青藏高原0.8m地温异常与我国汛期降水的关系

用青藏高原５个站从１９５６￣１９８６年共３１年的０．８ｍ地温距平，计算了秋季（９￣１１月）的地温异常，同时考虑了我国汛期（４￣９月）及夏季（６￣８月）的降水相关，发现两者相关很好。不同部位的高原地温异常对我国降水关系的区域是不相同的。本文为中国汛期降水预报提供了依据。     

El Ni(n)o盛期印度夏季风水汽输送在我国华北地区夏季降水异常中的作用

通过对１９５１￣１９９４年我国夏季１６０个站降水资料的分析,指出ＥｌＮｉｎｏ盛期在我国华北地区具有显著的降水负异常,为了解释这种降水负异常产生的原因,利用ＥＣＥＰ／ＮＣＡＲ１９４９￣１９９６年再分析资料,分析了夏季印度季风区的水汽输送在东亚季风区水汽输送中的作用。结果表明,印度季风区的水汽输送与我国华北地区的水汽输送有显著的正相关。ＥｌＮｉｎｏ期间往往对应着弱印度季风,即ＥｌＮｉｎｏ民弱印度夏季     

北半球早春30hPa遥相关型特征,起因及其与赤道海温异常

根据１９５８￣１９９１年资料，用一点相关法得到了３、４月北半球３０ｈＰａ月平均高度场遥相关型，研究了它们的指数特征、起因及其与后期赤道东太平洋厄尔尼诺事件的联系。     

周口地区汛期切变线型大～暴雨预报系统

利用１９８４￣１９９３年６￣８月周口地区９个台站的历史气象资料，确定了大￣暴雨日标准和切变线入型条件，挑选了预报因子，建立了预报方程，并编制系统软件，上机自行运行。经１９９４￣１９９６年试用，预报成功率为７５％。     

1995年气候影响评价

１９９５年度（１９９４年１２月至１９９５年１１月），各地年平均气温１６．６￣２３．１℃。全区大部气温正常；年降水量７１１．７￣３７５３．４毫米，桂林，柳州两地区和左、右江河谷地区偏少１￣２成，其余地区拉近常年或偏多１￣３年，年日照时数１１１９．６￣１７２７．７小时，偏少１２０￣５６０小时，主要气候事件以２￣４月局地性冰包，大风等强对流天气影响较突出，春、夏、秋三季部分县市出现了不同程度的干旱和洪涝     

7～8月份东风与大～暴雨

根据东风和降水关系的天气彦语，统计了延津县１９７１￣１９９０年２０年连续东风日和降水的关系，结果表明，连续２￣４天东风日出现后，未来１￣３天暴雨出现的机率为３０％￣４３％，在满足东风日条件下，引入单站湿度指标，使大￣暴雨预报准确率达７０％以上。     

江西省大暴雨气候特征及其与气象因子场的关系

根据１９５９￣１９８８年的降水资料及１９７１￣１９８７年的天气图资料，分析了江西省大暴雨的时空分布特征及其与地面天气系统之间的关系；同时根据相似分析的基本原理，设计了一个描写气象因子场与大暴雨关系的特征量，并用１９８３￣１９８７年５￣６月的资料进行了特征量的计算分析。     

洛阳区域6月份～暴雨分析

通过对１９８０￣１９９４年洛阳区域６月份大￣暴雨资料分析，归纳了环流类型及大￣暴雨的时空分布特征，提出了一些预报着眼点。     

灵台塬区烤烟丰产栽培试验

１９９２年灵台县什字塬烤烟栽培试验表明，这里光照条件好，气温、降水条件不理想，但采取保墒增温措施后，也可获得较高产量。单株留叶１８片、种植密度２．４万株／ｈｍ￣２时，烤烟产值最高。     

西南及东,南沿海地区旱涝系统的动力学结构研究

利用５００年旱涝时间序列资料计算西南、东部沿海和南部沿海地区旱涝系统动力学结构表明，旱涝系统是一种浑沌系统，其关联维数分别约４．７，４．１，３．８，平均可预报时间为９￣１０、１１￣１４、１２￣１３年，最大可预报时间尺度分别为２２￣２７、２８￣３０、２８￣２９年。     

Modelling innovation and the macroeconomics of low-carbon transitions: theory,perspectives and practical use

Energy and climate policies may have significant economy-wide impacts, which are regularly assessed based on quantitative energy-environment-economy models. These tend to vary in their conclusions on the scale and direction of the likely macroeconomic impacts of a low-carbon transition. This paper traces the characteristic discrepancies in models’ outcomes to their origins in different macro-economic theories, most importantly their treatment of technological innovation and finance. We comprehensively analyse the relevant branches of macro-innovation theory and group them into two classes: ‘Equilibrium’ and ‘Non-equilibrium’. While both approaches are rigorous and self-consistent, they frequently yield opposite conclusions for the economic impacts of low-carbon policies. We show that model outcomes are mainly determined by their representations of monetary and finance dimensions, and their interactions with investment, innovation and technological change. Improving these in all modelling approaches is crucial for strengthening the evidence base for policy making and gaining a more consistent picture of the macroeconomic impacts of achieving emissions reductions objectives. The paper contributes towards the ongoing effort of enhancing the transparency and understanding of sophisticated model mechanisms applied to energy and climate policy analysis. It helps tackle the overall ‘black box’ critique, much-cited in policy circles and elsewhere.

Key policy insights

• Quantitative models commissioned by policy-makers to assess the macroeconomic impacts of climate policy generate contradictory outcomes and interpretations.

• The source of the differences in model outcomes originates primarily from assumptions on the workings of the financial sector and the nature of money, and of how these interact with processes of low-carbon energy innovation and technological change.

• Representations of innovation and technological change are incomplete in energy-economy-environment models, leading to limitations in the assessment of the impacts of climate-related policies.

• All modelling studies should state clearly their underpinning theoretical school and their treatment of finance and innovation.

• A strong recommendation is given for modellers of energy-economy systems to improve their representations of money and finance.

     

Detection of radical species formed by the ozonolysis of α-pinene

Highly reactive free radical species have been subject of many toxicological in vivo and in vitro studies because of the oxidative cell damage they cause. Similar species have been postulated to be the key intermediates formed during many environmental chamber reactions and atmospheric oxidation of organic species present in the troposphere. Thus, detection and characterization of these transient radical species are important steps in understanding the atmospheric chemistry and confirming the reaction pathways involved in secondary organic aerosol formation. Study of these species is particularly difficult because of their short life-times. To facilitate such studies, 5,5-dimethyl-1-pyrroline-N-oxide (DMPO) and diethyl-(2-methyl-1-oxido-3,4-dihydro-2H-pyrrol-2-yl) phosphonate (DEPMPO) nitrone spin traps were used to capture radicals formed from the α-pinene/ozone reaction. Electrospray ionization/tandem mass spectrometry (ESI/MSⁿ) was applied to elucidate their structures. Characteristic fragments with m/z 114, m/z 130 and m/z 148 with the DMPO trap, and m/z 236, m/z 252, and m/z 270 with the DEPMPO trap indicated the existence of alkyl, alkoxyl and peroxyl radicals, respectively.     

全球热带海表温度异常的主振荡型分析

用主振荡型分析方法对全球热带海表温度异常进行了研究,得到了传播型和驻波型的几种曲型模态,指出ＥｌＮｉｎｏ／ＬａＮｉｎａ现象与这几种典型模态的组合有关,最显著的两个典型模态周期分别为准４ａ和２ａ,周期相近的振荡还具有不同的空间型态,热带印度洋与太平洋４个Ｎｉｎｏ海区ＳＳＴＡ呈同位相的关系。     

基于统计学的中国典型大城市CO2排放达峰研究

对选取的36个中国典型大城市,分析2005—2019年直接CO2排放与总CO2排放特征,构建基于条件判断函数和Mann-Kendall趋势分析检验法的城市CO2排放达峰判断模型,判断36个城市排放是否达峰,并对达峰城市特征和处于不同排放阶段的典例城市进行深入分析.结果表明,36个典型大城市中,昆明、深圳与武汉3个城市已...     

华南飑线系统对流与层云区闪电起始和通道位置处的云微物理特征

利用广州S波段双偏振雷达观测数据和低频电场探测阵列三维闪电定位数据,分析了2017年5月4日和5月8日华南地区两次飑线过程中闪电起始和通道位置处的雷达偏振参量和降水粒子特征.两次飑线中约80％的闪电起始和通道(统称闪电放电)定位于对流区.对流区闪电放电位置处的雷达反射率(ZH)要比层云区平均大4～5 dBZ,其它偏振参...     

Bookkeeping rather than climate policy making: national mitigation strategies in Western Europe

Climate change mitigation is a wicked problem that cuts horizontally across sectors and vertically across levels of government. To address it effectively, governments around the world, in particular in the EU, have developed several generations of multi-sectoral national mitigation strategies (NMS) since the early 1990s. Although NMS became the main effort to systematically coordinate mitigation policies, few works have studied them comparatively so far. The present article fills this gap by analysing how the EU-15 group of countries operationalized climate protection through NMS. First, we introduce the three roles policy strategies usually aim to fulfil: besides being policy documents they also represent governance processes (supposed to coordinate sectoral implementation), and capacity-building efforts. Empirically, we then explore the rationale, origins and prevalence of NMS. Subsequently, we characterize them as policy documents (with regards to their contents and structures) and as governance processes that address capacity building only implicitly. Based on existing assessments we finally review some performance indications of NMS. We find that in particular second- and third-generation NMS aimed to take their governance function seriously but resembled ‘lacklustre bookkeeping' of emissions, targets and mitigation options. Instead of approximating NMS towards their obviously overcharging governance function, we suggest to recalibrate them towards their communication and capacity-building function in a way that goes beyond bookkeeping.

Policy relevance

The present article shows that NMS fail to effectively govern climate change mitigation across a broad range of sectoral policy domains. Since most European countries have adopted not one but up to three generations of NMS since the 1990s, this finding is highly relevant for them – and for all others aiming to adopt similarly broad strategies. Instead of piling one strategy on top of another irrespective of their implementation, and instead of abolishing mitigation strategies altogether, we recommend recalibrating them towards what they can realistically accomplish: effective communication and capacity building so that NMS can advance from lacklustre bookkeeping to actively promoting a government-wide climate change mitigation vision. The article can help governments to realise that renewing integrated strategies such as NMS without overhauling them comes close to flogging a dead horse.     

青岛地区气候变化对动物物候变化的影响研究

基于青岛地区气候和动物物候观测资料,分析了气候和动物物候变化特征及两者之间的相关关系。1986—2016年青岛地区蚱蝉始鸣期表现为小幅波动变化,蟋蟀的始鸣期则呈先显著推迟后显著提前的变化趋势,青蛙和家燕的始鸣期均有显著推迟的趋势。以上4种动物的绝鸣期均显著提前,间隔期均明显缩短。受全球气候变暖的影响,青岛地区气温表现为显著增温趋势,日照时数和平均风速均呈显著减小趋势,而降水对气候变暖的响应较小。日照时数的减少对4种动物物候期的影响最大,有利于4种动物绝鸣期的提前和间隔期的缩短以及家燕始鸣期的推迟;蟋蟀和青蛙的物候期对气温有明显的响应,蚱蝉和家燕对气温的变化不敏感;风速的减小有利于蚱蝉、家燕绝鸣期的提前和间隔期的缩短,但却导致青蛙绝鸣期的推迟和间隔期的延长。多种气候因子共同作用决定了动物物候期的变化。除气候条件对动物物候期变化的影响之外,动物之间食物链的制约关系在一定程度上也对物候变化有影响。     

Challenges to the development of carbon markets in China

China has introduced several pilot emission trading schemes to build the basis for a national scheme. The potential scale of this initiative raises prospects for a regional carbon trading network as a way to further engage other major Asian economies. However, the Chinese carbon markets rest upon a unique political-economic context and institutional environment that are likely to limit their development and viability. This article offers an overview of such structural economic and political constraints. Four main challenges are identified, namely, inadequate domestic demand, limited financial involvement, incomplete regulatory infrastructure, and excessive government intervention. The first two challenges concern economic dimensions and may be partially addressed by the incentives created by the newly introduced emission trading schemes. The other two are more deeply entrenched in the dominant political system and governing practice. They require fundamental changes to the ways in which the state and the market interact. The success of China's carbon market reform depends crucially on the ability of the ongoing efforts to transform the distorted state–market relationship.

Policy relevance

The burgeoning carbon markets offer opportunities for emissions mitigation at lower costs and enable circulation of a new form of capital, i.e. carbon credits, across borders. China accounts for a gigantic share of global GHG emissions and has the potential to significantly scale up these opportunities. There are clear implications for market developers and participants worldwide, including climate policy makers who attempt to link their emission trading schemes to other schemes, firms who seek to take advantage of the inexpensive carbon offsets generated in developing countries, international financial institutions who endeavour to establish their business in an emerging major carbon market, etc. This article can inform their decisions by identifying key issues that may undermine their ability to achieve these goals. Policy makers and stakeholders will benefit from this analysis, which shows how the Chinese carbon markets operate in ways that may be different from their experience elsewhere.     

Verification of compliance with GHG emission targets: annex B countries

The focus of this study is on the preparatory detection of uncertain greenhouse gas (GHG) emission changes (also termed emission signals) under the Kyoto Protocol. Preparatory signal detection is a measure that should be taken prior to/during negotiation of the Protocol. It allows the ranking of countries under the Protocol according to their realized versus their agreed emission changes and in terms of both certainty and credibility. Controlling GHGs is affected by uncertainty and may be costly. Thus, knowing whether each nation is doing its part is in the public interest. At present, however, countries to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) are obliged to include in the reporting of their annual inventories direct or alternative estimates of the uncertainty associated with these, consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) good practice guidance reports. As a consequence, inventory uncertainty is monitored, but not regulated, under the Kyoto Protocol. Although uncertainties are becoming increasingly available, monitored emissions and uncertainties are still dealt with separately. In our study we analyze estimates of both emission changes and uncertainties to advance the evaluation of countries and their performance under the Protocol. Our analysis allows supply and demand of emissions credits to be examined in consideration of uncertainty. For the purpose of our exercise, we make use of the Undershooting and Verification Time concept described by Jonas et al. (Clim Change doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9914-6, 2010).     

The nexus between nationally determined contributions and technology needs assessments: a global analysis

The role of technology in combatting climate change through mitigation and adaptation to its inevitable impacts has been acknowledged and highlighted by the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In the developing world, this has received particular attention through the technology needs assessment (TNA) process. As Parties put forward their national pledges to combat climate change, the scarcity of resources makes it important to assess (i) whether national processes designed to tackle climate change are working together and (ii) whether existing national processes should be terminated with the initiation of new ones. This study presents an assessment of the existing TNA process and its linkages to the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. The conclusions stem from an assessment of the TNAs completed to date, as well as 71 NDCs from developing countries at various stages of the TNA process. The analyses show that further developing the TNAs could play a vital role in filling gaps in the existing NDCs, specifically those relating to identifying appropriate technologies, their required enabling framework conditions and preparing implementation plans for their transfer and diffusion.

Key policy insights

• The full potential of the TNAs has still to be rolled out in many countries.

• Developing countries can maximize the potential of their TNAs by further developing them to explicitly analyse what is needed to implement existing NDCs, including by better aligning their focus, scope and up-to-dateness with the priority sectors included in the NDCs.

• Requests of developing countries for international assistance, through technology transfer, will be better guided by the completion of the TNA process.

• Policies for strengthening the NDCs will benefit from the results of completed, ongoing and future TNA processes.