> 25 MeV Proton Events Observed by the High Energy Telescopes on the STEREO A and B Spacecraft and/or at Earth During the First ∼ Seven Years of the STEREO Mission

Using observations from the High Energy Telescopes (HETs) on the STEREO A and B spacecraft and similar observations from near-Earth spacecraft, we summarize the properties of more than 200 individual >?25 MeV solar proton events, some detected by multiple spacecraft, that occurred from the beginning of the STEREO mission in October 2006 to December 2013, and provide a catalog of these events and their solar sources and associations. Longitudinal dependencies of the electron and proton peak intensities and delays to onset and peak intensity relative to the solar event have been examined for 25 three-spacecraft particle events. Expressed as Gaussians, peak intensities fall off with longitude with σ=47±14^° for 0.7?–?4 MeV electrons, and σ=43±13^° for 14?–?24 MeV protons. Several particle events are discussed in more detail, including one on 3 November 2011, in which ～?25 MeV protons filled the inner heliosphere within 90 minutes of the solar event, and another on 7 March 2012, in which we demonstrate that the first of two coronal mass ejections that erupted from an active region within ～?1 hour was associated with particle acceleration. Comparing the current Solar Cycle 24 with the previous cycle, the first >?25 MeV proton event was detected at Earth in the current solar cycle around one year after smoothed sunspot minimum, compared with a delay of only two months in Cycle 23. Otherwise, solar energetic particle event occurrence rates were reasonably similar during the rising phases of Cycles 23 and 24. However, the rate declined in 2013, reflecting the decline in sunspot number since the peak in the northern-hemisphere sunspot number in November 2011. Observations in late 2013 suggest that the rate may be rising again in association with an increase in the southern sunspot number.     

Power-law distribution for solar energetic proton events

Analyses of the time-integrated fluxes of solar energetic particle events during the period 1965–1990 show that the differential distribution of events with flux F is given by a power law, with indices between 1.2 and 1.4 depending on energy. The power law represents a good fit over three to four orders of magnitude in fluence. Similar power-law distributions have been found for peak proton and electron fluxes, X-ray flares and radio and type III bursts. At fluences greater than 10⁹ cm^–2, the slope of the distribution steepens and beyond 10¹⁰ cm^–2 the power-law index is estimated to be 3.5. At energies greater than 10 MeV, the slope of the distribution was found to be essentially independent of solar cycle, when the active years of solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 were analysed. The results presented are the first for a complete period of 27 years, covering nearly 3 complete solar cycles. Other new aspects of the results include the invariance of the exponent with solar cycle and also with integral energy.     

Multiple acceleration of protons on the Sun and their free propagation to the Earth on January 20, 2005

We analyze the observations of solar protons with energies >80 MeV near the Earth and the January 20, 2005, solar flare in various ranges of the electromagnetic spectrum. Within approximately the first 30 min after their escape into interplanetary space, the solar protons with energies above 80 MeV propagated without scattering to the Earth and their time profiles were determined only by the time profile of the source on the Sun and its energy spectrum. The 80–165 MeV proton injection function was nonzero beginning at 06:43:80 UT and can be represented as the product of the temporal part, the ACS (Anticoincidence System) SPI (Spectrometer on INTEGRAL) count rate, and the energy part, a power-law proton spectrum ～E ^?4.7±0.1. Protons with energies above 165 MeV and relativistic electrons were injected, respectively, 4 and 9 min later than this time. The close correlation between high-energy solar electromagnetic emission and solar proton fluxes near the Earth is evidence for prolonged and multiple proton acceleration in solar flares. The formation of a posteruptive loop system was most likely accompanied by successive energy releases and acceleration of charged particles with various energies. Our results are in conflict with the ideas of cosmic-ray acceleration in gradual solar particle events at the shock wave driven by a coronal mass ejection.     

A Study of the Solar Proton Flux Model

The solar proton event (SPE) may become a serious threat to the cosmonautical activities of human beings, so the prediction of the flux of solar protons within a certain period has important guiding significance for the projection of the anti-radiation solidification of space vehicles. On the basis of a statistical analysis of the data of SPEs in the 20th to 23rd cycles of solar activity, a new model of solar proton fluxes with E > 10 MeV and E > 30 MeV is established. In comparison with the JPL model, which is frequently adopted in the present aerospace engineering, the influence factor of solar activity on the occurrence of proton events is introduced, and it can be used to estimate the proton fluxes under various levels of solar activity. The results can better match the characteristics of the distribution of proton events.     

A Study of the Frequency of Occurrence of Large-Fluence Solar Proton Events and the Strength of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field

It has been shown previously that the number of very-large-fluence solar proton events inferred for the period since 1561 were more frequent at times of low solar activity (e.g., following the recovery from the Maunder minimum), than in the present epoch of high solar activity. An inverse dependence is demonstrated between the probability of observation of the very large-fluence solar proton events and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field derived from empirical predictions. Using the observed dependence, it is predicted and demonstrated that large-fluence solar proton events have been observed at Earth more frequently near the recurrent minima of the solar activity cycle in the past than during the present epoch. We show that these results are explicable in terms of the linear dependence of the Alfvén velocity upon the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, leading to higher shock compression ratios in the past. These results indicate that this aspect of “solar weather” will be significantly influenced by the prevailing strength of the interplanetary magnetic field, and that recurrence of solar conditions similar to those of the solar activity minimum of solar cycles 12–14 (1878.9–1913.6) would be accompanied by a factor of ∼4 increase in the occurrence of large-fluence solar proton events.     

Evolution and flare productivity of active regions in October–November 2003

In the current solar cycle, the concentration of flare activity peaked during the period from October 19 to November 5, 2003, 3.5 years after the maximum point of the current solar-activity cycle. During this time, 56 high-(16) and medium-class flares occurred on the Sun, including 11 X flares. The flux of every such flare exceeded by a factor of 30 to 600 the 1–8 Å soft X-ray background flux of the entire Sun during flare-free periods. The disturbances caused by these flares produced six major S2-to S4-level proton events and four G1-to G5-class magnetic storms in the Earth’s space environment. Among the solar events observed were the most powerful X-ray flare of the current solar cycle, the eighth solar proton event in terms of particle flux during the entire history of observations, and the seventh magnetic storm in terms of Ap index. The most powerful flare resulted in the fastest coronal mass ejection during the current solar cycle with the solar plasma moving through interplanetary space at a velocity of 10⁶ km/s, which is about four times higher than the average velocity. Severe magnetic storms during the period from September 29 through October 3 posed a lot of problems for research and technological satellites (Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), Aqua, Chandra, Chips, Cluster, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) 9, 10, and 12, etc.) and spacecraft in interplanetary space (Mars Explorer Rover and Microwave Anisotropy Probe). The Advanced Earth Observing Satellite 2 (ADEOS 2), a Japanese satellite for monitoring the Earth’s environment, was disabled at the time of the arrival of the powerful interplanetary shock from the superflare of October 28, 2003. During this period, the ISS astronauts were forced to escape into the aft part of the station five times, which ensured the strongest protection against radiation. This paper is dedicated to the study of the solar situation and individual flare events.     

Solar proton events during solar cycles 19, 20, and 21

Solar proton events have been studied for over thirty years and a great deal of lore has grown around them. It is the purpose of this paper to test some of this lore against the actual data. Data on solar proton events now exist for the period from 1956 to 1985 during which time 140 events took place in which the event integrated fluxes for protons of energy > 30 MeV was larger than 10⁵ particles cm^-2. We have studied statistical properties of event integrated fluxes for particles with energy > 10 MeV and for particles with energy > 30 MeV. Earlier studies based on a single solar cycle had resulted in a sharp division of events into ordinary and anomalously large events.Two such entirely separate distributions imply two entirely separate acceleration mechanisms, one common and the other very rare. We find that the sharp division is neither required nor justified by this larger sample. Instead the event intensity forms a smooth distribution for intensities up to the largest observed implying that any second acceleration mechanism cannot be rare. We have also studied the relation of event sizes to the sunspot number and the solar cycle phase. We find a clear bimodal variation of annual integrated flux with solar cycle phase but no statistically significant tendency for the large events to avoid sunspot maximum. We show there is almost no relation between the maximum sunspot number in a solar cycle and the solar cycle integrated flux. We also find that for annual sunspot numbers greater than 35 (i.e., non-minimum solar cycle conditions) there is no relation whatsoever between the annual sunspot numbers and annual integrated flux.     

Peak-Size Distributions of Proton Fluxes and Associated Soft X-Ray Flares

A database combining information about solar proton enhancements (SPEs) near the Earth and soft X-ray flares (GOES measurements) has been used for the study of different correlations through the period from 1975 to May 2006. The emphasis of this work is on the treatment of peak-size distributions of SXR flares and SPEs. The frequency of SXR flares and solar proton events (>10 and >100 MeV, respectively) for the past three solar cycles has been found to follow mainly a power-law distribution over three to five orders of magnitude of fluxes, which is physically correct beyond the “sensitivity” problem with the smallest peak values. The absence of significant spectral steepening in the domain of the highest peak values demonstrates that during the period considered, lasting 30 years, the limit of the highest flare’s energy release has not yet been achieved. The power-law exponents were found to be −2.19±0.04, −1.34±0.02, and −1.46±0.04, for the total SXR flare distribution and the total SPE distributions (for both E _P>10 MeV and E _P>100 MeV), respectively. For SPEs associated with flares located to the West of 20° W, the exponents are −1.22±0.05 (E _P>10 MeV) and −1.26±0.03 (E _P>100 MeV). The size distribution for corresponding flares follows a power law with a slope of −1.29±0.12. Thus, X-ray and proton fluxes produced in the same solar events have very similar distribution shapes. Moreover, the derived slopes are not incompatible with a linear dependence between X-ray flare power and proton fluxes near the Earth. A similar statistical relation is obtained independently from the direct comparison of the X-ray and proton fluxes. These all argue for a statistically significant relationship between X-ray and proton emissions.     

Solar transients disturbing the terrestrial magnetic environment at higher latitudes

Geomagnetic field variations during five major Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events of solar cycle 23 have been investigated in the present study. The SEP events of 1 October 2001, 4 November 2001, 22 November 2001, 21 April 2002 and 14 May 2005 have been selected to study the geomagnetic field variations at two high-latitude stations, Thule (77.5^° N, 69.2^° W) and Resolute Bay (74.4^° E, 94.5^° W) of the northern polar cap. We have used the GOES proton flux in seven different energy channels (0.8–4 MeV, 4–9 MeV, 9–15 MeV, 15–40 MeV, 40–80 MeV, 80–165 MeV, 165–500 MeV). All the proton events were associated with geoeffective or Earth directed CMEs that caused intense geomagnetic storms in response to geospace. We have taken high-latitude indices, AE and PC, under consideration and found fairly good correlation of these with the ground magnetic field records during the five proton events. The departures of the H component during the events were calculated from the quietest day of the month for each event and have been represented as ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES for Thule and Resolute Bay, respectively. The correspondence of spectral index, inferred from event integrated spectra, with ground magnetic signatures ΔH _THL and ΔH _RES along with Dst and PC indices have been brought out. From the correlation analysis we found a very strong correlation to exist between the geomagnetic field variation (ΔHs) and high-latitude indices AE and PC. To find the association of geomagnetic storm intensity with proton flux characteristics we derived the correspondence between the spectral indices and geomagnetic field variations (ΔHs) along with the Dst and AE index. We found a strong correlation (0.88) to exist between the spectral indices and ΔHs and also between spectral indices and AE and PC.     

Energy Spectra of low-Flux Protons in the Inner Heliosphere under Quiet Solar Conditions

The energy spectra of protons at energies in the range of about 1–100 MeV are investigated during time periods of low solar activity using data sets from near Earth spacecraft. These populations pose a tough experimental and theoretical problem that remains unsolved up to now. We attempt to provide a consistent definition of low-flux quiet-time periods relevant to low solar activity as well as quasi-stationary periods useful at higher levels of solar activity. Using statistical methods, the possible instrumental contribution to the lowest observed proton fluxes for various detectors is estimated. We suggest and prove that there exists a low-flux population of charged particles in the energy range of about 1–10 MeV, which is present in the inner heliosphere even during the quietest conditions at lowest solar activity. The dynamics of the variations of proton spectra over the solar cycle is investigated. A series of low-flux periods is examined in detail and energy spectra of protons are approximated in the form of J(E)=AE ^–+CE. By determining the best fitting parameters to the energy spectra correlations are made among them as well as with monthly sunspot numbers characterizing solar activity. It has been demonstrated that the value of the energy minimum of proton spectrum E _min that `divides' the two populations – `solar/heliospheric' and `galactic' – is shifted towards higher values with increasing solar activity. Protons have been argued to be predominantly of solar origin up to several MeV near the solar cycle minimum and up to 20–30 MeV at maximum. The slope of the lower spectrum branch (parameter ) slightly decreases with increasing solar activity. The minimum fluxes observed during the last 3 minima of solar activity are compared; the lowest fluxes were those during the 1985–1987 period.     

North and south major flare periodicities during solar cycle 20

The periodicities of monthly values of major flare numbers and comprehensive major flare index (CFI) have been studied for the 20^th solar cycle. It has been proved that the periodicity 152 days exists also in the southern (S) solar hemisphere. This periodicity has been previously defined in the earlier cycles to be a northern (N) periodicity, but it has migrated to the southern hemisphere (S) during the cycles 19, 20, 21. For the whole solar disk data, it has been found that the periodicity at 78.43^d is much remarkable than its first harmonic at 156.86^d. We have also detected very strong periodicity at 548.96^d in N-hemisphere while a strong one has been found near 100^d in both solar hemispheres. The detected periodicities at 80±2^d and 101-⁺1^d seems to have a global origin . The 87.1^d periodicity is present and it is suggested that it is related to 88^d periodicity attributed to the tidal influence of the planet Mercury on sunspots. Both hemispheres present their periodicities independently.     

Solar cycle variation in energetic particle emissivity of the sun

Long-term variation in energetic particle emissivity of the sun was examined by the use of PCA, solar proton flux, and geomagnetic data from 1941 to 1973. A solar cycle may be divided into three periods in terms of the Sun's particle emissivity. The first period with a peak of emissivity coinciding with the maximum of Zurich sunspot numbers is characterized by the random occurrence of proton flares along the heliographic longitude. On the other hand, active centers were restricted in certain longitude regions and had a tendency to produce a series of major flares in a week or two during the second period. The peak of particle emissivity in this period occurred a few years after the first. Relativistic proton events were observed during both the periods of enhanced particle emissivity. In the third period near the end of the solar cycle, MeV proton events of 27-days recurrency became predominating, though particle emissivity of the Sun itself was relatively low.     

Enhancement of Solar Energetic Particles During a Shock – Magnetic Cloud Interacting Complex Structure

The behavior of solar energetic particles (SEPs) in a shock – magnetic cloud interacting complex structure observed by the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) spacecraft on 5 November 2001 is analyzed. A strong shock causing magnetic field strength and solar wind speed increases of about 41 nT and 300 km s⁻¹, respectively, propagated within a preceding magnetic cloud (MC). It is found that an extraordinary SEP enhancement appeared at the high-energy (≥10 MeV) proton intensities and extended over and only over the entire period of the shock – MC structure passing through the spacecraft. Such SEP behavior is much different from the usual picture that the SEPs are depressed in MCs. The comparison of this event with other top SEP events of solar cycle 23 (2000 Bastille Day and 2003 Halloween events) shows that such an enhancement resulted from the effects of the shock – MC complex structure leading to the highest ≥10 MeV proton intensity of solar cycle 23. Our analysis suggests that the relatively isolated magnetic field configuration of MCs combined with an embedded strong shock could significantly enhance the SEP intensity; SEPs are accelerated by the shock and confined into the MC. Further, we find that the SEP enhancement at lower energies happened not only within the shock – MC structure but also after it, probably owing to the presence of a following MC-like structure. This is consistent with the picture that SEP fluxes could be enhanced in the magnetic topology between two MCs, which was proposed based on numerical simulations by Kallenrode and Cliver (Proc. 27th ICRC 8, 3318, 2001b).     

High energetic solar proton flares on the declining phase of solar cycle 22

The year 1991 is a part of the declining phase of the solar cycle 22, during which high energetic flares have been produced by active regions NOAA/USAF 6659 in June. The associated solar proton events have affected the Earth environment and their proton fluxes have been measured by GOES space craft. The evaluation of solar activity during the first half of June 1991, have been carried out by applying a method for high energetic solar flares prediction on the flares of June 1991. The method depends on cumulative summation curves according to observed H-alpha flares, X-ray bursts, in the active region 6659 during one rotation when the energetic solar flares of June 1991 have occurred. It has been found that the steep trend of increased activity sets on several tens of hours prior to the occurrence of the energetic flare, which can be used, together with other methods, for forecasts of major flares. All the used data at the present work are received from NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA.     

Occurrence Probability of Large Solar Energetic Particle Events: Assessment from Data on Cosmogenic Radionuclides in Lunar Rocks

We revisited assessments of the occurrence probability distribution of large events in solar energetic particles (SEP), based on measurements of cosmogenic radionuclides in lunar rocks. We present a combined cumulative occurrence probability distribution of SEP events based on three timescales: directly measured SEP fluences for the past 60 years; estimates based on the terrestrial cosmogenic radionuclides ¹⁰Be and ¹⁴C for the multi-millennial (Holocene) timescale; and cosmogenic radionuclides measured in lunar rocks on a timescale of up to 1 Myr. These three timescales yield a consistent distribution. The data suggest a strong roll-over of the occurrence probability, so that SEP events with a proton fluence with energy >?30 MeV greater than 10¹¹ (protons cm^?2?yr^?1) are not expected on a Myr timescale.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wind</Emphasis>/EPACT Proton Event Catalog (1996 – 2016)

We present the finalized catalog of solar energetic proton events detected by the Wind/EPACT instrument over the period 1996?–?2016. Onset times, peak times, peak proton intensity and onset-to-peak proton fluence are evaluated for the two available energy channels, at about 25 and 50 MeV. We describe the procedure utilized to identify the proton events and to relate them to their solar origin (in terms of flares and coronal mass ejections). The statistical relationships between the energetic protons and their origin (linear and partial correlation analysis) are reported and discussed in view of earlier findings. Finally, the different trends found in the first 8 years of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 are discussed.     

THE BASTILLE DAY (14 JULY 2000) EVENT IN HISTORICAL LARGE SUN–EARTH CONNECTION EVENTS

One of the large Sun–Earth connection events in solar cycle 23 occurred between 14 and 16 July 2000. Anomalies occurring on several satellites were reported in association with this event. Statistical study of extreme events is important not only for a view of space weather but for seeking ways to predict such kinds of large events. The Bastille Day event was characterized by a large flux (24 000 p.f.u. at its maximum) of solar energetic protons and a fast average transit speed of approximately 1500 km s⁻¹ of the interplanetary disturbance. A geomagnetic Kp index of more than 9 was observed after an interval of approximately eleven years since 1989. We found that return periods of extreme space weather (e.g., large flares, solar energetic proton events, and large geomagnetic storms) satisfied the Weibull distribution.     

Solar Energetic Particle Events with Protons Above 500 MeV Between 1995 and 2015 Measured with SOHO/EPHIN

The Sun is an effective particle accelerator that produces solar energetic particle (SEP) events, during which particles of up to several GeVs can be observed. These events, when they are observed at Earth with the neutron monitor network, are called ground-level enhancements (GLEs). Although these events with their high-energy component have been investigated for several decades, a clear relation between the spectral shape of the SEPs outside the Earth’s magnetosphere and the increase in neutron monitor count rate has yet to be established. Hence, an analysis of these events is of interest for the space weather and for the solar event community.In this article, SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV were identified using data obtained with the Electron Proton Helium Instrument (EPHIN) onboard the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) between 1995 and 2015. For a statistical analysis, onset times were determined for the events and the proton energy spectra were derived and fitted with a power law.As a result, we present a list of 42 SEP events with protons accelerated to above 500 MeV measured with the EPHIN instrument onboard SOHO. The statistical analysis based on the fitted spectral slopes and absolute intensities is discussed, with special emphasis on whether an event has been observed as a GLE. Furthermore, we are able to determine that the derived intensity at 500 MeV and the observed increase in neutron monitor count rate are correlated for a subset of events.     

Analysis of the Properties of Super Solar Proton Events and Associated Phenomena

The solar flares, the speeds of shocks propagated in the solar-terrestrial space and driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), the heliographic longitudes and Carrington longitudes of source regions, and the geomagnetic storms, which are accompanied by the super solar proton events with a peak ?ux equal to or exceeding 10 000 pfu, have been studied by using the data of ground-based and space observations. The results show that the heliographic longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the range from E30? to W75°. The Carrington longitudes of source regions of super solar proton events distributed in the two longitudinal belts, 130°∼220° and 260°∼320°, respectively. All super solar proton events were accompanied by major solar flares and fast CMEs. The averaged speeds of shocks propagated from the sun to the Earth were greater than 1 200 km/s. Eight super solar proton events were followed by major geomagnetic storms (Dst≤−100 nT), except that one super solar proton event was followed by a geomagnetic storm with the geomagnetic activity index Dst=−96 nT, a little smaller than that of major geomagnetic storms.     

Size Distrtibutions of the >10 MeV Solar Proton Events

As has been recognized recently, data on size (frequency) distributions for different sets of solar flare parameters are very helpful in modeling flare and acceleration processes. Relying upon a new arising paradigm of particle acceleration at different sources at/near the Sun (flares, shock waves, etc.), in this paper, we analyze long-term data (1955–1996) from several Catalogues of Solar Proton Events (SPEs). Above 1 p.f.u. (proton cm^–2 s^–1 sr^–1) of the >10 MeV protons, we have separated in all 320 events associated with identified sources (flares). Then, within this database of flare-related events, a second group (a subgroup) has been formed of the 159 events, additionally having a certain or probable sudden storm commencement (SSC) association (SSC-related events). The basic result is that the power-law slope of size distribution for the 320 flare-related events at integral energy intensities is about 1.37 ± 0.05 over the entire range of the proton intensities, from 1.0 to 10⁵ p.f.u. This slope is in general agreement with earlier analyses of integral energy distributions, but steeper than that for differential energy distributions. A second result is that the SSC-associated events have a double power-law distribution with two different exponents, near 1.00 ± 0.04 and 1.53 ± 0.03 below and above 10³ p.f.u., respectively. The longitude distributions of the proper sources for these two groups display different behaviour suggesting different origins of the two particle populations. A certain difference was also found to exist in the slopes of integral size distributions at >10 MeV and >500 MeV. This may point to a dependence of slope on the proton energy under consideration.