Improvement of SWAT2000 modelling to assess the impact of dams and sluices on streamflow in the Huai River basin of China

Hydrological simulation and assessment in a dam–sluice regulated river basin are a complex and challenging issue. In this article, an improved SWAT2000 modelling system was developed that incorporated the Shuffled complex evolution (SCE‐UA) optimization algorithm and the multi‐site and multi‐objective calibration strategy. The implication of multi‐objective is different for different types of outlets, i.e. streamflow for an ordinary outlet, inflow for a sluice, and water storage for a reservoir. Model parameters were redefined to improve model simulations. The surface runoff lag time (SURLAG) was extended as a spatially distributed parameter, and a correction coefficient was introduced to modify the saturated hydraulic conductivity. The modelling system was then applied to the Huai River basin of China under various climatic conditions, including a very dry year (1999), a dry year (1981), an average year (1971), and wet year (1991). In all, 26 dams and 35 sluices were considered, among which about 20 dams/sluices were used for model calibration. The impact assessment primarily focused on the very dry year (1999). The results indicated that the released water from large reservoirs was blocked in the river channels by sluices located downstream. In the very dry year, the dam–sluice operations could result in an increase of the runoff volume during the non‐flood season and a decrease in runoff during the flood season, but the changing magnitude during the non‐flood season was much greater. An important conclusion of this case study is that the sluices in the Sha‐Yin branch located in the north region and the dams in the southern mountainous region above the Wangjiaba Hydrological Station have played the most significant role in regulating the streamflow of the entire river basin. The methods addressed in this article can simulate hydrological regime in the river basins regulated by dams and sluices under different climatic conditions at the whole‐watershed scale. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a three‐dimensional watershed modelling system for water cycle in the middle part of the Heihe rivershed,in the west of China

A three‐dimensional numerical modelling system is developed to study transformation processes of water resources in alluvial fan and river basin along the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, an arid and semi‐arid region. Integrating land utilization, remote sensing and geographic information systems, we have developed a numerical modelling system that can be used to quantify the effects of land use and anthropogenic activities on the groundwater system as well as to investigate the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Various hydraulic measurements are used to identify and calibrate the hydraulic boundary conditions and spatial distributions of hydraulic parameters. In the modelling study, various water exchanges and human effects on the watershed system are considered. These include water exchange between surface water and groundwater, groundwater pumping, lateral water recharges from mountain areas, land utilization, and infiltration and evaporation in the irrigation and non‐irrigation areas. The modelling system provides a quantitative method to describe spatial and temporal distributions and transformations between various water resources, and it has application to other watersheds in arid and semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weather noise impact on the uncertainty of simulated water balance components of river basins

Assessments of hydrological response to climatic changes are characterized by different types of uncertainties. Here, the uncertainty caused by weather noise associated with the chaotic character of atmospheric processes is considered. A technique for estimating such uncertainty in simulated water balance components based on application of the land surface model SWAP and the climate model ECHAM5 is described. The technique is applied for estimating the uncertainties in the simulated water balance components (precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration) of some northern river basins of Russia. It is shown that the larger the area of a basin the less the uncertainty. This dependency is smoothed by differences in natural conditions of the basins. Analysis of the spectral densities of water balance components shows that a river basin filters out high-frequency harmonics of spectral density of precipitation (corresponding to synoptic or sub-seasonal scale) during its transformation into evapotranspiration and especially into runoff.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR H. Kreibich     

Modelling the potential impacts of groundwater hydrology on long‐term drainage basin evolution

Fluvial erosion processes are driven by water discharge on the land surface, which is produced by surface runoff and groundwater discharge. Although groundwater is often neglected in long‐term landscape evolution problems, water table levels control patterns of Dunne runoff production, and groundwater discharge can contribute significantly to storm flows. In this analysis, we investigate the role that groundwater movement plays in long‐term drainage basin evolution by modifying a widely used landscape evolution model to include a more detailed representation of basin hydrology. Precipitation is generated by a stochastic process, and the precipitation is partitioned between surface runoff and groundwater recharge using a specified infiltration capacity. Groundwater flow is simulated by a dynamic two‐dimensional Dupuit equation for an unconfined aquifer with an irregular underlying impervious layer. The model is applied to the WE‐38 basin, an experimental catchment in Pennsylvania, because 60–80 per cent of the discharge is derived from groundwater and substantial hydrologic and geomorphic information is available. The hydrologic model is first calibrated to match the observed streamflows, and then the combined hydrologic/geomorphic model is used to simulate scenarios with different infiltration capacities. The results of this modelling exercise indicate that the basin can be divided into three zones with distinct streamflow‐generating characteristics, and different parts of the basin can have different geomorphic effective events. Over long periods of time, scenarios in which groundwater discharge is large tend to modify the topography in a way that promotes groundwater discharge and inhibits Dunne runoff. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of climate change on water availability in the Macquarie‐Castlereagh River Basin in Australia

The impact of future climate on runoff generation and the implications of these changes for management of water resources in a river basin are investigated by running these changes through catchment and river system models. Two conceptual daily rainfall‐runoff models are used to simulate runoff across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region for historical (1895–2006) and future (～2030) climate based on outputs from 15 of the 23 IPCC AR4 GCMs for the A1B global warming scenario. The estimates of future runoff are used as inputs to the river system model. The mean annual historical rainfall averaged across the Macquarie‐Castlereagh region is 544 mm and the simulated runoff is 34 and 30 mm for SIMHYD and Sacramento rainfall‐runoff models, respectively. The mean annual future rainfall and runoff across the region are projected to decrease. The modelling results show a median estimate of a 5% reduction for SIMHYD (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 7%) and a 7% reduction for Sacramento (50% confidence interval ? 15 to + 8%) in mean annual runoff under a ～2030 climate for the region. The results from the river system modelling indicate that under the ～2030 climate scenario, the median of general security and supplementary diversions are projected to decrease by 4% (50% confidence interval ? 10 to + 5%) and 2% (50% confidence interval ? 5 to + 3%) respectively for the SIMHYD inflows and 8% (50% confidence interval ? 17 to + 6%) and 5% (50% confidence interval ? 11 to + 3%) for the Sacramento inflows. The future annual and seasonal storage volumes for the Burrendong Dam and inflows at all major locations across the region are projected to be lower than the historical records. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use changes on hydrological processes in the middle basin of the Heihe River,northwest China

The effects of land‐use changes on the runoff process in the midstream plain of this arid inland river basin are a key factor in the rational allocation of water resources to the middle and lower reaches. The question is whether and by how much increasingly heavy land use impacts the hydrological processes in such an arid inland river basin. The catchment of the Heihe River, one of the largest inland rivers in the arid region of northwest China, was chosen to investigate the hydrological responses to land‐use change. Flow duration curves were used to detect trends and variations in runoff between the upper and lower reaches. Relationships among precipitation, upstream runoff, and hydrological variables were identified to distinguish the effects of climatic changes and upstream runoff changes on middle and downstream runoff processes. The quantitative relation between midstream cultivated land use and various parameters of downstream runoff processes were analysed using the four periods of land‐use data since 1956. The Volterra numerical function relation of the hydrological non‐linear system response was utilized to develop a multifactor hydrological response simulation model based on the three factors of precipitation, upstream runoff, and cultivated land area. The results showed that, since 1967, the medium‐ and high‐coverage natural grassland area in the midstream region has decreased by 80·1%, and the downstream runoff has declined by 27·32% due to the continuous expansion of the cultivated land area. The contribution of cultivated land expansion to the impact on the annual total runoff is 14–31%, on the annual, spring and winter base flow it is 44–75%, and on spring and winter discharge it is 23–64%. Once the water conservation plan dominated by land‐use structural adjustments is implemented over the next 5 years, the mean annual discharge in the lower reach could increase by 8·98% and the spring discharge by 26·28%. This will significantly alleviate the imbalance between water supply and demand in both its quantity and temporal distribution in the middle and lower reaches. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling nitrogen dynamics for a mesoscale catchment using a minimum information requirement (MIR) concept / Modélisation des dynamiques de l'azote pour un bassin versant de taille moyenne,utilisant le concept de besoin minimum d'information

Abstract

Based on the water balance model LARSIM (Large Area Simulation Model), a model for the simulation of nitrogen transport was developed in a mesoscale catchment in southwest Germany. To meet the needs and constraints in river basin management, the nitrogen model was developed following the concept of minimum information requirement (MIR). The modelling concept uses only few calibration parameters and only easily accessible input data. Water balance, runoff generation and nitrogen transport were simulated on a 1-km² grid of sub-areas in which different land-use classes and soil characteristics were accounted. Temporal variability of the storage of mobile nitrogen were described using a monthly based mass balance. Nitrogen mobilization and transport was simulated using monthly values of different runoff components and data for soil properties, topography, hydrogeology and river network. The simulation was calibrated and validated using streamflow from two gauging stations and observed nitrogen concentrations at the catchment outlet, showing reasonable results for both streamflow and nitrogen dynamics. The results of the model application are discussed in the context of uncertainty problems and their implications for water management.     

Application of a land surface model for simulating rainfall streamflow hydrograph: 2. Comparison with hydrological models

Rainfall runoff hydrographs for 12 river basins ∼10³ km² in area, simulated using land surface model SWAP, are compared with analogous hydrographs obtained using hydrological models that took part in the International Model Parameter Estimation Experiment project and demonstrated the best results. All models were calibrated against data on daily river runoff from each basin over a 20-year period (1960–1979). Optimized model parameters were used to simulate runoff hydrographs for the following 19 years (1980–1998). The comparison of the modeled hydrographs for 12 basins in different calculational periods demonstrated that the SWAP model can simulate river runoff with an accuracy comparable with that of hydrological models.     

RAPID applied to the SIM‐France model

SIM‐France is a large connected atmosphere/land surface/river/groundwater modelling system that simulates the water cycle throughout metropolitan France. The work presented in this study investigates the replacement of the river routing scheme in SIM‐France by a river network model called RAPID to enhance the capacity to relate simulated flows to river gauges and to take advantage of the automated parameter estimation procedure of RAPID. RAPID was run with SIM‐France over a 10‐year period and results compared with those of the previous river routing scheme. We found that while the formulation of RAPID enhanced the functionality of SIM‐France, the flow simulations are comparable in accuracy to those previously obtained by SIM‐France. Sub‐basin optimization of RAPID parameters was found to increase model efficiency. A single criterion for quantifying the quality of river flow simulations using several river gauges globally in a river network is developed that normalizes the square error of modelled flow to allow equal treatment of all gauging stations regardless of the magnitude of flow. The use of this criterion as the cost function for parameter estimation in RAPID allows better results than by increasing the degree of spatial variability in optimization of model parameters. Likewise, increased spatial variability of RAPID parameters through accounting for topography is shown to enhance model performance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

鲂胚胎的发育

太湖湖区暴雨径流携带有大量的泥沙和土壤有机物质,对河湖水质造成污染,为了定量分析有机污染对太湖水体的影响,分水田和旱地两种土地利用条件,采用数学模型模拟了湖区丰。平,枯典型年的产流,土壤侵蚀和有机物流失过程及年总量。结果表明,湖区土壤侵蚀量和有机物流失量随地表排水强度的增加呈指数形式增大,尤其是每年暴雨期,湖区地表排水中有机物含量显著增大,建议在太湖流域水质规划和治理中加以重视并采取必要防治措施。     

Flood hydrograph attenuation induced by a reservoir system: analysis with a distributed rainfall‐runoff model

Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting storm runoff from different land‐use classes using a geographical information system‐based distributed model

A method is presented to evaluate the storm runoff contributions from different land‐use class areas within a river basin using the geographical information system‐based hydrological model WetSpa. The modelling is based on division of the catchment into a grid mesh. Each cell has a unique response function independent of the functioning of other cells. Summation of the flow responses from the cells with the same land‐use type results in the storm runoff contribution from these areas. The model was applied on the Steinsel catchment in the Alzette river basin, Grand Duchy of Luxembourg, with 52 months of meteo‐hydrological measurements. The simulation results show that the direct runoff from urban areas is dominant for a flood event compared with runoff from other land‐use areas in this catchment, and this tends to increase for small floods and for the dry‐season floods, whereas the interflow from forested, pasture and agricultural field areas contributes to recession flow. It is demonstrated that the relative contribution from urban areas decreases with flow coefficient, that cropland relative contribution is nearly constant, and that the relative contribution from grassland and woodland increases with flow coefficient with regard to their percentage of land‐use class areas within the study catchment. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A hydro‐economic modelling framework for flood damage estimation and the role of riparian vegetation

A modelling framework for the quick estimate of flood inundation and the resultant damages is developed in this paper. The model, called the flood economic impact analysis system (FEIAS), can be applied to a river reach of any hydrogeological river basin. For the development of the integrated modelling framework, three models were employed: (1) a modelling scheme based on the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN model that was developed for any geomorphological river basin, (2) a river flow/floodplain model, and (3) a flood loss estimation model. The first sub‐model of the flood economic impact analysis system simulates the hydrological processes for extended periods of time, and its output is used as input to a second component, the river/floodplain model. The hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) is the river/floodplain model employed in this study. The simulated flood parameters from the hydraulic model MIKE 11 (quasi‐2D) are passed, at the end of each time step, to a third component, the flood loss model for the estimation of flood damage. In the present work, emphasis was given to the seasonal variation of Manning's coefficient (n), which is an important parameter for the determination of the flood inundation in hydraulic modelling. High values of Manning's coefficient for a channel indicate high flow resistance. The riparian vegetation can have a large impact on channel resistance. The modelling framework developed in this paper was used to investigate the role of riparian vegetation in reducing flood damage. Moreover, it was used to investigate the influence of cutting riparian vegetation scenarios on the flow characteristics. The proposed framework was applied to the downstream part of the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece, and was tested and validated with historical data. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A technique for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate change

A method is developed for scenario prediction of changes in water balance components in northern river basins in the context of possible climate changes. The method uses the land surface model SWAP, describing the heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere. Four IPCC climate scenarios, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of the human civilization, were used to forecast different variants of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the Northern Dvina River basin in the XXI century, which served as a basis for evaluating possible changes in precipitation, evaporation, and runoff from the Northern Dvina basin until the year of 2063.     

The role of urban growth,climate change,and their interplay in altering runoff extremes

Changes in climate and urban growth are the most influential factors affecting hydrological characteristics in urban and extra‐urban contexts. The assessment of the impacts of these changes on the extreme rainfall–runoff events may have important implications on urban and extra‐urban management policies against severe events, such as floods, and on the design of hydraulic infrastructures. Understanding the effects of the interaction between climate change and urban growth on the generation of runoff extremes is the main aim of this paper. We carried out a synthetic experiment on a river catchment of 64 km² to generate hourly runoff time series under different hypothetical scenarios. We imposed a growth of the percentage of urban coverage within the basin (from 1.5% to 25%), a rise in mean temperature of 2.6 °C, and an alternatively increase/decrease in mean annual precipitation of 25%; changes in mean annual precipitation were imposed following different schemes, either changing rainstorm frequency or rainstorm intensity. The modelling framework consists of a physically based distributed hydrological model, which simulates fast and slow mechanisms of runoff generation directly connected with the impervious areas, a land‐use change model, and a weather generator. The results indicate that the peaks over threshold and the hourly annual peaks, used as hydrological indicators, are very sensitive to the rainstorm intensity. Moreover, the effects of climate changes dominate on those of urban growth determining an exacerbation of the fast runoff component in extreme events and a reduction of the slow and deep runoff component, thus limiting changes in the overall runoff.     

Modelling particle residence times in agricultural river basins using a sediment budget model and fallout radionuclide tracers

Contemporary patterns in river basin sediment dynamics have been widely investigated but the timescales associated with current sediment delivery processes have received much less attention. Furthermore, no studies have quantified the effect of recent land use change on the residence or travel times of sediment transported through river basins. Such information is crucial for understanding contemporary river basin function and responses to natural and anthropogenic disturbances or management interventions. To address this need, we adopt a process‐based modelling approach to quantify changes in spatial patterns and residence times of suspended sediment in response to recent agricultural land cover change. The sediment budget model SedNet was coupled with a mass balance model of particle residence times based on atmospheric and fluvial fluxes of three fallout radionuclide tracers (⁷Be, excess ²¹⁰Pb and ¹³⁷Cs). Mean annual fluxes of suspended sediment were simulated in seven river basins (38–920 km²) in south‐west England for three land cover surveys (1990, 2000 and 2007). Suspended sediment flux increased across the basins from 0.5–15 to 1.4–37 kt y^‐1 in response to increasing arable land area between consecutive surveys. The residence time model divided basins into slow (upper surface soil) and rapid (river channel and connected hillslope sediment source area) transport compartments. Estimated theoretical residence times in the slow compartment decreased from 13–48 to 5.6–14 ky with the increase in basin sediment exports. In contrast, the short residence times for the rapid compartment increased from 185–256 to 260–368 d as the modelled connected source area expanded with increasing sediment supply from more arable land. The increase in sediment residence time was considered to correspond to longer sediment travel distances linked to larger connected source areas. This novel coupled modelling approach provides unique insight into river basin responses to recent environmental change not otherwise available from conventional measurement techniques. © 2014 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Analysis of long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin

To analyse the long‐term water balance of the Yellow River basin, a new hydrological model was developed and applied to the source area of the basin. The analysis involved 41 years (1960–2000) of daily observation data from 16 meteorological stations. The model is composed of the following three sub‐models: a heat balance model, a runoff formation model and a river‐routing network model. To understand the heat and water balances more precisely, the original model was modified as follows. First, the land surface was classified into five types (bare, grassland, forest, irrigation area and water surface) using a high‐resolution land‐use map. Potential evaporation was then calculated using land‐surface temperatures estimated by the heat balance model. The maximum evapotranspiration of each land surface was calculated from potential evaporation using functions of the leaf area index (LAI). Finally, actual evapotranspiration was estimated by regulating the maximum evapotranspiration using functions of soil moisture content. The river discharge estimated by the model agreed well with the observed data in most years. However, relatively large errors, which may have been caused by the overestimation of surface flow, appeared in some summer periods. The rapid decrease of river discharge in recent years in the source area of the Yellow River basin depended primarily on the decrease in precipitation. Furthermore, the results suggested that the long‐term water balance in the source area of the Yellow River basin is influenced by land‐use changes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling hydrological response to different land‐use and climate change scenarios in the Zamu River basin of northwest China

Changes in climate and land use can significantly influence the hydrological cycle and hence affect water resources. Understanding the impacts of climate and land‐use changes on streamflow can facilitate development of sustainable water resources strategies. This study investigates the flow variation of the Zamu River, an inland river in the arid area of northwest China, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool distributed hydrological model. Three different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios were considered on the basis of measured climate data and land‐use cover, and then these data were input into the hydrological model. Based on the sensitivity analysis, model calibration and verification, the hydrological response to different land‐use and climate‐change scenarios was simulated. The results indicate that the runoff varied with different land‐use type, and the runoff of the mountain reaches of the catchment increased when grassland area increased and forestland decreased. The simulated runoff increased with increased precipitation, but the mean temperature increase decreased the runoff under the same precipitation condition. Application of grey correlation analysis showed that precipitation and temperature play a critical role in the runoff of the Zamu River basin. Sensitivity analysis of runoff to precipitation and temperature by considering the 1990s land use and climate conditions was also undertaken. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.