全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究

科技部在"十三五"期间部署的国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项资助了"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。     

Responses of global terrestrial water use efficiency to climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration in the twenty-first century

Terrestrial ecosystems play a significant role in global carbon and water cycles because of the substantial amount of carbon assimilated through net primary production and large amount of water loss through evapotranspiration (ET). Using a process-based ecosystem model, we investigate the potential effects of climate change and rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration on global terrestrial ecosystem water use efficiency (WUE) during the twenty-first century. Future climate change would reduce global WUE by 16.3% under high-emission climate change scenario (A2) and 2.2% under low-emission climate scenario (B1) during 2010–2099. However, the combination of rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change would increase global WUE by 7.9% and 9.4% under A2 and B1 climate scenarios, respectively. This suggests that rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration could ameliorate climate change-induced WUE decline. Future WUE would increase significantly at the high-latitude regions but decrease at the low-latitude regions under combined changes in climate and atmospheric CO₂. The largest increase of WUE would occur in tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest under the combined A2 climate and atmospheric CO₂ scenario. More accurate prediction of WUE requires deeper understanding on the responses of ET to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and its interactions with climate.     

Quantifying annual land-cover change and vegetation greenness variation in a coastal ecosystem using dense time-series Landsat data

Land-cover change may affect water and carbon cycles when transitioning from one land-cover category to another (land-cover conversion, LCC) or when the characteristics of the land-cover type are altered without changing its overall category (land-cover modification, LCM). Given the increasing availability of time-series remotely sensed data for earth monitoring, there has been increased recognition of the importance of accounting for both LCC and LCM to study annual land-cover changes. In this study, we integrated 1,513 time-series Landsat images and a change-updating method to identify annual LCC and LCM during 1986–2015 in the coastal area of Zhejiang Province, China. The purpose was to quantify their contributions to land-cover changes and impacts on the amount of vegetation. The results show that LCC and LCM can be successfully distinguished with an overall accuracy of 90.0%. LCM accounted for 22% and 40.5% of the detected land-cover changes in reclaimed and inland areas, respectively, during 1986–2015. In the reclaimed area, LCC occurred mostly in muddy tidal flats, construction land, aquaculture ponds, and freshwater herbaceous land, whereas LCM occurred mostly in freshwater herbaceous land, Spartina alterniflora, and muddy tidal flats. In the inland area, both LCC and LCM were concentrated in forest and dryland. Overall, LCC had a mean magnitude of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) change similar to that of LCM. However, LCC had a positive effect and LCM had a negative effect on NDVI change in the reclaimed area. Both LCC and LCM in the inland area had negative impacts on vegetation greenness, but LCC resulted in larger NDVI change magnitude. Impacts of LCC and LCM on vegetation greenness were quantified for each land-cover type. This study provided a methodological framework to take both LCC and LCM into account when analyzing land-cover changes and quantified their effects on coastal ecosystem vegetation.     

Illegal land use change assessment using GIS and remote sensing to support sustainable land management strategies in Taiwan

Land use is changing at accelerated rates in Taiwan, and illegal land use change practices (ILP) are regularly observed within conservation areas. For this reason, we map high-potential areas of ILP within the Soil and water conservation zone (SWCZ) as an aid for effective land management and conducted an exploratory analysis of explanatory variables to evaluate their variability within ILP hot spots. We used variables relevant to hot spots to develop a logistic regression model and identified seven statistically significant variables. We re-applied the logistic regression approach to produce spatially explicit predictions of ILP. High probability areas are distributed along the coastal regions, covering 26% of the SWCZ, and their major drivers are related to accessibility and topography. The results from this research provide relevant information on the major drivers of ILP and high-potential areas, which can support officials in monitoring efforts for better planning and governance within the SWCZ.