Large-scale numerical simulation of groundwater flow and solute transport in discretely-fractured crystalline bedrock

A large-scale fluid flow and solute transport model was developed for the crystalline bedrock at Olkiluoto Island, Finland, which is considered as potential deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. Site characterization showed that the main flow pathways in the low-permeability crystalline bedrock on the island are 13 subhorizontal fracture zones. Compared to other sites investigated in the context of deep disposal of spent nuclear fuel, most deep boreholes drilled at Olkiluoto are not packed-off but are instead left open. These open boreholes intersect the main fracture zones and create hydraulic connections between them, thus modifying groundwater flow. The combined impact of fracture zones and open boreholes on groundwater flow is simulated at the scale of the island. The modeling approach couples a geomodel that represents the fracture zones and boreholes with a numerical model that simulates fluid flow and solute transport. The geometry of the fracture zones that are intersected by boreholes is complex, and the 3D geomodel was therefore constructed with a tetrahedral mesh. The geomodel was imported into the numerical model to simulate a pumping test conducted on Olkiluoto Island. The pumping test simulation demonstrates that fracture-borehole intersections must be accurately discretized, because they strongly control groundwater flow. The tetrahedral mesh provides an accurate representation of these intersections. The calibrated flow model was then used for illustrative scenarios of radionuclide migration to show the impact of fracture zones on solute transport once the boreholes were backfilled. These mass transport simulations constitute base cases for future predictive analyses and sensitivity studies, since they represent key processes to take into consideration for repository performance assessment.     

Convergence of Groundwater Discharge through the Hyporheic Zone of Streams

Significant attention has been given to hyporheic water fluxes induced by hydromorphologic processes in streambeds and the effects they have on stream ecology. However, the impact of hyporheic fluxes on regional groundwater flow discharge zones as well as the interaction of these flows are much less investigated. The groundwater-hyporheic interactive flow not only governs solute mass and heat transport in streams but also controls the retention of solute and contamination following the discharge of deep groundwater, such as naturally occurring solutes and leakage from geological waste disposal facilities. Here, we applied a physically based modeling approach combined with extensive hydrologic, geologic and geographical data to investigate the effect of hyporheic flow on groundwater discharge in the Krycklan catchment, located in a boreal landscape in Sweden. Regional groundwater modeling was conducted using COMSOL Multiphysics by considering geologic heterogeneity and infiltration constraint of the groundwater circulation intensity. Moreover, the hyporheic flow was analyzed using an exact spectral solution accounting for the fluctuating streambed topography and superimposed with the regional groundwater flow. By comparing the discharge flow fields with and without consideration of hyporheic flows, we found that the divergence of the discharge was substantially enhanced and the distribution of the travel times of groundwater was significantly shifted toward shorter times due to the presence of hyporheic flow. Particularly important is that the groundwater flow paths contract near the streambed interface due to the hyporheic flow, which leads to a phenomenon that we name “fragmentation” of coherent areas of groundwater upwelling in pinhole-shaped stream tubes.     

Imaging Hydrological Processes in Headwater Riparian Seeps with Time‐Lapse Electrical Resistivity

Delineating hydrologic and pedogenic factors influencing groundwater flow in riparian zones is central in understanding pathways of water and nutrient transport. In this study, we combined two‐dimensional time‐lapse electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) (depth of investigation approximately 2 m) with hydrometric monitoring to examine hydrological processes in the riparian area of FD‐36, a small (0.4 km²) agricultural headwater basin in the Valley and Ridge region of east‐central Pennsylvania. We selected two contrasting study sites, including a seep with groundwater discharge and an adjacent area lacking such seepage. Both sites were underlain by a fragipan at 0.6 m. We then monitored changes in electrical resistivity, shallow groundwater, and nitrate‐N concentrations as a series of storms transitioned the landscape from dry to wet conditions. Time‐lapse ERI revealed different resistivity patterns between seep and non‐seep areas during the study period. Notably, the seep displayed strong resistivity reductions (～60%) along a vertically aligned region of the soil profile, which coincided with strong upward hydraulic gradients recorded in a grid of nested piezometers (0.2‐ and 0.6‐m depth). These patterns suggested a hydraulic connection between the seep and the nitrate‐rich shallow groundwater system below the fragipan, which enabled groundwater and associated nitrate‐N to discharge through the fragipan to the surface. In contrast, time‐lapse ERI indicated no such connections in the non‐seep area, with infiltrated rainwater presumably perched above the fragipan. Results highlight the value of pairing time‐lapse ERI with hydrometric and water quality monitoring to illuminate possible groundwater and nutrient flow pathways to seeps in headwater riparian areas.     

Induced Temperature Gradients to Examine Groundwater Flowpaths in Open Boreholes

Techniques for characterizing the hydraulic properties and groundwater flow processes of aquifers are essential to design hydrogeologic conceptual models. In this study, rapid time series temperature profiles within open‐groundwater wells in fractured rock were measured using fiber optic distributed temperature sensing (FO‐DTS). To identify zones of active groundwater flow, two continuous electrical heating cables were installed alongside a FO‐DTS cable to heat the column of water within the well and to create a temperature difference between the ambient temperature of the groundwater in the aquifer and that within the well. Additional tests were performed to examine the effects of pumping on hydraulic fracture interconnectivity around the well and to identify zones of increased groundwater flow. High‐ and low‐resolution FO‐DTS cable configurations were examined to test the sensitivities of the technique and compared with downhole video footage and geophysical logging to confirm the zones of active groundwater flow. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the usefulness of this new technique for rapid characterization of fracture zones in open boreholes. The combination of the FO‐DTS and heating cable has excellent scope as a rapid appraisal tool for borehole construction design and improving hydrogeologic conceptual models.     

Analytical Solutions of Travel Time to a Pumping Well with Variable Evapotranspiration

Analytical solutions of groundwater travel time to a pumping well in an unconfined aquifer have been developed in previous studies, however, the change in evapotranspiration was not considered. Here, we develop a mathematical model of unconfined flow toward a discharge well with redistribution of groundwater evapotranspiration for travel time analysis. Dependency of groundwater evapotranspiration on the depth to water table is described using a linear formula with an extinction depth. Analytical solutions of groundwater level and travel time are obtained. For a typical hypothetical example, these solutions perfectly agree with the numerical simulation results based on MODFLOW and MODPATH. As indicated in a dimensionless framework, a lumped parameter which is proportional to the pumping rate controls the distributions of groundwater evapotranspiration rate and the travel time along the radial direction.     

Ground water flow analysis of a mid-Atlantic outer coastal plain watershed, Virginia, U.S.A

Models for ground water flow (MODFLOW) and particle tracking (MODPATH) were used to determine ground water flow patterns, principal ground water discharge and recharge zones, and estimates of ground water travel times in an unconfined ground water system of an outer coastal plain watershed on the Delmarva Peninsula, Virginia. By coupling recharge and discharge zones within the watershed, flowpath analysis can provide a method to locate and implement specific management strategies within a watershed to reduce ground water nitrogen loading to surface water. A monitoring well network was installed in Eyreville Creek watershed, a first-order creek, to determine hydraulic conductivities and spatial and temporal variations in hydraulic heads for use in model calibration. Ground water flow patterns indicated the convergence of flow along the four surface water features of the watershed; primary discharge areas were in the nontidal portions of the watershed. Ground water recharge zones corresponded to the surface water features with minimal development of a regional ground water system. Predicted ground water velocities varied between < 0.01 to 0.24 m/day, with elevated values associated with discharge areas and areas of convergence along surface water features. Some ground water residence times exceeded 100 years, although average residence times ranged between 16 and 21 years; approximately 95% of the ground water resource would reflect land use activities within the last 50 years.     

Anomalous behaviour of specific electrical conductivity at a karst spring induced by variable catchment boundaries: the case of the Podstenjšek spring,Slovenia

Anomalous behaviour of specific electrical conductivity (SEC) was observed at a karst spring in Slovenia during 26 high‐flow events in an 18‐month monitoring period. A conceptual model explaining this anomalous SEC variability is presented and reproduced by numerical modelling, and the practical relevance for source protection zoning is discussed. After storm rainfall, discharge increases rapidly, which is typical for karst springs. SEC displays a first maximum during the rising limb of the spring hydrograph, followed by a minimum indicating the arrival of freshly infiltrated water, often confirmed by increased levels of total organic carbon (TOC). The anomalous behaviour starts after this SEC minimum, when SEC rises again and remains elevated during the entire high‐flow period, typically 20–40 µS/cm above the baseflow value. This is explained by variable catchment boundaries: When the water level in the aquifer rises, the catchment expands, incorporating zones of groundwater with higher SEC, caused by higher unsaturated zone thickness and subtle lithologic changes. This conceptual model has been checked by numerical investigations. A generalized finite‐difference model including high‐conductivity cells representing the conduit network (“discrete‐continuum approach”) was set up to simulate the observed behaviour of the karst system. The model reproduces the shifting groundwater divide and the nearly simultaneous increase of discharge and SEC during high‐flow periods. The observed behaviour is relevant for groundwater source protection zoning, which requires reliable delineation of catchment areas. Anomalous behaviour of SEC can point to variable catchment boundaries that can be checked by tracer tests during different hydrologic conditions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying the flow pattern and natural recharge at a strategic groundwater resource in the Dornogobi Province,Mongolia

The strategic project of economic development in the Dornogobi Province in Mongolia is dependent on water supply. Thus a comprehensive hydrogeological characterization was focused on the Upper Cretaceous multi-aquifer system north of Sainshand city. A conceptual model was developed to discover the groundwater flow pattern essential to correct the setting of the numerical model of groundwater flow created using MODFLOW to assess the natural recharge of the aquifer. The conceptualization was based on geological and hydrogeological characterization. However, the evaluation of hydrochemistry proved to be the key factor revealing the principal feature of the groundwater flow pattern, which is the presence of preferential flow zones. These zones allow for intensive transfer of relatively fresh Na(Mg,Ca)?HCO₃-dominated groundwater into discharge areas, where it leaks into the Quaternary aquifer. The numerical model suggested an enormous natural recharge of 22 100 m³/d, originating in 64% of the preferential flow zones.     

Hydrodynamic modelling for groundwater flow through permeable reactive barriers

Hydrodynamic modelling for analysis of groundwater flow through permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) is addressed in this paper. Permeable reactive barriers constitute an emerging technology for in situ remediation of groundwater contamination and have many advantages over the traditional ex situ treatment methods. The transport domains during groundwater flow through PRBs often may involve free‐flow or non‐porous sections. To model the fluid mobility efficiently in such situations, the free and porous flow zones (PRBs) must be studied in conjunction with each other. The present paper is devoted to the analysis of groundwater flow through combined free flow domains and PRBs. The free‐flow regime is modelled using the Navier–Stokes equations whereas the permeable barriers are simulated by either the Darcy or the Brinkman equation. In order to couple the governing equations of motions, well‐posed mathematical formulations of matching boundary conditions are prescribed at the interface between the free‐groundwater‐flow zones and the permeable barriers. Combination of the Navier–Stokes equations with the Brinkman equation is more straightforward owing to their analogous forms. However, the Navier–Stokes and Darcy equations are incompatible mathematically and cannot be linked directly. The problem is resolved in this paper by invoking validated hydrodynamical expressions for describing the flow behaviour at the interfaces between free‐flow and porous zones. Three schemes for the analyses of fluid flow in combined domains are applied to the case of groundwater flow through permeable reactive barriers and different model results are compared. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Semi‐Arid Aquifer Responses to Forest Restoration Treatments and Climate Change

The purpose of this study was to develop an interpretive groundwater‐flow model to assess the impacts that planned forest restoration treatments and anticipated climate change will have on large regional, deep (>400 m), semi‐arid aquifers. Simulations were conducted to examine how tree basal area reductions impact groundwater recharge from historic conditions to 2099. Novel spatial analyses were conducted to determine areas and rates of potential increases in groundwater recharge. Changes in recharge were applied to the model by identifying zones of basal area reduction from planned forest restoration treatments and applying recharge‐change factors to these zones. Over a 10‐year period of forest restoration treatment, a 2.8% increase in recharge to one adjacent groundwater basin (the Verde Valley sub‐basin) was estimated, compared to conditions that existed from 2000 to 2005. However, this increase in recharge was assumed to quickly decline after treatment due to regrowth of vegetation and forest underbrush and their associated increased evapotranspiration. Furthermore, simulated increases in groundwater recharge were masked by decreases in water levels, stream baseflow, and groundwater storage resulting from surface water diversions and groundwater pumping. These results indicate that there is an imbalance between water supply and demand in this regional, semi‐arid aquifer. Current water management practices may not be sustainable into the far future and comprehensive action should be taken to minimize this water budget imbalance.     

Data‐Driven Approach for Analyzing Hydrogeology and Groundwater Quality Across Multiple Scales

Recent trends of assimilating water well records into statewide databases provide a new opportunity for evaluating spatial dynamics of groundwater quality and quantity. However, these datasets are scarcely rigorously analyzed to address larger scientific problems because they are of lower quality and massive. We develop an approach for utilizing well databases to analyze physical and geochemical aspects of groundwater systems, and apply it to a multiscale investigation of the sources and dynamics of chloride (Cl^?) in the near‐surface groundwater of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan. Nearly 500,000 static water levels (SWLs) were critically evaluated, extracted, and analyzed to delineate long‐term, average groundwater flow patterns using a nonstationary kriging technique at the basin‐scale (i.e., across the entire peninsula). Two regions identified as major basin‐scale discharge zones—the Michigan and Saginaw Lowlands—were further analyzed with regional‐ and local‐scale SWL models. Groundwater valleys (“discharge” zones) and mounds (“recharge” zones) were identified for all models, and the proportions of wells with elevated Cl^? concentrations in each zone were calculated, visualized, and compared. Concentrations in discharge zones, where groundwater is expected to flow primarily upwards, are consistently and significantly higher than those in recharge zones. A synoptic sampling campaign in the Michigan Lowlands revealed concentrations generally increase with depth, a trend noted in previous studies of the Saginaw Lowlands. These strong, consistent SWL and Cl^? distribution patterns across multiple scales suggest that a deep source (i.e., Michigan brines) is the primary cause for the elevated chloride concentrations observed in discharge areas across the peninsula.     

Hydraulic subsurface measurements and hydrodynamic modelling as indicators for groundwater flow systems in the Rotondo granite,Central Alps (Switzerland)

Regional groundwater flow in high mountainous terrain is governed by a multitude of factors such as geology, topography, recharge conditions, structural elements such as fracturation and regional fault zones as well as man‐made underground structures. By means of a numerical groundwater flow model, we consider the impact of deep underground tunnels and of an idealized major fault zone on the groundwater flow systems within the fractured Rotondo granite. The position of the free groundwater table as response to the above subsurface structures and, in particular, with regard to the influence of spatial distributed groundwater recharge rates is addressed. The model results show significant unsaturated zones below the mountain ridges in the study area with a thickness of up to several hundred metres. The subsurface galleries are shown to have a strong effect on the head distribution in the model domain, causing locally a reversal of natural head gradients. With respect to the position of the catchment areas to the tunnel and the corresponding type of recharge source for the tunnel inflows (i.e. glaciers or recent precipitation), as well as water table elevation, the influence of spatial distributed recharge rates is compared to uniform recharge rates. Water table elevations below the well exposed high‐relief mountain ridges are observed to be more sensitive to changes in groundwater recharge rates and permeability than below ridges with less topographic relief. In the conceptual framework of the numerical simulations, the model fault zone has less influence on the groundwater table position, but more importantly acts as fast flow path for recharge from glaciated areas towards the subsurface galleries. This is in agreement with a previous study, where the imprint of glacial recharge was observed in the environmental isotope composition of groundwater sampled in the subsurface galleries. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and tritium (3H) to estimate groundwater age and flow velocity in Hohhot Basin,China

The concentrations of chlorofluorocarbons (CFC‐11, CFC‐12 and CFC‐113) and tritium (³H) content in groundwater were used to date groundwater age, delineate groundwater flow systems and estimate flow velocity in the Hohhot basin. The estimated young groundwater age is fallen in the bracket of 21 ~ 50 a and indicates the presence of two different age profiles and flow systems in the shallow groundwater system. Older age waters occur under the topographically low areas, where the aquifer is double‐layer aquifer system consisting of shallow unconfined‐semi‐confined aquifer and deep confined aquifer. This reflects long flow paths associated with regional flow. Groundwater (range from 21 to 34 years) in the north piedmont and east hilly areas, where the aquifer is a single‐layer aquifer consisting of alluvial fans, are typically younger than those in the low areas. The combination of CFCs dating with hydrogeological information indicates that both local and regional flow systems are present at the basin. The regional groundwater flow mainly flows from the north and east to the southwest, the local groundwater flow system occurs nearby the Hohhot city. The mean regional groundwater flow velocity of the shallow groundwater is estimated about 0.73 km/a. These findings can aid in refining hydrogeological conceptual model of the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characteristics of preferential flow and groundwater discharge to Shingobee Lake,Minnesota, USA

Small‐scale heterogeneities and large changes in hydraulic gradient over short distances can create preferential groundwater flow paths that discharge to lakes. A 170 m² grid within an area of springs and seeps along the shore of Shingobee Lake, Minnesota, was intensively instrumented to characterize groundwater‐lake interaction within underlying organic‐rich soil and sandy glacial sediments. Seepage meters in the lake and piezometer nests, installed at depths of 0·5 and 1·0 m below the ground surface and lakebed, were used to estimate groundwater flow. Statistical analysis of hydraulic conductivity estimated from slug tests indicated a range from 21 to 4·8 × 10^?3 m day^?1 and small spatial correlation. Although hydraulic gradients are overall upward and toward the lake, surface water that flows onto an area about 2 m onshore results in downward flow and localized recharge. Most flow occurred within 3 m of the shore through more permeable pathways. Seepage meter and Darcy law estimates of groundwater discharge agreed well within error limits. In the small area examined, discharge decreases irregularly with distance into the lake, indicating that sediment heterogeneity plays an important role in the distribution of groundwater discharge. Temperature gradients showed some relationship to discharge, but neither temperature profiles nor specific electrical conductance could provide a more convenient method to map groundwater–lake interaction. These results suggest that site‐specific data may be needed to evaluate local water budget and to protect the water quality and quantity of discharge‐dominated lakes. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modification of the SWAT model to simulate regional groundwater flow using a multicell aquifer

The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been widely used and thoroughly tested in many places in the world. The application of the SWAT model has pointed out that 2 of the major weaknesses of SWAT are related to the nonspatial reference of the hydrologic response unit concept and to the simplified groundwater concept, which contribute to its low performance in baseflow simulation and its inability to simulate regional groundwater flow. This study modified the groundwater module of SWAT to overcome the above limitations. The modified groundwater module has 2 aquifers. The local aquifer, which is the shallow aquifer in the original SWAT, represents a local groundwater flow system. The regional aquifer, which replaces the deep aquifer of the original SWAT, represents intermediate and regional groundwater flow systems. Groundwater recharge is partitioned into local and regional aquifer recharges. The regional aquifer is represented by a multicell aquifer (MCA) model. The regional aquifer is discretized into cells using the Thiessen polygon method, where centres of the cells are locations of groundwater observation wells. Groundwater flow between cells is modelled using Darcy's law. Return flow from cell to stream is conceptualized using a non‐linear storage–discharge relationship. The SWAT model with the modified aquifer module, the so‐called SWAT‐MCA, was tested in 2 basins (Wipperau and Neetze) with porous aquifers in a lowland area in Lower Saxony, Germany. Results from the Wipperau basin show that the SWAT‐MCA model is able (a) to simulate baseflow in a lowland area (where baseflow is a dominant source of streamflow) better than the original model and (b) to simulate regional groundwater flow, shown by the simulated groundwater levels in cells, quite well.     

Closed‐Form Approximations for Two‐Dimensional Groundwater Age Patterns in a Fresh Water Lens

Simple closed‐form approximations are presented for calculating the steady‐state groundwater age distribution in two‐dimensional vertical cross sections of idealized fresh water lenses overlying salt water, for aquifers that are vertically semi‐infinite and of finite thickness. The approximations are developed on the basis of existing one‐dimensional analytical solutions for travel‐time calculation in fresh water lenses and approximate streamline formulations. The two‐dimensional age distributions based on the closed‐form solutions match convincingly with numerical simulations. As expected, notable deviations from the numerical solution are encountered at the groundwater flow divide and when submarine groundwater discharge occurs. Ratios of recharge over hydraulic conductivities are varied to explore how the magnitude of the deviations changes, and it is found that the approximate closed‐form solutions perform well over a range of conditions found in natural systems.     

A numerical investigation of bedrock groundwater recharge and exfiltration on soil mantled hillslopes

Here we use Richards Equation models of variably saturated soil and bedrock groundwater flow to investigate first-order patterns of the coupling between soil and bedrock flow systems. We utilize a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis to identify important hillslope parameters controlling bedrock recharge and then model the transient response of bedrock and soil flow to seasonal precipitation. Our results suggest that hillslopes can be divided into three conceptual zones of groundwater interaction, (a) the zone of lateral unsaturated soil moisture accumulation (upper portion of hillslope), (b) the zone of soil saturation and bedrock recharge (middle of hillslope) and (c) the zone of saturated-soil lateral flow and bedrock groundwater exfiltration (bottom of hillslope). Zones of groundwater interaction expand upslope during periods of precipitation and drain downslope during dry periods. The amount of water partitioned to the bedrock groundwater system a can be predicted by the ratio of bedrock to soil saturated hydraulic conductivity across a variety of hillslope configurations. Our modelled processes are qualitatively consistent with observations of shallow subsurface saturation and groundwater fluctuation on hillslopes studied in our two experimental watersheds and support a conceptual model of tightly coupled shallow and deep subsurface circulation where groundwater recharge and discharge continuously stores and releases water from longer residence time storage.     

Use of Nested Flow Models and Interpolation Techniques for Science‐Based Management of the Sheyenne National Grassland,North Dakota,USA

Noxious weeds threaten the Sheyenne National Grassland (SNG) ecosystem and therefore herbicides have been used for control. To protect groundwater quality, the herbicide application is restricted to areas where the water table is less than 10 feet (3.05 m) below the ground surface in highly permeable soils, or less than 6 feet (1.83 m) below the ground surface in low permeable soils. A local MODFLOW model was extracted from a regional GFLOW analytic element model and used to develop depth‐to‐groundwater maps in the SNG that are representative for the particular time frame of herbicide applications. These maps are based on a modeled groundwater table and a digital elevation model (DEM). The accuracy of these depth‐to‐groundwater maps is enhanced by an artificial neural networks (ANNs) interpolation scheme that reduces residuals at 48 monitoring wells. The combination of groundwater modeling and ANN improved depth‐to‐groundwater maps, which in turn provided more informed decisions about where herbicides can or cannot be safely applied.     

Defining hydrochemical evolution of streamflow through flowpath dynamics in Kawakami headwater catchment,Central Japan

The hydrochemical behaviour of catchments is often investigated by inferring stream chemistry through identification of source areas involved in hydrograph separation analysis, yet its dynamic evolution of hydrologic pathways has received little attention. Intensive hydrometric and hydrochemical measurements were performed during two different storms on March 29, 2001 and August 21–22, 2001 to define hydrochemical evolution under the dynamic of flow pathways in a 5·2 ha first‐order drainage of the Kawakami experimental basin (KEB), Central Japan, a forested headwater catchment with various soil depths (1·8 to 5 m) overlying late Neogene of volcanic bedrocks. The hydraulic potential distribution and flow lines data showed that the change in flow direction, which was controlled by rainfall amount and antecedent wetness of the soil profile, agreed well with the hydrochemical change across the slope segment during the storm. Hydrograph separation predicted by end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) using Ca²⁺ and SiO₂ showed that near surface riparian, hillslope soil water and deep riparian groundwater were important in stream flow generation. The evidence of decrease in solutes concentration at a depth of 1 m in the hillslope and 0·6 m in the near surface riparian during peak storm suggested a flushing of high solutes concentration. Most of the solutes accumulated in the deep riparian groundwater zone, which was due to prominent downward flow and agreed well with the residence time. The distinct flow pathways and chemistry between the near surface riparian and deep riparian groundwater zones and the linkage hillslope aquifer and near surface riparian reservoir, which controls rapid flow and solutes flushing during the storm event, are in conflict with the typical assumption that the whole riparian zone resets flow pathways and chemical signature of hillslope soil water, as has been reported in a previous study. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Incorporation of conceptual and parametric uncertainty into radionuclide flux estimates from a fractured granite rock mass

Detailed numerical flow and radionuclide simulations are used to predict the flux of radionuclides from three underground nuclear tests located in the Climax granite stock on the Nevada Test Site. The numerical modeling approach consists of both a regional-scale and local-scale flow model. The regional-scale model incorporates conceptual model uncertainty through the inclusion of five models of hydrostratigraphy and five models describing recharge processes for a total of 25 hydrostratigraphic–recharge combinations. Uncertainty from each of the 25 models is propagated to the local-scale model through constant head boundary conditions that transfer hydraulic gradients and flow patterns from each of the model alternatives in the vicinity of the Climax stock, a fluid flux calibration target, and model weights that describe the plausibility of each conceptual model. The local-scale model utilizes an upscaled discrete fracture network methodology where fluid flow and radionuclides are restricted to an interconnected network of fracture zones mapped onto a continuum grid. Standard Monte Carlo techniques are used to generate 200 random fracture zone networks for each of the 25 conceptual models for a total of 5,000 local-scale flow and transport realizations. Parameters of the fracture zone networks are based on statistical analysis of site-specific fracture data, with the exclusion of fracture density, which was calibrated to match the amount of fluid flux simulated through the Climax stock by the regional-scale models. Radionuclide transport is simulated according to a random walk particle method that tracks particle trajectories through the fracture continuum flow fields according to advection, dispersion and diffusional mass exchange between fractures and matrix. The breakthrough of a conservative radionuclide with a long half-life is used to evaluate the influence of conceptual and parametric uncertainty on radionuclide mass flux estimates. The fluid flux calibration target was found to correlate with fracture density, and particle breakthroughs were generally found to increase with increases in fracture density. Boundary conditions extrapolated from the regional-scale model exerted a secondary influence on radionuclide breakthrough for models with equal fracture density. The incorporation of weights into radionuclide flux estimates resulted in both noise about the original (unweighted) mass flux curves and decreases in the variance and expected value of radionuclide mass flux.