Consequences of dike breaches and dike overflow in a bifurcating river system

Currently, the effect of dike breaches on downstream discharge partitioning and flood risk is not addressed in flood safety assessments. In a bifurcating river system, a dike breach may cause overland flows which can change downstream flood risk and discharge partitioning. This study examines how dike breaches and overflow affect overland flow patterns and discharges of the rivers of the Rhine delta. For extreme discharges, an increase in flood risk along the river branch with the smallest discharge capacity was found, while flood risk along the other river branches was reduced. Therefore, dike breaches and resulting overland flow patterns must be included in flood safety assessments.

     

Large-scale assessment of flood risk and the effects of mitigation measures along the Elbe River

The downstream effects of flood risk mitigation measures and the necessity to develop flood risk management strategies that are effective on a basin scale call for a flood risk assessment methodology that can be applied at the scale of a large river. We present an example of a rapid flood risk assessment methodology for the Elbe River. A 1D hydraulic routing model is extended by including the effect of planned (regulated and unregulated) and unintended retention (dike breaches) on the peak water levels. We further add an inundation model for dike breaches due to dike overtopping and a macroscale economic approach to assess the flood damage. The flexible approach to model the effects of measures by means of volume storage functions allows for rapid assessment of combinations of retention measures of various proposed dimensions and at multiple locations. The method allows for the comparison of the flood risk at the scale of the main river trajectory, which has not been possible for the Elbe River to date. The model is applied to a series of exemplary flood risk mitigation measures to show the downstream effects and the additive effects of combinations of measures on the flood risk along the river. We further demonstrate the increase in the downstream flood risk resulting from unilateral decisions to increase the dike height at upstream locations. As expected, the results underline the potential effectiveness of increased retention along the river. The effects of controlled retention at the most upstream possible location and largest possible extent generate the most pronounced reduction of average annual damage. As expected, the effect of uncontrolled retention with dike relocations is significantly lower.     

含盐风暴潮溃堤洪水数值模拟及风险分析

为了研究三角洲河口风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动规律,建立一、二维耦合的盐度数学模型对风暴潮溃堤时的盐水运动进行模拟。模型考虑洪泛区建筑物对盐水运动的影响以及溃口的渐变发展过程。用2008年多个测站的实测数据对河网模型的潮位和盐度计算结果进行了验证。将模型应用于珠江三角洲河网某近海溃口风暴潮溃堤的盐水运动模拟,并绘制了最大盐度等值面图。计算结果表明,该溃口大部分区域的溃堤积水盐度超过了4psu,因此,溃堤洪水的高盐度积水影响不容忽视。通过比较“溃堤”和“不溃堤”两种情况下的河网盐度计算结果,发现上游河道的溃堤分流增大了河道的纳潮量,促使涨潮量增大,增大了下游河网的咸潮上溯风险,减弱了上游来流对咸潮的压制效果。     

动态实时洪水风险分析及管理系统

当前洪水风险分析按照典型设计标准洪水进行计算的模式难以满足实际防洪管理需要,为了提高洪水风险分析的实时性以及适应洪水演进的动态性,设计了动态实时洪水风险分析框架。在本框架中,先采用一维和二维动态耦合水动力学数值方法耦合溃堤模型,然后在樵桑联围防洪保护区建立洪水演进模拟模型,通过灵活处理模型计算边界条件以及动态设置溃堤功能,计算不同设计标准洪水发生时,堤防出现单一溃口或者组合溃口后保护区内洪水演进过程。按照上述框架开发了樵桑联围动态实时洪水风险图编制与管理应用系统,并利用历史洪水资料开展模型验证,验证结果表明,2008-06洪水马口站、三水站、大熬站、甘竹（一）站的实测最高水位和模型计算最高水位的绝对误差分别为-0.10、0.10、0.09、0.04 m,均满足洪水模拟精度要求。利用模型计算了西江发生200年一遇的洪水情况下,江根堤防出现溃口后的洪水流量及溃口内外洪水水位变化过程,模拟溃口宽度168 m,最大溃口洪水流量达到5 190 m³,分析了堤防溃决后3、6和24 h洪水漫延导致村落淹没情况,结果表明其满足合理性分析。     

Model for prediction of sea dike breaching initiated by breaking wave impact

A computational model system is proposed for the prediction of sea dike breaching initiated from the seaward side by breaking wave impact with the focus on the application of the model system for the estimation failure probability of the defence structure. The described model system is built using a number of existing models for the calculation of grass, clay, and sand erosion. The parameters identified as those having the most significant influence on the estimation of the failure have been described stochastically. Monte Carlo simulations to account for uncertainties of the relevant input parameters and the model itself have been performed and the probabilities of the breach initiation and of the full dike breaching have been calculated. This will form the basis to assess the coastal flood risk due to dike breaching.     

Probabilistic flood risk analysis considering morphological dynamics and dike failure

A comprehensive flood risk assessment should aim not only at quantifying uncertainties but also the variability of risk over time. In this study, an efficient modelling framework was proposed to perform probabilistic hazard and risk analysis in dike-protected river systems accounting for morphological variability and uncertainty. The modelling framework combined the use of: (1) continuous synthetic discharge forcing, (2) a stochastic dike breach model dynamically coupled to a stochastic unsteady one-dimensional hydraulic model (MIKE1D) describing river flows, (3) a catalogue of pre-run probabilistic inundation maps (MIKE SHE) and (4) a damage and loss model (CAPRA). The methodology was applied using continuous simulations to a 45-km reach of the Upper Koshi River, Nepal, to investigate the changes in breach and flood hazards and subsequent risks after 2 and 5 years of probable river bed aggradation. The study results indicated an increase in annual average loss of 4% per year driven by changes in loss distribution in the most frequent loss return periods (20–500 years). The use of continuous simulations and dike breach model also provided a more robust estimation of risk metrics as compared to traditional binary treatment of flood defence and/or the direct association of flow with loss return periods. The results were helpful to illustrate the potential impacts of dynamic river morphology, dike failure and continuous simulation and their significance when devising flood risk study methodologies.     

生产堤溃决后漫滩水流的概化模型试验研究

黄河下游主槽两侧修建的生产堤通常仅能抵御中小洪水,用于保护滩区农田与村庄安全;当遭遇大洪水引发生产堤溃决时,漫滩洪水会严重威胁滩区群众的生命财产安全。当前研究溃堤洪水的传播过程与演进机理多采用数值模拟,而原型观测及模型试验成果十分有限。通过溃堤漫滩洪水的概化模型试验,模拟了生产堤溃决后主槽内的水位变化及不同程度漫滩洪水的传播过程。试验结果表明:(1)溃堤后漫滩水流以涨水波的形式向滩区迅速传播,主槽内水位具有先降低,然后维持稳定,再升高,最后趋于稳定的变化过程,且溃口上、下游水位变化速率不同;滩区水位总体表现为持续升高,最后趋于稳定的趋势。(2)漫滩洪水波的波前到达时间主要与滩区地形及距溃口的距离有关,波前首先以溃口为中心呈近似对称式椭圆形分布,而后转变为非对称分布;溃堤水流在滩区传播过程中伴有水跃发生,水跃发生的位置由距溃口较远处逐渐趋向溃口位置。(3)溃口流量与溃口内外水位差直接相关,呈先减小、然后维持稳定、再减小最后为0的变化特性。研究成果不仅可以提升对溃堤洪水在滩区演进规律的认识,丰富溃堤洪水动力学理论,还可为数学模型验证提供实测资料。     

The Influence of Floodplain Compartmentalization on Flood Risk within the Rhine–Meuse Delta

The present compartmentalization layout within the river polders in the Dutch Rhine–Meuse delta is the result of abandonment and partial removal of secondary dikes and the construction of modern infrastructure embankments. These structures will guide the flow of water in case the polder would inundate. Through the application of a 2-D flood propagation model in the polder Land van Maas en Waal this study explores whether restoration or removal of old dike remnants would contribute to a reduction of the risk and damage during an inundation. A systematic set of 28 flood scenarios was simulated and for each scenario an additional damage and risk assessment was carried out. It is concluded that a simple removal or total restoration will not reduce flood damage, but that this must be achieved by a strategic compartment plan. With such a plan old dike remnants and present embankments can be used to keep water away from vulnerable and valuable areas for as long as possible and to guide the floodwater to areas that are considered less vulnerable.     

Dealing with Uncertainty in Flood Risk Assessment of Dike Rings in the Netherlands

Current flood protection policies in the Netherlands are based on design water levels. This concept does not allow for a proper evaluation of costs and benefits of flood protection. Hence, research is being carried out on the introduction of a flood risk approach, which looks into both the probability of flooding and the consequences of flooding. This research is being carried out within the framework of a major project called the Floris project (FLOod RISk in the Netherlands). To assess the probability of flooding the Floris project distinguishes different failure modes for dikes and structures within the dike ring. Based on a probabilistic analysis of both loads and resistance the probability of failure is determined for each failure mode. Subsequently the probabilities of failure for different failure modes and dike sections are integrated into an estimate of the probability of flooding of the dike ring as a whole. In addition the Floris project looks into the different consequences of flooding, specifically the economic damages and the number of casualties to be expected in case of flooding of a particular dike ring. The paper describes the approach in the Floris project to assess the flood risk of dike rings in the Netherlands. One of the characteristics of the Floris project is the explicit attention to different types of uncertainties in assessing the probability of flooding. The paper discusses the different starting-points adopted and presents an outline on how the Floris project will deal with uncertainties in the analysis of weak spots in a dike ring as well as in the cost benefit analysis of flood alleviation measures.     

Fragility curves in operational dike reliability assessment

Operational flood prediction and flood risk assessment have become important components of flood management. One main aspect is the reliability assessment of the flood defence line during a flood event. This is generally performed by a comparison of the water level in the river to the crest height of the dikes whilst taking only hydraulic and geometric aspects into account. Additional information about material zones and material parameters are often available. However, these data are not in an appropriate shape when deriving the reliability of the flood defence line. This paper outlines how the fragility curve of a dike section is used to appropriately integrate geostatic and geohydraulic dike characteristics into operational flood management systems. Fragility curves are the result of a model-based reliability analysis and they summarise the dike performance depending on the water level. Failure modes such as piping or slope failure are included. In a case study, fragility curves for dike sections along the River Emscher (Germany) are determined. Their practical implementation in an operational flood management system shows an improvement in the operational reliability assessment due to the additional information taken into account. The use of fragility curves also supports the decision-making processes when emergency flood protection measures are required.     

滑坡堰塞湖溃决风险与过程研究进展

滑坡堰塞湖是山区常见的一种自然灾害,对其溃决风险与过程的科学认知和合理评估是应急处置的关键。外荷载作用下滑坡堰塞体的力学响应、滑坡堰塞湖渐进破坏机理与溃决洪水预测理论是滑坡堰塞湖风险评估研究领域的关键科学问题。本文围绕滑坡堰塞湖形成后的溃决风险与过程展开综述,从定性和定量的角度分别对堰塞湖危险性评价方法进行分析总结,从小尺度、大尺度和超重力场试验技术的角度总结了堰塞湖的溃决机理、溃决过程及其影响因素,从数学方法的角度对堰塞湖溃决洪水预测中经验公式法、简化和精细化数值模拟方法的进展进行总结评价。然而,国内外关于滑坡堰塞湖风险评估领域的研究仍处于起步阶段,空-天-地一体化监测技术、堰塞湖危险性评价中的不确定性问题、堰塞体材料冲蚀特性与溃决机理、堰塞湖溃决洪水精细化模拟等将是未来的重点研究方向。本综述可为堰塞湖防灾减灾和流域水工程风险管理提供有价值的参考。     

生产堤溃口展宽过程的概化模型试验研究

为研究生产堤溃口横向展宽过程的发展规律,以黄河下游生产堤土体为材料,开展概化模型试验,分析溃口处水深、流速、流量以及溃口宽度的变化。试验结果显示,溃口横向展宽的机理主要表现为水流冲刷堤身下层土体伴随上层悬臂土体发生绕轴崩塌;随着溃口展宽,堤前水深持续下降但下降速率逐渐减小,溃口流速呈先增大后减小的趋势,流速峰值约为1.1 m/s;随着主槽流量增加,溃口宽度发展至0.7 m时,溃口的水深、泄流流量、流速、展宽速率均有所增加。基于对溃口展宽的影响因素分析,提出溃口横向展宽速率的计算关系式,计算溃口展宽过程与实测值符合较好。研究结果不仅有助于生产堤展宽机理及发展规律的研究,还可为数学模型的建立与验证提供参考资料。     

生产堤溃口展宽过程的概化模型试验研究

为研究生产堤溃口横向展宽过程的发展规律,以黄河下游生产堤土体为材料,开展概化模型试验,分析溃口处水深、流速、流量以及溃口宽度的变化。试验结果显示,溃口横向展宽的机理主要表现为水流冲刷堤身下层土体伴随上层悬臂土体发生绕轴崩塌;随着溃口展宽,堤前水深持续下降但下降速率逐渐减小,溃口流速呈先增大后减小的趋势,流速峰值约为1.1 m/s;随着主槽流量增加,溃口宽度发展至0.7 m时,溃口的水深、泄流流量、流速、展宽速率均有所增加。基于对溃口展宽的影响因素分析,提出溃口横向展宽速率的计算关系式,计算溃口展宽过程与实测值符合较好。研究结果不仅有助于生产堤展宽机理及发展规律的研究,还可为数学模型的建立与验证提供参考资料。     

Assessment of Discharge through a Dike Breach and Simulation of Flood Wave Propagation

This paper presents a simple and fast method to calculate flow through a dike breach. The approach was based on two-dimensional numerical simulations of idealized dike breakages at straight river-sections. As a result, computation of discharge through a breach can be achieved by use of the new developed formula (denoted as dike break formula). Furthermore, a methodology that combines one-dimensional hydrodynamic modelling, the dike break formula and a simple GIS-based method to estimate inundation areas is described. This fast and easy-to-handle tool can be utilized for near real-time forecasting or evacuation decisions. Detailed predictions were made for a number of flood and dike break scenarios at the River Rhine to prove the accuracy of the new method compared with two-dimensional numerical models.     

Multiple scenario analyses forecasting the confounding impacts of sea level rise and tides from storm induced coastal flooding in the city of Shanghai,China

Shanghai is physically and socio-economically vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise because of its low elevation, flat topography, highly developed economy and highly-dense population. In this paper, two scenarios of sea level rise and storm surge flooding along the Shanghai coast are presented by forecasting 24 (year 2030) and 44 (year 2050) years into the future and are applied to a digital elevation model to illustrate the extent to which coastal areas are susceptible to levee breach and overtopping using previously developed inflow calculating and flood routing models. Further, the socio-economic impacts are examined by combining the inundation areas with land use and land cover change simulated using GeoCA-Urban software package. This analysis shows that levee breach inundation mainly occurs in the coastal zones and minimally intrudes inland with the conservative protection of dike systems designed. However, storm surge flooding at the possible maximum tide level could cause nearly total inundation of the landscape, and put approximately 24 million people in Shanghai under direct risk resulting from consequences of flooding (e.g. contamination of potable water supplies, failure of septic systems, etc.).     

A Probabilistic Modelling System for Assessing Flood Risks

In order to be economically viable, flood disaster mitigation should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk. This requires the estimation of the flood hazard (i.e. runoff and associated probability) and the consequences of flooding (i.e. property damage, damage to persons, etc.). Within the “German Research Network Natural Disasters” project, the working group on “Flood Risk Analysis” investigated the complete flood disaster chain from the triggering event down to its various consequences. The working group developed complex, spatially distributed models representing the relevant meteorological, hydrological, hydraulic, geo-technical, and socio-economic processes. In order to assess flood risk these complex deterministic models were complemented by a simple probabilistic model. The latter model consists of modules each representing one process of the flood disaster chain. Each module is a simple parameterisation of the corresponding more complex model. This ensures that the two approaches (simple probabilistic and complex deterministic) are compatible at all steps of the flood disaster chain. The simple stochastic approach allows a large number of simulation runs in a Monte Carlo framework thus providing the basis for a probabilistic risk assessment. Using the proposed model, the flood risk including an estimation of the flood damage was quantified for an example area at the river Rhine. Additionally, the important influence of upstream levee breaches on the flood risk at the lower reaches was assessed. The proposed model concept is useful for the integrated assessment of flood risks in flood prone areas, for cost-benefit assessment and risk-based design of flood protection measures and as a decision support tool for flood management.     

Out-burst flood (lahar) triggered by retrogressive landsliding, 18 March 2007 at Mt Ruapehu,New Zealand—a successful early warning

The summit crater of Mt Ruapehu volcano normally hosts a 15.4-ha warm lake, whose water has been repeatedly wholly or partly ejected by explosive and extrusive eruptions. Some of the larger eruptions have modified the lake outlet by burying it under unconsolidated tephra (volcanic ash and blocks), creating a dam-break flood hazard independently of the occurrence of an eruption. Eruptions in 1995 and 1996 followed this sequence; a break-out flood was anticipated and a warning system was installed to mitigate the risk from this event and subsequent lahars in the same catchment. The 11-year filling time allowed much planning and rehearsal. The warning system involved manual inspections of dam integrity, and seepage and lake-level monitoring to constrain the likely failure window, and telemetered instruments including a tripwire and geophones to detect breaching of the dam and propagation of the outbreak flood. The dam-collapse sequence, captured by a time-lapse camera, involved a series of retrogressing landslides initiated and accelerated by seepage forces and toe scour when the lake was 1.1 m below overtopping. The barrier failed in two phases on 18th March, 2007, beginning at 09:55 (NZST), with rapid retreat of one of the erosion scarps on the downstream slope of the eastern barrier, initiated by internal erosion. Headward retrogression of the scarp into the barrier formed an initial breach in the dam, after which increasing outflow led to erosion and undercutting of the wider downstream toe of the western barrier. A final, larger dam breach occurred between 11:21 and 11:22 as slope instability caused retrogressive failure of the remaining barrier. Five-hundred meters downstream of the dam, a large landslide was reactivated by toe scour during the flood, contributing about a million cubic meters of solid material to the volumetric bulking of the outflow, which reached the coast, 215 km away, 17 h later. The success of the planning and warning system allowed the whole event to occur with little damage to infrastructure and without causing injury.     

Landslide dam failure and flood hydraulics. Part I: experimental investigation

Landslide dam failure can trigger catastrophic flooding in the downstream. However, field observation of such flooding is rarely available, while laboratory experimental studies are sparse. The mechanism of landslide dam failure and the flood has so far remained insufficiently understood. Here, we present an experimental investigation of landslide dam failure and the flood. A total of 28 runs of experiments are carried out in a flume of 80 m × 1.2 m × 0.8 m, with differing inflow discharge, dam composition, dam geometry, and initial breach dimension. An array of twelve automatic water-level probes is deployed to measure the stage hydrographs along the flume, and the video recording of the dam failure processes facilitates an estimation of the widening of initial breach. Under the present experimental conditions with dams composed of homogeneous materials, landslide dam failure is primarily caused by erosion of overtopping flow, and lateral mass collapse is also considerable during the cause of breach widening. Cohesive clay may act to mitigate the seepage through the dam and thus its subsidence and appreciably modulate the dam failure process and the flood. However, the impacts of clay may be readily overwhelmed by a large inflow discharge and initial breach. Gravels in the dam may appreciably depress the rate of the dam failure process and thus modify the flood. The present work provides new experimental data set for testing mathematical models of the flood flow due to landslide dam failure.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Causes of catastrophic failure of Tam Pokhari moraine dam in the Mt. Everest region

The moraine dam of the Tam Pokhari glacial lake breached on 3 September 1998 and caused a catastrophic flood in the downstream areas. To learn from the event, a field survey was conducted. The survey team found that a landslide, which is considered to be responsible for the outburst flood, occurred in the northeast-facing slope of the moraine dam. The dam internal structure played a crucial role in forming a landslide that triggered the excess overflow and finally the breach of the dam. The internal structure of the dam was made of alternating layers of finer and coarser sediments inclining at 30° downstream and layers are truncated in the upslope direction by a huge pile of unconsolidated and structureless moraine materials. Since the upstream slope angle of the dam i.e., 40° is larger than the angle of repose i.e. 35° of sediments, the increased pore water pressure in the dam triggered a landslide. The rainfall and seismological activities of that particular day, which hit the record high, were crucial in triggering the failure. It is estimated that the dam’s north and northeast-facing slopes completely slid involving about 30,000 m³ of sediment mass of unconsolidated moraine materials above the shear plane. A slope stability analysis was also performed. The calculated safety factor was 0.85, and the calculated slip circle agreed with the shear plane marked in the dam. About 18 million cubic metres of water was swiftly released due to the sudden breach of the moraine dam.