大气模式动态测定的研究

利用12万组大气阻力资料，对DTM－1994模式进行改造，获得了一个新的大气模式，该模式的特点是：1．利用2阶周日峰效应，代替了原来模式中的复杂的周日效应表达式，减少了模式参数（少于50个），并使模式参数均具有明确的物理意义，2．分清了模式的主要参数和次要参数，在主要参数中，又分清了利用了阻力资料可以改进的参数和可能改不好的参数．3．与MSIS－1990和DTM－1994模式相比，其互差可以被接受，说明使用卫星阻力资料可以进行大气模式动态改正，不仅能测定大气总密度，并且能测定大气的分密度，4．与卫星轨道相比较，改进有显优于MSIS－1990模式，在120km轨道附近，改进模式密度比MSIS－1990模式大10％，同时我们在卫星陨落期预报中发现，MSIS－1990模式密度比实际大气密度小9％，这说明改进模式的密度与实际大气的密度基本接近。     

射电天线指向改正模型中轴系误差的完全表达式

为了提高射电天线的目标跟踪精度,采用直接法推导了射电天线轴系误差对指向的影响,并给出轴系误差指向改正模型的完全表达式,明确了指向改正模型中各轴系参数的定义,传统分项以及球谐函数所推导的轴系误差项为该模型的简化形式.基于此,评估得出基本参数改正模型中,因忽略轴系误差高次谐项而引起的指向精度损失可能达到1′′量级,具体需结合轴系误差大小而定;同时明确了基本参数改正模型(如22项指向模型)中与轴系误差有关的部分高次谐项系数的物理意义.为高精度轴系误差指向改正模型的建立提供了理论依据.     

A Stochastic Prediction Model for the Sunspot Cycles

A stochastic prediction model for the sunspot cycle is proposed. The prediction model is based on a modified binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions and a moving-average model over the estimated model parameters. A six-parameter modified binary mixture of Laplace distribution functions is used for the modeling of the shape of a generic sunspot cycle. The model parameters are estimated for 23 sunspot cycles independently, and the primary prediction-model parameters are derived from these estimated model parameters using a moving-average stochastic model. A correction factor (hump factor) is introduced to make an initial prediction. The hump factor is computed for a given sunspot cycle as the ratio of the model estimated after the completion of a sunspot cycle (post-facto model) and the prediction of the moving-average model. The hump factors can be applied one at a time over the moving-average prediction model to get a final prediction of a sunspot cycle. The present model is used to predict the characteristics of Sunspot Cycle 24. The methodology is validated using the previous Sunspot Cycles 21, 22, and 23, which shows the adequacy and the applicability of the prediction model. The statistics of the variations of sunspot numbers at high solar activity are used to provide the lower and upper bound for the predictions using the present model.     

Evaluation of the STORM-Time Ionospheric Empirical Model for the Bastille Day event

Recent theoretical model simulations of the ionospheric response to geomagnetic storms have provided the understanding for the development of an empirical storm-time ionospheric model (STORM). The empirical model is driven by the previous time-history of a _p, and is designed to scale the quiet-time F-layer critical frequency (f _o F ₂) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. The model provides a useful, yet simple tool for modeling of the perturbed ionosphere. The quality of the model prediction has been evaluated by comparing with the observed ionospheric response during the Bastille Day (July 2000) storm. With a maximum negative D _st of −290 nT and an a _p of 400, this magnetic perturbation was the strongest of year 2000. For these conditions, the model output was compared with the actual ionospheric response from all available stations, providing a reasonable latitudinal and longitudinal coverage. The comparisons show that the model captures the decreases in electron density particularly well in the northern summer hemisphere. In winter, the observed ionospheric response was more variable, showing a less consistent response, imposing a more severe challenge to the empirical model. The value of the model has been quantified by comparing the root mean square error (RMSE) of the STORM predictions with the monthly mean. The results of this study illustrate that the STORM model reduces the RMSE at the peak of the disturbance from 0.36 to 0.22, a significant improvement over climatology.     

A note on the values of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field in the return flux sunspot model

The Return Flux (RF) sunspot model (Osherovich, 1982) imposes a restriction on the value of the vertical gradient of the magnetic field, dB/dz, analogous to a restriction implied by the self-similar sunspot model of Schlüter and Temesvary (ST). The maximum value of the gradient, (dB/dz)_max, is shown to be 10% smaller in the RF model than in the ST model. The dependence of (dB/dz)_max on the sunspot radius is predicted.     

解决G矮星问题的银河系化学演化三成分模型

为解释著名的G矮星问题,提出银河系化学演化的三成分模型,即由银晕、厚盘和薄盘所构成的演化模型．相邻演化阶段间隔着一个快速坍缩过程．对不同星族成分的演化过程分别进行模拟,并在总体上得到一个太阳附近区域的G矮星丰度分布函数．检验了三种不同的模型：初始富化模型、比例生成模型和坍缩模型．利用最小二乘拟合得到最佳模型的参数．结果表明,太阳附近区域的化学演化受物质交换的影响较小,至少在银河系演化的晚期,可将太阳附近区域看作封闭系统．同时,单位质量中新合成的重元素比例对三种恒星成分可分别近似为常数,其差别则说明不同星族恒星的初始质量函数存在着显著差异．     

电离层延迟改正模型综述

电离层延迟改正模型通常可以分为广播星历用的预报模型、广域差分用的实时模型、后处理模型3类,不同应用要求需要选择不同的模型。主要比较分析了几种常用的电离层延迟改正模型: 用于广域差分中生成格网模型的三角级数模型、多项式模型、低阶球谐函数模型等都可以获得很好的改正效果,且这3种模型基本上是等价的;电离层延迟谐函数展开模型可以用来分析电离层长时间系列的变化特征;国际电离层参考模型IRI的改正精度一般可以达到60％的效果;而GPS 星历采用的Klobuchar模型的参数设置存在一些不足,对此提出了一些改进措施。     

Solving the G-dwarf problem with a three-component model of the chemical evolution of the Galaxy

A three-component chemical evolution model of the Galaxy is presented, which we believe will cast a new light on the G-dwarf problem. The model is based on a scenario of the Galaxy consisting of three major evolutionary phases: halo, thick disk and thin disk, separated by two short interludes of rapid collapse. The evolution of different stellar populations are treated separately, the combination of which yields an overall metallicity distribution function for the solar neighbourhood. We tested three different models using the same set of basic equations: the “prompt initial enrichment” (PIE) model, the “proportional yield” (PPY) model and the “collapse” (CLP) model. Best-fit parameters are derived. The results show that the different populations have remarkably different IMFs, while mass exchange has only minimally affected the chemical evolution in the solar vicinity, so that the solar vicinity can be regarded as a closed system, at least in the late stage of the Galactic evolution.     

Gravitational lenses in the dark Universe

We discuss how different cosmological models of the Universe affect the probability that a background source has multiple images related by an angular distance, i.e., the optical depth of gravitational lensing. We examine some cosmological models for different values of the density parameter Ω _i : (i) the cold dark matter model, (ii) the ΛCDM model, (iii) the Bose-Einstein condensate dark matter model, (iv) the Chaplygin gas model, (v) the viscous fluid cosmological model and (vi) the holographic dark energy model by using the singular isothermal sphere (SIS) model for the halos of dark matter. We note that the dependence of the energy-matter content of the universe profoundly modifies the frequency of multiple quasar images.     

On the model structure of the gravity field of Mars

A discussion is presented about the constraints used in constructing a model for the internal structure of Mars. The most important fact is that the Martian chemical model proposed by Wänke and Dreibus (WD) has stood the test of time. This means that the chondritic ratio Fe/Si = 1.71 can be used as a constraint in constructing an interior structure model of the planet. Consideration is given to the constructing of the reference surface of Mars. It is concluded that the effectively hydrostatic-equilibrium model of Mars is well suited for this purpose. The areoid heights and gravity anomalies in the model of Mars are calculated. The results are shown in the figures (maps) and comments made. The results are compared with the similar data for the Earth. Mars deviates much more strongly from the hydrostatic equilibrium than the Earth. It is suggested that the average thickness of the Martian elastic lithosphere should exceed that of the Earth’s continental lithosphere.     

A global model of the internal magnetic field of the Moon based on Lunar Prospector magnetometer observations

A preliminary model of the internal magnetic field of the Moon is developed using a novel, correlative technique on the low-altitude Lunar Prospector magnetic field observations. Subsequent to the removal of a simple model of the external field, an internal dipole model is developed for each pole-to-pole half-orbit. This internal dipole model exploits Lunar Prospector's orbit geometry and incorporates radial and theta vector component data from immediately adjacent passes into the model. These adjacent passes are closely separated in space and time and are thus characteristic of a particular lunar regime (wake, solar wind, magnetotail, magnetosheath) or regimes. Each dipole model thus represents the correlative parts of three adjacent passes, and provides an analytic means of continuing the data to a constant surface of 30 km above the mean lunar radius. The altitude-normalized radial field from the wake and tail regimes is used to build a model in which 99.2% of the 360 by 360 bins covering the lunar surface are filled. This global model of the radial magnetic field is used to construct a degree 178 spherical harmonic model of the field via the Driscoll and Healy sampling theorem. Terms below about degree 150 are robust, and polar regions are considered to be the least reliable. The model resolves additional detail in the low magnetic field regions of the Imbrium and Orientale basins, and also in the four anomaly clusters antipodal to the large lunar basins. The model will be of use in understanding the sources of the internal field, and as a first step in modeling the interaction of the internal field with the solar wind.     

Energy Balance in the Corona over the 22-Year Solar Cycle

Wheatland and Litvinenko (2001) presented a model for dynamical energy balance in the flaring solar corona which predicts a time lag between flare occurrence and the supply of energy to the corona (`driving'). They also suggested that an observed net lag between flare numbers and sunspot numbers over cycles 21 and 22 might provide support for the model. Temmer, Veronig, and Hanslmeier (2003) examined data for five individual solar cycles (19–23) and confirmed a lag between flare and sunspot numbers for odd solar cycles, but found no lag for even cycles. Following the suggestion of Temmer, Veronig, and Hanslmeier, the energy balance model is here extended to incorporate 22-year driving consistent with the phenomenological Gnevyshev—Ohl rule. The model is found to exhibit a greater lag for the smaller (even) cycles, in contradiction with the findings of Temmer, Veronig, and Hanslmeier. A modification to the model is investigated in which the flaring rate is proportional to the free energy and to the driving rate for small driving rates, but is proportional only to the free energy for large driving rates. The modified model can in principle account for the observations.     

Density models for the upper atmosphere

Modeling the effects of atmospheric drag is one of the more important problems associated with the determination of the orbit of a near-earth satellite. Errors in the drag model can lead to significant errors in the determination and prediction of the satellite motion. The uncertainty in the drag acceleration can be attributed to three separate effects: (a) errors in the atmospheric density model, (b) errors in the ballistic coefficient, and (c) errors in the satellite relative velocity. In a number of contemporary satellite missions, the requirements for performing the orbit determination and predictions in near real-time has placed an emphasis on density model computation time as well as the model accuracy. In this investigation, a comparison is made of three contemporary atmospheric density models which are candidates for meeting the current orbit computation requirements. The models considered are the analytic Jacchia-Roberts model, the modified Harris-Priester model, and the USSR Cosmos satellite derived density model. The computational characteristics of each of the models are compared and a modification to the modified Harris-Priester model is proposed which improves its ability to represent the diurnal variation in the atmospheric density.This investigation was supported by the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center under contract NAS5-20946 and Contract NSG 5154.     

Predicting the properties of the remnants of dissipative galaxy mergers

We construct a physically motivated model for predicting the properties of the remnants of gaseous galaxy mergers, given the properties of the progenitors and the orbit. The model is calibrated using a large suite of smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) merger simulations. It implements generalized energy conservation while accounting for dissipative energy losses and star formation. The dissipative effects are evaluated from the initial gas fractions and from the orbital parameters via an 'impulse' parameter, which characterizes the strength of the encounter. Given the progenitor properties, the model predicts the remnant stellar mass, half-mass radius and velocity dispersion to an accuracy of 25 per cent. The model is valid for both major and minor mergers. We provide an explicit recipe for semi-analytic models of galaxy formation.     

The continuum of the extreme limb and the chromosphere at the 1970 eclipse

The flash spectra of the partial Sun and the chromosphere were obtained at the total solar eclipse on 7 March, 1970. We studied the distributions of the surface brightness of the continuum at six wavelengths in the visual region to compare them with the previous observations and the existing model atmospheres. All of the distributions show a shallow dip and a small hump similar to those of Heintze's observation at the 1954 eclipse. But the hump in our results is of quite a different type from that given by Heintze's revised model. It was found that none of the existing model atmospheres can reproduce this hump. The intensity distribution in the low chromosphere was also examined.     

Evolution of the energy density in the static universe

The Einstein static model of the universe as a whole is considered. The Hubble law is explained by the Doppler effect due to the downward inertial acceleration along a certain radius experienced by an observer in the center of the universe, with the total acceleration over all radii being equal zero. Evolution of the universe is introduced through the wave function of the universe dependent on time. This yields the energy density of the universe hence the temperature of the universe dependent on time. On the contrary, the energy, forth and intensity of radiation are fixed with time that allows to develop the Newtonian physics in the whole universe. The time-temperature relation of the universe in the model considered is the same as in the radiation dominated universe in the Friedmann model that allows to explain primordial nucleosynthesis as it is in the standard scenario. The modern parameters of the universe in the model considered are consistent with the observations.     

Modeling the IR spectrum of the dust shell around the [WC] star: V605 AQL

Nebulae around low mass Wolf-Rayet [WC] stars often show a strong midand near infrared (MN-IR) emission which cannot be explained with asingle grain size and an equilibrium temperature model. Weinvestigated the effect of the grain size, radiation density, andtemperature fluctuations of small dust grains on the spectral energydistribution (SED) in the infrared.A model of ISOCAM and IRAS measurements of V605 Aql (Kimeswenger et al., 1998) has beencomputed using a gas-dust combination model including transiently heatedparticles. Our calculations show that the central knot in V605 Aql(Abell 58) is too compact or just on the lower boundary that temperature fluctuations really have to be considered in model calculations forthe infrared SED.     

On the Evolution of the Apparent Size of Gamma-Ray Burst Remnants

The remnants of two gamma-ray bursts, GRB 030329 and GRB 041227, have been resolved by Very Long Baseline Interferometry observations. The radio counterparts were observed to expand with time. These observations provide an important way to test the dynamics of the standard fireball model. We show that the observed size evolution of these two events cannot be explained by a simple jet model, rather, it can be satisfactorily explained by the two-component jet model. It strongly hints that gamma-ray burst ejecta may have complicated structures.     

Comments on the mechanism for the spicule support

A one-dimensional model of nonviscous gas in isothermal flow is considered, using the theory of Abramovich (1976). A mechanism of spicule flow is proposed which successfully explains the observed spicule height. The model further predicts inhomogeneities in the magnetic field topology, and in the direction and magnitude of the velocity flow.