首页 | 本学科首页   官方微博 | 高级检索  
相似文献
 共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
This paper studies the links between scaling properties of river flow time series by comparing the results of three techniques applied to an extended data set of 34 French discharge gauging stations. The three approaches used are based on different mathematical tools and hypotheses: (1) shape analysis of flood hydrographs; (2) a multifractal framework through spectral and moment analyses, and (3) flood frequency analysis through the fitting of flood duration frequency curves (QdF). The general aim is to test the hypothesis of scaling invariance of river flow and the shape invariance of the hydrographs, in order to investigate the link between scaling properties and flow dynamics. In particular, the coherence between different approaches widely used in the literature to describe these characteristics is evaluated through the estimation of parameters defining the range of time‐scales on which the scaling properties are valid. The results show that most of these timescale parameters are linked to the flow dynamics and suggest that the approaches applied are interrelated. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Extreme precipitation can have profound consequences for communities, resulting in natural hazards such as rainfall-triggered landslides that cause casualties and extensive property damage. A key challenge to understanding and predicting rainfall-triggered landslides comes from observational uncertainties in the depth and intensity of precipitation preceding the event. Practitioners and researchers must select from a wide range of precipitation products, often with little guidance. Here we evaluate the degree of precipitation uncertainty across multiple precipitation products for a large set of landslide-triggering storm events and investigate the impact of these uncertainties on predicted landslide probability using published intensity–duration thresholds. The average intensity, peak intensity, duration, and NOAA-Atlas return periods are compared ahead of 177 reported landslides across the continental United States and Canada. Precipitation data are taken from four products that cover disparate measurement methods: near real-time and post-processed satellite (IMERG), radar (MRMS), and gauge-based (NLDAS-2). Landslide-triggering precipitation was found to vary widely across precipitation products with the depth of individual storm events diverging by as much as 296 mm with an average range of 51 mm. Peak intensity measurements, which are typically influential in triggering landslides, were also highly variable with an average range of 7.8 mm/h and as much as 57 mm/h. The two products more reliant upon ground-based observations (MRMS and NLDAS-2) performed better at identifying landslides according to published intensity–duration storm thresholds, but all products exhibited hit ratios of greater than 0.56. A greater proportion of landslides were predicted when including only manually verified landslide locations. We recommend practitioners consider low-latency products like MRMS for investigating landslides, given their near-real time data availability and good performance in detecting landslides. Practitioners would be well-served considering more than one product as a way to confirm intense storm signals and minimize the influence of noise and false alarms.  相似文献   

3.
Butterworth band-pass filter has been applied to S-wave data recorded at 8 stations in China mainland, and S-wave splitting at different frequency bands is analyzed. The results show that the delay time and the fast polarization directions of S-wave splitting depend upon the frequency bands. There is an absence of S-wave splitting at the station of Urumqi (WMQ) for the band of 0.1–0.2 Hz. With the frequency band broadening, the delay time of S-wave splitting decreases at the stations of Beijing (BJI), Enshi (ENH), Kunming (KMI) and Mudanjiang (MDJ); the fast polarization direction changes from westward to eastward at Enshi (ENH), and from eastward to westward at Hailaer (HIA). The variations of delay time with bands at Lanzhou (LZH) and Qiongzhong (QIZ) are similar, and there is a coherent trend of fast polarization directions at BJI, KMI and MDJ, respectively. Initial interpretations to the results of frequency band-dependence of S-wave splitting are also presented.  相似文献   

4.
Onn the basis of measurements of hydrological parameters and field monitoring of a landslide in the Terres Noires in the basin of Barcelonnette (France), a hydrological model was developed, describing groundwater fluctuations in relation to precipitation. These groundwater fluctuations can be used as input to a stability model in order to assess the temporal frequency of instability of the landslide. The calculated groundwater fluctuations, which can forecast years with landslide incidents, were roughly calibrated against dated movements obtained by dendrochronological research. The hydrological system of the landslide can be understood through a three-layer sequence: a rather permeable colluvial top layer underlain by a less permeable colluvial second layer, both overlying the nearly impermeable in situ non-weathered black marls (Terres Noires). The mean Ksat value for the matrix flow in the top layer is 15·7 cm/day and in the underlying layer 0·7 cm/day. However, water fluxes in these layers occur by two types of groundwater flow: matrix flow obeying Darcy's law, and more rapid gravitational flow through preferential flow paths, increasing the conductivity by a factor of 10 to 100, as cube method Ksat measurements revealed. The model shows long-term yearly fluctuations of the phreatic surface, with peaks at the end of winter, as well as at the beginning of spring, and minimum values during the dry summer period. These long-term fluctuations are explained by the high drainage capacity of the top colluvial layer and the relatively low vertical water fluxes within the underlying colluvial layer. The model shows that maximum critical peak height conditions of the groundwater, causing instability, occur in wet seasons, with at least six consecutive months with high amounts (more than 60 mm) of precipitation. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Predicting sediment yield at the catchment scale is one of the main challenges in geomorphologic research. The application of both physics‐based models and regression models has until now not provided very satisfying results for prediction of sediment yield for medium to large sized catchments (c. >50 km2). The explanation for this lies in a combination of the large data requirements of most models and a lack of knowledge to describe all processes and process interactions at the catchment scale. In particular, point sources of sediment (e.g. gullies, mass movements), connectivity and sediment transport remain difficult to describe in most models. From reservoir sedimentation data of 44 Italian catchments, it appeared that there was a (non‐significant) positive relation between catchment area and sediment yield. This is in contrast to what is generally expected from the theory of decreasing sediment delivery rates with increasing catchment area. Furthermore, this positive relation suggests that processes other than upland erosion are responsible for catchment sediment yield. Here we explore the potential of the Factorial Scoring Model (FSM) and the Pacific Southwest Interagency Committee (PSIAC) model to predict sediment yield, and indicate the most important sediment sources. In these models different factors are used to characterize a drainage basin in terms of sensitivity to erosion and connectivity. In both models an index is calculated that is related to sediment yield. The FSM explained between 36 and 61 per cent of the variation in sediment yield, and the PSIAC model between 57 and 62 per cent, depending on the factors used to characterize the catchments. The FSM model performed best based on a factor to describe gullies, lithology, landslides, catchment shape and vegetation. Topography and catchment area did not explain additional variance. In particular, the addition of the landslide factor resulted in a significantly increased model performance. The FSM and PSIAC model both performed better than a spatially distributed model describing water erosion and sediment transport, which was applied to the same catchments but explained only between 20 and 51 per cent of the variation in sediment yield. Model results confirmed the hypothesis that processes other than upland erosion are probably responsible for sediment yield in the Italian catchments. A promising future development of the models is by the use of detailed spatially distributed data to determine the scores, decrease model subjectivity and provide spatially distributed output. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Singapore is a classic case of a modern metropolis with low hazard but high exposure to the seismicity in Sumatra. Because of land shortage, more than 80% of the population lives in high‐rise residential buildings. As part of the efforts to assess the seismic performance of buildings in Singapore subjected to long‐distance Sumatran earthquakes, relationships between the natural vibration period and height of high‐rise public residential buildings in Singapore are derived empirically by conducting ambient vibration tests on 116 buildings. The measured buildings have a height ranging from 4 to 30 stories. The aspect ratio of buildings in plan is found to be insignificant in affecting the natural vibration period of the first mode of the buildings. The period‐height relationships are derived using regression analysis considering the site properties of a building. It is concluded that the vibration periods estimated from the proposed period‐height relationship for buildings located at soft‐soil site are about 40% longer than the vibration periods estimated for buildings located at firm‐soil site. Measurements are also conducted to study the influence of buildings on the measured frequency of the surrounding soil. For this purpose, two buildings with 25 and 30 stories located at firm‐soil site and soft‐soil site, respectively, are selected. It is found that the distance of building influence on the measured frequency of the surrounding soil may reach up to one building height for a firm‐soil site and two building heights for a soft‐soil site. Additional data of natural vibration periods of 19 instrumented residential buildings, which have height ranging from 9 to 30 stories, were obtained from the building response recorded during the September 30, 2009 Sumatran earthquake event. The natural vibration periods of these buildings are compared with those estimated using the proposed period‐height relationships, and the absolute differences are found to be less than 12%. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Channel bars and banks strongly affect the morphology of both braided and meandering rivers. Accordingly, bar formation and bank erosion processes have been greatly explored. There is, however, a lack of investigations addressing the interactions between bed and bank morphodynamics, especially over short timescales. One major implication of this gap is that the processes leading to the repeated accretion of mid‐channel bars and associated widenings remain unsolved. In a restored section of the Drau River, a gravel‐bed river in Austria, mid‐channel bars have developed in a widening channel. During mean flow conditions, the bars divert the flow towards the banks. One channel section exhibited both an actively retreating bank and an expanding mid‐channel bar, and was selected to investigate the morphodynamic processes involved in bar accretion and channel widening at the intra‐event timescale. We repeatedly surveyed riverbed and riverbank topography, monitored riverbank hydrology and mounted a time‐lapse camera for continuous observation of riverbank erosion processes during four flow events. The mid‐channel bar was shown to accrete when it was submerged during flood events, which at the subsequent flow diversion during lower discharges narrowed the branch along the bank and increased the water surface elevation upstream from the riffle, which constituted the inlet into the branch. These changes of bed topography accelerated the flow along the bank and triggered bank failures up to 20 days after the flood events. Four analysed flow events exhibited a total bar expansion from initially 126 m2 to 295 m2, while bank retreat was 6 m at the apex of the branch. The results revealed the forcing role of bar accretion in channel widening and highlighted the importance of intra‐event scale bed morphodynamics for bank erosion, which were summarized in a conceptual model of the observed bar–bank interactions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Natural and anthropogenic mountain landscapes coevolve responding on different temporal scales to climate changes and geodynamics by a series of increments that cause the dynamic association of morphological stabilization surfaces, stratigraphic units and landforms. Understanding the incremental history of palimpsest landscapes helps to recognize and forecast the effects of climate change on the sensitive mountain environments, contributes to archaeological and historical reconstruction and supports management strategies for natural risks prevention and mitigation. The Italian Bregaglia Valley provides an excellent site to unravel the recent/historical increments of evolution of landforms and human settlement, permitting to map the paleo-digital terrain models (DTMs) corresponding to the relevant landscape turning points. After the last de-glaciation, two large-scale landslides reshaped the valley floor, both predisposed by deep-seated gravitational slope deformations and one surely triggered by intense rainfalls. The most recent and impacting event buried in 1618 the rich border town of Piuro, the ancient one occurred in the same area at least 1.5 ka before. Combining stratigraphic, geomorphological, topographic, archaeological and historical data, we drew the paleo-DTMs of the pre- and post-1618 settings of Piuro, sketching the landscape evolution. Since two millennia, human settlements took advantage of the decadal to secular most stable surfaces, represented by the inactive lobes of debris-flow fans, the highest trunk river terraces and the top of humps formed by the ancient landslide body in the valley centre. Stratigraphic relationships, archaeological findings and age determinations show that both landslides diverted the trunk river and covered the existing fan lobes. On a secular timescale, fan progradation and trunk river terracing buried and reworked both the landslide bodies. The paleo-DTMs show their original areal extent and permit to compute their volume and to sketch the setting of the buried Piuro settlements, drawing the changes of the Mera trunk river course and the chronology of activity of the lateral debris-flow fan lobes.  相似文献   

9.
Thalweg migration of an alluvial river plays a key role in channel evolution, which may influence the effect of existing river training works and biodiversity on floodplains, and cause losses in riparian land and property. The braided reach of the Lower Yellow River underwent continuous channel aggradation during the period from 1986 to 1999, and then remarkable channel degradation in 1999–2015 owing to the state of operation of the Xiaolangdi Reservoir in 1999. Here we quantify associated thalweg migration changes and identify the key influencing factor in the braided reach. Thalweg‐migration distances and intensities at section‐ and reach‐scales were calculated during the past 30 years from 1986 to 2015, in order to investigate the characteristics of thalweg migration in the reach. There was a 47% reduction in the reach‐scale thalweg‐migration distance and a 35% reduction in the corresponding migration intensity after the reservoir operation. It is also revealed that fluvial erosion intensity is a dominant factor in controlling the thalweg migration, based on the investigation into various influencing factors in the study reach. The thalweg‐migration intensity of the braided reach can be expressed as a power function of the previous four‐year average fluvial erosion intensity. The calculated thalweg‐migration intensities in 1986–2015 using the proposed relation generally agree with the observed data. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Interrill soil erosion processes and their interaction on low slopes   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
Soil erosion by water is mostly the result of rainfall‐driven and runoff‐driven processes taking place simultaneously during a storm event. However, the effect of interaction between these two erosion processes has received limited attention. Most laboratory experiments indicate that the rate of erosion in a rain‐impacted flow is greater than for un‐impacted flows of similar depth and velocity; however, negative interaction between the two processes has also been reported. There is no provision for any such interaction in any of the current erosion models. This paper reports on the results of a number of exact experiments on three soil types carried out in the flume of Griffith University's large rainfall simulator to study interaction between rain and runoff processes. The results show that interaction is generally positive under approximately steady state condition and there is very limited sign of negative interaction reported by others. Results provide strong evidence that raindrops continuously peel fine sediment from larger stable aggregates. This mechanism could be the reason for positive interaction during simultaneous rainfall and flow driven erosion in well aggregated soils as a result of increased fine particles in the eroded sediment. Strong positive interaction between rain and runoff erosion also occurs for medium to large aggregates. This strongly suggests that mechanisms that are not well understood are operational. It is quite possible that particle movement can be stimulated by rolling or creeping in a size‐selective manner. Indeed, such additional mechanisms may well be largely responsible for the positive interaction observed between rain and surface flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
为提高地震人员伤亡预评估的准确性,完善地震灾害损失评估模型,科学评估地震地质灾害可能造成的人员伤亡数量,以2014年鲁甸MS6.5地震滑坡人员死亡数据为样本,建立了一种基于公里网格单元的地震滑坡人员死亡率logistic回归模型。采用F检验法对所建模型的合理性进行检验,计算得到的F值无限接近于1,表明模型无限接近于完全模型,具有极好的数学统计意义。根据模型评估的死亡率反演得到鲁甸地震灾区滑坡致死人数为233人,比实际少17人,总精确度为93.20%,实际死亡人数与模型识别人数在空间上也有很好的一致性,说明计算得到的地震滑坡人员死亡率是实际死亡人数的良好指标。  相似文献   

12.
On November 6, 1988, two earthquakes with magnitude>7 occurred on the Lancang-Gengma fault zone in south-west China. The extensive destruction and loss of lives resulted mainly from widespread collapse of unreinforced masonry and mud brick structures; the maximum preliminary intensity of the Lancang earthquakes was IX on the Chinese scale, which is similar to the Modified Mercall scale, and the highest preliminary intensity of the Gengma earthquake was probably X. The surface manifestation of tectonic activity of the Lancang earthquake was the occurrence of the earthquake-related extensional ground cracks and small fault scarps in the epicentral region. The cracks with small fault scarps occurred mainly in four relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear zones that ranged from a few hundred meters to 6 km in length. The area within which the cracks and small scarps occurred is 35 km long by 3 km wide. The maximum net throw and the dextral horizontal offset were 1.5m and 1.4m, respectively. Clear evidence of new surface faulting caused by the Gengma earthquake includes a series of relatively continuous north-northwest-trending linear ground crack zones and a 5 km long section of fault scarps. The total length of the surface rupture zones of the Gengma earthquakes is about 24 km, with 3.5m maximum net throw and 3m maximum right-lateral slip. Both earthquakes were associated with surface faulting showing a combination of normal and right lateral motion. The distribution of seismic intensities and surface rupture characteristics of these two earthquakes are discussed in this paper. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 344–353, 1991. The research project was performed out under the direction of Professors. Xingyuan Ma and Yuntai Chen, and the field investigation was performed with help of Kui Jiang and Junchang Zhang of the Seismological Bureau of Yunnan Province. Here the authors express great appreciation.  相似文献   

13.
平稳随机地震地面运动过程模型及其统计特征   总被引:5,自引:3,他引:5  
地震地面运动过程具有强烈的随机性,应用随机理论对实际工程结构进行地震可靠性分析和抗震设计与加固时都需要建立合理的随机地震地面运动模型,本文选择3种典型的随机地震动模型,即理想白噪声模型、金井清模型和改进的金井消模型,分析了它们的物理概念、频域特征以及适用范围。引入状态向量,建立状态方程.通过复振型叠加法分析了地震地面运动过程的时域统计特性,推导出3种随机地震动模型的相关函数的解析表达式.这些结果可为结构随机地震反应时域分析和抗震可靠性评估提供基础。  相似文献   

14.
15.
River bank erosion occurs primarily through a combination of three mechanisms: mass failure, fluvial entrainment, and subaerial weakening and weathering. Subaerial processes are often viewed as ‘preparatory’ processes, weakening the bank face prior to fluvial erosion. Within a river basin downstream process ‘domains’ occur, with subaerial processes dominating the upper reaches, fluvial erosion the middle, and mass failure the lower reaches of a river. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that (a) subaerial processes may be underestimated as an erosive agent, and (b) process dominance has a temporal, as well as spatial, aspect. Bank erosion on the River Arrow, Warwickshire, UK, was monitored for 16 months (December 1996 to March 1998) using erosion pins. Variations in the rate and aerial extent of erosion are considered with reference to meteorological data. Throughout the first 15 months all erosion recorded was subaerial, resulting in up to 181 mm a?1 of bank retreat, compared with 13 to 27 mm a?1 reported by previous researchers. While the role of subaerial processes as ‘preparatory’ is not contended, it is suggested that such processes can also be erosive. The three bank erosion mechanisms operate at different levels of magnitude and frequency, and the River Arrow data demonstrate this. Thus the concept of process dominance has a temporal, as well as spatial aspect, particularly over the short time‐periods often used for studying processes in the field. Perception of the relative efficacy of each erosive mechanism will therefore be influenced by the temporal scale at which the bank is considered. With the advent of global climate change, both these magnitude–frequency characteristics and the consequent interaction of bank erosion mechanisms may alter. It is therefore likely that recognition of this temporal aspect of process dominance will become increasingly important to studies of bank erosion processes. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Laboratory experiments were performed with rain of uniform drop size (2·7 mm, 5·1 mm) impacting flows over non‐cohesive beds of uniform sized sand (0·11–0·9 mm) and coal (0·2–0·9 mm) particles with flow velocities (20 mm s?1, 40 mm s?1) that were insufficient for the flow to entrain the particles without the aid of raindrop impact. Measurement of particle travel distance under rain made up of 2·7 mm drops confirmed a theoretical relationship between settling velocity and the distance particles travel after being disturbed by drop impact. Although, in theory, a relationship between settling velocity and particle travel distance exists, settling velocity by itself was unable to account for the effect of changes in both particle size and density on sediment discharge from beds of uniform non‐cohesive material. Particle density was also a factor. Further study of how particle characteristics influence sediment discharge will aid modelling of the impact of the soil in process‐based models of erosion by rain‐impacted flow. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Distance,time and scale in soil erosion processes   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This commentary brings together, as a virtual Special Issue, a number of recent papers in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms that are all related to issues of scale in soil erosion. Empirical concepts that were developed in the 1940s are now in need of re‐thinking, and papers are increasingly exploring, through modelling and measurement, appropriate ways to recognize the mechanisms that connect processes across time and space scales. Issues include a more nuanced approach to selective transportation, responses to variability in surface and sub‐surface conditions and the need to analyse measurements in ways that can be transferred between sites and storms. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The acceleration of surface velocities observed over the last two decades on monitored rock glaciers worldwide is a widespread signal of the probable control of warming air temperatures on long-term permafrost creep. Yet, the actual consequences of this acceleration on sediment availability in high mountain catchments have never been properly estimated at the pluri-decadal scale. The present study evaluates the sediment transfer activity between five rock glaciers located in the western European Alps and the headwaters of the torrential channels they are respectively connected to. It reposes on the orthorectification of aerial images available generally from the 1960s to the mid-2010, to reconstruct time-series of (i) horizontal surface velocities and (ii) frontal erosion rates. Values of horizontal velocity are retrieved by tracking the displacement of boulders on the surface of rock glaciers between consecutive images while erosion rates affecting the fronts are calculated by combining these values of displacement with the geometry of the front (mean width and rock glacier thickness) derived from recent high-resolution digital elevation models. Results confirm the general acceleration of rock glaciers surface velocities since the 1970s and indicate that this accelerating trend is causing an increase in the erosion rates calculated at the front of most studied rock glaciers. In some cases and over specific periods however, the acceleration resulted in the advance of the whole landforms over their own sediments, leading to a comparatively low sediment export towards the torrents.  相似文献   

19.
This paper examines the conservativeness of tracers through the sediment generation process. This is done by comparing a selection of tracer properties of sediment eroded from large plots by simulated rainfall, with the corresponding properties of the source materials within the plots. Sediment was generated using three simulated rainfall events for each of five selected erosion source types in the Tarago catchment, Victoria, Australia. As there were particle size and organic content differences between the source material and the generated sediment, the measured tracer properties of the source material were corrected for these differences. The possible role of analytical errors in this investigation was also addressed. The geochemical property, concentration of Fe2O3, was not conservative for any of the process sources investigated. Concentration of Al2O3 was not conservative for three of the four process sources investigated, and the sum of molecular proportions of CaO**, Na2O, K2O and Al2O3 was not conservative for two of the four process sources investigated. Mineral magnetic properties, IRM850 and χ were also found to be not conservative, although this may be the result of the complex relationship between particle size and mineral magnetic properties not being adequately accommodated in this analysis. The radionuclide tracers, 137Cs and 210Pbex, were found to be conservative through the sediment generation process. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
An understanding of the sources of variation in the use of erosion plots and of their feasibility to meet the objectives of each specific research project is key to improving future field designs, selecting data for modelling purposes and furthering knowledge of soil erosion processes. Our own field experiences from ongoing research on soil erosion processes since 1989, have allowed us to detect several methodological problems that cause measurement variability. Here several examples are presented concerning: (i) differences in long‐term soil erosion data between open and closed plots; (ii) differences in soil loss derived from replica soil erosion plots; and (iii) differences in soil loss data derived from plots at a range of spatial scales. Closed plots are not the most suitable method for long‐term monitoring of soil erosion rates due to the risk of exhaustion of available material within the plot. The difference in time after which exhaustion occurs depends on the surface soil characteristics, the climatological conditions and the size of the plots. We detected four and seven years as ‘time to exhaustion’. Different results are frequently obtained between pairs of replica plots. Differences up to a factor of nine have been detected in total soil loss between replica plots due to different spatial patterns of surface components. Different constraints appear depending on the spatial scale of measurement of soil loss. We obtained lower runoff percentages at coarser scales; however, larger sediment concentrations are observed at coarser scales (1·32 g l?1, catchment; 0·30 g l?1, 30 m2; 0·17 g l?1, 1 m2 scales). The smaller the plot, the larger the hydrological disconnection within the system, the lower the energy flows due to short distances and the quicker the response to runoff due to an artificial decrease of concentration times for continuous flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

设为首页 | 免责声明 | 关于勤云 | 加入收藏

Copyright©北京勤云科技发展有限公司  京ICP备09084417号