinations to investigate which external forcing could have contributed most strongly to the reduced temperatures during the Dalton Minimum. Results indicate that on global and hemispheric scales, the volcanic forcing is largely responsible for the temperature drop in this period, especially during its second half, whereas changes in solar forcing and the increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations were of minor importance. At regional scales, especially the extratropical, the impact of volcanic forcing is much less discernible due to the large regional variability, a finding that agrees with empirical temperature reconstructions.     

Evaluation of turbulent fluxes over Maitri,Antarctica

Turbulent fluxes have been evaluated for clear sunny days over the Indian Antarctic station, Maitri, using the basic meteorological data recorded at four levels of a 28 m tower. The data are supplemented with radiation data. The surface layer over Maitri remains thermally stratified during the hours of minimum solar insolation, the so-called nighttime period. The surface winds during this period are generally very strong resulting in high momentum fluxes. In particular, for high winds (>12 m s^–1), the temperature gradient is found to be less positive than for moderate winds (4 to 7 m s^–1). Solar insolation provided the daytime heating necessary for the diurnal variation of atmospheric stability, and hence, for the turbulent fluxes. Thus, on clear days daytime conditions are marked by upward transport of heat with reduced momentum flux, while stable nighttime conditions are marked by a downward heat flux with increased momentum fluxes.     

A reappraisal of relationships between northern hemispheric surface air temperatures and Indian summer monsoon rainfall

Summary Zonally averaged surface air temperatures have been analysed to form time series of surface air temperature anomalies over the tropics (TTA), extratropics (ETA), the poles (PTA) and the whole northern hemisphere (NHTA) for the period 1901–1990. The temporal statistical relationships between these temperature time series and Indian monsoon rainfall over all India (AIR), northwest India (NWR) and peninsular India (PIR) have been examined for the above period.The northern hemispheric January–February (JF) temperature correlates significantly and positively with all the three monsoon rainfall series, the regional peninsular rainfall series (PIR) displaying the best correlation. The Strongest correlation is observed during 1951–1980 for both AIR and NWR but weakened in 1961–1990. For PIR, the highest correlation is observed during 1961–1990, remaining almost stable since 1951–1980. The JF series AIR monsoon relationship showed the highest correlation over the tropics during 1901–1940, over the polar region during 1941–1980 and over the northern hemisphere during 1951–1980. AIR and NWR moreover show a significant negative relationship with simultaneous, succeeding autumn and following year TTA series, while AIR and PIR monsoon rainfall series show significant positive association with the following year PTA series.The results also suggest that cooler January–February NHTA not only lead to a poor monsoon, but a poor monsoon also leads to warmer temperatures over the tropics and cooler temperatures over the polar region in the following year.With 1 Figure     

Southern Hemisphere blocking: A comparison between two indices

Summary Two different blocking indices are computed for the Southern Hemisphere for the period 1979–1985, one is based on sea level pressure and the other on upper tropospheric zonal wind. The Southern Hemisphere blocking climatology based on these two indices separately presents very similar results, mainly in identifying the region of maximum occurrence over eastern Australia and the western Pacific. The sea level presure index shows strong orographic influences, while the 250hPa zonal wind index is not affected by orography but does exaggerate seasonal variations. It is apparent that blocking occurrence in the eastern Australia and neighbouring areas has a link with climatological atmospheric features.With 8 Figures     

A fast moving easterly wave of the West Africa troposphere

Summary This paper documents a tropospheric synoptic-scale wavelike disturbance over Northern Africa and the tropical Atlantic during summer, in the 3.–5.day band period, different from the African wave. It has a velocity of 10–12 degree longitude per day instead of 6–8, a slighter shorter period, i.e. 3.5 instead of 4.5 days. It is best seen between 5°–7° N whilst the African wave has its largest amplitude about 12° N. The data used are NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and radiosonde data.With 10 Figures     

Modelling the dominant climate signals around southern Africa

In this study, statistical techniques are employed to decompose climate signals around southern Africa into the dominant temporal frequencies, with the aim of modelling and predicting area-averaged rainfall. In the rainfall time series over the period 1900–1999, the annual cycle accounts for 83% of variance. Residual spectral energy cascades from biennial (42%) to interannual (20%) to decadal bands (3%). Regional climate signals are revealed through a multi-taper singular value decomposition analysis of sea surface temperature and sea level pressure fields over the Atlantic and Indian Oceans, in conjunction with southern Africa rainfall. Rossby wave action in the South Indian Ocean dominates the biennial scale variability. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and related Indian Ocean dipole patterns are important for interannual variability. Significant sea temperature and pressure fluctuations occurring 6–12 months prior to rainfall contribute biennial and interannual indices to a multi-variate model that demonstrates useful predictive skill.