Catchment area‐based evaluation of the AMC‐dependent SCS‐CN‐based rainfall–runoff models

Using a large set of rainfall–runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area‐based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS‐CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area‐based groups of watersheds ranging from 0·01 to 310·3 km². Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation using a continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model

A continuous Soil Conservation Service (SCS) curve number (CN) method that considers time‐varied SCS CN values was developed based on the original SCS CN method with a revised soil moisture accounting approach to estimate run‐off depth for long‐term discontinuous storm events. The method was applied to spatially distributed long‐term hydrologic simulation of rainfall‐run‐off flow with an underlying assumption for its spatial variability using a geographic information systems‐based spatially distributed Clark's unit hydrograph method (Distributed‐Clark; hybrid hydrologic model), which is a simple few parameter run‐off routing method for input of spatiotemporally varied run‐off depth, incorporating conditional unit hydrograph adoption for different run‐off precipitation depth‐based direct run‐off flow convolution. Case studies of spatially distributed long‐term (total of 6 years) hydrologic simulation for four river basins using daily NEXRAD quantitative precipitation estimations demonstrate overall performances of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (E_NS) 0.62, coefficient of determination (R²) 0.64, and percent bias 0.33% in direct run‐off and E_NS 0.71, R² 0.72, and percent bias 0.15% in total streamflow for model result comparison against observed streamflow. These results show better fit (improvement in E_NS of 42.0% and R² of 33.3% for total streamflow) than the same model using spatially averaged gauged rainfall. Incorporation of logic for conditional initial abstraction in a continuous SCS CN method, which can accommodate initial run‐off loss amounts based on previous rainfall, slightly enhances model simulation performance; both E_NS and R² increased by 1.4% for total streamflow in a 4‐year calibration period. A continuous SCS CN method‐based hybrid hydrologic model presented in this study is, therefore, potentially significant to improved implementation of long‐term hydrologic applications for spatially distributed rainfall‐run‐off generation and routing, as a relatively simple hydrologic modelling approach for the use of more reliable gridded types of quantitative precipitation estimations.     

An improved AMC‐coupled runoff curve number model

In the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method, the three levels of antecedent moisture condition (AMC) permit unreasonable sudden jumps in curve numbers, which result into corresponding jumps in the estimated runoff. A few recently developed SCS‐CN‐based models obviate this problem, yet they have several limitations. In this study, such a model incorporating a continuous function for antecedent moisture has been presented. It has several advantages over the other existing SCS‐CN‐based models. Its application to a large dataset from US watersheds showed to perform better than the existing SCS‐CN method and the others based on it. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a soil moisture‐based distributed hydrologic model for determining hydrologically based critical source areas

A simple grid cell‐based distributed hydrologic model was developed to provide spatial information on hydrologic components for determining hydrologically based critical source areas. The model represents the critical process (soil moisture variation) to run‐off generation accounting for both local and global water balance. In this way, it simulates both infiltration excess run‐off and saturation excess run‐off. The model was tested by multisite and multivariable evaluation on the 50‐km² Little River Experimental Watershed I in Georgia, U.S. and 2 smaller nested subwatersheds. Water balance, hydrograph, and soil moisture were simulated and compared to observed data. For streamflow calibration, the daily Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficient was 0.78 at the watershed outlet and 0.56 and 0.75 at the 2 nested subwatersheds. For the validation period, the Nash‐Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.79 at the watershed outlet and 0.85 and 0.83 at the 2 subwatersheds. The per cent bias was less than 15% for all sites. For soil moisture, the model also predicted the rising and declining trends at 4 of the 5 measurement sites. The spatial distribution of surface run‐off simulated by the model was mainly controlled by local characteristics (precipitation, soil properties, and land cover) on dry days and by global watershed characteristics (relative position within the watershed and hydrologic connectivity) on wet days when saturation excess run‐off was simulated. The spatial details of run‐off generation and travel time along flow paths provided by the model are helpful for watershed managers to further identify critical source areas of non‐point source pollution and develop best management practices.     

A relook at NEH‐4 curve number data and antecedent moisture condition criteria

This paper investigates the variation of the popular curve number (CN) values given in the National Engineering Hand Book–Section 4 (NEH‐4) of the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) with antecedent moisture condition (AMC) and soil type. Using the volumetric concept, involving soil, water, and air, a significant condensation of the NEH‐4 tables is achieved. This leads to a procedure for determination of CN for gauged as well as ungauged watersheds. The rainfall‐runoff events derived from daily data of four Indian watersheds exhibited a power relation between the potential maximum retention or CN and the 5‐day antecedent rainfall amount. Including this power relation, the SCS‐CN method was modified. This modification also eliminates the problem of sudden jumps from one AMC level to the other. The runoff values predicted using the modified method and the existing method utilizing the NEH‐4 AMC criteria yielded similar results. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Green‐Ampt Curve‐Number mixed procedure as an empirical tool for rainfall–runoff modelling in small and ungauged basins

The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method is a popular rainfall–runoff model that is widely used to estimate direct runoff from small and ungauged basins. The SCS‐CN is a simple and valuable approach to quantify the total streamflow volume generated by storm rainfall, but its use is not appropriate for estimating the sub‐daily incremental rainfall excess. To overcome this drawback, we propose to include the Green‐Ampt (GA) infiltration model into a mixed procedure, which is referred to as Curve Number for Green‐Ampt (CN4GA), aiming to distribute in time the information provided by the SCS‐CN method. For a given storm, the computed SCS‐CN total net rainfall amount is employed to calibrate the soil hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA model. The proposed procedure is evaluated by analysing 100 rainfall–runoff events that were observed in four small catchments of varying size. CN4GA appears to provide encouraging results for predicting the net rainfall peak and duration values and has shown, at least for the test cases considered in this study, better agreement with the observed hydrographs than the classic SCS‐CN method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A combined rainfall infiltration model based on Green–Ampt and SCS‐curve number

The Green–Ampt infiltration equation is an incomplete governing equation for rainfall infiltration due to the absence of an inertia term. The estimation of the capillary pressure head at the wetting front is difficult to determine. Thus, a major limitation of the Green–Ampt model is the constant, non‐zero surface ponding depth. This paper proposes an integrated rainfall infiltration model based on the Green–Ampt model and the SCS‐CN model. It achieves a complete governing equation for rainfall infiltration by momentum balance and the water budget based on the Green–Ampt assumption, and uses the curve number from the SCS‐CN method to calculate the initial abstraction, which is used as a basic parameter for the governing equation of the intensity of rainfall loss during the runoff period. The integrated rainfall infiltration model resolves the dilemma for capillary pressure head estimation, overcomes the limitation of constant, non‐zero surface ponding depth, and facilitates the calculation of runoff for individual flood simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Curve‐Number/Green–Ampt mixed procedure for streamflow predictions in ungauged basins: Parameter sensitivity analysis

A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve‐number equation

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve‐number (SCS‐CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS‐CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non‐point‐source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS‐CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN–VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south‐eastern Australia to produce runoff‐probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN–VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS‐CN method, the distributed CN–VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN–VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS–CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Projected glacier meltwater and river run‐off changes in the Upper Reach of the Shule River Basin,north‐eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau

Glacier meltwater change in the north‐eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau is greatly important for the projection of the impact of future climate change on local water resource management. Although the glaciated area is only approximately 4% of the Upper Reach of the Shule River Basin (URSRB), the average glacier meltwater contribution to river run‐off was approximately 23.6% during the periods 1971/1972 to 2012/2013. A new glacier melting module coupled with the macroscale hydrologic Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC‐CAS) was adopted to simulate and project changes in the glacier meltwater and river run‐off of the URSRB forced by downscaled output of the BCC‐CSM1.1(m), CANESM2, GFDL‐CM3, and IPSL‐CM5A‐MR models. Comparisons between the observed and simulated river run‐offs and glacier area changes during the periods 2000/2001, 2004/2006, 2008/2009, and 2012/2013 suggest that the simulation is reasonable. Due to increases in precipitation, the annual total run‐off is projected to increase by approximately 2.58–2.73 × 10⁸ m³ in the 2050s and 0.28–1.87 × 10⁸ m³ in the 2100s compared with run‐off in the 2010s based on the RCP2.6 (low greenhouse gas emission) and RCP4.5 (moderate greenhouse gas emission) scenarios, respectively. The contribution of glacier meltwater to river run‐off will more likely decrease to approximately 10% and less than 5% during the 2050s and 2100s, respectively.     

Application of the WEPP model to determine sources of run‐off and sediment in a forested watershed

This study investigates critical run‐off and sediment production sources in a forested Kasilian watershed located in northern Iran. The Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) watershed model was set up to simulate the run‐off and sediment yields. WEPP was calibrated and validated against measured rainfall–run‐off–sediment data. Results showed that simulated run‐off and sediment yields of the watershed were in agreement with the measured data for the calibration and validation periods. While low and medium values of run‐off and sediment yields were adequately simulated by the WEPP model, high run‐off and sediment yield values were underestimated. Performance of the model was evaluated as very good and satisfactory during the calibration and validation stages, respectively. Total soil erosion and sediment load of the study watershed during the study period were determined to be 10 108 t yr^?1 and 8735 t yr^?1, respectively. The northern areas of the watershed with dry farming were identified as the critical erosion prone zones. To prioritize the subwatersheds based on their contribution to the run‐off and sediment production at the watershed's main outlet, unit response approach (URA) was applied. In this regard, subwatersheds close to the main outlet were found to have the highest contribution to sediment yield of the whole watershed. Results indicated that depending on the objective of land and water conservation practices, particularly, for controlling sediment yield at the main outlet, critical areas for implementing the best management practices may be identified through conjunctive application of WEPP and URA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sources of uncertainty in the NRCS CN model: Recognition and solutions

The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number model is one of the most recognizable procedures in the field of rainfall–run‐off estimation. It has been widely applied for different purposes in hydrological models. In spite of its widespread use, some uncertainties have not even clarified and must be examined for its proper application. Particularly, choosing the most representative rainfall–run‐off events, and the coefficient λ that relates the parameters of the model (curve number CN and initial abstraction I_a). In this research, an advanced analysis is developed to evaluate the influence of λ for a set of representative watersheds of the Agricultural Research Service of the United Stated Department of Agriculture. They are characterized by different soil properties, land uses, and climatic conditions. Finally, 2 novel methodologies for the selection of the most representative rainfall–run‐off events and for the adaptation of coefficient λ are included, based on the pattern of rainfall distribution.     

Understanding land use and cover change impacts on run‐off and sediment load at flood events on the Loess Plateau,China

The Loess Plateau has been experiencing large‐scale land use and cover changes (LUCCs) over the past 50 years. It is well known about the significant decreasing trend of annual streamflow and sediment load in the catchments in this area. However, how surface run‐off and sediment load behaved in response to LUCC at flood events remained a research question. We investigated 371 flood events from 1963 to 2011 in a typical medium‐sized catchment within the Plateau in order to understand how LUCC affected the surface run‐off generation and sediment load and their behaviours based on the analysis of return periods. The results showed that the mean annual surface run‐off and sediment load from flood events accounted for 49.6% and 91.8% of their mean annual totals. The reduction of surface run‐off and associated sediment yield in floods explained about 85.0% and 89.2% of declines in the total annual streamflow and sediment load, respectively. The occurrences of flood events and peak sediment concentrations greater than 500 kg/m³ showed a significantly downward trend, yet the counterclockwise loop events still dominated the flood event processes in the catchment. The results suggest that LUCC over the past 50 years resulted in significant changes in the water balance components and associated soil erosion and sediment transportation in the catchment. This was achieved mainly by reducing surface run‐off and sediment yield during floods with return period of less than 5 years. Run‐off–sediment load behaviour during the extreme events with greater than 10‐year return periods has not changed. Outcomes from this study are useful in understanding the eco‐hydrological processes and assisting the sustainable catchment management and land use planning on the Loess Plateau, and the methodologies are general and applicable to similar areas worldwide.     

Assessment of transmission loss in a Mediterranean karstic watershed (Wadi Natuf,West Bank)

Run‐off transmission loss into karstified consolidated aquifer bedrock below ephemeral streams (wadis) has rarely been described nor quantified. This study presents unique data of long‐term high‐resolution field measurements and field observations in a semiarid to subhumid Mediterranean carbonatic mountainshed. The catchment with a 103 km² surface area is subdivided into 5 subcatchments. Coupled run‐off measurements were made in the different stream sections (reaches), and transmission loss calculated from differences in discharge. Rainfall and run‐off observations from 9 automated precipitation gauging stations and 5 pressure transducers for automatic water level recording are complemented by manual measurements during 34 run‐off events covering a total measurement period of 8 consecutive years. Run‐off generation is strongly event based depending on rainfall intensities and depths. Both, run‐off generation and transmission losses are related to spatial patterns of bedrock lithologies (and hydrostratigraphy). Transmission losses range between 62% and 80% of generated run‐off, with most of the smaller events showing 100% transmission loss. Therefore, although event run‐off coefficients in the mountains can reach up to 22%, only 0.11% of total annual precipitation leaves the catchment as run‐off. Most run‐off infiltrates directly into the regional karst aquifers (Upper Cretaceous carbonate series), with transmission loss intensities of up to 40 mm/h below the stream channels. The factors determining run‐off—such as geology, pedology, vegetation cover and land use, relief and morphology, the semiarid to subhumid Mediterranean climate with a strong elevation gradient, and the patchiness of individual storm events distributed over the winter seasons—as well as the lithology and epikarst features of the bedrock are all characteristic for larger areas in the Mediterranean region. Therefore, we expect that our findings can be generalized to a large extent.     

Calibration and validation of a general infiltration model

A general infiltration model proposed by Singh and Yu (1990) was calibrated and validated using a split sampling approach for 191 sets of infiltration data observed in the states of Minnesota and Georgia in the USA. Of the five model parameters, f_c (the final infiltration rate), S_o (the available storage space) and exponent ‘n’ were found to be more predictable than the other two parameters: m (exponent) and a (proportionality factor). A critical examination of the general model revealed that it is related to the Soil Conservation Service (1956) curve number (SCS‐CN) method and its parameter S_o is equivalent to the potential maximum retention of the SCS‐CN method and is, in turn, found to be a function of soil sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity. The general model was found to describe infiltration rate with time varying curve number. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effective run‐off flow length over biological soil crusts on silty loam soils in drylands

Surface hydrological behaviour is important in drylands because it affects the distribution of soil moisture and vegetation and the hydrological functioning of slopes and catchments. Microplot scale run‐off can be relatively easily measured, i.e. by rainfall simulations. However, slope or catchment run‐off cannot be deduced from microplots, requiring long‐time monitoring, because run‐off coefficients decrease with increasing drainage area. Therefore, to determine the slope length covered by run‐off (run‐off length) is crucial to connect scales. Biological soil crusts (BSCs) are good model systems, and their hydrology at slope scale is insufficiently known. This study provides run‐off lengths from BSCs, by field factorial experiments using rainfall simulation, including two BSC types, three rain types, three antecedent soil moistures and four plot lengths. Data were analysed by generalized linear modelling, including vascular plant cover as covariates. Results were the following: (i) the real contributing area is almost always much smaller than the topographical contributing area; (ii) the BSC type is key to controlling run‐off; run‐off length reached 3 m on cyanobacterial crust, but hardly over 1 m on lichen crust; this pattern remained through rain type or soil moisture; (iii) run‐off decreased with BSC development because soil sealing disappears; porosity, biomass and roughness increase and some changes occur in the uppermost soil layer; and (iv) run‐off flow increased with both rain type and soil moisture but run‐off coefficient only with soil moisture (as larger rains increased both run‐off and infiltration); vascular plant cover had a slight effect on run‐off because it was low and random. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variable power‐law scaling of hillslope Hortonian rainfall–runoff processes

Hydrological studies focused on Hortonian rainfall–run‐off scaling have found that the run‐off depth generally declines with the plot length in power‐law scaling. Both the power‐law proportional coefficient and the scaling exponent show great variability for specific conditions, but why and how they vary remain unclear. In the present study, the scaling of hillslope Hortonian rainfall–run‐off processes is investigated for different rainfall, soil infiltration, and hillslope surface characteristics using the physically based cell‐based rainfall‐infiltration‐run‐off model. The results show that both temporally intermittent and steady rainfalls can result in prominent power‐law scaling at the initial stage of run‐off generation. Then, the magnitude of the power‐law scaling decreases gradually due to the decreasing run‐on effect. The power‐law scaling is most sensitive to the rainfall and soil infiltration parameters. When the ratio of rainfall to infiltration exceeds a critical value, the magnitude of the power‐law scaling tends to decrease notably. For different intermittent rainfall patterns, the power‐law exponent varies in the range of ?1.0 to ?0.113, which shows an approximately logarithmic increasing trend for the proportional coefficient as a function of the run‐off coefficient. The scaling is also sensitive to the surface roughness, soil sealing, slope angle, and hillslope geometry because these factors control the run‐off routing and run‐on infiltration processes. These results provide insights into the variable scaling of the Hortonian rainfall–run‐off process, which are expected to benefit modelling of large‐scale hydrological and ecological processes.     

Simulating saturation‐excess surface run‐off in a semi‐distributed hydrological model

The level of complexity, and the number of parameters, to include in a hydrological model is a relatively contentious issue in hydrological modelling. However, it can be argued that explicitly representing important run‐off generation processes can improve the practical value of a model's outputs. This paper explores the benefits of including a new function into an existing semi‐distributed hydrological model (the Pitman model) that is widely used in the sub‐Saharan Africa region. The new function was designed to represent saturation‐excess surface run‐off processes at subcatchment scales and was motivated by the evidence of dambo (low topography riparian areas) type features in many sub‐Saharan river basins. The results for uncertainty versions of the model, with and without the new function, were compared for 25 catchments, which were divided up into those where evidence of dambos exists and those where there is no such evidence. The results suggest that the new function certainly improves the model results for the catchments where dambos exist, but not in situations where saturation‐excess surface run‐off is not expected to occur. The overall conclusion is therefore that the addition of the new function is justified.     

Surface moisture area during rainfall–run‐off events to understand the hydrological dynamics of a basin in a plain region

The understanding of the hydrology of plain basins may be improved by the combined analysis of rainfall–run‐off records and remote sensed surface moisture data. Our work evaluates the surface moisture area (SMA) produced during rainfall–run‐off events in a plain watershed of the Argentine Pampas Region, and studies which hydrological variables are related to the generated SMA. The study area is located in the upper and middle basins of the Del Azul stream, characterized by the presence of small gently hilly areas surrounded by flat landscapes. Data from 9 rainfall–run‐off events were analysed. MODIS surface reflectance data were processed to calculate SMA subsequent to the peak discharge (post‐SMA), and previous to the rainfall events (prev‐SMA), to consider the antecedent wetness. Rainfall–run‐off data included total precipitation depth (P), maximum intensity of rainfall over 6 hr (I6max), surface run‐off registered between the beginning of the event and the day previous to the analysed MODIS scene (R), peak flow (Qp), and flood intensity (IF). In contrast with other works, post‐SMA showed a negative relationship with the R. Three groups of cases were identified: (a) Events of low I6max, high prev‐SMA, and low R were associated with slow and weakly channelized flow over plain areas, leading to saturated overland flow (SOF), with large SMA; (b) events of high I6max, low prev‐SMA, and medium to high R were rapidly transported along the gentle slopes of the basin, related to Hortonian overland flow (HOF) and low post‐SMA; and (c) events of medium to high I6max and prev‐SMA with medium R were related to heterogeneous input‐antecedent‐run‐off conditions combined: Local spatial conditions may have produced HOF or SOF, leading to an averaged response with medium SMA. The interactions between the geomorphology of the basin, the characteristics of the events, and the antecedent conditions may explain the obtained results. This analysis is relevant for the general knowledge of the hydrology of large plains, whose functioning studies are still in their early stages.     

Validity and extension of the SCS‐CN method for computing infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates

A criterion is developed for determining the validity of the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS‐CN) method. According to this criterion, the existing SCS‐CN method is found to be applicable when the potential maximum retention, S, is less than or equal to twice the total rainfall amount. The criterion is tested using published data of two watersheds. Separating the steady infiltration from capillary infiltration, the method is extended for predicting infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates. The extended SCS‐CN method is tested using 55 sets of laboratory infiltration data on soils varying from Plainfield sand to Yolo light clay, and the computed and observed infiltration and rainfall‐excess rates are found to be in good agreement. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.