Hydrological and hydrodynamic modeling for flood damage mitigation in Brahmani–Baitarani River Basin,India

Stream flow forecast and its inundation simulations prior to the event are an effective and non-structural method of flood damage mitigation. In this paper, a continuous simulation hydrological and hydrodynamic model was developed for stream flow forecast and for spatial inundation simulation in Brahmani–Baitarani river basin, India. The hydrologic modelling approach includes rainfall-run-off modelling, flow routing, calibration and validation of the model with the field discharge data. CARTOSAT Digital Elevation Model of 30 m resolution, land use/land cover derived from the Indian Remote Sensing Satellite (IRS-P6) AWiFS and soil textural data of the study area were used in the modelling to compute topographic and hydraulic parameters. The hydrological model was calibrated with the help of field observed discharge data of 2006 and 2009 and validated with the data of 2008 and 2011. From the results, it is found that computed discharges are very well matching well with the observed discharges. The developed model can provide the stream flow forecast with more than 30 h lead time. Possible flood inundations were simulated using hydrodynamic modelling approach. CARTO Digital Elevation Model of 10 m resolution, landuse and the computed flood hydrographs were used in inundation simulations.     

Sequence-based mapping approach to spatio-temporal snow patterns from MODIS time-series applied to Scotland

Snow cover and its monitoring are important because of the impact on important environmental variables, hydrological circulation and ecosystem services. For regional snow cover mapping and monitoring, the MODIS satellite sensors are particularly appealing. However cloud presence is an important limiting factor. This study addressed the problem of cloud cover for time-series in a boreal-Atlantic region where melting and re-covering of snow often do not follow the usual alpine-like patterns. A key requirement in this context was to apply improved methods to deal with the high cloud cover and the irregular spatio-temporal snow occurrence, through exploitation of space-time correlation of pixel values. The information contained in snow presence sequences was then used to derive summary indices to describe the time series patterns. Finally it was tested whether the derived indices can be considered an accurate summary of the snow presence data by establishing and evaluating their statistical relations with morphology and the landscape. The proposed cloud filling method had a good agreement (between 80 and 99%) with validation data even with a large number of pixels missing. The sequence analysis algorithm proposed takes into account the position of the states to fully consider the temporal dimension, i.e. the order in which a certain state appears in an image sequence compared to its neighbourhoods. The indices that were derived from the sequence of snow presence proved useful for describing the general spatio-temporal patterns of snow in Scotland as they were well related (more than 60% of explained deviance) with environmental information such as morphology supporting their use as a summary of snow patterns over time. The use of the derived indices is an advantage because of data reduction, easier interpretability and capture of sequence position-wise information (e.g. importance of short term fall/melt cycles). The derived seven clusters took into account the temporal patterns of the snow presence and they were well separated both spatially and according to the snow patterns and the environmental information. In conclusion, the use of sequences proved useful for analysing different spatio-temporal patterns of snow that could be related to other environmental information to characterize snow regimes regions in Scotland and to be integrated with ground measures for further hydrological and climatological analysis as baseline data for climate change models.     

Rainfall-runoff modelling by using SM2RAIN-derived and state-of-the-art satellite rainfall products over Italy

Satellite rainfall products (SRPs) are becoming more accurate with ever increasing spatial and temporal resolution. This evolution can be beneficial for hydrological applications, providing new sources of information and allowing to drive models in ungauged areas. Despite the large availability of rainfall satellite data, their use in rainfall-runoff modelling is still very scarce, most likely due to measurement issues (bias, accuracy) and the hydrological community acceptability of satellite products.In this study, the real-time version (3B42-RT) of Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis, TMPA, and a new SRP based on the application of SM2RAIN algorithm (Brocca et al., 2014) to the ASCAT (Advanced SCATterometer) soil moisture product, SM2R_ASC, are used to drive a lumped hydrologic model over four basins in Italy during the 4-year period 2010–2013.The need of the recalibration of model parameter values for each SRP is highlighted, being an important precondition for their suitable use in flood modelling. Results shows that SRPs provided, in most of the cases, performance scores only slightly lower than those obtained by using observed data with a reduction of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) less than 30% when using SM2R_ASC product while TMPA is characterized by a significant deterioration during the validation period 2012–2013. Moreover, the integration between observed and satellite rainfall data is investigated as well. Interestingly, the simple integration procedure here applied allows obtaining more accurate rainfall input datasets with respect to the use of ground observations only, for 3 out 4 basins. Indeed, discharge simulations improve when ground rainfall observations and SM2R_ASC product are integrated, with an increase of NS between 2 and 42% for the 3 basins in Central and Northern Italy. Overall, the study highlights the feasibility of using SRPs in hydrological applications over the Mediterranean region with benefits in discharge simulations also in well gauged areas.     

A comparative assessment of catchment runoff generation and forest productivity in a semi-arid environment

Understanding the dynamic interactions between forest ecosystems and water in the Mediterranean region is essential for increasing ecosystem services. Even if many studies were implemented to analyse the variations of water and net primary productivity (NPP) in the last decade, this is still an important research question especially for the Eastern Mediterranean, where the research attempts are limited. The main objective of this study was to carry out a comparative analysis of catchment runoff generation and forest NPP and to reveal their temporal dynamics at basin scale in a semi-arid Mediterranean environment. The methodology consisted three steps: (i) estimating catchment runoff generation by implementing process-based J2000 modelling suite, (ii) modelling NPP of the land cover/use types by adapting an ecosystem-process model (BIOME-Biogeochemical cycles) and (iii) assessing the spatio-temporal variability of NPP and runoff dynamics by incorporating the modelling results with multiple regression analysis. Model simulations showed that temperature highly contributed to NPP variations of needle-leaf forests and grasslands. The multiple regression analysis also indicated that runoff was influenced by elevation, precipitation and forest cover. This relationship showed that the inter-annual variability in forest NPP would relate to the variations in runoff distribution across a small Mediterranean subcatchment.     

全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究

科技部在\"十三五\"期间部署的国家重点研发计划\"全球变化及应对\"专项资助了\"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测\"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。     

Wavelet Modeling of Regional and Temporal Variations of the Earth’s Gravitational Potential Observed by GRACE

This work is dedicated to the wavelet modeling of regional and temporal variations of the Earth’s gravitational potential observed by the GRACE (gravity recovery and climate experiment) satellite mission. In the first part, all required mathematical tools and methods involving spherical wavelets are provided. Then, we apply our method to monthly GRACE gravity fields. A strong seasonal signal can be identified which is restricted to areas where large-scale redistributions of continental water mass are expected. This assumption is analyzed and verified by comparing the time-series of regionally obtained wavelet coefficients of the gravitational signal originating from hydrology models and the gravitational potential observed by GRACE. The results are in good agreement with previous studies and illustrate that wavelets are an appropriate tool to investigate regional effects in the Earth’s gravitational field. Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at     

Modelling the current and future spatial distribution of NPP in a Mediterranean watershed

The aim of this study is to use full spatial resolution Envisat MERIS data to drive an ecosystem productivity model for pine forests along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie, Ames, Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial biogeochemical model, designed to simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle using satellite sensor and meteorological data, was used to estimate annual regional fluxes in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). At its core this model is based on light-use efficiency, influenced by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. Present climate data was generated from 50 climate stations within the watershed using co-kriging. Regional scale pseudo-warming data for year 2070 were derived using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) these data were used to downscale the GCM General Circulation Model for the research area as part of an international research project called Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production Systems in Arid Areas (ICCAP). Outputs of climate data can be moderated using the four variables of percent tree cover, land cover, soil texture and NDVI. This study employed 47 MERIS images recorded between March 2003 and September 2005 to derive percent tree cover, land cover and NDVI. Envisat MERIS data hold great potential for estimating NPP with the CASA model because of the appropriateness of both its spatial and its spectral resolution.     

徐州贾汪矿塌陷积水区变化特征的研究

本文采用遥感(RS)获取信息和地理信息系统(GIS)建库分析相结合的方法,对徐州贾汪矿区1987-2007年煤炭开采过程中形成的塌陷积水区的数量变化、形态特征变化以及破碎度变化特征及其成因进行了研究,结果表明1987-2007年间,由于开采活动的不断进行,常年积水塌陷区的面积逐步增加;1987-1997年10年间,季节性塌陷积水区与常年塌陷积水区具有相似的变化特征;1997-2007年10年间,由于部分矿井停止开采及土地复垦的推行,季节性塌陷积水区的数量锐减,斑块形状变得规则且分布趋于分散。     

Lake variations in response to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 40 years

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in global climate and environmental change and holds the largest lake area in China, with a total surface area of 36,900 km². The expansion and shrinkage of these lakes are critical to the water cycle and ecological and environmental systems across the plateau. In this paper, surface areas of major lakes within the plateau were extracted based on a topographic map from 1970, and Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ satellite images from the 1970s to 2008. Then, a multivariate correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in lake surface areas and the changes in climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration. Initial results suggest that the variations in lake surface areas within the plateau are closely related to the warming, humidified climate transition in recent years such as the rise of air temperature and the increase in precipitation. In particular, the rising temperature accelerates melting of glaciers and perennial snow cover and triggers permafrost degradation, and leads to the expansion of most lakes across the plateau. In addition, different distributions and types of permafrost may cause different lake variations in the southern Tibetan Plateau.     

Glacier changes using satellite data and effect of climate in Tirungkhad basin located in western Himalaya

Glaciers are widely recognized as key indicators of climate change, and melt water obtained from them is an important source of fresh water and for hydropower generation. Regular monitoring of a large number of Himalayan glaciers is important for improving our knowledge of glacier response to climate change. In the present study, Survey of India topographical maps (1966) and Landsat datasets as ETM+ (2000, 2006) and TM (2011) have been used to study glacier fluctuations in Tirungkhad basin. A deglaciation of 26.1% (29.1?km²) in terms of area from 1966 to 2011 was observed. Lower altitude small glaciers (area?<?1?km²) lost more ice (34%), while glaciers with an area <10?km² lost less (20%). The percentage of change in glacier length was 26% (31.9?km) from 1966 to 2011. The south-facing glaciers showed high percentages of loss. From 2000 to 2011, debris cover has increased by 1.34%. The analysis of the trend in meteorological data collected from Kalpa and Purbani stations was carried out by Mann Kendall non-parametric method. During the last two decades, the mean annual temperature (T_max and T_min) has increased significantly, accompanied with a fall in snow water equivalent (SWE) and rainfall. The increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trend in SWE were significant at 95% confidence level. This observation shows that the warming of the climate is probably one of the major reasons for the glacier change in the basin.     

利用二型模糊聚类进行全球海表温度数据挖掘

基于二型模糊集的C均值聚类方法对全球时序海表温度数据进行了聚类分析,得到全球海表温度异常的典型聚类模式,并从聚类中心挖掘出潜在的海洋气候指数。     

辽宁省气候变化与厄尔尼诺相关性分析

为了探讨近50年来辽宁省气候变化特征及其与厄尔尼诺的关系,文章根据1965—2013年辽宁省23个气象站点的降水、年均气温数据与表征厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)事件的热带太平洋海表温度距平和南方涛动指数资料,利用气候倾向率、M-K突变检验以及反距离权重插值等方法进行分析研究,结果表明:1965—2013年辽宁省降水量由东南向西北逐渐减少,在多个时间段内发生突变现象;气温有显著的上升趋势,并在空间上呈现由东北向西南逐渐增加的趋势;降水变化与ENSO事件强度存在着一定的负相关性,而气温变化与ENSO事件强度没有显著的相关性。     

Communicating climate change: spatial analog versus color-banded isoline maps with and without accompanying text

People discount projected impacts of climate change that they see as spatially or temporally remote. To overcome this, climate change outreach must communicate impacts as local, concrete, immediate, and situated in a well-understood frame of reference. Spatial-analog mapping may meet this challenge: by drawing on people’s experience of existing climates, this technique matches a locality’s projected climates with present-day climates of other localities. However, analog maps’ effect on climate impact perceptions has not been compared with the effect on climate impact perceptions elicited by standard climate change mapping techniques. Accordingly, this study considers whether residents of Centre Region, Pennsylvania, who are shown spatial-analog maps for future Centre Region temperatures, perceive impacts as more salient than do residents shown the same temperature-change information directly using color-banded isallotherm maps. It also considers how responses differ when this information is presented using only text, only maps, or both maps and text. An online survey of 3094 members of 11 Centre Region organizations presents the maps and/or text and then assesses respondents’ impact perceptions. Based on 444 valid responses, the study finds that respondents, using spatial-analog survey forms, generally expect impacts to be less severe and disruptive than respondents using temperature-change forms. It also finds that respondents using survey forms with maps generally expect impacts to be more severe and disruptive than respondents using text-only forms. Climate change communicators who wish to improve understanding and engagement should therefore strongly consider using maps where possible, but should exercise caution before using spatial-analog approaches.     

后疫情时代全球气候变化的应对与抉择

后疫情时代,全球气候变化影响和应对呈现新趋势,突发性、全球性和关联性成为鲜明的特征.当前,要着力解决应对气候变化的重大科学问题,就必须继续务实加强基础研究,妥善处理应对全球变化的挑战和可持续发展之间的关系;根据中国国情选择自己的气候变化应对之路;进一步处理好减排与增汇、减缓与适应的关系;设立国家碳中和重大专项;制定和实...     

Full polarimetric PALSAR-based land cover monitoring in Cambodia for implementation of REDD policies

Abstract

Forest cover monitoring plays an important role in the implementation of climate change mitigation policies such as Kyoto protocol and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD). In this study, we have monitored land cover using the PALSAR (Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar) full polarimetric data based on incoherent target decomposition. Supervised classification technique has been applied on Cloude–Pottier decomposition, Freeman–Durden three component, and Yamaguchi four component decomposition for accurate mapping of different types of land cover classes. Based on confusion matrix derived from the predicted and defined pixels, the evergreen and sparsely deciduous forests have shown high producer's accuracy by Freeman–Durden three component and Yamaguchi four component classifications. The overall accuracy of Maximum Likelihood Classification by Yamaguchi four component is 94.1% with 0.93 kappa coefficient as compared to the 90.3% with 0.88 kappa coefficient by Freeman–Durden three component and 89.7% with 0.88 kappa coefficient by Cloude–Pottier decomposition. High accuracy of classification in a forested area using full polarimetric PALSAR data may have been because of high penetration of L-band SAR. The content of this study could be useful for the forest cover mapping during cloudy days needed for proper implementation of REDD policies in Cambodia.     

GIS支持的全球气候变化对中国Holdridge生命地带的可能影响研究

该文以地理信息系统为支持手段 ,根据Holdridge气候—植被生命地带的分类体系 ,首先研究了在目前气候条件下中国Holdridge生命地带空间分布的基本格局 ;然后采用GFDL、GISS、OSU3个GCMs模拟的 2×CO2 情景下的气温和降水作为未来气候条件 ,揭示了 2×CO2 情景下中国Holdridge生命地带在空间分、面积以及海拔高度等方面的变化     

结合高分遥感和多源数据的高原湖泊流域土地利用分析

高分一号卫星是为提升我国高分辨率数据自给率自主发射的卫星,在土地利用监测方面具有重要的应用价值。将GF-1卫星影像与多源数据影像进行对比能够挖掘各数据源在土地利用动态监测方面的差异性。本文以云南省杞麓湖流域为研究区,选取最新的Sentinel-2、GF-1和Landsat 8卫星遥感影像进行土地利用分类,以第二次全国土地利用调查数据为基期数据,结合野外实地调研和土地利用转移矩阵开展土地利用现状和演变分析,得出以下结论：①杞麓湖流域的水域、建设用地、耕地和林地自中心向外呈现出圈层分布的特征,与第二次全国土地调查结果相比,水域、耕地、林地3种类型的自然景观面积减少,而建设用地和其他用地受人类活动的影响,面积大幅增加,变化主要集中在杞麓湖周边的纳古镇和河西镇。②Sentinel-2卫星影像与GF-1卫星影像均具有较高的空间分辨率,二者对土地利用变化评估的结果相近,均优于Landsat 8卫星影像,其中GF-1卫星影像具有较高的应用价值。     

基于REMA数据的东南极达尔克冰川表面塌陷研究

全球气候变暖严重影响冰川的稳定性,南极多条冰川表面发生塌陷。由于缺少高空间和高时间分辨率的南极地表高程模型DEM（DigitalElevationModel）,目前单支冰川表面时空变化的研究不充分。利用2011年—2016年11期南极参考高程模型REMA（TheReferenceElevationModelofAntarctica）数据,开展东南极达尔克冰川表面塌陷区域的高程变化监测,并利用Landsat7/8和Worldview-2光学影像等数据分析塌陷过程和原因。结果表明,达尔克冰川在2013年发生了一起严重的塌陷事件,塌陷深度最大约45.29m,造成了约26.29×10⁶m³的水体损失;塌陷发生后,该区表面高程不断增加,于2016年恢复至塌陷前的高程。塌陷区具有明显的整体性沉降特征,并存在融水聚集,推测塌陷和达尔克冰川冰下湖的排水过程存在密切的联系。本研究证明达尔克冰川存在较大的不稳定性,同时验证了REMA数据监测冰川表面塌陷的可行性,为未来精细化监测南极冰盖/冰架响应气候变化提供技术参考。     

Analysis of snow cover and climatic variability in Bhaga basin located in western Himalaya

Bhaga Basin has complex mountainous terrain; little study has been done on the spatial and temporal characteristics of snow cover in the region. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 8-day snow cover products between 2001 and 2012 for winter period (November–April) have been used to study the variation in snow cover area (SCA). The statistical analysis based on non-parametric Mann Kendall and Sen’s slope methods have been used for detecting and estimating trends for climatic variables (temperature and snowfall) and SCA for winter period. Results of statistical analysis indicate rise in minimum temperature (0.02 °C year^?1) and fall in maximum temperature (0.17 °C year^?1). It also shows decrease in mean seasonal snowfall (0.07 cm year^?1). The seasonal SCA was found to decrease at the rate of 0.002% year^?1. This study indicates that the climate change is probably one of the major causes for depleting SCA.