Seismic slip rates,potential subsurface rupture areas and seismic potential of the Vienna Basin Transfer Fault

The Vienna Basin Transfer Fault (VBTF) is a slow active fault with moderate seismicity (I _max~8–9, M _max~5.7) passing through the most vulnerable regions of Austria and Slovakia. We use different data to constrain the seismic potential of the VBTF including slip values computed from the seismic energy release during the 20th century, geological data on fault segmentation and a depth-extrapolated 3-D model of a generalized fault surface, which is used to define potential rupture zones. The seismic slip of the VBTF as a whole is in the range of 0.22–0.31 mm/year for a seismogenic fault thickness of 8 km. Seismic slip rates for individual segments vary from 0.00 to 0.77 mm/year. Comparing these data to geologically and GPS-derived slip velocities (>1 mm/year) proofs that the fault yields a significant seismic slip deficit. Segments of the fault with high seismic slip contrast from segments with no slip representing locked segments. Fault surfaces of segments within the seismogenic zone (4–14 km depth) vary from 55 to 400 km². Empirical scaling relations show that these segments are sufficiently large to explain both, earthquakes observed in the last centuries, and the 4th century Carnuntum earthquake, for which archeo-seismological data suggest a magnitude of M ≥ 6. Based on the combination of all data (incomplete earthquake catalog, seismic slip deficits, locked segments, potential rupture areas, indications of strong pre-catalog earthquakes) we argue, that the maximum credible earthquake for the VBTF is in the range M _max = 6.0–6.8, significantly larger than the magnitude of the strongest recorded events (M = 5.7).     

Research on the February 18, 1996 earthquake in the caves of Saint-Paul-de-Fenouillet area, (eastern Pyrenees,France)

Abstract

Eight caves have been investigated near Saint-Paul- de-Fenouillet after the earthquake of 5.2 magnitude of February 1996 which occurred in the eastern Pyrenees (France) and caused moderate damage at the ground surface. The earthquake has been associated with the movement of an E-W fault. The caves had not been visited since the earthquake. Some damage, mainly collapses of soda straws and small rocks, could be attributed to this earthquake. The most interesting cave in the epicentral area is the Paradet cave which is situated on a recently activated fault plane. In this cave, soda straw falls could be attributed to the earthquake, but other more ancient damage was also observed. Analysis of the azimuth of fallen speleothems, which are natural pendulums, may indicate the directions, and an estimation of their mechanical properties gives the threshold of the seismic ground motion amplitude responsible for their collapse, thus supplying information to calibrate damage due to past earthquakes. A statistical study indicates that the main direction of the collapsed soda straws is E–W. Numerical simulations confirm that soda straws are relatively strong objects that may break under certain conditions during earthquakes. © Elsevier, Paris     

Active normal faulting along the Mt. Morrone south-western slopes (central Apennines,Italy)

In the present work we analyse one of the active normal faults affecting the central Apennines, i.e. the Mt. Morrone normal fault system. This tectonic structure, which comprises two parallel, NW-SE trending fault segments, is considered as potentially responsible for earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 6.5 and its last activation probably occurred during the second century AD. Structural observations performed along the fault planes have allowed to define the mainly normal kinematics of the tectonic structure, fitting an approximately N 20° trending extensional deformation. Geological and geomorphological investigations performed along the whole Mt. Morrone south-western slopes permitted us to identify the displacement of alluvial fans, attributed to Middle and Late Pleistocene by means of tephro-stratigraphic analyses and geomorphological correlations with dated lacustrine sequences, along the western fault branch. This allowed to evaluate in 0.4 ± 0.07 mm/year the slip rate of this segment. On the other hand, the lack of synchronous landforms and/or deposits that can be correlated across the eastern fault segment prevented the definition of the slip rate related to this fault branch. Nevertheless, basing on a critical review of the available literature dealing with normal fault systems evolution, we hypothesised a total slip rate of the fault system in the range of 0.4 ± 0.07 to 0.8 ± 0.09 mm/year. Moreover, basing on the length at surface of the Mt. Morrone fault system (i.e. 22–23 km) we estimated the maximum expected magnitude of an earthquake that might originate along this tectonic structure in the order of 6.6–6.7.     

Analysis of soil effects and distribution of damage from the Pyrgos 1993 (Greece) earthquake

Summary On 26 March, 1993, a moderate magnitude earthquake (M _s=5.5) occurred at 3 km epicentral distance from the town of Pyrgos, in Southern Greece, causing extensive damage to masonry houses. To explain the variability of seismic intensity over the town and to propose measures against future seismic activity, a microzonation study was undertaken which combined geological, geophysical and geotechnical investigations, site specific analyses of seismic ground response and detailed recording of structural damage. The analytical predictions of ground response are correlated to soil conditions and then used to identify (micro-)zones of sites with similar seismic response. Furthermore, they are compared to quantitative estimates of damage distribution over the town. It is concluded that the peak ground acceleration, normalized against the input peak seismic acceleration, is a function of the local soil conditions as well as the seismic excitation characteristics. Hence, it cannot be defined uniquely at a site, without reference to the seismic excitation. However, the normalized peak ground velocity and the acceleration response spectra are mainly functions of the soil conditions and can be used as criteria for the practical definition of (micro-)zones. The distribution of damage in various parts of the town is at least partially attributable to local soil effects. The small epicentral distance of the earthquake, connected with the direction of the fault rupture, as well as the quality and techniques of construction, are additional factors that may have influenced the extent and distribution of damage.     

Surface ruptures induced by the devastating 1068 AD earthquake in the southern Arava valley, Dead Sea Rift, Israel

The Elat fault (a segment of the Dead Sea Transform) runs along the southern Arava valley (part of the Dead Sea Rift, Israel) forming a complex fault zone that displays a time-dependent seismic behaviour. Paleoseismic evidence shows that this fault zone has generated at least 15 earthquakes of magnitude larger than M 6 during the late Pleistocene and the Holocene. However, at present the Elat fault is one of the quietest segments of the Dead Sea Transform, lacking even microsesimicity. The last event detected in the southern Arava valley occurred in the Avrona playa and was strong enough to have deformed the playa and to change it from a closed basin with internal drainage into an open basin draining to the south.Paleoseismological, geophysical and archaeological evidences indicate that this event was the historical devastating earthquake, which occurred in 1068 AD in the eastern Mediterranean region. According to the present study this event was strong enough to rupture the surface, reactivate at least two fault branches of the Elat fault and vertically displace the surface and an early Islamic irrigation system by at least 1 m. In addition, the playa area was uplifted between 2.5 and 3 m along the eastern part of the Elat fault shear zone. Such values are compatible with an earthquake magnitude ranging between M 6.6 and 7. Since the average recurrence interval of strong earthquakes during the Holocene along the Elat fault is about 1.2 ± 0.3 ky and the last earthquake occurred more about 1000 years ago, the possibility of a very strong earthquake in this area in the future should be seriously considered in assessing seismic hazards.     

Recent activity and seismotectonics of the Eastern Pyrenees

Results from a recent earthquake in the Eastern Pyrenees are presented and the seismotectonics of the region is analyzed from the presently available data. On 26 September 1984 an earthquake (M_L = 4.4) took place in the area of the historical destructive earthquake of 1428. Several portable stations installed in the epicentral area to record aftershocks permitted of defining a precise location at 42°19.2′N, 2°10.2′E and 5 km depth. A maximum felt intensity of V (MSK) is obtained from macroseismic data. The epicentral location lies within a block bounded by E-W-trending structures and the focal solution shows right-lateral shearing with a NW-SE pressure axis.The seismicity in the Eastern Pyrenees shows a complex pattern which can be associated with both E-W fractures and NE-SW fault systems. Focal solutions of another two recent earthquakes of M_L ~ 4, with differences in horizontal pressure axis, are also discussed.     

Seismically mobilized moraines in the Tien Shan

Moraines studied in the Chon-Kyzylsuu River valley (southeastern Lake Issyk-Kul region, Tien Shan) were mobilized during historic and prehistoric large earthquakes. Seismic triggers of moraine mobilization included the M > 8 Kebin earthquake of 1911 and prehistoric events that produced rockslides, landslides, and multiple fault scarps. Rockslides in the Chon-Kyzylsuu basin are located in the hanging wall of the Terskey border thrust fault. The observed deformation results from at least four prehistoric earthquakes in the second half of the Holocene (early 20th century BC, early 11th century BC, middle 8th century BC, and early 2nd century BC), with local shaking intensity I > 7.     

Geological and archaeological evidence for post– Roman earthquake surface faulting at Cibyra,SW Turkey

Abstract

The NE-SW-trending Burdur–Fethiye fault zone is one of the major active fault zones of southwestern Turkey and the ancient city of Cibyra is located on this zone. Segments of the Burdur–Fethiye fault zone have ruptured in the historical period and during the 20th century. A detailed investigation in the ancient city of Cibyra showed the presence of faults sinistrally offset sitting rows of the stadium up to 50 cm. In addition, there are broken corners of blocks, collapsed walls, broken columns, and tilted and toppled blocks in existing major buildings in the city centre. Field observations showed that fractures and associated damage at Cibyra Produced by a post-Roman earthquake, possibly during the 417-A.D.-earthquake which had an intensity of 9 on the MSK scale. © 2001 Éditions scientifiques et médicales Elsevier SAS.     

The record of historic earthquakes in lake sediments of Central Switzerland

Deformation structures in lake sediments in Central Switzerland can be attributed to strong historic earthquakes. The type and spatial distribution of the deformation structures reflect the historically documented macroseismic intensities thus providing a useful calibration tool for paleoseismic investigations in prehistoric lake sediments.The Swiss historical earthquake catalogue shows four moderate to strong earthquakes with moment magnitudes of M_w=5.7 to M_w=6.9 and epicentral intensities of I₀=VII to I₀=IX that affected the area of Central Switzerland during the last 1000 years. These are the 1964 Alpnach, 1774 Altdorf, 1601 Unterwalden, and 1356 Basel earthquakes. In order to understand the effect of these earthquakes on lacustrine sediments, four lakes in Central Switzerland (Sarner See, Lungerer See, Baldegger See, and Seelisberg Seeli) were investigated using high-resolution seismic data and sediment cores. The sediments consist of organic- and carbonate-rich clayey to sandy silts that display fine bedding on the centimeter to millimeter scale. The sediments are dated by historic climate and environmental records, ¹³⁷Cs activity, and radiocarbon ages. Deformation structures occur within distinct zones and include large-scale slumps and rockfalls, as well as small-scale features like disturbed and contorted lamination and liquefaction structures. These deformations are attributed to three of the abovementioned earthquakes. The spatial distribution of deformation structures in the different lakes clearly reflects the historical macroseismic dataset: Lake sediments are only affected if they are situated within an area that underwent groundshaking not smaller than intensity VI to VII. We estimate earthquake size by relating the epicentral distance of the farthest liquefaction structure to earthquake magnitude. This relationship is in agreement with earthquake size estimations based on the historical dataset.     

The catastrophic 1883 earthquake at the island of Ischia (southern Italy): macroseismic data and the role of geological conditions

This article presents the results of a detailed study of the effects of the 1883 earthquake, which occurred at the island of Ischia (Gulf of Naples) and produced the total destruction of buildings in the epicentral area (Casamicciola town). Despite the moderate magnitude, this event was characterised by very high intensities (I _max = XI degree MCS) mainly due to the shallow depth of the source. The study of the earthquake shows that the intensities, which decreased rapidly with distance, were affected by source directivity, according to the causative fault geometry and tectonic structures, while local amplification of damage was observed where soft soils outcrop. The attenuation of seismic intensity with distance was evaluated using the well-known relation of intensity versus epicentral distance (Blake’s method). The diverse gradients of attenuation, observed in different directions, were ascribed to the various geological features of the shallow crust of the island. In order to evaluate the role of geology in the damage level, we computed different attenuation models for stiff and soft soils outcropping on the island. A systematic local amplification of about 1 MCS degree associated to the presence of reworked tuffs was obtained. This study also shows the influence of geological conditions on the evaluation of macroseismic data and supplies useful elements to derive a predictive map of potential site effects.     

公元600年秦陇地震发震构造分析及考证研究

据史料记载,公元600年秦陇地区发生了一次大地震。关于此次地震的震中位置、震级、震中烈度和发震构造长期存在争议。根据在陇县固关一带发现的地震崩塌体,同时结合史料考证、卫星影像判读、野外调查、探槽开挖、年龄测试等手段,研究认为:公元600年秦陇地震的发震构造为六盘山东麓断裂南段固关段;秦陇地震震中在陇县固关镇一带,震级为6$ {}^{3}\!\!\diagup\!\!{}_{4}\; $级,震中烈度为Ⅸ度。该地震的研究对于六盘山地区地震危险性评估和青藏块体北东向扩展的动力学过程理解有重要意义。      

Are the seismological and geological observations of the Al Hoceima (Morocco, Rif) 2004 earthquake (M = 6.3) contradictory?

Seismic hazard is associated with recent and present fault activity in mountain ranges. In the Betic-Rif alpine mountain chain, tectonic activity started in the Cretaceous, and topographic uplift continues since Tortonian times as a consequence of the NW-SE oblique convergence between Africa and Eurasia. The deformation is active and produces seismicity that sometimes has catastrophic consequences. The Al Hoceima earthquake (February 24, 2004), considered one of the largest earthquakes ever recorded instrumentally in the westernmost Mediterranean (M = 6.3), caused great damage in the region. Seismological studies agree that the main shock was situated on land, at the limit between the External and Internal Zones of the Rif, at a depth of 10-14 km. The focal mechanism points to a strike-slip solution with a NW-SE oriented P axis, quite similar to those of the significant 1994 earthquake swarm located to the north. The epicenter aftershocks distribution would signal the presence of a N-S oriented sinistral fault, activated by the NW-SE regional compression associated to plate boundary convergence. In this setting, the seismogenic fault ruptures related to these seismic events are expected to have reached the Earth's surface. However, detailed field work carried out 1 month after the earthquake does not evidence any N-S strike-slip coseismic fault in the epicentral area. The main observed effects were landslides, damages to constructions, and locally open cracks indicating an unexpected NW-SE extension. Scarce N-S faults are normal, the main ones being located several kilometers away from the epicentral area. To explain this apparent contradiction between geological and seismological observations, we propose a decoupled tectonic model with crustal detachments that separate a deep brittle crust from an upper crust undergoing uplift, and the development of large folds and normal faults. This geological setting, common to internal zones of cordilleras, may need to be taken into account in future paleoseismicity studies and in the assessment of seismic hazard.     

Simultaneous inversion of the aftershock data of the 1993 Killari earthquake in Peninsular India and its seismotectonic implications

The aftershock sequence of the September 30th, 1993 Killari earthquake in the Latur district of Maharashtra state, India, recorded by 41 temporary seismograph stations are used for estimating 3-D velocity structure in the epicentral area. The local earthquake tomography (LET) method of Thurber (1983) is used. About 1500P and 1200S wave travel-times are inverted. TheP andS wave velocities as well asV _P/V_Sratio vary more rapidly in the vertical as well as in the horizontal directions in the source region compared to the adjacent areas. The main shock hypocentre is located at the junction of a high velocity and a low velocity zone, representing a fault zone at 6–7 km depth. The estimated average errors ofP velocity andV _P/V_Sratio are ±0.07 km/s and ±0.016, respectively. The best resolution ofP and S-wave velocities is obtained in the aftershock zone. The 3-D velocity structure and precise locations of the aftershocks suggest a ‘stationary concept’ of the Killari earthquake sequence.     

Seismo-Tectonic Characteristics of the North Anatolian Fault Zone Between Akyazi and Duzce (Bolu,Turkey)

The active North Anatolian fault zone (NAFZ) presents very complex seismotectonic activity. The occurrence of the Abant earthquake in 1957 (Ms = 7.1) and the Mudurnu earthquake in 1967 (Ms = 6.8) are only two examples of several seismic events associated with intense tectonic activity of the NAFZ. Statistical analyses of earthquakes in an area extending between 30° 30′ to 31° 30' E Long. and 40° 15′ to 41° 00′ N Lat. reveal that epicenters generally were shallow. However, a few deep epicenters also were located, some of which reached a depth of 30 km. The epicenters were found to concentrate in a zone lying between the Duzce and Akyazi Plain to the north of Almacik Mountain and in the Adapazari Plain. The Northern Anatolian fault displays an en echelon character in the area, except for the eastern part, where it extends as a single segment. The en echelon character of the NAFZ is interpreted as a structure distributing the potential energy and consequently reducing the intensity of earthquakes, giving rise to micro-earthquakes of magnitudes less than 4.2.     

Interpretation of intensity attenuation relation of 1905 Kangra earthquake with epicentral distance and magnitude in the Northwest Himalayan region

Seismic intensity information of historical earthquake of NW Himalayas has been utilized for evaluating the attenuation of the intensity with the epicentral distance. Purposefully, the observed intensity of big historical earthquake may implicitly incorporate some site effects arising due to the near surface geology or deposited soil. The isoseismal map of the 1905 Kangra earthquake yields an area of perceptibility defined by the intensity VII (RF Scale), which is mainly elongated in the NNW-SSE direction. However, the higher isoseismals of intensity VIII and IX are more symmetrical and elongated in the SE direction. These isoseismals are more compressed in the northeast and northwest direction indicating fast attenuation characteristics, which may be either due to the presence of any transverse geotectonic feature or change in lithology. In the present study the regression relation has been derived to incorporate the attenuation of intensity with variable magnitudes at different epicentral distances. The derived attenuation relation is useful for assessing damage of a potential future earthquake (earthquake scenario-based planning purposes) for the Kangra region, Northwest Himalaya. The derived relation is mentioned below:

Analysis on the disaster mechanism of rock collapse of M4.4 reservoir-induced earthquake on January 17, 2010, at Dongjing reservoir in Guizhou Province,China

Dongjing reservoir with storage capacity of 955 million m³ and 150 m dam height had been set up in Guizhou province, southeastern China on May in 2005. After filling with water in August 20, 2009, the reservoir-induced earthquake in 20 km took place first in September 2009 at the 440 m water level. When the water level changes, the number of earthquakes is increased rapidly. On January 17, 2010, the largest M 4.4 earthquake with depth of 7 km has happen and month frequency achieved 21 events at the highest water level. M 4.4 earthquake caused rock collapse with the disaster of killed six people and nine injure. After our investigation and study, the reason of higher epicentral intensity of earthquake was the surface effect of near-field elastic wave transmission. The disaster of rock falls certainly depended on the very very shallow earthquake, the height of valley and fault. Comparing as same magnitude of natural earthquake, very shallow earthquake increased 1–2° of epicentral intensity I₀, more than twice amplitude of S-wave at 200 m height of valley and the largest displacement on fault. The superposition of three factors has increased the epicentral intensity of earthquake and directly caused rock collapse with the disaster of killed six people and nine injure.     

Characteristics of earthquake-induced landslides in a heavy snowfall region—landslides triggered by the northern Nagano prefecture earthquake, March 12, 2011, Japan

The northern Nagano Prefecture earthquake, M_JMA?6.7 (Mw?6.2), which is inferred to have been triggered by the huge (Mw?9.0) March 11, 2011 Tohoku earthquake, occurred on March 12, 2011, in northern Nagano Prefecture, an area in Japan famous for heavy snowfall. A large number of landslides were triggered by the 12 March earthquake, and it caused building damage in the area of the epicenter. To clarify characteristics of the distribution and dynamic behavior of these landslides, we analyzed aerial photographs and conducted field surveys in and around the epicentral area. Large-scale landslides with long distance run-outs are a remarkable characteristic of the landslides induced by this earthquake. The long travel distance is considered to be related to the thick snowpack at the time the earthquake occurred. Moderate scale deep-seated landslides and shallow landslides were also observed in the study area. Based on an analysis of landslides with the active fault on which the earthquake is believed to have occurred, most of these landslides were distributed on the hanging wall of the active fault, within a distance of 12?km from the fault.     

Seismicity pattern in north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region: In search of precursor for the 26 December 2004 earthquake

We analyse the seismicity pattern including b-value in the north Sumatra-Great Nicobar region from 1976 to 2004. The analysis suggests that there were a number of significant, intermediate and short-term precursors before the magnitude 7.6 earthquake of 2 November 2002. However, they were not found to be so prominent prior to the magnitude 9.0 earthquake of 26 December 2004 though downward migration of activity and a 50-day short-term quiescence was observed before the event. The various precursors identified include post-seismic and intermediate-term quiescence of 13 and 10 years respectively, between the 1976 (magnitude 6.3) and 2002 earthquakes with two years (1990–1991) of increase in background seismicity; renewed seismicity, downward migration of seismic activity and foreshocks in 2002, just before the mainshock. Spatial variation in b-value with time indicates precursory changes in the form of high b-value zone near the epicenter preceding the mainshocks of 2004 and 2002 and temporal rise in b-value in the epicentral area before the 2002 earthquake.     

Tectonic stress field in the epicentral zone of the Latur earthquake of 1993

In situ stress measurements by hydraulic fracturing were carried out in the 617 m deep borehole specially drilled in the epicentral zone of the 1993 Latur earthquake for the purpose of research. The stress measurements carried out at 592 m depth in this borehole are the deepest of all such measurements made so far in the Indian shield. The maximum and minimum principal horizontal stresses (S _H max andS _h min) have been derived from the hydrofracture data using the classical method. TheS _{H max} andS _h min are found to be 16.5 and 9.6 MPa at 373 m depth, and 25.0 and 14.1 MPa at 592 m depth, indicating that the vertical gradients ofS _hmax andS _hmin in the epicentral zone are 39 MPa/km and 21 MPa/km respectively. The principal horizontal stresses in the epicentral zone are comparable with those at Hyderabad and 30% higher than in most other comparable intra-continental regions. Analysis of the results indicate that the stresses in the focal region of the 1993 Latur earthquake have not undergone any significant change following its occurrence and this is in agreement with a similar inference drawn from the seismic data analysis. It appears that the Latur earthquake was caused due to rupturing of the overpressured fault segment at the base of the seismogenic zone.