Timescale-based flood typing to estimate temporal changes in flood frequencies

ABSTRACT

The flood peak is the dominating characteristic in nearly all flood-statistical analyses. Contrary to the general assumptions of design flood estimation, the peak is not closely related to other flood characteristics. Differentiation of floods into types provides a more realistic view. Often different parts of the probability distribution function of annual flood peaks are dominated by different flood types, which raises the question how shifts in flood regimes would modify the statistics of annual maxima. To answer this, a distinction into five flood types is proposed; then, temporal changes in flood-type frequencies are investigated. We show that the frequency of floods caused by heavy rain has increased significantly in recent years. A statistical model is developed that simulates peaks for each event type by type-specific peak–volume relationships. In a simulation study, we show how changes in frequency of flood event type lead to changes in the quantiles of annual maximum series.     

Hydrologic and water isotope characterization of a regulated Canadian Shield river basin

Stable water isotope surveys have increasingly been integrated into river basins studies, but fewer have used them to evaluate impact of hydropower regulation. This study applies hydrologic and water isotope survey approaches to a Canadian Shield river basin with both regulated and natural flows. Historical streamflow records were used to evaluate the influence of three hydroelectric reservoirs and unregulated portions of the basin on downstream flows and changes in water level management implemented after an extreme flood year (1979). In 2013, water isotope surveys of surface and source waters (e.g., rainfall, groundwater, snowmelt) were conducted to examine spatial and temporal variation in contributions to river flow. Seasonal changes in relative groundwater contribution were assessed using a water‐isotope mass balance approach. Within the basin, two regulated reservoirs exhibited inverted hydrographs with augmented winter flows, whereas a third exhibited a hydrograph dominated by spring snowmelt. In 2013, spatial variation in rain‐on‐snow and air temperatures resulted in a critical lag in snowmelt initiation in the southern and northern portions of the basin resulting in a dispersed, double peak spring hydrograph, contrasting with 1979 when a combination of rain‐on‐snow and coincident snowmelt led to the highest flood on record. Although eastern basin reservoirs become seasonally enriched in δ¹⁸O and δ²H values, unregulated western basin flows remain less variable due to groundwater driven baseflow with increasing influence downstream. Combined analysis of historical streamflow (e.g., flood of 1979, drought of 2010) and the 2013 water isotope surveys illustrate extreme meteorological conditions that current management activities are unable to prevent. In this study, the influence of evaporative fractionation on large surface water reservoirs provides important evidence of streamflow partitioning, illustrating the value of stable water isotope tracers for study of larger catchments.     

Influence of changes in river system structure on hydrological processes in Taihu Basin,China

ABSTRACT

With the rapid economic development and urbanization in Taihu Basin (eastern China), the river system has decayed and the connectivity of rivers and lakes has weakened, resulting in frequent floods. The impact of changes in river system structure on hydrological processes in the plain river network area was analysed against a background of urbanization. An indicator system was built to describe the quantitative, morphological and spatial structure of the river system. Analysis of the change in annual average and extreme water levels revealed the influencing mechanism of the changes in river system structure on the hydrological processes. The results indicate a decreasing tendency in the density of the river system in the study area, with a reduction in water surface ratio by about 20% in the past 50 years. Since the 1960s, the maximum and annual average water levels have increased. The degree of change in the mean monthly, annual lowest and annual highest water levels was great, with that in the non-flood season being higher than in the flood season. The decrease in the number of rivers directly reduced the storage and adjustable capacity of the basin.     

Rainfall–runoff,flood inundation and sensitivity analysis of the 2014 Pakistan flood in the Jhelum and Chenab river basin

ABSTRACT

The major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow.     

Effects of land use on water chemistry in a river draining karst terrain,southwest China

Abstract

The effects of land use on river water chemistry in a typical karst watershed (Wujiang River) of southwest China have been evaluated. Dissolved major ions and Sr isotopic compositions were determined in 11 independent sub-watersheds of the Wujiang River to investigate the spatio-temporal variations in river water chemistry and their relationship to land use. The results show significant spatial variability in pH, major ions, total dissolved solids (TDS), and Sr isotopic compositions throughout the basin. Correlation analysis indicates that nitrogen content is significantly related to forest coverage. Nitrogen and potassium generally have higher values in the rainy season, and the percentage of agricultural land controlled NO₃^- levels, which originate from anthropogenic sources. Forest cover, which varies between 35% and 71%, has no statistically significant impact on river solute concentrations, but the TDS flux is low in sub-watersheds with greater forest cover. Geological sources have a significant influence on pH and Sr isotopic compositions in river water throughout the basin.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Han, G., Li, F., and Tan, Q., 2014. Effects of land use on water chemistry in a river draining karst terrain, southwest China. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (5), 1063–1073.     

A simulation study to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test to detect abrupt changes in mean

Abstract

The Pettitt test is a non-parametric test that has been used in a number of hydroclimatological studies to detect abrupt changes in the mean of the distribution of the variable of interest. This test is based on the Mann-Whitney two-sample test (rank-based test), and allows the detection of a single shift at an unknown point in time. This test is often used to detect shifts in extremes because of the lack of distributional assumptions. However, the downside of not specifying a distribution is that the Pettitt test may be inefficient in detecting breaks when dealing with extremes. Here we adopt a Monte Carlo approach to examine the sensitivity of the Pettitt test in detecting shifts in the mean under different conditions (location of the break within the series, magnitude of the shift, record length, level of variability in the data, extreme vs non-extreme records, and pre-assigned significance level). These simulation results show that the sensitivity of this test in detecting abrupt changes increases with the increase in the magnitude of the shift and record length. The number of detections is higher when the time series represents the central part of the distribution (e.g. changes in the time series of medians), while the skill decreases as we move toward either low or high extremes (e.g. changes in the time series of maxima). Furthermore, the number of detections decreases as the variability in the data increases. Finally, abrupt changes are more easily detected when they occur toward the center of the time series.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis Associate editor K. Hamed     

A distribution-free ordinal classification of floods based on moments

ABSTRACT

Classification of floods is often based on return periods of their peaks estimated from probability distributions and hence depends on assumptions. The choice of an appropriate distribution function and parameter estimation are often connected with high uncertainties. In addition, limited length of data series and the stochastic characteristic of the occurrence of extreme events add further uncertainty. Here, a distribution-free classification approach is proposed based on statistical moments. By using robust estimators the sampling effects are reduced and time series of different lengths can be analysed together. With a developed optimization procedure, locally and regionally consistent flood categories can be defined. In application, it is shown that the resulting flood categories can be used to assess the spatial extent of extreme floods and their coincidences. Moreover, groups of gauges, where simultaneous events belong to the same classes, are indicators for homogeneous groups of gauges in regionalization.     

Modelling the effect of time‐dependent river dune evolution on bed roughness and stage

This paper presents an approach to incorporate time‐dependent dune evolution in the determination of bed roughness coefficients applied in hydraulic models. Dune roughness is calculated by using the process‐based dune evolution model of Paarlberg et al. ( 2009 ) and the empirical dune roughness predictor of Van Rijn ( 1984 ). The approach is illustrated by applying it to a river of simple geometry in the 1‐D hydraulic model SOBEK for two different flood wave shapes. Calculated dune heights clearly show a dependency on rate of change in discharge with time: dunes grow to larger heights for a flood wave with a smaller rate of change. Bed roughness coefficients computed using the new approach can be up to 10% higher than roughness coefficients based on calibration, with the largest differences at low flows. As a result of this larger bed roughness, computed water depths can be up to 15% larger at low flow. The new approach helps to reduce uncertainties in bed roughness coefficients of flow models, especially for river systems with strong variations in discharge with time. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interannual variation of suspended sediment load and sediment yield in an alpine catchment

Abstract

The results are described of 16 years operation of a measuring station for the automatic recording of water discharge, bed load and suspended sediment transport in the Rio Cordon catchment, a small alpine basin (5 km²) located in northeastern Italy. Hillslope erosion processes were investigated by surveying individual sediment sources repeatedly. Annual and seasonal variations of suspended sediment load during the period 1986–2001 are analysed along with their contribution to the total sediment yield. The results show that suspended load accounted for 76% of total load and that most of the suspended sediment transport occurred during two flood events: an extreme summer flash flood in September 1994 (27% of the 16-years total suspended load) and a snowmelt-induced event in May 2001 accompanied by a mud flow which fed the stream with sediments. The role of active sediment source areas is discussed in relation to the changes in flood peak—suspended load trends which became apparent after both the 1994 and the 2001 events.     

How to improve attribution of changes in drought and flood impacts

ABSTRACT

For the development of sustainable, efficient risk management strategies for the hydrological extremes of droughts and floods, it is essential to understand the temporal changes of impacts, and their respective causes and interactions. In particular, little is known about changes in vulnerability and their influence on drought and flood impacts. We present a fictitious dialogue between two experts, one in droughts and the other in floods, showing that the main obstacles to scientific advancement in this area are both a lack of data and a lack of commonly accepted approaches. The drought and flood experts “discuss” available data and methods and we suggest a complementary approach. This approach consists of collecting a large number of single or multiple paired-event case studies from catchments around the world, undertaking detailed analyses of changes in impacts and drivers, and carrying out a comparative analysis. The advantages of this approach are that it allows detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the paired-event analyses, and reveals general, transferable conclusions based on the comparative analysis of various case studies. Additionally, it is quite flexible in terms of data and can accommodate differences between floods and droughts.     

Modelling long-term water yield effects of forest management in a Norway spruce forest

Abstract

Intensive forest management is one of the main land cover changes over the last century in Central Europe, resulting in forest monoculture. It has been proposed that these monoculture stands impact hydrological processes, water yield, water quality and ecosystem services. At the Lysina Critical Zone Observatory, a forest catchment in the western Czech Republic, a distributed physics-based hydrologic model, Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model (PIHM), was used to simulate long-term hydrological change under different forest management practices, and to evaluate the comparative scenarios of the hydrological consequences of changing land cover. Stand-age-adjusted LAI (leaf area index) curves were generated from an empirical relationship to represent changes in seasonal tree growth. By consideration of age-adjusted LAI, the spatially-distributed model was able to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response from snowmelt, recharge, evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, soil moisture and streamflow, as well as spatial patterns of each state and flux. Simulation scenarios of forest management (historical management, unmanaged, clear cutting to cropland) were compared. One of the critical findings of the study indicates that selective (patch) forest cutting results in a modest increase in runoff (water yield) as compared to the simulated unmanaged (no cutting) scenario over a 29-year period at Lysina, suggesting the model is sensitive to selective cutting practices. A simulation scenario of cropland or complete forest cutting leads to extreme increases in annual water yield and peak flow. The model sensitivity to forest management practices examined here suggests the utility of models and scenario development to future management strategies for assessing sustainable water resources and ecosystem services.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis     

Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River,southern Québec,Canada

Abstract

In the current context of climatic variability, it is important to quantify the impact on the environment. This study deals with an analysis of climatic data and land-use changes in terms of the impacts on flood recurrence based on multisource data. The study area covers the mouth of the Saint-François River (southern Québec, Canada), where spring floods and ice jams are a recurring problem. The flood frequency analysis shows an increase in flooding over recent decades, attributable to an increase in winter temperatures that has the effect of causing ice jams earlier in the year. Regarding land-use changes, a small decrease in agricultural surface areas is observed, from 53% to 39%, along with increases in forest and urban surface areas from 27% to 38% (forest) and 3% to 5% (urban) between 1928 and 2005. In a context of continuing climate warming, more pronounced inter-annual variations are to be expected along with a higher incidence of flooding.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Ouellet, C., Saint-Laurent, D. and Normand, F., 2012. Flood events and flood risk assessment in relation to climate and land-use changes: Saint-François River, southern Québec, Canada. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (2), 313–325.     

Extreme hydrological events,palaeo-information and climate change

Abstract

Extreme flood events have been and continue to be one of the most important natural hazards responsible for deaths and economic losses. Extreme floods result in direct destructive effects during the time of the event, and they also may be followed by a related chain of indirect calamities such as famines and epidemics that produce additional damages and suffering. Extreme hydrological events that have occurred in the historical past may also occur in the future. Knowledge about magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of past extreme hydrological events in most regions are too short to adequately evaluate potential magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events. Stationary climate in which the mean and variance do not change over time is a basic underlying assumption of standard methodological procedures for estimating recurrence probabilities of extreme hydrological events. Palaeo-archives contained in river and lake sediments, fossil plant and animal matter, ice layers, and other natural archives show that the assumption of stationary climate is not valid when the time scale is extended beyond centuries and millennia. Records of past extreme floods that occurred long before the period of instrumentation can be reconstructed from the distribution of slackwater flood deposits or from derivation of water depths competent to transport the largest rocks found in flood deposited sediment. Palaeoflood records reconstructed from the Upper Mississippi and Lower Colorado River systems in the United States confirm nonstationary behaviour of the mean and variance in hydrological time series. These stratigraphic records have shown that even very modest climatic changes have resulted in very important changes in the magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme floods. A close relationship was found between the palaeo-flood record of extreme floods in the Upper Mississippi River system and a palaeo-record of stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon preserved in speleothem calcite from a local cave. The relationship suggests that isotopic records elsewhere might be calibrated to provide insight about how future potential climate changes might impact extreme flood magnitudes and recurrence frequencies there. Atmospheric global circulation models (GCMs) mainly simulate average climatic conditions and are presently inadequate sources of information about how future climate changes might be represented at the extreme event scale. Palaeo-flood archives, however, provide basic information about how magnitudes and recurrence frequencies of extreme hydrological events responded to past climate changes and they also provide a reference base against which GCM simulations can be calibrated regionally and be better interpreted to decipher hydrological information at the extreme event scale.     

Flood coincidence analysis of Poyang Lake and Yangtze River: risk and influencing factors

We build copula function-based joint distribution models for the annual maximum flood peaks of the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake, to analyze the coincidence probabilities, using scenarios that combine with the impoundment of three Gorges, define influencing indexes and relative contribution rates on flood coincidence at varying frequencies. The study shows the probabilities for coincidence of floods with 1000, 100, and 10-year return periods in both Yangtze main stem and Poyang Lake are respectively 0.02, 0.19 and 2.87%, with higher coincidence probabilities for shorter return periods; when 1000-year flood occurs in the Yangtze, the probabilities for Poyang Lake to encounter flood of the 1000, 100, or 10-year magnitude are higher than 16.08, 42.48 or 74.77% respectively; Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence is affected by operation of the hydraulic engineering. The lowering of flood peaks caused by the Three Gorges impoundment and regulation of the lake have respectively reduced the probabilities of Poyang–Yangtze flood coincidence by about 7.0 and 1.97%, with average relative contribution rates ? 33.82 and ? 17.1%; influenced by hydrological projects in Poyang basin, variations in Poyang’s inflow flood have displayed an average contribution rate of 20.4% for the negative effect on extreme (P < 5% or P > 90%) flood coincidence, while having a positive contribution rate of 38.2% on floods of other return periods. The results can help increase our understanding of flood coincidence, and support flood control efforts in Poyang Lake; its analytical approach may also be useful to other applications of copula functions.     

Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment

Abstract

A modelling experiment is used to examine different land-use scenarios ranging from extreme deforestation (31% forest cover) to pristine (95% forest cover) conditions and related Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes to assess whether a change in streamflow dynamics, discharge extremes and mean annual water balance of a 73.4-km² tropical headwater catchment in Costa Rica could be detected. A semi-distributed, conceptual rainfall–runoff model was adapted to conceptualize the empirically-based, dominant hydrological processes of the study area and was multi-criteria calibrated using different objective functions and empirical constraints on model simulations in a Monte Carlo framework to account for parameter uncertainty. The results suggest that land-use change had relatively little effect on the overall mean annual water yield (<3%). However, streamflow dynamics proved to be sensitive in terms of frequency, timing and magnitude of discharge extremes. For low flows and peak discharges of return periods greater than one year, land use had a minor influence on the runoff response. Below these thresholds (<1-year return period), forest cover potentially decreased runoff peaks and low flows by as much as 10%, and non-forest cover increased runoff peaks and low flows by up to 15%. The study demonstrated the potential for using hydrological modelling to help identify the impact of protection and reforestation efforts on ecosystem services.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Birkel, C., Soulsby, C., and Tetzlaff, D., 2012. Modelling the impacts of land-cover change on streamflow dynamics of a tropical rainforest headwater catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (8), 1543–1561.     

Proposing a trend-based time-varying approach to assess climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow

ABSTRACT

The conventional abrupt change-based assessments of climate- and human-induced impacts on streamflow require the existence of change point(s) and stationarity assumption. However, hydrological conditions may not change abruptly at a certain time, but rather evolve gradually over a period. We propose a trend-based time-varying approach that does not require these prerequisites to assess the climate- and human-induced impacts on hydrological conditions in the Pearl River Basin (PRB), China, which can be applied in other basins. The trend-based time-varying approach detects human activities exert a significant seasonal regulation on streamflow (i.e. 113% of the decreases in the wet season and 93% of the increases in the dry season) and 101% of the reductions in flood peaks in the East River Basin, the sub-basin with the highest ratio of total reservoir storage capacity to river discharge in the PRB. Climate change contributes to 77% of the increases in flood peaks in the West River Basin, a large sub-basin with lower flood control levels.     

Impact of antecedent conditions on simulations of a flood in a mountain headwater basin

A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km²). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Interactions between subgrid‐scale resolution,feature representation and grid‐scale resolution in flood inundation modelling

Numerical modelling of flood inundation over large and complex floodplains often requires mesh resolutions coarser than the structural features (e.g. buildings) that are known to influence the inundation process. Recent research has shown that this mismatch is not well represented by conventional roughness treatments, but that finer‐scale features can be represented through porosity‐based subgrid‐scale treatments. This paper develops this work by testing the interactions between feature representation, subgrid‐scale resolution and mesh resolution. It uses as the basis for this testing a 2D diffusion‐based flood inundation model which is applied to a 2004 flood event in a topologically complex upland floodplain in northern England. This study formulated simulations with different grid mesh resolution and subgrid mesh ratio. The sensitivity of the model to mesh resolution and roughness specification was investigated. Model validation and verification suggest that the subgrid treatment with higher subgrid mesh ratio can give much improved predictions of flood propagation, in particular, in terms of the predicted water depth. This study also highlighted the limitation of using at‐a‐point in time inundation extent for validation of flood models of this type. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.