A two-way nested-grid ocean-circulation model for the Meso-American Barrier Reef System

A two-way nested-grid ocean-circulation model is developed for the Meso-American Barrier Reef System (MBRS), using a newly developed two-way interactive nesting technique. The unique feature of this new nesting technique is its use of the semi-prognostic method (Sheng et al. 2001) to exchange information between different grids through the model momentum equations. The nested-grid model for the MBRS has a fine-resolution inner model embedded in a coarse-resolution outer model. The outer model is the western Caribbean Sea model developed by Sheng and Tang (2003), with a horizontal resolution of roughly 19 km. The inner model domain covers the northwest Caribbean Sea (NWCS) between 79°W and 89°W and between 15.5°N and 22°N, with a horizontal resolution of roughly 6 km. The nested-grid ocean model is initialized with the January mean temperature and salinity and forced by the monthly mean COADS (comprehensive ocean-atmosphere data set) wind stress and surface heat flux. The model sea-surface salinity is restored to the monthly mean climatology. The nested-grid model is integrated for 2 years and the second-year model results are presented in this paper. The model-calculated annual-mean near-surface currents over the NWCS agree reasonably well with the time-mean near-surface currents inferred by Fratantoni (2001) from trajectories of the satellite-tracked 15-m drogued drifters in the 1990s. The two-way nested model is also used to quantify the role of local wind stress, local density gradients and boundary forcings of the outer model in driving the annual-mean circulation in the region.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Circulation in the Great Barrier Reef Lagoon using numerical tracers and in situ data

Numerical hydrodynamic models of the northeastern Queensland shelf, forced by regional winds and modelled boundary currents in the northern Coral Sea, are used to provide improved estimates of general flow trajectories and water residence times within the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) shelf system. Model performance was checked against a limited set of current metre records obtained at Lark Reef (16°S) and the Ribbon Reefs (15.5°S). Estimates of water parcel trajectories are derived from a series of numerical tracer experiments, with daily releases of neutrally buoyant, un-reactive particles at 320 sites along the coast between Cape York (10.7°S) and Hervey Bay (25°S). Flow trajectories and residence times for tracer particles introduced to the GBR lagoon in the southern—ca. 22°S, central—19°S, and northern reef—14°S are emphasised. For purposes of the analysis, the year was divided into two seasons based on mean alongshore current direction. Most coastal sourced tracers entering the central GBR lagoon between 16° and 20°S during the northward-current season (January–August) primarily encounter the outer-shelf reef matrix after exiting the lagoon at its northern “head” (nominally 16°S), after 50–150 days. Up to 70% of tracer particles entering in the southward-current season (August–December) eventually crossed the lagoon to the outer-shelf reef matrix, with median crossing times between 20 and 330 days. During favourable wind conditions, tracers introduced at the coast may move rapidly across the lagoon into the reef matrix. The tracer experiments indicate that most coastal-sourced tracers entering the GBR lagoon remain near the coast for extended periods of time, moving north and south in a coastal band. Residence times for conservative tracer particles (and implied residence times for water-borne materials) within the GBR shelf system ranged from ca. 1 month to 1 year—time frames that are very long relative to development times of planktonic larvae and cycling times for nutrient materials in the water column, implying they are transformed long before reaching the outer reef matrix.     

A numerical study of the circulation and monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea: the role of Caribbean eddies

This study examines the circulation and associated monthly-to-seasonal variability in the Caribbean Sea using a regional ocean circulation model. The model domain covers the region between 99.0 and 54.0°W and between 8.0 and 30.3°N, with a horizontal resolution of 1/6°. The ocean circulation model is driven by 6-hourly atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and boundary forcing extracted from 5-day global ocean reanalysis data produced by Smith et al. (Mercator Newsletter 36:39–49, 2010), and integrated for 7 years. A comparison of model results with observations demonstrates that the regional ocean circulation model has skill in simulating circulation and associated variability in the study region. Analysis of the model results, as well as a companion model run that uses steady annual mean forcing, illustrates the role of Caribbean eddies for driving monthly-to-seasonal circulation variability in the model. It is found that vertically integrated transport between Nicaragua and Jamaica is influenced by the interaction between the density perturbations associated with Caribbean eddies and the Nicaraguan Ridge. The impact of Caribbean eddies squeezing through the Yucatan Channel is also discussed.     

Organochlorine, Heavy Metal and Polyaromatic Hydrocarbon Pollutant Concentrations in the Great Barrier Reef (Australia) Environment: a Review

Past monitoring of heavy metals, organochlorine compounds and polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has found that pollutant concentrations are generally low within the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park and World Heritage Area and are indicative of a relatively unpolluted environment. The exceptions are sites that are adjacent to human activity such as ports and harbours, urban centres and areas adjacent to intensive agricultural activity. These sites have elevated concentrations of a range of pollutants. Concentrations of dioxins have also been found to be elevated in marine park sediments. Elevated pollutant concentrations are generally the consequence of effluent discharge, urban stormwater, and agricultural and industrial runoff. However, a majority of Great Barrier Reef pollutant data are now dated, and contemporary information is required concerning the distribution and impact of pollutants in the Queensland marine environment. The utility of specialized monitoring tools such as biomarkers for tropical marine environments urgently needs to be examined. With this information, appropriate risk assessment and monitoring can be implemented and effective management strategies developed to protect tropical marine ecosystems including the Great Barrier Reef.     

Water quality and coral bleaching thresholds: Formalising the linkage for the inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia

The threats of wide-scale coral bleaching and reef demise associated with anthropogenic climate change are widely known. Here, the additional role of poor water quality in lowering the thermal tolerance (i.e. bleaching ‘resistance’) of symbiotic reef corals is considered. In particular, a quantitative linkage is established between terrestrially-sourced dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) loading and the upper thermal bleaching thresholds of inshore reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Significantly, this biophysical linkage provides concrete evidence for the oft-expressed belief that improved coral reef management will increase the regional-scale survival prospects of corals reefs to global climate change. Indeed, for inshore reef areas with a high runoff exposure risk, it is shown that the potential benefit of this ‘local’ management imperative is equivalent to ∼2.0-2.5 °C in relation to the upper thermal bleaching limit; though in this case, a potentially cost-prohibitive reduction in end-of-river DIN of >50-80% would be required. An integrated socio-economic modelling framework is outlined that will assist future efforts to understand (optimise) the alternate tradeoffs that the water quality/coral bleaching linkage presents.     

大气变率对北极地区近期海冰变化趋势影响数值模拟研究

为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段.     

大气变率对北极地区近期海冰变化趋势影响数值模拟研究

为研究近期21年(1989—2009年)北极地区海冰变化原因,本文利用欧洲中期天气预报中心ERA-Interim数据集资料和美国麻省理工学院MITgcm全球海冰-海洋耦合模式开展了不同大气强迫条件下海冰变化的数值模拟研究.研究工作中共设计了6个数值试验,除1个试验全部采用1989—2009年每日4个时次的大气强迫场外,其余5个试验各有一种大气强迫(地表气温、地表大气比湿、向下短波辐射通量、向下长波辐射通量和地表风)采用1989年月平均结果.分析了各模拟试验结果中3月和9月北极地区海冰面积的年际变化特征及最小二乘拟合意义下的线性变化趋势,并以ERA-Interim结果为参照标准对各模拟试验结果进行了对比和检验,以说明不同大气强迫量变率对海冰变化的作用.结果表明:地表气温变率和向下长波辐射通量变率是造成海冰面积减少的主要原因;向下短波辐射通量变率对海冰面积变化影响几乎可以忽略;地表大气比湿变率对海冰面积线性变化趋势影响较小,但对海冰面积年际变化特征有调制作用;地表风变率对海冰季节变化、海冰面积线性变化趋势及年际变化特征均有明显影响,说明提高大气风应力精度是改善海冰数值模拟结果的重要手段.     

A three-dimensional model study of near-inertial motion: generation and influence of an along-shelf flow

A three-dimensional baroclinic model of the Balearic Sea region is used to examine the processes influencing the distribution of near-inertial currents and waves in the region. Motion is induced by a spatially uniform wind impulse. By using a uniform wind, Ekman pumping due to spatial variability in the wind is removed with the associated generation of internal waves. However, internal waves can still be produced where stratification intersects topography. The generation and propagation of these waves, together with the spatial distribution of wind-forced inertial oscillations, are examined in detail. Diagnostic calculations show that in the near-coastal region inertial oscillations are inhibited by the coastal boundary. Away from this boundary the magnitude of the inertial oscillations increases, with currents showing a 180° phase shift in the vertical. The inclusion of an along-shelf flow modifies the inertial currents due to non-linear interaction between vorticity in the flow and the inertial oscillations. Prognostic calculations show that besides inertial oscillations internal waves are generated. In a linear model the addition of an along-shelf flow produces a slight reduction in the energy at the near-inertial frequency due to enhanced viscosity associated with the flow and changes in density field. The inclusion of non-linear effects modifies the currents due to inertial oscillations in a manner similar to that found in the diagnostic model. A change in the effective inertial frequency also influences the propagation of the internal waves. However, this does not appear to be the main reason for the enhanced damping of inertial energy, which is due to the along-shelf advection of water of a different density into a region and increased viscosity and mixing associated with the along-shelf flow.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

Mesoscale slope current variability in the Gulf of Lions. Interpretation of in-situ measurements using a three-dimensional model

The ECOLOPHY experiments aimed at investigating physical exchanges between coastal and open sea. They were carried out in June and December 2005 over the shelf-break in the North-eastern part of the Gulf of Lions (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea). This area is considered to be the generation zone for the eddy and meandering structures of the Northern Current (NC). The objective of the present work is to examine mesoscale variability of this coastal slope current in the light of available data. Numerical modeling is used to support the field data analysis. ADCP current measurements over a one-year period show that mesoscale activity is maximal in late winter, correlating with the seasonal variability of the NC and, also, partly with local winds. Measured currents exhibit mesoscale fluctuations with periods ranging from 3 to 30 days, in agreement with previous analyses. Fluctuations of periods longer than 10 days are found to be mainly oriented in the direction of the mean current, whereas more frequently observed high frequency fluctuations tend to be oriented cross-slope, suggesting a relationship with the NC mesoscale meandering. Moreover, trajectories of surdrift buoys launched in the NC vein exhibit mesoscale phenomena, such as current meanders or eddies and on-shelf intrusions. Numerical modeling provides a synoptic point of view and is used hereafter to support physical interpretation of punctual eulerian or lagrangian measurements. Therefore, modeled hydrodynamic fields are used to analyze surdrift buoy trajectories and computed vertically averaged current and Ertel potential vorticity provide a better understanding of these behaviors.     

Seasonal characteristics of the Tsushima Current in the Tsushima/Korea Strait obtained by a fine-resolution numerical model

The horizontal distribution of the Tsushima Current in the Tsushima/Korea Strait is assessed by a fine-resolution numerical experiment. The comparison of the model results with the observations along a section crossing the strait shows that the model represents relatively well, the general tendency of what was observed, such as the separation of the Tsushima Current into the western and eastern streams by the Tsushima Island. In summer, strong and relatively uniformly distributed surface currents enhance the formation of the wake downstream of the Tsushima Island. The axis of the countercurrent, embedded in the wake, is closer to the western stream. Anti-cyclonic eddies are shed near the downstream tip of the Tsushima Island and propagate along the boundary between the western stream and the wake. The exchange of water between the western stream and the wake takes place through the intermediation of these eddies. There is a net water supply from the western stream to the wake, which is then carried to the eastern stream by the countercurrent via the eastern coast of the Tsushima Island. In winter, currents, strongly barotropic, tend to have banded structures, especially in the region downstream of the western channel where isobaths converge in the downstream direction. The eddies found in this region in winter appear to be fundamentally different from those associated with the Tsushima Island wake. The necessary condition for barotropic instability is satisfied for the monthly mean currents in this region, suggesting that the currents are barotropically unstable in this region in winter.     

Mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea: insight from a numerical model

Insight regarding the mean and eddy motion in the Skagerrak/northern North Sea area is gained through an analysis of model-simulated currents, hydrography, kinetic energy and relative vorticity for the 2 years 2000 and 2001. In this a -coordinate ocean model is used. Since the tidal currents are generally strong in the area, care is exercised to distinguish the mesoscale (eddy) motion from higher-frequency motion such as tides, before computing the mean and eddy kinetic energy. The model-simulated response is first compared with available knowledge of the circulation in the area, and when available, also with sea-surface temperature obtained from satellite imagery. It is concluded that the model appears to faithfully reproduce most of what is known, in particularly the upper mixed layer circulation. An analysis of the mean and eddy kinetic energy reveals that many of the mesoscale structures found in the area are recurrent. This is particularly true for the structures off the southern tip of Norway. Also in general, areas of strong mean and eddy kinetic energy are co-located. The exception is the area off the southern tip of Norway, where the eddy kinetic energy is much larger than its mean counterpart. An analysis of the relative vorticity reveals that the variability found is due to the occurrence of recurrent anticyclonic eddies. It is hypothesized that these eddies are generated due to an offshore veering of the Norwegian coastal current (NCC) as it reaches the eastern end of the Norwegian Trench plateau. Here it becomes a free jet, which is then vulnerable to either barotropic instability caused by the horizontal shear in the jet-like structure of the NCC at this point, or a baroclinic (frontal) instability. The latter may come into play when the NCC veers offshore and its relatively fresh water meets the inflowing saline water of Atlantic origin, a frontogenesis that may become strong enough for cyclogenesis to take place. Due to the depth-independent nature of the model-generated eddies, the barotropic instability is the most likely candidate. It remains to resolve the reason for the offshore veering of the NCC. The most likely candidate mechanisms are vortex squeezing or simply that the coastline curvature is large enough for the NCC to separate from the coast in a hydraulic sense.Responsible Editor: Phil Dyke     

一个创新研究——大气数值模式变量的物理分解及其在极端事件预报中的应用

大气温度、湿度、位势高度和风等数值模式变量可以物理分解为纬圈-时间平均的对称部分和时间平均的非对称部分,以及行星尺度瞬变扰动和天气尺度瞬变扰动等四个部分.区域持续性干旱、暴雨、热浪、低温和雨雪冰冻等极端天气事件与前期及同期数值模式中的行星尺度和天气尺度大气扰动系统之间呈现出密切的关系.瞬变扰动天气图可成为预报极端天气事件的新工具.本文在归纳本期9篇原创性文章的基础上,探讨大气变量物理分解后需要进一步研究的理论问题和应用前景.     

Channel sediment variability along a river: A case study of the Siret River (Romania)

The Siret River has the largest drainage basin (42 274 km²) in Romania. It gathers all the rivers from the eastern part of the Eastern Carpathians, a fact that causes marked asymmetry of the basin. This study is principally concerned with changes in the form of the longitudinal profile and the grain size variability introduced by the Carpathian tributaries. Channel sediment analyses considered the petrography, granulometry, and morphometry of the pebbles, relating these to the river bed and floodplain geometry and to some properties of the drainage basin. The following conclusions arise. The Siret River undergoes an intense regrading of its longitudinal profile, with marked aggradation between transects 24 and 26 (see Figures 1 and 2). This reflects selective accumulation of coarse material due to the massive contribution of the Carpathian tributaries. This phenomenon has been continuous throughout the Holocene, resulting in the gravel sheet formation of the Pericarpathian piedmont.     

On the study of control effectiveness and computational efficiency of reduced Saint-Venant model in model predictive control of open channel flow

Model predictive control (MPC) of open channel flow is becoming an important tool in water management. The complexity of the prediction model has a large influence on the MPC application in terms of control effectiveness and computational efficiency. The Saint-Venant equations, called SV model in this paper, and the Integrator Delay (ID) model are either accurate but computationally costly, or simple but restricted to allowed flow changes. In this paper, a reduced Saint-Venant (RSV) model is developed through a model reduction technique, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), on the SV equations. The RSV model keeps the main flow dynamics and functions over a large flow range but is easier to implement in MPC. In the test case of a modeled canal reach, the number of states and disturbances in the RSV model is about 45 and 16 times less than the SV model, respectively. The computational time of MPC with the RSV model is significantly reduced, while the controller remains effective. Thus, the RSV model is a promising means to balance the control effectiveness and computational efficiency.     

Sediment transport and resuspension due to combined motion of wave and current in the northern Adriatic Sea during a Bora event in January 2001: A numerical modelling study

The Adriatic Sea general circulation model coupled to a third generation wave model SWAN and a sediment transport model was implemented in the Adriatic Sea to study the dynamics of the sediment transport and resuspension in the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS) during the Bora event in January 2001. The bottom boundary layer (BBL) was resolved by the coupled model with high vertical resolution, and the mechanism of the wave–current interaction in the BBL was also represented in the model. The study found that, during the Bora event of 13–17 January 2001, large waves with significant wave height 2 m and period of 5 s were generated by strong winds in the northwestern shelf of the Adriatic where the direction of wave propagation was orthogonal to the current. The combined motion of the wave and current in the BBL increased the bottom stress over the western Adriatic shelf, resulting in stronger sediment resuspension there. Combining stronger bottom resuspension and strong upward vertical flux of resuspended sediments due to turbulent mixing, the model predicted that sediment concentration near the Po River was much higher than that predicted by the model run without wave forcing. The study also shows that wave–current interaction in the BBL reduced the western Adriatic Coastal Currents (WACCs) in the shallower north. It is concluded that wave forcing significantly changed the sediment distributions and increased the total horizontal fluxes over the western shelf. These results signified wave effect on sediment flux and distribution in the NAS, and suggested that waves cannot be neglected in the study of dynamics of sediment transport and resuspension in the shallow coastal seas. By including the tidal forcing in the coupled model, we also examined the effect of tides on the sediment transport dynamics in the NAS.     

Interrogating the time and processes of development of the Las Liebres rock glacier,central Chilean Andes,using a numerical flow model

The Las Liebres rock glacier is a large (~2.2 km long) Andean rock glacier whose internal composition and kinematics are known from previous studies. We investigate its development by posing and testing the following null hypothesis: the rock glacier has developed from a constant supply of debris and ground ice in periglacial conditions and resulting creep of the ice‐rock mixture. A rheological model was formulated based on recent advances in the study of ice‐rock mixture rheology, and calibrated on the known surface velocities and internal composition of the rock glacier. We show that the rock glacier viscosity is inversely related to both water and debris fractions, in agreement with recent field and theoretical studies of ice‐rock mixture rheology. Taking into account the possible variations in water fraction, the model was used to estimate the time spans of development (0.91–7.11 ka), rates of rock wall retreat (0.44–4.18 mm/a), and rates of ground ice formation (0.004–0.026 m/a) for the rock glacier. These results support the null hypothesis of a periglacial origin of the Las Liebres rock glacier. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monitoring and numerical modelling of riverbank erosion processes: a case study along the Cecina River (central Italy)

Riverbank retreat along a bend of the Cecina River, Tuscany (central Italy) was monitored across a near annual cycle (autumn 2003 to summer 2004) with the aim of better understanding the factors influencing bank changes and processes at a seasonal scale. Seven flow events occurred during the period of investigation, with the largest having an estimated return period of about 1·5 years. Bank simulations were performed by linking hydrodynamic, fluvial erosion, groundwater flow and bank stability models, for the seven flow events, which are representative of the typical range of hydrographs that normally occur during an annual cycle. The simulations allowed identification of (i) the time of onset and cessation of mass failure and fluvial erosion episodes, (ii) the contributions to total bank retreat made by specific fluvial erosion and mass‐wasting processes, and (iii) the causes of retreat. The results show that the occurrence of bank erosion processes (fluvial erosion, slide failure, cantilever failure) and their relative dominance differ significantly for each event, depending on seasonal hydrological conditions and initial bank geometry. Due to the specific planimetric configuration of the study bend, which steers the core of high velocity fluid away from the bank at higher flow discharges, fluvial erosion tends to occur during particular phases of the hydrograph. As a result fluvial erosion is ineffective at higher peak discharges, and depends more on the duration of more moderate discharges. Slide failures appear to be closely related to the magnitude of peak river stages, typically occurring in close proximity to the peak phase (preferentially during the falling limb, but in some cases even before the peak), while cantilever failures more typically occur in the late phase of the flow hydrograph, when they may be induced by the cumulative effects of any fluvial erosion. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hydrological system analysis and modelling of the Kara River basin (West Africa) using a lumped metric conceptual model

This paper discusses the analysis and modelling of the hydrological system of the basin of the Kara River, a transboundary river in Togo and Benin, as a necessary step towards sustainable water resources management. The methodological approach integrates the use of discharge parameters, flow duration curves and the lumped conceptual model IHACRES. A Sobol sensitivity analysis is performed and the model is calibrated by applying the shuffled complex evolution algorithm. Results show that discharge generation in three nested catchments of the basin is affected by landscape physical characteristics. The IHACRES model adequately simulates the rainfall–runoff dynamics in the basin with a mean modified Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency measure of 0.6. Modelling results indicate that parameters controlling rainfall transformation to effective rainfall are more sensitive than those routing the streamflow. This study provides insights into understanding the catchment’s hydrological system. Nevertheless, further investigations are required to better understand detailed runoff generation processes.

EDITOR M.C. Acreman; ASSOCIATE EDITOR N Verhoest     

Flood hazard mapping in Southern Brazil: a combination of flow frequency analysis and the HAND model

The Itajaí River basin is one of the areas most affected by flood-related disasters in Brazil. Flood hazard maps based on digital elevation models (DEM) are an important alternative in the absence of detailed hydrological data and for application in large areas. We developed a flood hazard mapping methodology by combining flow frequency analysis with the Height Above the Nearest Drainage (HAND) model – f2HAND – and applied it in three municipalities in the Itajaí River basin. The f2HAND performance was evaluated through comparison with observed 2011 flood extent maps. Model performance and sensitivity were tested for different DEM resolutions, return periods and streamflow data from stations located upstream and downstream on the main river. The flood hazard mapping with our combined approach matched 92% of the 2011 flood event. We found that the f2HAND model has low sensitivity to DEM resolution and high sensitivity to area threshold of channel initiation.     

Assessing metal toxicity in sediments using the equilibrium partitioning model and empirical sediment quality guidelines: A case study in the nearshore zone of the Bohai Sea,China

Surface sediments were collected from five nearshore (wastewater discharges, aquaculture facilities and a seaport) sites in Bohai Bay and Laizhou Bay, China. The equilibrium partitioning (EqP) model and empirical sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) were applied to assess the potential metal toxicity in the collected sediments. The results show that, based on the EqP model, 35% of stations exhibited potential metal toxicity. Several metals (Cu, Ni and Cr) exceeded the empirical SQGs (9–93% of the time), however these guidelines may not be suitable for use in the Bohai Sea owing to the background concentrations. The EqP model is a more useful method for assessing potential metal toxicity in Bohai Sea sediment than the empirical SQGs. Additionally, we have provided new understanding about methods for assessing sediment metal toxicity in the Bohai Sea that may be useful in other coastal areas in China.