水力类泥石流冲出规模模拟实验

在物源条件一定的情况下,通过实验模拟,研究水力类泥石流在不同流速、流量和纵比降组合条件下的沟道启动、揭底机理和运动特征。用Herschel-ulkley模型分析泥石流运动时的受力情况,整理实验数据获得侵蚀高度与纵比降的关系和流量与揭底距离的关系。     

沟床起动型泥石流预报研究

贵州省望谟县2011年6月6日暴发了特大山洪泥石流,其中暴雨中心所在的打易镇多处暴发泥石流。短历时强降雨激发了沟床起动类型的泥石流。本文通过对贵州望谟河流域群发泥石流的调查,得出该流域的66条沟中,22条沟无沟床起动类型泥石流暴发,25条沟暴发沟床起动类型泥石流,还有19条沟无法确定是否有沟床起动类型泥石流暴发。在前期工作基础上,提出了地质条件和降水条件因子的改进方法;并在前期工作的3大条件（地形条件、地质条件和降水条件）之间的关系基础上,由贵州望谟群发泥石流数据得出改进沟床起动类型泥石流的临界值,提出了泥石流的预报模型。本文模型在我国西南地区的泥石流验证中非常成功,为泥石流的预报提供了一个新方法。预报模型中的地形因子和地质因子还可以判断泥石流流域的暴发频率,为正确地判断泥石流流域的特征打下了基础。预报模型也可以估算泥石流的暴发规模,为定量地预测泥石流危害范围提供了依据。     

泥石流起动原型试验及预报方法探索

在分析国内外泥石流预报的基础上,结合泥石流形成机理研究取得的进展,提出了新型的暴雨泥石流预报方法。通过蒋家沟泥石流源地人工降雨试验,坡面泥石流形成与源地土体特征参数变化存在密切的关系。暴雨泥石流形成的过程可以描述为:降雨→土体含水量、土体结构和土体组成的变化→土体强度变化→斜坡稳定性变化→坡面泥石流形成→沟谷泥石流。建立起前后两者的关系,用降雨并结合中间关系方程分析泥石流发生的概率、时间及形成规模等参数,逐步提高泥石流预测预报精度。比传统的预报方法在精度上有很大的提高,使对误差进行估算成为可能。     

沟床起动型泥石流的10 min降雨预报模型

针对沟床起动型泥石流的诱发因素为高强度短历时的降雨,提出10 min降雨强度是这类泥石流暴发的关键。在1 h预报模型的基础上,基于云南蒋家沟的多年泥石流观测资料,修正了1 h预报模型的降雨参数,并得到了10 min降雨预报模型。10 min降雨预报模型在中国西部的其他流域,如云南浑水沟、贵州望谟县打易区域泥石流沟、四川三滩沟、四川雅安陆王沟和干溪沟、甘肃柳湾沟、甘肃马槽沟等流域的验证中,取得了较好的结果。10 min降雨预报模型是部分建立在泥石流的形成机理上的模型,并不是完全的统计模型,因此该模型也可以用于其他地区的沟床起动类型泥石流预报。     

坡面泥石流降雨预报模型

中国东部地区的地质灾害多以坡面泥石流的形式发生,预测预报坡面泥石流的发生对于开展防灾减灾具有重要意义。地形、地质和降雨三大条件是影响坡面泥石流发生的主要条件。通过选择同样地质条件和基本相同降雨条件的区域,研究影响坡面泥石流发生的地形条件,并得出可以用于坡面泥石流预报的坡面泥石流地形条件。结果表明:地形条件由坡面坡度因子、泥石流上部因子、泥石流侧面因子和临空面因子组成;较大的地形条件T对应较大的泥石流发生可能性;降雨条件由泥石流发生前的降雨量与1 h降雨量组成;得出了由地形条件T和降雨条件R组成的坡面泥石流预报条件P,P值越大,坡面泥石流发生的可能性越大。预报条件P可以预报坡面泥石流的发生。     

北京地区泥石流预警预报模型研究——以密云县石城镇为例

本文基于国内外目前比较成熟的泥石流预警预报理论,以北京市密云县石城镇示范区为例,结合北京地区开展过的区域地质灾害综合研究成果,建立了泥石流预警预报模型。     

汶川强震区泥石流起动模型试验分析

强震使大量松散堆积物堆积于高山峡谷内,由于持续降雨的作用,导致泥石流在汶川灾区频繁发生。降雨强度和物源与泥石流的起动有着密切联系,分析雨强和物源与泥石流起动的相关关系,可得不同雨强下,不同物源区泥石流起动的特征。通过对典型泥石流沟（映秀镇烧火坪侧沟,牛莲花心沟）进行野外样品采集,将两条泥石流沟进行对比室内试验。控制起动坡度,降雨强度与颗粒级配得出不同坡度下泥石流起动的表面流形成流量,起动流量。同时,与非强震区（西昌市琅环乡）的泥石流简单对比,得到强震区泥石流起动的临界条件及雨强,为泥石流的预测和治理提供相应的理论依据。通过大量的试验结果,泥石流起动首先会形成表面流,然后形成冲沟,随着物源区雨强的增加,最终形成大面积松散堆积物失稳,整体起动。泥石流起动与汇水区面积成一定关系。     

泥石流预测、预报技术方法的研究现状浅析

泥石流灾害的预测、预报是减灾防灾重要环节和基础。在充分研究泥石流形成条件基础上 ,正确预测、预报泥石流 ,是目前最大限度减少泥石流灾害损失所采取的主要方法。本文综合了当前泥石流预测预报的方法 ,分析了泥石流长期、中期、短期预报及泥石流预报的原理 ,不同时期泥石流预报的特征及存在的问题。我国是受泥石流危害最为严重的国家之一。每年由泥石流造成的直接经济损失约达几十亿元之多 ,减少泥石流灾害造成的损失主要取决于预测预报工作等。     

岩质滑坡的时间预报与水力启动模型

摘 要 岩质滑坡发生时间的适时超前预报是一个世界性难题,之所以长期不得其解,主要是缺乏对滑坡成生机理的明晰认识和未建立正确的量化模型。本文根据我国长江三峡工程库岸和西南山区积累的大量滑坡实例调查资料并参考国外的一些研究成果,排除了地形控制论与地层控制论观点,阐明了滑坡形成的必要条件是斜坡具有易滑结构;滑坡发生的充分条件是有一定强度的诱发因素作用。故而诱发因素的动态变化对滑坡发生的时间具决定意义。\r\n鉴于地下水诱发的岩质滑坡分布最广,为建立正确的水力启动模型,本文归纳了近代典型岩质滑坡的主要特征：（1）滑面是导水性差异最大的贯通面;（2）滑体长度大而厚度小,长厚比多在20左右;（3）滑坡前缘段先启动;（4）临滑前在前缘段有渗水、冒水或喷水现象;（5）出水宽度之和远小于前缘段总宽度。根据这些特征和水力学、水文地质学的成熟理论指出jennings（1970）等人提出的岩质斜坡稳定性模型存在下列问题：（1）未表明贯通面上岩体重力分布状况;（2）空隙水压力的分布特征与前述滑坡现象和水力学原理相悖;（3）未考虑通水率问题。然后,本文按顺向坡中的易滑超倾坡和椅状坡两个类型建立了斜坡稳定性模型和滑坡水力启动临界值（基本）计算公式。提出潜滑面的综合内摩擦角和通水率的确定方法：（1）滑坡反算;（2）对无水压滑坡滑面倾角和渗水边坡通水率进行观测统计;（3）剪切试验和简易水文地质试验;（4）物探方法。\r\n本文还讨论了新模型的实用意义和应用范围,并对解决这类复杂地质灾害问题的研究途径发表了作者的认识,强调了积累经验的重要性。     

某低频泥石流沟堆积物特征研究

低频泥石流是我国分布最广、数量最大、危害性极大的一类泥石流,因其特有的隐蔽性,它所造成的人员伤亡和财产损失均居各类泥石流之首。通过对新疆某水电站坝后一低频泥石流沟堆积物的研究,探讨了该类泥石流的发育特征和研究方法。由于低频泥石流形成周期较长,一般几十年甚至上百年,从而后期的流水、暴雨有足够的时间通过侵蚀、置换作用,在各期泥石流堆积物的顶部形成一个显著的“粗化层”,这为判定泥石流活动的期次、规模、发展趋势提供了重要的依据。     

Empirical Relationships for Debris Flows

The assessment of the debris flow hazard potential has to rely on semi-quantitative methods. Due to the complexity of the debris-flow process, numerical simulation models of debris flows are still limited with regard to practical applications. Thus, an overview is given of empirical relationships that can be used to estimate the most important parameters of debris-flow behavior. In a possible procedure, an assessment of a maximum debris-flow volume may be followed by estimates of the peak discharge, the mean flow velocity, the total travel distance, and the runout distance on the fan. The applicability of several empirical equations is compared with available field and laboratory data, and scaling considerations are used to discuss the variability of the parameters over a large range of values. Some recommendations are made with regard to the application of the presented relationships by practicing engineers, apart from advocating field reconnaissance and searching for historic events wherever possible.     

公路弃渣次生泥石流成灾机制及防护措施

公路弃渣泥石流物源集中,弃渣类型是泥石流成灾机制的重要影响因素。砂岩类弃渣中粘粒含量小,膨胀性较弱,弃渣体内水体排泄通畅,不利于孔隙水压的保持,相比灰岩类弃渣自身稳定性高;但在暴雨作用下,弃渣体内水分增加大于排泄,易造成弃渣体的崩滑起动,形成小型的泥石流,多形成稀性泥石流;灰岩类弃渣中粘粒的膨胀性较高,弃渣体孔隙水压易增大,渣土体的稳定性差,在暴雨作用下,弃渣中的土体易膨胀液化、滑移起动,多形成粘性泥石流;灰岩类弃渣泥石流规模大于砂岩类弃土。本文从弃渣物理性质指标、力学特征等研究泥石流成灾机制,并致力于将成果应用到公路弃土场设计和防灾减灾领域。     

波罗水电站库区泥石流发育分布特征研究

金沙江上游波罗水电站库区泥石流较发育,有不同类型泥石流沟130条。泥石流以暴雨沟谷型泥石流为主,多集中发育于岩性相对软弱的千枚岩、岩屑砂岩及板岩的相对宽谷段,多为黏性泥石流。流域内绝大部分泥石流处于衰退或停歇状态,现代活动泥石流规模不大,多发育于植被破坏较严重区域,对当地人民生命安全及波罗水电站水库的淤积等影响不大。     

An Overview of Formation Mechanism and Disaster Characteristics of Post-seismic Debris Flows Triggered by Subsequent Rainstorms in Wenchuan Earthquake Extremely Stricken Areas

The Wenchuan earthquake induced large amounts of debris flows and catastrophic incidents triggered by subsequent rainstorms occurred frequently in the past 6 rainy seasons, and thus resulted in serious casualties, huge economic loss and long-term impact. In this paper, post-seismic debris flows distributed in 10 Wenchuan earthquake extremely stricken counties were verified and debris flow database consisting of 609 debris flows was established based on detailed investigation organized by Land and Resources Department of Sichuan Province. Combined with database and related studies, the impact of Wenchuan earthquake on debris flows was analyzed. And then variation of formation conditions including rainfall threshold and landform condition was analyzed by contrasting pre-seismic and post-seismic debris flows. Followed are some typical viewpoints on initiation mechanism of post-seismic debris flows. In the end of this paper, characteristics of postseismic debris flows triggered by subsequent rainstorms were comprehensively summarized, such as regional group occurrence, high frequency, high viscosity, chain effect, huge dynamics, large scale and long duration. We hope this paper will be helpful in understanding the formation mechanism, disaster characteristics and prevention countermeasures of post-seismic debris flows in Wenchuan earthquake extremely stricken areas.     

A Comprehensive Approach to the Observation and Prevention of Debris Flows in China

This paper presents a classification of debris flows in China. These are classified into four related types according to their formation factors, material components, fluid properties, and movement patterns. Details of field observations of debris flow in China are also given. Several ways of using the parameters of debris flow are listed as well as their applied results. Some equations are formulated using velocity, discharge, and impact force. In addition, the paper presents a comprehensive approach to the prevention of debris flows.     

基于突变模型的泥石流危险度评价

基于突变理论模拟了乌东德地区泥石流的爆发。突变模型适于表达开放系统,假设危险度的影响因子是突变模型中的控制变量,利用初等突变模型对泥石流危险度进行多目标评估,根据当地的实际情况制定对应的评价标准。结果表明,模型在奇点处发生突变时泥石流爆发,该结果与传统的灰关联法计算结果基本一致,且与实际调查的情况较为吻合。     

On the Use of Seismic Detectors as Monitoring and Warning Systems for Debris Flows

Debris flows constitute a major threat forseveral urban settlements located on the fans ofmountain catchments and for other infrastructures thatinteract with these fans, particularly highways andmotorways. Often structural measures such as theconstruction and maintenance of deposition basins,check dams, channel linings are both too expensive andnot capable of completely guaranteeing the safety forinhabitants of villages and users of infrastructuresaffected by debris flows. Therefore the search offunctional, reliable and possibly not expensivewarning systems should be pursued to increase theavailable tools to face this often devastating kind ofphenomenon. In this paper the use of seismic detectorsfor the determination of a debris flow occurrence ina torrent before its arrival on the fan will bediscussed, together with their potential use asmonitoring and warning systems. In 1995 a set of fourseismic detectors was placed at a distance of aboutone hundred meters from each other along a straightchannel reach of a debris flow prone torrent locatedon the Eastern Italian Alps. The purpose, in a firstphase of the research, was mainly to verify whichinformation could be obtained through this type ofdevice on the occasion of a debris flow occurrence. On5 July 1995, 22 June and 8 July 1996 three debrisflows were recorded by this seismic network: the datathat have been collected will be presented andconveniently processed for their interpretation. Theresults that have been obtained show that the passageof a debris flow in a torrent can be clearlyidentified using seismic devices placed at a safedistance from the channel bed and that in some casesa velocity estimation of the flowing mass is alsopossible through the processing of the seismic data.     

陆相湖盆深水砂质碎屑流成因机制与分布特征——以鄂尔多斯盆地为例

国外深水沉积发展了50年,从浊流定义的普遍应用,到今天对鲍马序列、约克扇等经典模式持否定态度,深水沉积研究经历了一个推陈出新的过程。目前国外流行的砂质碎屑流理论是经典浊流理论的部分否定与新发展。本研究阐述国外砂质碎屑流的概念、实验、鉴别特征、沉积模式等最新认识,以运用砂质碎屑流理论解释鄂尔多斯盆地湖盆中部厚砂岩的成因机制为例,揭示我国陆相湖盆中心坡折带砂体分布特征与形成机制,为开拓陆相勘探领域提供理论支撑。     

宁夏贺兰山区郑官沟水石流发育特征与形成机理研究

通过对宁夏贺兰山区郑官沟泥石流的现场勘查与室内试验,总结了泥石流形成的地质环境条件,分析了泥石流的产流汇流机理和地形条件,并在此基础上计算了泥石流的运动学、动力学特征值,并对其危险度进行了定量评价。结果表明,郑官沟泥石流的平均容重为1.73 t/m3,应属于水石流;泥石流启动的临界坡度为tanθ ≥ 0.29,或=16°;泥石流流通区平均流速为4.08 m/s;泥石流流量为98.14 m3/s;一次泥石流最大冲出量为2.38×104 m3;郑官沟泥石流的危险度为0.397,属中危险度泥石流沟。