用非线性重整化方法反演大气折射率廓线的数值试验

本文研究采用非线性重整化方法反演大气折射率廓线，以代替传统的探测方法，结果表明表明非线性重整化方法能够反演出人们所关心的局部大气折射率廓线的改变。     

低高度角地基GPS联合反演大气折射率廓线

为充分利用电磁波在大气中传播所携带的信息反演大气折射率廓线,提高低高度角地基GPS反演折射率廓线的精度,本文通过多目标优化反演算法NSGA-II,基本实现了GPS电磁波传播损耗和相位延迟观测量的最优联合反演。数值试验表明,联合反演效果明显优于传统的GA(Genetic Algorithm)单目标反演算法,加噪试验进一步证明了最优联合反演算法在反演折射率廓线方面的可行性及优越性。     

应用ATOVS资料反演大气温湿廓线

本文用牛顿迭代的方法反演NOAA-15极轨气象卫星ATOVS资料，求解大气温度廓线和水汽廓线，本文利用一阶变分原理从辐射传输方程中得到了大气温度、水汽权重函数的解析形式，并改进了传统使用的线性迭代方法，利用牛顿非线性迭代方法求解大气表层温度，大气温度廓线及大气水汽廓线，并根据大气参量的自相关性，将大气温度廓线、大气水汽廓线用经验正交函数（EOF）的线性组合表示，减少了要反演的参数，提高了反演稳定性和迭代速度。     

风云三号气象卫星掩星大气产品精度的初步检验

风云三号气象卫星C星于北京时间2013年9月23日成功发射,其上搭载了中国第一个以掩星方式探测中性大气和电离层大气的民用新型有效载荷——全球导航卫星掩星探测仪(Global Navigation Satellite System Occultation Sounder, GNOS)。GNOS可以接收GPS(Global Positioning System)导航卫星和中国北斗导航卫星信号,进而得到全球范围内的中性大气和电离层大气的探测结果。利用常规无线电探空资料,对GNOS接收GPS信号的掩星探测大气产品(包括折射率、密度、温度以及湿度廓线)进行检验,结果表明:在近地面至25 km垂直范围内,GNOS掩星大气产品折射率廓线和干大气密度廓线的平均偏差在0.5%左右,标准偏差在2%左右;温度廓线的平均偏差约为0.5 K,标准偏差约为2 K;水汽廓线的标准偏差在6 km 以下为0.25—1.0 g/kg。对于风云卫星首次尝试的掩星观测技术,GNOS掩星产品的精度基本达到预定目标,在未来还有改进的空间。     

晴空时大气红外遥感及其反演问题 I. 理论研究

本文首先研究了晴空情况下大气温、湿廓线及表层温度等参数的同步反演问题。利用一阶变分原理，从红外辐射传输方程中得到了大气温度、水汽权重函数的解析形式，然后利用牛顿非线性迭代法求解大气温度廓线、大气水汽廓线和表层温度。并从“最佳信息层”的概念出发，指出水汽遥感反演的两个特点。     

利用非流体静力伴随模式同化大气无线电折射率

近来，基于全球定位系统（ＧＰＳ）提出了一种遥感水汽的新途径。根据ＧＰＳ折射率测量结果能够反演出温度和水汽和垂直廓线。对于气象部门来说，这是一种有价值的潜在资料源。基于宾州／ＮＣＡＲ的中尺度模式的绝热版本及其伴随模式发展了一种四维资料同化系统。然后，进行了一系列观测系统模拟试验来评估ＧＰＳ推算的大气折射资料的效果。结果表明，大气折射率同化在反演水汽垂直廓线中是非常有效的。推算出的水汽场的精度明显比用传统反演技术得到的精度要好。大气折射率同化也能提供有效的温度信息。资料同化结果对于附加在模拟折射率观测值上的随机误差较不敏感。而它们对于观测值的空间分辨率却非常敏感。谱分析表明，湿度场具有较小尺度的变化且对大气折射率观测值的分辨率比温度更敏感。当折射率观测值分辨率较粗时，单个观测值同化得到的结果比在模式格点上内插的观测值同化的结果要好。沿大约２４０ｋｍ距离（ＧＰＳ折射率观测的特征尺度）平均的折射率观测值的同化对温度和湿度场的反演仍得到相当好的结果。     

行星尺度定常波经向波列波射线路径及截获带的季节特征

本文采用平均西风廓线的实际资料，对冬夏季节遥相关经向波列特征进行了研究，本文数值分析表明，由于冬夏平均西风廓线的季节差异，遥相关波列也呈显著的季节特征:波射线的传播、截获范围、波折射率随纬度变化状态、大地形与海洋热源因子引起经向波列共振特征均表现出明显的季节差异。本文还探讨了大地形、热源因子与遥相关经向波列特征的相关关系。     

GPSRO同化对天山暴雪影响的模拟研究

GPS掩星资料(GPSRO)业务同化的正效果已经在多个国家的数值预报中心得到证实,但在新疆数值预报业务中尚未应用。为验证GPSRO同化对天山暴雪预报的影响,本文以GFS数据为背景场,用WRFDA同化了GPS掩星事件反演的折射率和温湿廓线,评估了其对2014年12月07日08时到09日08时的天山暴雪过程预报效果的影响,对比分析了两者同化产生的影响半径。研究发现,GPS掩星温湿廓线和折射率同化对此次天山暴雪过程预报均有正效果,改善幅度前者劣于后者。同化后风场U、V分量沿风向方向的影响半径均大于垂直风向方向,其增量极值中心位置向下风方向偏移。温度、湿度场的分析增量分布均接近各向同性,增量极值中心位置与掩星事件位置相对应。同化后温度分析均以增暖为主,湿度分析以增湿为主,气压分析以减压为主。温湿廓线同化产生的资料影响半径平均大于折射率同化产生的影响半径。并且,在任何网格点,无论是温度场还是比湿场,温湿廓线同化产生的分析差的绝对值大于折射率同化。温湿廓线与折射率同化后风场的分析增量整体上均随着高度的增加先减后增,温度场分析增量整体上随高度升高而增大,气压分析增量随高度升高单调递增, 比湿分析增量绝对值的大值区主要集中在500hPa以下的低空,其最大值位于700hPa附近。     

不同天气条件下脉冲激光风廓线仪测风性能

将2012年5月21日-8月16日广东省湛江市东海岛气象观测站内脉冲激光风廓线仪WINDCUBE V2与气象站内的100 m测风塔进行同步观测试验,在经过观测数据同步性调整、有效性检验和代表性样本筛选基础上,分大小风和有无降雨天气过程,对杯式测风仪、超声风速仪与激光风廓线仪的同步测风数据进行比较,结果显示:脉冲激光风廓线仪与杯式测风仪测量水平风参数的相关性较好,10 min平均风速、风向的线性拟合度均大于0.99,3 s阵风风速的拟合度大于0.96,湍流强度的拟合度大于0.67,风速标准差的拟合度大于0.79;大风情况下,激光风廓线仪对风参数的测量效果更佳。无降雨情况下,激光风廓线仪的测量效果较降雨时略好,10 min降水量小于15 mm的降雨对这款激光风廓线仪的风速、风向、湍流强度、3 s阵风风速的测量没有显著影响,对风速标准差有一定影响。当水平风速增大和有降雨时,激光风廓线仪对垂直速度的测量效果欠佳。该对比分析可为激光风廓线仪观测数据的可靠性提供参考。     

非线性VAD反演低层风廓线拟合阶数优化方法

结合理论和SoWMEX试验 (西南气流试验,Southwest Monsoon Experiment) 的连续多普勒天气雷达观测资料和广东省阳江雷达资料, 对非线性速度方位显示 (非线性VAD) 方法反演低层低于2 km垂直风廓线精度和能力进行定量分析。结果表明:非线性VAD基本能反演出低层风廓线在空间和时间上的演变。但当雷达径向速度数据在方位存在较大的连续性缺测、体积扫描仰角较少时,因传统非线性VAD采用的速度方位显示 (VAD) 方法拟合阶数和垂直拟合阶数过高,反演的低层风廓线会存在较大误差,造成不合理高风速区和风廓线不连续。通过实际观测资料统计分析反演参数对非线性VAD的影响,提出基于连续性数据缺测间隔和不同仰角的多少的VAD和垂直拟合阶数动态调整方法。同锋面降水和台风降水两典型个例的实际探空比对显示,调整后的非线性VAD显著改进低层风廓线反演精度,反演的风廓线结构和变化与实况相符,反演平均误差小于2 m·s-1。     

An improved Lorentzian technique for evaluating resonance characteristics of the Earth-ionosphere cavity

The effectiveness of various formulations of the Lorentzian procedure for estimating Schumann resonance (SR) characteristics of the Earth-ionosphere waveguide from transient electromagnetic signals is tested in the limits of a simplified, spherically uniform model of the resonator. It is shown that the major improvement, in comparison with the “classic” Lorentzian formulation, is achieved by consideration of the intra-modal phase interference. The effect of the “limited frequency dispersion” inherent in the “classic” Lorentzian approach – that is of substantial importance at the lowest SR modes – can be effectively neutralized by interpolating the values for the propagation parameter between the adjacent modal frequencies. Several practical aspects of applying the Lorentzian procedure to transient signals are also discussed.     

Estimation of the error of lidar determination of the transparency of low-turbidity atmosphere

Considered is the method of determination of atmospheric turbidity using weak lidar signals when the problem is mathematically incorrect due to the presence of the background noise. An accuracy of the method can be increased by means of using the procedure of effective averaging and linear approximation of the transmission in the case of the low attenuation coefficient.     

Robust estimation of background noise and signal detection in climatic time series

We present a new technique for isolating climate signals in time series with a characteristic red noise background which arises from temporal persistence. This background is estimated by a robust procedure that, unlike conventional techniques, is largely unbiased by the presence of signals immersed in the noise. Making use of multiple-taper spectral analysis methods, the technique further provides for a distinction between purely harmonic (periodic) signals, and broader-band (quasiperiodic) signals. The effectiveness of our signal detection procedure is demonstrated with synthetic examples that simulate a variety of possible periodic and quasiperiodic signals immersed in red noise. We apply our methodology to historical climate and paleoclimate time series examples. Analysis of a 3 million year sediment core reveals significant periodic components at known astronomical forcing periodicities and a significant quasiperiodic 100 year peak. Analysis of a roughly 1500 year tree-ring reconstruction of Scandinavian summer temperatures suggests significant quasiperiodic signals on a near-century timescale, an interdecadal 16–18 year timescale, within the interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) band, and on a quasibiennial timescale. Analysis of the 144 year record of Great Salt Lake monthly volume change reveals a significant broad band of significant interdecadal variability, ENSO-timescale peaks, an annual cycle and its harmonics. Focusing in detail on the historical estimated global-average surface temperature record, we find a highly significant secular trend relative to the estimated red noise background, and weakly significant quasiperiodic signals within the ENSO band. Decadal and quasibiennial signals are marginally significant in this series.     

Acoustic Travel Time Tomography – A Method for Remote Sensingof the Atmospheric Surface Layer

Summary Acoustic travel time tomography is demonstrated as a technique for remote monitoring of near surface air temperature and wind fields. An experimental procedure is presented which provides line-averaged values of the effective sound speed changing with air temperature and wind vector. In this study the travel times of sound signals at defined propagation paths between different acoustic sources and receivers were measured. The travel time data were inverted into effective sound speed values by using a special tomographic algorithm (Simultaneous Iterative Reconstruction Technique) to obtain area-averaged meteorological quantities (air temperature, wind speed). The method of acoustic travel time tomography will be applied to the atmosphere in order to directly provide spatially averaged data which are needed for evaluation of large-eddy simulation and microscale meteorological models as well as to complete conventional point measurements. Received November 4, 1998 Revised April 7, 1999     

Identifying coherent spatiotemporal modes in time-uncertain proxy paleoclimate records

High-resolution sedimentary paleoclimate proxy records offer the potential to expand the detection and analysis of decadal- to centennial-scale climate variability during recent millennia, particularly within regions where traditional high-resolution proxies may be short, sparse, or absent. However, time uncertainty in these records potentially limits a straightforward objective identification of broad-scale patterns of climate variability. Here, we describe a procedure for identifying common patterns of spatiotemporal variability from time uncertain sedimentary records. This approach, which we term Monte Carlo Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis, uses iterative age modeling and eigendecomposition of proxy time series to isolate common regional patterns and estimate uncertainties. As a test case, we apply this procedure to a diverse set of time-uncertain lacustrine proxy records from East Africa. We also perform a pseudoproxy experiment using climate model output to examine the ability of the method to extract shared anomalies given known signals. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of our approach, including possible extensions of the technique.     

Weather maps classification over Greek domain based on isobaric line patterns

The paper presents a semi-supervised weather classification method based on 850-hPa isobaric level maps. A preprocessing step is employed, where isolines of geopotential height are extracted from weather map images via an image processing procedure. Α feature extraction stage follows where two techniques are applied. The first technique implements phase space reconstruction, and yields multidimensional delay distributions. The second technique is based on chain code representation of signals, from which histogram features are derived. Similarity measures are used to compare multidimensional data and the k-means algorithm is applied in the final stage. The method is applied over the area of Greece, and the resulting catalogues are compared to a subjective classification for this area. Numerical experiments with datasets derived from the European Meteorological Bulletin archives exhibit an up to 91 % accurate agreement with the subjective weather patterns.     

激光雷达能见度回波信号去噪算法

激光雷达能见度仪是探测大气能见度的有效手段,但其回波信号微弱且易受各种噪声干扰.抑制背景噪声并从中提取有用信号,对提高能见度反演精度十分重要.采用经验模态分解算法对回波信号进行分解及重构,达到了良好的去噪效果.仿真试验表明,经验模态分解算法有效提高了回波信号的输出信噪比,降低了测量值的均方根误差.通过处理晴天、阴天、雾...     

天气雷达回波信号去噪中小波分析应用

天气雷达回波信号不可避免地包含了噪声,噪声的存在严重影响了对雷达回波信号的精确分析。为了提高雷达回波信号的信噪比,采用了近年来在数字信号处理领域极速发展的小波分析方法,通过试验分析确定小波基函数、分解层数、阈值和阈值量化方式。结果表明,小波分析去噪的方法能有效地抑制叠加在雷达回波信号上的噪声,去噪后的雷达回波信号信噪比明显提高,具有较高的实用价值。     

L与X波段气象卫星信道概率统计特性

为研究大气空间物理层对气象卫星通信的影响,将影响气象卫星信道特性的天气状态分为晴空少云、多云和阴雨天气3种情况,根据不同的静态信道特性分别推导了地面接收气象卫星信号的包络变化规律服从Rayleigh分布 (阴雨天气)、Rice分布 (部分阴影遮挡)、Lognormal分布 (全阴影遮挡) 和Gauss分布 (晴空少云),并建立了相应的概率分布 (PDF) 仿真模型。计算机仿真结果表明:不同传输特性下接收信号组成成分的不同造成其包络概率密度曲线的差异,仿真模型与理论模型的概率密度曲线符合程度很好,验证了理论分析的正确性和有效性,为分析地面接收的气象卫星的数据误码率提供了理论基础。     

近百年及未来百年PDO位相年代际转变检测及其早期预警信号研究

本文基于临界慢化的理论,采用太平洋年代际振荡（Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO）指数的近百年（1900～2019年）历史数据及未来百年（2006～2100年）模式模拟数据,首先通过滑动t检验确定PDO位相转变的时间,进而借助于表征临界慢化现象的方差和自相关系数,研究了PDO年代际位相转折的早期预警信号。结果表明：（1）近百年来PDO发生了4次显著的位相转变,每次位相转变前的5～10年可以提取到早期预警信号;（2）通过对CMIP5气候模式资料计算得到的PDO进行统计合成得到未来百年的PDO序列,检测结果表明在2040年和2080年前后发生年代际转折,转折前的5～10年能够检测到早期预警信号;（3）近百年和未来百年PDO序列的位相转变及早期预警信号研究证实在PDO发生位相转变之前方差和自相关系数总能提前数年给出预警信号,也揭示了未来PDO的转折时间。