Characterization of Fault Zones

— There are currently three major competing views on the essential geometrical, mechanical, and mathematical nature of faults. The standard view is that faults are (possibly segmented and heterogeneous) Euclidean zones in a continuum solid. The continuum-Euclidean view is supported by seismic, gravity, and electromagnetic imaging studies; by successful modeling of observed seismic radiation, geodetic data, and changes in seismicity patterns; by detailed field studies of earthquake rupture zones and exhumed faults; and by recent high resolution hypocenter distributions along several faults. The second view focuses on granular aspects of fault structures and deformation fields. The granular view is supported by observations of rock particles in fault zone gouge; by studies of block rotations and the mosaic structure of the lithosphere (which includes the overall geometry of plate tectonics); by concentration of deformation signals along block boundaries; by correlation of seismicity patterns on scales several times larger than those compatible with a continuum framework; and by strongly heterogeneous wave propagation effects on the earth's surface. The third view is that faults are fractal objects with rough surfaces and branching geometry. The fractal view is supported by some statistical analysis of regional hypocenter locations; by long-range correlation of various measurements in geophysical boreholes; by the fact that observed power-law statistics of earthquakes are compatible with an underlying scale-invariant geometrical structure; by geometrical analysis of fault traces at the earth's surface; and by measurements of joint and fault surfaces topography.¶There are several overlaps between expected phenomenology in continuum-Euclidean, granular, and fractal frameworks of crustal deformation. As examples, highly heterogeneous seismic wavefields can be generated by granular media, by fractal structures, and by ground motion amplification around and scattering from an ensemble of Euclidean fault zones. A hierarchical granular structure may have fractal geometry. Power-law statistics of earthquakes can be generated by slip on one or more heterogeneous planar faults, by a fractal collection of faults, and by deformation of granular material. Each of the three frameworks can produce complex spatio-temporal patterns of earthquakes and faults. At present the existing data cannot distinguish unequivocally between the three different views on the nature of fault zones or determine their scale of relevance. However, in each observational category, the highest resolution results associated with mature large-displacement faults are compatible with the standard continuum-Euclidean framework. This can be explained by a positive feedback mechanism associated with strain weakening rheology and localization, which attracts the long-term evolution of faults toward progressive regularization and Euclidean geometry. A negative feedback mechanism associated with strain hardening during initial deformation phases and around persisting geometrical irregularities and conjugate sets of faults generates new fractures and granularity at different scales. We conclude that long-term deformation in the crust, including many aspects of the observed spatio-temporal complexity of earthquakes and faults, may be explained to first order within the continuum-Euclidean framework.     

Influence of regional background stress fields on the spontaneous rupture of the major faults around Xiluodu dam,China

Simulations of the spontaneous rupture of potential earthquakes in the vicinity of reservoir dams can provide accurate parameters for seismic resilience assessment, which is essential for improving the seismic performance of reservoir dams. In simulations of potential spontaneous ruptures, fault geometry, regional stress fields, constitutive parameters of the fault friction law, and many other factors control the slip rate, morphology, and dislocation of the rupture, thereby affecting the simulated ground motion parameters. The focus of this study was to elucidate the effects of the background stress field on the nucleation and propagation of spontaneous ruptures based on the factors influencing potential M > 7 earthquake events on the Leibo Middle Fault (LBMF) and the Mabian-Yanjing Fault (MB-YJF) in the Xiluodu dam (XLD) region. Our simulation results show that the magnitude of the regional background stress field plays a decisive role in whether a destructive earthquake exceeding the critical magnitude will occur. We found that the direction and magnitude of the regional stress significantly affect the range of rupture propagation on the fault plane, and fault geometry affects the spatial distribution of the rupture range. Under the same regional stress field magnitude and orientation, a more destructive, high-magnitude earthquake is more likely to occur on the LBMF than on the MB-YJF.     

Quaternary intraplate deformation in the southeastern Sierras Pampeanas, Argentina

Neogene strain from the subducting Nazca plate is widely distributed in theAndean foreland as a result of flat-lying subduction beneath central westernArgentina (28^°–33^°S latitude). This fact is indicated byuplifted basement blocks bounded by reverse faults as far as 600 kms eastof the Chilean trench axis. Some deformation in the southern Sierras deCórdoba (southeastern Sierras Pampeanas) indicates significantdisplacements during Quaternary and even late Holocene time. Thisregion has low to moderate seismicity characterized by earthquakemagnitudes 6.7 with no associated noticeable surface ruptures.This paper presents information recently gathered on the most conspicuousregional structures of the area (El Molino, Sierra Chica and Las Lagunasfaults). The last movement along the El Molino fault thrust basement rocksover organic-rich (0.8–1.3 ka) sediment and fault relationships suggestprevious Quaternary displacements. Along the Sierra Chica fault,Precambrian basement has been thrust a minimum of 13.5 m overPleistocene conglomerates, and faulting also affects latePleistocene-Holocene fluvial sediments. The Las Lagunas fault has beenregarded as the source of the 1934 Ms 5.5 and 6.0 earthquakes, whichheavily damaged the nearby village of Sampacho. The faulted surface isburied under Holocene loess, but its trace is expressed as a 24-km-longrectilinear scarp, despite continuous modification due to land use.Although we lack detailed information on probable rupture lengths duringlarge Sierras Pampeanas thrust earthquakes, some preliminary considerationsare made for the regional seismic hazard of these structures. The geologicevidence described here identifies these faults as possible sources of strongearthquakes in the future.     

Imaging the rupture process of the 10 January 2018 MW7.5 Swan island,Honduras earthquake*

The 10 January 2018 M_W7.5 Swan island, Honduras earthquake occurred on the Swan island fault, which is a transform plate boundary between the North American and Caribbean plates. Here we back-project the rupture process of the earthquake using dense seismic stations in Alaska, and find that the earthquake ruptured at least three faults (three stages) for a duration of ~40 s. The rupture speed for the longest fault (stage 3) is as fast as 5 km/s, which is much faster than the local shear wave velocity of ~4 km/s. Supershear rupture was incidentally observed on long and straight strike-slip faults. This study shows a supershear rupture that occured on a strike-slip fault with moderate length, implying that supershear rupture might commonly occur on large strike-slip earthquakes. The common occurrence of supershear rupture on strike-slip earthquakes will challenge present understanding of crack physics, as well as strong ground motion evaluation in earthquake engineering.     

Joint inversion of GNSS and teleseismic data for the rupture process of the 2017 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>w</Subscript>6.5 Jiuzhaigou,China, earthquake

The spatio-temporal slip distribution of the earthquake that occurred on 8 August 2017 in Jiuzhaigou, China, was estimated from the teleseismic body wave and near-field Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data (coseismic displacements and high-rate GPS data) based on a finite fault model. Compared with the inversion results from the teleseismic body waves, the near-field GNSS data can better restrain the rupture area, the maximum slip, the source time function, and the surface rupture. The results show that the maximum slip of the earthquake approaches 1.4 m, the scalar seismic moment is ~ 8.0 × 10¹⁸ N·m (M_w?≈?6.5), and the centroid depth is ~ 15 km. The slip is mainly driven by the left-lateral strike-slip and it is initially inferred that the seismogenic fault occurs in the south branch of the Tazang fault or an undetectable fault, a NW-trending left-lateral strike-slip fault, and belongs to one of the tail structures at the easternmost end of the eastern Kunlun fault zone. The earthquake rupture is mainly concentrated at depths of 5–15 km, which results in the complete rupture of the seismic gap left by the previous four earthquakes with magnitudes >?6.0 in 1973 and 1976. Therefore, the possibility of a strong aftershock on the Huya fault is low. The source duration is ~ 30 s and there are two major ruptures. The main rupture occurs in the first 10 s, 4 s after the earthquake; the second rupture peak arrives in ~ 17 s. In addition, the Coulomb stress study shows that the epicenter of the earthquake is located in the area where the static Coulomb stress change increased because of the 12 May 2017 M_w7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake. Therefore, the Wenchuan earthquake promoted the occurrence of the 8 August 2017 Jiuzhaigou earthquake.     

近地表倾角和无地表破裂前期逆冲地震对汶川MS8.0地震逆冲滑动量随深度分布形态的影响

逆冲滑动是汶川地震的初始和主要震源过程,其破裂滑动量随断层深度的分布形态与多数板内逆冲强震不一致.本文用摩压比值来表征断层沿线的局部破裂危险程度,通过数值实验讨论了底部破裂源、近地表倾角和无地表破裂的前期地震等对铲形逆冲断层的破裂危险分布和破裂滑动分布的影响.有限元数值模拟结果显示,在巴颜喀拉块体对龙门山断裂带的高强度挤压下,上陡下缓近地表陡倾角的铲形断层形态使得汶川发震断层近地表对逆冲破裂和滑动有一定的阻碍作用;破裂滑动量集中于发震断层中部的前期逆冲地震是造成汶川M_S8.0地震逆冲滑动分布异于板内逆冲强震滑动分布现象的一个可行解释.     

Large earthquake doublets and fault plane heterogeneity in the northern Solomon Islands subduction zone

In the Solomon Islands and New Britain subduction zones, the largest earthquakes commonly occur as pairs with small separation in time, space and magnitude. This doublet behavior has been attributed to a pattern of fault plane heterogeneity consisting of closely spaced asperities such that the failure of one asperity triggers slip in adjacent asperities. We analyzed body waves of the January 31, 1974,M _w =7.3, February 1, 1974,M _w =7.4, July 20, 1975 (1437)M _w =7.6 and July 20, 1975 (1945),M _w =7.3 doublet events using an iterative, multiple station inversion technique to determine the spatio-temporal distribution of seismic moment release associated with these events. Although the 1974 doublet has smaller body wave moments than the 1975 events, their source histories are more complicated, lasting over 40 seconds and consisting of several subevents located near the epicentral regions. The second 1975 event is well modeled by a simple point source initiating at a depth of 15 km and rupturing an approximate 20 km region about the epicenter. The source history of the first 1975 event reveals a westerly propagating rupture, extending about 50 km from its hypocenter at a depth of 25 km. The asperities of the 1975 events are of comparable size and do not overlap one another, consistent with the asperity triggering hypothesis. The relatively large source areas and small seismic moments of the 1974 doublet events indicate failure of weaker portions of the fault plane in their epicentral regions. Variations in the roughness of the bathymetry of the subducting plate, accompanying subduction of the Woodlark Rise, may be responsible for changes in the mechanical properties of the plate interface.To understand how variations in fault plane coupling and strength affect the interplate seismicity pattern, we relocated 85 underthrusting earthquakes in the northern Solomon Islands Are since 1964. Relatively few smaller magnitude underthrusting events overlap the Solomon Islands doublet asperity regions, where fault coupling and strength are inferred to be the greatest. However, these asperity regions have been the sites of several previous earthquakes withM _s 7.0. The source regions of the 1974 doublet events, which we infer to be mechanically weak, contain many smaller magnitude events but have not generated any otherM _s 7.0 earthquakes in the historic past. The central portion of the northern Solomon Islands Arc between the two largest doublet events in 1971 (studied in detail bySchwartz et al., 1989a) and 1975 contains the greatest number of smaller magnitude underthrusting earthquakes. The location of this small region sandwiched between two strongly coupled portions of the plate interface suggest that it may be the site of the next large northern Solomon Islands earthquake. However, this region has experienced no known earthquakes withM _s 7.0 and may represent a relatively aseismic portion of the subduction zone.     

SIMULATION OF SEISMIC RISK IN THE DALIANGSHAN SUB-BLOCK AND ADJACENT AREAS USING THE NONLINEAR FRICTION FEM METHOD

Most earthquakes result from fault activity under heterogeneous loading and complex physical properties, also affected by fault structure and interaction between faults. Such a complicated mechanism makes often failures of the "seismic gap" theory in the effort of medium-and long-term earthquake prediction. This study attempts to address this issue using the finite element method(FEM).The friction behavior of faults can be used to simulate the non-uniformity of rupture processes of the seismogenic structure. So we use the FEM containing non-linear friction to simulate fault ruptures in the Daliangshan sub-block and adjacent areas, and compare the results with time-space evolution of historical M_S ≥ 7 earthquakes since 1840 in this region. In the simulation, the sequence of large-batch fault contact nodes change from "stick state" to "slip state" in short time, which mimics the sudden fault slip and the occurrence of major earthquakes. The results show that the fault breaking lengths from simulation are largely consistent with the magnitudes of historical earthquakes in the study area, such as the 1850 Puge-Xichang M_S7.5, and 1887 Shiping M_S7.0 earthquakes. The simulation also shows the development of seismic gaps and "gap breaks" by major earthquakes on the Xianshuihe fault, such as 1955 Kangding M_S7.5 earthquake. Especially, the results illustrated the very long time of the seismogenic process of the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake, and the corresponding sudden big rupture along the Longmenshan Fault, which is very similar to the observed surface rupture and very long incubation time and sudden co-seismic process. Then, this simulation is further applied to long-term earthquake prediction for the study area by calculation on a much longer time. The simulation results suggest that the Xiaojiang fault and the Zemuhe fault have relatively higher seismic risk, while moderate-sized earthquakes might occur on the Daliangshan fault and the Aninghe fault, and major earthquakes might rupture the northern segment of the Xianshuihe fault in a much longer time.     

鲜水河断裂带北西段不同破裂源强震震级（M≥67）及复发间隔研究

鲜水河断裂带是四川西部一条晚第四纪强烈左旋走滑活动的构造带，历史上发生多次强震. 它与西北侧的甘孜—玉树断裂带一起，构成青藏高原东部的侧向滑移构造系统中的川滇活动地块的北边界——羌塘地块的东北边界. 鲜水河断裂带北西段可以分成4个段落，每一段落均可作为一个独立的基本破裂单元而发生地震破裂，亦有可能发生不同尺度的多段联合瞧裂. 对鲜水河断裂带北西段不同尺度破裂的震级及复发间隔进行研究. 根据该地区的地质、地球物理、测量及地震等方面的资料，结合我国强震复发的特点，分析了拉分盆地内部的滑动速率分布，以确定各段落的等效长度和倾向宽度，从而建立适合我国大陆走滑断裂的面波震级与断裂发震面积的关系式；进而运用地震矩方法，考虑断层之间的相互作用，结合专家意见建立了该段的矩平衡断裂破裂模型；最后，给出了鲜水河断裂带北西段各破裂源特征化地震的复发间隔、震级大小和不确定性，以及他与中小地震的联合震级分布. 结果表明，鲜水河断裂带北西段较易发生单段破裂，复发间隔在100～150年左右.     

Geological Observations of Damage Asymmetry in the Structure of the San Jacinto, San Andreas and Punchbowl Faults in Southern California: A Possible Indicator for Preferred Rupture Propagation Direction

We present new in situ observations of systematic asymmetry in the pattern of damage expressed by fault zone rocks along sections of the San Andreas, San Jacinto, and Punchbowl faults in southern California. The observed structural asymmetry has consistent manifestations at a fault core scale of millimeters to meters, a fault zone scale of meters to tens of meters and related geomorphologic features. The observed asymmetric signals are in agreement with other geological and geophysical observations of structural asymmetry in a damage zone scale of tens to hundreds of meters. In all of those scales, more damage is found on the side of the fault with faster seismic velocities at seismogenic depths. The observed correlation between the damage asymmetry and local seismic velocity structure is compatible with theoretical predictions associated with preferred propagation direction of earthquake ruptures along faults that separate different crustal blocks. The data are consistent with a preferred northwestward propagation direction for ruptures on all three faults. If our results are supported by additional observations, asymmetry of structural properties determined in field studies can be utilized to infer preferred propagation direction of large earthquake ruptures along a given fault section. The property of a preferred rupture direction can explain anomalous behavior of historic rupture events, and may have profound implications for many aspects of earthquake physics on large faults.     

Nonuniform friction as a physical basis for earthquake mechanics

A review of simple models and observations suggests that the main first-order features of active faulting-mechanical instability, the frequency-magnitude relations, seismic and aseismie slip, seismic radiation, incoherency and rupture stoppage — may be explained by a single characteristic of crustal faults: the spatial variation of the effective frictional stress, which resists slippage on faults. Faultoffset data suggest that rupture propagation ceases in regions of high resistance which act, as barriers. In these regions slippage is associated with negative stress drop. The spacing and the amplitudeA() of the barriers, as inferred from the frequency-magnitude and moment relation for earthquakes, obeys a simple statistical relationA()^p. On the scale of particle motion, this variability of frictional stress provides a mechanical instability which may be associated with the concept of dynamic friction. Invariably, the rapid particle motion in the model is always preceded by accelerated creep. The particle acceleration is highly irregular, giving rise to an almost random acceleration record on the fault. The particle displacement is relatively smooth, giving rise to simple displacement time function in the far field. Rupture propagation time is approximately proportional to the gradient of frictional stress along the fault. Consequently sharp changes of this stress may cause multiple events and other long period irregularities in the fault motion.The power density spectrum associated with the frictional stress implies that stress may be related to a Poisson distribution of lengths. The autocorrelation of such type of distribution yields a correlation lengthk _L ^–1 , similar perhaps toHaskell's (1964) andAki's (1967) correlation lengths inferred from spectral analysis of seismic waves. The partial incoherency of faulting implies that preseismic deformation may be significantly incoherent, consequently the prediction of small moderate earthquakes may be subject to inherent uncertainties. We conclude that frictional stress heterogeneities may be necessary and sufficient to explain active faulting associated with small and moderate earthquakes.     

Average slip-rate and recent large earthquake ruptures along the Garzê-Yushu fault

Our field investigation obtains new evidence of the later Quaternary activity and recent large earthquake ruptures of the Garzê-Yushu fault. The average left-lateral slip-rate along the fault is determined to be (12±2) mm/a for the last 50000 years from both offset landforms and ages of the correlative sediments. This result is very close to the estimated average left-lateral slip-rate for the Xianshuihe fault, suggesting that the horizontal movement along the northern boundary of the Sichuan-Yunnan active tectonic block and the northeastern boundary of the Qiangtang active tectonic block has been basically harmonious during the later Quaternary period. Remains of ground ruptures of recent large earthquakes have been discovered along all 3 segments of the fault, of which, the 1896 rupture on the northwestern segment is at least 70 km long, and its corresponding earthquake could be of moment magnitude 7.3. The latest rupture on the middle segment of the fault has a length of about 180 km, and was produced by an unknown-age large earthquake that could have a moment magnitude of about 7.7. Along the southeastern segment of the fault, the latest unknown-age rupture is about 65 km long and has a maximum left-lateral coseismic displacement of 5.3 m, and its corresponding earthquake is estimated to be as large as about 7.3 of moment magnitude. Based on relevant investigation, an inference has been drawn that the later two large earthquakes probably occurred in 1854 and 1866, respectively. These demonstrate that the individual segments of the studied Garzê-Yushu fault are all able to produce large earthquakes.

     

Crustal Heterogeneity in the Source Region of the 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture Earthquake: Inversion Analysis of Coda Envelopes

The 2004 Mid Niigata Prefecture earthquake (M_JMA 6.8) and its aftershock sequences generated complicated, i.e., several conjugate fault planes in their source region. In order to understand the generating process of these earthquakes, we estimated a 3-D distribution of relative scattering coefficients in the source region. The large slip area during the main shock rupture seems to be bounded by strong heterogeneous zones with larger scattering coefficients. Hypocenters of the main shock and major large aftershocks with M 5-6 classes tend to be located close to stronger scattering areas. We found that one of these strong heterogeneities already existed before the occurrence of the M 5.9 aftershock on November 8. We suppose that heterogeneous structures in the source region of this earthquake sequence affected the initiation and growth of ruptures of the main shock and major large aftershocks.     

Source characteristics of the deep Philippine earthquake cluster, 23 and 24 July 2010

We determine the rupture velocity, rupture area, stress drop and duration of four strong deep-focus earthquakes in the Philippines by back-projecting the teleseismic P waves. Four deep-focus earthquakes occurred in a totally consumed Molucca microplate; their focal depths were greater than 550 km and their moment magnitudes were between M _w 6.6 and M _w 7.6. By studying this deep-focus cluster, we are able to estimate the rupture velocity, rupture area and stress drop which would assist in constraining the physical mechanism for earthquakes deeper than 500 km. Since the Molucca microplate is totally consumed, little evidence is left on the surface for us to do research. This deep-focus cluster provides us the opportunity to reveal the properties of this totally consumed microplate by using seismic method for the first time. Four earthquakes in this deep-focus cluster all have multiple rupture subevents. The M _w 7.3 event ruptures in two subevents, the M _w 7.6 and M _w 7.4 events both have three subevents. The M _w 6.6 event has single peak on the amplitude as a function of time; however, its energy releases at two spatially separated areas. Our results show that this deep-focus cluster has a slow rupture velocity which is about 0.27 to 0.43 of the shear wave velocity, long-scaled duration, concentrated energy release area, and high stress drop. These source properties are similar to those of other deep earthquakes occurring in warm slabs and indicate that the totally consumed Molucca microplate possibly is a warm plate.     

板内逆断层地震破裂的基本特征及分段标志研究

通过对１６ 个板内逆断层地震的基本类型、构造环境、地震地表破裂尺度、几何形态、运动学特征及余震分布图像的研究分析,较系统地归纳了板内逆断层地震破裂的基本特征及分段标志．研究表明：（１） 逆断层破裂往往沿走向延伸较短,常表现为二维面状分布形态;（２） 地震断层未出露地表或仅有部分出露地表;（３） 逆断层地震破裂较走滑断层和正断层产生的地震破裂更为复杂,不仅表现在构成整体破裂带的各个单条破裂的力学性质差异方面,而且表现在几何结构方面．     

Large earthquakes in the macquarie ridge complex: Transitional tectonics and subduction initiation

While most aspects of subduction have been extensively studied, the process of subduction initiation lacks an observational foundation. The Macquarie Ridge complex (MRC) forms the Pacific-Australia plate boundary between New Zealand to the north and the Pacific-Australia-Antarctica triple junction to the south. The MRC consists of alternating troughs and rises and is characterized by a transitional tectonic environment in which subduction initiation presently occurs. There is a high seismicity level with 15 large earthquakes (M>7) in this century. Our seismological investigation is centered on the largest event since 1943: the 25 MAY 1981 earthquake. Love, Rayleigh, andP waves are inverted to find: a faulting geometry of right-lateral strike-slip along the local trend of the Macquarie Ridge (N30°E); a seismic moment of 5×10²⁷ dyn cm (M _w=7.7) a double event rupture process with a fault length of less than 100km to the southwest of the epicenter and a fault depth of less than 20km. Three smaller thrust earthquakes occurred previous to the 1981 event along the 1981 rupture zone; their shallow-dipping thrust planes are virtually adjacent to the 1981 vertical fault plane. Oblique convergence in this region is thus accommodated by a dual rupture mode of several small thrust events and a large strike-slip event. Our study of other large MRC earthquakes, plus those of other investigators, produces focal mechanisms for 15 earthquakes distributed along the entire MRC; thrust and right-lateral strike-slip events are scattered throughout the MRC. Thus, all of the MRC is characterized by oblique convergence and the dual rupture mode. The true best-fit rotation pole for the Pacific-Australia motion is close to the Minster & Jordan RM2 pole for the Pacific-India motion. Southward migration of the rotation pole has caused the recent transition to oblique convergence in the northern MRC. We propose a subduction initiation process that is akin to crack propagation; the 1981 earthquake rupture area is identified as the crack-tip region that separates a disconnected mosaic of small thrust faults to the south from a horizontally continuous thrust interface to the north along the Puysegur trench. A different mechanism of subduction initiation occurs in the southernmost Hjort trench region at the triple junction. newly created oceanic lithosphere has been subducted just to the north of the triple junction. The entire MRC is a soft plate boundary that must accommodate the plate motion mismatch between two major spreading centers (Antarctica-Australia and Pacific-Antarctica). The persistence of spreading motion at the two major spreading centers and the consequent evolution of the three-plate system cause the present-day oblique convergence and subduction initiation in the Macquarie Ridge complex.     

Quantitative estimates of interplate coupling inferred from outer rise earthquakes

Interplate coupling plays an important role in the seismogenesis of great interplate earthquakes at subduction zones. The spatial and temporal variations of such coupling control the patterns of subduction zone seismicity. We calculate stresses in the outer rise based on a model of oceanic plate bending and coupling at the interplate contact, to quantitatively estimate the degree of interplate coupling for the Tonga, New Hebrides, Kurile, Kamchatka, and Marianas subduction zones. Depths and focal mechanisms of outer rise earthquakes are used to constrain the stress models. We perform waveform modeling of body waves from the GDSN network to obtain reliable focal depth estimates for 24 outer rise earthquakes. A propagator matrix technique is used to calculate outer rise stresses in a bending 2-D elastic plate floating on a weak mantle. The modeling of normal and tangential loads simulates the total vertical and shear forces acting on the subducting plate. We estimate the interplate coupling by searching for an optimal tangential load at the plate interface that causes the corresponding stress regime within the plate to best fit the earthquake mechanisms in depth and location.We find the estimated mean tangential load over 125–200 km width ranging between 166 and 671 bars for Tonga, the New Hebrides, the Kuriles, and Kamchatka. This magnitude of the coupling stress is generally compatible with the predicted shear stress at the plate contact from thermal-mechanical plate models byMolnar andEngland (1990), andVan den Buekel andWortel (1988). The estimated tectonic coupling,F _tc , is on the order of 10¹²–10¹³ N/m for all the subduction zones.F _tc for Tonga and New Hebrides is about twice as high as in the Kurile and Kamchatka arcs. The corresponding earthquake coupling forceF _ec appears to be 1–10% of the tectonic coupling from our estimates. There seems to be no definitive correlation of the degree of seismic coupling with the estimated tectonic coupling. We find that outer rise earthquakes in the Marianas can be modeled using zero tangential load.     

Spatio-temporal characteristics of aftershocks and seismogenic structure of the 2011 MW9.0 Tohoku earthquake,Japan

The Tohoku megathrust earthquake, which occurred on March 11, 2011 and had an epicenter that was 70 km east of Tohoku, Japan, resulted in an estimated ten's of billions of dollars in damage and a death toll of more than 15 thousand lives, yet few studies have documented key spatio-temporal seismogenic characteristics. Specifically, the temporal decay of aftershock activity, the number of strong aftershocks (with magnitudes greater than or equal to 7.0), the magnitude of the greatest aftershock, and area of possible aftershocks. Forecasted results from this study are based on Gutenberg-Richter's relation, Bath's law, Omori's law, and Well's relation of rupture scale utilizing the magnitude and statistical parameters of earthquakes in USA and China (Landers, Northridge, Hector Mine, San Simeon and Wenchuan earthquakes). The number of strong aftershocks, the parameters of Gutenberg-Richter's relation, and the modified form of Omori's law are confirmed based on the aftershock sequence data from the M_W9.0 Tohoku earthquake. Moreover, for a large earthquake, the seismogenic structure could be a fault, a fault system, or an intersection of several faults. The seismogenic structure of the earthquake suggests that the event occurred on a thrust fault near the Japan trench within the overriding plate that subsequently triggered three or more active faults producing large aftershocks.     

云南活动性断裂带的结构变异与孕震体构造的空间关系

中国的强震主要发生在一些板内大型走滑断裂带上,地震的破裂基本上是以走滑型破裂为特征。在这些活动性的走滑断裂带上形成的孕震体构造与该走滑断裂结构在空间的变化有关,并且表现出几种主要的变异形式。结合西南地区地震构造的实例,本文剖析了这几种结构变异形式,阐明了孕震体构造存在的空间机制。本文从地震与构造丛集相关及其所具有的分维特征入手,展开了对孕震区断裂结构变异特征的识别和孕震体空间机制的探讨,表述了一条活动性大断裂必须由若干次级断裂和无数中小断裂的空间组合,才能形成孕震体的必要条件。     

Stress transfer and nonlinear stress accumulation at subduction-type plate boundaries — Application to the Aleutians

A study of stress accumulation in seismic gaps and of stress transfer along linear plate boundaries is presented. Time-dependent reloading of plate boundaries following seismic ruptures is modeled by a modified Elsasser model of a coupled lithosphere/asthenosphere plate system. This model is applied to study a series of large earthquakes in the Aleutian Islands and the Alaska peninsula in 1938–1965. It is found that the Rat Island earthquake and the 1948 earthquake in the central Aleutians are likely to have been triggered by adjacent ruptures, in the sense that their occurrence would have come at a later time had their neighboring segments not been ruptured. Stresses in the Unalaska Gap and the Shumagin gap are at a relatively high level and these segments of the plate boundary may be expected to rupture in the near future. In general, in the ten years (about 16% of the earthquake cycle for the Aleutians) following an earthquake, the stress recovery in the rupture zone is highly nonlinear, resulting in a much more rapid stress accumulation than the linear case. Even at a later stage of an earthquake cycle, adjacent ruptures can cause an acceleration of loading rate in addition to the coseismic stress jump. A good example is the influence of the 1964 Alaska earthquake on the 1938 rupture zone. A general conclusion of this work is that long term earthquake prediction models must take into account the nonlinear stress accumulation behavior in seismic gaps. Also, we have shown the interaction of adjacent plate boundary segments, which suggests that some large earthquakes may have been triggered by nearby ruptures.