Pattern Informatics and its Application for Optimal Forecasting of Large Earthquakes in Japan

Pattern Informatics (PI) technique can be used to detect precursory seismic activation or quiescence and make an earthquake forecast. Here we apply the PI method for optimal forecasting of large earthquakes in Japan, using the data catalogue maintained by the Japan Meteorological Agency. The PI method is tested to forecast large (magnitude m ≥ 5) earthquakes spanning the time period 1995–2004 in the Kobe region. Visual inspection and statistical testing show that the optimized PI method has forecasting skill, relative to the seismic intensity data often used as a standard null hypothesis. Moreover, we find in a retrospective forecast that the 1995 Kobe earthquake (m = 7.2) falls in a seismically anomalous area. Another approach to test the forecasting algorithm is to create a future potential map for large (m ≥ 5) earthquake events. This is illustrated using the Kobe and Tokyo regions for the forecast period 2000–2009. Based on the resulting Kobe map we point out several forecasted areas: The epicentral area of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the Wakayama area, the Mie area, and the Aichi area. The Tokyo forecast map was created prior to the occurrence of the Oct. 23, 2004 Niigata earthquake (m = 6.8) and the principal aftershocks with 5.0 ≤ m. We find that these events were close to in a forecasted area on the Tokyo map. The PI technique for regional seismicity observation substantiates an example showing considerable promise as an intermediate-term earthquake forecasting in Japan.     

Damage evaluation models of reinforced concrete buildings based on the damage statistics and simulated strong motions during the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu earthquake

We have tried to estimate the yield shear strengths of reinforced concrete (RC) buildings based on the damage statistics in Kobe surveyed after the Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan, earthquake of 1995 and the non‐linear response analyses for synthetic waveforms calculated from a complex seismic source and a three‐dimensional basin structure. First, a set of building models that represented the RC building stock in Kobe was constructed and plausible non‐linear multi‐degree‐of‐freedom models with four different numbers of stories were created based on the current seismic code and construction practice. For response analysis the damage criterion and the strength distribution should be assumed a priori. When the damage ratios for these standard models were calculated it was found that the damage ratios were so high that we had to increase the average yield strengths in order to match the calculated damage ratios to those observed. After searching the best models it was found that the estimated average yield strengths should be much higher than those based on the code, especially for low‐rise buildings. Using this set of building models we succeeded in reproducing the belt‐shaped area with high damage ratios in Kobe. One can apply the proposed methodology to different countries if there is enough damage data, strong motion records, and building statistics. If there is sparse damage data at several locations only, then our models can be adjusted to reproduce observed damage data and used for damage prediction as a first‐order approximation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

紫坪铺水库沉积物Sr同位素及元素组成变化对2008年汶川大地震的响应

2008年5月12日里氏7.9级汶川大地震引发了超过56000多个山体滑坡,在龙门山地区产生巨量的碎屑物质,极大地影响了流域的地表过程.然而,地震对河流碎屑物质组成及沉积过程的改变却知之甚少.紫坪铺水库超高沉积速率（平均74 cm/a）的沉积物完整记录了汶川地震前后的沉积过程,为研究2008年汶川地震对流域地表物质搬运及沉积物组成的影响提供了宝贵的素材.本研究测试了汶川地震前后紫坪铺水库沉积物的Sr同位素以及元素组成,结果表明其在地震之后均发生了显著变化.震后沉积物⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr与Rb/Sr比值同步降低,并且和沉积物化学蚀变指数（CIA）呈正相关性,反映了地震滑坡导致的新鲜物质对沉积物的贡献,特别是地震后强径流的2010—2011年.地震前后沉积物组成的差异性,为利用沉积物反演水文气候和构造事件及其环境效应提供了基础和潜在指标.     

Estimation of strong motion distribution in the 1995 Kobe earthquake based on building damage data

The 1995 Kobe earthquake caused unprecedented damage to buildings and civil infrastructures in the city of Kobe and its surrounding areas. In order to evaluate the structural damage in this area due to the earthquake, it is important to estimate the distribution of earthquake ground motion. However, since the number of strong ground motion records is not enough in the heavily damaged areas, it is necessary to estimate the distribution using other data sources. In this paper, the fragility curves for low‐rise residential buildings were constructed using the recorded motions and the building damage data from the intensive field survey by the AIJ and CPIJ group. The fragility curves obtained were then employed to estimate the strong motion distribution in the district level for Kobe and the surrounding areas during the earthquake. The results may be useful to investigate the various damages caused by the earthquake. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

ANALYSIS OF AMPLIFICATION CHARACTERISTICS OF GROUND MOTIONS IN THE HEAVILY DAMAGED BELT ZONE DURING THE 1995 HYOGO-KEN NANBU EARTHQUAKE

To estimate the amplification characteristics of ground motions in the heavily damaged belt zone in Kobe City during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, 3D wave propagation analyses of a 2D deep irregular underground structure model with a vertical discontinuity were performed at an early stage as a preliminary and qualitative study. The hyperelement method was applied to the analyses for incident plane waves expected from the wavefields due to the source mechanism. The observation records at Kobe University of the rock site were used as control motions. The ground motions on the engineering bedrock (assumed to be on the free surface of the Osaka group layers having a shear velocity of 500 m/s) and at ground surface were calculated. The effects of the deep irregular underground structure and shallow surface layers on the ground motion amplification are discussed. Although there are qualifications due to the uncertain characteristics of the input rock motion and shear wave velocities of the underground structure, the analytical results show that the ground motion in the heavily damaged belt zone were amplified due to the focusing effect of the deep irregular underground structure as well as the shallow surface layers, and that the calculated peak ground acceleration (PGA) distribution coincided closely with the distributions of structural damage. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precursory Activation of Seismicity in Advance of the Kobe, 1995, M = 7.2 Earthquake

—A succession of precursory changes of seismicity characteristic to earthquakes of magnitude 7.0–7.5 occurred in advance of the Kobe 1995, M = 7.2, earthquake. Using the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) regional catalog of earthquakes, the M8 prediction algorithm (Keilies-Borko and Kossobokov, 1987) recognizes the time of increased probability, TIP, for an earthquake with magnitude 7.0–7.5 from July 1991 through June 1996. The prediction is limited to a circle of 280-km radius centered at 33.5°N, 133.75°E. The broad area of intermediate-term precursory rise of activity encompasses a 175 by 175-km square, where the sequence of earthquakes exhibited a specific intermittent behavior. The square is outlined as the second-approximation reduced area of alarm by the "Mendocino Scenario" algorithm, MSc (Kossobokov et al., 1990). Moreover, since the M8 alarm starts, there were no swarms recorded except the one on 9–26 Nov. 1994, located at 34.9°N, 135.4°E. Time, location, and magnitude of the 1995 Kobe earthquake fulfill the M8-MSc predictions. Its aftershock zone ruptured the 54-km segment of the fault zone marked by the swarm, directly in the corner of the reduced alarm area. The Kobe 1995 epicenter is less than 50 km from the swarm and it coincides with the epicenter of the M 3.5 foreshock which took place 11 hours in advance.     

Nonlinear response of surface soil and NTT building due to soil–structure interaction during the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake

The 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake brought about enormous damage to structures in the Hanshin and Awaji areas. In this paper the importance of investigating the relationship between ground motion and structural damage is pointed out.

Strong seismic motion was observed at the NTT (Nippon Telegraph and Telephone) Building during this earthquake. The structural damage to this building was relatively slight. In order to evaluate the relationship between ground motion and structural damage, it is necessary to assess the effects of the soil–structure interaction. In this study, the seismic response of the building and of the surface soil were evaluated by means of a nonlinear soil–structure interaction analysis using FEM.

It was found that, the nonlinearity of surface soil near the building had a great effect on the soil–structure interaction, especially the rocking of the building.     

大安台形变与山西运城地震

分析了１９８６年１１月山西运城地区小震群活动前大安地震台ＪＢ型水平摆倾斜仪出现的异常情况。认为异常的表现形式为大速率的倾斜变化、倾向变化及固体潮汐的严重畸变等，叙述了根据这些异常变化预报该次地震后运城地区的地震活动的情况。     

Land transformation and pond sediment information

Five years of observations on sedimentation rates in two ponds located near transformed land areas in the Kobe district of central Japan have shown the relationship between sedimentation and development during land transformation. One of the ponds observed has artificial land transformation in its drainage area (KR), whereas the other does not (KN). The sedimentation rate in the pond without artificial land transformation is roughly proportional to the rainfall intensity, whereas in the pond with land transformation it is related to change in the transformed area as well as the rainfall intensity. The relative sedimentation rate (sedimentation rate divided by the catchment area and rainfall intensity) is also related to loss on ignition and grain density; large relative sedimentation rates correspond to low loss on ignition and high grain density, suggesting that these factors are very sensitive to land transformation. Changes in catchment factors, which indicate the topographical and hydrological conditions in the catchment area, are inversely proportional to change in the ratio of the reclaimed to the natural area; this is indicative of change in the erodibility of the surface material in the catchment area. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of the ground profile on the reduction of earthquake motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor during the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake

During the 1995 Hyogoken Nambu earthquake in Kobe, the ground motion at the filled man-made islands in the Kobe harbor was not as severe as that at the mainland. The building damage was also less compared to that on the mainland. It was found by comparative study of earthquake records that the magnitude of acceleration response on the ground surface decreases at the islands as opposed to the mainland. One dimensional effective stress analysis is adopted in this study. Input data has been generated from test results, e.g. the SPT N-value by standard penetration test and shear wave velocity V_s by PS logging. Results obtained by the analyses showed good agreement with the observed records, which is an indication of the suitability of the adopted analysis procedure. From this study, the followings are concluded. By the increase of SPT N-value of the filled layers, liquefaction near ground surface is restrained and damage modes such as ejection of water and soil can be prevented. Since the ground profile at the islands is that considerably soft filled layer and marine clay layers, etc. are present and the thickness of the surface layer is large, the initial natural period of the ground is above 1 s and the natural period is elongated further under the earthquake excitation, which is deemed to be the principal reason for the reduction of the earthquake motion at the ground surface.     

A geological study of the epicentral area of the April 20(21), 2006 Olyutorskii earthquake

Primary and secondary earthquake effects were investigated (surface breakage and felt effects in the villages of Tilichiki, Korf, and Khailino) in the epicentral area of a large earthquake occurring in northern Kamchatka Krai. The primary effects include an extended surface break that can be followed for a length of about 140 km. The secondary (gravitational and vibrational) effects include soil slides and minor rockfalls, snow flows on slopes, resonant cracks, soil liquefaction phenomena consisting of mud cones, mud gryphons, and discharges of soil from cracks. Detailed maps showing the main types of earthquake surface effects have been made. Paleoseismic data show traces of several large earthquakes that have occurred in the Olyutorskii earthquake zone. Radio carbon dating of soil samples from these paleoseismic scarps revealed a history of great earthquakes occurring in Koryakia. In all, four seismic events with magnitudes about that of the 2006 Olyutorskii earthquake have occurred there during 8000 years, the return period of such events being 1000–2500 years.     

南北地震带中南段典型强震震前跨断层形变特征分析

基于南北地震带中南段18个不同震级的典型震例震前跨断层形变观测异常特征, 结合《中国震例》已有研究结果, 定性分析了各地震震前跨断层形变观测异常的类型和时、 空变化特征。 结果表明, 对于8.0级以下地震, 震前2~3年异常数量明显增多、 震前1~1年半左右异常达到峰值、 震前部分场地异常恢复的特征对区域强震预测在时间上具有一定的中期或短期前兆意义; 震前跨断层场地异常震中距和异常类型对强震震级具有一定的预测意义; 无论是跨断层异常类型、 空间分布, 还是异常的时间进程特征均与区域强震发生地点没有显著的统计关系。 汶川M_S8.0地震前出现趋势异常多、 中短期异常较少、 外围异常多和中心异常少的特征; 异常最早出现在7~8年前, 震前3年左右明显增加, 震前部分异常恢复; 异常以趋势异常和速度变化为主, 没有破年变异常。     

隐伏活断层未来地表破裂带宽度与位错量初步研究

采用Okada(1992 )有关地震断层地表位移的计算方法和程序 ,依据《建筑抗震设计规范》(GB 5 0 0 11- 2 0 0 1) ,推导了隐伏活断层突然错动产生地表破裂带的临界值 ,即在相隔 5m的水平上 ,位移差超过 0 1m。初步讨论了隐伏活断层地表破裂带随埋深、倾角、断裂力学性质和断面位错量的变化特点。结果表明 :对于隐伏正断层 ,地表破裂带宽度随覆盖层埋深的增加表现出非线性特点 ,具有从小到大 ,再变小的特点 ;地表破裂带位错量峰值随埋深线性递减。在其他参数不变的情况下 ,隐伏正断层倾角越小 ,地表破裂带越偏向下盘 ,并且 ,地表破裂带的宽度也变小。与隐伏正断层相比 ,隐伏走滑断层地表位移差随埋深衰减更快。随着隐伏活断层断面上位错量的增加 ,地表破裂带宽度会显著变宽 ,位错量也随之增大。这些认识和计算结果为城市规划、各种生命线工程和建 (构 )筑物的跨断层设防 ,提供了可以参考的依据     

唐山地震前的某些地震前兆

本文论述了唐山地震前的某些地震前兆现象,并对它们产生的原因进行了讨论。论述的第一种地震前兆现象是唐山地震前的震中迁移。在震前共显示了三条迁移路线,即从阴山西段向唐山的迁移,从辽东向唐山的迁移和沿华夏系构造向唐山的迁移。其迁移路线的交汇区在唐山地区。第二种是唐山大震前沿阴山构造带和华夏系构造带中小地震的成带活动,这两个中小地震活动带的交汇区在唐山地区。文中对震中迁移的原因和大震前中小地震成带状分布的原因以及带状分布的交汇区易于发生大震的原因进行了讨论。文中指出,中小地震的成带活动意味着这些带内地壳中一些地段上断层盘间的粘结力减弱或有流体逸出地表,这对交汇区震源的发震将有促进作用。例如在震源断层盘欲前进的方向上,地壳内如有流体逸出,则有利于断层盘向流体逸出地区前进,从而促使地震发生,在震源断层欲离开的部位上,如岩石粘结力减弱,也有利于断层错动而发震。据此我们把地震前兆分为主动前兆和被动前兆两类,主动前兆是它对震源发震有影响的前兆;被动前兆则仅是震源各组成部分运动的一种后果表现。文中对中国大陆于某些大震前出现的很长的地震成带活动进行了成因分类,一类是地表可见的大断裂带引起的中小地震活动;另一类是玄武岩层和上地幔中大断裂蠕滑对上部花岗岩层中地震的触发。由于玄武岩层和上地幔物质的力学性质近于塑性且相对均匀,所以其内的大断裂较长较直,这可能就是中国大陆内某些地震沿直线分布很长、其间可跨越不同的地质构造单元的原因。     

Electromagnetic anomalies associated with 1995 Kobe earthquake

Occurrences of anomalous electro-magnetic phenomena at varied frequency ranges, covering ELF to VHF, have been reported in relation to the 17 January 1995 Kobe earthquake (M7.2), by several independent research groups. Prominent pre-seismic peaks, which could have been emitted from the focal area, were observed on 9-10 January in ELF, VLF, LF and HF ranges. Whether these changes were truly related to the earthquake is not certain, because atmospheric (thunderbolt discharge) activities also peaked on 9-10 January. The nomalous changes were markedly enhanced toward the catastrophe in agreement with many reports on unusual radio/TV noise. Anomalous transmission of man-made electromagnetic waves in VLF and VHF ranges was also detected from a few days before the earthquake, indicating the possibility that the ionosphere above the focal zone was disturbed at the final stage of the earthquake preparation process.     

In situ stress measurements in NIED boreholes in and around the fault zone near the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake, Japan

Abstract The 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu (Kobe) earthquake, M 7.2, occurred along the north-east–south-west trending Rokko–Awaji Fault system. Three boreholes of 1001 m, 1313 m and 1838 m deep were drilled in the vicinity of the epicenter of the earthquake. Each borehole is located at characteristic sites in relation to active faults and the aftershock distribution. In particular, the Nojima–Hirabayashi borehole [Hirabayashi National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) drilling] in Awaji Island was drilled to a depth of 1838 m, approximately 320 m southeast from the surface rupture of the Nojima Fault, and it crosses fracture zones below a depth of 1140 m. In situ stress measurements by the hydraulic fracturing method were conducted in these boreholes within 1.5 years after the earthquake. Measurement results suggest the following: (i) Differential stress values are very small, approximately 10 MPa at a depth of 1000 m at each site; (ii) the orientation of maximum horizontal compression is almost the same in the boreholes, perpendicular to the surface trace of the faults, north-west–south-east; (iii) fault types estimated from the state of stress differ among these sites; and (iv) the differential stress value just beneath the fault fracture zone decreases abruptly to one-half of that above the fault zone in the Hirabayashi NIED drilling. These features support the idea that the shear stress along the Rokko–Awaji Fault system decreased to a low level just after the earthquake.     

1976年唐山地震前后的重力变化和震区莫霍面的变形

本文分析了1976年唐山地震前后十年的流动重力测量资料及其观测精度,通过降噪试验和可靠性分析,证实了重力趋势性异常变化的存在;分析了引起重力变化的物理因素,采用时域带通滤波的方法对资料进行预处理,用样条函数求得了重力测值的拟合曲面和分析区域等间距网点异常变化值,借助于窗口滑动求均方法滤去浅部短波长密度扰动的重力效应,根据剩余重力异常场作约束反演,发现震前、震时和震后该区莫霍面附近岩层可能出现过变形,尤其是震前数年,变形幅度可能更大。看来,莫霍面附近岩层的变形可能是造成壳内应力集中并孕育唐山地震的重要原因。      

Nonlinear identification of the soil response at Dahan downhole array site during the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake

Records of the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake, provided by the Dahan downhole array were analyzed, and nonlinear hysteretic stress–strain relations in the soil layers were estimated by the method previously used for studying the response of soils during the 1995 Kobe and the 2000 Tottori earthquakes. The obtained models of the soil behavior were applied for evaluating changes of the shear moduli in the soil layers and for the nonlinear identification of the soil behavior at Dahan site during the Chi–Chi earthquake. We found that reduction of the shear moduli in the soil layers did not exceed 5%, and the soil response was virtually linear. The content of the nonlinear components in the soil response was about 5% of the intensity of the response, and it was mostly due to the odd-order nonlinearities. A similarity in the stress–strain relations describing the behavior of soils during the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the 2000 Tottori earthquake, and the 1999 Chi–Chi earthquake was found, which indicates the possibility to describe the behavior of similar types of soils at different sites by similar stress–strain relations and predict soil behavior in future earthquakes.     

Probabilistic assessment for seismic performance of port structures

Past experience has shown that ports are often susceptible to severe damage during earthquakes. From field damage data of 1995 Kobe earthquake, it is observed that the seismic behavior of port structures shows significant variability. In this study, a 2D numerical model, representing PC1 berth located in Port Island, Kobe and damaged in the 1995 Kobe earthquake, has been developed and used to simulate seismic behavior. It has been found that the uncertainties in the friction angle and the shear modulus of reclaimed soil contribute most to the variability of the residual horizontal displacement (RHD) response of the quay wall of port structures. To investigate the propagation of uncertainties of soil–structure system to the quay wall, a tornado diagram and a first-order second-moment analysis are used. Uncertainty of ground motions has also been investigated. Based on the results, design considerations have been provided.     

阪神地震对大城市防震减灾工作的启示

１９９５年１月１７日，日本关西兵库县南部发生７．２级地震（阪神地震），神户一带遭受巨大损失，人员伤亡惨重，这次地震是自唐山地震之后近２０年来，世界上最引人注目的一次地震事件。本文首先从地震预报的角度，简要地介绍了阪神地震前观测到的中短期前兆异常，包括震群活动、地震空区，水中氯离子浓度增加以及低频电磁辐射等，分析了阪神地区的地震危险性，指出在中期预测圈定的强震危险区，加强短临预测的跟踪，是最佳地震对策，也是起到减轻地震灾害，取得实际御防效果的基础．同时提出推进工程抗震研究，发展城市抗震工程学，提高城市综合防御地震危害的必要性。最后，文中对近期我国东部震情作了简要分析，并对强化监测，努力捕捉短临前兆信息，提出了相应的建议。