Mapping the stray domestic cat (Felis catus) population in New Zealand: Species distribution modelling with a climate change scenario and implications for protected areas

Species distribution models of stray cats were developed using two types of occurrence data: (i) a combined dataset of stray cats and cat colonies in Auckland and projected to the wider New Zealand area; and (ii) population density as an analogue for country-wide stray cat occurrence. These occurrence data, together with sets of environmental variables were used as input to the Maxent modelling tool to produce maps of suitability for the species. Environmental variables used in the models consist of current bioclimatic conditions, and a future climate scenario (RCP8.5 for year 2070 CCSM model). Commonly occurring bias in the modelling process due to latitude, the area for selecting background points in model evaluation, inherent spatial autocorrelation of occurrence points, and correlated bioclimatic variables were explicitly addressed. Results show that the North Island consistently provide more suitable areas for stray cats with increased suitability in a high emission climate change condition. Key protected areas at risk from the increased suitability to stray cats are also presented.     

Characterizing the potential distribution of the invasive Asian longhorned beetle (Anoplophora glabripennis) in Worcester County,Massachusetts

The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB) (Anoplophora glabripennis) is an invasive insect pest that has established populations in Worcester County, Massachusetts as of 2008. ALB predominantly targets red maple (Acer rubrum), sugar maple (Acer saccharum), which are prominent in New England hardwood forests, and Norway maple (Acer platanoides), which was planted in built environments as street trees in response to severe weather and invasive insect and pathogen disturbances. Mahalanobis Typicality models related presence locations of ALB presence-only locations in Worcester County towns from 2008 to 2012 to biotic, abiotic, and anthropogenic variables to predict the potential distribution of ALB and to determine locations most characteristic of infestation. k-fold cross-validation and a continuous Boyce Index were employed to validate model performance and to identify threshold values at which continuous models of typicality could be reclassified into categorical maps. Distance-to-roads (r² = 0.19) and probability of maple presence (r² = 0.13) were the most important predictor variables in the ALB model. Locations that were most consistently susceptible to ALB infestation had significant high maple presence (p < 0.001) and significant low distance-to-roads (p < 0.001) compared to the whole study area, suggesting that ALB in Worcester County, MA, prefers maple-dominant edge habitats at the current stage of invasion. The localized ALB potential distribution model was consistently accurate (Boyce Continuous Index = 0.84) despite the lack of absence locations and incomplete knowledge of ALB niche breadth in both native and invaded ranges. The results from this study could be used as a baseline for effective adaptive management policies that could help prioritize the need for early detection/eradication measures and address the potential ecological and social ramifications of the current ALB outbreak in Worcester County. It is hoped that the model employed could be further tested for future outbreaks as they are discovered in the USA.     

GIS Investigation of the relationship of sex and season on the population distribution of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in Charleston,South Carolina

ABSTRACT

The Charleston Estuarine System Stock (CESS) of common bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) has been the focus of population monitoring for the past 20 years. Photo-id studies have determined abundance and survival estimates for this population, which exhibits high site fidelity in this area. However, fine-scale distribution, utilization patterns, and the driving forces behind these patterns are lacking. Using historical photo-id data and a novel application of geographic information system (GIS) analysis, the present study identified core use areas within Charleston Harbor, as well as patterns specific to sexes and seasons. Photo-id data of 319 dolphins sighted 11 times or more during 2004–2009 were analyzed. Heat maps were developed to examine spatial distributions using kernel density estimates (KDE) and were compared between sexes and seasons. Multiple high-density core use areas were identified for this population, with the most noteworthy near the mouth of the harbor toward the Atlantic Ocean. Fine-scale distribution varied across sexes, as well as seasons. Some areas were identified as more specifically inhabited by one sex, while other areas overlapped between sexes. Females were more tightly concentrated within their distribution while males were more dispersed. Although population distribution varied across seasons, sex distributions remained.