2D numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion: examples from the Marche Region,Italy

A detailed numerical simulation of the ground motion and a site response analysis for two towns in the Marche Region (Treia and Cagli) is carried out on the basis of structural models deduced from available geological and geophysical data. In both cases, the reference event is an M = 5.7 earthquake associated with a normal fault located beneath each town. The ground motion is computed using the 2D spectral element method (SPEM 2D). The method solves the propagation of the seismic field through complex geological structures and enables an estimate of the effects of deep crustal structure, superficial geology, and topography on ground motion. Numerical simulations of the seismic field are performed along 2D vertical planes containing the seismic source. Strong ground motion has not been yet recorded in the two towns; therefore, the numerical simulation of ground motion represents a way to overcome the lack of instrumental data. The simulations carried out for Treia show that ground motion is influenced by both source mechanism and effects due to propagation through the geological structure, while ground motion in Cagli features strong local effects, caused by the presence of alluvial deposits under a large area of the town.     

2008年青海大柴旦Mw6.3地震地面运动模拟

2008年11月10日在青海柴达木盆地北缘发生了大柴旦M_W6.3地震,为了研究该地震的区域地震波传播与地面运动特征,本文利用地质资料和地壳速度结构研究成果,构建了柴达木盆地及周边区域三维传播介质模型,采用有限差分方法模拟了大柴旦地震波场传播过程以及地面运动分布特征.结果表明,柴达木盆地对波场传播有明显影响,表现为地震波传入盆地后在边界产生次生面波,盆地沉积物对地震波具有围陷作用,地震地面运动在盆地内振幅增大、持时延长.模拟结果给出的地震地面运动峰值速度分布以及理论地震图均和观测结果符合较好,反映数值模拟较好地给出了观测地面运动的主要特征以及传播介质模型的合理性.     

Finite Difference Simulations of Seismic Wave Propagation for the 2007 Mw 6.6 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki Earthquake: Validity of Models and Reliable Input Ground Motion in the Near-Field

Finite difference simulations of seismic wave propagation are performed in the Niigata area, Japan, for the 2007 Mw 6.6 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-Oki earthquake at low frequencies. We test three 3D structural models built independently in various studies. First aftershock simulations are carried out. The model based on 3D tomography yields correct body waves in the near field, but later phases are imperfectly reproduced due to the lack of shallow sediment layers; other models based on various 1D/2D profiles and geological interpretation provide good site responses but generate seismic phases that may be shifted from those actually observed. Next, for the mainshock simulations, we adopt two different finite source models that differ in the near-field ground motion, especially above the fault plane (but under the sea) and then along the coastline. Each model is found to be calibrated differently for the given stations. For engineering purposes, the variations observed in simulated ground motion are significant, but for seismological purposes, additional parameter calibrations would be possible for such a complex 3D case.     

Development of regional simulation of seismic ground‐motion and induced liquefaction enhanced by GPU computing

Much research has been conducted for physics‐based ground‐motion simulation to reproduce seismic response of soil and structures precisely and to mitigate damages caused by earthquakes. We aimed at enabling physics‐based ground‐motion simulations of complex three‐dimensional (3D) models with multiple materials, such as a digital twin (high‐fidelity 3D model of the physical world that is constructed in cyberspace). To perform one case of such simulation requires high computational cost and it is necessary to perform a number of simulations for the estimation of parameters or consideration of the uncertainty of underground soil structure data. To overcome this problem, we proposed a fast simulation method using graphics processing unit computing that enables a simulation with small computational resources. We developed a finite‐element‐based method for large‐scale 3D seismic response analysis with small programming effort and high maintainability by using OpenACC, a directive‐based parallel programming model. A lower precision variable format was introduced to achieve further speeding up of the simulation. For an example usage of the developed method, we applied the developed method to soil liquefaction analysis and conducted two sets of simulations that compared the effect of countermeasures against soil liquefaction: grid‐form ground improvement to strengthen the earthquake resistance of existing houses and replacement of liquefiable backfill soil of river wharves for seismic reinforcement of the wharf structure. The developed method accelerates the simulation and enables us to quantitatively estimate the effect of countermeasures using the high‐fidelity 3D soil‐structure models on a small cluster of computers.     

Physics‐based probabilistic seismic hazard and loss assessment in large urban areas: A simplified application to Istanbul

A set of 3D physics‐based numerical simulations (PBS) of possible earthquakes scenarios in Istanbul along the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey) is considered in this article to provide a comprehensive example of application of PBS to probabilistic seismic hazard (PSHA) and loss assessment in a large urban area. To cope with the high‐frequency (HF) limitations of PBS, numerical results are first postprocessed by a recently introduced technique based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), providing broadband waveforms with a proper correlation of HF and low‐frequency (LF) portions of ground motion as well as a proper spatial correlation of peak values also at HF, that is a key feature for the seismic risk application at urban scale. Second, before application to PSHA, a statistical analysis of residuals is carried out to ensure that simulated results provide a set of realizations with a realistic within‐ and between‐event variability of ground motion. PBS results are then applied in a PSHA framework, adopting both the “generalized attenuation function” (GAF) approach, and a novel “footprint” (FP)‐based approach aiming at a convenient and direct application of PBS into PSHA. PSHA results from both approaches are then compared with those obtained from a more standard application of PSHA with empirical ground motion models. Finally, the probabilistic loss assessment of an extended simplified portfolio of buildings is investigated, comparing the results obtained adopting the different approaches: (i) GMPE, (ii) GAF, and (iii) FP. Only FP turned out to have the capability to account for the specific features of source and propagation path, while preserving the proper physically based spatial correlation characteristics, as required for a reliable loss estimate on a building portfolio spatially distributed over a large urban area.     

1976年MS7.8唐山地震断层动态破裂及近断层强地面运动特征

采用美国南加州地震委员会（SCEC）Steven Day博士提供的三维有限差分断层瞬态破裂动力学模型（3D-FDM）,以1976年唐山M_S7.8地震为例,从简化的断层双侧破裂模式出发,对该地震发震断层的动态破裂过程及近断层地表运动特征进行了仿真模拟和计算.研究区域为围绕发震断层200 km×140 km×40 km（深度）的长方形块体组成,模拟计算的空间分辨率和时间分辨率分别为200 m和0.012 s,形成的空间网格节点数为1051×701×201.在DELL小型工作站上,我们实现了对源程序的移植和并行计算.同时,通过引进计算机可视化技术,对模拟数据进行了3D/4D解释分析.另外,在对源程序修改过程中,实现了对京津唐地区三维地壳速度结构的嵌入,在一定程度上增强了对地震波传播以及地面运动模拟的真实性,并讨论了地震破裂的方向性对近断层地表运动的影响.最后根据初步研究结果结合京津唐地区活动断层构造特征,对唐山M_S7.8级主震后随之而来的1976滦县M_S7.1级余震及宁河M_S6.9级余震的动态触发机制提出了新的解释.由于受主震破裂方向性作用的影响,使得主震对后续两个较大余震产生的动态应力变化的峰值在断层的走滑方向上较大,为2~3 MPa,在逆冲方向上较小,为0.1~0.2 MPa.即唐山主震的发生使得其周边的应力场有一个瞬态的应力调整,唐山主震对后续余震的发生有促发作用.     

Integration of 3D large‐scale earthquake simulations into the assessment of the seismic risk of Bogota,Colombia

Bogotá, the capital city of Colombia, is mostly located on a lacustrine soil deposit surrounded by hills in a central plateau of the eastern cordillera of the Colombian Andes. This highly populated urban area is exposed to a significant seismic hazard from local and regional fault systems. In addition, the potential ground motion amplification during earthquakes due to the presence of soft soil deposits, along with the effects of the surface and subsurface topography, can strongly influence the seismic hazard and consequently the seismic risk to the city. This study aims to develop a physics‐based framework to generate synthetic ground records that can help better understand the seismic response of the basin and other amplification effects during strong earthquake shaking in the region, and to incorporate these effects into the estimation of seismic risk. To this end, a set of simulations were first conducted on Hercules, the wave propagation octree‐based finite element simulator developed by the Quake Group at Carnegie Mellon University, to identify the impacts of hypothetical strong earthquakes scenarios. Then, the results from these simulations were integrated with the exposure and vulnerability information previously developed for the main building constructions in the city to assess the seismic risk in the region under different conditions of analysis. Results from this more detailed model are compared with previously published results from simplified models. Sensitivity analyses help identify critical aspects that should be considered in the future to improve the seismic risk assessment of infrastructure.     

Validation of (not‐historical) large‐event near‐fault ground‐motion simulations for use in civil engineering applications

Ground‐motion simulations generated from physics‐based wave propagation models are gaining increasing interest in the engineering community for their potential to inform the performance‐based design and assessment of infrastructure residing in active seismic areas. A key prerequisite before the ground‐motion simulations can be used with confidence for application in engineering domains is their comprehensive and rigorous investigation and validation. This article provides a four‐step methodology and acceptance criteria to assess the reliability of simulated ground motions of not historical events, which includes (1) the selection of a population of real records consistent with the simulated scenarios, (2) the comparison of the distribution of Intensity Measures (IMs) from the simulated records, real records, and Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs), (3) the comparison of the distribution of simple proxies for building response, and (4) the comparison of the distribution of Engineering Demand Parameters (EDPs) for a realistic model of a structure. Specific focus is laid on near‐field ground motions (<10km) from large earthquakes (M_w7), for which the database of real records for potential use in engineering applications is severely limited. The methodology is demonstrated through comparison of (2490) near‐field synthetic records with 5 Hz resolution generated from the Pitarka et al (2019) kinematic rupture model with a population of (38) pulse‐like near‐field real records from multiple events and, when applicable, with NGA‐W2 GMPEs. The proposed procedure provides an effective method for informing and advancing the science needed to generate realistic ground‐motion simulations, and for building confidence in their use in engineering domains.     

1976年M_S7.8唐山地震断层动态破裂及近断层强地面运动特征

采用美国南加州地震委员会(SCEC)Steven Day博士提供的三维有限差分断层瞬态破裂动力学模型(3D-FDM),以1976年唐山M_S7.8地震为例,从简化的断层双侧破裂模式出发,对该地震发震断层的动态破裂过程及近断层地表运动特征进行了仿真模拟和计算.研究区域为围绕发震断层200 km×140 km×40 km(深度)的长方形块体组成,模拟计算的空间分辨率和时间分辨率分别为200 m和0.012 s,形成的空间网格节点数为1051×701×201.在DELL小型上作站上,我们实现了对源程序的移植和并行计算.同时,通过引进计算机可视化技术,对模拟数据进行了3D/4D解释分析.另外,在对源程序修改过程中,实现了对京津唐地区三维地壳速度结构的嵌入,在一定程度上增强了对地震波传播以及地面运动模拟的真实性,并讨论了地震破裂的方向性对近断层地表运动的影响.最后根据初步研究结果结合京津唐地区活动断层构造特征,对唐山M_S7.8级主震后随之而来的1976滦县M_S7.1级余震及宁河M_S6.9级余震的动态触发机制提出了新的解释.由于受主震破裂方向性作用的影响,使得主震对后续两个较大余震产生的动态应力变化的峰值在断层的走滑方向上较大,为2～3 MPa,在逆冲方向上较小,为0.1～0.2 MPa.即唐山主震的发生使得其周边的应力场有一个瞬态的应力调整,唐山主震对后续余震的发生有促发作用.     

Simulation of Ground Motion from Strong Earthquakes of Kamchatka Region (1992–1993) at Rock and Soil Sites

To estimate the parameters of ground motion in future strong earthquakes, characteristics of radiation and propagation of seismic waves in the Kamchatka region were studied. Regional parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves were estimated by comparing simulations of earthquake records with data recorded by stations of the Kamchatka Strong Motion Network. Acceleration time histories of strong earthquakes (M _w = 6.8–7.5, depths 45–55 km) that occurred near the eastern coast of Kamchatka in 1992–1993 were simulated at rock and soil stations located at epicentral distances of 67–195 km. In these calculations, the source spectra and the estimates of frequency-dependent attenuation and geometrical spreading obtained earlier for Kamchatka were used. The local seismic-wave amplification was estimated based on shallow geophysical site investigations and deep crustal seismic explorations, and parameters defining the shapes of the waveforms, the duration, etc. were selected, showing the best-fit to the observations. The estimated parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves describe all the studied earthquakes well. Based on the waveforms of the acceleration time histories, models of slip distribution over the fault planes were constructed for the studied earthquakes. Station PET can be considered as a reference rock station having the minimum site effects. The intensity of ground motion at the other studied stations was higher than at PET due to the soil response or other effects, primarily topographic ones. At soil stations INS, AER, and DCH the parameters of soil profiles (homogeneous pyroclastic deposits) were estimated, and nonlinear models of their behavior in the strong motion were constructed. The obtained parameters of radiation and propagation of seismic waves and models of soil behavior can be used for forecasting ground motion in future strong earthquakes in Kamchatka.     

Earthquake soil‐structure interaction of nuclear power plants,differences in response to 3‐D, 3 × 1‐D,and 1‐D excitations

In soil‐structure interaction modeling of systems subjected to earthquake motions, it is classically assumed that the incoming wave field, produced by an earthquake, is unidimensional and vertically propagating. This work explores the validity of this assumption by performing earthquake soil‐structure interaction modeling, including explicit modeling of sources, seismic wave propagation, site, and structure. The domain reduction method is used to couple seismic (near‐field) simulations with local soil‐structure interaction response. The response of a generic nuclear power plant model computed using full earthquake soil‐structure interaction simulations is compared with the current state‐of‐the‐art method of deconvolving in depth the (simulated) free‐field motions, recorded at the site of interest, and assuming that the earthquake wave field is spatially unidimensional. Results show that the 1‐D wave‐field assumption does not hold in general. It is shown that the way in which full 3‐D analysis results differ from those which assume a 1‐D wave field is dependent on fault‐to‐site geometry and motion frequency content. It is argued that this is especially important for certain classes of soil‐structure systems of which nuclear power plants subjected to near‐field earthquakes are an example.     

近断层速度脉冲地震动的三维有限差分模拟

根据台湾西部地质地貌特征和1999年集集M_W7.6地震的研究成果,建立三维速度结构模型和震源模型,并采用三维有限差分法对双冬断层可能产生的近断层脉冲型地震动进行数值模拟。结果表明,方向性效应引起的双向速度脉冲集中在垂直于断层滑动分量的方向上,而滑冲效应引起的单向速度脉冲则集中在平行于断层滑动分量的方向上。受方向性效应和上盘效应的共同调制,近断层脉冲型地震动反映出不对称带状分布的特征,速度脉冲主要分布在距离断层面约10 km的范围内。凹凸体的特性影响着地震动的时空分布,由地震波场显示南投和台中处于强地震动危险区。近场脉冲型地震动的研究对分析速度脉冲形成机理以及地震危险性有一定的参考意义。     

Ground‐shaking mapping for a scenario earthquake considering effects of geological conditions: a case study for the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu,Japan earthquake

In order to examine the applicability of ground‐shaking mapping techniques to a near‐field earthquake, a peak ground velocity map of the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan earthquake computed from seismic zoning methods that consider the effects of geological conditions is compared with the actual observed intensity map. When computing the ground‐shaking map, the site amplification at each site is calculated in terms of the average shear‐wave velocity of the ground estimated from the corresponding geomorphological conditions. This map shows a relatively good agreement with the observed intensity map. However, the computations provide smaller values for certain disastrous areas of the earthquake, where the effects on ground motion of a deep, irregular underground structure have been reported. The effect of such structures on site response is examined implementing 2D FEM analyses, thereby being also incorporated into the method. Results considering the effect of the irregular underground structure show better agreement with the observed intensity map. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of peak ground velocity on deformation demands for SDOF systems

The effect of peak ground velocity (PGV) on single‐degree‐of‐freedom (SDOF) deformation demands and for certain ground‐motion features is described by using a total of 60 soil site records with source‐to‐site distances less than 23 km and moment magnitudes between 5.5 and 7.6. The observations based on these records indicate that PGV correlates well with the earthquake magnitude and provides useful information about the ground‐motion frequency content and strong‐motion duration that can play a role on the seismic demand of structures. The statistical results computed from non‐linear response history analyses of different hysteretic models highlight that PGV correlates better with the deformation demands with respect to other ground motion intensity measures. The choice of PGV as ground motion intensity decreases the dispersion due to record‐to‐record variability of SDOF deformation demands, particularly in the short period range. The central tendencies of deformation demands are sensitive to PGV and they may vary considerably as a function of the hysteretic model and structural period. The results provided in this study suggest a consideration of PGV as a stable candidate for ground motion intensity measure in simplified seismic assessment methods that are used to estimate structural performance for earthquake hazard analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating economic losses of midrise reinforced concrete shear wall buildings in sedimentary basins by combining empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations

Studies of recorded ground motions and simulations have shown that deep sedimentary basins can greatly increase the intensity of earthquake ground motions within a period range of approximately 1–4 s, but the economic impacts of basin effects are uncertain. This paper estimates key economic indicators of seismic performance, expressed in terms of earthquake‐induced repair costs, using empirical and simulated seismic hazard characterizations that account for the effects of basins. The methodology used is general, but the estimates are made for a series of eight‐ to 24‐story residential reinforced concrete shear wall archetype buildings in Seattle, WA, whose design neglects basin effects. All buildings are designed to comply with code‐minimum requirements (i.e., reference archetypes), as well as a series of design enhancements, which include (a) increasing design forces, (b) decreasing drift limits, and (c) a combination of these strategies. As an additional reference point, a performance‐based design is also assessed. The performance of the archetype buildings is evaluated for the seismic hazard level in Seattle according to the 2018 National Seismic Hazard Model (2018 NSHM), which explicitly considers basin effects. Inclusion of basin effects results in an average threefold increase in annualized losses for all archetypes. Incorporating physics‐based ground motion simulations to represent the large‐magnitude Cascadia subduction interface earthquake contribution to the hazard results in a further increase of 22% relative to the 2018 NSHM. The most effective of the design strategies considered combines a 25% increase in strength with a reduction in drift limits to 1.5%.     

A critical examination of seismic response uncertainty analysis in earthquake engineering

The last decade of performance‐based earthquake engineering (PBEE) research has seen a rapidly increasing emphasis placed on the explicit quantification of uncertainties. This paper examines uncertainty consideration in input ground‐motion and numerical seismic response analyses as part of PBEE, with particular attention given to the physical consistency and completeness of uncertainty consideration. It is argued that the use of the commonly adopted incremental dynamic analysis leads to a biased representation of the seismic intensity and that when considering the number of ground motions to be used in seismic response analyses, attention should be given to both reducing parameter estimation uncertainty and also limiting ground‐motion selection bias. Research into uncertainties in system‐specific numerical seismic response analysis models to date has been largely restricted to the consideration of ‘low‐level’ constitutive model parameter uncertainties. However, ‘high‐level’ constitutive model and model methodology uncertainties are likely significant and therefore represent a key research area in the coming years. It is also argued that the common omission of high‐level seismic response analysis modelling uncertainties leads to a fallacy that ground‐motion uncertainty is more significant than numerical modelling uncertainty. The author's opinion of the role of uncertainty analysis in PBEE is also presented. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region’s peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M _S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.     

Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area

Vrancea major intermediate-depth earthquakes produced extreme damage in Bucharest city, located at about 165 km epicenter distance. Our purpose is to investigate the influence of local geological conditions upon the seismic motion in Bucharest in case of large (M>7) Vrancea earthquakes. Two input data sets are used: (a) geological, geotechnical and geophysical information, including in situ measurements, and (b) acceleration recordings of Vrancea earthquakes. Local response evaluation based on first dataset is confirmed by the spectral analysis of the earthquake records. Two main features are outlined: non-stationarity of ground motion dynamic amplification from one event to other and inadequacy of limiting the investigation depth to uppermost 30 m to evaluate ground dynamic characteristics. Consequently (1) we cannot extrapolate the ground motion response determined for moderate and small earthquakes to anticipate the effects of the large Vrancea shocks and (2) the local response is controlled by the entire package of Quaternary deposits which are significantly deeper than 30 m depth beneath Bucharest Area.     

Topographic site effects of Xishan Park ridge in Zigong city,Sichuan considering epicentral distance

Ground motion amplification induced by topography plays a vital role in engineering seismology. A topographic array of 8 accelerographs has been operating along the ridge in Xishan Park since 2007. The topographic site effects in Zigong city are studied based on the strong motion data of 2008 M_s 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake (the epicentral distance?=?225 km) and 2019 M_s 5.2 Zizhong earthquake (the epicentral distance?=?29 km). We compare the peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the two earthquakes and find that the PGA of Station 7#, which locates on a relatively steep slope, is amplified by 4.41 times comparing with the reference station in Zizhong earthquake, while this value is only 1.62 in Wenchuan earthquake. Fourier amplitude spectrum shows that the high frequency content of Zizhong earthquake is more abundant because of its smaller epicentral distance. By using the standard spectral ratio (SSR) method, we conclude that the amplification occurs because high-frequency ground motion is likely to resonate at small-scale features. Finally, the 3D numerical simulations are used to verify these conclusions. Our work indicates that more sophisticated numerical models need to be established for more accurate topographic site effects quantification. In addition, the influence of nearby topographic features should be considered when selecting reference stations.

     

Information theory measures for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations

This short communication introduces a quantitative approach for the engineering validation of ground‐motion simulations based on information theory concepts and statistical hypothesis testing. Specifically, we use the Kullback‐Leibler divergence to measure the similarity of the probability distributions of recorded and simulated ground‐motion intensity measures (IMs). We demonstrate the application of the proposed validation approach to ground‐motion simulations computed by using a variety of methods, including Graves and Pitarka hybrid broadband, the deterministic composite source model, and a stochastic white noise finite‐fault model. Ground‐motion IMs, acting as proxies for the (nonlinear) seismic response of more complex engineered systems, are considered herein to validate the considered ground‐motion simulation methods. The list of considered IMs includes both spectral‐shape and duration‐related proxies, shown to be the optimal IMs in several probabilistic seismic demand models of different structural types, within the framework of performance‐based earthquake engineering. The proposed validation exercise (1) can highlight the similarities and differences between simulated and recorded ground motions for a given simulation method and/or (2) allow the ranking of the performance of alternative simulation methods. The similarities between records and simulations should provide confidence in using the simulation method for engineering applications, while the discrepancies should help in improving the tested method for the generation of synthetic records.