广西太阳总辐射的计算及分布特征

利用桂林、南宁、贵阳、海口1961～2000年逐旬太阳总辐射和日照百分率资料，建立精度较高的回归方程，推算出广西各地逐旬太阳总辐射，并分析了广西四季及年太阳总辐射的空间分布特征，对研究广西太阳总辐射及其对广西气候的影响有指导意义。     

基于小波神经网络法的海南地区逐时太阳总辐射预测研究

利用2003—2012年海口市气象站不同季节逐时太阳总辐射观测资料与对应气象参数,建立基于小波BP神经网络法逐时太阳总辐射的预测模型,并利用2013年太阳总辐射数据对模型进行检验,且与建立的逐步回归模型进行对比。结果表明:小波神经网络法建立的逐时太阳总辐射预测模型精度较高,但不同季节模型预测精度存在差异,冬季预测精度最高,夏季预测精度最差,天气类型指数有利于不同季节模型预测精度的提高。春季、夏季、秋季和冬季加入天气类型指数神经网络模型的逐时太阳总辐射预测值与观测值的回归估计标准误差分别为0.32、0.47、0.35 MJ·m-2及0.23 MJ·m-2,比逐步回归模型的预报精度分别提高了28.8%、16.3%、17.9%和20.4%,说明基于小波神经网络法建立的预测模型可为海南地区逐时太阳总辐射预测提供参考。     

旬太阳总辐射气候学计算方法

太阳总辐射是地球表面最重要的能量来源,它是气候形成的主要因子。许多作者对我国的总辐射进行过研究,但是限于当时日射记录较短,其精度受到一定影响,同时又多是以年、季、月总辐射进行计算,难以满足服务需要。在农业科学实验中,要讨论农作物主要生长发育期的光能利用,在工业产品的光化试验中,需要旬(甚至日)辐射资料。为此,本文尝试作旬辐射气候学计算方法的讨论。     

复杂地形下太阳总辐射空间订正方法——以四川省为例

利用四川省158个气象站2016—2019年逐小时2 m气温、相对湿度、地面气压、能见度等观测数据,通过SMARTS模式计算并积分得到逐月晴天太阳总辐射,建立晴天太阳总辐射随海拔高度的变化关系,将该关系应用到1990—2019年太阳总辐射空间插值订正中,并对订正效果进行验证,结果表明:晴天太阳总辐射随海拔高度呈对数增加,海拔越高晴天太阳总辐射随高度增幅越小;辐射订正方面,海拔较低、地势平坦的四川盆地地区订正幅度最小,高海拔的川西高原订正幅度居中,高低海拔过渡地带订正幅度最大;交叉验证结果表明,用来验证的7个辐射站年平均绝对误差由182.77 kW·h·m~(-2)减少到145.48 kW·h·m~(-2),相对误差由13.41%减少到10.24%,冬半年订正效果好于夏半年。通过订正可有效提高复杂地形下太阳总辐射插值效果,减小插值误差。     

基于WRF模式输出统计的逐时太阳总辐射预报初探

基于WRF(weather research and forecasting model)模式逐时输出结果,设计了逐时太阳总辐射的模式输出统计(model output statistics,MOS)预报流程。主要包括:对逐时观测序列进行低通滤波再除以天文辐射,对模式输出因子的筛选和降维,以及建立MOS预报方程,并对2009年1月、4月、8月和10月武汉站逐时太阳总辐射进行预报试验。结果表明,该方案在各月预报相对稳定,拟合和预报效果均较为理想,可使平均绝对百分比误差控制在20%～30%,相对均方根误差控制在30%～40%,相对模式直接预报辐射改进了50%左右。由此可见,通过对模式输出进行解释应用,可以有效提高辐射预报的准确率。此外,客观分析所得的气温、云量、露点、比湿、相对湿度、地面气压等13个模式输出因子可以作为各地区建立MOS辐射预报方程的参考因子。     

GMS卫星资料估算地表旬太阳辐射

GMS－5静止气象卫星较宽的可见光波段，为估算到达地表的太阳辐射提供了极好的信息源。利用GMS－5可见光通道资料，分析估计太阳辐射的可行性，并给出了相应的卫星资料处理方法。利用逐时观测资料和济南日射观测站太阳总辐射小时辐照总量实测资料，建立了可见光反照率与小时辐照总量的统计关系，探讨了旬太阳辐射的估算模型。估算结果与日射站实测结果比较，旬辐射估计量的均方误差为7．7MJ.m^-1，平均相对误差为3．4％。     

广西地面太阳辐射分布特征以及对人体健康的影响

选用2001-2010年广西桂林、南宁、北海3个地面太阳辐射站的总辐射资料及日照时数资料,分析了总辐射日总量、日最大值的年变化规律,时总量的日变化规律,日最大值出现时间频率的分布区间等,结果表明：（1）广西太阳总辐射的日总量、日最大值强度的年变化规律明显。总体呈现夏季最大,春秋季次之,冬季最小的特点。大多数情况下,随着纬度由北向南递减,总辐射值递增。日总量与日照时数的年变化趋势存在正向的线性相关。（2）广西太阳总辐射的时总量的日变化规律明显。总体呈现中午前后强．早晚弱的特点。最大值一般出现在一天中的10-14时这个区间．     

最大可能蒸发量的计算分析

本文通过对彭门(Penman)原式的“干燥力”计算式是—Ea、几种主要的Ea修正式以及旬太阳总辐射气候学计算方法的研究,进行了旬最大可能蒸发量的计算,得到了较好的结果。     

广西旬太阳直接辐射和旬散射辐射的气候学计算方法及收入概况

本文根据广西南宁、桂林二个日射观测点的资料(1958—1977),运用气候学统计方法,确定了广西地区旬直接辐射和旬散射辐射的气候学计算方法及其适用范围和工作精度。 依此,计算了全区48个站的旬、月、季、年的直接辐射和散射辐射量,并且初步分析了它们的收入概况。     

辽宁省追踪式与最佳倾角斜面总辐射的推算与分析

利用辽宁省1993—2016年61个气象站的日照百分率逐月数据、6个太阳辐射观测气象站的逐时太阳总辐射数据,采用太阳辐射的气候学计算方法、Klein各向异性散射模型和Hay各向异性散射模型分别推算各站水平面、最佳倾角斜面和追踪式斜面的太阳总辐射的推算值并进行了对比与分析。同时利用1993—2016年日平均总云量数据,得到各站的累年平均晴天日数,并分析辽宁省太阳总辐射空间分布差异的原因。结果表明:全省最佳倾角角度为36°～41°,最小出现在金州,最大分别出现在康平、昌图、法库和西丰;最佳倾角斜面太阳总辐射在辽宁西部和北部地区明显偏多,其中,朝阳北部和阜新西部部分地区最多;追踪式斜面较最佳倾角斜面太阳总辐射的增加量和提升百分比的幅度均较大,分别达到约700～2300 MJ/m2和13%～41%,且存在较明显的呈区域性分布特征,其中,太阳总辐射的增加量在辽宁西部更明显,而太阳总辐射的提升百分比则以沿海地区的幅度更大,超过37%,大连南部更是超过39%;晴天日数或云量是影响辽宁省太阳能总辐射的空间分布差异的主要因素。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

正The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth's climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.